The Cubs just managed to take 2 of 3 from the NL's best team and now face another one of the best teams in the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are a half game behind the Nationals in the NL East, but have won 3 in a row.
Pitching Matchups
Monday, May 7, 7:05 PM CT, WCIU
Tommy Hanson, RHP (3.74 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.29 ZiPS FIP): Hanson has allowed a career BABIP of .282, but this year it's at .330. However, his GB% is up over 47% (career 41.1%). It still shouldn't be that high and will come down a bit, but if the GB rate remains so high he will have a higher than usual BABIP. After only 6 starts and 33.2 innings, his strikeouts are down by about 1.5 per 9 innings. They're still at 8.3, which is just under his career 8.4 K/9. His walk rate is also slightly worse, but still a respectable 3.7 per 9. The reason his FIP so much lower than the ERA is the home run rate is at a career low for him and will see some regression as we move deeper into the season. He's worked deeper than 6 innings only twice (7 innings both times) and it appears the Braves are still taking it easy on him as far as pitch count goes. His last start was his worst of the season as he didn't make it out of the 4th inning. Overall though, Hanson has had 4 pretty good starts and 2 bad ones. His fastball velocity was 92.2 his rookie season and 92.7 in 2010. It then dropped to 91.1 and this year it's at 89.6. At his age and usage the Braves have to be concerned about a 3 mph loss of velocity over 2 seasons.
Jeff Samardzija (3.41 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 3.93 ZiPS FIP): Whatever I could say about Samardzija here I wrote about the other day.
Tuesday, May 8, 7:05 PM CT, WGN
Randall Delgado, RHP (5.14 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.52 ZiPS FIP): Last season Delgado was ranked as the 35th best prospect in baseball at the age of 21. This year he fell to 46th and made the opening day roster for the Braves. In the minor leagues he struck out 9.5 batters per 9 innings and last year in his 7 appearances it was under 5. This year it's up to 8.4 K/9. His last start was the best start of his young career as he went 8 innings and allowed 2 runs. He struckout 5 and walked none. He had a pretty good start to open the season and 3 not so good starts prior to his last one. Last season he threw primarily a 4-seamer, but this year it's his 2-seamer. His velocity is 91.8 on the 4-seamer and 90.4 on the 2-seamer. Nearly 70% of his pitches are the 2-seamer and 4-seamer. 18.3% of the time he throws a changeup.
Ryan Dempster, RHP (0.95 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 3.85 ZiPS FIP): Dempster is off to a terrific start. He leads the league with that silly ERA and has been helped by a BABIP under .200, as well as stranding a lot more runners than you'd expect. It's still been a great start for Dempster who is in the final year of his contract. Dempster made his 4th start of the season after returning from the DL and had his best start of the season. He threw 8 innings, allowed only 3 hits, walked 1 and struckout 5. According to game score, Dempster had only 1 start last season in which he was better than his last time out. He had an 81 last time and last year's best was 83. He had just 1 start better than that in 2010 and none in 2009. He was better twice in 2008. His last start was the 5th best start in a Cubs uniform for Dempster.
Wednesday, May 9, 1:20 PM CT, CSN
Tim Hudson, RHP (6.55 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.82 ZiPS FIP): Hudson's FIP is right in line with what we expect from him, but his ERA is ridiculously high. This is becasue 25% of the fly balls hit against him have been home runs. His LOB% is 54.2% compared to a career 74%. He's only made 2 starts and thrown 11 innings so it's not really a surprise to see numbers like this. In his first start back from the DL he was pretty good and in his next start he was terrible. Tim Hudson is still Tim Hudson even though he's now 36 years old. I don't know how much longer Hudson can pitch or how much longer he wants to, but if he could stick around for a few more years he's a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. He's not what he once was, but few players 36 are what they were when they were younger.
Paul Maholm, LHP (5.13 ERA, 5.61 FIP, 4.11 ZiPS FIP): Like Hudson, Maholm has been bitten by an unusually large HR/FB rate (18.5%). His xFIP is 4.54, which isn't too much higher than his career 4.21. What's odd is that so far he's allowed only a .221 BABIP, but has given up so many runs due to the home runs. His strikeouts are at a career low 4.8, but his walks are also at a career low 2.1. The strikeouts won't increase much, but the walks will probably increase more than the strikeouts. Maholm had 2 terrible starts to begin the season and over his last 3 starts he's allowed only 3 runs in 18.1 innings.
Batting
Nobody has been hitting the ball close to as well as the Cardinals have in the NL, but the Braves are 2nd with a team .333 wOBA (110 wRC+). The Rockies have hit 34 home runs and the Braves and Brewers are tied for 2nd with 33. The Cubs have hit 15, which actually isn't last at this point.
Chipper Jones is doing Chipper Jones things (5 HR, .404 wOBA). Jason Heyward has a .369 wOBA and Freddie Freemon's is .362. Even Michael Bourn's is .357. The Braves bench has been awesome. Eric Hinske (.425), Matt Diaz (.402), and David Ross (.393) are all crushing the ball. Tyler Pastornicky is the only Brave hitter with more than 38 PA to have a wRC+ below 100.
As a team the Cubs are at a .291 wOBA. Bryan LaHair has an impressive .515 wOBA and Steve Clevenger, on the DL for the time being, is even higher at .536. Joe Mather has been excellent as a bench player with a .380 wOBA and Tony Campana (.359) has filled in nicely for Marlon Byrd. Other than Starlin Castro (.359) the next best is David DeJesus at .302. Jeff Baker (.289) and Darwin Barney (.281) are fighting for the next spot. The Cubs have a few who have been pretty good, but most have been rather terrible. Here are some of the starters for the Cubs: Ian Stewart (.258), Alfonso Soriano (.239, not even slugging .300) and Geovany Soto (.235).
Fielding and Baserunning
The Braves have a team 2.6 UZR while the Cubs are 4.0. The Braves are -7 in total zone and the Cubs are 2nd in baseball at 38. The Braves have 2 DRS and the Cubs -4. Overall the Cubs appear to have the better defensive team. Alfonso Soriano has 7.7 of that UZR for the Cubs while Michael Bourn has been the Braves best at 4.4.
The Cubs are 3rd in the league in BsR with 3.2 and the Braves are 5th at 2.7. David DeJesus has been the Cubs best with 1.5 BsR and Ian Stewart the worst with -0.5. No surprise to see Michael Bourn at the top for the Braves with 1.5 BsR. Cody Ross is the worst on the Braves at -0.5.
I predict the Cubs win the middle game of the series while the Braves take the other two.
Comments
Aisle424Quote Reply
Nate wrote:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
On 4/20 when Marlon Byrd was traded from the Cubs, we were 3-11. Since 4/21 when Tony “Don’t eat me seagulls” Campana was called up, we have been 8-6. If we combine this with Clevenger who is 3-1 in games that he starts then we may have a pretty good record by the end of the season when Clevenger gets healthy.
And if Jackson and Rizzo get called up sooner than later, we are World Series bound!!
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
They’ll make nice backups to Campy and LaHair.
joshQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I just don’t get why fans take things so personally.
mb21Quote Reply
Anyone know why Hamels hit Bryce? Was it because people talk about him positively? I mean, I guess I’m confused about what Bryce did wrong? The kiss from when he was in A ball?
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I don’t know really WHY they do it, but I can remember the feeling from childhood (specifically, Gregg Maddux). You really like a player and you want him to be on your team, and then he signs elsewhere for more money, even though you really, REALLY wanted him to stay. It feels like a personal insult, having invested a lot of emotion into a player. It’s not fair in any way, but it’s pretty common among sports fans.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
LF – LaHair
CF – Campana
RF – Jackson
Backup – DeJesus for RF. Or move Jackson to CF if Campana needs a rest.
1B – Rizzo
2B – Cardenas
SS – Castro
3B – Stewart
Utility – Mather/Barney
C – Soto (backup Clevenger)
SP – Garza/Demp/Samardzija/Maholm/Volstad (or T. Wood)
I think if we aren’t too far back at the trade deadline we can make a move for a 2B or 3B or a RP that would put us in a good position to make a hopeful run. World Series 2012!!
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Albert Jew-hols?
I’m kind of surprised about the baserunning rank since they keep running into outs all the damned time. Also…I thought Cody Ross was a Red Sox? If you’re talking about their other catcher, that’s David Ross.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Uh… I think you mean C – Clevenger (backup Soto). Also, we have a left fielder. His name is Alfonso Soriano and his defense is much improved!
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Apparently because it’s old school. Has he been suspended yet? What really stood out to me was some poll on ESPN that showed that 70% of people were OK with it. I don’t mind it, but I don’t think it’s necessary either.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Hit him just to hit him, basically? I don’t get it, but whatever.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I think if you do it to send a message, you let the message speak for itself and don’t admit to doing it. An admission of intent is really stupid even though everyone and their mother knows that it was intentional. You’re basically asking to be suspended at that point.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I know it’s a tiny sample, but Harper has a 15% walk rate. That’s crazy for someone his age.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I think you throw inside, but I don’t think you need to hit him. However, if you do it, you sure as fuck don’t admit it. Hamels is an idiot.
mb21Quote Reply
I like Hamels but am completely opposed to intentionally hitting players.
MishQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I can see why Nats fans are getting excited. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Harper stick at the MLB level.
joshQuote Reply
Speaking of Hamels, with the Phillies not exactly making progress on an extension…would he be a worthwhile risk for the Cubs?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
Because back in Hamels day, players had to walk 7 miles up hill in the snow just to arrive at their low-A minor league team. And then they toiled for several years as they made their way through High A, AA, and AAA. Then if they were lucky, by their 25th nameday they would be in the majors. And during their first at bat they would get plunked by a pitch, which meant you made it. Now-a-days you have kids with names like “Bryce” coming up in the majors when they aren’t even dickety years old yet.
WaLiQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/royals-fan-jumps-fountain-pursuit-humberto-quintero-home-144119974.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I don’t know. Is he old school enough?
joshQuote Reply
I hope cardenas gets some PT.. I would start him at second tonight
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I don’t mind intentionally hitting a batter in some situations. I’ll leave it to the players to figure those out. What bothers me is throwing at the batter’s head and admitting it’s intentional. I can usually figure out which ones are intentional. If it’s a fastball it’s probably intentional. Fastballs just don’t get that far away from the pitcher. You can usually tell. Just don’t admit it. You’re going to get suspended and it just looks silly.
mb21Quote Reply
If there’s a batter who crowds the plate he should be hit from time to time. If there’s a batter who has timed a pitcher up really well, he should also be hit on occasion. I’m even OK if the pitcher hits a batter who showed him up. That’s between them and I’m OK with it. Just don’t aim for the head and if you admit you’re going to look stupid.
The reality is that hitting batters is necessary. There are just better ways to do it than some have gone about it.
mb21Quote Reply
So who went down to make room for Cardenas?
MuckerQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Bryce Harper = Moonlight Graham
Cole Hamels = Eddie Cicotte
Maybe Harper winked at Hamels?
Bobby HansenQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I believe Travis Wood was sent down. Not sure if officially official, but implied.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Bobby Hansen:
Yeah, he probably wanted Hamels to think he knew something that Hamels didn’t know.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
But I thought they were both left-handed…
Well, at least they bat left-handed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
Travis Wood I think
NateQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7zvffHu_wo#t=01m16s
Aisle424Quote Reply
Mucker wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nZT3vyiHSs
GBTSQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
Somebody’s been drinking the Kool Aid again….Hope Monster flavored, I guess.
SkipVBQuote Reply
Cole Hamels is going to start for the Phillies again today on no days rest.
You know, old school.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ SkipVB:
Yeah and the hope infused Kool-Aid tastes good after a weekend-ending series win.
WaLiQuote Reply
dylanj wrote:
I say, relax. He had stretches like this last year. He’ll have stretches like this every year, unless he undergoes a Sosa-like transformation.
ACTQuote Reply
Seriously, folks, statistics don’t mean much at this point. It’s far too early to look for worrying “trends.” Just like last year, when Pena and Ramirez proved people wrong about their slow starts.
ACTQuote Reply
Nice. The Halladay Show is going to be on ESPN/ESPN3 tonight.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I agree. I’m not worried about Castro’s walk rate. I also don’t expect him to walk too much either, but that’s just because that’s the type of player he is.
mb21Quote Reply
@ ACT:
I agree on Castro. He’s not exactly consistent. He seems to go in bursts. And he’s never going to have much of a walk rate.
joshQuote Reply
Ichiro doesn’t walk worth a shit either. Maybe he can be more Ichiro early on and transform into Vlad later.
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
No they didn’t. They obviously only performed when it didn’t matter.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Guillermo Mota —-> suspended 100 days for PEDs.
joshQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/07/cole-hamels-suspended-five-games-for-intentionally-hitting-bryce-harper/
Maybe Hamels just wanted an extra week off 😛
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Lineup, per Hobbiton:
DeJesus RF
Campana CF
Castro SS
LaHair 1B
Stewart 3B
Johnson LF
Barney 2B
Soto C
Samardzija P
Also, Humber got fucking lit up again today.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://www.comedycentral.com/episodes/xl5ism/between-two-ferns-between-two-ferns-special-season-1-ep-1
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Cubs lose
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Already? Did F7 cut his hair?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
If Rafael Dolis pitches again tonight, MGL will know as much about him as he does Greg Maddux.
mb21Quote Reply
James Russell —> smarter than Cole Hamels
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2012/05/07/57-to-plunk-or-not-to-plunk/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Changing speeds with that splitter…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Is that a splitter, RC? He’s thrown a couple of beauties so far. I can’t identify pitches so well any more. – I was calling it a change-up (dying laughing).
cwolfQuote Reply
@ cwolf:
Gameday called it a splitter, I’m just going with it until I can get to a TV (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I don’t know if Smaradzija even throws a true changeup. He might be one of those pitchers who uses his splitter as a change.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
@ ACT:
Thanks.
I haven’t familiarized myself with Smaradzija’s repertoire too much since i fully expected him to fail badly. It’s looking more and more like I could be wrong (again) It’s still early in the season but he could be one of the relatively rare cases where TRANSFORMATION happens. (dying laughing).
cwolfQuote Reply
LaHair!
ACTQuote Reply
Stewart!
ACTQuote Reply
That was a power surge I recently enjoyed.
Mobile RiceQuote Reply
F7 has been using that splitter in a couple different ways. The first thing I’ve noticed is that he can change speeds on it effectively. He’s thrown it from 92-97, according to what I’ve seen on Gameday. He’s also been able to locate it well. Seems like he likes to throw it hard and in on the hands to RHB, and take something off and throw it on the outer third to LHB. It’s been a great pitch for him, according to my lying eyes.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Holy screaming eagle shit, LaHair is on an incredible tear.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Even LaHair’s out was loud.
ACTQuote Reply
Z is having a nice day, even if it is against the Astros.
ACTQuote Reply
I just turned the game on, and F7’s splitter is literally unhittable.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Yeah, when he is locating that pitch, fuhgettaboutit.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
They must not be mentally prepared again.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
This year’s Astros are surprisingly good at scoring.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
BABIP hearts F7
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7_1sLagZ0Q
That was an out!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Pat Fitzgerald does not stop talking.
GBTSQuote Reply
I hope LaHair is okay, he’s hobbling down to first.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
My bet is that it’s a mirage.
ACTQuote Reply
CG shutout by Z. 9 K’s, 3 hits, 1 walk.
ACTQuote Reply
Cubs have had some beanball issues with the Braves in the past, correct?
GBTSQuote Reply
So Carlos Zambrano is having himself a nice start of the season.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
They should have thrown LaHair a spinning slider up in the zone.
joshQuote Reply
Marmol walked the first batter? I’m shocked. Shocked!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Gf8NK1WAOc
ACTQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Games don’t matter early in the season.
joshQuote Reply
Marmol just wants to help the Cubs get a good draft pick next year.
ACTQuote Reply
3 strikes thrown, zero called.
joshQuote Reply
Jesus Christ Marmol…
No wonder 99% of Cubs fans hate you.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So… was that good Marmol or bad Marmol?
ACTQuote Reply
Classic Marmol inning.
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Zero runs given up = good Marmol inning.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Shut me right up.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
According to gameday, that pitch was on the inside corner. How did it not hit Reed?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Because he swung at it and made an out?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Soto!
ACTQuote Reply
GEO
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I meant ball 1
joshQuote Reply
Yay Soto!
joshQuote Reply
Reed Johnson is terrible.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Cardenas hit it hard…too bad it wasn’t where they ain’t.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It would be nice if the real Geo Soto stood up.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’ll never make another “Reedz crowds the plate” joke again.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Looks like he got his pot-smoking hair cut, so he should be good from here on out.
joshQuote Reply
The Cards are pretty good at scoring runs.
ACTQuote Reply
Holy crap fog.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, what the hell?
joshQuote Reply
James Russel may actually be the Cubs’ best reliever at this point. Which makes me very, very sad.
ACTQuote Reply
Another nice outing by Samardzija. Cubs can’t complain about the starts they’ve been getting. Hell, maybe they should have gone after a big bat in the off-season afterall.
joshQuote Reply
DeJesus saw 26 pitches in his 5 PA.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I lost it at the blooper reel.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
And even better now, eh?
SkipVBQuote Reply
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=21243303&c_id=mlb
Z’s shutout. I miss Z.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
False
BerseliusQuote Reply
I still have some major cognitive dissonance going on when I realize that I’m more excited for a F7 start over the rest of the rotation.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Until Jackson and/or Rizzo get here, I’m not excited about anything on this team.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I know what you mean. Maybe there’s a train wreck effect? Like in the back of you’re mind you’re thinking he’s going to fall and fall hard.
joshQuote Reply
Peter Gammons @pgammo
Scout’s comp on Samardzija:Healthy Josh Johnson, downhill 98 MPH, great tilt to slider, filthy split, 91 MPH cutter…
This really is unreal…
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
I’m drunk on Hope Monster Flavored Kool-Aid. We just shut down the best offense in baseball with our #3 pitcher. The Braves were averaging 5.75 runs/game before last nights game. Samardzija is looking fantastic. Soto might be returning to form. Stewart has 3 HR on the year, which is 3 more than last year. And LaHair continues to tear it up.
Also Dempster’s ERA+ is 401, which has to be sustainable.
There are a lot of funny things going on in baseball this year (See: Baltimore Orioles) Why not have the Cubs win the W.S. in their first true rebuilding year that I can remember?
This is a year!! It’s gonna happen!
WaLiQuote Reply
@ josh:
There’s still a huge novelty factor involved
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m kind of baffled by the HBP stuff last night. Bob suggested that F7 retaliated for Hanson hitting Reed Johnson by hitting Heyward. I missed the Heyward HBP but maybe it was for the HR earlier in the game, if anything. Then it took O’Whateverthehell three extremely inside pitches to hit DeJesus. I’m surprised he wasn’t tossed along with Gonzalez, they were all insanely inside on WGN’s pitchtrack.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Seriously though, what team would want to protect Reed Fucking Johnson (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
I don’t think the Heyward plunking had anything to do with Reed’s HBP. Reed was hit by an 83 mph pitch.
I think it is more likely they felt Heyward was crowding the plate (and had hit the HR) and Bosio wanted to send a message. Luckily, Samardzija is smarter than Cole Hamels and he’s not admitting it was intentional.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I don’t know why Hamels didn’t just throw the media off the scent by complimenting Fidel Castro
BerseliusQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
I thought it was kind of funny because we were talking about intentional hit by pitches and I said you can almost always tell when it’s intentional. That was obviously intentional. I don’t know why, but when you unleash a fastball in the middle of some guy’s back, I’d say the odds of it being intentional are higher than 90%.
I also thought it was funny to watch Heyward look at F7. I’m going to guess that F7 would kick the shit out of Heyward.
mb21Quote Reply
If LaHair plays at replacement level the rest of the season he will have put together a league average season. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
ZiPS rest of season has LaHair at a .361 wOBA and 2.1 additional WAR.
mb21Quote Reply
WaLi wrote:
Correct.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Heyward is big man, but you don’t take on a former football player. Even if he was only a WR.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Fresh excrement
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/where-we-stand-now-starting-pitching.html
BerseliusQuote Reply