There’s nothing wrong with Ryan Dempster

Ryan Dempster has gotten off to the worst start of his Cubs career. It’s led to some wondering what is wrong or whether or not he’s done. If we look at his ERA it’s gone from 2.96 in 2008 to 3.65, 3.85 and now 7.63. Obviously something isn’t right. We see a similar trend with his FIP (3.41, 3.87, 3.99 and 5.71). Once again, one of them is not like the others.

However, if we dig a little deeper we see the reason why. His HR/FB is sitting at 22.2% right now. Pitchers don’t have a skill here. The true talent skill for Major League pitchers is right around 10%. Dempster’s HR/FB rate from 2008 through 2010 was right about 10%. The unusually high HR/FB rate has resulted in only 59.3% of the runners on base being stranded. So far, you get on against Dempster, you’ve got a good chance of scoring.

xFIP adjusts HR/FB rate to 10% and we see that Dempster’s xFIP since 2008 has been 3.69, 3.76, 3.74 and 3.69 in 2011. He’s been as consistent as possible. His 2008 season resulted in a low ERA and lower FIP because he had a lower than average HR/FB rate. It was about average in 2009 and 2010 and way above average this year. The end result is that he’s basically been the same pitcher aside from home runs all four seasons.

Dempster’s BABIP is also unusually high. It’s .324 this year and it was .280, .302, and .294 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. Well maybe his line drive rate is through the roof like Matt Garza. Nope. It’s 17.5%, which is just a bit under what he’s averaged since returning to the rotation in 2008. Even stranger, he’s given up a few more fly balls this season and flies have a lower BABIP than grounders do. Also odd, 11.1% of the balls of the bat have been infield fly balls. It had been just under 7% in 2008 and 2010 and at 12.5% in 2009. Balls are just falling in for hits against Dempster and then he’s giving up a ton of home runs.

His control is the best it’s been since returning to the rotation. In 2008 his walks per plate appearances (minus IBB plus HBP) was .098. It was .089 in 2009, .109 last year and .085 this year. 8.5% of the batters he’s faced have reached base via unintentional walk or hit by pitch. That’s it. His strikeouts per plate appearances hasn’t dropped off either. It was .219 in 2008, .205 in 2009, .228 last year when he strukout a lot of batters and back to .206 this season.

The big difference? In 2008 1.6% of plate appearances against Dempster resulted in a home run. It was 2.6% the next season and 2.7% last season. It’s 5.7% this year.

If you give up as many home runs as Dempster has it’s difficult to say he hasn’t been hit hard, but when you look at the line drive rate that’s exactly what we find. Home runs still count of course and he’s given up a ridiculous amount of them. He has not had a good season so far, but there’s no reason from what I can see to think he won’t return to what he’s done the last 3 years. Everything seems to point to him being the same pitcher and he just happens to be rather unfortunate right now in that so many fly balls are leaving the ballpark.


133 thoughts on “There’s nothing wrong with Ryan Dempster”

  3. Reminds me what I said to myself about James Shields last year. But yes, I do agree. My fantasy team hopes so too.

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  10. [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Should Soriano hit third?[/quote]www.shouldsorianohitthird.com

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  12. [quote name=Berselius]He’s better suited to it than Byrd.[/quote]Byrd would whiff at a tee right now. (dying laughing)

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  13. His bat flip is fucking absurd

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

    I have always been under the impression that one day a Soriano bat flip was gonna get someone killed on the next pitch. I remember the day he hit 3 homeruns against Atlanta in 3 at bats i thought the #2 hitter was gonna die after #3

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  20. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Fukudome’s bat flip is better. Prove me wrong.[/quote]
    I don’t need to, I have a source.

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  21. [quote name=Norm McDonald]Baseball’s steroid era was a disgrace – if you consider having fun watching baseball a disgrace.[/quote]
    .

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  22. [quote name=melissa]If bat flips after homers got the next batter killed there would be a lot of dead baseball players.[/quote]

    Soris are dangerous for the people next to the dugout.

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  24. [quote name=ZappBrannigan]I don’t need to, I have a source.[/quote]Correct.

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  26. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I [heart] Norm MacDonald.[/quote]
    Me too. He’s probably my favorite weekend update anchor, and his new show has the same pacing.

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  29. [quote name=Berselius]MB, is he also generating more fly balls than usual?[/quote]36.9% last season, 37.1% this season. A few more, but there’s not a big difference between his batted balls. Fewer groundballs, more infield flies. You’d take that trade off any day of the week, but it hasn’t worked out. It’s just a sample size issue.

    At least with Garza this season and Zambrano last year they had high LD rates after a few starts. They were getting hit very hard. Dempster hasn’t been hit that hard.

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  31. [quote name=ACT]There is a HR/FB skill, but it takes a long time to determine it due to small sample sizes. http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_hr_per_fb_skill/%5B/quote%5DTrue, but it just didn’t seem worthwhile getting into it. I believe Dempster has allowed 35 or 36 fly balls so it seemed kind of pointless to bring up something where you need such a large sample to even regress halfway.

    Good point though. I could have said what I intended to say in a better way.

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  37. Soto has thrown out 10 of 30 baserunners trying to steal so far this year. That puts him at tied for 5th in all of the MLB. So while he’s allowed the most successful stolen bases, he’s also second in the number he’s thrown out.

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  38. I would imagine Dempster’s enlarged HR/FB ratio has something to do with Quade’s refusal to pull him from games when hes clearly just tossing meatballs.

    If you multiply his HR/FB rate by his Gamer Index, he’s just fine.

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  40. [quote name=ZappBrannigan]Soto has thrown out 10 of 30 baserunners trying to steal so far this year. That puts him at tied for 5th in all of the MLB. So while he’s allowed the most successful stolen bases, he’s also second in the number he’s thrown out.[/quote]
    The fact that so many have stolen successfully against him is a bad thing…it makes me think they want to keep testing him until either he or his pitcher can hold runners better. Although I don’t know the individual philosophies of each opponent so I’m probably just grasping at straws.

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  41. [quote name=ZappBrannigan]Soto has thrown out 10 of 30 baserunners trying to steal so far this year. That puts him at tied for 5th in all of the MLB. So while he’s allowed the most successful stolen bases, he’s also second in the number he’s thrown out.[/quote]
    If all teams played each other indefinitely, we would expect all catchers to have the same cs%. i put more weight on the number of attempts.

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  42. [quote name=ZappBrannigan]Soto has thrown out 10 of 30 baserunners trying to steal so far this year. That puts him at tied for 5th in all of the MLB. So while he’s allowed the most successful stolen bases, he’s also second in the number he’s thrown out.[/quote]It’s one of those things where the other team is being too aggressive so it’s working out alright for the Cubs. I imagine as the season goes on the opposing team will get better at picking their spots to run. Maybe they’ll continue to run at will, which would actually be a good thing.

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  43. [quote name=GW]If all teams played each other indefinitely, we would expect all catchers to have the same cs%. i put more weight on the number of attempts.[/quote]I agree. I think the fact they’re running so frequently tells us a lot more about his ability to throw runners out. I also remember what the Padres announcers said and it was basically that they were going to run on Soto every chance they got.

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  44. FWIW, Soto has averaged 121 stolen base attempts per 1200 innings in his career. Hill has averaged 101. There’s no doubt about which catcher is easier to steal bases against.

    This doesn’t mean Koyie Hill should be playing. He’s not very good at baseball, but he’s definitely the superior catcher when it comes to the running game.

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  45. [quote name=bubblesdachimp]I have always wondered why when a batter has 2 strikes if the pitcher throws one really outside or high where the batter knows the catcher has no chance they dont swing so they can run to first.

    /skills at reaching on dropped third strikes[/quote]
    Doing that is probably a lot more difficult than it sounds. How many times do you see the ball sail past the catcher in a game? It really doesn’t happen that often. If a pitcher knew a batter was likely to do that, he’d intentionally throw one that looked ridiculously bad while the catcher was ready for it. It’s just not something that would make sense because the pitcher/catcher can be more prepared than the hitter is.

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  47. [quote name=mb21]FWIW, Soto has averaged 121 stolen base attempts per 1200 innings in his career. Hill has averaged 101. There’s no doubt about which catcher is easier to steal bases against.

    This doesn’t mean Koyie Hill should be playing. He’s not very good at baseball, but he’s definitely the superior catcher when it comes to the running game.[/quote]
    How many stolen bases would the other team have to be successful on to balance out the vast disparity at the plate between Soto and Hill?

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  56. [quote name=ZappBrannigan]http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/pages/als-2011-cap-standings[/quote]
    That’s the sort of post I would make if I had total writer’s block and needed to put something new on my site. He’s fucking serious about it. He’s a sitcom character.

    Actually, if I went to a producer and pitched a show revolving around a character exactly like Al, they would never go for it because they wouldn’t buy it as believable because he’s too ridiculous.

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  58. So BA has us taking Lindor in their mock draft. While i would technically be ok with this I really want one of the pitchers

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  61. In addition to Jay Jackson’s outing, he went 3-3 with two 2Bs.

    Irish O: 5 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 BB, 7-0 GO/AO, 78 pitches

    Kirk: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 0 BB, 7-2 GO/AO

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  67. Fangraphs prospect update:

    Chicago Cubs

    There is some potential bullpen depth at triple-A for the Cubs. John Gaub has a 4.66 ERA but his FIP sits at 2.66. He needs to sharpen his control but he has 19 Ks in 9.2 innings and looks like a solid future LOOGY. Chris Carpenter is enjoying his move to the ‘pen and has 12 Ks in 9.1 innings. At double-A, outfielder Brett Jackson is hitting .350/.467/.633, as well as 13 walks and six steals, in 17 games. Infielder Ryan Flaherty‘s star has dimmed but he’s looking good and could still have a future as a big league bench player. Second baseman D.J. LeMathieu is hitting .297 and has struck out just six times in 18 games. Former first rounder Josh Vitters continues to fade from the prospect picture. Hard-thrower Rafael Dolis is breezing through double-A lineups and combines his fastball velo with solid ground-ball numbers. Jae-Hoon Ha has moved from behind the dish to the outfield and has responded with a .977 OPS but he has yet to walk this season in 17 games. Infielder Junior Lake also hasn’t taken a free pass as of yet. One of my favorite sleepers, catcher Micah Gibbs, is hitting .361/.489/.417 in 36 at-bats. Arms to keep an eye on in low-A ball include Hayden Simpson, Robinson Lopez, and Austin Kirk.

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  71. [quote name=Quade]And I’m not willing to bail on that two weeks, three weeks into the season in April in Chicago. Hopefully, that’s a conversation for never.[/quote]

    I hope him and Never have this conversation soon.

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  72. [quote name=WaLi2][quote name=Quade]And I’m not willing to bail on that two weeks, three weeks into the season in April in Chicago. Hopefully, that’s a conversation for never.[/quote]

    I hope him and Never have this conversation soon.[/quote]
    Fail.

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  75. [quote name=bubblesdachimp]I saw this on another forum yesterday as well[/quote]What did she expect? (dying laughing)

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  78. [quote name=Xoomwaffle]I think the Panthers should just take Miller, run Clausen and Moore out there at QB for another year, win two games again and take Luck next year.[/quote]
    I think they should take Dareus and see what happens.

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  79. [quote name=bubblesdachimp]JG,

    how do you feel about who the Cubs should draft?[/quote]
    This is my big board as of right now:

    1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
    2. Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
    3. Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
    4. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
    5. Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
    6. Bubba Starling, OF/P, Kansas HS
    7. Daniel Norris, LHP, Tenn. HS
    8. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
    9. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia

    Jungmann would probably be the pick in this case.

    I’d also take Purke in the second round if he were there.

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  80. [quote name=Jame Gumb]This is my big board as of right now:

    1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
    2. Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
    3. Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
    4. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
    5. Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
    6. Bubba Starling, OF/P, Kansas HS
    7. Daniel Norris, LHP, Tenn. HS
    8. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
    9. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt

    Jungmann would probably be the pick in this case.

    I’d also take Purke in the second round if he were there.[/quote]
    Wow. No Jed Bradley? I like Jed Bradley quite a bit. I would of course take Purke in the second round too.

    I am also curious to see where Bauer goes. If he is there at 9 i would take him in a heartbeat. I hope either Bauer or Gray is there.

    Havign said that we will probably take the 196th best prospect

    (dying laughing)

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  81. [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Wow. No Jed Bradley? I like Jed Bradley quite a bit. I would of course take Purke in the second round too.

    I am also curious to see where Bauer goes. If he is there at 9 i would take him in a heartbeat. I hope either Bauer or Gray is there.

    Havign said that we will probably take the 196th best prospect

    (dying laughing)[/quote]
    I like Jed and Archie Bradley a lot They’re both in the 10-12 range.

    The value in the first round of this draft (aside from 1-2) is Nos. 13-15 because there’s not much difference between No. 3 and No. 15.

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  82. [quote name=Jame Gumb]I like Jed and Archie Bradley a lot They’re both in the 10-12 range.

    The value in the first round of this draft (aside from 1-2) is Nos. 13-15 14-16 because there’s not much difference between No. 3 and No. 15.[/quote]

    You forgot to account for Cubdumb.

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  84. [quote name=Xoomwaffle]You forgot to account for Cubdumb.[/quote]
    Well, the question was about what I would do. Who the fuck knows what CHC will do?

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  86. [quote name=Jame Gumb]Well, the question was about what I would do. Who the fuck knows what CHC will do?[/quote]Let’s See What Happens.

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  87. [quote name=Jame Gumb]Well, the question was about what I would do. Who the fuck knows what CHC will do?[/quote]www.whothefuckknowswhatCHCwilldo.com

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  88. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]www.whothefuckknowswhatCHCwilldo.com[/quote]
    OVblog should buy this URL as a redirect to the blog. It’s very appropriate.

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  90. I wish I had paid more attention so we could see what the farm would be like if I ran the zoo. Mine was ahead a few years ago, but I think CHC has jumped ahead.

    2006: Cubs took Colvin, I liked Snider and Drabek (but probably would have picked Snider). Wash?
    2007: Cubs – Vitters, Ryno – Porcello. Slight edge to me?
    2008: Cubs – Cashner, Ryno – Jake Odorizzi. Too early to tell?
    2009: Cubs – Bert Jackson, Ryno – Scheppers. Cubs take this one so far.
    2010: Cubs – Bigfoot, Ryno – Josh Sale. Too early to tell, but come on.

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  92. [quote name=Jame Gumb]I wish I had paid more attention so we could see what the farm would be like if I ran the zoo. Mine was ahead a few years ago, but I think CHC has jumped ahead.

    2006: Cubs took Colvin, I liked Snider and Drabek (but probably would have picked Snider). Wash?
    2007: Cubs – Vitters, Ryno – Porcello. Slight edge to me?
    2008: Cubs – Cashner, Ryno – Jake Odorizzi. Too early to tell?
    2009: Cubs – Bert Jackson, Ryno – Scheppers. Cubs take this one so far.
    2010: Cubs – Bigfoot, Ryno – Josh Sale. Too early to tell, but come on.[/quote]
    They act, you feel.

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  94. [quote name=Jame Gumb]I wish I had paid more attention so we could see what the farm would be like if I ran the zoo. Mine was ahead a few years ago, but I think CHC has jumped ahead.

    2006: Cubs took Colvin, I liked Snider and Drabek (but probably would have picked Snider). Wash?
    2007: Cubs – Vitters, Ryno – Porcello. Slight edge to me?
    2008: Cubs – Cashner, Ryno – Jake Odorizzi. Too early to tell?
    2009: Cubs – Bert Jackson, Ryno – Scheppers. Cubs take this one so far.
    2010: Cubs – Bigfoot, Ryno – Josh Sale. Too early to tell, but come on.[/quote]
    i thought the colvin pick was dumb at the time. Didnt like the Vitters pick since weieters was there. Liked cashner since i thought he would go to bullpen that year. Wasnt sure about B JAX was horrified by Simpson but we will see what happens

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  95. [quote name=dylanj]i would take cashner over odorizzi any day[/quote]
    Thanks to George Washington, you have that right.

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  96. [quote name=Mish]I think you’ll be right on 2010, Ryno.[/quote]
    I think so too, but has Sale even had a pro AB yet?

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  97. [quote name=bubblesdachimp]i thought the colvin pick was dumb at the time. Didnt like the Vitters pick since weieters was there. Liked cashner since i thought he would go to bullpen that year. Wasnt sure about B JAX was horrified by Simpson but we will see what happens[/quote]
    I was OK with the Colvin pick because I thought they did so to sign JefF7. That’s not how I would have done it, but I could see why they did it.

    I was OK with Vitters over Wieters because I thought they would eventually be comparable players and Vitters cost much less.

    I hated the Cashner pick until they said they’d try him as a starter.

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  99. i saw the guy who runs the Pats SB nation site put up a mock where the 49ers trade a future 1 for this years 28 to take Dalton.

    hell to the no

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  100. [quote name=Jame Gumb]I think so too, but has Sale even had a pro AB yet?[/quote]No I don’t think so. He definitely didn’t get any during 2010 and I believe he was in Extended Spring Training after camp broke. I assume he’ll be in Low A soon.

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  101. I jsut got a Direct Message from the guys who run the Iowa Cubs twitter. I asked them last night what J Jax was hitting

    88/89 mostly Sometimes 90

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  102. Today’s lineup vs RHP Chacin

    RF Fukudome
    SS Castro
    2B Baker
    3B Ramirez
    1B Pena
    CF Byrd
    LF Colvin
    C Captain Fundamentals
    P Coleman

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  104. [quote name=dylanj]alright ryno time for us to do our 2nd annual mock top 10 draft[/quote]
    How do you want to do it? Alternate picks or each post our own?

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  106. [quote name=dylanj]i saw the guy who runs the Pats SB nation site put up a mock where the 49ers trade a future 1 for this years 28 to take Dalton.

    hell to the no[/quote]
    Dalton will be gone by No. 8. (dying laughing)

    If a talent drops to No. 28, absolutely. I just don’t think there’s THAT much difference between Ponder (late first) and Stanzi (early third).

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  107. Robert Whitenack promoted to AA Tennessee. Dude was unstoppable at Daytona. Apparently made some major strides this offseason and AZPhil called it before the season started. 1.17 ERA and 1.29 FIP. 25:1(!) strikeout to walk ratio.

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  109. [quote name=dylanj]our own post[/quote]
    Can you set it up? I don’t think they let me write anymore.

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  110. [quote name=jtsunami]Robert Whitenack promoted to AA Tennessee. Dude was unstoppable at Daytona. Apparently made some major strides this offseason and AZPhil called it before the season started. 1.17 ERA and 1.29 FIP. 25:1(!) strikeout to walk ratio.[/quote]
    Anyone with a plus-plus pitch (knuckle curve for Whitenack) has a great shot.

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  111. 1. Carolina- Cam Newton (bust)
    2. Denver- Dareus
    3. Buffalo- Patrick Peterson
    4. Cincy- Blaine G
    5. Arizona- Von Miller
    6. Clev- AJ Green
    7. SF- Prince

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  114. [quote name=Jame Gumb]Anyone with a plus-plus pitch (knuckle curve for Whitenack) has a great shot.[/quote]
    For some reason i think the kid might be good

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  116. its hard to get excited about the draft though. i just think this season is already fucked for SF. trying to install a new coach/system and we cant even get the fucking playbook out there

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  118. All registered users will have the ability to publish content later today or this evening so if you want to publish a thread on the draft, go ahead.

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  119. [quote name=mb21]All registered users will have the ability to publish content later today or this evening so if you want to publish a thread on the draft, go ahead.[/quote]
    dont tell me what to do!

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  120. [quote name=dylanj]shit man i just meant as a comment. im not allowed to write anymore.[/quote]
    I’ll do two.

    What I think will happen…
    1. CAR – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
    2. DEN – Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
    3. BUF – Von Miller, OLB, Texas Faggies
    4. CIN – AJ Green, WR, Georgia
    5. ARI – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Mizzou
    6. DAL – Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU *trade with CLE*
    7. SF – Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska: I only guess this because it’s a need and it would be the most boring pick ever.

    What I would do as each GM…
    1. CAR – Marcell Dareus: Best combination of high floor, ceiling and positional value in the draft.
    2. DEN – Patrick Peterson: If he can stay at CB (opinions vary), best player in the draft.
    3. BUF – Cam Newton: Can develop for a year or two behind Fitzpatrick. Perfect QB for Buffalo.
    4. CIN – Blaine Gabbert: Palmer’s not bluffing. They need a QB.
    5. ARI – Von Miller: Scheme-diverse pass-rushing terror.
    6. CLE – Julio Jones: Severely underrated WR is perfect for Cleveland’s scheme, climate and schedule.
    7. SF – Robert Quinn: I think Quinn would be in the discussion for first overall had he played last season. Pass-rushing prodigy has more positional value than CB.

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  121. [quote name=dylanj]its hard to get excited about the draft though. i just think this season is already fucked for SF. trying to install a new coach/system and we cant even get the fucking playbook out there[/quote]
    Oh, they’ll get a playbook in there… Any team not accepting the fine (dying laughing) and distributing a playbook is retarded.

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  123. [quote name=dylanj]i dont know much about darues. is he a 4-3 guy?[/quote]
    Scheme diverse. He can play any position on a DL from 3-4 NT to 4-3 base end. He played 5-technique in Alabama’s 3-4, but he’d basically be Gerald McCoy in a 4-3.

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  127. [quote name=dylanj]how are you feeling about RJF as our NT?[/quote]
    OK in Manusky’s 3-4, but not in Fangio’s if he runs one like Capers. He’ll get pushed around.

    That said, there are several mid-round options for NT.

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  130. RT @BobGlauber CB Patrick Peterson on whether he got a special vibe from any team: “The 49ers. The energy we had watching film was great.”

    .

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  131. My darkhorse SF pick is Kaepernick in whichever round is appropriate (I’m thinking second).

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  133. [quote name=dylanj]gallardo sucks so far this year and its really messing my fantasy team up[/quote]
    This times four for me.

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