Don’t Ever Bet On the Cubs at Home

Today, I happened upon a site looking at how well you would do historically if you bet on the Cubs regularly.

Obviously, (and I don’t think we needed actual data to convince us of this) the result of such betting would have been bad.  Not Oh-Darn-I-Guess-I-Won’t-Be-Able-to-Buy-That-iPad-Now bad, but more like Holy-Shit-I’m-Now-Homeless bad.

I don’t fully understand how lost “units” are calculated in this post, but I don’t think you have to understand the math behind it to catch the drift of what they are getting at:

The Cubs are down a staggering 173.34 units since 2000. I don’t think any other team is down even 100 units during the same stretch. Keep in mind: this is a team that has made the playoffs multiple times during the 2000s.

Is there a reason for this? Yes, at least I think there is. The Cubs, much like this season, have always managed to hold their own on the road. But they get crushed at home, primarily because oddsmakers give Wrigley Field way too much credit. The Cubs are 9-13 at home this year but are already down 6.37 units.

Three times since 2000, the Cubs were profitable on the road even when they lost 10 or more units in a season at home. Seven times the Cubs have lost more money at home than they did on the road.

Total units lost since 2000:

On the road: -44.59

At home: -123.18

Keep in mind that they said that no other team has lost even 100 units overall in that time period and the Cubs lost over 123 just at Wrigley.  Holy. Shit.

But what is causing this?  Are oddsmakers using an assumption on “homefield advantage” that simply doesn’t exist at Wrigley?  Is it because Cubs fans bet on the team no matter what so the oddsmakers know it and set the odds even more in their favor compared to true odds? Maybe a combination of the two?

It’s kind of fascinating and something that could really only happen to the Cubs. We’ll just throw this onto the pile of the ever-growing list of reasons that maybe the Cubs would be better off just tearing down Wrigley Field and starting over.


154 thoughts on “Don’t Ever Bet On the Cubs at Home”

  1. A few years ago I asked a bookie friend of mine if there was a way to do a prop bet where I essentially sold short the Cubs changes of winning the World Series. He told me to go to hell. So then I asked around at a couple of Casinos and they told me to go to hell. However, it turned out that there was a way to replicate that bet on Bodog.com. But I didn’t trust them to ever pay out, so I didn’t do it. I can’t think of another more sure fire way to make money in the history of man kind (dying laughing)

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  2. maybe the Cubs would be better off just tearing down Wrigley Field and starting over.

    Blasphemy!

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  4. [quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]A few years ago I asked a bookie friend of mine if there was a way to do a prop bet where I essentially sold short the Cubs changes of winning the World Series. He told me to go to hell. So then I asked around at a couple of Casinos and they told me to go to hell. However, it turned out that there was a way to replicate that bet on Bodog.com. But I didn’t trust them to ever pay out, so I didn’t do it. I can’t think of another more sure fire way to make money in the history of man kind (dying laughing)[/quote]
    Betting on the Cubs has always been something I would never do even without knowing a damn thing about how they calculate odds and all that, but then when you look at the odds they give Cubs of winning the World Series at the beginning of the season, they are ridiculously low.

    If the Cubs fielded a team entirely of Koyie Hill at every position and James Russell at every pitching spot, the odds set of that team winning the World Series would probably be 40-1 because people bet on them no matter what, and they have to keep it low or they’d never be able to pay off everything if the Cubs ever did win.

    Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is usually set at 500-1 every damn year because nobody cares to bet on Pittsburgh.

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  5. Is it considered “betting on the Cubs” if you bet on them to lose? I think I might start a new hobby.

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  6. [quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock] However, it turned out that there was a way to replicate that bet on Bodog.com.[/quote]
    How? (if you don’t mind me asking). I’ve tried to figure out a way to do something like this in the past, but the numbers never add up.

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  7. [quote name=GW]How? (if you don’t mind me asking). I’ve tried to figure out a way to do something like this in the past, but the numbers never add up.[/quote]It’s been years and I had the help of people who are much heavier gamblers than I am, so I don’t really remember. But if I remember correctly it had to do with stringing together a few prop bets where you sort of synthetically were betting for a team to lose the world series, lose the NLCS, lose the NLDS, etc. If the team never made it to those series, you automatically won. That might not be the exact bet, but it was something along those lines.

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  8. [quote name=Suburban kid]Is it considered “betting on the Cubs” if you bet on them to lose? I think I might start a new hobby.[/quote]
    I bet on them to lose in all three games of a White Sox series when I was out in Vegas once and the Cubs swept. Best $60 I ever spent.

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  9. [quote name=GW]I’m guessing it’s related to the Cubs’ bad luck. From a link I’ve posted here before:

    http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2011/02/scorecasting-are-cubs-unlucky-or-is-it.html%5B/quote%5DI read that a month or two ago so I may be wrong on a few things, but Phil doesn’t break that down by home/road, did he? I remember talking with him at the time via email wondering if the offense had been the primary cause for this unluckiness. We never reached a conclusion because a lot of work would have to be done.

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  10. But what is causing this? Are oddsmakers using an assumption on “homefield advantage” that simply doesn’t exist at Wrigley? Is it because Cubs fans bet on the team no matter what so the oddsmakers know it and set the odds even more in their favor compared to true odds? Maybe a combination of the two?

    This has to be the problem. Cubs fans are optimistic even when they shouldn’t be. They’re probably more optimistic when the Cubs are in Chicago playing at Wrigley Field.

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  11. [quote name=mb21]I read that a month or two ago so I may be wrong on a few things, but Phil doesn’t break that down by home/road, did he? [/quote]
    Nope.

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  12. [quote name=mb21]This has to be the problem. Cubs fans are optimistic even when they shouldn’t be. They’re probably more optimistic when the Cubs are in Chicago playing at Wrigley Field.[/quote]
    I doubt it. If it is, we should all just quit our jobs and start betting against the Cubs every day. Too many people actually do this for a living to allow that kind of arbitrage.

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  13. [quote name=Aisle424]I bet on them to lose in all three games of a White Sox series when I was out in Vegas once and the Cubs swept. Best $60 I ever spent.[/quote]I’ve never bet on the Cubs to win. I haven’t placed a bet in a several years, but more than likely would have bet on them to win in 2007, 2008 and 2009. I was really quite optimistic during those three seasons.

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  14. [quote name=GW]Nope.[/quote]I wonder if the Cubs poor clutch scores over the past decade are more shitty at home than on the road. That could be one reason.

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  15. Where is the 2010 MLB Draft coverage? Where is the list of guys that the Cubs will pass on to take some D 3 right handed pitcher?

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  16. [quote name=mb21]This has to be the problem. Cubs fans are optimistic even when they shouldn’t be. They’re probably more optimistic when the Cubs are in Chicago playing at Wrigley Field.[/quote]An employee at a Vegas sportsbook once told me that not only are Cubs fans way overoptimistic, but so many of them swing up to Vegas after visiting Cactus League games and place bets on the Cubs to go all the way (even as a joke) that the odds get all fucked up.

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  19. [quote name=mb21]I wonder if the Cubs poor clutch scores over the past decade are more shitty at home than on the road. That could be one reason.[/quote]
    Yep. I think the more glaring information here is how much they are down overall, though, not so much the home/road spllt.

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  20. [quote name=2883]2011 MLB Draft coverage too..[/quote]I’ll probably post a couple things the closer we get to the draft. Feel free to post some stuff on the community blog here. Good chance it gets moved to the front page.

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  22. [quote name=GW]Yep. I think the more glaring information here is how much they are down overall, though, not so much the home/road spllt.[/quote]Optimism. I’m willing to bet that if you had a Halladay/Coleman match-up and asked Cubs fans who was going to win that game that at least 45% would say the Cubs. I’d actually be surprised if under 50% didn’t say the Cubs.

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  23. I looked at the Cubs’ win-loss records since 2005, and they definitely do have a home-field advantage (263-244 at home vs. 240-264 on the road).

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  24. [quote name=Mish]Yay, I un-AIDS’d my personal PC and I can see comments again. Trojans suck.[/quote]What was the Trojan? I’m just curious in case someone else has the problem.

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  25. [quote name=ACT]I looked at the Cubs’ win-loss records since 2005, and they definitely do have a home-field advantage (263-244 at home vs. 240-264 on the road).[/quote]That’s a .519 winning percentage at home. Average winning percentage is .545 at home. I think the Cubs overall record since then is above .500 too.

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  26. [quote name=mb21]Optimism. I’m willing to bet that if you had a Halladay/Coleman match-up and asked Cubs fans who was going to win that game that at least 45% would say the Cubs. I’d actually be surprised if under 50% didn’t say the Cubs.[/quote]
    Well, 45% would be high, but not that high. No game is more than 65/35. The point is that if thousands of optimistic cubs fans were skewing lines, pros would make their livings exclusively betting against them every day.

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  27. The record since 2005 is slightly under .500, but yeah, they’ve been slightly below-average at home and slightly above-average on the road, so their split is less extreme than most.

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  28. [quote name=mb21]What was the Trojan? I’m just curious in case someone else has the problem.[/quote]
    It was called “TrojanDropper.Win32/sirefef”. I don’t know if it’s what caused my lack of comments, but since the timing was the same, I’m led to believe it was. I had to back up my important data to an external drive and I wiped my hard drive clean and installed a clean version of Windows 7. So if anyone else has the problem, tell them to wipe their PC or buy a new one (dying laughing)

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  29. [quote name=Mish]Yay, I un-AIDS’d my personal PC and I can see comments again. Trojans suck.[/quote]
    Next time, use Durex

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  30. From the last thread, I still remember Charlie Manuel’s face after that grand slam. That was priceless.

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  31. lineups

    RF Fukudome
    2B Barney
    SS Castro
    3B Ramirez
    1B Pena
    CF Byrd
    LF Johnson
    C Koyie
    P Coleman

    CF Coghlan
    SS Ramirez
    LF Morrison
    1B Sanchez
    3B Dobbs
    RF Stanton
    C Buck
    2B Infante
    P Volstad

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  32. [quote name=GW]Well, 45% would be high, but not that high. No game is more than 65/35. The point is that if thousands of optimistic cubs fans were skewing lines, pros would make their livings exclusively betting against them every day.[/quote]If the game was in Philly, the odds of the Phillies winning would probably be closer to 70% if we assume the two teams have equal offenses, defenses and bullpens. If it’s in Chicago it would be about 60% in favor of the Phillies. The difference between Halladay and Coleman is about 2 runs per 9 innings. That’s a huge difference.

    For comparison sakes, I ran the numbers for a Hudson/Halladay start recently. The Braves offense is considerably better than the Phillies and at home the Braves had a 50.1% chance of winning. If I put Halladay on the Braves and Hudson on the Phillies the Braves had a 70.1% chance of winning the game. The Braves came out with about a 2 run per 9 inning advantage with Halladay on the mound for them and Hudson the mound for Philly.

    How many professional better bet on baseball? I don’t know the answer and you’re probably right in what you say, but it’s not like football though.

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  33. What would be funny is to draw comparisons between the 2008 team and this one over at BCB to show Alvin what fundamentally different teams look like.

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  42. It would be hilarious if the Cubs finished this road trip on a 5-game winning streak after Bruce Miles article yesterday wondering if they could go winless.

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  56. I kinda like Coleman’s wind-up/motion. It’s his pitching I’m not that big a fan of.

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  57. [quote name=melissa]Volstad pulled after 5. They never mentioned his pitch count being high. Seems strange.[/quote]
    Only 72 pitches for Volstad

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  58. I wonder if he’s hurting. His spot was leading off so it seems weird they would pull him. Anyone listening to Marlins feed?

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  59. Marlins must think they have to pull their pitcher in the 5th in order to have a chance of scoring any runs on Casey Coleman. (dying laughing)

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  60. [quote name=melissa]I wonder if he’s hurting. His spot was leading off so it seems weird they would pull him. Anyone listening to Marlins feed?[/quote]
    no

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  73. I give it one week before Quade has benched either Fukudome or Soriano in favor of Reed Johnson.

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  74. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I give it one week before Quade has benched either Fukudome or Soriano in favor of Reed Johnson.[/quote]
    He’s just trying to win games, MO.

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  75. [quote name=Aisle424]He’s just trying to win games, MO.[/quote]Let’s See What Happens

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  76. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I give it one week before Quade has benched either Fukudome or Soriano in favor of Reed Johnson.[/quote]
    I expect him to play left in Fenway with Sori DHing.

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  77. [quote name=melissa]I expect him to play left in Fenway with Sori DHing.[/quote]Maybe that’s how it starts. I fully expect Quade to hand him a fulltime gig.

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  78. why is Hill playing so much? Besides sucking at batting, he’s done so much stupid shit lately, both mental and physical errors. incredible. He almost threw one away earlier with 2 outs, 2 on trying to pick off the guy at 1B when the runner wasn’t even off base very far, almost threw it away. many others, throwing errors, dropped throw at the plate… jesus

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  79. [quote name=Horny Goat]why is Hill playing so much? Besides sucking at batting, he’s done so much stupid shit lately, both mental and physical errors. incredible. He almost threw one away earlier with 2 outs, 2 on trying to pick off the guy at 1B when the runner wasn’t even off base very far, almost threw it away. many others, throwing errors, dropped throw at the plate… jesus[/quote]
    It might be because Beef Castle hasn’t taken advantage of what little opportunities he’s had. Small sample size rules all Cub decisions, y’know.

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  80. there’s the Lucas Oil ad in the background. I hope the B1G title game is at Soldier Field if they have to pick one of the two, but I still don’t know why they can’t rotate.

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  81. [quote name=Rice Cube]It might be because Beef Castle hasn’t taken advantage of what little opportunities he’s had. Small sample size rules all Cub decisions, y’know.[/quote]
    Beef Castle needs to play and he can’t do any worse.

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  82. After that HBP, Pena’s line is .237/.373/.395 …the OBP is amusingly high for what we’ve seen of him so far.

    I see Byrd likes Florida.

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  83. [quote name=Horny Goat]why is Hill playing so much? Besides sucking at batting, he’s done so much stupid shit lately, both mental and physical errors. incredible. He almost threw one away earlier with 2 outs, 2 on trying to pick off the guy at 1B when the runner wasn’t even off base very far, almost threw it away. many others, throwing errors, dropped throw at the plate… jesus[/quote]Gamer. Leader of Men. Gritty.

    Notice how those things have nothing to do with baseball.

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  85. [quote name=Rice Cube]Reed is showing his gamership here.[/quote]This is the longest 1-2 count I can ever remember. Oh, and it’s over.

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  86. Mike Mulligan has been saying for a while now that Hendry adores Koyie Hill. And Quade is Hendry’s sockpuppet gimp sycophant croney guy, Hill is going to play while Soto is hurt.

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  88. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Gamer. Leader of Men. Gritty.

    Notice how those things have nothing everything to do with baseball.[/quote]
    Brenly’d

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  93. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder](dying laughing), the Cubs are about to have another bedshitting.[/quote]
    they spend a fortune on new bedding.

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  94. [quote name=Aisle424]Kerry as an ordinary pitcher is no fun at all.[/quote]I bet Hendry can’t wait to hand him a $7 mil dollar extension. (dying laughing)

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  95. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I bet Hendry can’t wait to hand him a $7 mil dollar extension. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    Jimbo prefers to call it the “Grabow” package. It’s how you land the not-so top notch relievers.

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  96. [quote name=melissa]Jimbo prefers to call it the “Grabow” package. It’s how you See What Happens.[/quote]
    Fixed

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  104. What can the Cubs get for Marmol if he keeps pitching like this? The contract hurts a bit but think how many good teams would love his shit if he keeps this up.

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  106. [quote name=Horny Goat]What can the Cubs get for Marmol if he keeps pitching like this? The contract hurts a bit but think how many good teams would love his shit if he keeps this up.[/quote]Hey, pal, we’re trying to win games here.

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  108. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]gee willikers, we’re trying to win games here.[/quote]
    /Q

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  110. [quote name=ACT]Marmol threw 14 of his 16 pitches for strikes today.[/quote]
    This too shall pass (dying laughing)

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  111. [quote name=ACT]Marmol threw 14 of his 16 pitches for strikes today.[/quote]Wow.

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  114. [quote name=Horny Goat]funsucker[/quote]Hey, that’s a person you’re talking about.

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  117. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Hey, that’s a person you’re talking about.[/quote]
    I usually talk to imaginary ones so things are looking up.

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  120. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Hey, that’s a person you’re talking about.[/quote]
    Debatable.

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  125. Just wanted to bust that out, since there will be very few chances to do so (dying laughing)

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  126. [quote name=Berselius]Just wanted to bust that out, since there will be very few chances to do so (dying laughing)[/quote]
    you can put it back in the closet til next year (dying laughing)

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  131. I haven’t seen a lineup/game preview in awhile. But with Doug Davis going against Lester tonight, I’m thinking our chances are sub-.350.

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  132. [quote name=jtsunami]I haven’t seen a lineup/game preview in awhile. But with Doug Davis going against Lester tonight, I’m thinking our chances are sub-.350.[/quote]
    The other thing to ponder… With Sawx games going long as a general rule and Doug Davis slowing the game down, will this game finish before midnight?

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  133. Very good point. Bawston always seems to finish their games after 1 am. Doug Davis is the anti-Mark Buerhle.

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  134. [quote name=Rice Cube]The other thing to ponder… With Sawx games going long as a general rule and Doug Davis slowing the game down, will this game finish before midnight?[/quote]I’m sure the Cubs hitters will oblige with one-pitch PAs.

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  135. [quote name=Mish]I’m sure the Cubs hitters will oblige with one-pitch PAs.[/quote]
    I’m thinking more of Boston’s offense. At some point whoever relieves Davis will have to play the part of the sacrificial lamb.

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  136. [quote name=Rice Cube]

    Great catch, plus I think she emasculated the dudes around her with the awesomeness.[/quote]That kid looks like a minature Rick Steiner. Hopefully there are some wrestling fans that get this reference.

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  137. [quote name=Jame Gumb][/quote](dying laughing)
    That would suck. I love how the ball comes rolling back like it’s trying to hide too.

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  138. [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]That kid looks like a minature Rick Steiner. Hopefully there are some wrestling fans that get this reference.[/quote]
    He’s the one who’s finishing move was the flying bulldog or something right? Headlock from the second turnbuckle?

    As opposed to Scott, who had the Steiner Recliner and Steiner Driver.

    /validating

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  139. [quote name=Mish]He’s the one who’s finishing move was the flying bulldog or something right? Headlock from the second turnbuckle?

    As opposed to Scott, who had the Steiner Recliner and Steiner Driver.

    /validating[/quote]Damn, I don’t remember who had what moves but I remember Rick wore that awesome wrestling helmet.

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  140. [quote name=Muck Muckintuck](dying laughing)
    That would suck. I love how the ball comes rolling back like it’s trying to hide too.[/quote]
    The pipe that she cracked will not let them hide.

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  141. [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Damn, I don’t remember who had what moves but I remember Rick wore that awesome wrestling helmet.[/quote]This is correct.

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  142. [quote name=jtsunami]I haven’t seen a lineup/game preview in awhile. But with Doug Davis going against Lester tonight, I’m thinking our chances are sub-.350.[/quote]These 6 pm start times suck. It doesn’t take long to get one together, but I’m usually busy after lineups are posted and until the game starts or after.

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  143. [quote name=mb21]These 6 pm start times suck. It doesn’t take long to get one together, but I’m usually busy after lineups are posted and until the game starts or after.[/quote]

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  144. Probably already been posted but,

    LeMahieu, Flaherty, Ridling, and Vitters combined for 11-17, 1 HR, 2 2B, 7 RBIs, 7 R

    That’s 3-4-5-6 in the order. Wowzers.

    Also, Rhoderick, Beliveau, and Dolis are continuing the domination in the pen. Man I wish I could watch this team instead.

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  145. I’m pretty sure Lemahieu, Flaherty, and Vitters all went Camp Colvin, which needs a name change because people will think the camp is for learning how to strike out and not take a walk.

    Colvin 0-4 in AAA game last night with 2 Ks.

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  146. [quote name=jtsunami]
    Also, Rhoderick, Beliveau, and Dolis are continuing the domination in the pen. Man I wish I could watch this team instead.[/quote]Don’t you like anything?

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  148. [quote name=jtsunami]Probably already been posted but,

    LeMahieu, Flaherty, Ridling, and Vitters combined for 11-17, 1 HR, 2 2B, 7 RBIs, 7 R[/quote]
    Vitters put multiple balls in the air for a change last night vs playing pepper with the SS, which he has done most of the season. Even in hitter’s counts, which he has no shortage of, he has still hits an inordinate amount of grounders to SS.

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