The Nats lost 102 and 103 games in 2008 and 2009, respectively, and improved to 69-93 in 2010. Last year they finished the year with a 80-81 record, which was a marked improvement. Still, it's tough to read too much into a team whose leader in rWAR was a relief pitcher (Tyler Clippard). There was no doubt about it this year though. The Nationals led the majors in wins and run differential, and were just six runs behind the Reds in runs allowed. Since May 22, they held the lead in a division that was widely regarded as the best in the NL going into the year.
The Cardinals, despite losing Albert Pujols to the Angels and the good Chris Carpenter to being Chris Carpenter, were still slightly favored to win the division over the upstart Reds. They got off to a hot start, leading the division for the first month or so but relinquished the lead to the Reds in late May, and were never able to catch them again. They had the best run differential in the division for most of the year, and finished at +117 which was second best in the NL. They were only 2.5 games back of the Reds in July, and I kept expecting their record to regress upwards based on that number but it never really happened. I guess 88 wins is nothing to sneeze at though.
Projected Starting lineups
| Cardinals | Nationals |
| CF Jon Jay | RF Jayson Werth |
| RF Carlos Beltran | CF Bryce Harper |
| LF Matt Holliday | 3B Ryan Zimmerman |
| 1B Allen Craig | 1B Adam LaRoche |
| C Yadier Molina | LF Mike Morse |
| 3B David Freese | SS Ian Desmond |
| 2B Daniel Descalso | 2B Danny Espinosa |
| SS Pete Kozma | C Kurt Suzuki |
Rotations
Cardinals: Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse
Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson, Ross Detweiler
Team Statistics (NL ranks)
| Cardinals | Nationals | |
| wRC+ | 107 (1st) | 102 (3rd) |
| BSR | -1.2 (9th) | -18.3 (16th) |
| UZR | -20.4 (12th) | 8.7 (6th) |
| DRS | +13 (5th) | -13 (10th) |
| SP FIP- | 91 (2nd) | 89 (1st) |
| RP FIP- | 103 (14th) | 96 (5th) |
In case you were wondering, Mike Morse (-5.3) and Adam LaRoche (-3.4) were the biggest baserunning offenders for the Nationals, but it takes a team to put up a total that terrible.
Game Schedule
Game 1 (@StL): Sunday, 2:07 CT
Game 2 (@StL): Monday, 3:07 CT
Game 3 (@WSN): Wednesday, TBA
Game 4 (@WSN): Thursday, TBA
Game 5 (@WSN): Friday, TBA
Storylines you may or may not care about
The Nationals finally let Teddy Roosevelt win their Presidents Race. If they get swept, expect to hear all sorts of black cat/goat/Babe Ruth level team jinexes.
You might not have heard, but Stephen Strasburg was shut down and is missing the playoffs. That should get more of the blame than Teddy if they lose. I still can't believe how badly the Nats handled that innings limit.
Awkward photo fan favorite Lance Berkman is done for the year, and probably his career, due to a knee injury suffered early this year. Sorry, MO.
I can't wait to see what Genius Moves Cards manager Mike Matheny will pull out this postseason. He learned a lot from TLR, so I'm expecting at least three innings to have three or more pitching changes during this series.
Prediction
It's hard not to pick the Nationals here, but as we know anything can happen in a short series. *Gives finger to Diamondbacks, Dodgers*
Comments
Ha haaaaaaaaaaa…
/sobs uncontrollably
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Doug Fister is a strike-throwing machine.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This whole opening on the road thing is weird. They should play ALL the games at whatever team has the better record. The regular season should mean more.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
As far as I can tell this format is for this season only because they approved the extra wild card so late and couldn’t figure out some other way to cram the play-ins and the other playoffs in so the World Series doesn’t spill too far into November.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, it was to reduce the travel days, which I’m all for.
BerseliusQuote Reply
A’s! Woot.
/Moneyball
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yes, berselius, I do think that’s a pretty odd choice for your favorite book ever.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
i don’t know why, it’s a perfectly cromulent book.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Uhh, the Cubs lost those series because Soriano choked and Z failed to throw a no-hitter in both. Everyone knows this.
GBTSQuote Reply
The A’s game isn’t coming on TBS or whatever. Annoying.
joshQuote Reply
Coco uh-oh
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Did he commit the error?
joshQuote Reply
Ugh. Moneyball fail.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
He was playing in the Upper Peninsula because Cabrera was up and had a really long sprint to catch his shallow popup. He slightly overran it and did an emergency basket catch against his belt buckle, bobbled it, caught it again, then dropped it again.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
It was interesting to see Moneyball call for the sac bunt in the previous inning.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Moneyball does what damn well pleases! Rewriting ALL the god damn rules!
joshQuote Reply
Playing your outfielders deep is the new market inefficiency.
Yoenis!
uncle daveQuote Reply
Moneyball just scored on a wild pitch!
joshQuote Reply
Moneyball wins
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Josh Reddick is mad Yoenis fucked up his stats.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
(dying laughing) Yep. Kinda fun to watch a team that doesn’t suck once in a while.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
It’s exactly like watching the Cubs, but without that feeling that the game is a foregone conclusion.
Yeah, I guess it does make a difference.
joshQuote Reply
FYI, Vasgersian busted out his moronic “Santa Maria” catch phrase on the Coco play. On Playstation he reserves it for grand slams only.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Are the A’s going to blow this again?
mb21Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
2 run error is very similar to a grand slam. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
That’s fitting.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Yes
Suburban kidQuote Reply
DPLeeted
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
is that what he says instead of “Holy shit!” or something?
joshQuote Reply
Wow, Delmon Young is really shitty. I’m surprised the Tigers didn’t try to upgrade him. I know a certain left fielder with bad knees who was available…
joshQuote Reply
http://www.avclub.com/articles/parks-and-recreations-ben-wyatt-summer-jamz-mix-is,86278/
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yes. With an exaggerated Spanish accent.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I was just going to watch the Nats game today but this turned out to be a very good game.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Exciting!
Suburban kidQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
Feeling pretty bad for the A’s right now. That home field advantage sure feels meaningless now
BerseliusQuote Reply
That was a really good game.
mb21Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/previews/alds-series-preview-orioles-vs-yankees.html
mb21Quote Reply