Want to know when a statistic is useless?

In News And Rumors by dmick89Leave a Comment

Aramis Ramirez leads the Major Leagues with a .427 batting average in August while teammate Reed Johnson is fifth at .400. Ramirez is tied for tops among any Cubs player in the month of August, dating to 1946. Shawon Dunston batted .427 in August 1991; Bill Madlock hit .425 in August 1975; and Manny Trillo hit .409 in august 1986. Carrie Muskat

You’ll often hear people who appreciate stats say that something is a small sample. This means that the amount of playing time isn’t sufficient to find the statistic as having any value whatsoever. This is something that people learn at very early ages. Did you ever flip a coin as a child that lands 3 times in a row on heads or tails? Did you run to Mommy and tell her that you had a coin that was always going to land on heads or tails? Of course you didn’t. Even at that age, you understood that 3 coin flips was not nearly sufficient to reach that conclusion.

That had .3 and .5 inches. These mean nothing becasue the samples are insufficient and they are nothing other than a subset of a much larger set of statistics.

Anyway, the batting average for the month of August is just that: useless. Know how I know? Because Shawon Dunston is tied for best in Cubs history in a single August month. Because Manny Trillo is 4th best. Dunston, career .269 hitter, and Trillo, career .263 hitter, being at the top of any list of batting average means one or two things: the split is useless and/or the statistic being measured is useless.

In this case, it’s a bit of both. Batting average is mostly useless, but the monthly splits are entirely useless. 


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  1. ACT

    [quote name=josh]It is frustrating day after day to watch the Cubs get runners on and fail to score. You can’t put all the blame on those two, it’s a teamwide problem.[/quote]The bigger issue for me is that BA with RISP is a junk stat that should not be used to evaluate players. To dismiss the usefulness of Byrd or to compare Soto to Hill (!!) on the basis of 1 season’s worth of that stat is injudicious.

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  2. ACT

    There are better ways of looking at “clutch” situations than RISP, and there are better measures of performance than BA. And one season of sample size won’t tell you much. If you want to know how well a hitter does in certain situations, you have to look at career stats over a long career, and even then you have to regress the differential (between his observed performance in that situation and his typical performance) toward the mean of performance differential for all players. In general, it’s probably just safe to assume that a player will perform very close to his career numbers in any situation.

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  3. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]Ari Kaplan called. He said, “False.”[/quote]He called the Obstructed View offices? I’ve been trying to connect with someone there for 3 months about my paychecks. I figure they’re just lost in the mail.

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  4. Joe Borowski

    Interesting, but I’m not sure I agree with your argument.

    Sincerely,
    Joe Borowski
    Cub record holder for most consecutive saves (21)

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  5. binky

    [quote name=ACT]The bigger issue for me is that BA with RISP is a junk stat that should not be used to evaluate players. To dismiss the usefulness of Byrd or to compare Soto to Hill (!!) on the basis of 1 season’s worth of that stat is injudicious.[/quote]No, I’m not arguing that their reasoning is flawed. I agree that Soto and Byrd are extremely useful players. I’m just saying that when you are frustrated by a pattern of futility like we have seen this year, you tend to grasp any straw the media is offering as an explanation. Is there something in the numbers that helps us understand what is happening–why our team has been so ineffective in scoring runs? Maybe there isn’t an it’s a mental issue, or something that you have to chalk up to bad luck. I read that Byrd is confident in his approach, even if the numbers aren’t panning out right now. Sounds like he’s a guy who intrinsically gets that he’s playing a game that requires large numbers and that changing your methods in reaction to a small sample set is not going to benefit you in the long run.

    Are the Cubs players in general striking out too much? Failing to hit the ball in the air? Are they hitting toward the wrong side of the field (insofar as a player can affect the direction of a given pitch–obviously in BP you can learn techniques to make the ball go to different fields, but pitchers pitch to the corners and put spins on the ball to counteract some of this). Are they swinging at pitches earlier in the count when runners are on? Or, like I said, is there basically no good reason we can glean from the stats, and we just have to chalk this up to shitty luck and try again next year?

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  6. Chris Dickerson

    Baez, Vogelbach and Shoulders hit 2/3/4 today in the last game for the AZL Cubs.

    AZ Phil had an interesting writeup on Baez…

    “He doubled off the top of the LF fence and then stole 3B in the bottom of the 1st, flied out to the warning track in CF in his 2nd AB in the 3rd, flied out to the warning track in LF in the bottom of the 5th, and then doubled off the top of the right-centerfield fence in his 4th PA leading off the five-run 8th. No question the kid has big-time power.”

    Then, there was this, which should be a stellar theme for Baez’s game with Chicago media should he arrive in the big leagues.

    “The 18-year old Baez is kind of cocky and a bit of a ‘hot dog’ (like holding the ball an extra beat and then firing a rocket to 1st base, or trying to turn a routine play into an ESPN Sports Center highlight), and he is a bit chippy with the umpires, too.”

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  7. binky

    The only thing I would say in counter to this is that let’s say Reed Johnson comes to the plate 10 times in three games and gets a base hit every time (RISP or not) including a couple of doubles and a homerun. Not just infield singles, but he’s hitting line drives every time. The numbers say he’s now batting .450 for August — totally useless statistic. But on the other hand, as a coach you see that he’s hitting the ball really well right now. He’s hitting pitcher’s pitches. He’s working every count the way you’d want a guy to work the count. Forgetting the numbers, he’s doing something right in those games, and so there seems to be justification for playing him in that fourth game, and see if he is still on a roll or not, isn’t there? It’s not because he’s “hitting .450” but because he’s hitting effectively right now.

    So as fans we see that he’s getting hits a lot and what do we say? “Johnson is hot right now; he’s hitting like .450 over the last three weeks.” I think there’s some element of expressing something with the numbers that appeals to baseball fans, whether the statistic is strictly meaningful or not. Players do have hot streaks and runs where they are hitting a lot. They also have streaks where they don’t. It isn’t useful as a scouting metric, but it might be useful as a way to express happiness or frustration with current performance. I really think that’s about all batting average is good for.

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  8. GBTS

    [quote name=Chris Dickerson]
    “The 18-year old Baez is kind of cocky and a bit of a ‘hot dog’ (like holding the ball an extra beat and then firing a rocket to 1st base, or trying to turn a routine play into an ESPN Sports Center highlight), and he is a bit chippy with the umpires, too.”[/quote]Oh, this will end well.

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  9. mb21

    So as fans we see that he’s getting hits a lot and what do we say? “Johnson is hot right now; he’s hitting like .450 over the last three weeks.” I think there’s some element of expressing something with the numbers that appeals to baseball fans, whether the statistic is strictly meaningful or not.

    Agreed. The numbers I quoted above are interesting, but not valuable. ACT likes a player to hit .300. That’s a personal preference. A .300 batting average can be valuable and can result in a pretty bad season. Making a highlight reel play is entertaining even if it’s by a poor fielder.

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  10. ACT

    The Cubs are just slightly below average in runs scored and slightly above average in terms of linear weights and measures like wOBA. wRC (runs created based on linear weights) predicts the cubs should have scored 560 runs, but they have only scored 539 (as of yesterday). At least half of the differential could be attributed to bad baserunning, and the rest may just be bad luck.

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  11. mb21

    Why is holding the ball at 3rd base “an extra beat and then firing to first” a bit cocky? Should he just come up firing even if the baserunner is just getting out of the box? Should he throw off one foot even though the runner is 78 feet away?

    That’s a silly statement.

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  12. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]The Cubs are just slightly below average in runs scored and slightly above average in terms of linear weights and measures like wOBA. wRC (runs created based on linear weights) predicts the cubs should have scored 560 runs, but they have only scored 539 (as of yesterday). At least half of the differential could be attributed to bad baserunning, and the rest may just be bad luck.[/quote]I would guess almost all of it is.

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  13. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]He called the Obstructed View offices? I’ve been trying to connect with someone there for 3 months about my paychecks. I figure they’re just lost in the mail.[/quote]
    We’re looking into it.

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  14. binky

    [quote name=ACT]The Cubs are just slightly below average in runs scored and slightly above average in terms of linear weights and measures like wOBA. wRC (runs created based on linear weights) predicts the cubs should have scored 560 runs, but they have only scored 539 (as of yesterday). At least half of the differential could be attributed to bad baserunning, and the rest may just be bad luck.[/quote]I would almost venture to guess a good portion of that is because we lost Marlon Byrd for an extended period unexpectedly. That had to affect the team negatively. Also, I don’t know what Soriano’s projections were, but they had to be a little better than what he’s shown. He’s accumulated 0.9 WAR on fangraphs. That’s rough. So basically, they scored runs not too far below the expected clip. So they must have bled runs away at a must faster rate than anticipated, part of which is probably due to inadequate starting pitching and errors, hence they overall produced a record below projections. Makes sense overall.

    I guess that’s where the 162 comes in. Reed Johnson can hit .450 for 2 weeks, and it doesn’t necessarily make or break a season, even if it is fun to watch for those two weeks. There’s really no reason to be upset at any particular player this season. They really were overmatched. No one should have expected a win on paper or otherwise. It’s stupid silly to get down on Byrd. He’s not why the team sucks, at all.

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  15. Steve Swisher

    I went by the Obstructed View offices last week. Someone needs to tell you: You keep the bottles of Fiji water a few degrees too cool. But the gratis boxes of Vosges chocolates are a nice touch.

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  16. binky

    [quote name=mb21]Why is holding the ball at 3rd base “an extra beat and then firing to first” a bit cocky? Should he just come up firing even if the baserunner is just getting out of the box? Should he throw off one foot even though the runner is 78 feet away?

    That’s a silly statement.[/quote]he should have come up firing as fast as possible, made a perfect throw without looking, then stared blank faced back at the home plate to await the next play. By the way, everything I know about players I learned playing BASEBALL on NES.

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  17. ACT

    I guess I should clarify what I meant earlier when I mentioned the Cubs have scored slightly fewer runs than they “should” have scored. What I meant was that they’ve scored about 20 fewer runs than you would expect given their observed hitting numbers this year (as opposed to pre-season projections). The Cubs have done a little worse than average in terms of sequencing of events, but not by a great deal. Their run-scoring is close to what you would expect for a mediocre-hitting team with no speed, and you don’t need to invoke things like “failure to execute” and “clutch hitting” to explain their below-average production.

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  18. mb21

    [quote name=Steve Swisher]I went by the Obstructed View offices last week. Someone needs to tell you: You keep the bottles of Fiji water a few degrees too cool. But the gratis boxes of Vosges chocolates are a nice touch.[/quote]I can no longer legally go within 200 yards of the Obstructed View offices.

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  19. binky

    [quote name=ACT]I guess I should clarify what I meant earlier when I mentioned the Cubs have scored slightly fewer runs than they “should” have scored. What I meant was that they’ve scored about 20 fewer runs than you would expect given their observed hitting numbers this year (as opposed to pre-season projections). The Cubs have done a little worse than average in terms of sequencing of events, but not by a great deal. Their run-scoring is close to what you would expect for a mediocre-hitting team with no speed, and you don’t need to invoke things like “failure to execute” and “clutch hitting” to explain their below-average production.[/quote]Oh, all right. I can see that. They’re not good enough on several levels, collectively. What’s frustrating, too, is that Byrd is a good player to have on a contending team. He’d be a good piece if some of the other positions had really strong players too. Fans sometimes seem to think guys who do the most are the most to blame, but its the opposite. He’s a good, not great, player on a mediocre team. Surround him with better players, and you have a better team, of which he would be an important part.

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  20. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]I can no longer legally go within 200 yards of the Obstructed View offices.[/quote]
    Because you insist on eating dinners.

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  21. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Aisle424]Because you insist on eating dinners.[/quote]
    Expense that, take advantage of business tax breaks. Uncle Sam FTW.

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  22. alf

    Apparently my cousin (who is a waiter at a kinda swanky downtown restaurant) waited on Crane Kenney recently. The whole meal was comped because of who he was, so he only had to pay the tip. He left a $20 tip on a $300 meal.

    So it seems Crane Kenney’s role is to be a cheap jerk.

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  23. mb21

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Where’s the Breaking Bad fanshot?[/quote]http://obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/general/breaking-bad-problem-dog.html

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  24. mb21

    [quote name=GBTS]That is a thing of beauty.[/quote]Sappelt was around 2nd base when Ankiel picked up that ball. That’s crazy. As a runner, you go on that 100% of the time. Even on Ankiel you go 100% of the time. What a fucking throw.

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  25. GBTS

    [quote name=mb21]What a fucking throw.[/quote]I know. Ankiel’s outfield assists to attempts ratio after the sixth inning in August is 3rd best in baseball history, behind only Bernard Gilkey and Rich Amaral.

    So I disagree, it was a terrible send.

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  26. mb21

    [quote name=GBTS]I know. Ankiel’s outfield assists to attempts ratio after the sixth inning in August is 3rd best in baseball history, behind only Bernard Gilkey and Rich Amaral.

    So I disagree, it was a terrible send.[/quote]True, but the final 5 games of August, Ankiel ranks dead last.

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  27. GBTS

    [quote name=mb21]True, but the final 5 games of August, Ankiel ranks dead last.[/quote]Yeah but that’s only in games against divisional opponents. Dumb ass.

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  28. binky

    [quote name=GBTS]Yeah but that’s only in games against divisional opponents. Dumb ass.[/quote]You forgot to factor in the moon. On half-moon nights his percentage bumps 20% in August for three of the last 10 years.

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  29. mb21

    [quote name=GBTS]Yeah but that’s only in games against divisional opponents. Dumb ass.[/quote]Incorrect. In the final 5 games of August on balls that bounce away from the wall, nobody is worse than Ankiel.

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  30. GBTS

    [quote name=mb21]Incorrect. In the final 5 games of August on balls that bounce away from the wall, nobody is worse than Ankiel.[/quote]Okay, now you’re starting to get into sample size issues.

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  31. Mish

    Bruce Miles via Julie:

    Barney has a .321 on-base percentage and ranks sixth worst among qualifiers in walk percentage (3.8).

    Castro has an OBP of .333 and is eighth worst in walk percentage (4.0).

    Realistically, Campana is a fifth-outfielder/pinch-runner type. His OBP is .305, and if he hits the ball in the air, he is almost always out.

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  32. mb21

    [quote name=Mish]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/29/for-the-love-of-the-game-eh-not-so-much/[/quote]I wish all the players were as honest as that.

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  33. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mish]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/29/for-the-love-of-the-game-eh-not-so-much/[/quote]
    I think the incentive of making it big outweighs whatever love for the game he may have. Well put.

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  34. Mercurial Outfielder

    Ari Kaplan called and wanted me to convey his congratulations for the treasure trove of statistical analysis in this thread.

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  35. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder][/quote]
    I think he’s kind of an overrated reliever (he’s got Marmolesque issues this season) but he does amuse me.

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  36. melissa

    [quote name=josh] He’s a good, not great, player on a mediocre team. Surround him with better players, and you have a better team, of which he would be an important part.[/quote]
    Would Byrd be an “important part” of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies? I don’t think so. His talent isn’t such that he’s going to be crucial to any team. His talent nor value won’t increase because he’s on a better team. I don’t remember hearing of any contending teams being interested in him at the trade deadline. I doubt Byrd would be the missing piece of the puzzle that would be the difference between getting in the playoffs and not.

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  37. mb21

    I can’t speak for Josh, but we’re talking about a guy who has been worth 6.9 fWAR (4.7 rWAR) over his nearly 2 years on the club. At $4.5 million per win, that’s $31.1 million in fWAR value or $21.2 million in rWAR value. His contract is 3 years and $15 million. In less than 2 years, which included a very serious injury, he’s been worth as much as double the entire value of the contract.

    I don’t care what anybody says about Marlon Byrd or whether or not they think he’s this or that, but the one thing nobody can say is that he’s not a valuable player. Considering that contract, he’s a very valuable asset.

    As for the difference between getting to the playoffs and not, it obviously depends on who Byrd would be replacing. If you need 3 wins and you have a replacement level CF, then Byrd is the difference. And he allows that team to spend money elsewhere because he’s more valuable than his contract. Since 2010, Byrd ranks 7th in fWAR amongh CF. He ranks higher than Colby Rasmus, BJ Upton and Matt Kemp.

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  38. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]I can’t speak for Josh, but we’re talking about a guy who has been worth 6.9 fWAR (4.7 rWAR) over his nearly 2 years on the club. At $4.5 million per win, that’s $31.1 million in fWAR value or $21.2 million in rWAR value. His contract is 3 years and $15 million. In less than 2 years, which included a very serious injury, he’s been worth as much as double the entire value of the contract.[/quote]
    How much per R+RBI?

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  39. Aisle424

    I don’t care what anybody says about Marlon Byrd or whether or not they think he’s this or that, but the one thing nobody can say is that he’s not The Wyrd.

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  40. Snyds01

    [quote name=Aisle424]Need one more person to enjoy the Recent OV Fantasty Football League. Let me know if you want in.[/quote]
    I would join. I sent you an email a bit back. Let me know if you still have a spot open.

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  41. Rodrigo Ramirez

    Since 2010, Byrd ranks 7th in fWAR amongh CF. He ranks higher than Colby Rasmus, BJ Upton and Matt Kemp.

    I’m not saying this is not true, but I have to wonder how Marlon Byrd is better than Kemp and/or Upton. Any one of us would take either one unanimously over Byrd.

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  42. mb21

    Rasmus is rates as low as he is because of UZR. Not sure what TZ thinks, but yeah, I’d take Rasmus over Byrd. Not sure whether or not I’d take Upton. He may be one of the most overrated players in baseball these days. He’s a league average player and nothing more. I’d take kemp over Byrd of course, but that’s going forward. I’m talking about what has already happened. Upton isn’t as good as Byrd. The other two have been as good, but will be better in the future.

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  43. Aisle424

    [quote name=Snyds01]I would join. I sent you an email a bit back. Let me know if you still have a spot open.[/quote]
    I’m sorry, I didn’t see an e-mail from you. Can you shoot me another one at tmcginnis2002 (at) hotmail (dot) com?

    Then I can send the invite and we’ll have a full 12 teams.

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  44. Aisle424

    [quote name=Aisle424]I’m sorry, I didn’t see an e-mail from you. Can you shoot me another one at tmcginnis2002 (at) hotmail (dot) com?

    Then I can send the invite and we’ll have a full 12 teams.[/quote]
    Nevermind. I’ll just send an e-mail invite to the e-mail you registered for this site with.

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  45. Berselius

    [quote name=Mish]I’m probably going to be autodrafting today, FYI.[/quote]
    Same here, I’ll be busy shaking my fist at DC traffic

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  46. Berselius

    [quote name=Aisle424]I may be the only one who can’t blame a computer for his shitty team.[/quote]
    Spreadsheets play the game.

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  47. Berselius

    [quote name=Aisle424]My spreadsheet is going to kick your spreadsheet’s ass. It has more heart.[/quote]
    Mine has too many intangibles to worry about having its ass kicked. Nothing can make contact with it.

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  48. Rodrigo Ramirez

    [quote name=mb21]Rasmus is rates as low as he is because of UZR. Not sure what TZ thinks, but yeah, I’d take Rasmus over Byrd. Not sure whether or not I’d take Upton. He may be one of the most overrated players in baseball these days. He’s a league average player and nothing more. I’d take kemp over Byrd of course, but that’s going forward. I’m talking about what has already happened. Upton isn’t as good as Byrd. The other two have been as good, but will be better in the future.[/quote]
    Upton is already at 6 WAR this year. Am I missing something?

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  49. Snyds01

    [quote name=Aisle424]I’m sorry, I didn’t see an e-mail from you. Can you shoot me another one at tmcginnis2002 (at) hotmail (dot) com?

    Then I can send the invite and we’ll have a full 12 teams.[/quote]

    It is actually my fault, i see now that i didnt have 2002 in the email before. Email now sent

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  50. binky

    [quote name=mb21]I can’t speak for Josh, but we’re talking about a guy who has been worth 6.9 fWAR (4.7 rWAR) over his nearly 2 years on the club. At $4.5 million per win, that’s $31.1 million in fWAR value or $21.2 million in rWAR value. His contract is 3 years and $15 million. In less than 2 years, which included a very serious injury, he’s been worth as much as double the entire value of the contract.

    I don’t care what anybody says about Marlon Byrd or whether or not they think he’s this or that, but the one thing nobody can say is that he’s not a valuable player. Considering that contract, he’s a very valuable asset.

    As for the difference between getting to the playoffs and not, it obviously depends on who Byrd would be replacing. If you need 3 wins and you have a replacement level CF, then Byrd is the difference. And he allows that team to spend money elsewhere because he’s more valuable than his contract. Since 2010, Byrd ranks 7th in fWAR amongh CF. He ranks higher than Colby Rasmus, BJ Upton and Matt Kemp.[/quote]That’s pretty much what I was getting at.

    Let’s say you trade Marlon Byrd and a few prospects for Matt Kemp and do nothing else. Does the Cubs team magically contend next season? Not even close. But let’s say you found a way to upgrade the infield and get some really good players at the corners. Byrd may no longer be the star of the team, but he’s now an essential piece because of the value to cost ratio. The 2008 team was built on guys who weren’t individually superstars (maybe Soriano) but collectively created a good team.

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  51. binky

    Undervaluing players because they aren’t superstars is exactly the attitude that allowed Beane to be so successful in Oakland for so long.

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  52. mb21

    [quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]I’m a dumbass. Sorry, folks.[/quote]No biggie. I’d gladly take the Upton you’re talking about over any player on the Cubs. I’d trade Castro and Brett Jackson for Justin Upton without thinking twice.

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  53. mb21

    [quote name=mb21]No biggie. I’d gladly take the Upton you’re talking about over any player on the Cubs. I’d trade Castro and Brett Jackson for Justin Upton without thinking twice.[/quote]That’s if the Cubs are serious about contending right away. If it’s a couple years then maybe not.

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  54. mb21

    [quote name=josh]That’s pretty much what I was getting at.

    Let’s say you trade Marlon Byrd and a few prospects for Matt Kemp and do nothing else. Does the Cubs team magically contend next season? Not even close. But let’s say you found a way to upgrade the infield and get some really good players at the corners. Byrd may no longer be the star of the team, but he’s now an essential piece because of the value to cost ratio. The 2008 team was built on guys who weren’t individually superstars (maybe Soriano) but collectively created a good team.[/quote]
    Sometimes I think that is something people forget. The 2008 Cubs didn’t have a superstar. They just had very good players up and down the lineup and throughout the rotation. Byrd is a good ballplayer and he has a lot of value in part because he’s paid so little.

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  55. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]Sometimes I think that is something people forget. The 2008 Cubs didn’t have a superstar. They just had Mark Derosa.[/quote]
    Repent, sinner.

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  56. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]Sometimes I think that is something people forget. The 2008 Cubs didn’t have a superstar. They just had very good players up and down the lineup and throughout the rotation. Byrd is a good ballplayer and he has a lot of value in part because he’s paid so little.[/quote]
    This is the part that people don’t understand about Billy Beane and “Moneyball.” The guy exploited market inefficiencies to get guys who were extremely valuable to the performance of a team, but who didn’t necessarily thrive on the “big money” stats like HRs and RBIs. So he got a lot of very decent players for very cheap and filled in with a farm system that provided some stellar pitching and a couple of all-star level guys.

    The league read the book and most teams now evaluate similarly. So now those types of players are paid closer to what their true value is and pushing the overall price of players up and putting Oakland right back at a competitive disadvantage.

    How he even keeps his head above water (and the Rays too) is a stunning endorsement of how advanced analytics and understanding the value to cost of players can help even the playing field. The problem for those teams is that the big money teams can do that too, probably do it better because they can afford larger staff, and then commit more money to accumulating the most talent that money can buy.

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  57. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Aisle424]It is also why it pisses me off to no end that the Cubs are terrible at it.[/quote]Because they don’t do it. Like, at all.

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  58. mb21

    How he even keeps his head above water (and the Rays too) is a stunning endorsement of how advanced analytics and understanding the value to cost of players can help even the playing field. The problem for those teams is that the big money teams can do that too, probably do it better because they can afford larger staff, and then commit more money to accumulating the most talent that money can buy.

    It’s funny you bring that up because I had just written a comment on Cubs Stats about that and didn’t end up publishing it because I dind’t want to burst Brad’s bubble about the Rays. Whatever the Rays are doing will eventually be done as well or better by teams with money. The same thing happened with Oakland and the reason Boston can still be so good every year is because they have money. As long as the Rays refuse to spend they’ll see very little time in the playoffs and more bad seasons than good ones. 10 years ago Beane was unquestionably the best GM in baseball. 5 years ago it was Theo. Now it’s Friedman. In 3 or 4 years it will amost certainly be someone else.

    In my opinion, the Rays missed their chance. I doubt they as legitimate a chance to win the World Series as they had in 2008 and 2010 for a long time.

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  59. mb21

    It’s also why I think if given the chance to go to a large market team, Friedman will leave Tampa Bay. If he’s as smart as people say he is, he surely sees that the Rays will fall short of the playoffs for some time unless there’s some kind of realignment. Perhaps that’s OK with him. We don’t know.

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  60. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]ditto[/quote]Yeah, those rubber bumps do chafe a bit until you get a callous working.

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  61. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Man, the D-Backs might actually win their division.The NL West is so unpredictable.[/quote]There are basically 3 good teams in the National League and then some who are average and a bunch of bad teams. It’s pretty bad.

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  62. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=ACT]Man, the D-Backs might actually win their division.The NL West is so shitteh.[/quote]
    .

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  63. mb21

    Looking at the FSR, Castro is really good at most of the things, but his release/footwork and throwing accuracy are horrible. If he could improve one of those he could stick at SS.

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  64. ACT

    Giants have the fewest runs scored in the majors and by far the fewest in the league. I know part of it is the park they play in (not to mention the games in Petco and Dodger Stadium), but that’s pretty amazing for a team that’s supposed to be the best in their division.

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  65. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]Looking at the FSR, Castro is really good at most of the things, but his release/footwork and throwing accuracy are horrible. If he could improve one of those he could stick at SS.[/quote]Seems to me those two things are complimentary. When the footwork improves, so will the throws.

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  66. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=ACT]Giants have the fewest runs scored in the majors and by far the fewest in the league. I know part of it is the park they play in (not to mention the games in Petco and Dodger Stadium), but that’s pretty amazing for a team that’s supposed to be the best in their division.[/quote]That offense is like an impotent serial masturbater.

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  67. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=ACT]If Campana could only improve everything except his running speed, he could stick in CF.[/quote]Let’s See What Happens.

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  68. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Seems to me those two things are complimentary. If the footwork improves, so will the throws.[/quote]I agree with the fixed version. (dying laughing)

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  69. uncle dave

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That offense is like an impotent serial masturbater.[/quote]Apt simile, given that the average age of their position players is about 58.

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  70. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=uncle dave]Apt simile, given that the average age of their position players is about 58.[/quote]So you’re saying all the Giants need is Cialis?

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  71. uncle dave

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]So you’re saying all the Giants need is Cialis?[/quote]If you want them to masturbate, yes. Hitting is another story (probably).

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  72. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]So you’re saying all the Giants need is Cialis?[/quote]Ari Kaplan’s notecard shows that of the 19 players taking cialis that he looked at, they all hit well in June.

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  73. mb21

    Beane is signed through 2014 and even has an ownership stake in the A’s. But managing partner Lew Wolff told the Chronicle he wouldn’t stand in Beane’s way if he wants to pursue another job. That could include the Yankees if Cashman goes to Chicago, or the Dodgers if Colletti moves on.

    “I would never inhibit anybody from bettering themselves because of a contract,” Wolff told the Chronicle.

    Still the “little” issue of Beane’s part ownership of the A’s.

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  74. mb21

    [quote name=dylanj]anybody see that Rush Limbaugh called out Shawn Goldman by name on his radio show today?[/quote]http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_082911/content/01125109.guest.html

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  75. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_082911/content/01125109.guest.html[/quote]
    lulz…that’s awesome.

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  76. GW

    [quote name=mb21]http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_082911/content/01125109.guest.html[/quote]
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  77. JMan

    [quote name=mb21]It’s also why I think if given the chance to go to a large market team, Friedman will leave Tampa Bay. If he’s as smart as people say he is, he surely sees that the Rays will fall short of the playoffs for some time unless there’s some kind of realignment. Perhaps that’s OK with him. We don’t know.[/quote]If MLB adds another WC team then he likely has a better chance of getting his team in the playoffs each year. Plus the team has major restrictions on spending due to the ballpark situation. It’s dreadful and it’s likely going to take them moving to another market before it gets better.

    Either way I’ve also read that Hunsicker is a major influence to Friedman. He’s in my Top 4, with Hahn, Friedman and Ng, but it doesn’t seem like he’s ever mentioned as a serious candidate. Perhaps he doesn’t have the desire to be a GM anymore and if so that’s really too bad.

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  78. Chris Dickerson

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I-Cubs just had themselves a very good inning. And it’s still going.[/quote]
    LaHair tied the all-time I-Cubs HR record formerly held by Joe Hicks tonight. From my youth, I recall seeing Joe Hicks play in person (not that he ever played in a single televised game). He saved face in Japan for part of a season and then came back to Iowa. Because I was one of those kids screaming for autographs, I recall Hicks used to sign his autograph in Japanese.

    /Cool Story Bro’d

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  79. binky

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Seems to me those two things are complimentary. When the footwork improves, so will the throws.[/quote]Yep. In a rare bout of actual analysis, I saw a TV announcer actually demonstrate an example of how Castro failing to get his weight on the proper foot resulted in a weak, inaccurate throw.

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  80. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Thought Soto’s was way out, too.[/quote]
    That one corner in right center is what you want to aim for if you want the ball to rattle around for a triple.

    The insets along the right field wall make for some crazy caroms too…that’s how Ichiro got his inside-the-park homer during the ASG a few years back.

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  81. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Rice Cube]That one corner in right center is what you want to aim for if you want the ball to rattle around for a triple.

    The insets along the right field wall make for some crazy caroms too…that’s how Ichiro got his inside-the-park homer during the ASG a few years back.[/quote]

    Panda just hit it to the wrong part of the ball park. If you’re aiming for that 421 alley, better make sure it’s a liner or else it’s just a deep flyout.

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  82. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Panda just hit it to the wrong part of the ball park. If you’re aiming for that 421 alley, better make sure it’s a liner or else it’s just a deep flyout.[/quote]Sori can hit it out.

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  83. Berselius

    [quote name=dylanj]anybody see that Rush Limbaugh called out Shawn Goldman by name on his radio show today?[/quote]
    (dying laughing), I heard it from the man himself today over some beers. (not Limbaugh)

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  84. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), I heard it from the man himself today over some beers. (not Limbaugh)[/quote]
    Did he happen to call in and have a shouting match with Limbaugh?

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  85. Aisle424

    [quote name=Berselius]Who woulda thunk that the decaying remains of Randy Wells would outduel Timmay[/quote]
    That was actually the kid from Dazed and Confused pitching tonight.

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  86. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Aisle424]That was actually the kid from Dazed and Confused pitching tonight.[/quote]
    They’re beating his ass with paddles in the parking lot right now.

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  87. binky

    [quote name=Aisle424]That was actually the kid from Dazed and Confused pitching tonight.[/quote]In my world, Tim would always have been called Wiley Wiggins.

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  88. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]This win was so bizarro.[/quote]What’s so bizarre about hitting 3 home runs against Lincecum at AT&T Park?

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  89. ACT

    Randy Wells is the espn.com top performer of the day. Of course, his stats are misleading since he pitched against the Giants.

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  90. binky

    I never realized how often mlb.com says a player was a “triple shy of the cycle” until I started reading this blog. It’s like a magic eye, you can’t un-see it once you see it.

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  91. binky

    I love that they walked Pena three times, and the one time they pitch to him he hit a homerun. Should have read the spreadsheet better, I guess.

    Lincecum has had all right stats this year, but his walks are slightly up and strikeouts slightly down. But overall he seems to be on the downward slope over the last three years. Hard to believe that a guy who was that good could be losing his effectiveness already.

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  92. Dr. Aneus Taint

    Shawn’s new username should be:

    Crackpot leftist scientist with influence in NASA coming in the form of an actual NASA employee producing actual NASA documents warning that if we don’t adopt lunatic global warming policies of Algore’s, space aliens will invade us to wipe us out, to prevent us from destroying our climate!

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  93. mb22

    Ryno, wondering what you’re hearing about aTm. I got an email a few minutes ago saying: sounds like today or tomorrow, they’re gone. What’s up?

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  94. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb22]Ryno, wondering what you’re hearing about aTm. I got an email a few minutes ago saying: sounds like today or tomorrow, they’re gone. What’s up?[/quote]
    That’s what I heard as well. I heard a formal announcement of their withdrawal from the Big 12-2 would come today.

    At this point, I’m thinking Texas waits for the conference to disband before making a move. I think that’s short-sighted, but it seems to be their MO in all this. If OU wants to go to the SEC, I think Texas goes independent or tries to jump to the Big 10. If OU wants to go to the Pac 12, I think Texas, Tech and another school go that route.

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  95. Berselius

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]That’s what I heard as well. I heard a formal announcement of their withdrawal from the Big 12-2 would come today.

    At this point, I’m thinking Texas waits for the conference to disband before making a move. I think that’s short-sighted, but it seems to be their MO in all this. If OU wants to go to the SEC, I think Texas goes independent or tries to jump to the Big 10. If OU wants to go to the Pac 12, I think Texas, Tech and another school go that route.[/quote]
    Baylor teams up with Iowa State to apply to the Iowa Communitiy college league (dying laughing)

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  96. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Berselius]According to NYT they’ve notified the B12 that they’re leaving[/quote]
    Yep. The formal announcement should come soon.

    [quote name=Berselius]Baylor teams up with Iowa State to apply to the Iowa Communitiy college league (dying laughing)[/quote]
    Baylor is a tricky one. Texas legislature will want Texas to take Baylor with them, but the Pac 12 won’t allow them in.

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  97. mb21

    Will any conference allow Baylor in? The Big Ten sure as hell wouldn’t. If the Pac 12 won’t, it’s hard to believe the SEC would so that leaves Baylor to team up with Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State. (dying laughing)

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  98. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]Will any conference allow Baylor in? The Big Ten sure as hell wouldn’t. If the Pac 12 won’t, it’s hard to believe the SEC would so that leaves Baylor to team up with Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    Baylor should team up with SMU and check out the smaller conferences.

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  99. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]What happens to Kansas and Kansas State? Or MIssouri?[/quote]
    Mizzou has been rumored to the SEC, but I doubt it. They and Kansas seem like a decent fit for the Big 10, but that also seems unlikely.

    Kansas State can be swallowed into the fucking earth for all I care.

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  100. ACT

    [quote name=josh]
    Lincecum has had all right stats this year, but his walks are slightly up and strikeouts slightly down. But overall he seems to be on the downward slope over the last three years. Hard to believe that a guy who was that good could be losing his effectiveness already.[/quote]http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/no_matter_how_i_slice_or_dice_it_pitchers_get_worse_every_year/

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  101. Berselius

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Mizzou has been rumored to the SEC, but I doubt it. They and Kansas seem like a decent fit for the Big 10, but that also seems unlikely.

    Kansas State can be swallowed into the fucking earth for all I care.[/quote]
    Of all the spare B12 schools Kansas has the easiest decision to make. I have little doubt that they’ll go to the Big East Basketball Superconference.

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  102. Work sucks

    I’m assuming Texas A will join SEC west, does that mean that the other team that is added will necessarily go to SEC East? That would imply someone more like VT or WVU right? Although I guess that Alabama or Aub or someone could just join SEC east if both new teams were more ‘western”

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  103. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Work sucks]I’m assuming Texas A will join SEC west, does that mean that the other team that is added will necessarily go to SEC East? That would imply someone more like VT or WVU right? Although I guess that Alabama or Aub or someone could just join SEC east if both new teams were more ‘western”[/quote]
    I would think Bama and Auburn would stay in the same division like Texas and OU are. That would prevent a rivalry rematch in a CCG.

    VaTech makes a lot of sense for the SEC.

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  104. Dr. Aneus Taint

    RT @billyliucci: RT @GabeDeArmond: “If A&M does send letter, we are poised to move aggressively to assure a strong Big 12.”Mizzou chan B Deaton

    i.e. they’re going to beg BYU to join.

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  105. mb21

    Only way one of those two ends up in the Big Ten is if Texas or Notre Dame joins and they need one more to get to 14. Even then, my guess is that they look at Syracuse, Rutgers or Pittsburgh before that. Those universities add nothing to the Big Ten. The BTN is already aired in this part of the country so adding a university like Kansas doesn’t even gain subscribers. The subscribing fee would be a bit higher, but that’s it.

    In order for a university to join the Big Ten, it’s actually quite simple. They need to create at least $22 million in additional profit for the conference. That’s based on what each university got last year in tv revenues and it will continue to go up, especially after they’re current contracts end in a few years. With increased profits of the BTN and greater ownership of it by the conference, the BTN payout to each conference is soon going to be more than $10 million per year per school. Maybe even this year.

    Take Iowa State as an example. They would add literally nothing to the conference. Iowa already gives them the entire state. Throughout this whole realignment process, there have been 3 programs the Big Ten have wanted to add: Nebraska, Texas and Notre Dame. All of them create additional profit for each university. The rumors of Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pittsburgh have been in a situation in which they need to add one additional team. Syracuse or Rutgers would make the most sense.

    If the Big Ten gets Notre Dame or Texas, the BTN goes national and the profits double or triple. Each university got something like $7.5 million last year from the BTN. If one of those two join, they’d get at least $15 million from the BTN alone. In a few years when they negotiate new contracts the universities would be getting close to $40 million or more per year in tv revenue alone. That’s if one of ND or Texas joins at which point the BTN would go national.

    Kansas, Missouri, Kansas State and Iowa State add nothing at all to the conference. You couldn’t get the current members to accept one of them if you held them at gunpoint. It just means less money for each university and there’s no way they’d agree to that.

    Texas is the wild card in all of this. Independent may be a short-term answer, but in the long-term they’ll have to join either the P12 or B10. Most have assume all along that ND would eventually join the B10 and as the older people have left their positions of power, the strong desire for ND to remain independent has lessened.

    I don’t know where Texas ends up, but I do know that the Big Ten is going to do just about everything they can to convince them to join. If Texas joins, Notre Dame will because they could make way more than they currently are.

    If the B10 can’t get Texas or Notre Dame, they stay at 12.

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  106. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Of all the spare B12 schools Kansas has the easiest decision to make. I have little doubt that they’ll go to the Big East Basketball Superconference.[/quote]Rumors last year were that they were going to join some mid-major out west.

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  107. mb21

    [quote name=Work sucks]I’m assuming Texas A will join SEC west, does that mean that the other team that is added will necessarily go to SEC East? That would imply someone more like VT or WVU right? Although I guess that Alabama or Aub or someone could just join SEC east if both new teams were more ‘western”[/quote]Florida State has supposedly wanted to join the SEC for a long time. Could be them or VT or WVU as you say.

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  108. mb21

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]I would think Bama and Auburn would stay in the same division like Texas and OU are. That would prevent a rivalry rematch in a CCG.

    VaTech makes a lot of sense for the SEC.[/quote]The question is how much more can the conference get in CCG by having the potential for those two teams to play again? The B10 got a little extra per year for the chance to see OSU/UM in the CCG.

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  109. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]I don’t know where Texas ends up, but I do know that the Big Ten is going to do just about everything they can to convince them to join. If Texas joins, Notre Dame will because they could make way more than they currently are.

    If the B10 can’t get Texas or Notre Dame, they stay at 12.[/quote]
    Texas and ND have talked quite a bit in the last year. ‘twouldn’t surprise me a bit to see them join together. In a vaccuum, Texas to the Big 10 makes a ton of sense.

    However, the Texas Leg. is going to push for them to take Tech and Baylor wherever they go. Texas’ best chance to appease the Leg. is to take Tech, OU and OkSU to the Pac 12.

    If Texas wants to join the Big 10, their best bet is to let the conference crumble around them. Shut the lights off after everyone leaves.

    Therefore, Texas’ intentions can probably be seen by how aggressively they SEEM to move this time around.

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  110. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Dr. Taint]It would take more than a little extra to cheapen that game, imo.[/quote]
    That sounds harsh, but it’s what would happen. The RRS happens once per year and it’s a huge moneymaker for Dallas. A LOT of parties would work hard to oppose something like that. I know we’re talking about Auburn/Bama (which is different), but I’d think the Iron Bowl would be similar.

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  111. Work sucks

    I would think that no matter what, if someone moves divisions in the SEC, a rivalry of sorts will be moved. They’d still play every year, and an Iron Bowl CCG would get huge viewership, altho AUB-ALA is arguably the biggest rivalry in SEC. I do wish VT would join SEC. That would be the end of them being over-rated into the top 10 every year, and the ACC could stop trying to be a football conference and go back to being an awesome b-ball conference.

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  112. mb21

    Personally, I believe if it’s a great matchup to have once, then it’s even better to have the potential to play twice. That’s just me. The Big 12 is a little different than the Big Ten. In the B12 Texas and OU would probably play in the CCG 6 or 8 times out of 10 years. In the B10, OSU and UM are probably going to meet that extra time maybe a couple of times per 10 years. I know their fan bases complained when they moved that game up and separated divisions, but the B10 agreed that competitive balance was the primary goal. As such, you had to separate the 4 traditionally elite programs (OSU/UM/PSU/NE) and then also separate Iowa and UW who make up the next tier. Geography was the second most important factor and you can’t have PSU/NE in the same division since they represeent the eastern and western most programs in the conference. Rivalries was the 3rd most important and they managed to maintain almost all of them. Iowa lost UW on an annual basis, but assuming they go to 9 conference games soon that rivarly will pick up.

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  113. mb21

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Then again, it might be more similar to Michigan/OSU. Who knows?[/quote]I have no idea. I do know that in the Big Ten the only people against splitting UM and OSU were their fans. Everyone else was in favor of it because you absolutely could not have a division with OSU, UM and PSU in it. Although NE, Iowa and Wisconsin may actually be as good as that trio right now, long-term they wouldn’t be. Even the university presidents and athletic directors came out in support of being in different conferences early on. It was really only the fans that disliked the idea.

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  114. mb21

    [quote name=Work sucks]Big 10 is going to be fun to watch this year. I’m interested to see how Russell Wilson does with Wisc.[/quote]Behind that offensive line he could have a ridiculously good season. I think Dan Persa is the best QB in the conference entering the season, but I could see Wilson up there at the top when it ends. I could also see Vandenberg of Iowa up there if Keenan Davis reaches his potential. There’s obviously always the chance that Robinson ends up there as well. The problem with him and maybe even Wilson is that running the ball means you’re going to take more hits and have a better chance of getting injured.

    It’s kind of weird. For the first time in at least a decade people are overlooking OSU. I think UW is the best in the division, but OSU is still pretty damn good.

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  115. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]Personally, I believe if it’s a great matchup to have once, then it’s even better to have the potential to play twice. That’s just me. The Big 12 is a little different than the Big Ten. In the B12 Texas and OU would probably play in the CCG 6 or 8 times out of 10 years. In the B10, OSU and UM are probably going to meet that extra time maybe a couple of times per 10 years. I know their fan bases complained when they moved that game up and separated divisions, but the B10 agreed that competitive balance was the primary goal. As such, you had to separate the 4 traditionally elite programs (OSU/UM/PSU/NE) and then also separate Iowa and UW who make up the next tier. Geography was the second most important factor and you can’t have PSU/NE in the same division since they represeent the eastern and western most programs in the conference. Rivalries was the 3rd most important and they managed to maintain almost all of them. Iowa lost UW on an annual basis, but assuming they go to 9 conference games soon that rivarly will pick up.[/quote]
    Exactly. Everyone would love to see Texas/OU play twice per year except Texas and OU. And it would happen too often.

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  116. mb21

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Exactly. Everyone would love to see Texas/OU play twice per year except Texas and OU. And it would happen too often.[/quote]I agree it’s not feasible to do while both remain in the Big 12. If they were to join the SEC or The Big Ten then I think it is. I just don’t see the Big Ten having interest in Oklahoma. I heard a rumor that the OU did check to see a couple weeks ago if the B10 was interested in adding them. Not sure how accurate the rumor is, but I heard it from someone I trust.

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  117. Mercurial Outfielder

    Ryno, I’m pretty hurt that you didn’t invite me to your party, seeing as dj and MB are obviously there:

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  118. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=mb21]I agree it’s not feasible to do while both remain in the Big 12. If they were to join the SEC or The Big Ten then I think it is. I just don’t see the Big Ten having interest in Oklahoma. I heard a rumor that the OU did check to see a couple weeks ago if the B10 was interested in adding them. Not sure how accurate the rumor is, but I heard it from someone I trust.[/quote]
    OU would bring a lot to the athletics aspect of any conference. The academic side, not so much.

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  119. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Ryno, I’m pretty hurt that you didn’t invite me to your party, seeing as dj and MB are obviously there:
    [/quote]
    I still want to know why dj brought the kid.

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  120. GBTS

    I just want to point out that Shawn has been derided on air by Rush Limbaugh, and banned at BCB by Alvin Yellon.

    He is a Sarah Palin tweet and al-Qaeda jihad away from the cycle.

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  121. binky

    [quote name=ACT]http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/no_matter_how_i_slice_or_dice_it_pitchers_get_worse_every_year/[/quote]Ryan Dempster is the only pitcher I can think of who at least peaked later in his career. In that way he could be said to have gotten better. As far as pitchers sustaining a plateau, somebody like Gregg Maddux comes to mind. I can’t think of a single example of a power pitcher who stayed effective for very long, but some of the finesse guys had really long bouts of effectiveness. Maddux sustained a >7 WAR stretch for 7 seasons, and >5 WAR longer than that.

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  122. GBTS

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]That just screams, “Kick my ass!”[/quote]Someone just told him they can’t argue with him today.

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  123. mb21

    [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]OU would bring a lot to the athletics aspect of any conference. The academic side, not so much.[/quote]That’s what I’ve always thought they were destined for the SEC.

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  124. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=dylanj]my favorite thing of the day[/quote]Get that shit out to the Desipio/HJE crew (dying laughing) Let’s meme this shit.

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  125. dylanj

    i love the guy on Al’s left. If thats not a typical Chicago looking motherfucker i dont know what is. Maybe Ryno can Photoshop KOW for the woman on the right and Wanda the tanned skank on the bottom.

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  126. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=dylanj]i love the guy on Al’s left. If thats not a typical Chicago looking motherfucker i dont know what is. Maybe Ryno can Photoshop KOW for the woman on the right and Wanda the tanned skank on the bottom.[/quote]That whole crew is a prescription drug company’s dream.

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  127. GBTS

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That whole crew is a prescription drug company’s dream.[/quote](dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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