It looks like Chris Volstad has the last rotation spot locked up. If you looked up "serviceable" in a dictionary there would probably be a picture of Volstad next to it. He's been in the bigs for most of four seasons, and made 87 starts in his last three years with the Marlins. Perhaps one of the reasons that Thoyer targeted him in the Z dump was that his peripherals looked pretty good last year (3.64 xFIP) despite a 4.89 ERA. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out, but that's not too surprising given his strong ground ball tendencies. Weirdly enough despite being a groundball pitcher who pitched half his games in the cavernous Sponsor Of The Week Stadium in Miami, he has given up a ton of HRs. The Cubs are betting on that normalizing.
Here's his 2012 projections
| Projection | IP | BB | HBP | SO | HR | ERA | FIP |
| Steamer | 114 | 39 | 3 | 75 | 11 | 4.4 | 4.08 |
| Bill James | 164 | 55 | 4 | 108 | 19 | 4.34 | 4.31 |
| RotoChamp | 170 | 54 | 3.67 | 114 | 22 | 4.29 | 4.40 |
| Tango Marcel | 160 | 50 | 4 | 113 | 19 | 4.39 | 4.18 |
| ZiPS | 168 | 53 | 4 | 107 | 24 | 4.82 | 4.64 |
| CAIRO | 122 | 38 | 3 | 77 | 15 | 4.56 | 4.39 |
| PECOTA | 136.67 | 43 | 3.67 | 70 | 17 | 4.87 | 4.66 |
| Oliver | 165 | 56 | 3.67 | 108 | 24 | 4.98 | 4.71 |
| DavMarcel | 141.33 | 44 | 3.67 | 100 | 15 | 4.46 | 4.02 |
| Guru | 150.67 | 50 | 4 | 109 | 20 | 4.53 | 4.39 |
| Average | 149.17 | 48.2 | 3.67 | 98.1 | 18.6 | 4.56 | 4.39 |
This projection, based on the run environment in the past two years, comes out to 9.72 RAR, or 1.0 WAR. Given my grumbling about FIP undervaluing groundball pitchers, he's probably worth a bit more but we have to use a common framework to compare everyone. There's not a lot of upside here but he's cheap and will give innings, just what the Cubs need for now. If the Cubs had simply signed him or something rather than traded Z for him Randy Wells would probably have his spot, but them's the breaks.
Previous pitcher projections
- Matt Garza: 3.02 WAR
- Ryan Dempster: 2.36 WAR
- Paul Maholm: 1.71 WAR
- Jeff Samardzija: -0.42 WAR / who the hell knows
Comments
How does his projection compare to Wells’?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
This is exactly the type of cutting edge analysis I have come to expect from this blog.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
You’ll have to find out when I get around to doing Wells’s spreadsheet (dying laughing). Glancing at his Fangraphs numbers I’m guessing Wells has around the same projection. I think Wells has more upside despite being older due to how last season went down. Wells had back to back 3+ fWAR seasons, while Volstad has never cracked 2 fWAR.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I like Volstad. I have for awhile. He was always someone I kept an eye on for my fantasy teams.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
(dying laughing). I just put up his projection as a reliever – the spread in his WAR is huge depending on how many innings he starts. That doesn’t even begin to consider the chance that he really is better, but as I said above we have to compare these guys in a common framework, which is just the projections we have.
The IP in the WAR numbers above come from an average of the projections, but our “official” projections will use the survey numbers instead.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Volstad is a reverse Wandy Rodriguez All-Star for me. He was really good in the first (only?) start I remember against the Cubs, but has been pretty mediocre otherwise.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I have sort of a novice-type question about reliever WAR calculations…so I know there’s some kind of multiplier or adjustment that takes into account the leverage during their appearances. I assume a mop-up inning isn’t weighted as much as an inning where the bases are loaded and there are no outs. Is that really fair to calculate their WAR that way? Is there some justification for calculating reliever WAR the way it is currently done?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
You just use their season-long leverage index, and it’s a multiplier on their RAR (or equivalently, WAR).
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Is their season-long leverage index just an average over the course of that season then?
I guess I could Google it myself, but just wondering if there is a standard chart for determining what each situation is leveraged at.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
It’s in the Book, I’m assuming it’s derived from the win expectancy table. Looks at the variance (more or less) of the possible changes to WE at the current game state.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I don’t remember the exact details for calculating LI, but it makes the most sense that you’d do it for when a reliever enters a game.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Ah, I have the Book. I should read it (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’m going to have to get a copy of that one of these days.
joshQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLrpBLDWyCI
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
LI is calculated at the time the reliever comes into the game. Here’s Tango’s initial article on leverage: http://www.tangotiger.net/HOFrelief.html
The link in that article is actually hosted here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/crucial-situations (takes a look at the 2003 Cubs collapse)
Here’s part 2: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/crucial-situations-part-2/
part 3: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/crucial-situations-part-three/
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
There’s a lot of good stuff in there about reliever usage, platoons, lineup construction etc. There’s so much info that it’s difficult to remember it all, which is why berselius had to remind me that the stuff I was asking for was in The Book (dying laughing)
I did wonder whether leverage works differently if the reliever has to face the heart of the order vs. the 7-8-9 guys. I’ll have to look that up later, trying to explain to the wife why there are 792 endings to LOTR after they dumped the ring in the volcano.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
I hope you’re right. While I’m generally quite optimistic about the Cubs and life in general, I do not share your optimism here. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Thanks much. Is it safe to go there yet or are they still virus-y?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Well, when you’re done, explain it to me. Because I kept thinking “why isn’t this shit done yet?” when I read it. I’ve never groaned so much while reading a book.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
None of those are The Book Blog so yeah, go for it. I’m not sure about their blog though. I figured I’d wait until tomorrow to check that place out.
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
To be honest, I just showed her this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxAEo3CWeq8
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Mostly because Tolkien needed a competent editor even more badly than Paul Sullivan.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=I0VZj-85E5o
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
That’s the truth.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
“You think an average Stormtrooper knows how to install a toilet main?” is one of my most quoted (or paraphrased-quoted) line from that movie.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Though to be more accurate based on what we see all Stormtroopers know is inaccurate shooting in white uniforms.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
That whole dialogue is win.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
That whole movie is win. Probably my favorite ever
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I like most of Kevin Smith’s movies. The characters talk a bit too much, but the dialogue at least has a purpose.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I don’t know if it’s my favorite, but it’s up there.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I love the dialogue in his early movies (Clerks, Mall Rats, Chasing Amy).
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
It’s tough to pick a favorite. I feel more confident saying it’s my favorite comedy, at least. My top 5 in no particular order are Clerks, October Sky, Shawshank, Blues Brothers, and Empire Strikes Back
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
You may like today’s Teefury.com T-shirt then:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
I knew what you meant, but thought it amusing to think of Shawshank and Empire as comedies if one weren’t paying attention (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
You don’t find Brooks Hatlen’s story to be hilarious? My world is upside down.
BerseliusQuote Reply
The Big Lebowski is one of my favorite comedy films. My favorites are probably Schindler’s List and The Accused.
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
Marge Schott called it the “feel-good movie of the year.”
GWQuote Reply
“October Sky” is a really good movie, one that I can never recall when asked to name a good movie. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
I really liked Rachel Getting Married. I can’t think of any other movie that made me feel happy and made me reevaluate my life. I loved Inception. The Terminator was always one of my favorites. Temple of Doom I’ve probably watched more times than even Star Wars, although much less than Return of the Jedi, which was always my favorite as a kid (nerd cred lost).
joshQuote Reply
Well since we’re talking about favorite movies:
The Godfather Part II, Braveheart, The Godfather, A Clockwork Orange, Shawshank Redemption, The Empire Strikes Back, The Dark Knight, Raiders of the Lost Ark, The Lion King, No Country for Old Men
MishQuote Reply
I also really like Dogma, among the Kevin Smith movies. Mostly because that set me on my path to not believing.
MishQuote Reply
Galaxy Quest is probably the first movie out of my top five. By the Sons of Worvan, such a quotable movie.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I liked Dogma when I saw it, but it’s a movie that I like a lot less every time I watch it. Same goes and then some for Chasing Amy.
Then again, I was one of like five people who liked Jersey Girl, so what the fuck do I know (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Whoever wrote this episode should be shot!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Mish wrote:
(dying laughing) Mish, you and I are more alike than I thought. I know it’s common for people to like Godfather 2 over the first one, but I’m still partial to the first. My top 3 are Godfather, Godfather 2, and A Clockwork Orange.
Batman Begins is probably in my top 10. I loved Braveheart and Shawshank. My favorite comedies are Clerks and Arthur (Dudley Moore version).
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
I feel the same way about Dogma, but not Chasing Amy. I also liked Jersey Girl. It was a change of speed for Smith and I think that’s why so many disliked it. That’s also the last Smith movie I’ve seen. I’ve thought about watching Clerks 2, but I’m pretty sure it’s just going to run it so I passed.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Yeah I know we’ve had the BB vs TDK smackdown here before. The first two Godfathers and A Clockwork Orange are generally my three favorite movies, but Braveheart was the first “real” movie that was my favorite, and a recent viewing of it has me all nostalgic for it.
MishQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Clerks 2 was actually quite entertaining.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Movies I will watch over and over no matter when they are on: Jaws, When Harry Met Sally…, Glory, Goodfellas, Blazing Saddles.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Movies I love, but have watched so often that I now will voluntarily pass on watching: LOTR trilogy, Star Wars trilogy, Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, Fletch, Vacation
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
@ Aisle424:
They’re also movies you like to comment about over and over.
mb21Quote Reply
city slickers 2: the legend of curly’s gold. all other movies are shit compared to this, with the possible exception of theodore rex.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
(dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
I can’t not watch The Fugitive or Shawshank when they are on. Like 424, I pass on Star Wars and LOTR these days when its on TV, but not for any lack or decrease in love for them.
MishQuote Reply
I can’t not watch The Hangover if it’s on.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Really? I thought that was surprisingly funny. Zach Galifinakis cracked me up pretty much throughout.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ mb21:
What I love is how I’ll watch a movie if it’s on TV even if it’s like partially through when I have the DVD in sitting on the shelf that I haven’t watched in a while (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
I’ll have what she’s having.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I thought it was hilarious. I used the same double negative that Mish did. If The Hangover is on, I’m watching it.
Thanks a lot, bin Laden.
mb21Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
Same here. I saw Old School was on this past weekend and had to stop what I was doing to watch it. I caught it at the beginning (right at the gang bang scene).
mb21Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Is that the title of an alien porn flick?
mb21Quote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Thanks, Bin Laden
BerseliusQuote Reply
Other honorable mentions, since I won’t have time to throw it into a DFP this morning
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade
Lonesome Dove
The Prestige
BerseliusQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
You’re forgetting Zack and Miri, which was pretty good. Clerks 2 is great.
My favorite thing that Kevin Smith ever did was the shortly-lived Clerks cartoon series on ABC about ten years ago. They only made six episodes before it was canceled, and only episodes two and three aired.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Just because I’m brown does not mean you can call me Bin Laden. I prefer Osama.
MishQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Much like our old, and dear, friend Al, I attempt to make expressions that are most simple in nature, as convoluted and incoherent. As possible, whenever I can.
MishQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
SAME. I actually posted a status to this effect and found a lot of people do the same. I own a ton of DVDs, and usually make a point to own all my favorite movies (same could also be said of Simpsons and Seinfeld). It sometimes boggles the mind when I will watch the Godfather or LOTR over 4.5 hours on TV when I can do it in 3, but sometimes I like being able to flip to a ballgame or Man vs Food during commercials or scenes I don’t like.
MishQuote Reply
I forgot Zack & Miri is a Kevin Smith movie because he’s not in it. That movie is fucking hilarious.
I’ve grown a little weary of Justin Long, but his Brandon St. Randy was too funny.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Z&M was great. I did forget about that. I’ve read mixed reviews on Clerks 2 so I’ve avoided it. I loved that animated Clerks series. I was disappointed when they cancelled it.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I still think it’s hilarious that the second episode they made was a clip show. It’s even more so when you consider that the network scrapped the pilot and aired the clip show as the first episode (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing).
The network also didn’t realize until after the show was in production that Jay and Bob were drug dealers, and they had to quickly rewrite them to be fireworks dealers instead (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Ignore the reviews on Clerks 2. If you liked Clerks, you’ll like Clerks 2. My wife actually liked it better than the original.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Clerks 2 was great except for Dante Rosario even being mildly attracted to Dante.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Or Rosario Dawson. Her too.
GBTSQuote Reply
Larry Jones ————> retirement at end of season
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I will be your Sherpa up the mountain of gayness.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mish:
The Dark Knight and No Country are also two movies I enjoy. Cohen brothers strike gold more often than not, as far as I’m concerned. Big Lebowski, Raising Arizona, Fargo, Miller’s Crossing, The Man Who Wasn’t There, Burn After Reading, True Grit… all excellent films. I’d love to see them do another Cormac McCarthy adaptation. I also love most of what Charlie Kaufman has done (as a writer). I thought Adaptation was brilliant, same with Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
Funny, I had the same reaction to Dogma. I saw that, and next thing you know I’m reading The God Delusion and avoiding telling my parents (both preachers, btw) that I’m an atheist.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I think it’s worth a rental. It gives a very nice closure point for the clerks. And there’s enough random funny shit in the movie to keep you entertained, like Jay’s “Goodbye Horses” rendition.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I don’t know. Based on the clip above, I’m not that impressed.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’m surprised to hear your (and Mish’s) reactions to Dogma. That was telling me shit I already knew, and in a much clumsier way (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
*spoiler*
I very much enjoyed that George Carlin was the bishop/cardinal guy and that Silent Bob knocked out the shit demon with a deodorant.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Since we’re using favorite movie’s to distract ourselves from the Cubs pending mediocrity:
Dr. Strangelove, Brazil, Animal House, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Wolf, Gimme Shelter…I keep trying to think of something from the last decade but failing.
UrkQuote Reply
I loved Carlin in Jersey Girl. Easily the most underrated part of the movie.
BerseliusQuote Reply
“Eternal Sunshine” is probably my favorite movie of the last 10 years. Kaufman is brilliant.
GBTSQuote Reply
Clerks the cartoon was awesome.
*Spoiler Alert for LOTR Trilogy*
Randal Graves: Here’s the first movie.
[walks a few steps, staring blankly]
Randal Graves: And here’s the second movie.
[walks a few steps again, pretends to trip]
Hobbit Lover: He is way off, loser.
Randal Graves: You ready for the third movie?
[walks yet again, stops, pretends to throw the ring into the volcano. Shrugs his shoulders and turns around]
WaLiQuote Reply
josh wrote:
/Obligatory’d
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I grew up with a dad for a minister, so it took things like Dogma to get me there. I knew all about the Bible and the heavy editing that went into it and the often shady history of the church–my dad taught me that stuff. But that came out in 1999, when I was a sophomore in college. I was still attending church in those days, but definitely leaning toward lukewarm on religion. By junior year, I gave that up, and just stopped thinking about religion. I didn’t read The God Delusion until 2006. You’re talking about a lifetime of conditioning to overcome. For me, it was more difficult because my dad is a very liberal Xian, so there wasn’t anything to really rebel against, if that makes sense, except my parents’ views on evolution. Evolution is really what did it for me, so I guess the fundies are right about that.
joshQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
(dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
You should read your bible, sirs. You’ll find all types of weird shit in there. Like, did you know that Jesus was a jew?
WaLiQuote Reply
Can we all agree that the best part about Jay and Silent Bob Strikes Back is when they go around kicking ass at the very end of the movie?
mb21Quote Reply
Berselius wrote:
He was good in that. I just liked the story of Jersey Girl. I could understand why hardcore Kevin Smith fans didn’t like it, but I was surprised at the overall reviews of the movie. Couldn’t help but think some critics panned it just because it was a Kevin Smith movie.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Urk:
Yeah, I’d put Dr. Strangelove in my top ten.
joshQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I always took that metaphorically.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I couldn’t get into Jay and Silent Bob at all.
joshQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
How do you feel about ‘Open Range’?? Its a guilty pleasure of mine. I love the simplicity of the story and the characters.
ABQuote Reply
I was really young when I saw Dogma, AND my dad is the Hindu equivalent of an evangelist. My family is hardcore religious, and I was somewhat in my youth.
MishQuote Reply
@ josh:
Also love the Coen brothers and McCarthy. I would love to see “Blood Meridian” made into a book, which I feel is stronger than No Country. Would love to have the Coens do it too.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Agreed, funny typo notwithstanding.
joshQuote Reply
Aisley’s Inaugural Face——> Palm: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/daily-facepalm-3-22-12.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Mish:
I’m a slow learner, I guess. I was 20 when Dogma came out. I think it almost would have been easier to reject religion if my parents had been fundamentalists or something, because I just don’t think it was ever in me to believe it, but the warm and fuzzy version I was given was more innocuous than the hellfire and brimstone version some of my friends grew up with.
joshQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
It’s the only Kevin Smith movie where the story was worth a damn. In most of his other movies it’s just window dressing for the jokes. That’s the main beef I had with Dogma, he sucks at writing serious scenes.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I guess I just didn’t find Dogma to be all that shocking or thought-provoking, religion-wise. More like a silly story that happened to involve religion.
BerseliusQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Also, it spawned these guys
http://penny-arcade.com/comic/2004/03/24
BerseliusQuote Reply