RLYW’s Annual Projections Blowout

In Projections by dmick8963 Comments

For the last several years, SG from RLYW has run simulations for various projections. This year, the average for the Cubs is 71 wins, which is good for 5th place (1 win behind the Pirates). If you go to their home page you can find the various projected standings for each projections (clidk on the image to the right). The Cubs best is 73 and their worst is 70. Gonna be a fun season.

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  1. Berselius

    I guess TCR was wrong about the optional waivers with Wells. That or he was claimed by some other team 4 days ago and has been pitching for them without a peep from the Chi media.

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  7. josh

    @ mb21:
    At least I’m not a Houston fan. That’s my mantra for the next few years. That article summarizing each team that someone posted earlier was talking about trading Carlos Lee. Who the hell would want him?

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  8. Mercurial Outfielder

    If the Cubs beat their projections this year, the discrediting of OV will be forever. (dying laughing)

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  11. Aisle424

    Berselius wrote:

    I guess TCR was wrong about the optional waivers with Wells. That or he was claimed by some other team 4 days ago and has been pitching for them without a peep from the Chi media.

    Why? Did i miss something? I don’t equate the absence of any news about Randy Wells clearing waivers as a sign that there were no waivers to clear. These guys didn’t notice Kerry Wood not being used for a week and that was right in front of them. If they noticed a paper trail that might require an asked question or two, it would be shocking.

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  12. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Aisle424:
    Not to mention they still haven’t reported on the supposed injury to Hayden Simpson that’s cropped up around the blogs over the last couple months.

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  13. Berselius

    Sounds like Sveumy is doing some spadework in advance of picking the last bullpen member. About Lendy Castillo:

    “He’s done OK,” manager Dale Sveum said before club’s final spring training game on Tuesday. “The velocity isn’t quite what it was earlier in camp. But he’s been pitching a lot more than he probably ever has. That’s one thing we’ve had to eyeball. He had to get built up. If he’s going to be in that role, he’s going to have to pitch quite a bit.”

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  18. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ josh:
    Well, if you’re talking about building a guy’s arm up and him pitching a lot of innings out of the bullpen, that sounds like a guy you view as your swingman. Plus, with Wells demoted and F7 in the rotation, there’s no clear swing guy in the bullpen, unless you consider Camp that guy.

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  20. Aisle424

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    Plus, with Wells demoted and F7 in the rotation, there’s no clear swing guy in the bullpen,

    I thought Rodrigo is in the bullpen and assumed he’d be the swingman/spot starter.

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  24. Mercurial Outfielder

    Nick Fairley —————> busted for possession

    Still amazing to me that people who have the material resources to avoid things like DUIs and minor drug possession charges consistently choose to ignore those resources.

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  25. Mercurial Outfielder

    Just for the record, I could really give two shits about athletes smoking weed, so long as they do so responsibly and in a way that doesn’t endanger others.

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  28. uncle dave

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    Not to mention they still haven’t reported on the supposed injury to Hayden Simpson that’s cropped up around the blogs over the last couple months.

    In all fairness, that’s hardly news (dying laughing).

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  30. mb21

    @ wpbc:
    This is the interesting quote:

    “We need more talent,” Epstein said in a 30-minute session with Cubs beat reporters. “We lack impact talent. We have a number of interesting guys, especially at the lower levels. Every organization has interesting guys at the lower levels.

    He’s basically saying that Jackson and Rizzo aren’t impact talent. I’m not sure I agree on Jackson. I think he could be. I think Rizzo has less of a chance of being an impact talent simply because he has to hit so damn well to make up for playing 1st base. It’s an interesting comment.

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  31. Mobile Rice

    @ mb21:
    I think the statement doesn’t preclude Jackson and Rizzo being impact guys but is rather saying that they don’t have enough Jacksons and Rizzos.

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  32. Berselius

    I didn’t read Sveum’s comments as talking about Castillo as a long man, it was just as a regular bullpen guy. He’s made 12 or so appearances in the last month and looks tired (worst insult every). I think they’re concerned he can’t pitch 3-4 times in a week.

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  33. mb21

    @ Mobile Rice:
    Could be, but I think even an optimistic projection for either of them is going to be about 4 WAR. Both of them have some issues. Jackson will have to have a high BABIP in order to maintain the high OBP. If Rizzo is more like the guy that showed up in the minors last season then he’s definitely an impact talent, but the rest of career indicates someone not nearly as good as that. However, he’d been young for his level so we should probably bump the numbers up just a little bit. Using a league average .325 wOBA, average defense and baserunning, Rizzo would have to have a wOBA of .390 to be worth 4 WAR. I know nothing about his defense. It’s likely his baserunning is below average. Only 5 1st basemen last season had a better than average UBR. Rizzo, in only 153 plate appearances was worth -1.6 runs on the bases. He reached base only 42 times (43, but one was a home run). 1 of those was a triple and 8 were doubles. Small sample so we don’t know much about his baserunning yet.

    I could see him being slightly above average on the bases and with the glove early on in his career so maybe he’d only need a .375 wOBA, but if he’s below average at both, he may need a .400 wOBA just to be a 4 WAR player.

    I use 4 WAR because that’s what I think of when we’re talking impact talent.

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  36. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Rice Cube:
    OMG THE INFORMATION CONVEYED ON THIS BOARD WILL COMPLETELY RUIN THE WRIGLEY EXPERIENCE OF BEER, URINE BREEZES, AND LOSING.

    / THIS GUY:

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  37. Suburban kid

    Rice Cube wrote:

    Doesn’t look too bad. Two days until we see it in action.

    It the good Lord’s willing and the creeks don’t rise, I hope to be back with you for this inglorious day.

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  40. Al Yellon

    Mish wrote:

    @ mb21:
    I imagine your avatar and his have sex, regularly. Just like you two. (dying laughing)

    (dying laughing)

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  42. Suburban kid

    Mish wrote:

    @ mb21:
    I imagine your avatar and his have sex, regularly.

    Given your favourite hobby, I’m not surprised.

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  50. Mercurial Outfielder

    mb21 wrote:

    I like how Houston has already been eliminated. (dying laughing)

    They aren’t mentally prepared for the season.

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  54. Rice Cube

    @ ACT:
    That depends on how many first-pitch outs they can generate. If the Cubs work deep counts then it goes into double digits. If they swing away then I think they can keep it below double digits (dying laughing)

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  57. Mercurial Outfielder

    Phil Cuzzi is a shitbox. I agree that particular graph doesn’t tell the story, but I was watching that game. Ozzie was literally goaded out of the dugout by Cuzzi. He’d been yapping from the dugout about some bad calls, Cuzzi called him out, Ozzie came out. They argued. Ozzie turned to leave, Cuzzi followed him to the dugout, and then ejected him. Whereupon Ozzie went ballistic. It’s not the first time he’s done that, either:

    June 25, 2010: Phil rings up James Loney of the Dodgers, ending the game, the culmination of a long night of questionable strike calls. As Loney walks back to the dugout, Cuzzi walks with him, and when the exchange gets heated, Cuzzi throws out Loney. That’s right, he threw a guy out when the game was ALREADY OVER. Not to mention he did the worst thing an umpire can do, which is engage a player or coach in argument, baiting them into getting thrown out.

    August 8, 2007: Cuzzi once again showed his tendency to engage managers, when he jawed with Ozzie Guillen till Guillen came out of the dugout and was thrown out. Guillen was quoted as saying: “From 1985 to now, I don’t see any umpire disrespect players and managers the way that guy does”. [This is the incident I mention above]

    Game 4, 2005 NLCS: Jim Edmonds was up in the 8th inning with the tying run on base. With the count 3-1, Edmonds took a pitch and started toward first, only for Cuzzi to call it a strike. When Edmonds turned around to ask where the pitch was, Cuzzi tossed him. The Cardinals would lose the game and the series.

    2003: In his 2nd to last game of the season, Roy Halladay was pitching for a Cy Young and a team record 22nd win. When Halladay threw a pitch inside to Rocco Baldelli, Phil decided it was intentional, and threw Halladay out of the game, a shocking move based on the circumstances. No one, including Baldelli, thought Halladay was trying to hit him.

    Game 2, 2009 ALDS: Ah, Phil’s masterpiece, his 9th symphony, his Hamlet. In a tied game in the 9th inning, Joe Mauer hit a ball down the left field line, which hit off Melky Cabrera’s glove in fair territory and went into the stands. Phil was the left field umpire, and despite being no more than 20 ft. away, looking right at the play, he called the ball foul. The call was so easy, it has been cited since as a great example of the need for instant replay in baseball. Perhaps baseball should just fire Phil Cuzzi.

    http://8thinningweirdness.blogspot.com/2010/07/phil-cuzzi-douchebag-extraordinaire.html

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  63. josh

    Looks like the Hope Monster has been visiting Brett, re: Darwin Barney: http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/04/04/police-are-still-investigating-the-starlin-castro-sexual-assault-allegation-claim-and-other-bullets/

    That said, while walks are a good skill, there have been guys who are successful without a lot of them. Ichiro doesn’t take a ton of walks. He swings at pitches out of the zone less frequently than Ichiro, and makes about the same contact in and out of the zone (all according to fangraphs, of course). His biggest problem seems to be he could be slightly more aggressive on balls actual thrown for strikes, and while Ichiro has murdered fastballs, Barney hasn’t had much success against fastballs yet.

    Granted, we’re talking a much smaller sample size for Barney as opposed to Ichiro, and I guess it seems like while a guy can have success without taking a lot of walks, it means he has to make good contact. Barney seems like he’s making a lot of contact, but that’s not translating into hits, i.e., lots of weak-ass grounders. Ichiro also had speed to beat out a few of his WAGs. Perhaps adding more power, to get the ball out of the infield, will help, but sustaining that over the course of the marathon season is pretty tough. My best guess is Barney comes on strong at first and then fades.

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