I know AC (and others) are very antsy for the Cubs, and anyone in MLB for that matter, to stop their faux collusion and start spending already, but the calendar is the calendar and both the agents/players and the owners/front offices are in a staring contest at the moment before the Winter Meetings in a couple weeks. I was going to set up a roster rundown, but then I realized it was a fool’s errand if the Cubs actually make blockbuster trades and signings, plus the Rule 5, so I’m going to wait on that until after the Winter Meetings are over. In the meantime, we know a few things about the payroll going forward.
Thanks to Cots Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, plus the league minimum of $720K for next year for the pre-arb guys, we have a pretty good idea of how much the Cubs have to spend before they hit the first luxury tax threshold, give or take a few million dollars, even with Jason Heyward’s dead contract on the books. The payroll breakdown shows a sharp drop in salary obligations after 2023, pending extensions to Ian Happ and/or Nico Hoerner, so there’s room to add for sure. Since the luxury tax threshold rises to $233MM next season, the math suggests that the Cubs have anywhere from $90MM to $105MM before they hit that mark, and depending on how creatively the deals are structured, even if they bust through that first tax level, they can quickly reset the year after. And despite the biblical losses and Marquee not being as big of a success etc etc, the Cubs probably have the money to throw around should they choose to, and we should hold them accountable to do so.
One of the caveats of free agency is of course the qualifying offer, which most players including Willson Contreras declined. At this time there are still 10 unsigned players who rejected the QO:
- Dansby Swanson
- Willson Contreras (Cubs would obviously get him if they re-sign him, and a comp pick if someone else does)
- Trea Turner
- Carlos Rodón
- Chris Bassitt
- Jacob deGrom
- Brandon Nimmo
- Xander Bogaerts
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Aaron Judge
Should the Cubs decide to sign someone from this list, they’ll forfeit their second round pick for the 2023 Draft and $500K in international pool money. Given the handshake deals they’ve probably made with prospects already but the fact that they can pick anywhere from 1st through 6th to 12th through 14th depending on the draft lottery, the prospect of them going for a QO free agent like they did before 2016 seems slim, especially since they’ll probably have less than the $10MM they got last draft while picking 7th in each round. Then again, if Willson signs a contract greater than $50MM overall, the Cubs might snag a pick after the 1st round, but at worst they’ll snag a pick just before the third round, and someone will have to help me with draft temporal mechanics because I’m not sure if the pick surrendered by signing someone else who declined a QO means they’ll lose that pick anyway (first round is protected).
My guess is that the Cubs will maximize that $100MM or so of buffer between their current obligations and the luxury tax threshold, and do so with non-QO guys like Carlos Correa, and hopefully others like Justin Verlander, but perhaps that’s a bit too eye-in-the-sky? But they certainly have the money to make it work!
Comments
Oh how about that –> https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/cubs-interested-in-michael-conforto-cody-bellinger.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
They do a bit about the whole “Cubs might be outcompeted if they aren’t quite win now” but as the Rangers showed recently, if they offer the most money, people will sign
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Probably still relevant:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Perhaps the Cubs get lucky and grab the next Hector Rondon?
https://www.mlb.com/news/possible-rule-5-draft-selections-each-mlb-club?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Since we’re about to see a minor league player CBA set up and this kind of thing affects 40-man players and MiLB guys, I wonder if the new negotiations address the “hot potato” claim game that happens to some players
https://youtu.be/AbL1QbozEH4
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I was thinking that the “small market” teams checking in on marquee free agents is like a small school like Davidson hoping to recruit a top player but lucking into a Stephen Curry instead (i.e. developing their own talent in a way).
Later on, perhaps there is some mini-collusion going on in how the Pirates know they’ll get curb stomped more often than not, but also knowing they’ll get a third of the road gate and whatever they earn to break even at home. It’s kind of like Random State University getting a million dollars to get destroyed by Alabama in an early season tune up game before conference play starts.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
There are several teams whose payrolls are less than what they get from TV money and that’s without any ticket sales or revenue sharing dollars factored in. “Small market” teams are just stealing money when they tank.
andcountingQuote Reply
At this point I’m pretty sure it’s not just the meatballs who are frustrated about the lack of action in MLB offseason
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Lessons from the early free agency drips:
1. A reclamation project pitcher (Clevinger) costs a bit less than $9MM
2. A middle of the road starter (Anderson) costs $13MM
3. A washed up 1B (Santana) costs a bit less than $7MM
These are AAVs albeit two of those three are on one year deals
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Looking at some of the news over the last month, I’m even more convinced the Cubs won’t be making any major moves. They’ll do the bare minimum so that they can market it as an attempt to contend, which is probably just signing a 3/4 starter, a reclamation outfielder to a multi year deal with a team buyout after the first year and an old, washed up 1st baseman.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Well, that washed up 1B won’t be Jose Abreu
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
The weird thing is that I’m glad. They should just show some confidence in Mervis and save some money at that position.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
The bright side from my perspective is that they can use the money they aren’t paying Abreu to pay Correa now
Rice CubeQuote Reply
In terms of near-term offense, though, this was a missed opportunity
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Abreu may have been the best value available, though. I haven’t seen the contract amount, but he was the guy most likely to improve from last season. Just as sure a bet to produce as you’re going to find.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Astros got him for 3 years and just under $60MM so I felt like that third year was probably more than the Cubs were willing to go for
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think a lot of folks are trying to rationalize this, but there are a few possibilities:
1. The Cubs do nothing and we wait another year (boo)
2. The Cubs do sign a couple big names but have obvious gaps that might be filled by prospects or midseason trades
3. The Cubs go for it, sign the guys in #2 and then some, in which case we need to look at the list again and figure out who’s still available (probably all of them since collusion)
I have to say that #1 would be unforgivable so I’m hoping for something around #2 or #3, preferably #3 since it’s not like they have a lot of payroll commitments at this time
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
It’s just not that much. If you’re not willing to go an extra year for a guy everyone wants, you don’t really want him.
andcountingQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
#2 would be fine. I think they’re more likely to go 1.25. They’ll sign one marginal free agent and trade for someone who sucked last year.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I suppose the thought exercise here is (and we’ll use an example) how many years you’d give a Carlos Correa and how many of those years you expect him to actually not suck? The AAV is the AAV and you’re obviously paying for those good years and absorbing the price for the bad years.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I’d probably give him more than the next best offer. Heywood sucked for a long time, but that contract was still a win. The Cubs got a little luckier with the Lester contract and he was good throughout.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
I kind of want to write about this but I don’t think I’d do it justice, there’s just the balance between “stupid money” that you spend to get a guy you need when he is available, and then STUPID money where it’s unreasonable by all objective measures to pay the guy that much. We’re still waiting to see if the Cubs have the capacity for either level of stupid.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Maybe the Cubs will do something heterodox and sign someone like Alcides Escobar to play 1b. Wasn’t he part of that all light-hitting shortstops infield that the Brewers rolled out a decade ago? As noted on the podcast, he is available!
berseliusQuote Reply
Albert Pujols said:
I don’t know what you’re talking about here.
berseliusQuote Reply
Darn, that was my buy low guy
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Newly deposited manure –> http://www.obstructedview.net/first-names-off-the-board/
Rice CubeQuote Reply