The Cubs added another right handed starting pitcher to their team today when they signed Scott Feldman to a 1-year deal for $6 million. There's another million bucks in incentives. Although he hasn't come close to a full season pitched in terms of innings but one time in his career, he's been relatively healthy. He hasn't had an arm injury since 2006 and that was a forearm injury. He battled through a knee injury in 2010 and then missed most of 2011 due to a knee surgery.
Following his impressive 2009 season the Rangers bought out his final years of club control with a 2-year deal for $11.5 million. The Rangers held a $9.25 million club option for 2013, but declined it.
According to pitch f/x on Fangraphs, his most common pitch is a sinker that he threw at an average of 91.5 mph last year (91.7 in 2011 and just below 91 in 2010). He also throws a cutter, curveball, changeup and the occasional 4-seam fastball. He threw his cutter most often last year against lefties, which isn't too surprising. He threw the sinker more frequently against righties.
He keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't strike a lot of batters out (just 17.9% last year). He also doesn't walk many hitters (6% last year, 8% in his career).
Despite keeping the ball on the ground, and in the ballpark about as one would expect, he's never really had as good an ERA as you might expect. His career ERA is over 4.8 and he has a 4.56 FIP and 4.52 xFIP. He had an ERA over 5 last year, but his FIP and xFIP were in the 3.80s. He's a guy who has been up and down throughout his career though mostly he's just been down.
His career fWAR is only 8.7 in 727 innings. He has 4.7 career WARP and 3.0 rWAR. Over the past few seasons his fWAR is 3.9 in just under 300 innings. The WARP is 2.9 and his rWAR -0.7. His rWAR was -1.1 in 2010 and he followed that with 0.4 in 40+ innings and only 0.0 last year.
He has some upside, but then again, what MLB player doesn't? Throwing strikes is something this team hasn't excelled at over the past decade, but it's something the new front office is emphasizing. They're also going after pitchers will good control though the K-BB% is still probably not as good as the types of pitchers the Cubs went after before.
I don't think that's too surprising considering the type of player the Cubs are targeting. They're not going after the higher profile players, but rather the guys who might come at a bargain.
As far as bargains go, this one looks to be a pretty good one. CAIRO projects 100 innings pitched and a 4.73 ERA. it projects an FIP of 4.27 and 1.1 WAR. Those projections are for the Rangers so a move to the NL will lower those rates a bit and increase the WAR. Bill James projects a 4.19 ERA and 4.14 FIP while Guru projects and ERA over 5.
It seems to me that Guru is probably a little too pessimistic while Bill James a little too optimistic. That said, I expect Feldman to be worth a little over a win and be worth the $6 million he's being paid. There's the possibility he's much worse or a little better making him a good bargain.
It's a good sign by the Cubs. There's little to risk and potentially something to gain. If Feldman can show that last season is something that can be repeated the Cubs get a chance to have a solid 3rd or 4th starter and someone they could extend.
Dave Cameron put it well here:
Feldman might not have the reputation of a quality starter yet, but he’s shown the skills necessary to become a perfectly acceptable middle-of-the-rotation innings eater. Last year, he ran a 3/1 K/BB ratio while maintaining an average ground ball rate, putting him in the same xFIP range as guys like Kyle Lohse, Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, and Dan Haren,. He doesn’t have the same track record of success as those guys, but he’s also going to cost a fraction of the price, and offers the same low BB/average K/average GB skillset.
In a more friendly home ballpark and with better results at stranding runners, Feldman projects to be something not too far from a league average starting pitcher in 2013. And, while he’s going to be labeled a stop-gap type of signing, he doesn’t turn 30-years-old until February, so there’s no reason to think that the Cubs can’t extract longer term value from him if he pitches well in 2013. With Feldman and Baker, the Cubs have added a couple of pieces to their rotation who aren’t just pump-and-dump guys, but could be solid pieces to build future rotations around as well. This isn’t just patching a hole because the Cubs need arms for next season – these deals are investments in buying low on pitchers who could be part of the next good Cubs team, even if that team is still several years away.
There's a bit of a small sample size issue when he compares Feldman's last 150 innings to those of Dempster, Jackson, Lohse and Haren who have consistently put up above average xFIPs. Prior to the previous 150, Feldman had been much worse so take the sample size stuff written there with a grain of salt.
Comments
In all seriousness, Marvin Miller is probably the second most important baseball figure of the 20th century next to Jackie Robinson. I hope he gets his fair share of praise in the coming days.
GBTSQuote Reply
PFD wrote:
It’s definitely better than what we finished with last year. We might get to 63 wins next year!
WaLiQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I’d put Buck O’Neil right after Jackie.
mb21Quote Reply
WaLi wrote:
It’s a way of [L]ife!
PFDQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
GBTSQuote Reply
I can see that rotation, if it remains healthy AND intact for the full season leading to 75 wins or so. But Garza and Baker are far from guaranteed to stay healthy and if everything goes well enough for them to possibly win 75, at least 2 of those guys are getting traded.
Aisle424Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
I think Jackie should be summarily dismissed from the HOF and not be allowed back in until Buck O’neil is admitted.
WaLiQuote Reply
I think it’s a pretty good move. There’s no real downside here with a one-year deal, and he’s the type of guy who you can put in front of a solid defense and get some decent numbers from. If he does well on the traditional metrics like ERA, he suddenly becomes valuable at the deadline and could bring back a decent return.
This is pretty much the type of move I’d expect the Cubs to make this year.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
GBTSQuote Reply
The Rays just signed an All-Star 3B for $100 million, and the Cubs sign a mediocre starter for $6 million? Is Theo even trying to win a World Series? Why is he not offering $200 million to Matt Cain?
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
There’s that…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Made the mistake of foraying into the comments at BCB, but did come across this John Arguello write up on Valbuena
PFDQuote Reply
I mention it was a mistake to read BCB comments because of gems like this:
PFDQuote Reply
@ PFD:
Irrelevant dude (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ PFD:
The Cubs may tender Valbuena (he’s projected to earn under $1MM anyway) but I think they haven’t given up on Ian Stewart yet. I’m also curious as to how serious they were about Jeff Keppinger.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Is it necessary to do this?
No, it is not.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Gotta love Al answering his own questions.
Is OV an accredited Cubs blog?
No, it is not.
/Yellon’d
PFDQuote Reply
PFD wrote:
;
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
@ PFD:
Has this supplanted “false” then? (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I think Stewart gets non-tendered then signed to a new, cheaper deal.
BerseliusQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
This.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
You and I don’t often agree, blah blah, snark, correct.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ PFD:
I felt like I was one of the few people here who wasn’t abhorred by Valbuena this season. I think I only saw every single one of his at bats where he got a hit this year, because his actual numbers are grossly below what I would have guessed based on the limited games I watched.
I also like the idea of Valbuena being a “bounce back” candidate, which is like saying that Herman Cain is a “bounce back” presidential contender in 2016.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
He and Stewart had similar slash lines last season.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
sadly I had this impression as well given my infrequent Cubs viewing (I usually spent the time I would normally spend watching Cubs game for drinking bleach, which appears to have been better for my long term health than being a Cubs fan).
MishQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
We’ll keep them all on a rotating basis, jabroni.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I do like that “jabroni” seems to have replaced “faget” as a benign insult we can call each other.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Is “jabroni” a real word? I guess I should look this up on Urban Dictionary.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Jabroni&defid=1184851
Ha.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
PFD wrote:
Is that a question you would ask Tom Petty?
No, it is not.
Aisle424Quote Reply
GBTS wrote:
Irrelevant dude
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I had to look it up too. My thumb is not on the pulse of what the kids were saying whenever the hell it was that The Rock was a thing.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Aw, dude, when I was in college I had a friend who was obsessed with wrestling and would walk around quoting The Rock’s speeches all the time, down to the dramatic inhales. God damn that was annoying
joshQuote Reply
I used to be into pro wrestling (circa 1993 – 2001) so I instantly picked up where “jabroni” was from. I have a) no idea if that term is still used by The Rock (or if he even wrestles these days) or b) no idea that assholes actually used this term in normal dialogue.
MishQuote Reply
Just because we’re talking about wrestling:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMmAsqtGRmk
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I am pretty sure The Rock is too busy being a Fairy to wrestle.
Not that there is anything wrong with that.
WaLiQuote Reply
Is there anywhere I can go that summarizes the awfulness that is BCB?
Besides BCB, I mean.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Go to bathroom. Take shit in toilet. Look in toilet.
MishQuote Reply
Castro #24 on Keri’s MLB Top 50 Trade Value Rankings
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8627624/rating-players-contracts-major-league-baseball-part-2
GBTSQuote Reply
LaHair ———> taking his talents to/saving face with the Softbank Hawks
looks like this got announced last week. I don’t read every word, bro
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
Carlos Ruiz —-> suspended 25 games for amphetamines (Adderall?)
MishQuote Reply
Carlos Ruiz just got suspended for 25 games and no Cubs players give enough of a crap to try using chemicals to make themselves better at baseball?? WHAT IS THEO DOING!?
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
There’s a 25 game suspension penalty? I thought it started at 50 unless amphetamines aren’t considered a PED in that class.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Amphetamines only perk you up and don’t make you stronger so you can hit more homeruns, so they are less bad.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Mish:
Are your men on the right pills? Maybe you should execute their trainer.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
To put this rotation into perspective we can actually just use the 2012 version. Baker and Feldman are replacing Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm. Each of those two pitchers is better than Baker or Feldman. If the Cubs had Baker and Feldman last year, this probably would have been their opening day rotation: Dempster, Garza, Maholm, Baker, Feldman.
That’s probably better than we expected last opening day with J-Sam in the rotation, but he turned ot to be pretty good. Volstad was only started over Wood because Wood had a poor spring training (silly sample size decisions). Knowing what we know now about the starters from last year, it’s definitely a better rotation than they’re going to run out in 2013.
/pissing on the parade
mb21Quote Reply
@ GBTS:
Stanton has to be behind Harper and Trout.
mb21Quote Reply
@ GBTS:
I didn’t mind Valbuena, but a bounce back candidate? He probably will bounce back from being horrible, but usually a bounce back candidate means two things: the player has the potential to be at least average or better and he’s been at least average or better before. Valbuena is neither. Maybe he’s a bounce candidate, but even that I don’t buy.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
No. Don’t even
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Won’t the Cubs have to remove two people from the 40-man now, to make room for Feldman and Stanton?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
They’ll also have to make room for Greinke.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I doubt the work on the rotation is done. Considering Theo talks about going 9 deep, I doubt he wants to depend on Baker starting the season healthy. That’s why I am still expecting one more signing which will really determine where our rotation will be. I’d love them to go for Anibal, but I kinda doubt they will. I’m expecting they will be in on one of McCarthy, Marcum, or other guys. A rotation of Garza, Samardzija, Marcum/McCarthy, Baker (Wood if hes not ready yet) and Feldman I think would be better than what they started with last year.
I think the goal is to flip some of the guys like Garza, Feldman, and Baker and give some guys like Vizcaino, Whitenack, Bowden, and Cabrera (who are being converted to starters) a chance to get ready in AAA and come in halfway through the season to show what they can do. Hopefully one of those guys can stick in the rotation as cost controlled decent starters.
AndrewQuote Reply
http://reason.com/blog/2012/11/27/when-marvin-miller-almost-hired-richard
mb21Quote Reply
@ Andrew:
I don’t think they’re done either, but whether or not they’re better is something I think is mostly irrelevant. They’re not going to be much better, if at all. Right now they aren’t, but adding someone like Marcum probably makes them a little better though still not as good at the top of the rotation.
I also think they’ll try to trade some of these guys and hopefully they turn in good first halves to help with that.
mb21Quote Reply
I just came up with a better way to determine draft order. Teams pick in order of how long they’ve been playing since their last World Series berth (tie goes to the loser of the series). This way, the draft doesn’t incentivise losing and promotes rapid turnover of championship teams.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
You just want the Cubs to have the top pick each year of the rest of your life. (dying laughing)
I like the idea.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Shhhhhh!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I like this “Fuck the Marlins” rule.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ mb21:
They should do something more arbitrary, like say giving teams with the fewest letters in their team name high picks.
BerseliusQuote Reply
i was looking up the urbandictionary definition of “jabroni” that RC linked to above and saw that there was also a definition for “jabrony” so i clicked on it:
“A mixture between ping pong, pool, and golf. A gentlemen’s sport in which the player must land the ball in various holes by serving the ball ping pong style. This game was originated in the Kelly household and will go down as the greatest game ever made.”
maybe this is what the guys from rant meant to say. also i would like to play that game.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
oh and the use-it-in-a-sentence part of the definition makes it even cooler:
“Dude i won in jabrony last night against Katie and she had to run a naked lap.”
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
definition #15 under “jabroni”:
“1. One who is supposed to provide pizza, but doesn’t produce the goods.
2. One who fails to live up to their pizza responsibilities.
Also known as an Anchovy Jabroni or Pepperoni Jabroni”
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
deinition #17:
“Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun-Times, as referred to by Woody Paige on the television program ‘Around the Horn.'”
that’s right, mb (or whoever) got compared to jay fucking mariotti.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I was compared to Jay Mariotti? (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Irrelevant dude.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Oakland would be pretty happy with this.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I have caved to peer pressure and ordered Homeland Season 1. Pretty excited, even tho Amazon is currently out of stock. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Neat comment, pal.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Did you like 24? It’s kinda like that except far better acting and writing.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I loved 24.
MishQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Fixed it.
MuckerQuote Reply
Broxton got 3/24
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I’m surprised you haven’t watched Homeland already then.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
7th inning is pretty important, b.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
@ GBTS:
Indications are that Broxton is to be the closer and Aroldis goes to the rotation. I am on board with this as long as Chapman’s arm remains attached to his body.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
No Showtime. Hell I just got HBO a few months ago for Game of Thrones S2. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
This is really sad, and I think I might be going to hell because I laughed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mish:
That’s what the newsgroups are for. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Did Broxton become a bad pitcher or something? I look at his stats and with the exception of 12 innings in 2011 he’s been pretty damn good throughout his career. They only need about 4.3 wins from Broxton over 3 years to get equal value and that’s if the value of the win starts at $5 million this year (probably starts closer to $5.5 or higher). So somewhere between 4 and 4.4 wins is what he’s being paid for. He’ll probably have an average FIP projection of around 3.00 so really, the only question about him being worth that amount is whether or not he stays healthy.
I wouldn’t call it a good contract, but I wouldn’t call it a bad one either.
mb21Quote Reply
If Broxton stays healthy this year, he’ll probably be wroth about 1.5 wins.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Most of the Broxton complaints are scouting related. He looks like he put on 200 pounds in the last two years, and his strikeout rate has plummeted from what it was with LA.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I don’t like going three years for any reliever not named Mariano Rivera with a time machine. But that’s just a personal preference.
BerseliusQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
He is a pretty angry dude.
/pissing on your drapes
BerseliusQuote Reply
Vitters ———> sent packing by his VWL team
Berselius37Quote Reply
Berselius37 wrote:
Vit-ters?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Berselius37 wrote:
So sad.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Is it necessary to do this?
No, it is not.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
nice snark
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius37:
(dying laughing) who
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
You could make Pi-erre (Dying laughing) and Vi-tters (dying Laughing) or something.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I’m guessing the (dying laughing) who was on the Cubs in 2012, not the (dying laughing) who was on the Cubs in 2006. (dying laughing) may be the hardest working man in baseball, but I don’t think he needs to play winter ball.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Casey Coleman——> DFA’d
RodrigoQuote Reply
@ Rodrigo:
WaLiQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/venezuelan-league-team-was-worse-with-josh-vitters-so-they-released-him.html
mb21Quote Reply
Berselius wrote:
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yet the Rubes continue to make excuses for ownership, because they talk about prospects.
Ricketts might be worse than McCourt.
aaronbQuote Reply