Having just done a new podcast episode with our favorite jabronis (jabronii?), and with the Wild Card series concluded by the time most of you actually read this shit, I figured it would be good to take a look at the roster as it stands now and figure out exactly how many spots we can realistically expect to be open after protecting the Rule 5 eligible prospects we actually care about and jettisoning the roster guys we could just as easily forget about. I think 60-day injured list guys need to be added back to the roster after the World Series anyway, so the culling is going to be pretty bloody.
As was said in the pod, I believe most teams have a roster crunch issue anyway so there might be a chance a lot of the unprotected guys can slip through the cracks and stay in the Cubs system, but who the hell knows. Also, per the Cots trackers, the Cubs only have about $90MM on the payroll prior to arbitration raises and trades/signings, so there’s plenty of space to add, so this little exercise seeks to determine how many free agents can be comfortably signed given who absolutely must be protected from Rule 5.
Trimming the fat from the 40-man
You can hunt down the Cubs 40-man roster on the official team site or at Arizona Phil’s repository of way too much information (all of it good) on The Cub Reporter. If I don’t mention the name, just assume that they’re free agents (Willson Contreras), about to be released anyway (Jason Heyward), or just someone I don’t care too much about. Let’s do this in tiers:
Keep/Stay: These are guys who are auto-renewals, arbitration eligible, or on contract prior to opt-out that are obviously going to stick around because there’s no reason to get rid of them (we’ll get into those later).
Pitchers
- Adbert Alzolay
- Javier Assad
- Jeremiah Estrada
- Kyle Hendricks (coming off the 60-day)
- Codi Heuer (coming off the 60-day but maybe back on again pending TJS recovery, but let’s just assume this spot is taken)
- Brandon Hughes
- Caleb Kilian (had his hiccups but I don’t think they can get rid of him)
- Brailyn Marquez
- Adrian Sampson
- Justin Steele
- Marcus Stroman
- Keegan Thompson
- Erich Uelmen
- Hayden Wesneski
Position Players
- Miguel Amaya (dude is sadly always injured but I don’t think they’re going to give up on him yet)
- Yan Gomes
- P.J. Higgins
- Nico Hoerner
- Nick Madrigal
- Alexander Canario (he’s Rule 5 eligible so they’re not removing him from the roster)
- Ian Happ (last year of arbitration eligibility)
- Christopher Morel
- Seiya Suzuki
That represents 23 spots that I believe aren’t going anywhere for now.
The Maybes?
These are guys who are probably game-time decisions, they could be non-tendered and re-added to the roster after the chaos of the Winter Meetings and/or the whole non-roster/invite to Spring Training stuff.
Pitchers
- Mark Leiter Jr.
- Ethan Roberts (coming back from TJS as well, I’m unsure what to make of him since he pretty much had the few meh appearances and then was just done)
- Michael Rucker
- Rowan Wick
- Brad Wieck (I have no idea what’s going to happen with him but when he was healthy he was certainly very intriguing)
Position Players
- David Bote (he has a couple more guaranteed years and then I think they’ll just buy him out, but he’s got decent power if he doesn’t whiff and he can play a bunch of positions)
- Zach McKinstry (I think he can be passed through waivers but feel like he’s probably worth keeping)
- Patrick Wisdom (power is good of course, but that K-rate is scary)
- Franmil Reyes (I don’t know if he’ll ever be scary Franmil again and feel like the Cubs could risk losing him if they removed him from the roster)
That’s 9 more spots, for a total of 32, so that leaves us eight spots to play with to protect prospects from Rule 5 and to sign free agents with by early December.
The Rule 5 Eligible Guys
I do this with the caveat that I have very little clue about prospects these days, and am only relying on AZ Phil’s list of Rule 5 Eligible Cubs prospects as well as MLB Pipeline’s ranking of the top system prospects. My non-expert rule of thumb is that I’m going to protect anyone in the top 10 rankings and then leave the rest to the whims of the baseball gods. I think the best news is that certain guys like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Owen Caissie, whom you’ve most likely heard of even if you’ve paid less attention than I have, are not Rule 5 eligible so they do not have to be added to the roster for a while yet. Please also note that AZ Phil has indicated the players who can be protected on the I-Cubs reserve list such that they may only be selected during the Major League phase, if at all (hope not).
Keep at all costs
Given their rankings and what I know about them, these are the prospects that I believe are locks to be added to the roster before the November deadline per AZ Phil’s article.
These two have made the most headlines of the Rule 5 eligible prospects in the top 30, despite Davis’ long time off due to injury, so these seem like no-brainers.
Maybe…?
- Ben Brown (they just got him in trade, but unsure if he’s made enough of an impact to be seriously considered in the Rule 5 draft)
- Kohl Franklin (his name keeps coming up in prospect write-ups but I feel like his inconsistency might keep him from being selected, also he’s only up to South Bend so shrug emoji)
- Ryan Jensen (same as Kohl above, except he’s gotten to Tennessee)
The Verdict
Given the lists from above, we’re looking at anywhere between 34 to 37 spots taken up on the roster, with the remaining spots open to select Rule 5 guys or add free agents. Feel free to tell me how clueless I am in the comments but I feel like for someone who hasn’t really paid all that much attention, this is probably close to what most would say.
Comments
The Mets might lose even after Juan Soto dropped a bunt 👀
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I feel like pulling that intense search for a substance is a great way for the Mets to get one of their batters hit once the outcome isn’t in doubt.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
It might be reciprocation for the early HBP too but this is pretty hilarious https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1579274759522902016?t=iUfsK1J9x3knPy5AiRNG3A&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Mets, the
PerkinsQuote Reply
The staggered off days in the division series plus the lack of a travel day for the final game (if necessary) is wonky as hell.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ooooh sick, I was wondering what was up with the background picture feature on the post editor but check that out in the sidebar –>
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So sad for the Mets and Cardinals. Such a shame for their early exit.
berseliusQuote Reply
Jed refraining from spanking it in his end of year presser
https://youtu.be/bfOj-bSdHq8
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Awesome to have RC writing here. I’d add something about baseball, but I missed the last couple seasons. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
Is that what that is? I know there’s some cool stuff you can do with X Theme, but I never played around too much.
dmick89Quote Reply
Some folks are saying Luis Devers but the guy hasn’t pitched above A level, how often do teams just camp a spot with a guy for an entire season like that?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Effross and Robertson are broken, which sucks even in a “Cubs win the trade” context
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Today’s end-of-season Cubs e-mail from the chairman himself, which one hopes isn’t bullshit:
Cubs Fans,
This past season ended too soon. While we knew 2022 was going to be a year of transition, we were cautiously optimistic with our offseason moves we could compete for a spot in the expanded postseason format. Obviously, our poor start ended those hopes early in the season.
Yet as I look back, 2022 felt like two different seasons. The first half of the year was defined by young players struggling to adjust to everyday roles and injuries that exposed a lack of overall team depth. However, the second half of the season had a much different feel. It showcased young players, particularly young pitchers, growing into their roles and competing hard in every game.
As the season progressed, it was clear that David Ross and his coaching staff were doing an excellent job leading and developing our young team. We closed out the season’s second half with a 39-31 record (a .557 winning percentage), which is fifth-best in the National League. Several of our position players proved that they belong at the major league level while our pitching infrastructure continued to improve. This improvement is perhaps best evidenced by our starting pitchers posting a 2.89 ERA following the All-Star break, third-best in the majors.
To win the World Series again we need to build a team that can consistently make the playoffs. That means having a strong farm system. In fact, the last 15 World Series winners were ranked in the top 10 farm systems in MLB in the years leading up to their titles. Our system made tremendous progress this year and it’s clear the efforts we have made in recent drafts and at the trade deadline are showing positive results. FanGraphs recently ranked our farm system 5th in baseball, a significant improvement over our preseason ranking of 8th and our 2021 preseason ranking of 22nd. Additionally, our prospects are learning to win as a team as three of our four minor league affiliates reached the postseason, with the South Bend Cubs winning the Midwest League championship.
There is positive momentum in our organization. Jed Hoyer and his team are building an expansive core of young high-ceiling players while making investments in infrastructure and technology to help them reach their maximum potential. We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster. As Jed has demonstrated, we will be driven by intelligent decision-making as we build a roster that can win games in the postseason – year in and year out.
On a personal level, I want to thank Cubs fans for their unwavering spirit and support. I always look forward to meeting fans on my gameday walks through the ballpark. What those special interactions reinforce is your passion for our team, ballpark and mission to win another World Series. My family does not take your loyalty for granted nor our responsibility to be stewards of this beloved franchise. It was certainly on display at the MLB at Field of Dreams game, which was among the most-watched regular season game on any network this year. I have no doubt that passion will again take the center stage during the much-anticipated MLB London Series in 2023.
So, as we look to the future, I want to say thank you. Thank you for your ongoing support of this team. I remain committed to getting back to championship baseball and look forward to sharing our love of the game together in 2023.
Sincerely,
Tom Ricketts
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Per Jed, the Cubs will be doing ‘Intelligent Spending’
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34769498/cubs-president-jed-hoyer-planning-more-intelligent-spending
It’s mealy-mouthed management speak that they can post-hoc use to justify anything they do, but it certainly has a whiff of the Cubs cheaping out again.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I realize that the last several seasons have not earned them the benefit of the doubt and also the statement from both Jed and Ricketts here allows a bit of hedging, but they’ve also used words that will get them guillotined in the town square if they don’t actually do something this offseason.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It could go either way.
PerkinsQuote Reply
berselius,
I will say that given the state of the team, farm system, and division, the most intelligent way to spend is probably to go big.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Maybe a better mic for BVS, or some furniture in his guest room/office.
BVSQuote Reply
I don’t disagree with your roster clean up though I’d probably still hold Ryan Jensen (but not the one in the autolink–that dude was done for the Giants back in’05). I can’t imagine Brown or Franklin will be held for a year on a major league roster when they are now in A+ ball.
With the minors reorg, and the covid hiatus, there’s a bunch of guys I didn’t get to see in Myrtle Beach. Like most of the Rule 5 guys in the minors. Wieck and Roberts could be cut and re-signed. Or held and put on the 60day IL right away.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
Oh, and Patrick Wisdom as depth is OK, but not as a starter.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
I think they can’t put guys back on the 60-day until Spring Training which is why they’ll have to make a decision sooner rather than later, but don’t ask me to look up the rules
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Any time any Astro hitter does anything good, my gut instinct will always be to assume they cheated. My next thought will always be that it was Kevin Goldstein’s idea.
andcountingQuote Reply
Oh, and as someone who mostly listens to (as opposed to watches) baseball, the Battleground America ads on every goddamn sports broadcast on this continent need to die a thousand fiery deaths. Holy fuck it’s obnoxious.
andcountingQuote Reply
A team from Cleveland is currently losing to a team featuring Anthony Rizzo
https://twitter.com/Yankees/status/1580009867414495232?t=4p25rQhyLP_TC_xl4aYHZw&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Is this new:
I like it
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I found it in the OV vault so it already existed when berselius gave me a set of keys (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Is there anything around here that’s not working? I see some things need updating, but I need to dig up the FTP server info first just in case. I’ll try to get those updates by this weekend since there’s actually new content being added here.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
It’s probably new for me then. Other than a very brief glance once a month to make sure the place was still here and functional, I’ve actively tried to avoid most baseball stuff over the last few years. Oddly enough I’ve had some interest since the postseason began, but these Cubs owners still suck.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Ever since our blog sites died I haven’t had much time to tinker with WordPress or whatever it is you are using here so I’m not even sure of all the functionality. I guess one thing that might be useful is a link to a tutorial about this theme. Another thing I noticed is that the slideshow on the main page for the five featured articles isn’t automatic so I guess those have to be manually changed?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Aye, it’s something you set with the post when you publish. IIRC you pick a featured image and check the ‘post slider display’ or something similar.
berseliusQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
We use WP, but it’s been a few years since I’ve done anything with it so I feel like I know nothing at this point. Here’s the theme website. https://theme.co/x
There’s not a lot that I’ve used as far as additional functionality. I was always a little hesitant to break the site. Mostly, it’s the first theme I’ve used that has remained consistent after all the various updates and has been a relief in that sense. One of the features is something called Cornerstone, but I found all the functions within in it a bit overwhelming. I’m pretty sure the slider is actually a WP feature that themes can add.
At one point I used it to differentiate important news or analysis type posts from game threads. Maybe it’s something that’s no longer needed? Here’s the setting you have to check for in the post editor (I checked it for one of your posts, I think , to test it).
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I am not seeing this in my editor, which makes me think those are administrator functions, so I can just reach out to you guys if something new is up. Unless, of course as is often the case, I’m just an idiot
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New shit –> http://www.obstructedview.net/matt-mervis-luis-devers-cubs-minor-leaguers-of-the-year/
Rice CubeQuote Reply