The Cubs Convention took place this past weekend. OV's own Aisle424 was present and will summarize his thoughts on it shortly (I think). In the meantime, Josh has already weighed in. Bruce Miles was all over the goings-on, as well, and his twitter feed is well worth checking out. A couple of highlights:
Sveum: Campana "has a really hard time getting on base at the big league level," in response to fan. #Cubs
— Bruce Miles (@BruceMiles2112) January 19, 2013
Hoyer says Baez, Almora and Soler need to work on learning the strike zone. #Cubs
— Bruce Miles (@BruceMiles2112) January 19, 2013
I know the sheen is off the new front office for some, but I still take comfort in the little things, like their understanding of how runs are generated in baseball. In 2012, Almora, Baez, and Soler combined to walk 30 times in 675 plate appearances. That's good for a 4.4% rate, which is not good at all.
Compare these quotes to erstwhile minor league director Oneri Fleita on Josh Vitters near the start of the 2011 season:
There are times when Vitters is too patient at the plate.
Coming in to the 2011 season, Vitters had walked 56 times in 1269 plate appearances. That is good for, you guessed it, a 4.4% rate.
There is something to be said for not calling out young players in public, and there is even a case to be made for not fiddling too much with a player's approach. Fleita himself made this case in to Kevin Goldstein:
You just let guys like that play. I learned a long time ago that guys who can hit .300 with power, you can teach them to hit .200 with no power, so when they have that much talent, you let them write their own script.
The bottom line, though, is that Cubs' system has a plate discipline problem, and has had that problem for as long as I can remember. The talent has not been good enough to let the players "write their own script." The difference between The Thoyer and Hendry Eras is that the former publicly acknowledges that it's a really big deal, and is evidently going to do everything they can to fix it. Jabronis like me can appreciate that.
josh wrote:
agreed
GWQuote Reply
I definitely like that this front office appreciates getting on base more than the previous one did. It’s nice to see.
I probably wouldn’t even believe this if it were true, but Vitters doesn’t hit .300.
dmick89Quote Reply
Soler does need to improve his walk rate, but so far he’s been better than the other two. Very small sample though.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m curious to know what defines “suck pretty righteously.” It’s hard for me to agree or disagree with that unless I have an idea of what falls within the range of sucking righteously.
I think this team can win 75 games. That’s not good, but would represent an enormous improvement over last year, and definitely wouldn’t constitute sucking righteously.
I think if you’re a hardcore fan, it’s worth tuning in to see if they can win 75 games.
Mark PryorQuote Reply
What prospect has the best plate discipline in the system?
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
brett jackson, i would say. (he’s still eligible).
GWQuote Reply
ba says logan watkins
GWQuote Reply
@ Mark Pryor:
I’m on record as predicting 100 losses again and i think I took it down to 98 after the Edwin Jackson signing. I’m not convinced yet that Garza is fine (too many years with the Cubs telling me Prior and Wood were fine), and I don’t think Samardzija lasts the season in the rotation because he suddenly has the most trade value. Couple that with the almost certain two-outcome scenario involving Soriano (he plays well and is traded or plays like crap again because he’s old and busted) and you’ve got a pretty bad team all over again.
Again, nobody besides Jackson and Vitters is really poised at the AAA or AA level to make an impact when trades or injuries occur and we’ve seen that neither of them are a lock to even be competent, much less impact players.
I agree that they have done a nice job of finding value, but they did not make this team better than they were last year at the start of the season, and we know there are still changes coming to the roster even if everybody stays healthy. So for now I’m sticking with 98 losses.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I think winning 75 games sucks, no matter how many wins they had last year. There’s not much qualitative difference to the fan experience between sucking and sucking righteously (which I would say means 70 wins or less). I can only agree that it will be worth tuning in for the first 2 months if they’re going to win at that clip. After that, it’s just like watching the same game over and over.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
^^^^^^^^^^
not a true fan
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I’ll tune into this team because it’s baseball, but I think they do suck. It’s entirely possible they win 75, 80 or even 85 games. Bad teams get lucky and win. it happens. I think they’re true talent win level is around 72-75 wins. However, they’re likely to trade some pieces this year like they did last year so we can probably cut a few wins off that and maybe even more.
dmick89Quote Reply
I might have something, but I missed the only part of the Convention that was worth commentary and that was the renovation plans. I almost feel like that has been done to death so much that all there is left is to mock it and I’m not feeling it at the moment.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Edwin:
I’d say it’s Brett Jackson. At the MLB level alone when he was pretty awful (though still better than replacement level) he had a .303 OBP (.175 batting average). He had a .379 OBP in the minors, which was 97 points higher than his average.
Dan Vogelbach is another one that comes to mind (.406 OBP so far in his career, 320 average).
Watkins has a .372 OBP and a .285 average.
Since I can’t possibly judge these guys on anything other than their walk rates when it comes to discipline, I think this is as good a way as any.
dmick89Quote Reply
Apparently earlier today it was learned that the Pirates had finally finalized a deal with Liriano and then an hour later it was reported it wasn’t finalized yet. They’re having issues trying to get that contract done.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d just like to say again that Dan Vogelbach is probably my favorite Cubs prospect. I think it would be so fun if he made it to the majors.
I know there are others that are better, but they’re all supposed to be good while everybody is saying this kid is too fat. Everything I’ve seen and heard about him is that he’s working his ass off to prove people wrong and he can destroy a baseball. I’m looking forward to when he’s at Kane County.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
He has the bat. At least to this point he does. I think it would be awesome to see him at the big league level hitting the shit out of baseballs.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
yep, pretty much. factor in power a little bit, given that a player with prolific power will probably be getting pitched around a little bit more.
pizza cutter made an important distinction between selective hitters and non-swingers back in the day. i never read it closely enough to try to duplicate his method. jackson might be more of a non-swinger, though that isn’t necessarily a bad thing on its own.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Yeah, power is important to include so considering that I’d probably switch to Watkins. he doesn’t have much power, but can sure can get on base.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
gotcha. i saw that you had a draft in the works, so i added that sentence.
GWQuote Reply
You don’t happen to have that Pizza Cutter article bookmarked, do you? I vaguely recall it, but I’d like to read it again.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
it was back in his statspeak days. the original site has disappeared, but i think most of his articles are somewhere here:
http://statspeakmvn.wordpress.com/
he did a bunch of cool stuff teasing out little factors like that. iirc some of the math wasn’t easy to duplicate.
GWQuote Reply
I don’t think Jeff Samardzija is a good bet at all to be traded this season. He may have a lot of trade value, but I think he can provide more than sufficient long-term value to this team to justify the extension I expect him to get within the next year.
The Cubs aren’t so far from legitimately contending that they shouldn’t be thinking long-term with certain pitchers. The Edwin Jackson signing seems like very clear evidence of this.
Mark PryorQuote Reply
Also, re: Samardzjia, long term– the significantly shorter track record notwithstanding, he’s probably a better pitcher than Edwin Jackson, who just got 4/$52MM. If Samardzija gets locked up to anything like a 4/$52MM contract, Cub fans should be really pleased.
Mark PryorQuote Reply
I just think a 98-win projection for this team underestimates how much they’ve improved their pitching this offseason. If you don’t think Garza or Baker provide a ton of innings this year, then maybe I see where you’re coming from, but I think it’s somewhat unreasonable to write those two off, or to project this team to prevent runs no better than they did last year.
The fact Nate Schierholtz is the only addition to this team’s offense, I think the Cubs are a really safe bet to be among the worst offenses in baseball once again this year. But they I think they’re gonna prevent runs a whole, whole lot better. Enough so that 75 wins (an improvement of more than a dozen wins!) seems entirely possible, and something Cubs fans should be proud of if it happens.
Mark PryorQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
This.
joshQuote Reply
Mark Pryor wrote:
Meh
joshQuote Reply
Mark Pryor wrote:
I would commit unspeakable acts for this to happen (dying laughing)
(I know it’s a typo, but seriously, 98 wins out of this team would make me (dying laughing) )
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mark Pryor:
Like you said, the offense is going to be brutal and I think it gets worse as the season goes on as they trade away Soriano or DeJesus (or both).
Plus, this front office is still prioritizing turning short term assets into long-term assets. Jeff Samardzija is a fine pitcher, but I think even the most optimistic people don’t think he’ll be an ace-type guy like a Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay. If everything goes as planned, they have three above average pitchers in Garza, Jackson and Lee. Garza has no trade value anymore because of the injuries and he’d have to perform like Halladay to get that to change before July 31. We just signed Jackson so he’s not going anywhere. So the only pitcher we have left that could secure top-level prospects with higher ceilings is Samardzija.
He’s more likely to stick around if he regresses a bit and then that doesn’t help the Cubs win more games.
I’ll admit that my prediction is based on being cynical (and maybe 98 is pushing it), but we can’t assume that all the good players we have will play well AND all stick around for the whole season. I just don’t see how this team avoids 90 losses, so that is 72 wins at best. I’d probably put money on 95 losses.
Aisle424Quote Reply
A 4/52 contract for Samardzija would be horrible. He earns less than 3 in arb 1 and will probably get about 6 next year if he’s as good as some expect and 9 the following year. That’s a total $18 million in arbitration over the next 3 years. Or $15 million in 2014 and 2015. Add two more years at a discount because teams get discounts for locking players up and at most you’re talking 4/40. At most.
dmick89Quote Reply
As much as I’d really like to agree with Mark Pryor or reluctantly agree with 424, I honestly can’t see anything less than 100 losses. The offense will be lucky to hit 125 HR. The defense will be ok
The SP may be an itty-bitty bit better: EJax > Demp, Scotts > Volstad et al. Bit remember the bullpen is horrid. 10 wins after Aug 1will be a coup.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
I’ll definitely take the under on 100 losses.
I actually think the pen will be better. They’ve amassed a bunch of live arms in aaa while adding takahashi, fujikawa, rondon, and probably villanueva in the bigs. not great, but better than last year, imo.
GWQuote Reply
Yeah the pen is better. I just know any excitement they manage to generate the first half will quickly dissolve into AAA tryouts the second half. I know that’s what they half to do, but it’s still annoying.
joshQuote Reply
Jackson is better than what we expected to get from Dempster last year, but not as good as what they ended up getting from him. Like GW I will take the under on 100 losses.
dmick89Quote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
http://boingboing.net/2013/01/21/rems-losing-my-religion.html
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Mark Pryor:
As Mark Pryor pointed out, the offense has not been improved much. But, it also seriously underperformed last year. Plus, we never knew which team was going to show up every day. It was like a Jekyll and Hyde team. One day they scored 12. The next day few days they couldn’t get anyone on, let alone score any runs. I’d hope this gets better, since the front office is pushing plate discipline and getting base runners. FINALLY someone understands how runs are scored!
I also agree that the team’s pitching should be way better, especially compared to the rotation after the trade deadline. My concern is that we will lose some of these pieces after the next trade deadline, and we will be right back where we were in the second half of last year, when the team finally started scoring a few more runs, but we gave them up in basket-fulls. But, I’d be surprised if Jeff S goes anywhere. The front office has been saying for a while now that he is the kind of pitcher they would build around. Garza would be more likely to leave, but he will need to prove that he has recovered before his trade value would be sufficient to get what we would want for him.
Long story short, we can guess all we want at this point, because that is all we are doing. Spring training will start shaking things out. We can only hope that the young players adjust, and the veterans perform to their ability.
wlcopperQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/22/the-cubs-have-released-some-pretty-amazing-conceptual-drawings-for-a-renovated-wrigley-field/
MishQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Bagwell’s house has mold? Biggio’s condo just dropped 50% in value.
GBTSQuote Reply
Interesting points made here about the conceptual vs. reality of renovation plans:
http://www.cubbiedoc.com/2013/01/what-we-know-and-dont-know-about.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ wlcopper:
what team were you watching? Every once in a great while they didn’t look like complete shit. That’s about as much good as you can say. That team was all Hyde. We know exactly what we have, a polished turd.
joshQuote Reply
Even when they won last year it felt like a garbage team
joshQuote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply