Off Day Reset Before the Rest of the Gauntlet

In Commentary And Analysis by Rice Cube16 Comments

The Cubs are off today, one of many this month of April which includes every Thursday up until their road finale against the Pirates in Pittsburgh on May 1. This after 15 games which includes a tough “home” (Japan)/road trip and a tough home stand prior to a tough road trip back out West. If you haven’t noticed the theme yet, the Cubs have had a tough, and some would argue the toughest in MLB, road to start the 2025 season. Yet, we can rest today having witnessed a couple of “fake” games in Japan that won’t matter if the Cubs take care of business, a reasonably successful road trip, and an objectively successful first home stand even if everyone wants to tar and feather the bullpen. A 9-6 record would have the Cubs on a 97-win pace, which isn’t how baseball works per se, but it does look better than not being on that pace.

Per the standings, the Cubs have faced the second-most teams over .500 among the NL Central clubs, behind Cincinnati who have played one more game against that tier of opponent. With a 6-6 record against “good” teams, the Cubs have arguably the best performance in the division here. They also happen to have the best run differential in the majors for now, at +28, which is helped in some part by their destruction of the Not-Oakland A’s (the Yankees are second, probably helped by beating up on the Brewers to start the season), but also in the various beatdowns administered to those .500+ teams thus far. That run differential happens to also be the best in the majors for now, and while we can lament the unfortunate losses primarily attributed to poor bullpen performances, I think the process for the most part is working. And despite that tough early season schedule, the Cubs still maintain a slim lead over the Milwaukee Brewers for the division lead, pending whether the Rockies will actually stop being useless today.

The stats at FanGraphs and BRef and pretty nifty to see as well. Per FG, the Cubs have five regular position players at half a win or better, including catching legend Carson Kelly (totally sustainable). The offseason’s biggest trade get, Kyle Tucker, is at 1.2 fWAR already and has to be salivating after seeing what Toronto gave Vladdy Jr. The walk rates across the board are really fun to see, including rookie Matt Shaw getting the free pass at a 22.8% clip despite not finding his batting groove just yet. There are six position players who have a better than league average batting production measured by OPS+ or wRC+, whichever your preference, and that points to a balanced lineup and relentless approach that someone might have mentioned on that podcast.

The pitching is another matter, though Shota Imanaga has deservedly earned his reputation as a big-game starter despite the clunker against the Rangers in the home stand finale. There are different inputs between FanGraphs and BRef but they generally agree that the early season success has been fueled by the offense and the pitching needs to step it up, particularly the bullpen arms that in recent years has needed some time to settle in. Matthew Boyd has been a nice surprise, pitching well in his early work, and I feel like despite the pedestrian WAR totals, Justin Steele (now on the injured list for a couple weeks minimum) and Jameson Taillon have been very productive, and Colin Rea has helped save the bullpen a couple times. Ben Brown needs to still find his groove but has promise, and I think they might just have Rea take a start or two while Steele recovers at this time. The pitching will need to do their part especially against this last bit of April against some formidable opponents before they head to Pittsburgh.

Here’s that pod we talked about if you missed it, might see how the Cubs do coming back home before we pod again…

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  2. berselius

    The two biggest stock up guys for me are Taillon and Boyd. In particular for Taillon the results have just been okay but I feel like his stuff looks significantly better.

    Also nice to see Seiya getting off to a hot start this time.

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  13. BVS

    Brown needs to still find his groove but has promise, and I think they might just have Rea take a start or two while Steele recovers at this time.

    Spencer Turnbull still out there. Just sayin’

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  14. BVS

    2021 Cubs Trade Values:
    Javy>Kimbrel>Chafin>Rizzo>Marisnick>KB> Tepera

    PCA>Madrigal/Heuer>Palencia/Deichman>Alcantara/Vizcaino>Espinosa>Kilian/Canario>Horn

    Hoping Rizzo value continues to climb. You can argue that Horn should be equal to Espinosa, but Horn’s MLB experience was with Detroit after a DFA.

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  15. berselius

    Rice Cube:
    Believe when we see etc

    Huffing the copium that this actually means something, but in the meantime I too am exploring a possible contract extension with the Cubs.

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