One thing I've noticed while looking over the projections the past couple months is just how little power the Cubs have. Their starting lineup is practically filled with singles hitters. Alfonso Soriano still has some pop and so does Geovany Soto, but the rest of the lineup has none. I was wondering when the last time the Cubs starting lineup was projected to hit as few home runs as these starting 8 are.
I needed to figure out how many home runs the starting 8 were projected to hit. I used these players: Darwin Barney, Marlon Byrd, Starlin Castro, David DeJesus, Bryan LaHair, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, and Ian Stewart. CAIRO projects a whopping 92 home runs from these guys. Leading the way is Soriano with 18 followed by LaHair and Soto with 14 each. This 92 projection isn't out of line with other projections either.
Guru projects 72 and ZiPS 85. On the other end is PECOTA at 103 and Oliver at 109. The average of these 5 is 92. That's the number we're interested in and now we have to see when the last time the Cubs starting 8 hit so few home runs.
- 2011: 121
- 2010: 111
- 2009: 120
- 2008: 150
- 2007: 117
- 2006: 117
- 2005: 156
- 2004: 200
- 2003: 137
- 2002: 161
- 2001: 143
- 2000: 127
- 1999: 141
- 1998: 157
- 1997: 94
- 1996: 135
- 1995: 109
- 1994: 84
I thought I'd look back through 1991 so we had 20 years and as I started looking at 1993 I realized that 1994 and 1995 were strike-shortened years. So while they did only hit 84 home runs in 1994, they did so in 113 games. If you prorate that over 162 games it's 120 home runs (1995, prorated 124). That 1994 team had more power than we're going to see in 2012. Onto the next few years.
- 1993: 112
- 1992: 68
It was 20 seasons ago when the Cubs starting 8 hit fewer home runs than the 2012 starting 8 is projected to 8. Here's a look at that starting 8.
Sammy Sosa hit 8 home runs for the cubs that year in 67 games. It was his first year with the team. Even that team had a couple players in Sandberg and Dawson who hit more than 20 home runs. No Cubs player according to CAIRO is projected to hit that many.
I sure hope The Cubs Way isn't a return to these types of teams. In year 1 of new management it certainly is. Hopefully future years won't be. I didn't enjoy most of the Cubs team in the 90s and probably wouldn't enjoy them again.
Comments
Look at all those dishonorable seasons from 1998 to 2005.
GBTSQuote Reply
In 1997, one of the worst Cubs years I can remember, they hit 94 home runs. If that is the type of season the Cubs will have, all I can say is ruh-roh.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
It’s crazy to me that Sammy started when Ryne Sandburg and Andre Dawson were still on the team. They seem like they had least 10 years in between them.
joshQuote Reply
Also (dying laughing) @ the “M&M Boys.”
GBTSQuote Reply
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/4-Amish-Arrested-After-Buggy-Hits-Cop-Car-142308205.html?dr
(piously laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
While home runs may be scarce, I’m hoping for lots of bloops, flares, and doubles/triples in the gap. They may not get out of the park, but at least get it to where they ain’t.
/prays to BABIP, god of bloops
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2012/03/12/312-sveum-i-know-what-goes-on/
In case you ever wondered, Dale Sveum knows what’s going on.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Sure they might not hit many home runs, but dammit, they will fucking bunt. And they will bunt well.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
He actually does know what’s going on!
Isn’t this different than what Theo is saying? Isn’t Theo still saying this team is WS bound?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXZS-TRWSCA
I think their stated goal is to always try to win the World Series. There will be a lot of “trying” this season (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I guess on reflection I don’t think iPads should be allowed in the dugout due to being able to watch the game as it’s happening. Are phones allowed in?
Also, I won’t apologize for finding the Olive Garden review amusing. Marilyn’s old, and in a small market, but that doesn’t mean standards should be relaxed. Mostly I enjoyed it because of what commentators noticed was an approach from a completely different cultural context than most of us are used to. This aspect made it very pleasant. It reminded me of the Iowa City Press-Citizen’s (where I briefly worked) food columnist from awhile back.
Finally, I’ll be bowing out of the fantasy baseball league. I learned that I barely can manage one league, and I’ve been in the other one 10 years now so I’ll stick with that one.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
the author of this column clearly didn’t follow the OV discussion on the triple slash stats:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/11/tech/web/online-comments-sxsw/index.html
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Yet another reason to laugh at the Redskins
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7677375/sources-dallas-cowboys-washington-redskins-lose-millions-cap-space
BerseliusQuote Reply
regarding that bob brenly quote from the HBT article that someone linked to on a prior post:
does brenly ever use concrete evidence to pinpoint why he hates ramirez and thinks he’s lazy? i rarely listen to the audio on TV broadcasts so i am curious if he ever brought up hard numbers, or if he is just a total blowhard.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Gameday link for today’s game
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_03_12_cinmlb_chnmlb_1&mode=gameday
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I don’t think I’ve ever heard Brenly allude to something specific, but generally that laziness rep comes from running to first. Given Ramirez’s 5000 hamstring/quad/etc tweaks a year the coaching staff has told him to take it easy from time to time, that doesn’t stop people like Brenly from ripping him for it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cubs are hitting Bronson Arroyo hard
Also, water is wet
BerseliusQuote Reply
By Len and Zonk’s reaction, Soriano just hit a 800 ft HR
BerseliusQuote Reply
Soriano: “False.”
Aisle424Quote Reply
Pezcore, if you’re around I just sent you the invite for fantasy baseball.
Anyone interested in taking SK’s spot, e-mail me at acbfantasybaseball@gmail.com.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
In order for Brenly to use concrete numbers to back up his claims, those numbers would have to exist. Which they don’t. Which is why Bob Brenly never cites numbers.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I never understood why everyone doesn’t hit Arroyo like this, all the time.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
So what’s up? My Gameday is frozen at Cubs 4, Reds 1 with two on and two out in the bottom of the 2nd.
Oh wait, I guess the inning just ended.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Anyone know how many pitches Maholm is at now? His pitch limit was supposed to be 35 today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ooooh, Shark is in. Must order an AM radio from Amazon as MLB.com blacked me out.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
wait, what? They’re blocking out radio feeds now?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
It might not have been free. But the dialog window said they couldn’t verify my location and suggested a blackout, then took me to the pay screen. Usually when a broadcast is free it just loads right up.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Things aren’t looking quite so good for Samardzija today
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
It shouldn’t matter for the radio. That isn’t blacked out anywhere. Unless it’s just the mlb.com feed that’s free or something
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I thought that was the case, so maybe the MLB.com feed simply isn’t free. The feed was from the Reds’ side I think.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ah, there’s the daily TOOTBLAN.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Peavy got shelled today. 2.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 1 K
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Was there a TOOTBLAN today?
Yes.
MishQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
Yeah, Brenly’s critique is solely about effort. When asked about numbers the other day, he admitted Ramirez had very good numbers, but said that his issue is that he could have had great numbers if he tried.
Hustle, grit, lazy Latins, etc. etc. nothing to see here.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Brenly says it like you can just buy Campana legs at your local Home Depot.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I would assume phones aren’t allowed, but I don’t know. I’m sure we’d have seen some idiot talking on his phone in the dugout if they were.
Regarding the Oliver Garden thing, I’m not saying you should feel bad or apologize because you found it funny. It was funny. I feel bad that she and an entire community, if not an entire region, has been made fun of. People in other parts of the country may be more cultural than those in the Midwest, but compared to the average European they’re nothing more than a redneck hick who goes to Wal-Mart. By most, I mean 99.9% of the population in this country. We are the least cultured people among the wealthier nations.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
You can’t listen to the Cubs games using WGN AM’s own stream. That stream switches to reruns or a perpetual bad music loop when the games are on.
You can buy the MLB audio package and listen to them even if you’re in-market, though.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Oh Marmol…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Any idea how many pitches Maholm threw today? He only threw 2 innings, which is surprising at this point.
mb21Quote Reply
He didn’t walk or hit anyone either. Only gave up 2 hits.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Maholm is coming off an illness, which might be why he’s a bit behind.
ACTQuote Reply
@ mb21:
He was sick for like a week with the flu and had shoulder issues so they’re trying to keep an extra careful eye on him. Muskat said his pitch limit today was 35.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Marm actually found a way to increase his 20+ ERA. Impressive.
ACTQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ Zonk calling Eric Gagne “Gag Me.”
GBTSQuote Reply
So much for Marmol’s Mechanics are in the Best Shape Of Their Life
BerseliusQuote Reply
Marm has as many outs as runs allowed this Spring.
ACTQuote Reply
That seemed like a fun inning for the other team.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
ACT wrote:
That makes sense. Thanks.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Probably not for whoever was in the batters’ box. It must be scary to face Marmol, especially when he’s wild.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I’m sure he messed up his mechanics sowing seeds and harvesting shit all winter.
Probably roping steer, too.
That would fuck up anyone’s mechanics.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
ACT wrote:
I agree.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Is it just me, or does it seem strange that every year in ST at least a couple guys go down with the flu?
I guess I associate flu with cold weather, not 90 degrees and 90% humidity.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7r2i6NrqNs
Aisle424Quote Reply
That was a homer I recently did not expect.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Whoa, didn’t realize that Brackman was on the Reds. Why the hell did the Yankees release him? He was their #3 prospect last year.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
…and again.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I guess he sucked last year in AAA. Still though
BerseliusQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Marmol gets the win!
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
He’s a warrior.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
A clear sign that he should be in the mix for the rotation
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Then Samardzija could close!
ACTQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
/Muskat’d
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I’m not sure he inspires enough fear to be the closer.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
The flu is actually associated with cold weather because people tend to be inside more, in closer proximity. Hence, ST flu. The temperature itself doesn’t have anything to do with the flu.
joshQuote Reply
Any chance Castro improves at hitting homeruns? I can hope, can’t I?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
It’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Scouting reports have long had him as peaking at about 15 per season, which is pretty damn good for a SS.
Speaking of this, I think the Cubs are horribly misusing Castro when it comes to the lineup. He’s not a power hitter. He’s going to drive runs in if you put him in the middle of the order because he’ll bat .300+. On this team it doesn’t much matter since the team has no power, but on a typical team he really has no business hitting in the middle of the order in my opinion. Perhaps vs lefties, but not righties. He probably shouldn’t be hitting higher than 6th or 7th vs righties in a typical lineup (2012 Cubs lineup is not so typical). He has a 131 wRC+ vs lefties, but 94 vs righties.
mb21Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/people-in-chicago-can-count-real-good.html
mb21Quote Reply