Since opening day is here (well, not here, but somewhere), it seems like an appropriate time to catalog the numerous failures of the Cubs under The Epstein Regime. Sure, no actual games have been played, but it’s never too early to make like mb and don your three wolves tee and start excoriating optimistic chumps. After all, future blogging historians will surely one day glorify the prescient among us who sagely pointed to the moment when the plane diverted its course towards the mountain. What’s that? …Well, sure. Most people don’t care, but there must be a core few that tirelessly track the forecasts of anonymous internet users… Nobody, you say? Yeah, but still.
By way of reassuring readers regarding my temperament, none of these moves have put me into a full Ted Lilly-, Carlos Zambrano-, or H.L. Mencken-type fury. And objectively, these moves range probably range from “practically meaningless” to “that definitely only bothers you.” Nonetheless, annoying.
10. The bunting contest. How about a home run derby? When did that become out of the question?
9. Moving Samardzija to the rotation. Not likely to end well (and I needed ten of these).
8. The rise of the Regulartron. Yes, there is undoubtedly some money to be made here. But color me completely unconvinced that it outweighs the brand value of that time machine on the North Side. And nothing drives me crazier than the constant blather of these things.
7. Leaving WGN. Hasn’t happened yet, obviously. I am among those out-of-staters dreading paying for MLB Extra Innings because the Cubs left the sole remaining national affiliate in favor of a glorified SportsChannel/FoxsportsChicago/CSN. If they can work out a deal with the new NBC network or find another way around the regional restrictions, I will promptly redact, but there is a lot of downside here among casual fans in particular.
6. Trading Zambrano. Yeah, I know, the veterans were tired of him and that was the last straw and all the rest. But couldn’t we turn the page on The Hendry Era by getting rid of someone like oh, say:
5. Reed Johnson. No? OK, fine.
4. Caving on Theo’s compensation. I’m sure that some folks are completely enamored with Kurcz and Carpenter, but I’m not one of them. However, Bud was obviously reticent to step in here, due to the future consequences of his decision. Why not call his bluff? We know that Theo put on his lawyer pants and drew up a pretty good case, complete with the glaring absence of any precedent. What’s the worst that could happen? Losing “uberprospect” Josh Vitters? It would have been worth it on the off-chance that Bud decided to tell Lucchino and Co.: “You will take Michael Brenly and like it.”
3. Ryan Flaherty. There’s no space on the 40-man for a 25 year-old lefty-hitting middle infielder with some pop? Did all of Koyie Hill’s detached appendages require their own spot?
2. Sitting out free agency. A wise man once said, “The bottom line is you can’t go out and buy young players, there is no opportunity to do that anymore.” So, what exactly is the plan? It’s nice to say that the organization needs to rebuild from the ground up, but what does that really mean in practice? Developing homegrown talent takes years, especially if your current minor leaguers more or less stink, and your only hypothetical advantage is scouting and developing marginally better than everyone else. Sure, free agents are expensive. Thing is, they are likely to get more expensive as their supply dwindles due to teams increasingly coercing young talent to sign long-term deals. It’s not like the Cubs were reluctant to spend money this offseason, as they seem to have offered in the neighborhood of $100 million dollars for three Cubans (allegedly), a McDonalds, and a vocational high school in the Dominican Republic. It would have been nice to sign a few vets likely to still be contributors if and when the young talent starts coming up, instead of the Maholms and DeJesuses of the world.
1. Failure to put a specialized strategist on the bench. As far as I can tell, “smart” front offices around the majors swooned over Dale Sveum for his tendency to pore over spray charts. That’s all well and good, but is it so out of the question to put someone on the bench who is actually numerate? It’s not like no one has ever considered the effects of various individual strategies on seasonal basis. There would still be plenty of room for leader-of-men types that inspire confidence by instigating bean-ball wars. Theo and Co. had the capital to really take a chance here, and instead they went traditional with Sveum et al.; the bench remains sacrosanct and decidedly quant-free. What we did get was a voluminous manual full of corporate speak, to be read and digested by a group of functional illiterates. The Cubs Way indeed.
Comments
Blurst.
MishQuote Reply
I just mistook Eric Wedge for Mike Hargrove
BerseliusQuote Reply
Ichiro’s 4 hits are clearly a result of his knowing where to get lunch here
BerseliusQuote Reply
You talkin’ bout the manager? Bench coach? A bench player with saberpowers?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
You forgot “Getting discovered in a Starbucks by a guy in a red-hooded sweatshirt.” Clearly, that proves he’s no master strategist.
joshQuote Reply
Considering the new CBA this is probably what bothers me the most. Either the Cubs get lucky and all of Jackson, Rizzo, McNutt and maybe even Samardzija pan out or the Cubs are going to be waiting several years before they’re seeing additional talent coming up through the system.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I rationalize this because neither of the two biggest options (Fielder and Pujols) were great matches. I might have liked to see them go for a pitcher, and maybe they did. I don’t think putting ridiculous money on either of those two guys would have sat well, not with me anyway.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Both were paid more money than I think they’re worth and I don’t want the Cubs to spend bad money just to acquire talent, but there were other free agents.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I guess they could have tried to get Mark Buehrle, CJ Wilson or Jose Reyes (or some others I didn’t even think of) but I’m guessing they all would prefer to go to a contender. The Cubs were likely in “no-man’s land” this past offseason.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I have opened an insurmountable lead in fantasy baseball.
GBTSQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEzVoszVhdk
http://baseball-prose.com/
mb21Quote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/forum.html?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=10.0#postid-46
mb21Quote Reply
Edit: I guess MB just linked to this so nothing to see here.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ mb21:
(dying laughing)
Albert Pewjoles.
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS, do you have those alvin images you put together over the last year? I’m too lazy to look through the threads to find them, but I think they deserve a gallery.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I just put them in the forum thread.
GBTSQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/28/2-15-billion-for-the-dodgers-mercy/
BerseliusQuote Reply
The biggest mistake of this off season will be handing out 37 Million to two teenage Cuban Baseball players, ruining Concepcion by sending him to AAA, and spending 27 Million on a player who has yet to play professionally.
Maybe its media that has the Concepcion to AAA buzz, but he needs to start in the low minors first. I think the Soler signing is great at 10-15 Million. But 27.5 Million?
The second biggest mistake will be putting Samardzjia in the rotation and not starting Wells. The Cubs aren’t going anywhere. The whole point of F7 Rotation is saving money. Chris Volstead (I believe) had two options left at the time of the deal. The Cubs can save some Major League Service time and delay his arby numbers a bit. Moving Wells to the bullpen is not the right way to do this. I’m for Samardzija getting a chance if only because his transformation has been ‘miraculous’ in ways numbers do not quite portray.
PezcoreQuote Reply
@ Pezcore:
Wells and Volstad have options, but they have enough service time that they have to go on waivers before the Cubs send them to the minors. They wouldn’t make it through.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I assume the Concepcion to AAA thing is a joke. He should definitely be starting in the low minors.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t know. I can’t really get on board with this thread. Everyone’s going to have individual transactions that they don’t like or don’t get. We knew going in that this was a long-term rebuild.
joshQuote Reply
Samardzjia’s transformation can be explained by one number: 14. This transformation has occurred over just 14 ST innings. I could take a 14-inning sample from any pitcher’s career and make it look like they’d “turned a corner.” This is all just an exercise in selective endpoints and confirmation bias.
With that said, might as well throw him out there. The team will suck either way. I just want this over-reliance on a tiny sample to cease.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
When did this Concepcion to AAA rumor start? That’s a new one to me
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’m pretty sure the Cubs are using more than fourteen innings to make this decision, as much as I disagree with it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Same here. I hadn’t heard that until Pezcore posted it. Definitely a shittastic idea, though.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Ok, but what outside of those 14 innings indicates JefF7 can be an effective SP?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
The only thing that makes sense is scouts, which we don’t know shit about.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I’ve read it in a couple articles over the last month.
mb21Quote Reply
So is the convo going on here, or in the forum?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I know I’m being pedantic here, but I think there’s a big difference between “F7 to the rotation looks like a fucking stupid move” and “ZOMG Sveum/Thoyer made this decision based on 14 spring training innings”.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
But if they’re seeing something different about him–and I readily grant they are, or seem to have–then they’re seeing it in this small ST sample. Because there’s little else in his body of work to suggest this level of success.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I like how the “Best of OV” thread is in the “Chicago Cubs” forum.
92% of the discussion at OV is about OV,, yet there is no OV forum in the OV Forum.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
FWIW, most of what I’ve read about the so-called transformation also goes back to the second half of last year. His peripherals still stink though.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I think it’s a stupid decision because I think it was made based on 14 innings. This team is going to suck. If they want to give F7 one last shot to earn his keep, fine by me. But stop with “transformation” talk. Just say he’s been working hard and you’re going to give him a chance to prove this ST success isn’t a fluke.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, they’re using the last 42 innings from last season and 14 spring training innings. Combine that with scouts who have been wrong about F7 all along and you get F7 ——> rotation.
It’s not like walks were the only thing holding F7 back. The guy has given up 8.2 hits per 9 and almost all of that is in relief. He gave up 9 hits per 9 in the minors and most of that was starting. He struckout only 6.3 per 9 in the minors and 7.5 as a reliever at the big league level. Including HBP and discarding IBB he gave up 5.3 free passes per 9 last year in what was his breakout season. This is a guy who gives up too many hits, too many free passes, doesn’t keep the ball in the park well enough and doesn’t strike enough batters out.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
We’re rockin’ both places, yo.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
But those are relief appearances. Adding those innings in doesn’t recommend their decision.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
But other than that he’s been awesome.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
They’re still innings. If you want to talk stats we have plenty of ways to compare reliever and starter production. And this is why scouts are paid to do what they do.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
People see a guy who is performing better than his career would indicate he would so they think something has changed. The same is true with Joe Mather who was only league average in the PCL each of the last 2 years. He’s nearly 30 years old, has sucked at the MLB level, but over 52 plate appearances he’s kicking ass.
What bothers me the most is that one of the things Thoyer said at the convention was that decisions wouldn’t be made because of spring training yet here they are making decision after decision based on performance in spring training.
If they want F7 to start, they need to justify it. To do that they need to show he’s more deserving of a spot than Randy Wells and that can’t be done. As long as that fact remains, F7 has no business starting for the Cubs. One thing being ignored in the whole F7 rotation talk is that the value Wells has not only to the Cubs, but in a trade declines significantly once he’s bumped to the rotation. Wells doesn’t have a lot of value, but he deserves better than this IMO.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, I get all that. I just don’t see how any of it cashes out into JefF7 as an SP. I guess what I’m really objecting to is the pretense that this is a reasoned decision, instead of the team taking one last flier on a guy they spent a lot money on, before they consign him to the scrap heap of RPs.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Somehow I missed the rule in the MLB bylaws where teams have to explain in excruciating detail every roster move to their fans.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’d like to know how people would honestly feel about this decision if Hendry were still running the team. I remember last year when Quade and/or Hendry said that F7 was moving to the bullpen full time every fan wondered why it took so damn long to figure out what everybody already knew. Obviously we’ll never know, but I’d bet good money if Hendry were the GM and Quade the manager this decision would be mocked by nearly every Cubs fan around. It would be used as yet another example of why Hendry had to go.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I agree with most of this. I guess the Mather thing doesn’t bother me because most teams use ST to sort out their bench. Yeah, it’s silly to rely on small samples, but the reality is that the bench guys won’t matter much, and if they do, well then your season is fucked anyway because you lost someone important. So if that’s a failing, it’s certainly not one unique to the Cubs.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Could F7 close? Because if he can, why not trade Marmol at damn near peak value and use F7 in that role?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I feel better about it with Hendry because the feeling would be that Hendry was doing it while ignoring the statistical stuff that says it’s a dumb move, while the current org is doing it despite the shitty stats.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
This front office probably won’t be good for that.
I base that mostly on the fact that Nick Cafardo is the best Cubs beat reporter.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I think people would treat it a lot like they did the Colvin experiment, i.e. as Hendry trying to redeem another of his questionable draft picks.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Posted by Bruce Miles. Chris Volstad and a hobbit
BerseliusQuote Reply
We should be clear, though: Joe Mather is terrible.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Why is Volstad hanging out with an old lesbian?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
They also kept Samardzija around before spring training even started. His contract was up, they could have non-tendered him and no one would have complained.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
That doesn’t make sense…but then again, you are quite small.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Well, based on 294 MLB PAs spread over three seasons. Based on his minor league numbers I’m more prepared to say that he’s simply not very good (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
So they must have had someone telling them good things about him before this. Still doesn’t make me think well of the decision or the basis on which it appears to have been made.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, it’s more 11 years worth of pedestrian MiLB numbers that are leading me to this conclusion. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I’m not upset at all about the possiblity of Joe Mather making the roster. It’s tough to get worked up over one replacement level player making the roster over another one. I like Mather because of his handedness and positional flexibility, but meh
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Pretty much. I just dread a hot start from him leading to a full Reeding. Or worse, a Double Gaetti.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Yeah, it doesn’t bother me that Mather will or might make the team. It’s just an example of how someone has “transformed” themselves into a better player.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
I wonder if there was a possibility that there were some other teams interested in F7 that forced them to retain him at a higher-than-minimum pricetag. In the grand scheme of baseball the $2.4MM isn’t that big of a deal, and if he truly does suck after this season, release…lesson learned even though it should’ve been learned a while ago.
The other thing is that F7 started working out in Arizona after Thanksgiving up until now, so there were probably scouts and trainers there checking up on him. That’s another 4+ months of blackbox information we as fans aren’t privy to. He could still be complete shit and the scouts don’t want to believe it, but if he’s turned a corner, it wasn’t an expensive Barry Zito gamble and it paid off.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Now we’re going to see some Where’s Hobbit photos popping up around here. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, I don’t care. It sounds like you like him for the same reason I like Clevenger over Castillo.
mb21Quote Reply
New GoT trailer: http://bcove.me/yf1eolim
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
that sounds like something you’d see on a huge boobs anal website
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Manager would be nice, but the team that ultimately does this will probably start with a bench coach.
GWQuote Reply
NFL afficionados…
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/3/21/2891830/nfl-trade-deadline-rule-changes
So each team has a chance.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Is there a way to set up a poll? I would like to grab what everyone mentions (with a link to the discussion) and make an uOV poll or something.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Like the OT rule, not sure how I feel about the replay rule
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GW:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Unfortunately there isn’t one that you have access to, but I’d be more than happy to set one up and send you the necessary piece of code to add to a post. If you’re ready for the poll to be set up, or when you are, send me an email at dmick89 [at] gmail.com with the question and answers.
mb21Quote Reply
This was kind of fun:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/3/28/2908044/manager-wins-above-expectancy
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
False.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GW:
I know this has been discussed before, but surely stats aren’t something that can easily be used on an AB-by-AB or pitch-by-pitch basis. That’s what managers and bench coaches are doing during games, calling signs to the 3B coach on offense and calling pitches to the catcher on defense. I know they pick PHs and RPs based on matchups and what-not, but that’s not the kind of stats you’re talkin’ bout. Using an overall stats-based strategy seems to be an organizational strategy to be deployed over entire seasons. The GM can do this. I realize it can do this more easily with a manager who is on-board, but I’m not sure it’s the manager who is the key player here.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Pezcore wrote:
It does seem an overreaction to the new CBA. The chances of those two being long-term producers are slim. And if Soler is worth $27M, why is Cespedes only worth $36?
GWQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I disagree.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Cespedes is much older, no?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
sure they are.
the bottom line is that managers hired first and foremost for their ability to lead and inspire. i’m not discounting the importance of that. however, i think there are a myriad of decisions throughout the game that cost fractions of runs that could amount to a couple of wins per season, if properly executed. take a look at some of those running threads on managerial decisions that mgl does periodically. the guy’s an asshole, but he has a pretty good grasp on microstrategies and their outcomes.
the idea that in-game strategy decisions should be restricted to those who played the game is ludicrous.
GWQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Homer: Show me where in the rule book it says that a human can’t participate in Robot Wars!
Guy: It’s the first rule!
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
yes, but he’s only 26. and the second best hitter in that league, by all accounts. seems to me that the chances of someone as young as soler turning out to be as good as cespedes are <50%
GWQuote Reply
http://disciplesofuecker.com/3-questions-chicago-cubs/
MishQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I think that’s a week old. I have some thoughts on it, but now I’m confused as to whether to post it here or in the forums. (dying laughing)
Also mb, is it possible to add the macros to the forums?
MishQuote Reply
@ josh:
the individual decisions are bothersome, but its the direction of the “long-term rebuild” that worries me the most. theo seems to have been caught completely off guard by the new cba, and his response to this point has been: “well, we will just scout better.”
GWQuote Reply
I liked the theo hire because I had confidence that he would be able to read the market correctly, adjust his strategy accordingly, and not be married to ideas like “long-term rebuilds” if, for example, the ability to buy young players was completely removed. maybe he will, i dunno.
GWQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
My problem is the transformation talk isn’t coming from fans watching spring training baseball. It’s apparently coming from scouts who relay it back to columnists, etc. (like Keith Law).
It’s not out the questions that there is such a thing as transformation and that Samardzija “transformed”. Hamilton transformed from a drug addict to an all world baseball player. Jose Bautista transformed from a replacement level player to an MVP candidate. Even players like Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter “transformed”.
The thing that irks me is that the idea of Samardzija transforming is completely dismissed. It’s not even a sample size issue. If a player looks or plays different, he’s transformed form what he used to be.
You don’t need a 100 game sample size to see that Soto lost 15 pounds. You don’t need a 100 game sample size to see that Byrd’s face is healed or that Troy Glaus’ cataracks surgery worked.
All that most (like me) Samardzija “supporters” are saying is that take a wait and see approach. Don’t immediately say it’s failed before it’s started. It’s annoying to read the wrath of you guys toward him day in and day out. I’ve become a regular reader for the insight and different topics that are talked about daily. It’s been all “Samardzija sucks” for two straight weeks.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
GW wrote:
GW wrote:
So are you looking to promote someone from mom’s basement to the dugout?
Or finding a manager who may or may not have played the game who is willing/capable to immerse himself in data and data-driven decision-making?
I can see it in a bench coach, maybe. I can definitely see it in a GM who has a staff of people, some of whom only do data. But the manager has so much other stuff to contend with 24/7 in babysitting millionaires, doing the beat writers’ jobs for them, monitoring the health of 25 guys on a daily basis, while constantly traveling around the country — I just can’t see them having the bandwidth to absorb enough stats-based baseball theory to the level where they can deploy it at will.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
jtsunami wrote:
It’s just reactionary. The blogosphere seems to have accepted his transformation as a given, and guys like doog have taken it a step further and said, in essence, “no, he really didn’t even suck before, you are just misreading the stats.” not to pick on him, but that seems to be the gist of his argument. as such, it’s nice to have the counterpoint provided here.
GWQuote Reply
Liam Neeson —-> The Dark Knight Rises?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/28/liam-neeson-dark-knight-rises_n_1385253.html
MishQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
i agree, and i’ll add that he probably wasn’t all that intelligent to begin with. all these are reasons to have a devoted strategist in game. their are probably 500 guys around the country with advanced degrees in quantitative fields who would gladly give up porn for the rest of their lives to be given a shot as bench coach. hell, start them out in the minors if you need to evaluate them first.
GWQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Well, you know…
[spoiler]Ra’s al Ghul can never die.[/spoiler]
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ jtsunami:
You’re not giving an argument for F7’s move to rotation, so much as running an equivocation on “transformation.” But I digress.
Look, I’m not denying that JefF7 has figured some things out and may be able to up his game. What I’m denying is that we have any reliable data that points to this conclusion–and we have a lot of peripheral stats from his supposedly “good” relief appearances at the end of last season that seem to belie the claims of improvement being proffered here and elsewhere. We’re obviously not privy to what the scouts are saying, and that’s a massive gap between what the team knows and what we know. So I acknowledge that it’s quite possible F7 has improved; but given his peripherals, it doesn’t seem likely.
Finally, Hamilton didn’t figure anything out besides the fact that he needed to put down the crack pipe. He was widely acknowledged as a can’t-miss guy from the minute he was drafted number one overall by TB. But I grant that a guy “figuring it out” happens. Maybe it’s happened with F7. But that’s going to have to be proven over the course of the season, because the most reliable data set we have now says that F7 is a pretty mediocre pitcher.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
That’s not technically true, but you sort of get what I mean.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
[spoiler]What is dead may never die[/spoiler]
/GoT
BerseliusQuote Reply
I kinda really like Brandon McCarthy now, as a personality.
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/28/2908790/amen-brother
MishQuote Reply
Apparently the Dodgers deal was 100% cash.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mish:
THIS
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Randy Moss approves.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
[spoiler]Being 7 months removed from finishing the books, I’d have to say the Iron Born are the ones I think about the most. All those characters are fascinating, and Theon’s character arc is incredible IMO. Really excited to see how Pyke/Balon/Asha (Yara)/Damphair are portrayed in Season 2. And especially excited to see Victarion and Euron Crow’s Eye in S3.[/spoiler]
MishQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I wonder what a mountain of $2.15B looks like.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah I’m aware of the Ras and his “immortality”, but I am skeptical of them pulling that hear.
On a side note, there was an advanced screening last week of TDKR and apparently the audience gave it a standing ovation at the end. Let’s hope it’s that good.
MishQuote Reply
DPLEETED
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mish:
[spoiler title=”Minor Game of Thrones spoilers”]
I completely disagree. The Ironborn fucking bore me to tears, for the most part (dying laughing). Pretty much my only favorite part is Theon in book two, just because it’s so easy to laugh at what a fucking idiot he is at every turn.[/spoiler]
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
agree
GWQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Don’t tell me what to do
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
Small sample size, right? You could say the same thing about standing pat, or about signing Prince Fielder to more money than some team’s total payrolls. If this off-season was an overreaction, maybe by next off-season he will have prepared. If he got off on the wrong foot with some people, that doesn’t meant it’s a wash. If I had polled everyone here on whether the first season would be punted 3 months ago, 100% of people would have said “yes.” I guess I don’t see why all the hand-wringing about it now. Let Sveum play F7. If Concepcion was an overreaction, then the Cubs are one of the few teams that can take the hit, wash their hands, and move on. I just see this as a deep-down we all really wanted a WS at any cost in the first season type of reaction.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I can’t argue with you today.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yeah, the Cubs have enough money to make mistakes on guys like Concepcion or Soler, and I’d rather they make those mistakes with high-upside guys than with overpriced vets.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
[spoiler]Haha well then. They still fall behind someone like Jaime for me, but I really enjoy Theon/Victarion. I think both are legit dark horses for the Iron Throne.[/spoiler]
MishQuote Reply
[spoiler]I will admit I did not enjoy the Ironborn chapters when I was actually reading the book; I just keep reading analyses over at various sites (westeros.org, wic.net, towerofthehand.com), and they’ve spilled some really good ink on them (Theon specifically), which is why that interest has heightened. Part of it is also likey due to GRRM releasing a Theon chapter f[/spoiler]
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
[spoiler title=”spoil that shit, Mish”]
I’m not a big fan of their plotlines, but I won’t deny that one of my major negatives on the Iron Islands storyline(s) is blaming it in part for all the plot bloat in the series. The same goes for Brienne wandering the wilderness in book 4, despite the fact that I’m generally a Brienne fan[/spoiler]
BerseliusQuote Reply
Carlos Zambrano is pitching today. Getting knocked around by the Astros but only one run given up so far thanks to good defense behind him and a nice pickoff play. Five walks, too. Ewww.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
jtsunami wrote:
I don’t dismiss it at all. I’ve said that it’s entirely possible, but I don’t believe I need to say that with every comment I make on the matter.
You mention Hamilton and Bautista. Which scout saw that? I don’t remember anyone talking about Bautista as if he had become a really good hitter before the fact. I definitely know that scouts weren’t talking about Hamilton in that way other than the typical “he’s always had potential” line.
Let me put it this way: I don’t believe that scouts can accurately predict or project which players have changed and which ones haven’t. I don’t have any evidence that is true, but there’s also no evidence that they can do so. Every year there’s a player who out-performs expectations and every year the scouts talk about how something is different. Every year this player is paid more than he’s worth and every year he regresses.
I believe scouts do many things well, but i don’t believe this is one of them. I’ll put it another way too: those who believe the amateur draft is a crapshoot (I think that’s most people, but definitely not me) can’t possibly believe that a scout can tell whether or not F7 has transformed.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GW wrote:
Who? I don’t think I’ve read this.
mb21Quote Reply
josh wrote:
Actually, my reaction is all about good decision making. I should add there are several things this front office has done that I really like. There are several I don’t much like. Basically, it’s the same as any other front office. Some things make the fans happy and some don’t.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Our old friend doogolas is all over one of the other Cubs blogs with this stuff, can’t remember which one. Maybe Cubs-den
BerseliusQuote Reply
Still can’t believe the Dodgers were sold for over $2 billion. In cash.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Haha sorry about that. I went back and spoilered previous comments.
[spoiler]I don’t really disagree with you on any points, and I was reading through those Ironborn chapters (and the Brienne ones you mentioned), I labored through them as well. I just find analyzing their character arcs after the fact has been fun for me. There was a lot of bloat in the latter books, including the Martell’s (specifically the Captain of the Guard or whover).[/spoiler]
MishQuote Reply
I posted this in the GoT thread on the forums, but here are 6 clips from the upcoming episode released by HBO. I am not watching these, however. I will wait til Sunday.
http://winteriscoming.net/2012/03/six-clips-from-ep-11-the-north-remembers/
MishQuote Reply
@ mb21:
That’s shockingly high. And a lot of people said the Ricketts overpaid for the Cubs!
I was thinking the other day: I wonder if the Cubs insistence on playing as many day games as they do lowers their value on the TV market. Their most common home timeslot is a time when many people are at work and thus can’t watch TV. I don’t bother with CSN because I feel like the number of times I could watch a game wouldn’t justify the cost. I can’t be alone in that, but then again, I’m not a huge TV fan.
That’s beside the fact that many players over the years have asserted that playing so many day games when virtually everyone switched over to virtually all night games hurts the team over the course of the season.
joshQuote Reply
Re: ASOIAF. I’ve never had to wait on a book in a series to finish before. I started reading the books a little before ADWD came out and finished AFFC shortly after I got ADWD in the mail (Amazon pre-order). Followed shit on Tower of the Hand for a while, but haven’t checked up on it in probably 5 months. It sucks waiting for the next book to come out, especially since he hasn’t really started writing it yet (Yeah he released a few chapter which I haven’t read yet, but I think those are items he already wrote before that didn’t make ADWD). It’s frustrating and will be even more frustrating if he doesn’t finish. Luckily Season 2 is coming out on TV. I don’t know if I could have made it the 5 years between ASOS and AFFC and then another 7 for ADWD though.
I don’t think I’ll start another series that is unfinished again because I’m an impatient motherfucker (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Mish:
[spoiler]Yeah, the Dorne stuff was mostly dull too. I’d like to think that the scene at the end of AFFC where Doran Martell is pushing pieces around a cyvasse board while he tells his daughter about the long con he’s been playing on the rest of the seven kingdoms is a nod to the fact that some of those chapters are just Martin pushing the pieces around so shit could happen down the road[/spoiler]
BerseliusQuote Reply
josh wrote:
That’s actually not true. This year there are 55 night and weekend home games. That leaves only 26 weekday afternoon games out of 162 game schedule. Throw in one or two road weekday games if you want, but those are pretty damn rare.
While it may be a factor, the BIGGEST factor right now is that they are locked into deals made when the Trib was trying to profit off the Cubs as much as possible on the non-baseball side by keeping their broadcast package artificially low (while then turning around and charging market price for advertising time). The Trib did some good things to move the Cubs past the Wrigley ownership, but they held back on the baseball side so they could use it to make money on the broadcast side.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
[spoiler title=”Don’t read if you haven’t read A Dance with Dragons”]I agree with that. It’s setting up the beginning of the end, I hope. Two of the new characters that I do love from aDWD are Lord Connington and Prince Aegon.[/spoiler]
MishQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
All right, so I exaggerated, I guess it just feels like they are always one when I’m trying to work. That said, it still seems like that’s higher than the average team, but maybe not enough to totally devalue the team.
So when you say they are locked into deals, you mean the TV deals?
joshQuote Reply
@ Mish:
[spoiler name=”GOT”]Yeah I like those two the most from ADWD. Agree with B’s comments about the bloat regarding ironborn and Brienne.[/spoiler]
WaLiQuote Reply
josh wrote:
3 months ago was after the new cba and after it became clear that they actually were punting, so this is probably correct, but it is meaningless, imo
GWQuote Reply
Today’s lineup:
Speedy CF
Crappy 2B
Throwy SS
Breaky LF
Notrammy 3B
Pudgy C
Retready 1B
Grindy RF
Spelly P
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
(dying laughing), this morning’s Mariners-Giants game was blacked out in the Bay Area. And no local tv networks were covering it (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
I meant right after Theo was hired, before the CBA, most people would still have said this season was a wash.
joshQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/28/pro-tip-dont-build-a-downtown-stadium-if-no-one-lives-downtown/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
BerseliusQuote Reply
josh wrote:
yes, maybe, but the new cba has changed the landscape rapidly. young players are going to have less leverage, and will be more apt to sign undermarket extensions. as a result, each year’s free agent crop is going to dwindle. the cubs seem to have gone the marginals wins/dollar route while at the same time throwing around quite a bit of money in other areas
GWQuote Reply
@ josh:
many, but there were definitely a few of us after the cba was ratified that looked around and said, “the plan that theo has preached just got a lot more difficult to execute. might be time to rethink things.”
GWQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Fucking crazy
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ GW:
I don’t think that we can fully evaluate the impacts of the CBA until we see a draft or two first. It’s theoretical at this point. Will young players hold out for more money, forcing teams to decide “This year and not next year” v. hedging bets on weaker players, or will players tend more to cede to the allotted amounts and give up on the big dollars? I just don’t think any of us can say for sure what the impacts will be, and I further would wager that the guys who have dedicated their lives to knowing these rules have a better idea of what to expect than we do, or that they’ll be better able to adjust. Not saying it’ll be smooth, but I’m saying it’s too early to judge how Theo’s reaction rates compared to other GM’s. He doesn’t have to be a perfect GM or make all the perfect choices for the team to be able to win.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Radio too.
if I recall correctly, Comcast is through 2019, WGN TV is through 2014. I can not find anything about the WGN Radio contract. It must be getting studied by top men.
Aisle424Quote Reply
josh wrote:
theo seems pretty certain.
GWQuote Reply
@ josh:
Let’s not forget this guy was dealt a pretty shitty hand to start with. He may want to make moves and the moves aren’t there to make.
joshQuote Reply
KLaw had nice things to say about castro in his top ten players in 2017 article. Castro was 8
We know Castro is an extremely gifted hitter with the potential to win the batting-average title (please, it doesn’t make a player the “batting champion” any more than frying an egg makes you Top Chef) and the potential for a 50 doubles/20 homers peak. And we know he’d probably be a solid-average defender at third or at second if he had to move off short, which, while not a lock, is at least a possibility after a year and a half of below-average defense. As long as he stays in the infield, his bat is going to keep him in the upper echelon of big leaguers, and while he’s not any kind of a runner, he’s athletic enough that he might become a fringe-average (or better) defender at short, at which point he’ll supplant Derek Jeter as the “player whose glove is most overrated because of his bat.”
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ GW:
Yeah, fly on the wall, right? I’d love to know what they’re really saying, but it’s not like the guy’s going to detail his plans for us schmucks.
joshQuote Reply
I’m thinking that no member of the Ricketts family speak on baseball subjects, ever.
Yes, all you need is a couple of 10 WAR players, which are readily available. OTOH, Sveum is not much better:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder: made me laugh but does nothing to tell us who’s at 2nd.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ mb21: what blows my mind the most is that the winning bidders had previously bid $1.4b (or $1.6b or something). So that got declined and it was such a can’t-miss deal that they said “fuck it” and scrounged up another $600m? i could be wrong about the details here but to me that suggests that $2b may in fact be an undervaluation.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
KLAW
Samardzija 91-94 in the first, 94-96 in the second, average slider, needs a haircut.
MishQuote Reply
1. Play Hard
2. Stay healthy
3. ???????
4. WORLD SERIES
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Ricketts talks out of his ass quite frequently. I wonder what the biggest variance has been from a projection, though. I’m guessing the biggest absolute variance was on the losing side, but it would be mildly interesting to know which team has been the biggest surprise in the last few years.
joshQuote Reply
From a sabermetric point of view, that is.
joshQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Touché
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ josh:
I think the 2005 White Sox beat their projections by close to 20 games.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Sullivan in the booth.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Short version: Looks like JefF7 to me.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
GW wrote:
I was one who didn’t think it would matter much, but the more I thought about the more I realized the other people were right.
mb21Quote Reply
GBTS wrote:
So which players are mean to him and going to get unfair coverage this year?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
joshQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Is there any other?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Shark is going to make the rotation.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Bold prediction.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I’m guessing it’ll be Soriano, Castro and Soto.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ josh:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/god_and_500/
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Racist
joshQuote Reply
F7 looks like a completely different starter than he did earlier this spring. He walked someone today.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
in the rotation? That wouldn’t even surprise me as much as it would have 2 weeks ago.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Right, that’s one element, and that may well account for the White Sox winning 20 more than projected. You have to some calls go your way, you have to get lucky, all that stuff. But the fact that players do learn from having multiple plate appearances or do get injured means that some of the luck involved comes down to when you play a team at a give time. Over the season, you expect that to average out, but there are rare instances when a team stays lucky. I’m not counting on that at all, btw, I was just curious which teams “beat” their projections by the kind of margin Ricketts mentioned. My guess is that it’s rare, not common as he thinks. Still, entertainining. Sometimes examining the black swan events is fun.
joshQuote Reply
This is indeed a weird question by Josh, but those of you who live in Chicago: http://obstructedview.net/forum.html?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=16.0#postid-99
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
I would include calls going one way as lucky. Anything the team doesn’t have control over would be luck in my opinion. That also includes when you play a team and so forth.
If you take teams with different talent levels you get a larger spread than you would if all teams were equal. I think 1 standard deviation in wins for a projection is about 10.
mb21Quote Reply
I bet the Theo compensation is redone after this: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/17669/sox-pitcher-carpenter-says-he-needs-surgery
mb21Quote Reply
Did F7 really just strike out the side? I don’t have the feed on yet.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Really? Didn’t he pass a physical with the Boston doctors before they agreed to it? If I were the Cubs I’d just say “too bad, should’ve done your homework” (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dale Sveum wrote:
I agree. Instead of winning 70 they’d win 35 and set an MLB record for worst team ever.
mb21Quote Reply
F7 triples?!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I would too and maybe that’s what happens, but I can’t imagine the Sox won’t be pissed off about this.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
There are some psychological/motivational reasons for this. It’s much easier to tell someone who is struggling in ST that he needs to spend more time in the minors for a tune-up than it is to tell someone who is performing exceptionally well.
ACTQuote Reply
And the question may be more about whether or not the Cubs knew about it.
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
It’s crazy how many things broke the White Sox way that year. That’s the only chance you have of beating a projection by 20 games.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
K’s the side and triples
Actually shitty pitcher or not, he’s on a pretty good run. Enjoy it while it lasts….
joshQuote Reply
Runner on third no outs? Zero runs.
(dying laughing)
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Leadoff triple, still can’t score (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
So Cub.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
He had a rep as a good-hitting P in college, IIRC.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I think that’s probably true, too.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Well there’s your 10 WAR right there.
joshQuote Reply
I know it’s early, but so far, I thinking Felix Hernandez is in the lead for the Cy Young award and the MVP is a tight race between Suzuki and Ackley. ROY goes to Cespedes. Thoughts?
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I’ll take a wait-and-see approach.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Whatever F7 is doing is generating tons of ground balls.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Those are definitely players who have played regular season games so far.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Dale Sveum agrees.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Good start for Shark. I am ok with this
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Wonder if he’s worked in a sinker.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Jesus H. Tapdancing Christ, this fucking compensation shit will never end.
BerseliusQuote Reply
With that triple, Samardzija is now batting.400. I guess this means he’ll be batting third this year.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
To make the trade more equal, the Sox are sending someone over to break Theo’s arm. Fair is fair.
ACTQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Starlin Castro —————-> transformed into a player with a sub .300 OBP.
mb21Quote Reply
I’m really curious to see the Pitch F/X on F7.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Soriano ——-> transformed into player whose OBP is about 25 points lower than his AVG
That’s actually not that surprising.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I’d attribute that to Sori’s influence, but we all know that his new leg kick has transformed him back to being a star.
ACTQuote Reply
@ mb21:
They should bench him for Darwin “Bam Bam” Barney
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
(dying laughing) Soriano has a .350 batting average and a .326 OBP (before today’s game).
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Brooks baseball might have something on him. Two of the parks in ST are equipped with PFX, though I have no idea if he started in any of them. I know Harry’s been classifying pitches of players who pitch in them each day this spring.
BerseliusQuote Reply
There are some pitches in pfx parks, but not many: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=502188
Then again, it’s more than enough to reach conclusions in this era.
mb21Quote Reply
@ ACT:
He’s a transformed hitter too.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Are we talking about F7’s repertoire? I recall he had a start with a Pitchf/x enabled and I saw a slider, a changeup, a cutter and the regular fastball, but nothing registered as a sinker per se. I could also be pulling that out of my ass but it seems so real.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
There might be some confusion as to how to classify the transformation pitch he’s been throwing.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
What did Charlie Sheen name his pitches in Major League 2?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Eliminator and Masturbator
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Harry is way behind the curve on The Metamorphosis Ball
GWQuote Reply
In my video game, F7 throws a 4-seamer, a 2-seamer (which may be considered a sinker I think), a slider, a splitter and a change. Video games are always 100% realistic.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Word from Hobbiton is Wells will get a start this weekend.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
This is relevant, perhaps, in some way:
joshQuote Reply
I know it’s what fans do, but we are analyzing Theo a little too early to make any concrete judgements.
Look at Ricketts after year one. We wanted him burned at the stake. But after seeing his plan a few years later I think most of us can agree he’s on the right track.
Just my .02
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/did-the-cubs-really-add-that-much-depth.html
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rodrigo Ramirez:
OK, but if hypothetically Ricketts had cleaned house as soon as he arrived (mid to post 2009), at the very least we could have avoided the debacle that was the hayden simpson draft, and quite possibly had another year of big spending in the draft. The fact that he took his sweet ass time to evaluate things had consequences.
GWQuote Reply
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Enoch CaracciolaQuote Reply