By scandalous, of course I mean stupid. Earlier in the offseason I made 103 predictions that won’t happen in 2011. That was pure nonsense whereas this is pure speculation. Huge difference. Some of these could actually come true. And they’re not all optimistic.
11. Brett Jackson will see the majors by June. I don’t know why. I only added this at the last minute because I forgot I said there would be 11 of these things and just did ten.
10. Starlin Castro will hit 25 homeruns this year. He leads the team in homers this spring with 4. That means nothing, but it supports this optimism, so I referenced it. But I’m still rather confident about this prediction. I love his swing. He seems to put the barrel of the bat on the ball with ridiculous consistency. He’s going to get a boatload of at-bats thanks to playing every day and taking very few walks. Combine all those factors, and I expect to see a lofty (but not gaudy) homerun total for the kid.
9. Andrew Cashner will flirt with 20 losses. This isn’t to say Cashner will have a terrible season. I think he’ll actually pitch reasonably well. But I think we’re going to see him consistently yield big innings in a lot of games. Not so much that he’ll get sent down or into the bullpen. Three runs here. Four runs there. And with an offense that could really struggle, I wouldn’t be surprised if Cashner became the hard luck starter who just gets even less run support than the others.
8. Mike Quade will keep his job. Jim Hendry won’t. Tom Ricketts has yet to make any severe, sweeping changes to the Cubs organization. He has tinkered with things, run some promotions, and planted a noodle here and a Toyota sign there. But the face of the team itself has undergone only minor changes from season to season. After 2009, the biggest change was dealing Milton Bradley. After 2010, it was lifting the interim tag off of Mike Quade (even that was the most minor change the Cubs could make, keeping the guy who was already there). Should the Cubs fail to contend, I don’t expect wholesale changes. I do expect one change: Jim Hendry will lose his job. Quade will get at least another half season to hope the ship turns around with him on it.
7. No one on the Cubs will steal 20 bases. I’ll take it a step further and guess that no two Cubs will combine to steal 20 bases. As berselius pointed out earlier, Quade has backed off statements that the Cubs will be aggressive in the base-stealing department. By mid-May, I’m betting he’ll back way off.
6. Geovany Soto will drive in more than 100 runs. He’ll hit higher in the order. He’ll play more. He’ll get a little luckier. He might even walk a bit less since he won’t be hitting in front of the pitcher. Or Darwin Barney. Or Alfonso Soriano. I don’t expect the walk total to go way down, but I do expect him to benefit from better run-producing conditions than he’s seen in previous years.
5. Kerry Wood will avoid the DL. This might be the boldest prediction on here, but something tells me the guy has learned a little bit about keeping himself healthy and avoiding fluke nagging injuries like the blister outbreak of 2008. Also he pitches in the bullpen, so he’s not half the injury target he was during his years as a starter.
4. Sean Marshall will have an off year. The guy has been phenomenal in a setup/LOOGY role the past couple seasons. It just seems like he’s due to underwhelm. In 2010 he posted a 2.28 FIP and a 2.50 xFIP to go with his 2.65 ERA. I hope to DeRosa that his 2011 numbers are closer to last year’s than to his career FIP of 4.38. All the projections seem to think he’ll have a worse year than last but still better than any year prior to that. I’m bracing for something worse. Not awful, but not Superman.
3. Alfonso Soriano will have a quietly impressive season. Soriano is going to strike out a lot. He’ll make too many errors. But he’s going to be spending a lot of time in the 7th slot in the batting order. Even if he does go on a couple of his patented homerun sprees, he’s probably not going to bat anywhere higher than 5th and even that will be rare. Just don’t be surprised if Soriano beats his projections without anyone calling much attention to it.
2. Jeff Baker will start well over 100 games. Darwin Barney may be the mini-Marlon, but in terms of playing time I think he’s going to be the anti-Marlon Byrd. It’s a tough one to predict, because the Cubs figure to struggle on offense and defense. But of all the defensive upgrades Mike Quade can make, Barney-for-Baker seems like a pretty small one. My gut tells me Jeff Baker will have more success this year than ever against righties, and he’ll wind up securing the everyday job at 2B because of his improved bat.
1. The Cubs will finish in 2nd place. This is probably even wronger than everything else in this post, but I think it can happen. For what it’s worth, I expect it to be a very distant second to the Reds. It won’t happen without some really good luck for the Cubs and some terrible (even injurious) luck to the Cardinals and Brewers. I’m not even close to ready to say “It’s Gonna Happen,” but it could.
Comments
False.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]False.[/quote](dying laughing)
Way to introduce the “declare the whole post false” meme. It took awhile to migrate that one over.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]False.[/quote]It would be nice if you’d do something on this site other than nitpick.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]It would be nice if you’d do something on this site other than nitpick.[/quote]Stop it. That’s a human being.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Stop it. That’s a human being.[/quote]
Correct.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
12. Matt Garza will give up 158 homeruns.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]12. Matt Garza will give up 158 homeruns.[/quote]
I can’t argue with you today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Confidence Pool With AC’s Predictions:
Brett Jackson in the Majors – 10
Starlin Castro 25 Home Runs – 5
Cashner Flirting With 20 Losses – 1
Quade Stays, Hendry Goes – 8
No One Steals 20 Bases – 11
Soto Drives in 100 – 6
Kerry Avoids the DL – 3
Sean Marshall Off Year – 9
Soriano Quietly Impresses – 7
Jeff Baker Starts Over 100 Games – 4
Cubs Finish in 2nd – 2
If Cashner nears 15 losses I think the Cubs save face and send him to AAA, regardless of whether or not he’s actually pitching that poorly. I don’t think Soto will get enough chances to drive in 100, but I’m holding onto the glimmer of hope that this is the year the Cubs realize he is their top offensive threat. And I don’t think there’s a chance anyone reaches 20 steals.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Confidence Pool With AC’s Predictions:
Brett Jackson in the Majors – 10
Starlin Castro 25 Home Runs – 5
Cashner Flirting With 20 Losses – 1
Quade Stays, Hendry Goes – 8
No One Steals 20 Bases – 11
Soto Drives in 100 – 6
Kerry Avoids the DL – 3
Sean Marshall Off Year – 9
Soriano Quietly Impresses – 7
Jeff Baker Starts Over 100 Games – 4
Cubs Finish in 2nd – 2
If Cashner nears 15 losses I think the Cubs save face and send him to AAA, regardless of whether or not he’s actually pitching that poorly. I don’t think Soto will get enough chances to drive in 100, but I’m holding onto the glimmer of hope that this is the year the Cubs realize he is their top offensive threat. And I don’t think there’s a chance anyone reaches 20 steals.[/quote]
This one goes to eleven…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
WTF, that image changed right as I pasted it.
[quote name=AndCounting]12. Matt Garza will give up 158 homeruns.[/quote]
13. Tom Gorzelanny will give up 15.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
The Brett Jackson prediction…are we assuming that one of the primary OFs get dealt before June?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]The Brett Jackson prediction…are we assuming that one of the primary OFs get dealt before June?[/quote]Total random guess. I wasn’t kidding when I said I forgot about 11. I posted it with ten and edited in Bert.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]If Cashner nears 15 losses I think the Cubs save face and send him to AAA, regardless of whether or not he’s actually pitching that poorly. I don’t think Soto will get enough chances to drive in 100, but I’m holding onto the glimmer of hope that this is the year the Cubs realize he is their top offensive threat. And I don’t think there’s a chance anyone reaches 20 steals.[/quote]Do the Cubs have a AAA affiliate in Japan I was not aware of?
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Total random guess. I wasn’t kidding when I said I forgot about 11. I posted it with ten and edited in Bert.[/quote]
I think your guess is very educated. It’d be a shame if he were brought up just to be the fifth wheel though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
By the beard of DeRosa…10 hits in 3 innings?
7 Ks though, that’s some extreme pitching there.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Matt Garza is bad at sports
dylanjQuote Reply
From what Len and Keith have said, AZ has hit a zillion bloop hits in this game. Aside from the big HR this is pretty much just a bad BABIP day for him.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]From what Len and Keith have said, AZ has hit a zillion bloop hits in this game. Aside from the big HR this is pretty much just a bad BABIP day for him.[/quote]
Sure sounds that way. Still, 7 Ks…that’s pretty impressive.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]From what Len and Keith have said, AZ has hit a zillion bloop hits in this game. Aside from the big HR this is pretty much just a bad BABIP day for him.[/quote]It’s really strange hearing Len broadcast so many games on the radio. I think that Hughes/Moreland chemistry might take a bit longer than expected to develop in the regular season.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]It’s really strange hearing Len broadcast so many games on the radio. I think that Hughes/Moreland chemistry might take a bit longer than expected to develop in the regular season.[/quote]
FWIW almost all of the Len broadcasts have been with the cubs AA radio guy. I think there’s only been one or two Len and Zonk pairings.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Comment and a question:
1) I have a mancrush on Brett Jackson.
2) If Garza sucks, does that spell the end for Hendry? He gave up a LOT for MG, and if he doesn’t work out, doesn’t that kind of mean the end?
I’ll hang up and listen for my answer.
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
Pena ———> 3 run double
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Steve Swisher]Comment and a question:
1) I have a mancrush on Brett Jackson.
2) If Garza sucks, does that spell the end for Hendry? He gave up a LOT for MG, and if he doesn’t work out, doesn’t that kind of mean the end?
I’ll hang up and listen for my answer.[/quote]
I don’t think that will matter that much for what it’s worth. If Hendry’s gone it will be an overall team thing rather than a particular player.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Pena ———> 3 run double[/quote]
Pena —-> dinner
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Peena with the bases clearing double against a LHP on a 0-2 count.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
(dying laughing), I had forgotten that the DBacks traded for Joe Saunders. If ever there was a pitcher that was incredibly overrated by the W-L statistic, it is him.
BerseliusQuote Reply
dj, did you want in on Discredited Fantasy Baseball?
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS- I would but im already in three leagues. next year
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Steve Swisher]Comment and a question:
1) I have a mancrush on Brett Jackson.
2) If Garza sucks, does that spell the end for Hendry? He gave up a LOT for MG, and if he doesn’t work out, doesn’t that kind of mean the end?
I’ll hang up and listen for my answer.[/quote]I think Garza would have to have some serious issues to bring down Hendry on his own. But if he struggles and the Cubs have a year similar to last year, I don’t see how Hendry can keep his job. Personally, I suspect Ricketts will get rid of Hendry at the end of the year if the Cubs don’t at least contend for the playoffs whether Garza succeeds or not.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Maybe — I think Ricketts realizes the team is hamstrung because of their budget (and yes, clearly he realizes who gave out those huge contracts). But maybe he wants to give Hendry a chance to work it out with the money off the books?
I guess I’m just looking at the MG trade as a huge deal in my own mind. I mean, you can make a case for Hendry, and you can make a case against him. So let’s say the good (Derrek Lee, Ramirez, Lofton) and the bad (Bradley, Samardzija’s contract, Soriano) equal out to zero. This trade was a huge one, and they gave up a shitload of talent (I think losing Chirinos will be huge). For it to be all for a pitcher who sucks (if Garza does suck) will be pretty damning.
But in Hendry’s favor, the farm system has been producing much better players lately.
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t think that will matter that much for what it’s worth. If Hendry’s gone it will be an overall team thing rather than a particular player.[/quote]
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
GameDay makes it look like Garza threw a pitch about two feet above Juan Miranda’s head in that last sequence.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I would just like to use the word “huge” a few more times. Thanks.
[quote name=Steve Swisher]Maybe — I think Ricketts realizes the team is hamstrung because of their budget (and yes, clearly he realizes who gave out those huge contracts). But maybe he wants to give Hendry a chance to work it out with the money off the books?
I guess I’m just looking at the MG trade as a huge deal in my own mind. I mean, you can make a case for Hendry, and you can make a case against him. So let’s say the good (Derrek Lee, Ramirez, Lofton) and the bad (Bradley, Samardzija’s contract, Soriano) equal out to zero. This trade was a huge one, and they gave up a shitload of talent (I think losing Chirinos will be huge). For it to be all for a pitcher who sucks (if Garza does suck) will be pretty damning.
But in Hendry’s favor, the farm system has been producing much better players lately.[/quote]
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
Good stuff, Adam. I could see a lot of these happening. The 20 losses for Cashner is hard to envision and I’m not sure we want to. If he loses 20, the Cubs as a team probably lose upwards of 100 or more. So I’m hoping you’re not right about that one. It’s going to be fun to watch Castro. He’s shown more power this spring, but it’s Arizona and the ball flies off the bat there. As you pointed out, he leads the team in home runs, which to be honest is kind of scary when he has just 4 of them. A good April in the power department and I could see him reaching 20. I’d say it’s unlikely, but here’s to hoping. If he does hit 20, the Cubs have a superstar on their hands.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Good stuff, Adam. I could see a lot of these happening. The 20 losses for Cashner is hard to envision and I’m not sure we want to. If he loses 20, the Cubs as a team probably lose upwards of 100 or more. So I’m hoping you’re not right about that one. It’s going to be fun to watch Castro. He’s shown more power this spring, but it’s Arizona and the ball flies off the bat there. As you pointed out, he leads the team in home runs, which to be honest is kind of scary when he has just 4 of them. A good April in the power department and I could see him reaching 20. I’d say it’s unlikely, but here’s to hoping. If he does hit 20, the Cubs have a superstar on their hands.[/quote]
20 losses, or being demoted while on the way to it, could also mean that Cashner goes along the Felix Pie route.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Steve Swisher]I guess I’m just looking at the MG trade as a huge deal in my own mind. I mean, you can make a case for Hendry, and you can make a case against him. So let’s say the good (Derrek Lee, Ramirez, Lofton) and the bad (Bradley, Samardzija’s contract, Soriano) equal out to zero. This trade was a huge one, and they gave up a shitload of talent (I think losing Chirinos will be huge). For it to be all for a pitcher who sucks (if Garza does suck) will be pretty damning.[/quote]I agree, it’s a huge, huge trade. (dying laughing) But I also think, given the length of time they’re committed to Garza, they won’t judge the trade on this season alone.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Garza threw 91 pitches in 3+ innings
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Steve Swisher]Maybe — I think Ricketts realizes the team is hamstrung because of their budget (and yes, clearly he realizes who gave out those huge contracts). But maybe he wants to give Hendry a chance to work it out with the money off the books?
I guess I’m just looking at the MG trade as a huge deal in my own mind. I mean, you can make a case for Hendry, and you can make a case against him. So let’s say the good (Derrek Lee, Ramirez, Lofton) and the bad (Bradley, Samardzija’s contract, Soriano) equal out to zero. This trade was a huge one, and they gave up a shitload of talent (I think losing Chirinos will be huge). For it to be all for a pitcher who sucks (if Garza does suck) will be pretty damning.
But in Hendry’s favor, the farm system has been producing much better players lately.[/quote]I tend to agree with you here. I don’t think the team is going to lose because of Garza or anything like that, but if it turns out Garza’s best days are past him then I think he gets fired. Hendry invested way too much in a pitcher who isn’t great and just better than average.
For what it’s worth, I think both Hendry and Quade are gone after this season in the roles they currently have. I think Hendry gets promoted to something else and I’ve thought that for a long time. He’s been with the Cubs organization a long time now. I think he’s a part of the organization for a long time yet, but his days as GM are numbered. The bad thing is that I also think Hendry will be the one hiring his replacement.
mb21Quote Reply
I think Hendry has been set up as the scapegoat for this season. If they don’t contend this year, I can’t envision how Ricketts can justify keeping Hendry to the fan base. Of course, I didn’t think he would be able to justify it last year and here we are.
There is a reason I’m a part of this discredited blog.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Garza threw 91 pitches in 3+ innings[/quote]Impressive. And I don’t mean that in a good way.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Garza threw 91 pitches in 3+ innings[/quote]It’s not about the total. It’s about the transition.
GBTSQuote Reply
Hmm. I don’t feel so bad about Scott Maine being cut anymore. I still think he’s better than James Russell though (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Garza did have 7 strikeouts in 3 innings, which looks good until you see that he faced 22 batters. Still a pretty good rate, but not nearly as impressive as 2+ per inning.
mb21Quote Reply
Garza’s spring ERA is now in Silva territory.
Aisle424Quote Reply
21.2 innings for Garza this spring and 33 hits allowed. 14 walks and 20 strikeouts.
He hasn’t just been bad. He’s been terrible.
Still, I’ll bet everything I own he isn’t that bad this year.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think Hendry has been set up as the scapegoat for this season. If they don’t contend this year, I can’t envision how Ricketts can justify keeping Hendry to the fan base. Of course, I didn’t think he would be able to justify it last year and here we are.
There is a reason I’m a part of this discredited blog.[/quote]I don’t see Hendry getting one more year if the Cubs are planning on making a splash in the FA market in 2012. They have a decent amount of money coming off the books: Pena, Kosuke, A-Ram’s buyout, Grabow (dying laughing). Cots has the Cubs 2012 obligations, before arb, at only $72M. That’s all money owed to Carlos Silva. If the Cubs are going to continue the “youth movement” I think Hendry stays. If they splash in 2012, Hendry is gone. No way Ricketts lets him start doling out long-term deals with unconscionable no-trade clauses again.
GBTSQuote Reply
Glad you guys finally launched this blog.
I started reading ACB back during the first lazy latin posts, which confirmed there were other Cubs fans as discredited and stat-faggety as myself. Of course, I rarely commented because the commenting system drove me up the wall, but this seems to be a lot better.
Also, the first Cubs game I ever went to I was sitting directly behind a support pillar (the new blog is aptly named for me). Ryne Sandberg made two errors, the relievers blew a late lead, and the Cubs lost. It’s a way of life.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Good stuff, Adam. I could see a lot of these happening. The 20 losses for Cashner is hard to envision and I’m not sure we want to. If he loses 20, the Cubs as a team probably lose upwards of 100 or more. So I’m hoping you’re not right about that one. It’s going to be fun to watch Castro. He’s shown more power this spring, but it’s Arizona and the ball flies off the bat there. As you pointed out, he leads the team in home runs, which to be honest is kind of scary when he has just 4 of them. A good April in the power department and I could see him reaching 20. I’d say it’s unlikely, but here’s to hoping. If he does hit 20, the Cubs have a superstar on their hands.[/quote]I definitely hope Castro homer total exceeds Cashner’s loss total. I was envisioning something like Justin Verlander’s 2007 season when he lost 17. But holy crap, the Tigers have had a lot of guys flirt with 20 losses in the last decade.
AndCountingQuote Reply
I dare say there’s not much the defense can do when the pitchers don’t like keeping the balls in the park. Must be a particularly nice day in Arizona today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think Hendry could be gone. As for Quade, I don’t see that. I think they like him a lot, and realize he doesn’t exactly have the ’27 Yankees on the team. I know they’re excited about him — hell, how can you not be? That bald SOB just makes you like him, doesn’t he?
[quote name=mb21]I tend to agree with you here. I don’t think the team is going to lose because of Garza or anything like that, but if it turns out Garza’s best days are past him then I think he gets fired. Hendry invested way too much in a pitcher who isn’t great and just better than average.
For what it’s worth, I think both Hendry and Quade are gone after this season in the roles they currently have. I think Hendry gets promoted to something else and I’ve thought that for a long time. He’s been with the Cubs organization a long time now. I think he’s a part of the organization for a long time yet, but his days as GM are numbered. The bad thing is that I also think Hendry will be the one hiring his replacement.[/quote]
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
[quote name=Steve Swisher]I think Hendry could be gone. As for Quade, I don’t see that. I think they like him a lot, and realize he doesn’t exactly have the ’27 Yankees on the team. I know they’re excited about him — hell, how can you not be? That bald SOB just makes you like him, doesn’t he?[/quote]
I think you’re dead (bleep) wrong.
No seriously, I like Quade. He hasn’t given me a reason to hate him yet.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Garza threw 91 pitches in 3+ innings[/quote]
Yeah but he’s really gonna benefit from being in the NL!
8volumesthickQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think you’re dead (bleep) wrong.
[/quote](dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan] the commenting system drove me up the wall, but this seems to be a lot better.
[/quote]Yes. Yes it does.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I like Len on the radio.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think you’re dead (bleep) wrong.
No seriously, I like Quade. He hasn’t given me a reason to hate him yet.[/quote]I agree. I especially like it when he does the light bulb trick with his mouth.
GBTSQuote Reply
I’m fine with Quade managing-wise so far, but his public persona leaves me cold, even if I do like bald men.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Glad you guys finally launched this blog.
I started reading ACB back during the first lazy latin posts, which confirmed there were other Cubs fans as discredited and stat-faggety as myself. Of course, I rarely commented because the commenting system drove me up the wall, but this seems to be a lot better.
Also, the first Cubs game I ever went to I was sitting directly behind a support pillar (the new blog is aptly named for me). Ryne Sandberg made two errors, the relievers blew a late lead, and the Cubs lost. It’s a way of life.[/quote]
I hope you keep posting, if for no other reason than to keep seeing your awesome username.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I hope you keep posting, if for no other reason than to keep seeing your awesome username.[/quote]
I am the man with no name – Zapp Brannigan at your service
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ca3b2Hy2F-Y
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
I don’t think Quade’s going anywhere. The fact that the Cubs hired him over Ryne fucking Sandberg says a lot about how much they like him.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]I am the man with no name – Zapp Brannigan at your service
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ca3b2Hy2F-Y%5B/quote%5D
If we can hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Enjoyed this post.
You realize Hanley Ramirez only hit 23 last year, right? 25 homers would be top 2 or 3 for shortstops.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]Enjoyed this post.
You realize Hanley Ramirez only hit 23 last year, right? 25 homers would be top 2 or 3 for shortstops.[/quote]
If Castro hits as many as 5 HRs he’ll probably have the most among NLC shortstops (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t think Quade’s going anywhere. The fact that the Cubs hired him over Ryne fucking Sandberg says a lot about how much they like him.[/quote]Or it says the Cubs didn’t want to put Sandberg in an impossible situation.
Everybody loves Quade right now, but they remember the end of last season and someone who likes to talk. If the team is as poor as most of us think, he’s going to vilified in much the same way that Lou was last season. There’s nothing anybody can do about that. Managers of bad teams get criticized. Managers with as little experience as he has on bad teams become the scapegoat. If only the Cubs had a more experienced manager…
If the Cubs manager to win 85 or more and contend, Quade won’t go anywhere.
mb21Quote Reply
I’m guessing by August there are dozens of articles written about how it was yet another poor decision by Hendry to hire Quade since legend Ryne Sandberg was available. People who loved the Cubs for hiring someone other than the legend will criticize that decision.
This assumes the Cubs are about a 75-win team like I’m expecting.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Or it says the Cubs didn’t want to put Sandberg in an impossible situation.
Everybody loves Quade right now, but they remember the end of last season and someone who likes to talk. If the team is as poor as most of us think, he’s going to vilified in much the same way that Lou was last season. There’s nothing anybody can do about that. Managers of bad teams get criticized. Managers with as little experience as he has on bad teams become the scapegoat. If only the Cubs had a more experienced manager…
If the Cubs manager to win 85 or more and contend, Quade won’t go anywhere.[/quote]
I’d bet anything above 78 wins and he retains his job.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Zonk breaks out the first “he’s a triple short of the cycle” of the year. (dying laughing)
PS: Samardzija sucks ass.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
As much as I’ve criticized Quade already, I kind of like the guy too. I’m rooting for him to do well. He’s waited a long time for this and by all accounts deserved a shot to manage. It’s just too bad the Cubs didn’t put a more competitive team on the field for him.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Or it says the Cubs didn’t want to put Sandberg in an impossible situation.
Everybody loves Quade right now, but they remember the end of last season and someone who likes to talk. If the team is as poor as most of us think, he’s going to vilified in much the same way that Lou was last season. There’s nothing anybody can do about that. Managers of bad teams get criticized. Managers with as little experience as he has on bad teams become the scapegoat. If only the Cubs had a more experienced manager…
If the Cubs manager to win 85 or more and contend, Quade won’t go anywhere.[/quote]
Hendry’s the easy scapegoat for this team, and the only blowback that Quade would get would be if whoever the new GM is wants someone else. Sandberg had the fan/media mystique to weather plenty of losing seasons.
Of course, given the comments flying around the blogosphere about Lou last year I shouldn’t take any of that for granted (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’d bet anything above 78 wins and he retains his job.[/quote]
If the Cubs lose 100 games he still retains his job. He’s only locked in for one more year anyway. I think the only way he loses it is if a new GM wants his own guy.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’d bet anything above 78 wins and he retains his job.[/quote]I could see that. 78 is close enough to .500, which is close enough to contending in the weak NL Central or so the arguments would go anyway.
Quade is exactly the king of manager teams hire when they’re trying to save money or just wanting to repay someone who they like. Those guys usually aren’t employed long.
There is enough talent on the team and if things go right they could contend. The problem is that this team is so old it’s far more likely it goes terrible and the team finishes with under 70 wins.
78 wins and I’d say it depends on what happened. Did Dempster get injured? Soto? I could be full of turds too.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]If the Cubs lose 100 games he still retains his job. He’s only locked in for one more year anyway. I think the only way he loses it is if a new GM wants his own guy.[/quote]I thought Quade was on a one-year deal. No?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
(dying laughing), 2.5 hours and we’re only in the 5th inning
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]I thought Quade was on a one-year deal. No?[/quote]
It’s a 2 year deal with an option for a third, though Cot’s doesn’t have the dollar value
BerseliusQuote Reply
I don’t think anybody has the mystique to weather criticisms when they’re a manaager. Even Alan Trammel took some beatings in Detroit and he managed some of the worst teams in baseball history. Trammell is one of the best shortstops in history. He’s also more a legend in Detroit than Sandberg is in Chicago. The Tigers won a World Series with what the best team I’ve ever seen and he had a monster postseason.
I actually went back to look because I remembered him having a good postseason, but wasn’t sure. Here’s all he did
ALCS: .364/.500/.818
WS: .450/.500/.800
3 home runs, a double, triple, 9 RBI, 7 RS
The Tigers scored 37 runs in those 8 games. Trammell scored 7 of them and drove 9 in. And he was the World Series MVP.
Dude got torn to shreds as manager.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t think anybody has the mystique to weather criticisms when they’re a manaager. Even Alan Trammel took some beatings in Detroit and he managed some of the worst teams in baseball history. Trammell is one of the best shortstops in history. He’s also more a legend in Detroit than Sandberg is in Chicago. The Tigers won a World Series with what the best team I’ve ever seen and he had a monster postseason.
I actually went back to look because I remembered him having a good postseason, but wasn’t sure. Here’s all he did
ALCS: .364/.500/.818
WS: .450/.500/.800
3 home runs, a double, triple, 9 RBI, 7 RS
The Tigers scored 37 runs in those 8 games. Trammell scored 7 of them and drove 9 in. And he was the World Series MVP.
Dude got torn to shreds as manager.[/quote]
True but Trammel didn’t have the Hendry Effect working for him. Dombrowski got there before the back to back 100 loss seasons, but Hendry has had nearly a decade for Cubs fans to build a dislike for him.
BerseliusQuote Reply
The bad thing is the way the Cubs handle things is that they’d run Sandberg out of town if he were manager. He’d be a no good nobody. They’d release video footage of him taking a dumb after a game when he should have been crying.
The Tigers called him back the following year to throw out the first pitch of the 2006 World Series. That was class.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]True but Trammel didn’t have the Hendry Effect working for him. Dombrowski got there before the back to back 100 loss seasons, but Hendry has had nearly a decade for Cubs fans to build a dislike for him.[/quote]True, but it didn’t stop Cubs fans from disliking one of the better managers in history after 3 straight winning seasons. Managers are usually the first to go. General Managers see what’s coming and they do whatever they can to keep their job. That usually includes firing managers and coaches. If things go bad enough and Hendry starts thinking he’s going to be fired, the thing he’ll do is fire the coaches and then the manager.
mb21Quote Reply
So based on what I expect out of this team, I expect both to be gone next year. Hendry will have fired Quade and Ricketts will have replaced Hendry with another GM.
The other thing about firing Quade if they do poorly is that he’s paid such little money next year that it doesn’t really matter.
I’ll add my scandalous prediction to AC’s
12. Red Sox underperform for a variety of reasons and Terry Francona’s club option is not picked up. Cubs hire Terry Francona.
MB21 would be one of the happiest Cubs fans alive to have Francona as manager.
mb21Quote Reply
Can we get Theo while we’re at it, too?
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Can we get Theo while we’re at it, too?[/quote]That would be sweet, but I don’t see the Red Sox letting him go. Then again they almost did not long ago. When is his contract up?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]That would be sweet, but I don’t see the Red Sox letting him go. Then again they almost did not long ago. When is his contract up?[/quote]
I think it was at least three years starting in 2008. I don’t see the Sox letting him go either, not after the success they’ve had, but you never know. He did have ideological differences with them, apparently.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
What about Brian Cashman?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]What about Brian Cashman?[/quote]
Poor Cashman. That’d be like Hendry going from the Cubs to the Smokies.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
I think if Theo leaves it’s either the Red Sox are somewhat terrible this year and he’s not brought back or he’s looking for another challenge. What better challenge than trying to turn around a statistically clueless organization than the Cubs? If he can win a World Series there he’ll become the next President.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Poor Cashman. That’d be like going from the Cubs to the Smokies.[/quote](dying laughing) yeah, he’d probably just retire.
I’d be thrilled to have Cashman, but I just don’t see him going to the Cubs.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think if Theo leaves it’s either the Red Sox are somewhat terrible this year and he’s not brought back or he’s looking for another challenge. What better challenge than trying to turn around a statistically clueless organization than the Cubs? If he can win a World Series there he’ll become the next President.[/quote]
That seems to be the thinking behind Cashman possibly leaving the Yankees because Steinbrenner Jr. is a douchebag.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think I’d still be okay with Billy Beane if he were available. Maybe the Cubs should reach out to Kim Ng in a couple years, she’s a Chicago girl.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]So based on what I expect out of this team, I expect both to be gone next year. Hendry will have fired Quade and Ricketts will have replaced Hendry with another GM.
The other thing about firing Quade if they do poorly is that he’s paid such little money next year that it doesn’t really matter.
I’ll add my scandalous prediction to AC’s
12. Red Sox underperform for a variety of reasons and Terry Francona’s club option is not picked up. Cubs hire Terry Francona.
MB21 would be one of the happiest Cubs fans alive to have Francona as manager.[/quote]
This won’t happen, but I spitefully want it to be true
13. The 2011 Rays will have a 2010 Mariners-esque season and place 4th in the AL East.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]I think it was at least three years starting in 2008. I don’t see the Sox letting him go either, not after the success they’ve had, but you never know. He did have ideological differences with them, apparently.[/quote]
IIRC Theo had issues with club exec Larry Lucchino and took his ball and went home. Not sure if Lucchino is/was the executive chairman. From what I remember Lucchino was Theriot-esque in his love of making quotes that he shouldn’t be making.
BerseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing) Was it a shriveled up ball? Should we have a Congressional hearing?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) Was it a shriveled up ball? Should we have a Congressional hearing?[/quote]
We may need an orchidometer to assess this.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/03/29/329-its-a-dry-heat/
Arizona broke Matt Garza.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
If the Cubs “contend” this year, in other words not out of it by May 1st, Hendry and Quade will stay. If they have a season below .500 Hendry will be launched and Quade will go with him. Quade is 100% a Hendry guy, not a “Cubs” guy. No ties to Ricketts and Ricketts didn’t pick him, Hendry did. I don’t see any new GM wanting a career minor league guy with little big league success to be kept on as their Manager. I just don’t see it and it will cost them next to nothing to get rid of him.
edit/ I also believe it’s quite possible due to the injured pitchers in their division that the Cubs could “contend” in the Central.
melissaQuote Reply
That’s a good point, Melissa. If they do hire a new GM, it’s highly unlikely he’d keep Quade around. They both go or they both stay.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/03/29/329-its-a-dry-heat/
Arizona broke Matt Garza.[/quote]He’ll be significantly better than he has been this spring. Hopefully he gets off to a good start and people forget about the rough spring or it could get ugly for him early.
mb21Quote Reply
He’s as fiery as Zambrano is and I doubt he’d take kindly to getting booed off the field.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]He’ll be significantly better than he has been this spring. Hopefully he gets off to a good start and people forget about the rough spring or it could get ugly for him early.[/quote]
That is my hope as well. I don’t think he’s this bad. He has to be as good as Wells, right?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
False.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
I think he and Wells are about the same. Both are noticeably worse than Dempster and Zambrano, but not significantly worse. All four of them are above average and that’s pretty good for a rotation.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]False.[/quote]
Nice snark.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Nice snark.[/quote]
I won’t warn you again.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]I won’t warn you again.[/quote](dying laughing), Zapp. Welcome.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
I think you meant
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m gonna say Cashner gets closer to 20 wins than 20 losses and that Garza will be the tough luck guy, and since he’s nowhere near as good as most Cub fans are expecting, I am gonna predict a massive let down.
DoogolasQuote Reply
PS3 fagets – mlb.tv has now updated for the 2011 season. I’m watching today’s Braves game right now.
EDIT: and it looks like Audio sync is working too. I think I just creamed myself
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]PS3 fagets – mlb.tv has now updated for the 2011 season. I’m watching today’s Braves game right now.
EDIT: and it looks like Audio sync is working too. I think I just creamed myself[/quote]I said FUCK mlb.tv and we’re going back to Cox Cable. It’s installed Friday before noon and I’ll have MLB Extra Innings. Can’t wait.
mb21Quote Reply
Doug, I think there’s going to be a massive let down with Garza as well.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t see how Garza could possibly win less than 25 games in the NL Central. Anything less is a disappointment.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t see how Garza could possibly win less than 25 games in the NL Central. Anything less is a disappointment.[/quote]Correct.
AndCountingQuote Reply
md prefers Cox
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]md prefers Cox[/quote]
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Doug]I’m gonna say Cashner gets closer to 20 wins than 20 losses and that Garza will be the tough luck guy, and since he’s nowhere near as good as most Cub fans are expecting, I am gonna predict a massive let down.[/quote]Agreed. I think Cashner will start slow, but once he gets comfortable, I expect good things from him. If Garza is anything short of 90’s era Pedro, the fans will turn on him, and I fear he will be much worse than “not as good as 90’s era Pedro.” I do not think Wrigley will be very forgiving to him, although I hope I’m wrong. I really like him as a player, even if the Cubs overpaid for him.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]md prefers Cox[/quote]Clean it up. This is your final warning. LSA.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
BTW, AC, Superstarlin looks kind of like a really tan Ralph Macchio. He should not go with that hairstyle in real life.
Aisle424Quote Reply
If Garza is anywhere near late 90s Pedro the Cubs will build a statue of Hendry outside Wrigley. They’ll probably just replace the Harry statue seeing as by that time the whole thing will have been destroyed by management. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]BTW, AC, Superstarlin looks kind of like a really tan Ralph Macchio. He should not go with that hairstyle in real life.[/quote]False. He’s not just super, he’s the best…around. He should adopt the Macchio immediately. (dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]False. He’s not just super, he’s the best…around. He should adopt the Macchio immediately. (dying laughing)[/quote]Nothing is ever gonna keep him down
mb21Quote Reply
Anyone need a job?
http://www.conbio.org/jobs/detail.cfm?id=18020
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Anyone need a job?
http://www.conbio.org/jobs/detail.cfm?id=18020[/quote]A summer with yellow crazy ants or one with blue crazy Cubs fans. It’s a tossup.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]BTW, AC, Superstarlin looks kind of like a really tan Ralph Macchio. He should not go with that hairstyle in real life.[/quote]
So that’s who that was…I thought it was George Lopez’s illegitimate child.
I usually don’t see Castro without a hat or a helmet on and the hairdo was really distracting (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius] I think I just creamed myself[/quote]
Amusing, but wrong.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Agreed. I think Cashner will start slow, but once he gets comfortable, I expect good things from him. If Garza is anything short of 90’s era Pedro, the fans will turn on him, and I fear he will be much worse than “not as good as 90’s era Pedro.” I do not think Wrigley will be very forgiving to him, although I hope I’m wrong. I really like him as a player, even if the Cubs overpaid for him.[/quote]
This is how I feel as well. If we still had Larry, I’d have WAY more faith in Garza doing well, because I feel Larry would help him with his ho-hum k-rates and he’d basically end up a slightly better 2009 Ted Lilly. Which would be very, very good.
As for Cashner, I get the feeling he’ll have a really nice stretch to start, in large part because we’ll do our best to set him up against relatively easy competition and keep him extremely well rested (skipping starts when possible and keeping a very close eye on innings/pitch count) but he’ll hit a rough patch around June/July and then pick it back up some after the All Star Break.
[quote name=mb21]Doug, I think there’s going to be a massive let down with Garza as well.[/quote]
For the record, I really hate Garza. I mean, I love what he can do in terms of his stuff, but I hate him. Because Chris Archer was my favorite prospect in history.
DoogolasQuote Reply
(dying laughing), I don’t hate Garza for that, but I’m much more amenable to getting shot of Hendry after that trade. Boggles the mind.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Yeah, I used to defend Hendry to the death. But the reason I hate Garza for it is that he’s there. I can’t really hate Hendry. He barely even exists as far as I’m concerned. Garza will actually be a physical presence that I will notice. So he inherits my hatred. He can make it go away by being way better than he’s ever been in his career, but I highly doubt it.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Doug]Yeah, I used to defend Hendry to the death. But the reason I hate Garza for it is that he’s there. I can’t really hate Hendry. He barely even exists as far as I’m concerned. Garza will actually be a physical presence that I will notice. So he inherits my hatred. He can make it go away by being way better than he’s ever been in his career, but I highly doubt it.[/quote]You gotta let him go, Maverick. You gotta let him go.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]
[/quote]That really was the theme. Like SK keeps subtly pointing out, it will be interesting to see how much of an upgrade Garza is over Gorzelanny. I know they weren’t traded for each other, but that’s what the change in the rotation was, effectively.
Also, the only part of the Garza trade I’m reserving judgment is Archer. I thought he seemed great, too, but I wonder if he’ll turn out to be the second coming of DeRosa. If Hendry somehow suspected that the stock on Archer was at its peak, I won’t mind that he got dealt. I don’t expect that to be the case, but if he flames out over the next couple of years because of problems Hendry and company saw coming, then I won’t feel so bad.
Of course, it could just mean he got lucky.
AndCountingQuote Reply
And there are way too many levels of speculation in my line of thinking. I’m ready for actual baseball. Oh well, the Cubs will have to do.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Quade will stay at least long enough to absorb the damage from the team being likely mediocre for the next year or two at least. If they don’t suck so bad, great. if they do, then replacing him is an attractive good way to distract people in a year or two.
UrkQuote Reply
New Crap: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/tom-ricketts-easiest-interview-ever.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
So how high do we think Soto will hit? I still think he’s going to hit around the 7th spot.
maquinn78Quote Reply
[quote name=maquinn78]So how high do we think Soto will hit? I still think he’s going to hit around the 7th spot.[/quote]
Unfortunately, that’s probably what’s going to happen.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]That really was the theme. Like SK keeps subtly pointing out, it will be interesting to see how much of an upgrade Garza is over Gorzelanny. I know they weren’t traded for each other, but that’s what the change in the rotation was, effectively.
Also, the only part of the Garza trade I’m reserving judgment is Archer. I thought he seemed great, too, but I wonder if he’ll turn out to be the second coming of DeRosa. If Hendry somehow suspected that the stock on Archer was at its peak, I won’t mind that he got dealt. I don’t expect that to be the case, but if he flames out over the next couple of years because of problems Hendry and company saw coming, then I won’t feel so bad.
Of course, it could just mean he got lucky.[/quote]
The thing is, even if Archer’s stock was at it’s peak, he should have been saved for something better than what is likely barely an upgrade over what we already had. So either way the trade sucks. Sure, Archer could be nothing, but he still had/has a crapload of value, and as such we should have gotten a monster return. Not another #3 starter to add to our collection.
DougQuote Reply