Series Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles (0-0) “at” Chicago Cubs (0-0)

In Uncategorized by berselius22 Comments

Baseball! It’s back! At 4am (my time)!

It’s been a pretty cool vicarious experience to see the Cubs in Japan, maybe I should try to spend less than a decade before I return next time*. Everyone seems to be enjoying themselves, including Shota and Seiya in their unofficial roles as hosts.

Both teams were shut out by the Hanshin Tigers in exhibition games, but they both beat the Yomiuri Giants. You could really feel the relatively dead NPB ball in these games, especially in the Tigers game; hopefully the Cubs offense will pick up with the official ball in these games.

Team Leaders

Based on projected numbers

Dodgers

  • OBP: Freddie Freeman (.384)
  • ISO: Shohei Ohtani (.302!!)
  • HR: Ohtani (45)
  • R+RBI: Ohtani (266)
  • wRC+: Ohtani (165)
  • BSR: Ohtani (5.1)
  • Defense: Will Smith (11.7)
  • SP K/9: Blake Snell (11.91)
  • SP BB/9: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1.91)
  • SP FIP: Yamamoto (3.24)
  • RP K/9: Alex Vesia (11.70)
  • RP BB/9: Blake Treinen (2.74)
  • RP FIP: Tanner Scott (2.94)
  • WAR: Ohtani (6.5)

Cubs

  • OBP: Tucker (.355)
  • ISO: Tucker (.210)
  • HR: Tucker (23)
  • R+RBI: Happ (163)
  • wRC+: Tucker (131)
  • BSR: PCA (2.9)
  • Defense: Swanson (17.5)
  • SP K/9: Ben Brown (9.58)
  • SP BB/9: Shota (2.07)
  • SP FIP: Steele (3.46)
  • RP K/9: Merryweather (10.18)
  • RP BB/9: Brasier (2.48)
  • RP FIP: Pressly (3.34)
  • WAR: Hoerner?! (4.2)

That Shohei Ohtani guy must be pretty good I guess. Also, I had seen commentary from Dan Szymborski about how the Cubs ZiPS projections were weird, but it’s still a little wild to both see Nico at the top of this list and to figure that he’d likely be traded if the Cubs had landed Bregman. ZiPS really likes the Cubs defense, with Dansby, Nico, and PCA all rating as double-digit runs above average and solid numbers from part timers Workman, Kelly, and Berti. I’ve got no idea why Tucker rates so poorly (-4.1 runs), IIRC he won a gold glove in 2022. The fangraphs defensive numbers don’t really like him but he’s generally average to above average on b-ref.

Who isn’t available?

The only two Cubs injuries of note are Nico, who is still recovering from offseason surgery and should/could be back for the stateside opener, and Javier Assad, who suffered an oblique injury early in ST and probably won’t be ready for the start of the season. Assad has been the Cubs Shawn Camp memorial pitching staff MVP for the past few years, but having him out simplifies the fifth starter calculus a bit to make things more likely for Ben Brown to slide in. Though given the off-days in the Cubs April schedule he may not be needed for that many starts.

The most notable missing player is Mookie Betts, who lost 15 pounds to (likely) the flu last week and isn’t back to playing energy levels, so the Cubs get to dodge at least one superstar. As usual the Dodgers have a zillion pitchers on the shelf, but at least at this point they won’t need two strong innings from Joe Kelly to get through each of these games. Guys of note include Brusdar Graterol, Gavin Stone, and Michael Grove (shoulder surgeries), Clayton Kershaw (toe/knee surgery / age), and Michael Kopech (forearm inflammation). Aside from helicoptering in cash on guys, the Dodgers strategy seems to be rolling the dice on pitching injuries for better or worse.

Pitching Matchups

ZiPS Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each

Tuesday: Yoshinobo Yamamoto, RHP (9.27, 1.91, 3.24) vs Shota Imanaga, LHP (9.06, 2.07, 3.65), 5:00 AM CT (FOX/Marquee)

Yoshi missed about three months last season due to a strained rotator cuff suffered in early June, but was effective in relatively limited innings after coming back in September. His first start back was against the Cubs, where he struck out eight batters in four innings. He faced off against Shota in that game, who went seven innings and gave up three solo shots.

Saturday: Roki Sasaki, RHP (10.99, 2.48, 3.56) vs Justin Steele, LHP (8.42, 2.42, 3.46), 5:00 AM CT

I can only scout the spreadsheet with Sasaki, but he’s probably gonna be pretty good. Given how the Cubs looked against other Japanese pitchers that they don’t have much tape on in the Tokyo Dome exhibition games this could be a rough one. But you never know how a young guy is going to react to what is probably the biggest start of his career.

Steele had a fantastic 2024, I just hope he manages to not repeat last year’s first-game-of-the-season injury.

Go Cubs Go. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

*two out of the three times I was planning to visit Japan were wiped away by a tsunami/nuclear meltdown and a global pandemic, so maybe Japan doesn’t want me to visit (dying laughing)

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  2. Author
    berselius

    I took the day off tomorrow (though I’ll probably do some work after I wake up from a nap), but it’s probably going to be coffee IV day on Wednesday (dying laughing)

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  5. Author
    berselius

    It’ll be pretty surprising if the lineup is not

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    1B Busch
    SS Swandong
    CF PCA
    3B Shaw
    C Amaya
    2B Berti

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  10. BVS

    A dead horse I didn’t have time to beat in the podcast: I bet Turnbull will be a more valuable pitcher than Lance Lynn.

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  15. Author
    berselius

    Rare beginning of the season W to mlb.tv for not cutting out the radio feed during a tv commercial break

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