On Saturday I published this year's playing time survey and more than 50 of you took the time to fill it out. Thanks for taking the time. I'm going to go ahead and publish the results here. I didn't make any adjustments to the batters because you guys pretty much nailed it as far as position and team totals go. I did make some small adjustments to the pitchers as our total was more than a couple hundred innings shy of what a team will pitch each year. There was no reason to increase it to 1450 innings as most of the remaining innings you didn't project would be taken up by replacement level players anyway. But I did do a little adjusting by bumping each starter's projected total up a bit by a different perentage increase than I used for relievers. Overall, I added just 100 innings spread among all the players so it's not a big deal.
| Player | Projected PA |
| Starlin Castro | 609 |
| David DeJesus | 504 |
| Ian Stewart | 453 |
| Darwin Barney | 448 |
| Marlon Byrd | 438 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 436 |
| Geovany Soto | 436 |
| Bryan LaHair | 388 |
| Jeff Baker | 221 |
| Brett Jackson | 200 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 190 |
| Blake DeWitt | 158 |
| Welington Castillo | 140 |
| Joe Mather | 126 |
| Tony Campana | 124 |
| Steve Clevenger | 120 |
| Dave Sappelt | 84 |
There's really only one player that stands out to me: Marlon Byrd. I'm guessing some of the reason he's as low as it is (438) is because you guys are expecting him to be traded. That's probably a pretty good guess. Since we've been publishing these surveys (since 2008), I don't think I had ever projected someone to get more than 600 plate appearances until this year (Castro).
This was also the first year I projected so many plate appearances to be spread among several different players. It appears we're thinking the same thing in that Jackson and Rizzo will get some playing time at some point, but not all that much. They won't get an insiginficant amount of playing time, but they're not going to be the primary player at their position until much later in the season. One thing I thought was interesting though, was that LaHair is projected to have 388 PA and Rizzo 190. It's the one position that doesn't add up, but then I realized that I have been assuming Jeff Baker is going to play at 1st base against most of the lefties. Maybe that doesn't happen early on in the season, but at some point I'm thinking Baker takes over for LaHair vs lefties.
Soto's projected PA are right in line with what I was thinking, but it's also interesting that nobody could settle on a back-up catcher. Castillo is projected to get the bulk of the back-up work, but only 20 more PA than Clevenger.
Joe Mather 126 PA? It does appear he has locked up the spot on the team, but other than Byrd that number surprised me the most.
Personally, I think the overall total for DeJesus is a bit off. He has 900 PA over the last couple years though he did bat more than 550 times each of the three previous seasons. I had hiim at somewhere between 401-450, but closer to the 401 total. DeJesus can't hit lefties (.308 career wOBA, 83 wRC+). I'll admit that I don't really know who is going to take those PA vs lefties, but at some point I think someone will. I also think he's an injury waiting to happen. That's just me. It's clear I had different expectations than the rest of you so I wouldn't bet on my expectations being correct. If I was betting, I'd bet on these.
| Player | Projected IP |
| Matt Garza | 193 |
| Ryan Dempster | 188 |
| Paul Maholm | 165 |
| Chris Volstad | 155 |
| Randy Wells | 138 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 122 |
| Travis Wood | 80 |
| Carlos Marmol | 65 |
| Kerry Wood | 51 |
| James Russell | 51 |
| Casey Coleman | 40 |
| Trey McNutt | 38 |
| Marcos Mateo | 35 |
| Rafael Dolis | 33 |
| Scott Maine | 29 |
No surprise to see Garza atop the list in projected innings. The projections were also set up in a way that we'd not end up with projections over 200 innings. If you think so and so is going to pitch 200 innings I'm certainly not going to argue with you, but I feel a 200 inning projetion is about like projecting a batter to get 725 PA. It happens. Sometimes it happens regularly, but there are just too many things that get in the way. Especially for pitchers.
For example, in Garza's best season in his career (last year), he threw only 194 IP. Pitching 200 innings just isn't something you can expect in my opinion.
There's also little surprise seeing the drop off after Garza and Dempster. Maholm is coming off an injury, Volstad isn't all that good, Wells is about to be given the Cubs Special Bullpen Test and most of you think there's little chance Samardzija remains in the rotation for that long. Speaking of Samardzija, I set up a separate survey for him when it became clear he was going to get some starts to begin the season. I took the numbers from that survey for Samardzija's total here.
I am a little surprised to see Marmol with just 65 innings, but not surprised to see Wood pitching just 51. Sean Marshall had been a reliever the last couple years I felt comfortable projecting 75 innings out of. I did project between 71-80 for Marmol, but certainly expected closer to 71.
It says something about our expectations of James Russell as a pitcher to see him getting 51 projected innings. Or it says something about the Cubs lack of pitching, particularly from the left side in the bullpen. I'm going with the latter because for the most part, that list of relievers is about as unimpressive a list as I've seen in a Cubs uniform in a long time. That said, I'd much rather pay league minimum for a guy like Mateo or Dolis than big money for someone who isn't Mariano Rivera.
Not that it matters, but in the next few days I'm going to look back at our past playing time projections and see how we did. I know for a fact we failed miserably in 2009, but that team missed expectations by about 10 to 15 wins. We can't predict an injury. We know who is more likely to get injured, but injuries happen to all the players. All we can really do is project how the manager is going to use the players and with a new manager that's more difficult than before.
Comments
Here’s another one, sans Direwolves, and the divisions are more logically constructed.
MishQuote Reply
RC, I think not voting is a legitimate choice, and given our Dem and GOP politicians, usually the best choice. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
Today’s MLB.tv free game is Cards-Astros. Rejoice!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
He was injured in 2010 but bounced back in 2011. I will Google that injury for myself but I wonder why you think he’s going to get injured, unless that’s a reference to the not-so-soft outfield brick wall.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Levine’s chat:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I was hoping for more of the second response.
I confess I didn’t watch the show. I haven’t read past the first book yet. I might still, though, if I get through my current lot of books. I’d read the books before I watched the show, I think. Just the kind of person I am.
joshQuote Reply
I’m glad the site came back. I was very lonely. I almost started doing some work!
joshQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
I thought he was injured more last season for some reason.
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
Not exactly sure what happened.
mb21Quote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
There they go again referring to someone who is in his late 20s as young.
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
It’s worth your while. I read Book 1, watched Season 1, then read the rest. There are some minor changes but the story is pretty much in tact from text to screen (had to cut some characters and they made certain characters in the show more sympathetic). The upcoming seasons will be interesting as the world expands exponentially so more characters may have to be cut out to help the viewers out.
Back to the direwolves – yeah, they play a huge part in the books. Just looking back at Season 1, outside of Ghost, Bran’s wolf (unnamed in first book/season, Summer later) saves him from his second assassination attempt, Sansa’s is killed as one of the dramas on the Kingsroad, Arya’s (Nymeria) is set free because it attacked Joffrey, and Robb’s becomes one of the most lethal soldiers in his army. And their role(s) generally get bigger in the upcoming series. The books did do a better job of emphasizing their importance, though.
MishQuote Reply
Johnson and DeJesus looks like a good platoon on paper, but Sveum said earlier that he sees DeJesus as the everyday right fielder (ditto Stewart at third, though I’d platoon him with Baker).
ACTQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I thought you might enjoy that (dying laughing)
As for DeJesus, I think he played more than 130 games in Oakland but his numbers did suck. I’m guessing it has to do with the ginormous foul territory in that stadium. Wasn’t completely sure about the park factor but I think it’s pitcher friendly.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mish:
First I have to finish American Gods, a book on bugs, and the Children’s Hour on the ole Kindle. I probably have about 5 more actual books on my bookshelf. Oh right, I have Snow Crash for sure.
joshQuote Reply
First day back for Bubbles after 13 day vacation…
Not happy
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Yeah, this team just doesn’t have the talent to not platoon. Maybe you don’t platoon Chase Utley, but Darwin Barney is pretty far from Chase Utley.
joshQuote Reply
DeJesus had the same number of PA at home and away:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=dejesda01&year=2011&t=b#hmvis
Seemed he batted a bit better (in terms of average and SLG) away from home but got on base less. It was a bad year overall but it looked like he had three good months and three really really bad months.
If this is to be believed then Oakland has an extreme pitchers park.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
It’s hard for me to believe at some point Sveum isn’t going to realize that a platoon at either or both of those positions is best for the team. Then again, you probably need to platoon at 1st, 2nd and LF too. Can’t platoon at every one of those positions.
mb21Quote Reply
DeJesus isn’t really expected to be a savior, though, looking at projections. More like just a solid player with some bounceback potential. He might give a good year or two. Couple that with whiteness and a little grit, and he could be the next Mark DeRosa, though.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I like the signing. it was a smart move, but I think he needs to be platooned. As ACT mentioned, Reed Johnson would be a great partner for him.
mb21Quote Reply
I bid lower on DeJesus, I think. I can’t remember now. I think injuries and platoons will limit his playing time. I think whichever starter shows struggles by the ASB will be the odd-man out and Jackson will get the call up. Then again, I’m basing that on the Old Cubs Way, so I don’t know how to predict this season.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
That’s how I see it. A smart move, but they didn’t get a superstar everyday type guy.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I could see DeJesus being the odd man out simply because Soriano makes $18 million per season. It’s going to be hard for this team to just bench him. If they kept him on the team, they’ll play him. I do expect Byrd to be traded, which opens a spot for Jackson, but if Jackson is hitting well in the minors and DeJesus is struggling I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jackson take his place.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Sveum will probably play the same game that past managers have done, where they say that a player (e.g. DeJesus, Stewart) is the everyday guy but whenever a lefty pitcher comes around he’ll “just happen” to give him a day off. I’m sure that if one of them is on a hot streak they’ll stay in the lineup, platoon advantage/poor hot streak sustainment be damned. It’s easier on the players’ egos that way.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
That’s a good point. There’s a certain amount of psychology to all this. That could be the motivation behind saying F7 will be a starter, but I guarantee you Jeff won’t have the same length of leash as Matt Garza.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, that’s how I expect it to play out too.
mb21Quote Reply
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7713078/2012-nfl-free-agency-peyton-manning-denver-broncos-agree-96m-deal-source-says
Tebow’s prayers have technically been answered, the Broncos are now a better team pending physical.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Joakim Soria has to have TJS again, maybe. I guess the Royals should have traded him when they had the chance.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
The lesson here is be careful what you mumble to yourself while imagining invisible friends in the sky, because you never know how you might have to reinterpret the coincidental results.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
This is funnier because the kid’s name is Timmy.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Very cool…Neftali Feliz is starting the game for the Rangers against the slightly better Cubs split squad.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Sorry I didn’t mean to downplay the book or the wolves. I started reading the books half way through season 1 and thoroughly enjoyed them.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
You failed to take my bait and get all worked up. I was hoping to spark more of a nerd war. I’m disappointed, WaLi, truly.
I’ll get around to them maybe. I said this before, but to be honest, I found the first book to be depressing.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
You know nothing. (dying laughing)
I tend to like sadder stuff anyways (my favorite work of all time is Hamlet!), but the ultimate hope is that there is redemption and resolution for the main characters…the ones that survive, anyhow. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
@ josh:
Also, as much sadness as there is, there are some scenes that are so epically awesome (in the positive sense) that makes it worthwhile.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I have an MA in lit, so I’m no stranger to depressing shit. I guess it was the utter lack of redemption at the end of the first book, and the horrible casualness with which that kid dispatches of Ned. Ned’s whole story arc just left me feeling equal parts frustrated and horrified. He was just too trusting, I guess. The writing was strong overall. I liked the irony of Ned’s sense of justice at the beginning. In general, I find children being pushed out of windows to be depressing to read.
EDIT: I didn’t mean for that to rhyme. I’ll go without dinner, this time.
EDIT: Damn!
joshQuote Reply
As a general rule, I find series to be frustrating. I like resolution.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
You and I don’t agree often, but on this, we do. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
mb – i saw a brief mention of you trying to figure out stats-related stuff but i am too lazy to read through all the posts between now and then. assuming that this hasn’t been resolved yet, are you just trying to figure out the odds that a player will hit within X SDs of his projection? i.e. if a player projects to bat .300 with a std dev of 0.010, what are the odds that he will hit .310/.320/etc? because that, or some related calc, is super easy, excel has an idiot-proof way of calculating this type of stuff.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
A beatdown in Wrigleyville: http://www.buzzfeed.com/scott/cop-chokes-out-st-patricks-day-partier
Right outside Sluggers, the only bar I’ve actually been PHYSICALLY thrown out of.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I tried to play the video. It said it was “private.” I bet the cops have to work very hard not to choke about 90% of the people they see on SPD.
joshQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Let me try to explain what I want. If you’re familiar with PECOTA or CAIRO, they both offer percentile forecasts. Here’s an example of the CAIRO percentiles for CC Sabathia: http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/looking_ahead_to_2012_-_cc_sabathia
Say a hitter is projected to have a .330 wOBA, what I’d like to do is provide his 80th percentile projection. Someone mentioned z-scores and that may be what I need, but I’ve never used them before so it’s a bit overwhelming. What will that .330 wOBA hitter do if he reaches his 80th percentile? Say it’s .360. This would mean there’s an 80% chance he’ll hit .360 or lower and 20% chance he’ll hit .360 or higher.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I don’t think what he’s doing is averaging the other projections and then computing percentiles, I think what he’s doing is calculating a bell curve and giving his 50% point as the CAIRO projection. In other words, I think there are data we’re not seeing here. I could be wrong.
EDIT: At any rate, it’s more complicated than what I was thinking it was.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
No, SG is using his own projections, CAIRO, to create the percentile forecasts.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Right, I’m a little confused by his chart. Where is he getting 227? That’s his projection, right? So what’s he deviating from? The average of all the projections was 218, right?
joshQuote Reply
At any rate, try this http://bayes.bgsu.edu/nsf_web/jscript/normal_cdf/normal_icdf.htm You put in your mean, your standard deviation and your probability (.2 for 20th percentile, .8 for 80th percentile, etc) and it calculates the x at that point.
joshQuote Reply
Is it possible the Cubs will send two of their three ebst hitters to Iowa?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
I think they’ve already pretty much said BJax is going to the minors, if that’s one of the 2.
joshQuote Reply
I just assume Rizzo and Jackson and Castro are their three best..
Although I think Soto is gonna be good this year.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Hydrochloric acid spill on the Tri-State tollway around 115th street has it closed for the next few hours.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juFZh92MUOY
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Yeah, Rizzo and Jackson are going to Iowa. It’s more of a business move, I think. It’s not like those guys are going to win them the World Series, and they’re “blocked” or whatever, so might as well extend their service time for future use.
joshQuote Reply
I feel like the decisions to this season are tantamount to the FO rolling a handful of loaded dice and hoping to get just one 6, where a 6 is a guy they can trade for someone of value for the future.
joshQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I was confused for a moment as I thought that was the actual footage of the spill, and then the title clued me in (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Pedantic times, as usual
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sabr_analytics_wrap_up/
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ josh:
Oh i agree 100%. baseball is a weird sport
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
TangoTiger wrote:
This is kind of how I feel about religion.
joshQuote Reply
Shit. Marmol is hurt.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
josh wrote:
If it’s like PECOTA, which I would assume it is, the numbers other than wOBA or FIP are only what similar players with those numbers would do. Say you have a guy with a mean projection of 30 home runs and a .370 wOBA. His 90th percentile is .410 or something. They look at players who are roughly .410 wOBA hitters to estimate the peripherals (HR, PA, IP, K, BB, etc).
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
I enter .320 for m, .25 for s and 25% for p and it gives me this: Please specify proper values for M, S, and p
I’ve tried 320, 25 and 25 too
EDIT: figured it out
Thanks.
mb21Quote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Time to move Garza to the closer role.
BerseliusQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I agree with this. I know we had this discussion before, but I don’t think batting average tells me anything.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Okay. I could do it, I think, if I had a complete data table or had the standard deviation they were using. There’s probably some trick to estimating those percentiles, maybe just a simple chart or something, but I don’t know enough about stats to say.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
It just might work.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Jay Jackson to the rotation. He threw well the other day.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
yeah, convert to decimals. That got me at first too.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Doug Descenzo is coming out of retirement to close.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I can put something together for you, but it won’t be for a few days (maybe not until next week). FWIW, the standard deviation of wOBA uses the following formula:
sqrt(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)
1 SD for a player with a .330 projection and 500 plate appearances is this: 0.023.
So according to the link you provided, that player’s 90th percentile would be .360. That’s roughly equal with BP’s percentile increase for Castro whose mean projection is 685 PA.
mb21Quote Reply
Tony C. did his equivalent of hitting for the cycle today (single, double, sac bunt, groundout).
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I thought you were going to say groundout to 1st, 2nd SS and 3rd.
mb21Quote Reply
Berselius wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QguWdSsI8S8
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2012/03/20/tuesday-top-ten-the-top-ten-things-i-learned-at-sabr-analytics/
ACTQuote Reply
Discredited draft in less than 2 hours!
GBTSQuote Reply
The Cubs tied 5-5? WTF? There’s no tying in baseball. What is this, soccer?
ACTQuote Reply
Dontrelle —> Orioles
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This is probably fake, but I still (dying laughing)’ed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=N4_THXK4nbY
Suburban kidQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
Totally forgot about the draft. This is going to be my most uninformed draft yet, but I refuse to let the auto-draft pick for me. If I’m going to be fucked by stupidity, it is going to be my own stupidity.
Aisle424Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/projections/projecting-the-2012-cubs-right-field.html
mb21Quote Reply
Watch Sports Live On Your PC And Never Miss Another Game Again. No Contacts,No Hassles Just A One Off Payment For 24/7 Access To Your Favorite Sports. http://bit.ly/watch-sports-live
Roseanna BoenQuote Reply