Allow Yourself a Modicum of Positivity

The Cubs officially announced the Jameson Taillon signing today:

It seems Taillon had a Zoom session with the beat folks that was also open to fans, so there’s a snippet here:

Taillon had a lot of nice things to say about his experience during the recruiting process, the excitement he felt with being able to work with the Cubs Pitch Lab and playing with the current Cubs and new Cub Dansby Swanson (I guess that’s unofficially official until they add Dansby to the roster), and just seems like he’s ready to have a good time, so I guess we should at least get some enjoyment out of this!

So I say it’s Christmas, Theo, it’s the time of miracles, so be of good cheer… and call me when you hit the last lock.

74 thoughts on “Allow Yourself a Modicum of Positivity”

  1. Saving this for when I set up the new episode later this week, but I’d enjoy working with you jabronis in the new year so keep in touch

    berselius: It me (dying laughing). Sorry for the slow response, I don’t/can’t usually check the site when I’m working in the salt mines.

    IIRC whatever podcast plugin we have on wordpress did the heavy lifting.I think all I had to do to get the first of the new podcasts to show up was

    1. Mark it as a ‘podcast’ category in the post
    2. Upload the mp3 of the podcast to our media library
    3. Add that mp3 file to the post content body (I think I just dragged it in or something?)

    Then apple podcasts picked it up.

    It looks like Rice’s PodBean embedder code does not get picked up by apple – I think that wordpress needs to know where it is and be the one that hosts it to appear in the RSS. I tried doing this after the fact with the last podcast and the feed didn’t catch it – I think it must get triggered with a new post.

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  2. I remember when Taillon was coming up with the Pirates and how great he could be. Hopefully the Cubs are able to tap into some of that potential. Not that he’s not been good, but he hasn’t been as good as a lot of the early reports indicated he could be. Here’s to hoping.

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  5. I wouldn’t hate the idea of Conforto. There would still be a lot of volatility on the roster, but that’s also probably a benefit given where the Cubs are in the competitive cycle.

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  8. Really feels like a low-floor rotation. They could be legitimately eight starters deep and be able to whether a few injuries here or there. It’s not the 90s Braves or anything, but it’s not terrible.

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  10. Yeah, I’m just estimating off those numbers and it looks like an ~88-win projection. While it’s not mind-blowing, it could be enough to keep them in contention until the trade deadline when they could build a bit more.

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  14. andcounting:
    Really feels likea low-floor rotation. They could be legitimately eight starters deep and be able to whether a few injuries here or there. It’s not the 90s Braves or anything, but it’s not terrible.

    Agreed – I thought the top guys would be 0.5-1 WAR lower in the projections, which always tend to be (rightly) pessimistic on everyone.

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  17. If Justin Steele is mostly the pitcher he was from June onward and throws more innings, there’s some definite upside there.

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  18. andcounting,

    I counted off that chart before he posts the FG article sometime today and that’s 35.8 WAR tacked onto the replacement level of say 47.6 (which I saw on the Google and Google is always right), that’s slightly over 83 wins, which at least gives them hope, so yay!

    Perkins,

    There’s always upside with Pitch Lab(TM)!

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  19. Rice Cube,

    It used to be calculated off a .320 winning percentage, ~52. Bref and Fangraphs went to a unified scale back in 2013 and dropped it to .292 or whatever, I was just using the old scale.

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  21. Rice Cube,

    I’m completely fine with WAR expectations that are more evenly distributed. For comparison, last year’s ZiPS projections were about 5 wins lower when they came out (prior to the addition of Suzuki) and this year’s projections are also about 1 WAR higher than last year’s actual totals. I don’t expect a ton of additions or major improvements before opening day, but the expectations, especially regarding the rotation and up-the-middle defense should be much higher than last year.

    But that’s saying so unbearably little, I regret even typing it. (dying laughing)

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  24. andcounting,

    I had been a proponent of this guy for a while and I hope the Cubs can make something like this happen (regardless of handedness or position, but a guy with power who can play multiple positions is probably good)

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  27. andcounting,

    I know not, I guess it’s one of those “baseball” things where sometimes something clicks and stays on for a while and you hope the club doesn’t miss if they do sign him. Most of the attention appears to be on Conforto/Mancini anyway so this probably doesn’t happen.

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  28. Rice Cube,

    I think I’m more drawn to the power potential and the defensive versatility than anything else, Conforto is probably just a corner guy now and those are spoken for, plus he likely wouldn’t deal with CF and I know not whether he can stand at 1B. Mancini is basically the same except he actually has stood at 1B and seems capable.

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  36. andcounting,

    They only need a couple spots and it really depends on how much you think you value keeping Mark Leiter Jr or Manny Rodriguez, plus whether you like our current #8 hitters enough that you don’t mind that the new #8 hitters will push them to #9 or the bench (dying laughing)

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  39. Rice Cube,

    The #9 hitter is either going to catch or pitch, (dying laughing). My point is they already have to move someone to make room for Smyly (if they really are adding him). I don’t think they’re going to add three more or even two more bats (plus a catcher, whatever route they add one) via free agency. Even if we knew they were intent on addressing 1B and 3B (I’m not convinced they have plans to upgrade either), I’d be shocked if they signed three more non-catcher bats.

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  44. Rice Cube,

    The reason I asked about the narrative with Drury is that the Cubs are a half dozen narratives away from a great season. Did Contreras really hurt the pitching staff? Could Hendricks rebound with a proficient receiver behind the plate? Can Bellinger find his swing? Will Mervis be a legit MLB power hitter? Will the defense up the middle be a difference maker? Will the Cubs proliferation of nonpower pitchers exploit the pitch clock? Are the Cubs a year ahead of the curve on strategic base stealing? Did Dansby Swanson’s mental health struggles cause him to be underrated and could his progress lead to better-than-expected improvements at the plate? Will Morel have a sophomore slump or surge? Is there a prospect we aren’t considering who will click in ‘23? Is Wesneski as good as he looked last year? Will Suzuki be as effective as it seems like his skill set suggests he should be?

    All these stories (or none of them) could break in the Cubs’ favor and lead to a better first half than the numbers suggest. Drury would be just one more. If there’s a reason to explain why he had a breakout year last season (like if he’s been held back by injuries or . . . Detroit or something) it would be interesting.

    I just look at the way this team is built and wonder if there might not be a realistic path to this group of players performing like we hope instead of how we expect. The hard data isn’t there, but there are narratives that make it plausible. Ish.

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  45. andcounting:
    Rice Cube,

    The reason I asked about the narrative with Drury is that the Cubs are a half dozen narratives away from a great season. Did Contreras really hurt the pitching staff? Could Hendricks rebound with a proficient receiver behind the plate? Can Bellinger find his swing? Will Mervis be a legit MLB power hitter? Will the defense up the middle be a difference maker? Will the Cubs proliferation of nonpower pitchers exploit the pitch clock? Are the Cubs a year ahead of the curve on strategic base stealing? Did Dansby Swanson’s mental health struggles cause him to be underrated and could his progress lead to better-than-expected improvements at the plate? Will Morel have a sophomore slump or surge? Is there a prospect we aren’t considering who will click in ‘23? Is Wesneski as good as he looked last year? Will Suzuki be as effective as it seems like his skill set suggests he should be?

    All these stories (or none of them) could break in the Cubs’ favor and lead to a better first half than the numbers suggest. Drury would be just one more. If there’s a reason to explain why he had a breakout year last season (like if he’s been held back by injuries or . . . Detroit or something) it would be interesting.

    I just look at the way this team is built and wonder if there might not be a realistic path to this group of players performing like we hope instead of how we expect. The hard data isn’t there, but there are narratives that make it plausible. Ish.

    It could go either way.

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  48. I guess I’d prefer Mancini, Drury, Conforto in that order. Probably Mancini on a 2 yr contract for 17M.

    If Conforto is any good he’ll be gone after 2023, or way more expensive. We’ve already got his contract on the team w Bellinger. If he was cheap in year 1, then OK, but seems like we’ve got some OF on the way this year if needed (Davis).

    I think 1B is less covered than other positions except C. So my pref for Mancini.

    Drury seems like a one hit wonder from last year. He’s attractive conceptually if his improvement keeps up. But the likelihood he is ~= Mastrobuoni/McKinstrey/Bote seems pretty high. (Or worse, LeHair as RC mentioned.)

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  49. Rice Cube:
    The Correa intro conference in SF was postponed…hmm!

    Apparently to wait for test results, but wonder what kind of test? COVID? PEDs?

    My sources say it’s the Which Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle Are You? test, and it initially came back Michelangelo, but SF needed a Donatello to complete their infield.

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  54. andcounting:
    Rice Cube,

    The reason I asked about the narrative with Drury is that the Cubs are a half dozen narratives away from a great season. Did Contreras really hurt the pitching staff? Could Hendricks rebound with a proficient receiver behind the plate? Can Bellinger find his swing? Will Mervis be a legit MLB power hitter? Will the defense up the middle be a difference maker? Will the Cubs proliferation of nonpower pitchers exploit the pitch clock? Are the Cubs a year ahead of the curve on strategic base stealing? Did Dansby Swanson’s mental health struggles cause him to be underrated and could his progress lead to better-than-expected improvements at the plate? Will Morel have a sophomore slump or surge? Is there a prospect we aren’t considering who will click in ‘23? Is Wesneski as good as he looked last year? Will Suzuki be as effective as it seems like his skill set suggests he should be?

    All these stories (or none of them) could break in the Cubs’ favor and lead to a better first half than the numbers suggest. Drury would be just one more. If there’s a reason to explain why he had a breakout year last season (like if he’s been held back by injuries or . . . Detroit or something) it would be interesting.

    I just look at the way this team is built and wonder if there might not be a realistic path to this group of players performing like we hope instead of how we expect. The hard data isn’t there, but there are narratives that make it plausible. Ish.

    I’m gonna take a stab at trying to answer some of these questions in a new post unless you wish to deal with it (I won’t be able to get to it until later)

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  58. It’s pretty wild that they scheduled a press conference with physical stuff still pending. I mean, the Yankees just announced the Judge signing today, and that news was, what, one or two weeks older than Correa-to-Giants?

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  65. Maybe the most interesting thing about the Correa signing potentially falling through would be the flurry of impromptu meetings, offers, and appeals that would come his way out of nowhere—teams would finally get a chance to see how Carlos Correa reacts to pitches he doesn’t know about ahead of time.

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  70. Rice Cube,

    (dying laughing). Seeing the Cubs win a World Series this year would be epic, but watching the Mets not win the World Series would be a surprisingly close alternative.

    Also interesting at this point is that neither SF nor the Mets is at liberty to discuss whatever issue. I’m sure the news machine will prove me wrong, but unless someone violates a hippo, that’s going to remain Carlos’s mystery to reveal.

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  74. Rice Cube,

    But . . . why? How are the Mets hurting other teams’ owners? Are they taking away revenue? No. Are they forcing other teams to spend half a billion to compete? No. Are they making the league unfair? No.

    I think the general idea is that the Mets are somehow exposing the other teams as having more ability to spend than they’re letting on (the Yankees, Padres, Rangers, Phillies, Angels, Dodgers, and Giants aren’t hiding it well) but even if that is true there are no obvious ramifications.

    Players have a union, but they don’t collude. (I have no idea if they’re allowed to.) They don’t get together and agree that no one of a certain skill level should ever agree to a contract under $50 million/year or for fewer than x years, where x is the number of years until their 65th birthday. No, they collectively bargain a basic set of guidelines that are usually light years from affecting the established stars of the game and then compete individually on the open market.

    A salary floor would force the owners to pay more money, and they will never agree to do that. The flip side is that this could backfire on the Mets if their team turns into a train wreck (like if their two old $45-million starters shock the odds and get hurt in their 40s or the diva personalities prove too much for even Buck to handle. If all half a billion buys you is a headache, the rest of the owners will absolutely love this.

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