I paid so little attention to Cubs baseball after the first few weeks that it's hard for me to believe that Jeff Samardzija threw 88 innings a year ago. I did know that however many innings he threw that they weren't the typically bad Jeff Samardzija innings. I also knew he got lucky. I probably paid no attention to Samardzija's 88 innings because he's a middle reliever on his best day. And last year was his best day.
Samardzja did strikeout 8.9 per 9 and allowed just 6.5 hits per 9 so you're asking, what's the problem? Well, he walked 5.1 per 9 and it's not like this was unusual. His career BB/9 rate is 5.3. Samardzija's BABIP was under .260 and based on what we know of balls in play, there's every reason to believe that will increase and probably considerably. Including last year, his career BABIP is .279. Only 5.3% of the fly balls he allowed ended up being home runs. That too will increase significantly. HIs sparkling 2.97 ERA looks considerably worse than his FIP (3.66), which looks quite a bit worse than his xFIP (4.27). The latter two are far more predictive of next season's rates than ERA is.
His average projected ERA next year is about 4.3 with an FIP of 4.36. As a reliever, that's worse than replacement level. If he were to start you can add another run to that projection. We're looking at a projected ERA as a starter of 5.3 with an FIP of nearly 5.4. He's a replacement level pitcher. His increase in strikeout rate was an encouraging sign, but his walk rate remained terrible. His HR/FB and BABIP are due for regression.
Samardzija may begin the year in the rotation. If several other options end up injured, it's entirely possible he would beat out someone you haven't yet heard of for a chance to start. Pitchers get injured and although 4 or 5 starters going down in spring training would be unlikely, it could happen. That's how Samardzija ends up in the rotation.
That's the only way. Think about how many spring trainings you've been following this team. Now think about how many imaginary position battles the organization has come up with to try and create some competition in what is mostly a boring time for these athletes. There's a reason the Cubs are holding a contest to see who can hit the ball the shortest distance right now. It's called competition. These guys are insanely competitive. If you let them coast through spring training they're not going to push themselves. If you create a competition, it will lead to other competitions. Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster may decide to place a bet on who throws more innings so each pitcher works on becoming more durable throughout the season. Competition is good. But it doesn't mean all competitions are created equally.
Samardzija is currently so far down the depth chart it's difficult imagining a situation in which he would be given the ball at the start of a game. Regardless of how well he does in spring trailing that is true. Sveum and others can talk the possibility up all they want, but the reality is that Jeff Samardzija is barely good eough to make an MLB bullpen. The Cubs rotation will be unbelievably awful if we're talking about Samardzija getting the ball every 5th game.
Take the idea of this competition for what it's worth. Let's put it this way: Darwin Barney has a significantly greater chance of being the opening day shortstop than Samardzija has of being in the rotation. All that would have to happen for Barney to slide over is for Starlin Castro to get injured. I actually think Samardzija starting has as much chance of happening as Soriano being the opening day CF. If Marlon Byrd, Brett Jackson, David DeJesus, Dave Sappelt and Tony Campana all go down with injury then Soriano just might shift to CF.
If Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Paul Maholm and Chris Volstad go down with injury we could see a rotation Samardzija get a shot. The rotation may look something like Travis Wood, Rodrigo Lopez, Casey Coleman, Trey McNutt and Jeff Samardzija. I guess that's possible. Samardzija just might be good enough to be the team's number 5 starter if the current 5 starters all get hurt. You never know. Then again, that would probably depend on how well Andy Sonnanstine is pitching.
Comments
But he’s in the best shape of his life and is throwing the ball really well already and has a new mental outlook since promising to try harder and he’s trying hard at trying hard and working hard on hard work and hard work.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
(dying laughing) I just don’t think there’s any actual competition. There are just way too many people ahead of him on the depth chart.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
(dying laughing) The Cubs Way.
MishQuote Reply
In fact, that’s dying for a Hipster Ricketts meme. “Samardzija beat someone out for a rotation spot…you’ve probably never heard of him”
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I was actually being serious. I’m sure there area handful of other starters who are better and it wouldn’t surprise me if they got a shot before F7 did. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Up until 2009 this made a lot of sense: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120302&content_id=26964588¬ebook_id=26966084&vkey=notebook_chc&c_id=chc&partnerId=rss_chc
Now it’s just a crazy idea. He had a .289 OBP last year. This is a guy who is number 9 hitter in the AL.
mb21Quote Reply
Sveum sounds like a tattooed version of Cuey.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Best shape of his life?
ACTQuote Reply
Anyway, I actually don’t think leading off with Soriano is all that out there. He still is probably one of the Cubs’ better hitters (not saying much, obviously) and precise lineup order doesn’t really matter. His better career #’s in the leadoff spot may carry some weight, as well.
ACTQuote Reply
Of all projected Cubs regulars, Sori had the highest wOBA last year except Castro (and LaHair in his brief callup). He could easily be one of the Cubs’ top 3 or 4 hitters next year, in which case, any place in the top half of the order would be acceptable (the most important thing is getting the best hitters in the best slots; the rest is nit-picking).
ACTQuote Reply
I don’t think Sveum is being all that serious…as far as I know DeJesus is pretty much “in” as his leadoff hitter and he’s probably just trying to talk up Soriano in case the Cubs are magically able to conjure up a trade.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
That’s a good point and I’m all for Soriano hitting high or even leading off vs lefties, but I don’t want him in the top part of the order vs righties.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.northjersey.com/sports/Klapisch_Yankees_Mariano_Rivera_tried_but_failed_to_teach_signature_pitch.html
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
That cutter is like voodoo. Although one of the most memorable matchups I witnessed with Rivera was when he was still setting up for Wetteland and he fanned Mark McGwire on what I assumed (back then) were three changeups, so he does have other pitches. But the cutter is magic.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
When he was setting up Wetteland, that was before he discovered his cutter. Oddly enough, that was also his best year (with career highs strikeout rate and innings pitched). Adding his cutter didn’t actually improve his performance in any noticeable way.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I’m pretty sure it’s like 95% cutter but I wonder if anyone’s ever done an aggregate pitchf/x (or equivalent) analysis of Mariano’s pitch selection throughout his career. I don’t think it’s the pitch so much as the fact that he can put it anywhere in or out of the zone he wants.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
It increased his mystique considerably.
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Yeah, it’s fine with me. Maybe he has a bounce back year hitting number 1, especially if he can voodoo opposing pitchers into throwing him nothing but fastballs.
joshQuote Reply
Rivera’s success is completely traceable to his .05 increase in Closer Mentality and 1.4 increase in Feared By Opponent
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I would have thought he lost a point by being brown, but in today’s games, I guess that’s more normal for a closer. Back in my day, closers had good American names, like Mitch Williams, Dennis Eckersley, and Lee Smit–I mean…uh, Dennis Eckersly again.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
That actually helps the closer, due to the fear factor.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Don’t forget the entrance music. Is it any coincidence that the two most dominant closers in recent memory walked on to “Enter Sandman”? I think not.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I reflexively swung and missed just thinking about it.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
We don’t know that. The sample in that season was pretty small. We’d have to expect considerable regression at that point.
mb21Quote Reply
If you add his first two seasons together you get a 143 ERA+. That was without the cutter. It’s been 224 since and that includes the years in which typical players are declining significantly. I think it’s safe to say that he improved by a lot when he added that cutter.
mb21Quote Reply
@ ACT:
John Grabow should enter to Sad But True.
mb21Quote Reply
Hoffman entered to Hells Bells. Always liked that one.
mb21Quote Reply
Kerry Wood should enter to “My Body Is A Cage”
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
JefF7 should enter to cruise ship calypso music
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I discount his first season since he was a starter. But yeah, sample sizes and all that. My point was just that if someone told you that Mo discovered the greatest pitch ever during his career, you’d never be able to guess when it was by looking at his stat sheet. He was already a star by then (finishing 3rd place in Cy Young voting). I just love the irony that in his best statistical year, he didn’t even have his signature pitch.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I wouldn’t discount his rookie season. We’d have to make adjustments, which I was too lazy to do, but it’s still information. I do agree it’s interesting he didn’t have that pitch in what was his best season statistically.
mb21Quote Reply
I remember watching Rivera when he was setting up for Wetteland. My roommate was a Yankees fan and we’d go to the bar to watch them if they were on. He was the most dominating reliever I’d ever seen. I didn’t think I’d say the same thing 10 or 15 years later though.
mb21Quote Reply
When Z was in the bullpen with the Cubs they should have played Sanitarium when he entered.
/average Cubs fan
mb21Quote Reply
Carlos Marmol should enter to Whiplash.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
No way. It’s gotta be this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fWvub_WBho
(dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I liked the part where Wetteland left the Yankees after 1996’s championship and then the Yankees still came out ahead because you-know-who was waiting in the wings.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Kind of like the 2012 Cubs. They’ve got Samardzija waiting in the wings to replace Marmol. Or Garza. Maybe even both.
mb21Quote Reply
Marmol should enter to Wipeout
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
(dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Gregg Williams: “It was a terrible mistake, and we knew it was wrong while we were doing it.”
(dying laughing) That’s so much worse.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
So he’s sorry he got caught. Awesome. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
Gregg Williams is a piece of shit.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
It really is. I’m guessing he’s trying to fall on his sword now to try and head off the inevitable media investigation that will discover this is a scheme that’s followed him from team to team.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I’ve only seen snippets of the story. I wonder who squealed. Not that they shouldn’t have blown the whistle, but it’s annoying that this went on for more than three years and only came up just now.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
LeBron singlehandedly erases an 18 point second half deficit, then passes away the game-winning shot. Heat lose.
I don’t know what the fuck is wrong with that guy, but whatever. (dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
He probably wore the wrong headband.
joshQuote Reply
You can tell there is a definitely change in philosophy this spring.
They’re cutting things short for entirely different reasons this year. If they keep cutting things short because they’re not working out, the Cubs won’t be playing baseball after mid April.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Based on what I heard on ESPN this morning, it seems like most of the important people in the Saints Organization knew about it, including Peyton.
MishQuote Reply
It is at least worth noting that Shark’s BB/9 was below 4 each of the last three months of the season and his FIP/xFIP was: 3.67/4.27 2.21/3.16 and 3.66/3.72 and while those aren’t amazing numbers, they’re overall better than his season on the whole and if he has actually figured out what that “control” thing is he might be able to make a decent starter. And he’s only just going to be entering what will be his prime years.
Doug etetectdsaagaQuote Reply
Those final 3 months are only 42.2 innings though. It’s possible he has better control than the overall season or career numbers show, but his control wasn’t any good in the minor leagues either. It is at least a little bit encouraging that he had a better 2nd half of the season, but I don’t think there’s any reason he should be considered a starter at this point. If you can get some value out of him as a reliever, great, but I wouldn’t take a chance on starting him.
mb21Quote Reply
WTF, WTF
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I liked this story…
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/dodgers-bat-boy-chico-herrera-gets-big-league-122705846.html
mb21 wrote:
I could see not giving him a try if the team were actually good, but wouldn’t this be a good time to say “what the hell, let’s see what happen”? I’m sure there are more capable guys who deserve that spot though, but just throwing that out there. Like you wrote, though, you probably give guys like Volstad, T. Wood, Coleman, etc. the spot before you give it to Samardzija.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Kerry Wood enters to organ music and the sound of lunchpails being opened.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Williams and that program are pieces of shit who deserve to be punished, but I’m not surprised by this, They just seemed annoyed that they got caught. I bet this goes on in one way or another with have the teams in the NFL.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
We could we use “why not” for everybody. Why not start Kerry Wood? Why not give Carlos Marmol a chance? Why not put James Russell in the rotation (who I think is actually better than Samardzija)?
I think the jobs should go to those most deserving with one exception: service time. If you’re wanting to keep a player’s service time a bit lower so you can gain another year of control, fine. It’s why I won’t care if Jackson doesn’t make the team out of spring training even though he’s the team’s best outfielder. If you become a team known for not playing the best guys the best guys won’t sign with you.
Also, and this is probably most important, this is a business. These are employees. If you’re not awarding playing time based on merit then you’re going to have some very unhappy employees. It’s also not exactly the business model I’d like to see from this organization. Good season or bad season, I want the best guys playing. If you want to trade the best guys, go for it. Then you can play the lesser ones, but if you’re keeping them around you owe them.
For example, let’s say Samardzija takes over for Wells. What does that do to Wells’ value? He’ll make considerably less money in the future.
mb21Quote Reply
Yesterday morning I was blowing my nose and threw my upper back out. I heard something pop and felt this incredibly sharp pain from my neck down through my back. You feel so stupid when you injure yourself in such an idiotic way. I wasn’t one of the fans that gave Sosa shit when he was DL’d because of a sneeze though it was mildly entertaining. Not anymore. This shit hurts.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I neg’ed this not because I hate you, but because I feel your pain.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’ve felt like I’m
85 years oldthe same age as SK since yesterday morning.mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Is it true the players’ union will freak out if a solid prospect such as Brett Jackson isn’t called up at some point this season when it’s clear that he’s outclassing his minor league competition?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
They’ve done so in the past. According the rules, teams must have a valid reason for sending a player to the minor leagues. Usually players optioned aren’t clearly the best at not only their position, but the entire outfield. It’s going to be hard for the Cubs to justify sending Jackson down and even more difficult to keep him down after June rolls around assuming he’s performing well.
mb21Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/are-some-players-rushed-to-the-major-leagues.html
mb21Quote Reply
(crickets chirping)
jswansonQuote Reply
Hmmmm….. Shark has turned out to be a damn fine starter..and Barney is a Gold Glover…yeah enjoy that egg on your face dumbasses!
ClayQuote Reply