Team Overviews
| Cubs | Nats | |
| wRC+ | 78 (16th) | 98 (4th) |
| BSR | -0.7 (9th) | -15.5 (16th) |
| UZR | 19.1 (3rd) | 19.5 (2nd) |
| DRS | -5 (9th) | -3 (7th) |
| SP FIP- | 104 (11th) | 86 (1st) |
| RP FIP- | 113 (16th) | 95 (6th) |
The Nats are definitely a deserving first place team.
Pitching Matchups
Monday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (4.03, 3.69, 3.42, 3.88) vs Ross Detweiler, LHP (3.32, 3.66, 4.22, 4.06), 12:05 PM CT
The Transformation Continues. Samardzija is at 158.2 IP, 70 more than last year and shows no signs of slowing down. Samardzija has gone seven innings in four of his last five starts, striking out 39 batters and walking seven in 33 innings. He's also given up six homers in that stretch, but they were almost all solo shots and three were on a hot day in Cincy.
When you see a guy with a below 6 K/9 and a great ERA, you have to figure the guy is a sinkerballer. He's had some help on his grounders (.265 BABIP) and balls in the air (6.9% HR/FB), but he's been a solid guy in the rotation for the Nats. It looks like he's effectively Strasburg's replacement in the postseason rotation, and most teams would be happy with a statline like Detweiler's. Of course, they'd be much happier with one of the best pitchers in baseball instead.
Tuesday: Chris Rusin, LHP (SSS) vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (3.53, 3.86, 3.78, 3.93), 7:05 PM CT
Rusin actually did okay in his debut last month, striking out four and walking two while giving up one run in five innings. But there's a reason why he doesn't even have a projection. I think I compared him to James Russell in his last start, and that's going to be his career trajectory if everythings goes right for him.
I am disappoint that Edwin Jackson actually spent the whole year with the Nats. This is the seventh team he's played for in ten seasons in the bigs. He's a guy I always underrate, and has posted sub-4.0 FIPs over the past four years. The Cards picked him up for the stretch run last year and while he posted a 3.58 ERA all of his peripherals jumped in a negative direction. He pitched adequately in his first postseason start against the Phillies, but didn't make it out of the fifth against the Brewers. He was yanked after giving up three homers in two innings later in that series, and walked seven in five innings in his lone world series start.
Wednesday: Chris Volstad, RHP (6.06, 4.28, 4.47, 4.41) vs Gio Gonzalez, LHP (3.10, 2.84, 3.33, 3.45), 7:05 PM CT
It's a winning streak! Volstad is now on pace to win every game for the rest of his careeer. No wonder the Cubs traded Carlos Zambrano and a Heisenberg-sized pile of cash for him.
After seemingly being traded a zillion times as a prospect, Gonzalez posted two solid years as a full-time starter with the A's before the Nats sent a load of talent their way to acquire him. They signed him to an extension as well, and Gonzalez has rewarded them with his best season yet. He walks a fair share of batters but makes up for it with strikeouts and a seeming ability to keep the ball in the park. He's posted HR/9 of 0.67, 0.76, 0.43 over the past two seasons and change. Some of it could be help from the spacious Oakland ballpark, but another big part is the fact that besides being a strikeout pitcher he does a good job at keeping the ball on the ground.
Thursday: Justin Germano, RHP (5.52, 3.74, 4.31, 3.86) vs Jordan Zimmermann, RHP (3.01, 3.62, 3.81, 3.77), 7:05 PM CT
The less said about Germano, the better. His last three starts have been about as expected, giving up 17 runs in around 15 innings. I'm not sure why he doesn't get the vitriol that a lot of the other also-rans have received this year (Mather, Valbuena, Campana, Volstad, Raley, etc.).
Zimmermann is almost the forgotten man in the Nats rotation. He was the big thing a few years ago, but then he had Tommy John surgery around the time Strasburg made his arrival, and it seems like he's been in his shadow ever since. He's yet another relatively hard throwing groundball type. I'm sensing a trend here…
Comments
At least Vitters isn’t batting 2nd.
mb21Quote Reply
Happy Labor Day, folks.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
COME ON MATHER
Suburban kidQuote Reply
mb21Quote Reply
One last thought on yesterday’s game: I was surprised at how soft BJaxx’s arm is. I’d heard he was this great player, and his only weakness was the whiffage. But his two throws late in the game, while not quite Juan. Pierre (dying laughing)-esque, won’t exactly make you forget Ellis Valentine. That was pretty disappointing.
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
The “Theo Caused All the Problems in Boston” meme is really reaching fever pitch. Henry certainly has done a good job of proliferating that message.
I’m not saying Theo is perfect (he certainly made some terrible decisions) but it should be noted the When John Henry took over Liverpool, he did the same thing with the former owners (Americans Gillette and Hicks). All these stories start coming out, this faceless PR campaign begins touting their failures. He then hired Kenny Dalglish (a club legend as a player and former manager), a crusty veteran, back-to-basics hire. Dalglish spent his time mainly trying to field a team of nothing but English players (because they play the “right way” you see). It failed. Dalglish was fired (much like Valentine will be very soon) and replaced by the new hot young manager in the Prem (I expect the Red Sox will go this route when Valentine is shitcanned), and in short order we hear how the problem was that Dalglish and Personnel Director Comolli were at fault for the failure. Why? Because they were buying and selling the wrong players. Sound familiar? Henry is a master at the PR game. Don’t buy the line he’s peddling.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder: What makes you say this Theo-is-the-root-of-all-Boston-problems meme is reaching fever-pitch? I’m not disagreeing — I’m just wondering where you’re seeing it. I saw this article and this one — what else did you see?
Simmons talked about Theo in this column, but it was more laudatory…
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
@ Steve Swisher:
Well, the pieces you cited, and this stuff that’s come out the last two days about Theo supposedly ignoring Bill James.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Don’t tell me what to do
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
FLAGGED
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Nice start for F7.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
The John Hendry didn’t like the Crawford signing came out BEFORE Crawford was signed. Some of the rest is just typical ownership laying problems on past management. Nothing too surprising about that.
The fact of the matter is that the Red Sox are in a very similar situation that the Cubs were recently in and Theo is a large part of why they are there. This doesn’t take away from all the good things he did, which he did a lot of, but let’s face it, the Red Sox at this point are well within their right to blame Theo. Much of it belongs on him.
Much of the credit for the Sox being as good as they were for as long as were is in large part because of him too. Yesterday was tv theme day and AC said this: you take the good, you take the bad…
It just so happens that the bad is the most recent development in Boston. Hendry was unfairly blamed for all of the Cubs problems. Theo’s being blamed for all of the Sox troubles. I don’t think there’s anything surprising about the GM taking the bulk of the blame when things don’t work out. Is it fair? No and hopefully people point out all the good things Theo did.
mb21Quote Reply
If I’m the GM and I have Tom Tippett on staff I probably would ignore Bill James. Bill James is a fantastic writer and he’s done some great things, but Tippet is the better analyst these days. I’d take his input over James any day if I was running the organization. I doubt Theo ignored James, but I’m guessing Theo was smart enough to realize that Tippett could provide more valuable statistical information.
mb21Quote Reply
(h/t Chicago Vince)
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Agreed. The major reason why Henry’s blame-shifting works so well, is that it has some basis in fact. But it really takes the spotlight off the common denominator to two eerily similar sets of circumstances with two legendary franchises: an owner who, as an astute commenter at The Book Blog pointed out, is “results-oriented in a very obtuse way:”
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I think all baseball owners and probably all sports owners are results oriented. Thoyer have 5 years to turn the Cubs around. It does not matter how many intelligent decisions they make along the way. In the end they have 5 years to turn it around or they’re gone. I’m fine with that. I want the GM to be intelligent, but I want the owner to demand the results be there.
mb21Quote Reply
It’s all in Josh Vitters’ hands.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Glad to see you finally got accepted to that grad program, AC
http://www.mcnallysmith.edu/degrees-programs/majors-areas-of-study/hip-hop
Suburban kidQuote Reply
The O’s are currently a game behind the yanks.
GWQuote Reply
Via Joe Poz’s blog, the guy who wrote Braves Journal died of cancer a couple days ago 🙁
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/09/mac-and-braves-journal.html
Apparently Alex Remington is one of their writers, or THE writer, now.
http://www.bravesjournal.com/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
This looks like fun. Think I can take it on-line or correspondence?
SVBQuote Reply
Michael Clarke Duncan passed away.. Only 54.
WaLi99Quote Reply
@ WaLi99:
That’s sad. He was still very young. Little know fact, he used to work for the gas company in Chicago before he became an actor. My father worked with him.
Mobile RodrigoQuote Reply
@ GW:
The hell? Joe Pasnanski pointed out that their winning percentage in 1-run games is like .793 (and that was last week). Huge home winning percentage helps. I’m not sure anyone predicted Adam Jones to break out like he has either.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
They’re got a solid bullpen too, which is probably playing into it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
The FIP numbers are middle of the pack, but they have a 3.02 ERA
BerseliusQuote Reply
Jones was a big-time prospect a few years back. People expected this from him, just a lot sooner.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
That probably helps account for that crazy 1-run game win percentage.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
True. It’s always exciting when a big prospect pans out, even if there is a delay. Or so I understand.
joshQuote Reply
The thing people who aren’t remotely buying the orioles always site is their negative run differential. It is actually down to -31, but I did the math last week and if you measure only the games in which Tommy Hunter has pitched the differential is -34. I remembered he was having a horrible year and thought that a team in a playoff chase trotting him out every 5th day was insane (though they eventually stopped the madness).
koboldekoboldQuote Reply
@ Mobile Rodrigo:
Didn’t he try out for the Bears too?
WaLiQuote Reply
Not sure how good universal health care is in Europe, but I’d assume Walt wouldn’t be making as much meth in the UK:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Boston has made an appearance in the Race to the Top.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
There could possibly be two 100+ loss teams coming from the same division. I know it’s been done before (I think Tigers and Royals not too far back) but it has to be pretty rare.
WaLiQuote Reply
Alvin is campaigning for lower ticket prices again because “it just won’t work.” God help me, I took the bait.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Noticed that…Also, his “STH are losing money” argument is ridiculous… STH knew the team was gonna be awful, but they paid the money anyway…If I buy a movie on BluRay that I know is going to be horrible, I didn’t lose money, I just made a bad investment…
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
There are still people that think they can buy tickets and have it be “free” to them because they sell enough at a profit to make up for the cost of the games they actually attend, but that is a very small group of people at this point. Maybe some people didn’t realize that scalpers would buy fewer tickets this year to protect themselves from having too much inventory? Maybe there are some people who thought they might miraculously get better with Theo at the controls? But that has got to be a small number. Most everybody else knew what they were getting themselves into.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I thought Al went to every game anyway.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Me want Cubs tickets! Me want World Series and money!
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Daily’d. http://wp.me/p2gIH3-1Bu
AndCountingQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply