Well, at least the Cubs aren't the worst team in baseball right now. That honor goes to the Royals, who are 3-12 and have lost ten games in a row. But at least they have a farm system percolating its way into the bigs, provided they're not blocked by the multi-year-dealed Jeff Francouers of the world.
The Cardinals are coming off of (what else) a series win over the Pirates. It was their 16th straight series win dating back to last year.
The Cubs designated Rodrigo Lopez for assignment today to make room for Michael Bowden.
Team Overviews
This year's numbers, with NL rank in parentheses. Small sample sizes apply of course.
| Cards | Cubs | |
| wOBA | .353 (1st) | .278 (13th) |
| BSR | 1.3 (3rd) | 1.7 (2nd) |
| UZR | 7.9 (2nd) | -1.3 (10th) |
| DRS | 3 (2nd) | -8 (12th) |
| SP FIP | 3.26 (4th) | 3.63 (8th) |
| RP FIP | 3.10 (3rd) | 4.52 (16th) |
From these numbers, there's no surprise that the Cardinals are rolling over the NL. Pretty much the only thing you can criticize on the team level is that they don't have anyone who is particularly good defensively, except for that guy behind the plate.
Lineup
Current wOBA /Rest of season ZiPS
| Cards | wOBA | wOBA | Cubs |
| SS Rafael Fucal | .423 / .328 | .324 / .328 | RF David DeJesus |
| 2B Tyler Greene | .310 / .306 | .493 / .299 | CF Tony Campana |
| LF Matt Holliday | .261 / .361 | .411 / .345 | SS Starlin Castro |
| RF Carlos Beltran | .419 / .368 | .450 / .347 | 1B Bryan LaHair |
| 3B David Freese | .397 / .327 | .189 / .315 | LF Alfonso Soriano |
| C Yadier Molina | .414 / .330 | .246 / .309 | 3B Ian Stewart |
| 1B Matt Carpenter | .347 / .317 | .196 / .327 | C Geovany Soto |
| CF Shane Robinson | .428 / .297 | .332 / .297 | 2B Darwin Barney |
Holliday has been sluping badly, but clearly the rest of the offense is picking up the slack. Matt Carpenter's numbers are mostly due to one good game against (who else) the Cubs, so they are missing Berkman a bit too. Though not that much, with the top offense in the NL. On the Cubs side, it's really just Castro, LaHair, and not much else (maybe DeJesus). Watching Campana run will be fun whenever he gets on base. He was running all over the place in RR a week ago.
Injuries
The Cardinals have them in spades. Jon Jay is out with a shoulder spraing after colliding with a wall last week, and Lance Berkman is still out for a few more weeks with a calf strain. Playoff hero Allen Craig is still recovering from knee surgery and is still at extended spring training. The Good Chris Carpenter is still out with shoulder problems and won't even start throwing for a few more weeks. The Cubs have Wood and Dempster on the DL. Wood was reportedly throwing in the OF today and is feeling much better.
Pitching Matchups
ERA, FIP, xFIP, ZiPS FIP in parens
Monday: Jaime Garcia, LHP (3.06, 2.82, 4.03, 3.24) vs Matt Garza, RHP (3.66, 3.70, 3.07, 3.45), 7:05 PM CT
The results have been good, but Garcia's first three starts weren't particularly typical of his past resume. Garcia's strikeout and ground ball rates are down so far this year, and he's given up a lot of line drives. A big part in his low ERA is the fact that he hasn't given up any HRs. He's been quite good at suppressing HR in the past and that should continue today given the Cubs "offense" and the way the wind has been howling in at Wrigley for the past few days.
The second biggest question with Matt Garza this year is whether last year's radically different GB% was a fluke or not. After the absolutely definitive sample of three starts, it looks like Garza has indeed transformed. His ground ball rate is right in line with last year's. The strikeouts are still there too. The second biggest question is obviously whether or not he'll still be a Cub in 6 months. If his peripherals keep looking like they did last year's Thoyer can get a lot more back in a trade (or have more incentive for an extension for that matter). Honestly I think the most likely scenario could just be the Cubs hanging on to him and getting the picks in the 2014 draft – they're going to be bad for a while and any prospect they acquire would be a drop in the bucket compared to the scorched wasteland that is the cream filling of the Cubs farm system's Oreo.
Tuesday: Adam Wainwright, RHP (9.88, 6.52, 3.13, 3.21) vs Rodimus Prime, RHP (5.71, 2.88, 3.36, 4.16), 7:05 PM CT
Well, at least Samardzija's FIP looks good. After his stellar opening day near-complete game, he's been knocked around by opposing batters. His fastball has dropped a few MPH from that opening start (though still is about as hard as he threw in relief), and opposing hitters are hitting a ton of line drives off of him. He ended his little-to-no walk streak with a five-walk, 3.2 inning performance in his last outing. The jury is still out on his transformation, which was never really more than a transformation from sub-replacement level starter to mediocre starter. And mediocre starters have bad days too. Given his history though expectations are getting tempered quickly.
At least Samardzija gets a good matchup in the struggling Wainwright. He's having juuuust a bit of HR bad luck (35.7% HR/FB) but he hasn't looked the same yet in his comeback from TJS. His fastball is down about 4 mph from 2010, and his wicked curveball hasn't been an out pitch so far this year either (possibly because hitters are sitting on said fastball). He's given up a HR in every start, including two to the Cubs in a eight-run, three inning outing that put a slight damper on the Cards opening day festivities.
Wednesday: Lance Lynn, RHP (1.42, 3.15, 3.11, 3.70) vs Chris Volstad, RHP (6.19, 2.75, 3.52, 4.43), 1:20 PM CT
Lance Lynn was pressed into service after Carpenter went down, and knowing Carpenter's past could end up starting the whole year for the Cards one way or another. He was pretty meh in the minors in 2010, but had a solid year in AAA in 2011 before being called up to the Cards pen last year. His ERA is very BABIP-influcenced (.182) but he's getting tons of strikeouts too. His walk rate is well below his projection, and should stay pretty low after this start.
When I look at Volstad's numbers I figure he must be being BABIPed to death or something, but it's a reasonable.for a groundballer .321. Then again, he hasn't been getting many ground balls, and instead has a 25% LD rate. At least he's kept the homers down, and is striking out guys en route to throwing 1000 pitches an inning. I think there's a lot to like from the peripherals, but I'm sure by the second inning I'll be wondering yet again what I saw in this guy.
Prediction
Cards streak rolls on. Cubs win on Transformers Day for the honor of Cybertron.
Comments
The Cubs are also 1st in baseball in BRR (previously EqBRR) with 4.8. Atlanta is 2nd with 4.2. Jordan Schaefer leads MLB with 2.8 and Castro is 2nd with 2.2.
mb21Quote Reply
Lineup tonight vs LHP Garcia
RF DeJesus
2B Barney
SS Castro
LF Soriano
1B Baker
C Soto
CF Johnson
3B Mather
P Garza
BerseliusQuote Reply
Is the Cubs’ BSR really just Castro’s gaudy SB #’s?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Here’s the Cubs
EqBRR numbers so far:NAME BRR
Starlin Castro 2.2
David Dejesus 1.5
Steve Clevenger 1.1
Blake Dewitt 0.8
Geovany Soto 0.6
Darwin Barney 0.4
Reed Johnson 0.3
Jeff Baker 0.2
Alfonso Soriano -0.1
Ian Stewart -0.3
Marlon Byrd -0.4
Joe Mather -0.6
Bryan Lahair -0.9
Berselius is using Fangraphs UBR so I figure you can find that yourself. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
I think the Cubs win tonight and lose the next 3.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Aram hit a triple.
ACTQuote Reply
I hate it when runners get aggressive with southpaws on the mound. Ugh.
ACTQuote Reply
ACT wrote:
Someone fell down?
BerseliusQuote Reply
The Cubs this year make me sad, but then I listen to this song over and over as I read OV and the sadness disappears. Keep up the good works guys, you make living in downtown STL tolerable this time of year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWlx2JiY4t0&feature=youtube_gdata_player
BottleasmokeQuote Reply
Is it too soon to put up the reverse standings?
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
MishQuote Reply
I like how Rodimus Prime got B-R linked (dying laughing)
Mobile RiceQuote Reply
@ Mobile Rice:
(dying laughing), I was hoping someone would notice. I was tempted to put it to Judd Nelson’s IMDB page instead
BerseliusQuote Reply
Garza gets the first hit by a Cubs pitcher all year.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Your DH can go to hell.
Mobile RiceQuote Reply
Byrd is 1-3.
ACTQuote Reply
Campy steals on a pitchout? That guy is fast.
joshQuote Reply
Should have let Campy steal home and tie it. Why the fuck not?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
mostly because the 2B dropped the throw. Otherwise Campana was out
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
Ah okay. Gameday didn’t mention that. Still, Campy forces the defense to be perfect and move quickly, so that has to count for something.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Straight steals of home have gone out of fashion, largely because pitchers now like to throw out of the stretch with runners on third.
ACTQuote Reply
Jason Motte is a charter member of Ian Stewart’s Ballplayers Who Smell Like Baboon Chode club.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Campy could do it.
joshQuote Reply
Bets on how this AB turns out?
joshQuote Reply
Motte walked him because he was tired of throwing fastballs.
joshQuote Reply
It’s all in Joe Mather’s hands!
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Cubs got them right where they want them.
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
OMG!
ACTQuote Reply
See there?
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Ye of little faith.
joshQuote Reply
BUILD THAT WHITE MAN A STATUE
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Motte just proved that there’s more to baseball than throwing hard. What a bum.
ACTQuote Reply
Josh I think Joe Mather might be just the catalyst needed to revive the Hope Monster
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I love sticking it to the Cardinals. That’s the best feeling.
joshQuote Reply
LaHair won that with the 12 pitch at bat
WaLi22Quote Reply
@ WaLi22:
Clevenger won it from the dugout with his Aura.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Campana’s speed made things happen once again. He distracted Motte with his blinding speed, even though he didn’t bat against him.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I could see Mather becoming this years’ DeRosa, without the postseason appearance, of course.
joshQuote Reply
Oh, and Cody Ross now has as many homers as the whole Chicago Cubs team.
ACTQuote Reply
@ josh:
Also, DeRosa was good while Mather is replacement level.
ACTQuote Reply
Gotta admit, it was pretty fun watching them run out and mob Mather. Cuck the Fardinals!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ josh:
Oh, yeah.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
It’s all relative, though. I meant more in terms of mythologization.
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
That’s never kept Cub fans from lionizing a player.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
+1 :LSA Rec’d. Today’s game was a nice reminder that baseball can be fun sometimes, not just a dreary march to 100 losses.
BerseliusQuote Reply
It was good to see one of Tony’s former scraptastic players stick it to the Cards. LaHair PA was impressive. He couldn’t really catch up to the heat, but really made him work. That PA won it.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Indeed.
frysredjacketQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20867643&c_id=mlb
ACTQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
LaHair wore him out for sure. That’s the kind of AB we rarely see from the Cubs.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
That LaHair PA was epic
BerseliusQuote Reply
WPA on that Mather hit: .765
ACTQuote Reply
I’ve been wondering if I’d get my $$$ out of Gameday Audio this year. Tuning in for innings 8 and 9 certainly help. Hooray.
Now, back to reality.
SkipVBQuote Reply
Too bad he didn’t have bigger dreams.
SkipVBQuote Reply
That was a win I recently enjoyed in person.
Mobile RiceQuote Reply
This was a first pitch I recently enjoyed:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20859403&topic_id=&c_id=tex&v=3&tcid=tw_video_20859403
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Did anyone see this on TV? Did the fan touch it? I think Soriano had a bead on it but either feared the wall or was just bad at defense.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Nice job protecting your kid, RC.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Isn’t that the bullpen mound? Looks like Sori is falling off the back of it. Not an easy play.
That padding wasn’t there before. Must be new. Remember when DeRosa bounced off the open bullpen phone box?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I think Len said that he didn’t think Soriano got there in time anyway
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/23/we-may-never-hear-shyam-das-explanation-for-overturning-ryan-brauns-suspension/
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I think he had to hop over the bullpen but I had a bad angle (from 216) and didn’t know if it bounced off the padding or off the edge of the bullpen dirt. It seemed that some fans were reaching for it (and I thought the “B” word then, I must admit). People around me were complaining that Soriano sucked etc. but I didn’t think that was exactly an easy play either. Again I had a bad angle so I thought I’d get somebody else’s point of view.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Why would you think about Bubbles at a moment like that?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Because a pterodactyl flew by.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Last night as Joe Mather was coming to the plate Brenly said he was “another good fastball hitter.” This was important since they were facing a guy who throws a really good fastball. However, which player at the MLB level isn’t a good fastball hitter? They all are. You are not reaching the big leagues if you aren’t very good at hitting the most thrown pitch in the game. “A good fastball hitter” is the same thing as saying “he can wear a glove.”
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I thought the fan caught it, though in the pic above it looks like he didn’t. Live on TV it looked like Soriano may have been a half step too late, but he had a chance. Oh well.
WaLiQuote Reply
TOOTBLAN!
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/huh-braves-turn-double-play-back-back-singles-122237162.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
There was no way Soriano was catching that ball if he had an empty stadium and a thousand chances.
Aisle424Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
I always translate this as “sucks at hitting things other than fastballs”. I think that’s mostly because the guy I associate it most with is Soriano.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://www.theheckler.com/2012/04/23/cubs-tickets-now-have-two-drink-minimum
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/what_does_a_fas.php
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
The 75 cent hike in shitty beer prices was a surprise for me. After tip (due to laziness or whatever) it’s like a $8 cup of lukewarm asswater. I don’t know why people pay.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
That’s probably more accurate, but it’s one of those comments from announcers that drives me nuts. Give me some practice and I’d become a good fastball hitter. Mix in some other pitches and I’d be lucky to put the ball in play.
mb21Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
Did anyone post this yet?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/04/23/mlb.power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t13_a0
#7
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Almost as hilarious as putting the White Sox 8th. Just a reminder that power rankings are completely useless.
Unrelated: MB, we should probably do another OV Power Rankings post soon.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I hate it when people use WAR as a team stat. There are a zillion better ways to look at overall team statistics. The whole point of it was to try to value individual players.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://www.theonion.com/articles/alqaeda-claims-us-mass-transportation-infrastructu,21008/
(dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Those are the dumbest fucking rankings I’ve ever seen.
mb21Quote Reply
Berselius wrote:
I was thinking the same thing. It would be best for me if we were to do it by the end of the week (at least fill it out). I won’t be around much the following week.
mb21Quote Reply
new post up
dylanjQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-rc-cola.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
Peoria Chiefs FB just said they added Gerardo Concepcion to their roster.
Rice CubeQuote Reply