NL Central Questions & Answers: St. Louis Cardinals

This is Obstructed View’s 4th interview with an NL Central blogger that we’re posting this week. Steve Sommer of Gashouse Graphs has taken some time to answer these questions and I’m most appreciative. We’ll have our final interview (Pirates) tomorrow evening after the Cubs/Pirates game.

Obstructed View: Cubs fans are all too familiar with Ryan Theriot. Aside from the 2008 season the team was probably better off without him in the lineup. What do the Cardinals see in him? What are your thoughts on the signing?

Steve Sommer: I think the Cardinals saw him as someone that wasn’t Brendan Ryan.  They believed that Ryan didn’t take the game serious enough and thus had to go.  Theriot was available cheaply and is the kind of player that Tony loves.  I’m not a big fan of the deal.  With a pitch to contact philosophy and pitching staff suited to that philosophy I’m not a big fan of trading plus-plus defense for average at best defense and a slight offensive upgrade.

Obstructed View: Gotta ask it. Is Pujols staying or going?

Steve Sommer: Honestly I’m 50/50 right now.  I think management realizes that they will have to make a big time offer, and they will make a close to market rate offer.  That said I think they also know that there is a line that they probably shouldn’t cross, even for Albert.

Obstructed View: Is the issue between LaRussa and Colby Rasmus over or is going to pop up again this season?

Steve Sommer: It will probably pop up, but I do not think it will be as big of a deal as in years past.  I think Tony will unnecessarily sit him against the occasional lefty, but on the whole I think they will coexist just fine.  Colby’s the third best position player on the team by a decent margin, and I think even Tony will see that this season.

Obstructed View: How important was the loss of Adam Wainwright and do the Cardinals have the ability to replace his expected production?

Steve Sommer: It’s huge.  It’s probably a 3-4 win loss, which in a division like this will definitely impact their playoff chances.  They won’t replace his production.  I think McClellan will do ok, but best case scenario is he’ll log ~50-60 less innings than Wainwright would have at a one run higher ERA.  While that’s still a pretty good year for a guy making the reliever-starter transition, it’s still not Wainwright type production.

Obstructed View: Are the Cardinals going to contend?  What has to happen for them to be in that position? 

Steve Sommer: I think they’ll be in the race as I think all of the teams are flawed in some way.  I don’t see any team really distancing themselves from the rest of the division.  Just like the rest of the teams in the division, the primary thing they need to contend is health.  They have some decent depth in certain spots, but they cannot sustain many injuries and hope to stay in the race.  I think they also need to have an unexpected year out of at least one of the middle infielders.

Obstructed View: How do you think the NL Central ends up 2011?

Steve Sommer: I’ve gone on record saying the Reds will win the division.  I think they have the most balanced team in terms of offense, defense (where they really stand out from the other teams), and pitching.  I think the entire division will be a fight to the finish between the Reds, Brewers, Cards, and probably the Cubs too and will likely be decided by which team is the most fortunate.


125 thoughts on “NL Central Questions & Answers: St. Louis Cardinals”

  1. I didn’t either, b. I’ve actually learned several things doing these interviews. Glad you bugged me to get it done.

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  2. I wonder if the impending loss of Pujols will make TLR see that Rasmus is a significantly better player than he’s seemed to think in the past.

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  3. [quote name=mb21]I wonder if the impending loss of Pujols will make TLR see that Rasmus is a significantly better player than he’s seemed to think in the past.[/quote]
    I wonder if Rasmus improving will smooth things out between them or make it worse. If he becomes more of a star he’ll have a lot more clout when he criticizes LaRussa.

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  4. I like the points made in this interview and in Justin’s. All three of the top NLC teams are pretty close, and it will probably come down to who is the healthiest. The Reds definitely have the best depth in the division.

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  5. [quote name=Rice Cube]I bet after today he’ll be slightly less happy with the Theriot deal than before.[/quote]
    As will pitching genius Dave Duncan.

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  6. [quote name=Berselius]I like the points made in this interview and in Justin’s. All three of the top NLC teams are pretty close, and it will probably come down to who is the healthiest. The Reds definitely have the best depth in the division.[/quote]Definitely. They’re also the most well rounded team. They can hit with the best. They have good pitching and their defense is awesome.

    I mentioned last night in the chat that I didn’t really agree that the Reds and Brewers had holes, but that’s especially true with the Reds. I think they’re a very good team. I still think the Brewers win it, but they definitely have issues on defense.

    Compare those two teams to the Cubs. Below average offense, defense, terrible at baserunning. Good pitching.

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  7. Fat Elvis, Holliday and Theriot should combine to make the Cards defense much worse this season. I think that’s going to hurt this team more than they realize. I don’t think they can win the division without Wainwright combined with their bad d.

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  8. [quote name=melissa]Fat Elvis, Holliday and Theriot should combine to make the Cards defense much worse this season. I think that’s going to hurt this team more than they realize. I don’t think they can win the division without Wainwright combined with their bad d.[/quote]
    I fear for Colby Rasmus’ health covering for all those guys…

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  9. [quote name=mb21]Definitely. They’re also the most well rounded team. They can hit with the best. They have good pitching and their defense is awesome.

    I mentioned last night in the chat that I didn’t really agree that the Reds and Brewers had holes, but that’s especially true with the Reds. I think they’re a very good team. I still think the Brewers win it, but they definitely have issues on defense.

    Compare those two teams to the Cubs. Below average offense, defense, terrible at baserunning. Good pitching.[/quote]
    I think the Reds are good defensively, and just OK everywhere else. Their offense was great last year but is due for some big time regression.

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  10. Below average offense, defense, terrible at baserunning. Good pitching

    And that’s if everyone remains healthy. No depth at all on this Cubs squad.

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  11. Hey if the cards fall right, the Cubs could have an average offense. Let’s See What Happens™!

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  12. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Sadly, this game will not see an appearance by Brian Wilson’s beard.[/quote]

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  13. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]And that’s if everyone remains healthy. No depth at all on this Cubs squad.[/quote]
    What are you talking about? They have 3 2nd basemen and Reed Johnson. (dying laughing)

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  14. [quote name=Berselius]I think the Reds are good defensively, and just OK everywhere else. Their offense was great last year but is due for some big time regression.[/quote]I don’t think the Reds are a 95-win team or anything. I just don’t think they have that many holes. They also have Yonder Alonso and he’s going to fill whatever hole the Reds need when the trade deadline comes around. This assumes Alonso returns to 2009 form.

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  15. [quote name=melissa]What are you talking about? They have 3 2nd basemen and Reed Johnson. (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing), I just looked at it.

    Cubs Bench:
    DeWitt
    Colvin
    Koyie
    Barney
    Reed

    Ye gods.

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  16. [quote name=mb21]Barney is the starter and a rookie of the year candidate according to Al.[/quote]
    FPM Steve Stone approves.

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  17. [quote name=mb21]Barney is the starter and a rookie of the year candidate according to Al.[/quote]I guess FPM Steve Stone is done Deep Goating Al.

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  18. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder](dying laughing), I just looked at it.

    Cubs Bench:
    DeWitt
    Colvin
    Koyie
    Barney
    Reed

    Ye gods.[/quote]
    I certainly hope Colvin doesn’t suck. But I definitely don’t think he should play over Kosuke.

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  19. [quote name=Rice Cube]I certainly hope Colvin doesn’t suck. But I definitely don’t think he should play over Kosuke.[/quote]I think It’ll start out with Kosuke the starter, but if/when he slumps, it’ll go to 50-50 split pretty quick. I just can’t call it a platoon. It goes against every fiber of my being. (dying laughing)

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  20. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I think It’ll start out with Kosuke the starter, but if/when he slumps, it’ll go to 50-50 split pretty quick. I just can’t call it a platoon. It goes against every fiber of my being. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    I firmly believe in a Soriano/Colvin platoon. But they just won’t do it.

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  21. [quote name=Rice Cube]I firmly believe in a Soriano/Colvin platoon. But they just won’t do it.[/quote]Same. It’s really strange that they see Kosuke as the one in need of platooning, given Soriano’s health issues and Colvin’s Keystone Kops routine in RF.

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  22. I’m probably underestimating the Cardinals because they are the one NL Central team I really don’t like. But, it seems to me that they are a notch below the Brewers and Reds, and only slightly above the Cubs.

    Their defense is going to be pretty weak, their starting pitching outside of Carpenter is just average and their bullpen doesn’t really feature a lot of guys that miss bats. If Carpenter or any one of Pujols/Rasmus/Holliday miss a significant amount of time, I could see this season turning into a disaster for them.

    The other thing, is that I don’t see a ton of upside guys that can beat their projections on their team. Perhaps huge years for Rasmus or Berkman.

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  23. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Same. It’s really strange that they see Kosuke as the one in need of platooning, given Soriano’s health issues and Colvin’s Keystone Kops routine in RF.[/quote]
    At least Lance Berkman’s bumblings won’t make him look so bad, comparatively (dying laughing).

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  24. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Zito’s car got broadsided last night. It still wasn’t the hardest he’s been hit since 2005.[/quote]I just had to bring this over from the last thread because I’m still (dying laughing).

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  25. [quote name=Berselius]At least Lance Berkman’s bumblings won’t make him look so bad, comparatively (dying laughing).[/quote](dying laughing), I need to get my Berkman pics together.

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  26. [quote name=Hector Villanueva]I’m probably underestimating the Cardinals because they are the one NL Central team I really don’t like. But, it seems to me that they are a notch below the Brewers and Reds, and only slightly above the Cubs.

    Their defense is going to be pretty weak, their starting pitching outside of Carpenter is just average and their bullpen doesn’t really feature a lot of guys that miss bats. If Carpenter or any one of Pujols/Rasmus/Holliday miss a significant amount of time, I could see this season turning into a disaster for them.

    The other thing, is that I don’t see a ton of upside guys that can beat their projections on their team. Perhaps huge years for Rasmus or Berkman.[/quote]
    I still like the Cards rotation. Lohse is dead weight but I think Westbrook and Garcia are better than all of the Reds starters. The big question marks are whether Garcia avoids the sophomore slump, McClellan can hold up, and Westbrook’s sinker survives their MIF defense.

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  27. I also think Rasmus can break out in a big way this year. Berkman’s bat should bounce back from 2010 but his defense will wipe out that gain.

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  28. [quote name=AndCounting]I just had to bring this over from the last thread because I’m still (dying laughing).[/quote]
    Ken Tremendous (or someone posing as Ken Tremendous) had a pretty good one-liner: “if the other driver in that accident looks suspiciously like Brian Sabean with a giant fake moustache, this is the most obvious insurance scam of all time.”

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  29. Basically the way I see it

    Reds:
    Avg offense, Avg to below avg pitching, Great Defense

    Cardinals:
    Good offense, good pitching, shitty defense

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  30. [quote name=Berselius]Basically the way I see it

    Reds:
    Avg offense, Avg to below avg pitching, Great Defense

    Cardinals:
    Good offense, good pitching, shitty defense[/quote]False. You’re an asshat. You’re only saying this because you hate red things. Prove me wrong.

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  31. [quote name=Berselius]I still like the Cards rotation. Lohse is dead weight but I think Westbrook and Garcia are better than all of the Reds starters. The big question marks are whether Garcia avoids the sophomore slump, McClellan can hold up, and Westbrook’s sinker survives their MIF defense.[/quote]
    Good points. I expect some regression from Garcia in terms of ERA though. Probably something similar to what Randy Wells went through last season. Westbrook should be solid but you make an excellent point about the Schumacher/Theriot double play combo.

    I don’t expect McClellan to put up anything close to that 2.28 WAR that you have projected. I’d be very surprised if he lasts the regular season as their 5th starter. I just don’t see a bullpen guy with a 4.00 FIP, 7.00 K/9 that threw a 90 MPH fastball 60% of the time out of the bullpen being able to be much more than replacement level as a starter.

    Looks like this guy Lance Lynn who threw 165 IP at AAA last year would be their best addition off the farm?

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  32. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]False. You’re an asshat. You’re only saying this because you hate red things. Prove me wrong.[/quote]
    (dying laughing), this is true. Everything in our house is blue or red, depending on who bought it.

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  33. [quote name=Hector Villanueva]Good points. I expect some regression from Garcia in terms of ERA though. Probably something similar to what Randy Wells went through last season. Westbrook should be solid but you make an excellent point about the Schumacher/Theriot double play combo.

    I don’t expect McClellan to put up anything close to that 2.28 WAR that you have projected. I’d be very surprised if he lasts the regular season as their 5th starter. I just don’t see a bullpen guy with a 4.00 FIP, 7.00 K/9 that threw a 90 MPH fastball 60% of the time out of the bullpen being able to be much more than replacement level as a starter.

    Looks like this guy Lance Lynn who threw 165 IP at AAA last year would be their best addition off the farm?[/quote]
    I have no idea why the projection systems like McClellan so much. I don’t agree with that projection either but I think he’s better than replacement level. Probably more of a 4.5 ERA guy or so.

    FWIW just from a quick glance at his GB rate I’m guessing his 90mph fastball is a two-seamer.

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  34. [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), this is true. Everything in our house is blue or red, depending on who bought it.[/quote](dying laughing), my wife is always kvetching about my buying things that are blue.

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  35. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder](dying laughing), my wife is always kvetching about my buying things that are blue.[/quote]
    It’s probably a result of my red-green colorblindness (dying laughing).

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  36. [quote name=Berselius]It’s probably a result of my red-green colorblindness (dying laughing).[/quote](dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    You should tell people you became a Cub because of colorblindness. (dying laughing)

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  37. If I had a dime for every time I’ve heard “You only like it because it’s blue” I would have a shit ton of dimes.

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  38. [quote name=Berselius]If I had a dime for every time I’ve heard “You only like it because it’s blue” I would have a shit ton of dimes.[/quote]This should have been a FanPost

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  39. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder](dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    You should tell people you became a Cub because of colorblindness. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    I made the roster? I better go on a spending spree to spend my 6-figure minumum salary.

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  40. [quote name=Berselius]I have no idea why the projection systems like McClellan so much. I don’t agree with that projection either but I think he’s better than replacement level. Probably more of a 4.5 ERA guy or so.

    FWIW just from a quick glance at his GB rate I’m guessing his 90mph fastball is a two-seamer.[/quote]
    Yeah, somewhere around a 4.50 ERA might be about right. I still think the Cardinals need to upgrade at least one of either Lohse or Mcclennan if their 2/3 is Westbrook/Garcia.

    Then again, somewhere around a 4.50 ERA is probably what I expect from Cashner too.

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  41. [quote name=Berselius]I have no idea why the projection systems like McClellan so much. I don’t agree with that projection either but I think he’s better than replacement level. Probably more of a 4.5 ERA guy or so.

    FWIW just from a quick glance at his GB rate I’m guessing his 90mph fastball is a two-seamer.[/quote]
    It looks like ZiPS projected him as a starter – 4.31 ERA

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  42. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Ron Swanson is the greatest person to have never been alive.[/quote]
    Was it the Meat Tornado episode tonight? That might be my favorite episode of the entire run.

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  43. [quote name=Berselius]Was it the Meat Tornado episode tonight? That might be my favorite episode of the entire run.[/quote]Ron has found a typewriter, and is typing all the words he knows, one of which, snuck in right as the intro started, was “butthole.”

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  44. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Ron Swanson is the greatest person to have never been alive.[/quote]
    I have one fantasy team named Meat Tornadoes and one named Pyramid of Greatness. True story.

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  45. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Ron has found a typewriter, and is typing all the words he knows, one of which, snuck in right as the intro started, was “butthole.”[/quote]

    I’m going to type every word I know… Rectangle. America. Megaphone. Monday. Butthole.

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  46. [quote name=Aisle424]I have one fantasy team named Meat Tornadoes and one named Pyramid of Greatness. True story.[/quote]They should be managed by Duke Silver.

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  47. [quote name=Aisle424]I’m going to type every word I know… Rectangle. America. Megaphone. Monday. Butthole.[/quote](dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  48. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]They should be managed by Duke Silver.[/quote]
    I know what I’m changing my discredited flb team name to – Memories of Now

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  49. [quote name=Berselius]I know what I’m changing my discredited flb team name to – Memories of Now[/quote]Hi Ho, Duke.

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  50. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]If Darwin Barney wins ROY, we should all stock up on canned food.[/quote]
    Because there will be an epic hurricane of Alvin batter?

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  51. [quote name=Manni Stats]Fuck if I’m fixing that.[/quote]
    This probably makes no sense to anyone. (dying laughing)

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  52. [quote name=Manni Stats]This probably makes no sense to anyone. (dying laughing)[/quote]You’re fixing that stupid ass groupon ad?

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  53. I wanted to let you guys know firsthand that I won’t be posting too much anymore. The truth is that I died last night. I was stalking this chick who happened to be carrying a gun. The bitch shot me in the gut and I died slowly as I bled out. I really enjoyed the experience at OV.

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  54. [quote name=Jame Gumb]I wanted to let you guys know firsthand that I won’t be posting too much anymore. The truth is that I died last night. I was stalking this chick who happened to be carrying a gun. The bitch shot me in the gut and I died slowly as I bled out. I really enjoyed the experience at OV.[/quote]That’s pretty hardcore.

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  55. “Why the hell are we still putting ourselves through this?” left fielder Alfonso Soriano said during an Opening Day press conference, adding that no one on the team has ever been happy at the end of the season, during the season, or at the beginning of the season, which, according to Soriano, is when everyone actually feels the most hopeless. “We just have to admit to ourselves that the Chicago Cubs should not be playing in a professional baseball league. Can we all just do that and put an end to this misery?”

    The Onion wins the internet again.

    http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chicago-cubs-cant-believe-theyre-doing-this-again,19870/

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  56. [quote name=mb21]Dying is one of the worst things that can happen to someone so I hope you get better, Ryno.[/quote]
    I’m sorry to mislead you. That post was an April Fools joke. I’m not really dead.

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  57. [quote name=Jame Gumb]I’m sorry to mislead you. That post was an April Fools joke. I’m not really dead.[/quote]That’s great news. I’ve never been happier to have been fooled on this day. I was preparing a grocery list so I could make some food to take to your family. Now I can watch porn instead.

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  58. [quote name=Craig Calcaterra]Francoeur came to bat with the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth. He struck out swinging on a pitch that was above his neck, so it’s good to see him in midseason form.[/quote]
    (dying laughing)

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  59. [quote name=mb21]That’s great news. I’ve never been happier to have been fooled on this day. I was preparing a grocery list so I could make some food to take to your family. Now I can watch porn instead.[/quote]
    Sweet, sweet alien porn.

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  60. [quote name=mb21]That’s great news. I’ve never been happier to have been fooled on this day. I was preparing a grocery list so I could make some food to take to your family. Now I can watch porn instead.[/quote]
    I’m happy that my heartless prank has ironically brightened your day. In turn, I hope you watch so much porn that you rub your penile skin off like a weathered automobile sticker.

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  61. [quote name=mb21]When I first started reading the quote I was thinking, what the fuck, cubs fans are going to kill you.[/quote]
    (dying laughing)
    Yeah if he actually said that, he’d be lynched.

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  62. [quote name=Aisle424](dying laughing)
    Yeah if he actually said that, he’d be lynched.[/quote]I was thinking that Soriano had just committed suicide. I was even ready to call him the dumbest person on the planet.

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  63. Normally on opening day I would listen to the radio pregame with the interview with the fine manager of the Chicago Cubs. I just realized that although Moreland might be doing it, it could be Judd Sirott interviewing Mike Quade. That combo would kill my optimism.

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  64. Stranger: hey
    You: FUCK YEAH
    Stranger: sup brah
    You: Nice snark.
    Stranger: thx man
    Stranger: where ya from?
    You: Priceless
    Stranger: u r not an asl faggot
    Stranger: but u still suck, sry :S
    Your conversational partner has disconnected.

    .

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  65. Hi everybody,
    New to this site…love the content…little confused by some of the references in the comments. If you don’t mind, could someone explain the following:

    – TOOTBLAN
    – who (or what) is Yellon?
    – why is (dying laughing) used instead of (dying laughing), or something like that?…just curious.

    Thanks everybody! Here’s to 4th place in 2011. (3rd if we’re lucky, 1st if anyone spots four headless guys on horses today)

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  66. I am excited for today! As much as we pillory hope and rainbows around here, it’s still a nice thing to have, even if it only lasts a month or so.

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  67. Oh, I just figured out the (dying laughing) situation when I read my posted comment. +1 to me today.

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  68. [quote name=shawndgoldman]I am excited for today! As much as we pillory hope and rainbows around here, it’s still a nice thing to have, even if it only lasts a month or so.[/quote]
    A month? Wow, someone’s in a good mood today. I fully expect this to be the last day the Cubs are at .500.

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  69. [quote name=Pudge72]Hi everybody,
    New to this site…love the content…little confused by some of the references in the comments. If you don’t mind, could someone explain the following:

    – TOOTBLAN
    – who (or what) is Yellon?
    – why is (dying laughing) used instead of (dying laughing), or something like that?…just curious.

    Thanks everybody! Here’s to 4th place in 2011. (3rd if we’re lucky, 1st if anyone spots four headless guys on horses today)[/quote]http://www.wrigleyville23.com/2010-articles/march/seeking-to-log-every-cubs-tootblan-in-2010.html

    As for your other question (what’s a Yellon), you are better off not knowing.

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  70. [quote name=Pudge72]Hi everybody,
    New to this site…love the content…little confused by some of the references in the comments. If you don’t mind, could someone explain the following:

    – TOOTBLAN
    – who (or what) is Yellon?
    – why is (dying laughing) used instead of (dying laughing), or something like that?…just curious.

    Thanks everybody! Here’s to 4th place in 2011. (3rd if we’re lucky, 1st if anyone spots four headless guys on horses today)[/quote]
    Something fishy about this…

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  71. [quote name=AndCounting]Already at Wrigley, people. Take care of this place while I’m gone.[/quote] And I’m on my way. I bought Aisle 424’s season tickets. I expect them to be very soiled and smelly

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  72. [quote name=Aisle424]A month? Wow, someone’s in a good mood today. I fully expect this to be the last day the Cubs are at .500.[/quote]
    OPTIMISM!!!!!

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  73. [quote name=Suburban Kid]http://www.wrigleyville23.com/2010-articles/march/seeking-to-log-every-cubs-tootblan-in-2010.html

    As for your other question (what’s a Yellon), you are better off not knowing.[/quote]
    Thanks for the warning…

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  74. Pudge72, the short version is that many of the commenters here were regulars at Another Cubs Blog, which had been around for years and developed its own collection of memes and in-jokes. Many of them revolve around Bleed Cubbie Blue and its self-important “editor in chief” Al Yellon.

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  75. [quote name=Berselius]Pudge72, the short version is that many of the commenters here were regulars at Another Cubs Blog, which had been around for years and developed its own collection of memes and in-jokes. Many of them revolve around Bleed Cubbie Blue and its self-important “editor in chief” Al Yellon.[/quote]
    Thank you for furthering my edumacation on the subject!

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  76. Tootblan: Thrown out on the bases like a nincompoop

    Yellon: Al Yellon of Bleed Cubbie Blue

    (dying laughing) is a reference to this one insane blogger who actually wrote that instead of l o l

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  77. [quote name=mb21]Tootblan: Thrown out on the bases like a nincompoop

    Yellon: Al Yellon of Bleed Cubbie Blue

    (dying laughing) is a reference to this one insane blogger who actually wrote that instead of l o l[/quote]
    Thanks for the info…I see there is a pictorial reference to the TOOTBLAN at the bottom of the page…awesome.

    A great website in general…keep up the good work.

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