Pre-Cactus League Cubs Position Player Group

In Commentary And Analysis by Rice Cube50 Comments

It wasn’t that long after I wrote this that a few names came off the scrap heap list, but then the Cubs decided to do something for their bench bat after all:

The Cubs have agreed to a contract with 40-year-old free agent Justin Turner, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic notes that the deal is a one-year, $6MM pact, while Heyman adds that Turner can earn an additional $2.5MM in incentives. 

Source: MLBTR

I had some thoughts on the eventual roster once upon a time regarding the roster around when the arbitration hearings were being held, and I guess predictably some random injuries have cropped up even before Cactus League play begins. But with Justin Turner in the fold (they’ll need to clear a spot from the full 40-man roster and I’m unsure if anyone is going to get put on the 60-day injured list to make room at this time), that does at least give us clarity for the position player group. I’m sure we will complain about the Cubs not signing Alex Bregman later, but the Red Sox seem to be having their hands full with that right now, and I kind of want to see if Matt Shaw can handle his first taste of MLB, so I shrug.

Here’s the all-but-locked-in position player group (13 spots to accommodate the maximum of 13 pitchers), with a perpetual motion machine knocking on the holiest of blocks of wood…

Catchers

  • Miguel Amaya
  • Carson Kelly

Infielders

  • 1B – Michael Busch
  • 2B – Nico Hoerner
  • SS – Dansby Swanson
  • 3B – Matt Shaw

For this one, I’m making a possibly premature assumption that Nico Hoerner will eventually throw a baseball for real other than to play catch (he has indicated his desire to play in Japan), and Matt Shaw was slowed with a minor oblique thing. But I got tired of saying “placeholder” all the time so this is as good a guess as any, here’s to speedy recoveries and sustained health.

Outfielders

  • LF – Ian Happ
  • CF – Pete Crow-Armstrong
  • RF – Kyle Tucker

Designated Hitter

  • Seiya Suzuki

I imagine there will be a plan to keep rotating guys in on defense and quasi-rest them at DH here and there, so there’s a good chance Seiya plays in the corner OF a couple times a week max but keeps his bat in there as often as possible.

Bench

  • Backup catcher – whichever of Kelly or Amaya has the day off
  • Jon Berti – IF/OF/”super” utility guy
  • Justin Turner – 1B/3B/DH
  • Alexander Canario – OF/DH

Berti has stood at every position on the diamond in his career (not including pitcher and catcher, that’s more of a Romine thing) and that includes first base for the Yankees last offseason, but he hasn’t played center field since 2022 and that was like three games. Turner has barely played third base over the past couple seasons, but he of course has done it plenty before and might not be horrible. My guess is Berti is the primary 3B backup to Shaw, 2B when Nico is playing SS, and so forth, and Turner is the platoon partner for Busch at first base. Canario has no options remaining and is the guy I least mind just sitting on the bench, as the other 40-man guys who can play CF are Vidal Bruján (ick) and Kevin Alcántara (who I’d rather just get regular playing time in Iowa). Canario last played CF at the big league level in 2023, and I guess he’s probably going to get plenty of spring reps in center until they find someone better or they trade him. This presumes that PCA plays like 150+ games and they minimize how often they have Happ and/or Tucker play CF (I don’t think you want that, like, ever). The bench is of course very right-handed as constructed here, but most of the starters are going to be out there the majority of the time and while that may seem like a huge workload, I think the Cubs will eventually find better options either promoted from within or via pickups and trades.

UPDATE Feb 20: It seems that Canario is the roster casualty to accommodate Turner on the roster, so we will probably see a spring competition for that last spot now as well as the backup in case Nico is slow to return. Since Bruján and Workman are apparently still around and currently in the lineup for the first game of spring, signs point to them as the options at this time.

From 2000 miles away, I think the Cubs did well to ensure they were covered at every spot with a defensive stalwart (or the makings of one) who isn’t a complete black hole on offense. If you buy into arbitrary end points and vibes and stuff, then the Cubs offense did some really good stuff at the second half of 2024 that can be carried forward, so even including the catchers you have average to above-average (in some cases way above) bats throughout the lineup. We can take a quick shot at predicting optimal lineups for the Tokyo opener…

Against Right-Handed Pitching

  1. LF Happ
  2. 2B Hoerner
  3. RF Tucker
  4. DH Suzuki
  5. 1B Busch
  6. SS Swanson
  7. CF PCA
  8. 3B Shaw
  9. Catcher-du-jour

Against Left-Handed Pitching

  1. 2B Hoerner
  2. LF Happ
  3. DH Suzuki
  4. RF Tucker
  5. SS Swanson
  6. 1B Busch (or Turner if it’s a tough one)
  7. 3B Shaw
  8. Catcher-du-jour
  9. CF PCA (or Canario)

Keep in mind I’m spitballing here, but I like the idea of Happ at or near the top of the lineup regardless of handedness and I don’t think they move Shaw up until he shows he can really handle it. I imagine there is a world where PCA is a leadoff chaos agent down the line but that moment isn’t here just yet. Feel free to drop your own lineups, but I do enjoy having these options.

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  24. berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    CF Brujan
    1B Busch
    DH Ballesteros
    RF Alcantara
    SS Lopez
    C McGuire
    LF Franklin
    3B Workman
    2B Triantos

    P Someone

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  35. dmick89

    For someone who hasn’t paid attention to baseball for a number of years, what does this espn/mlb news mean? Could it possibly be good news and mean we may see an end to blackouts?

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  36. Author
    Rice Cube

    dmick89:
    For someone who hasn’t paid attention to baseball for a number of years, what does this espn/mlb news mean? Could it possibly be good news and mean we may see an end to blackouts?

    The gist is that ESPN is cheaping out on their end of the deal after this current contract expires while MLB is complaining that ESPN barely talks about baseball anyway. The MLB plan has always been to move to a model that has all local broadcasts under one umbrella with no blackouts, but it is hard to know if it will ever happen.

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  38. andcounting

    dmick89,

    I don’t think so. They’re still beholden to the restrictive advertising/exclusivity terms of their various contracts but the ESPN agreement has to be at least one major roadblock out of the way. Between that partnership not renewing and various regional sports networks crumbling, you’d think the end of blackout restrictions has to be as feasible as it’s ever been.

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  41. berselius

    andcounting,

    There are now a few individual team packages now for teams who split with Bally/Fanduel/Name Du Jour. IIRC the Twins, Padres, and Rockies among them.

    I’m not sure what to take away from the ESPN news, the glass half full view of it is what was posted above, that MLB will try to keep more games under its umbrella and be able to relax blackouts. The glass half empty is that with MLB holding on to more rights it will follow the path of the NFL and do half a hundred piecemeal streamer contracts with e.g. Peacock, Tubi, etc. like they already do with Apple+.

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  42. berselius

    I don’t know the finances on the other teams that had individual packages last year but the numbers for the Padres were not great, at least from my reading. IIRC they had like 40,000 subscribers at about ~100/yr. Even if you don’t account for production costs etc that’s a huge haircut. (dunno about how ad sales worked if MLB was producing). YMMV with other teams.

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  49. berselius

    a tough one

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