In part 1 we found that there were currently 13 players on the Cubs roster that the Cubs want to keep assuming they try to contend next year, which they will. We left off talking briefly about Aramis Ramirez and the club option the Cubs hold for $16 million (or a $2 million buyout). Using Ramirez’s .354 rest of season ZiPS and 550 plate appearances, I get about 2.7 WAR for Ramirez. We must adjust that for age and it comes down to about 2.3 WAR. The value of the win next season is estimated to be about $4.8 million. That makes him worth $11 million next season.
That’s $3 milion more than the Cubs would have to pay if they kept him (the $2 million buyout is guaranteed). If there aren’t any other options, then Ramirez may be worth it, but it seems a good position to use as a platoon for next season. Jeff Baker kills lefties. He has a career .387 wOBA vs lefties and it’s nearly 100 points lower vs righties. We’d have to regress both numbers to get a reasonable projection, but I don’t see any reason he can’t post a .350 wOBA vs lefties next season. What about his platoon partner?
With the exception of 84 AA plate appearances in 2010 and 33 plate appearances so far at AAA, Ryan Flaherty has been a very good hitter in the minor leagues. I can only find his splits data for the current team (Iowa Cubs) and since it’s only 33 PA it’s useless, but word is that he’s a very good hitter against righties. Since we know little about him, let’s just say a league average wOBA for him against the right-handed pitchers. I’d be surprised if it isn’t higher, but whatever.
Flaherty would get about 400 PA while Baker would get 200. We end up with a wOBA around .335 or so between the two. I didn’t include defense or baserunning in Ramirez’s projection, which would of course lower it so I won’t do it here either. Needless to say, it’s difficult to believe that these two wouldn’t be better fielders and better baserunners than Ramirez. In the end, they’re probably not quite as valuable, but the total amount paid, including the buyout for Ramirez, would be $5 million or less. That’s a savings of $11 million and they probably haven’t gotten much worse. They can use that $11 million to buy additional wins elsewhere. In fact, they could buy about 2 and a half wins.
Now that we have 14 players on our roster, we need to organize them by position.
C: Geovany Soto
1B:
2B: Darwin Barney
3B: Ryan Flaherty, Jeff Baker
SS: Starlin Castro
Util If:
LF: Alfonso Soriano
CF: Marlon Byrd
RF:
OF:
SP: Matt Garza
SP: Carlos Zambrano
SP: Ryan Dempster
SP: Randy Wells
SP:
CL: Carlos Marmol
SU: Sean Marshall
RP: Andrew Cashner
RP: LM1, LM2, LM3, LM4
The last four relievers are league minimum guys bringing the roster to 18 and leaving holes at 1st, RF, 4th OF, and SP, as well as a backup catcher, middle infielder and the so-called 5th outfielder. None of the backup spots do we really want to spend much money on so we’ll use league minimum guys for those 3 spots.
Next time we have to figure out how good or bad these players make a team and what kind of additions the Cubs need to contend. It may turn out that we have to pay Soriano a shitload of money just to free up a spot where we can add a much better ballplayer. That may be the only way this team can contend, though it makes it less likely we can do so while only increasing payroll a small amount in 2012. Before that, let’s figure out how much these players are going to be paid.
The players currently under contract or arbitration eligible will be paid roughly $93 million. Adding in league minimum guys and the 40-man roster, you’re right around $100 million. That’s a rough estimation of how much the players listed above will be paid next year. This year’s payroll is $135 million so we have plenty of flexibility here. Before we look at free agents or trade possibilities we need to figure out how good this team is and we’ll do that next time.
Comments
I dont think you can contend with thqat rotation
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
It would look a lot better with someone like Sabathia at the top.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It would look a lot better with someone like Sabathia at the top.[/quote]I agree, but the question is how much does he cost and how much do you have to backload the deal? Sabathia alone doesn’t make this team a contender. The Cubs need to add at least one other star caliber player. My guess is that one of them would have to come through a trade. Too bad McNutt has had a difficult to shitty season so far.
mb21Quote Reply
This would take some “Major League” brand scouting and movie magic.
And even in the first one, if you believe “Major League II” exists, they lost in the league championship series 😛
Rice CubeQuote Reply
How many wins do we think that the $100 spent will add up to? Because the $35 difference between that money spent and this year payroll will only be worth about 7 wins. That means the above listed player would need to already be at about 78-83 wins to even have a remote shot at contending.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
I’ll go on the low side and say 85 to contend, minus 48 wins for a replacement level team would be 37 wins, minus the 7 they can buy, Are the above players worth 30 wins?
edit: dumb @ math
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
I think the inexpensive backup catcher thing also assumes that you get rid of Koyie Hill and bring up Welington Castillo or Steve Clevenger. Otherwise Koyie is getting a $2MM contract because he’s so awesome.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]I’ll go on the low side and say 85 to contend, minus 48 wins for a replacement level team would be 37 wins, minus the 7 they can buy, Are the above players worth 30 wins?
edit: dumb @ math[/quote]
C: Geovany Soto (even year, so let’s say 4 WAR)
1B:
2B: Darwin Barney (2 WAR, optimistically)
3B: Ryan Flaherty, Jeff Baker (3 WAR?)
SS: Starlin Castro (3 WAR)
Util If:
LF: Alfonso Soriano (2 WAR)
CF: Marlon Byrd (3 WAR)
RF:
OF:
SP: Matt Garza (4 WAR, optimism goggles engaged)
SP: Carlos Zambrano (2 WAR, conservatively)
SP: Ryan Dempster (2 WAR)
SP: Randy Wells (2 WAR, we hope)
SP:
CL: Carlos Marmol (2 WAR)
SU: Sean Marshall (2 WAR)
RP: Andrew Cashner (1 WAR)
RP: LM1, LM2, LM3, LM4 (1 WAR without the bedshitting)
Total RC half-assed WAR: 33
So…maybe?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]How many wins do we think that the $100 spent will add up to? Because the $35 difference between that money spent and this year payroll will only be worth about 7 wins. That means the above listed player would need to already be at about 78-83 wins to even have a remote shot at contending.[/quote]RC’s estimates are probably fairly close, but I’d imagine on the high end. Not too far off though or at least I wouldn’t think.
The money they have to spend is going to have to be spent like they did after the 2006 season. Say you sign Albert Pujols to a 8 year, $200 million contract. You’re going to pay him something like $10 million in 2012, $15 million in 2013 and so on. You’ve used up less than a third of the available money on Pujols. Now you go after Sabathia and you backload that contract. Maybe you trade Wells and a couple prospects for another top of the line starting pitcher.
mb21Quote Reply
That much backloading seems like it’d be obvious to the player though. How likely do you think they’d be cool with that? They have to know that they’re getting stiffed up front, especially if getting paid $15MM less than the annual average in the first year.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Players often accept those kinds of deals. The Cubs probably have to pay a little more overall since the present value of the contract would be lower.
mb21Quote Reply
My lying eyes tell me that Starlin Castro has been unusually impatient lately with first and second-pitch outs.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing) I didn’t even know the Cubs were on until RC’s comment.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]My lying eyes tell me that Starlin Castro has been unusually impatient lately with first and second-pitch outs.[/quote]It’s fucking pathological with this team.. Soto and Fukudome are the only two hitters on the team with any kind of patience, maybe the only two hitters in the entire org.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
That is some good baserunning from Carlos Lee there to tag up from first on a super-deep flyout.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It’s fucking pathological with this team.. Soto and Fukudome are the only two hitters on the team with any kind of patience, maybe the only two hitters in the entire org.[/quote]Brett Jackson has the best patience in the entire organization. I don’t even think it’s close.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]That is some good baserunning from Carlos Lee there to tag up from first on a super-deep flyout.[/quote]By reputation, Lee has always been a solid baserunner. Had double-digit steals for a few years, despite being huge and not very fast.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Brett Jackson has the best patience in the entire organization. I don’t even think it’s close.[/quote]There was more than a little hyperbole there on my part.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I do often wonder why the patient guys just watch called third strikes sneak by when they’re so close to the plate and they should be in protect mode, but I guess it comes with the territory.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rich Harden is pitching against the Yankees today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I do often wonder why the patient guys just watch called third strikes sneak by when they’re so close to the plate and they should be in protect mode, but I guess it comes with the territory.[/quote]It’s because they find themselves in so many 2 strike counts. Part of taking pitches is of course working deep counts. Starlin Castro would strike out a lot more if he was working deep counts.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Rich Harden is pitching against the Yankees today.[/quote]Ooh, that might be my regional game! I would love to watch him pitch again.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Ooh, that might be my regional game! I would love to watch him pitch again.[/quote]
In typical Rich Harden fashion he’s already thrown almost 60 pitches through 3 IP (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]In typical Rich Harden fashion he’s already thrown almost 60 pitches through 3 IP (dying laughing)[/quote]Ugh. Well, the wife has commandeered the tv anyway.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Yay Soto!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Soto with a big fly!
These guys are never going to get the #1 pick this way.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Soto with a big fly!
These guys are never going to get the #1 pick this way.[/quote]
There’s still time for some bedshitting.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Harden is maxing out around 95 mph today. Hope his arm doesn’t explode after this last DL stint.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Too bad Wandy will probably lose today because of two big mistakes. It’s amazing to think that there’s a team out there worse than the Cubs.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Kosuke SLG almost at OBP again.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
bourn acting like pence has already been traded
GWQuote Reply
Soto almost killed the 3B on that infield single.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Has anyone mentioned Kaplan’s comments from his show last night? He said that Soriano has played his last season in chicago and if they don’t move they plan to release him.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]Has anyone mentioned Kaplan’s comments from his show last night? He said that Soriano has played his last season in chicago and if they don’t move they plan to release him.[/quote]
The story I read suggests that the Cubs are willing to eat a lot of money to get a prospect back, but I don’t know if it also means they just flat out cut him.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ Marmol
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I don’t think Marmol was bad (except for that 1 pitch). HIs slider was mostly good and hard to hit, and he located his fastball OK. He was a little unlucky in that the first batter got a good swing at a good slider, and Aramis turned a double play ball into an FC.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]The story I read suggests that the Cubs are willing to eat a lot of money to get a prospect back, but I don’t know if it also means they just flat out cut him.[/quote]yeah this was just some passing comments by him on his show last night. Not sure he’s put it in writing but he indicated sources told him this is his last season as a Cub no matter what. He then went straight into his anti-Ramirez rant.
JManQuote Reply
So, the Cubs won an actual series against an actual major league team. Well, sorta.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]yeah this was just some passing comments by him on his show last night. Not sure he’s put it in writing but he indicated sources told him this is his last season as a Cub no matter what. He then went straight into his anti-Ramirez rant.[/quote]
I don’t usually listen to Kaplan but I’m sure it’d probably make me angry more than actually informing me hehe.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs —> #3 pick if Baltimore loses later tonight.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t usually listen to Kaplan but I’m sure it’d probably make me angry more than actually informing me hehe.[/quote]Oh yeah it’s mind-boggling what he comes with as his excuse to hate on players. He said Ramirez is hitting well now because the pressure is off. I turned it off after that because I was going to call-in. I was listening in the first place because I was travelling down-state and was forced to choose between country music and sports talk-radio.
JManQuote Reply
You gotta remember that the Cubs scraped out the division in 2007. 85 wins. The Brewers had it in their hands and dropped the ball. Probably our best bet is to shoot for 85 wins next year, and hope either that brings the fans and gives them some flexibility for 2013 or that the Brewers/Pirates/Cards/Reds all are their usual inconsistent selves.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]Oh yeah it’s mind-boggling what he comes with as his excuse to hate on players. He said Ramirez is hitting well now because the pressure is off. I turned it off after that because I was going to call-in. I was listening in the first place because I was travelling down-state and was forced to choose between country music and sports talk-radio.[/quote]I listened to Kap and Memelo a lot two years ago. I was convinced a major change was coming and that we were going to rebuild. I was excited. I knew this season was a waste. Then we bought Pena and threw away our minor league system on Garza and I haven’t listened since.
binkyQuote Reply
for anyone with milb tv you can watch McNutt try to pitch for an inning
dylanjQuote Reply
well mcnutt looks like he is alive. thats a good start
dylanjQuote Reply
mcnutt getting hit early
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]well mcnutt looks like he is alive. thats a good start[/quote][quote name=dylanj]mcnutt getting hit early[/quote]
This seemed contradictory until I realized that in your first comment you were merely praising the fact that McNutt wasn’t dead (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
he faced neftali soto and had two fastballs around 94 right on the corner. and the soto got a cheap rbi blooper to RF
dylanjQuote Reply
New Pic of the Day up: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/ov-pic-of-the-day-some-people-really-dont-like-houston.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
I see McNutt is trying to lower his strikeout rate even further.
Hey, he struck someone out. Big game for McNutt tonight.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I dont think you can contend with thqat rotation[/quote]
…or that offense… or that defense… or that bullpen. This exercise is going to lead us back to the inevitability that the Cubs are screwed in 2012 (and maybe longer) if they blow a lot of money futilely trying to contend next season.
I look forward to the next installment, but I haven’t seen anything yet to show the Cubs would need less than a $150m payroll to get them even to 85 wins with the gaps left in this team.
I’ll be extremely happy if they can get in the mid-to-high 70s and develop and evaluate Cashner (as a starter), McNutt, Jacksonx2, Flaherty, LeMahieu, Szczur, etc. The Cubs can do that and not spend a dime. If they can somehow convince Fielder or Pujols to not want $25M+/yr, then I’m all for bringing one of them in, but they have to know contending in 2012 is a long shot at best, and I don’t think they’re going to come at a discount to play on a losing team.
JacksRevengeQuote Reply