Another shitty Cubs season in review: Randy Wells

In Commentary And Analysis, News And Rumors by dmick89Leave a Comment

The 2011 Cubs posted the 109th worst winning percentage in its history. What’s really depressing about that is since I’ve been a fan the following Cubs teams have been as bad or worse: 1986, 1983, 1994, 1997, 2002, 1999, 2006, 2000, 1980, and 1981. Of the Cubs 137 year history, 11 teams have had a .438 winning percentage or lower. Of the teams as bad or worse than the 2011 group, of which there have only been 28, 39.3% of them have occurred since I became a fan. Almost 40%!

The Cubs were 62 points below .500. 11 teams have been as bad or worse than that since 1980. If we look at .562 or better Cubs teams, only the 2008 and 1989 teams have been that good. That’s it. 11 have been at least 62 points below .500 and only 2 have been as good or better than 62 points above .500.

The 2008 Cubs had the 21st best winning percentage in club history. This includes years like 1880 in which the Cubs were 67-17-2. The top 3 seasons in club history were between 1876 and 1885. Of the top 10 best seasons 6 of them occurred before 1900. The second best Cubs team in my life was the 1989 Cubs. They had the 35th best winning percentage in club history. Then there’s the 1998 Cubs at 45th. This is a team that didn’t even win the division. Of the top 50 Cubs teams ever, only 5 of them occurred since 1980.

Basically, the Cubs have sucked in my lifetime. Not just sucked, but really really sucked. Many of the club’s worst seasons in history have happened since I became a fan. It was no surprise that the 2011 Cubs would be one of those teams. Entering the season I thought 75 wins was about where they’d end up. I wouldn’t have been surprised with as few as 65 wins or as many as 85 wins. That’s just baseball, but in terms of talent this was about a 75 win club entering the season. The difference in 4 games from what was projected and how they ended is in large part due to the injuries the Cubs suffered early in the season. Andrew Cashner would not make another start and would not reappear after his first start until late in the season. Randy Wells would return sooner than that, but he was absent for about two months. You can find the 4 wins there.

Other than those two injuries, the Cubs were mostly healthy. They had the occasional injury here and there, but what team doesn’t? They didn’t have another key player miss significant time because of injury. Carlos Zambrano would miss significant time for other reasons. The Cubs didn’t really have any breakout seasons. Starlin Castro didn’t hit 18 home runs and have a .370 wOBA. He improved, which is all we wanted to see. Matt Garza got off to a horrible start and after settling in he threw better than expected. Ryan Dempster threw worse than expected. Aramis Ramirez had a great season. Alfonso Soriano had a great first month or two and then disappeared. Geovany Soto never got going. Carlos Pena did what we expected and the guys who filled in for Wells and Cashner also did what we expected.

This team, for the most part, was exactly what we expected.

I last wrote about Carlos Marmol as what was kind of a season in review. Seems like it’s a good idea to just keep going so we’ll talk about Randy Wells season next.

Randy-Wells-reviewRandy Wells (Fangraphs, B-Ref)

Wells had a breakout season in 2009 leading many to think he was going to put together a very good career. His 3.05 ERA that season was misleading. He actually allowed 3.65 runs per 9 innings (RA). A typical pitcher witha  3.05 ERA would have had a 3.25 RA. Several of the runs he allowed were classified as unearned resulting in the low ERA. Furthermore, he stranded 76% of the runners on base, had a low BABIP and a low HR/FB rate. His FIP was closer to 4 (still very good) and his xFIP was 4.18 (still better than average). His tERA was 4.2 and his SIERA was 4.33. His OPS allowed that season was .680, but with men on base it was .641. We’ve talked about sequencing before, and how it impacts a player’s runs allowed. This is just another example. Wells kept the runs off the board and that’s all that matters for that season, but as far as predicting future performance, we have to eliminate as much of the luck as possible. There was simply no reason to think that Wells could hold batters to a much lower OPS with men on than overall.

His ERA jumped to 4.26 the following year (almost identical to the ERA predictors from the year before). His FIP remained what it was in 2009 and his xFIP even lowered. He threw about 30 more innings and was a more valuable pitcher, but the idea of him being a very good pitcher had worn off. In fact, fans were very disappointed with Wells season a year ago and there was even a thought about taking him out of the rotation, which was utter nonsense. He had pitched as well in 2010 as he did the year before. The luck was the difference.

This year, though, he did not have a good season at all. After his start on April 4th against the Diamondbacks in which he went 6 and allowed only 1 run he didn’t make another appearance until May 28th. His ERA jumped even more this season. It was 4.99 and unlike the previous two years in which his FIP was around 3.9, it had jumped over 5. His xFIP was in the 4.4 range, but given the offense this year that’s below average. tERA has him at an awful 5.73.

The biggest difference this year is that Wells allowed fewer ground balls than ever before. This means he’d have to allow more line drives or flyballs or a combination of the two. His LD% was the exact same as the year before, but his FB% increased 33.3% (in 2009 and 2010) to 37.9%. More fly balls means more home runs allowed. 13.8% of the fly balls hit off of Wells were home runs. We typically expect about 10% so some of that was obviously just bad luck. Still, he’s as much responsible for those runs in one season’s performance as he was for the fortunate luck he had in 2009. Wells gave up more fly balls and more of the fly balls left the park. That’s not a good formula for success.

His K/9 had jumped a full strikeout per 9 more from 2009 to 2010, but in 2011 it dropped to below his 2009 figure. His walk rate was also the highest in his career. He had a 7.0% walk rate in 2009 and 15.1% strikeout rate. For the walk rate I’ve included hit by pitch and have subtracted IBB from both the batters faced and free passes. For strikeout rate I subtrated IBB from total batters faced. In 2010 the BB% increased to 7.6%, but the strikeout rate jumped to 17.2%. This past season the BB% increased a bit more to 7.8% and the K% fell to 14.2%.

More batters have reached via the free pass each year and more batters were putting the ball in play. Of those additional balls in play, many more of them have been fly balls this year than in the past and to make it even worse, a lot more of the fly balls have left the yard.

Overall impression: Wells season is a bit surprising, but at the same time it’s not. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, though he’s shown above average control. By keeping the ball on the ground he’s been effective despite the low strikeout rate. He had a disappointing season and he’d be the first to say it. He no doubt expects more out of himself than he provided this year. Some of the reasons for his poor performance are luck related. Others are not. I expected a better season, but he’s also the kind of guy whose stats aren’t overwhelming and maybe it’s just me, but those guys seem to fall off a cliff a lot sooner than the good ones do.

Next year: I don’t think Randy Wells returns to what he did in 2009 or 2010, but I’m relatively certain that he’ll be better than he was this year. He might not be league average, but unless the Cubs find themselves with a lot more starting pitchers than they currently have he’ll be in the rotation. Quade stuck with him all season when it would have been easy to relegate him to the bullpen. The Cubs will have a new manager, but the absence of starting pitchers better than Randy Wells means he’ll get another chance. He’ll be arbitration eligible and thanks to a disappointing 2011 and an inflated ERA in 2010, he won’t be paid much next year. I’d guess $1 million and maybe even something like $850,000. For that money, he’ll easily be worth what he’s being paid.


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  1. Berselius

    I love how I’ve seen chatter that Samardzija might take his rotation spot. Even funnier is that the Cubs have a club option on F7 for next year, and no one has said otherwise that the Cubs will exercise it (dying laughing).

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  2. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]I love how I’ve seen chatter that Samardzija might take his rotation spot. Even funnier is that the Cubs have a club option on F7 for next year, and no one has said otherwise that the Cubs will exercise it (dying laughing).[/quote]They have a club option, but they also have have control of him for at least 3 more years. Probably 4. I’d assume the option would be declined so the Cubs could instead pay him league minimum.

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  3. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]They have a club option, but they also have have control of him for at least 3 more years. Probably 4. I’d assume the option would be declined so the Cubs could instead pay him league minimum.[/quote]
    Is it really that long? I thought when he signed his deal in 07 it was a big league deal, which started that clock early. But I guess you only get service time when you’re actually up.

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  4. mb21

    From what I can tell based on game logs, Samardzija’s service time is about 2 years and 20 days or 2.020 as it’s often written. So he’s not even eligible for arbitration.

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  5. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]From what I can tell based on game logs, Samardzija’s service time is about 2 years and 20 days or 2.020 as it’s often written. So he’s not even eligible for arbitration.[/quote]
    That can’t be right. Maybe I’m mixing up service time with options though.

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  6. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Berselius]That can’t be right. Maybe I’m mixing up service time with options though.[/quote]My somewhat unreliable recollection is that he was brought up in the tail end of 2008, got a few looks in 2009 before they dumped him back to Iowa, wasn’t here all that much in 2010, and then was around in 2011 for most of the season so the two year thing looks about right.

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  7. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Is it really that long? I thought when he signed his deal in 07 it was a big league deal, which started that clock early. But I guess you only get service time when you’re actually up.[/quote]Yeah, his MLB service time didn’t begin until he was called up in late July 2008. He accrued about 68 days of service time that year. The following year he had about 70 days or so of service time. In 2010 he only had about 30 days. He was up the entire season this year. So that’s 1 + 170 days (thereabouts). That’s 1.170. It takes 172 days for one full year of service time.

    When I looked through is game logs it’s impossible to figure out when he was called up or sent down, but I got about 2.020. Give or take 30 days.

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  8. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]That can’t be right. Maybe I’m mixing up service time with options though.[/quote]It’s right. Options are when a player is optioned to the minor leagues. A player gets 4 of them if drafted out of college and 5 in high school. It may still have been 3 and 4 when Samardzija was drafted. Pretty sure it was. So he was signed to a big league deal after the 2006 season (2006 doesn’t count since it’s a partial season). He was optioned in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. He’s out of options, but his service time is still well under 3 years. He’s not even arbitration eligible.

    The most his contract could be worth was $16.5 million. He was signed for 5 years and $10 million, which took him from 2007 through 2011. He has options in 2012 and 2013 worth as much as $6.5 million. There is an option each year. My guess is that the option is for something like $3.1 million next year and $3.4 million in 2013. He was paid $3.0 million last year so a small raise would seem reasonable.

    It’s hard to imagine the Cubs exercising that option. There’s no need to. Even if he’s arbitration eligible he’d get no more than $1 million and probably no more than $600,000.

    He can’t become a free agent until after the 2015 season. Well, if the Cubs keep him anyway. If they released him then he’d be a free agent who signed a minor league contract.

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  9. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-cubs_112114177768677294.html

    Cots suggests F7 has 1.028 in MLB service. Seems a bit low, not sure if they forgot to update it for this year.[/quote]No, it’s not updated so it’s 2.028 now. I was close. (dying laughing) Only 8 days off by looking through 4 years of game logs.

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  10. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]No, it’s not updated so it’s 2.028 now. I was close. (dying laughing) Only 8 days off by looking through 4 years of game logs.[/quote]I thought they tossed him back into Iowa for a bit at the beginning of the season…was he up all year?

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  11. mb21

    There may have been some kind of agreement when the contract was signed that the Cubs would exercise the option or release him. I don’t know. I’m positive the Cubs sportswriters don’t know and never will as clueless as they are. It’s actually something someone like Sullivan could write about. But he’d first have to figure transactions out and there’s a better chance I find a million dollar bill in my shirt pocket tonight.

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  12. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]If they did send him down this year, it wasn’t for the required 10 days: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=samarje01&t=p&year=2011

    I’m pretty sure he was out of options entering the year anyway so couldn’t be sent down.[/quote]Correct! My mistake.

    Cots’ listings don’t say anything about contractual obligations other than that he can’t play football during the length of the contract.

    It seems like a competent GM would know how to work the system to void the options and then re-sign him to either a min-wage or minor league contract as you have said. A competent GM would probably also non-tender not-so-useful guys like Koyie Hill but that’s a story for another day.

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  13. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]The Cubs need to bring back Cap Anson, or at least Frank Chance. Those were true leaders.[/quote]http://www.tshirthell.com/funny-shirts/slavery-gets-shit-done/

    Well, I don’t actually know if he was a proponent thereof, but this shirt is funny.

    /racist’d

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  14. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Berselius]Ryno, WTF at that Texas game. I didn’t think they would win but I didn’t think they’d get taken to the woodshed like that. The oline couldn’t block anything.[/quote]
    1. I think the defense was tired. Nevermind, that was too far.
    2. We’re playing a TON of freshman and sophomores. I think it was obvious that OU was just bigger, faster, stronger, etc.

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  15. ACT

    [quote name=ACT]Looks like a made a calculation error, and they’re more like a .474 team. Still better than the Pirates, though.[/quote]OK, final, official calculation: since 1991 the Cubs were 1615 and 1717, which is a .485 record.

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  16. WaLi

    [quote name=ACT]OK, final, official calculation: since 1991 the Cubs were 1615 and 1717, which is a .485 record.[/quote]Addition and division – It’s FUNdamental!

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  17. ACT

    I think one problem with the Cubs this year, injury-wise is not how many of the position players were injured, but how they were all seemingly injured at the same time, which necessitated a lot of second-rate callups getting more time than they should have.

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  18. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]The problem is I was entering the values in by hand reading off a b-ref spreadsheet.[/quote]You can probably convert it into a csv or a table, paste it into Notebook and then open the table in Excel to make it easier for yourself next time. Pretty nice feature they set up for statheads.

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  19. WaLi

    [quote name=Rice Cube]You can probably convert it into a csv or a table, paste it into Notebook and then open the table in Excel to make it easier for yourself next time. Pretty nice feature they set up for statheads.[/quote]Can’t you just copy it directly into Excel?

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  20. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]You can probably convert it into a csv or a table, paste it into Notebook and then open the table in Excel to make it easier for yourself next time. Pretty nice feature they set up for statheads.[/quote]Oh, I’m aware there are better ways of doing it, but I didn’t feel like figuring that stuff out, even though I may have taken more time as a result.

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  21. Rice Cube

    [quote name=WaLi]Can’t you just copy it directly into Excel?[/quote]Perhaps you can, the one time I tried it didn’t work right but that’s possibly because I’m almost Amish when it comes to these things…

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  22. mb21

    [quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]I’ll send you her number. Want his sister’s number too?[/quote]What about his mother’s?

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  23. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Correct! My mistake.

    Cots’ listings don’t say anything about contractual obligations other than that he can’t play football during the length of the contract.

    It seems like a competent GM would know how to work the system to void the options and then re-sign him to either a min-wage or minor league contract as you have said. A competent GM would probably also non-tender not-so-useful guys like Koyie Hill but that’s a story for another day.[/quote]I’d be surprised if they don’t decline the option, but it’s possible there was some “handshake” agreement. Don’t know why a new GM would honor it, but it’s possible.

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  24. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]I think one problem with the Cubs this year, injury-wise is not how many of the position players were injured, but how they were all seemingly injured at the same time, which necessitated a lot of second-rate callups getting more time than they should have.[/quote]This article is really the first time I’ve thought much about the 2011 season in a long while. It’s definitely the first time I’ve thought about it in terms of what went wrong. There were many things, but there were also some things that went in favor of the Cubs. The end result was a record very similar to what was projected out of this group.

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  25. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Oh, I’m aware there are better ways of doing it, but I didn’t feel like figuring that stuff out, even though I may have taken more time as a result.[/quote]If you’re using Firefox, there’s this addon that copies existing tables into a spreadsheet (simple as copy/paste): https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/dafizilla-table2clipboard/?src=search

    In Safari you can just copy the entire table and paste. I’m sure there’s something in IE that does it.

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  26. WaLi

    [quote name=mb21]This article is really the first time I’ve thought much about the 2011 season in a long while. It’s definitely the first time I’ve thought about it in terms of what went wrong. There were many things, but there were also some things that went in favor of the Cubs. The end result was a record very similar to what was projected out of this group.[/quote]
    That’s why stats and spreadsheets and numbers suck the fun out of it. We all knew exactly how the season was going to end!

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  27. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]Interesting, though I find Firefox addons frustrating because they become obsolete every time I get a new FF update.[/quote]That’s never happened with that addon. At least not so far.

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  28. mb21

    [quote name=WaLi]I just selected it all and copied & paste. Seems to have worked.[/quote]Same as Safari then. I’m not sure why Firefox is so stubborn. Maybe it’s not and I just haven’t tried it. Let me try it.

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  29. mb21

    Just highlighting the table, copying and then pasting now works in Firefox. You get the links with it, which I always hate, but there may be some setting that can be changed.

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  30. WaLi

    [quote name=mb21]Just highlighting the table, copying and then pasting now works in Firefox. You get the links with it, which I always hate, but there may be some setting that can be changed.[/quote]
    When you copy it into excel, do “Text Only” or “Match Destination Formatting”

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  31. Rice Cube

    [quote name=WaLi]That’s why stats and spreadsheets and numbers suck the fun out of it. We all knew exactly how the season was going to end![/quote]

    Substitute “Cubs” for “Bears” and disregard the “let them off the hook” part.

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  32. mb21

    [quote name=WaLi]When you copy it into excel, do “Text Only” or “Match Destination Formatting”[/quote]Duh. (dying laughing)

    Hey, is everything on the site all good at home? Just a work problem?

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  33. mb21

    Everything on the site should be good to go with IE 7. I know it may have issues with IE 6, but there’s only so much you can do to make sites cross compatible with every browser on the planet.

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  34. Rice Cube

    It was the mailman’s last day on the job after 35 years of carrying the mail through all kinds of weather to the same neighborhood. When he arrived at the first house on his route he was greeted by the whole family there, who congratulated him and sent him on his way with a big gift envelope. At the second house they presented him with a box of fine cigars. The folks at the third house handed him a selection of terrific fishing lures.

    At the fourth house he was met at the door by a strikingly beautiful woman in a revealing negligee. She took him by the hand, gently led him through the door (which she closed behind him), and led him up the stairs to the bedroom where she blew his mind with the most passionate love he had ever experienced. When he had had enough they went downstairs, where she fixed him a giant breakfast: eggs, potatoes, ham, sausage, blueberry waffles, and fresh-squeezed orange juice. When he was truly satisfied she poured him a cup of steaming coffee. As she was pouring, he noticed a dollar bill sticking out from under the cup’s bottom edge.

    “All this was just too wonderful for words,” he said, “but what’s the dollar for?” “Well,” she said, “last night, I told my husband that today would be your last day, and that we should do something special for you. I asked him what to give you.” He said, “Fuck him, give him a dollar.” The lady then said, “The breakfast was my idea.”

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  35. ACT

    OK, figured out how to copy/paste the table in EXCEL (using “paste special”). Basically, the Cubs have been a .480 team for the past 3 decades or so. I wouldn’t say they’ve “really, really sucked,” but they’ve tended to be a bit below average.

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  36. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    [quote name=mb21]What about his mother’s?[/quote]Her phone got shut off. But you can go visit her in person. Third shack from the river, just behind the rusting Buicks.

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  37. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]OK, figured out how to copy/paste the table in EXCEL (using “paste special”). Basically, the Cubs have been a .480 team for the past 3 decades or so. I wouldn’t say they’ve “really, really sucked,” but they’ve tended to be a bit below average.[/quote]I was thinking more about how so many seasons have been as bad as 2011 and worse.

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  38. binky

    It’s a bad season when the Cubs lose one of their best position players to a facial fracture for 1.5 months and it doesn’t really even hurt them in the long run.

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  39. Suburban kid

    [quote name=josh]I guess that could also be the sign of a good season.[/quote]It could go either way. You never know.

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  40. Berselius

    [quote name=josh]I guess that could also be the sign of a good season.[/quote]
    Maybe it’s just a sign of a season.

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  41. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]It might be.[/quote]
    A man in a yellow blazer told me that the Cubs played baseball this year. Who knew?

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  42. binky

    All I know is if the 2001 Cubs had lost Sammy Sosa for a long time, they would have been screwed. Delino DeSheilds was a nice guy and all, but not exactly the same player.

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  43. Berselius

    [quote name=Aisle424]When did we start turning comments green?[/quote]
    There are green comments?

    /green colorblind

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  44. mb21

    I’m toying around with it. I had mentioned about a month ago that there had to be a way to do it so I’ve been looking into it and found a way. Now I just need to figure out how to turn the entire box green. This stuff is important!

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  45. WaLi

    [quote name=Berselius]There are green comments?

    /green colorblind[/quote]Comment #49. It’s a very light green. Good job MB!

    Now do they turn red if you get too many negative faget points?

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  46. mb21

    [quote name=WaLi]Comment #49. It’s a very light green. Good job MB!

    Now do they turn red if you get too many negative faget points?[/quote]I haven’t added anything for negative votes, but I’d probably just turn them green. (dying laughing)

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  47. WaLi

    First shalt thou make a good comment. Then, shalt thou get faget points to four. No more. No less. Four shalt be the number thou shalt get, and the number of the faget points shall be four. Five shalt thou not count, neither count thou three, excepting that thou then proceed to four. Six is right out. Once at the number four, being the fourth number to be reached, then, thy Holy Comment of Obstructed view, who, being naughty in MB-ey sight, shall green it.

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  48. Rice Cube

    [quote name=WaLi]First shalt thou make a good comment. Then, shalt thou get faget points to four. No more. No less. Four shalt be the number thou shalt get, and the number of the faget points shall be four. Five shalt thou not count, neither count thou three, excepting that thou then proceed to four. Six is right out. Once at the number four, being the fourth number to be reached, then, thy Holy Comment of Obstructed view, who, being naughty in MB-ey sight, shall green it.[/quote]Let there be green.

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  49. Rice Cube

    I confess to not knowing as much about meth as one should (if anyone is to know about meth past the fact that it’s bad for you) but does one actually use bromine and barium in its synthesis?

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  50. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I confess to not knowing as much about meth as one should (if anyone is to know about meth past the fact that it’s bad for you) but does one actually use bromine and barium in its synthesis?[/quote]It’s just a thing they do in the credits where they replace letters in everyone’s name with a chemical symbol. Totally dependent on the letters available, not on specific chemicals used.

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  51. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]It’s just a thing they do in the credits where they replace letters in everyone’s name with a chemical symbol. Totally dependent on the letters available, not on specific chemicals used.[/quote]Ah, duly noted. And now you are partway to green status.

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  52. pinetar

    [quote name=mb21]What’s up, pinetar?[/quote]
    Busy as hell and decided to take a break, other than that not much. How about you?

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  53. mb21

    [quote name=pinetar]Busy as hell and decided to take a break, other than that not much. How about you?[/quote]I’m still a Cubs fan so I’m still pounding my head against a wall for some unknown reason.

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  54. mb21

    [quote name=pinetar]Figured I’d pass the Meth instructions out. . . 😉 Should be passing out the Tannerite recipe instead.[/quote]Do you watch Breaking Bad?

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  55. pinetar

    [quote name=mb21]I’m still a Cubs fan so I’m still pounding my head against a wall for some unknown reason.[/quote]
    This year was a waste of time. Q-Ball needs to go and at least they got rid of doughnut boy.

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  56. mb21

    [quote name=pinetar]No, if it’s not sports related I watch very little TV.[/quote]You should make an exception. You’ll be happy you did.

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  57. pinetar

    [quote name=mb21]You should make an exception. You’ll be happy you did.[/quote]
    Will check it out, if the title translates to it’s content maybe I could learn a few things. 😉

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  58. mb21

    I’m not sure if you’d want to learn anything from the show. If you did, there’s a good chance you’d find yourself in prison.

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  59. pinetar

    [quote name=mb21]I’m not sure if you’d want to learn anything from the show. If you did, there’s a good chance you’d find yourself in prison.[/quote]One can always file the stuff away for when the shit hits the fan in this country which the way it’s going won’t be long. At least I’ll be better prepared to take a few with me 😉

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  60. mb21

    [quote name=GW]http://bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1372633&position=0

    theo ———> cubs in 24 to 48 hrs[/quote]Sweet.

    Can anyone put up an article about this? I can’t get to it for about an hour or so.

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