First base looks to be quite a bit rosier for the Cubs than catcher does. They Cubs have a budding star at the top and some very intriguing options at the bottom.
| Last Year | 2013 | Career | |||||||||
| Name | Age | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | pwOBA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
| MLB | Rizzo | 22 | 0.285 | 0.342 | 0.463 | 0.349 | 0.368 | 0.245 | 0.324 | 0.402 | 0.320 |
| AAA | Rohan | 26 | 0.290 | 0.330 | 0.449 | 0.338 | |||||
| AA | Bour | 24 | 0.283 | 0.360 | 0.455 | 0.368 | |||||
| A+ | Ridling | 26 | 0.238 | 0.300 | 0.370 | 0.310 | |||||
| Jones | 24 | 0.224 | 0.265 | 0.300 | 0.263 | ||||||
| A | Hoilman | 23 | 0.237 | 0.326 | 0.392 | 0.328 | |||||
| Cuneo | 23 | 0.252 | 0.339 | 0.392 | 0.333 | ||||||
| Rogers | 22 | 0.300 | 0.493 | 0.420 | 0.435 | ||||||
| A- | Vogelbach | 19 | 0.322 | 0.423 | 0.608 | 0.469 | |||||
| Shoulders | 20 | 0.250 | 0.342 | 0.447 | 0.370 | ||||||
| Rk | Gretzky | 19 | 0.304 | 0.372 | 0.330 | 0.342 | |||||
The league average 1B last year had a wOBA of .337.
MLB
Anthony Rizzo had himself a nice little half-season last year. I'd like to see some more walks, but I'm happy with his contact numbers (generally) and his power has developed nicely. He's a cheap, good, middle-of-the-order type of hitter. He is swing-happy, but as long as he can put a bat on the ball who cares? He also crushes off-speed offerings, so he's going to get hittable pitches. Hooray!
AAA
Greg, of Rohan is probably a Quad-A guy. He put up solid numbers last year, but it was his first taste of AAA at 26. I wouldn't hate having him as the backup 1B (and he bats righty, so he'd presumably platoon well with Rizzo), but his numbers indicate he's eminently replaceable. Blake Lalli was the primary backup to Rizzo but he's gone now.
AA
Justin Bour had a nice little season. He's still young enough to maybe be on the periphery (he'll be 25 in AAA this season) and he's shown ability at every level in his career. He could be a solid backup as early as late 2013/2014.
A+
Rebel Ridling is org filler at this point. He'll be 27, in AA, hitting league average, next year. Going to go ahead and pass on him. The first time I ever heard of Richard Jones was research for this article. It's the last time you'll ever hear of him, too: he's coming to a Home Depot near you.
UPDATE: Both of these guys were released. MLBTR has nothing on either of them, apparently they are THAT useless. Thanks to OV Platinum Member Chet Masterson for the tip.
A
Paul Hoilman is too old to be in A without absolutely dominating. He's a 2011 draftee, so the book isn't completely written on him, but he better get good in a hurry: 473 PA of .718 OPS ball from 1B is not so good. Ryan Cuneo was released by the Cubs when he couldn't hit himself out of Peoria. He will not be missed. Jacob Rogers brought the thunder in his first taste of professional action, putting up a .999 OPS in Arizona and a .913 OPS in Peoria. He takes a ton of walks. He should be a fast mover in the system; he's already 22 so he should have a pretty firm grasp of minor-league quality hurlers. He's a fringey-prospect but someone I'll be keeping an eye on.
A-
Call me crazy, but I'm not sure Daniel Vogelbach isn't the 2nd best prospect in the Cubs organization (Baez is one with a bullet). Vogelbach has a few years to get in shape to play first (and I've heard the first whispers that he could even end up at left field if he improves as rapidly as he has). I don't care about getting him to the outfield; if he plays at first, he could be a special hitting prospect. Using this handy tool (and assuming A numbers, since A- doesn't fit in there), Vogelbach was already better than Vitters was last year (dying laughing). He's got very good plate discipline. He makes contact. He's got legitimate plus-plus power, and that includes doubles power (he hit 21 in 283 PA last season). He's got one of the best 5 or 10 bats in all of the minor leagues, and the Cubs are lucky to have him (and 1B prospects are slightly thin at the moment, anyway). Rock Shoulders hit very well in his limited time, too. He's not a high-quality prospect, but he could put himself there with a nice season in 2013.
Rk
Trevor Gretzky sure looks like a bust. He's still only 19, but he has absolutely no power. He plays 1B and LF, neither all that well, and he's tall but not strong. He'll get his chances (7th round, 2011), but I'm not holding my breath.
All in all, this isn't a bad bunch of players. I'm not sure where I'd put these guys in a list of our top prospects, but Vogelbach is certainly one, with Bour and Shoulders getting some fringe-consideration at the bottom of the top 30.
Projected Rosters
MLB: Rizzo/Clevenger?
AAA: Bour/Rohan
AA: YOUR NAME HERE
A+: Rogers
A: Vogelbach (I'd love to see him start the season at A+ or even AA, but I'll take A+)/Hoilman
A-: Shoulders/Gretzky
I don't like keeping Shoulders at A-, but I do think it's where he'll start the season.
Comments
I feel like they’d get one of the NRIs or even Scott Hairston to back up 1B before they have to resort to Clevenger.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Agreed, but you never know. Someone is going to have to do it…
MylesQuote Reply
I’v always wanted to see Greg’s contract….so I could see the riders of Rohan.
P. HertzQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I really want to see Soriano do it just for shits and giggles.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Sammy wrote:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I’m curious to see how Rizzo does against lefties this season. He’s been terrible to this point in his career and if that continues a guy like Rohan could be valuable to the Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
As for Vogelbach, there’s probably no other Cubs prospect I’m more excited about. Javier Baez has a much better chance of success simply because he’s performed well at a higher level. He does scare me though. He’s not at all patient and we’ve seen too many times what happens to those guys when they get to the higher levels.
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Is that real? Sosa should have known better. People aren’t forgiving and Sosa shouldn’t have to explain himself anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
That was via his own Facebook page. I guess he’s one part truly exasperated and one part looking for sympathy, but I do feel bad for him.
Then again, I’m definitely biased.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This should have been in the running for catchphrases for the 2013 Cubs.
MishQuote Reply
It was legitimate. It was through MLB.com. I wrote about it over at my old blog:
http://424tales.blogspot.com/2010/07/mlb-gives-me-another-reason-to-not-buy.html
But it must not have been very successful because I don’t think they do it anymore.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I liked how he reached out to fans, asking their advice.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
(dying laughing) I liked that too. I basically told him to just keep being Sammy. People are either going to love or hate him, there’s really no in-between. I feel like it’s split right down the middle at this point.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Considering the talent at the MLB level and througout the minors, would you say 1B is one of the more healthy positions on this Cubs team?
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Let Sosa be Sosa.
EdwinQuote Reply
So I just bought a copy The Show 12 because it was $10. Then I realized I need an online pass even for the rosters. It’s probably worth $10 more to not have to pitch with Chris Volstad (dying laughing)
AkabariQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I see he’s getting his hands dirty (sort of) in the comments. Even if it’s only for one day, it’s more than Sullivan or Rosenbloom ever did.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
You guys should send this to the Chicago Bear Jew:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/25/of-course-you-want-a-yarmulke-with-your-favorite-teams-logo-on-it/
Rice on busQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
It’s most likely him dictating to his assistant. Spells too well.
Rice on busQuote Reply
I think Sosa should just build his own hall of fame, create an election committee of himself, and then vote himself in.
EdwinQuote Reply
Akabari wrote:
I absolutely hated that game. First baseball game I’ve bought in probably 6-7 years. I tried really hard to be good at it and even put it on Rookie level for my Road to the Show. My player had decent numbers at times, but what drove me mad is that it is literally impossible to distinguish pitches since you can see the spin of the ball. So basically you are guessing the entire at-bat.
Also, your player doesn’t get good fast enough. You are literally Trevor Gretzsky when you start out. It’s not fun to be a scrub, but apparently the makers of the game thinks everyone wants to scrap their way to the MLB. (dying laughing)
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Edwin wrote:
Absolutely, I would. I’m not sure there is a better 1B prospect than Vogelbach right now. Let’s compare him to the other top guys:
Singleton: He’s really good, there’s no doubt. He’s also much closer to the majors (and should break with the team in 2013). He just got popped for drugs #2, though. I’d take Singleton over Vogelbach, but it’s close.
Cron: He’s older by 2 years and handled his rookie league essentially the same as Vogelbach did. He’s also injury prone. He struggled in his second season at A+ (well, didn’t struggle but wasn’t incredible – .843 OPS). Vogelbach is better than this guy with the bat and doesn’t have the injury history.
Morris: Doesn’t draw nearly the walks that Vogelbach does. Is 4 years older and still in AA. He might taste the bigs this year, but he doesn’t have Vogelbach’s power and is almost as poor defensively.
Adams: Adams might be more powerful than Vogelbach. He doesn’t have the plate disclipline Daniel has, and has a spotty injury history, but is a surer bet to produce in the majors. It’s a coinflip to me; Adams is “safer” talent-wise but “riskier” injury-wise.
Dickerson: Nowhere near the hitting ability as Vogelbach. Isn’t a great fielder. Older.
Soto: Worse than Vogelbach in every way except body frame.
I’d say Vogelbach is no worse than 3rd or 4th among all 1B prospects even if he’s still 2-3 years from hitting the majors. He’s got very rare upside (truly elite power and a great hit tool). Mix that with some pretty interesting if fringey prospects and you’ve got a pretty good position.
MylesQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
Agreed. I always had x-box, and finally got a PS3 just last year. I was so excited to get MLB the show, but damn is it hard. Try adjusting the sliders to turn down the pitch speed, that’s helped me enjoy it more. I was too used to MVP baseball doing that color code thing for fastballs, breaking balls, off-speed.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Out of curiosity, and maybe this is something to summerize later, but which position do you think is in the worst shape right now, and which will be the hardest to fix? It seems like 3B and C are giant holes right now, and I don’t see many good prospects at those positions, or potential FA’s.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
I just use franchise mode on the veteran level, using the old school classic commands. I never advance to the higher level, but I can make the playoffs even with a mediocre Cubs roster.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Edwin: Yeah I’ve only played one game and so far I like it. It won’t let me turn off auto fielding yet for some reason, its locked. Maybe they make you play a few games or something. I figure I’ll play a few then go into a Franchise. Is the Road to the Show fun? If I have to start off as a Gretzky…
But hey. LaHair had 2 HRs in my first game, so…. (dying laughing)
AkabariQuote Reply
To all you MLB the Show players:
Make sure you are trying all the different batting options. They have 2 or 3 different ones and they also have it where you can try and guess the pitch and location. Guessing the location is tough but guessing the pitch is easier. If you can guess the pitch type, hitting becomes much easier. I like that it’s hard to hit in the game, makes it more realistic.
I agree about starting out real shitty in RttS. I wish they made it so that you can pick your prospect type and/or give you some points to customize your player, then send him through the minors. Either that or have different prospect levels like raw talent, power hitter, balanced, great fielder, power pitcher, finesse pitcher, etc. I think that would make it pretty cool. I love the game and I can’t wait for the ’13 to come out.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Akabari:
rtts is fun, but it can take awhile to reach the majors. Also, parts become frustrating. I hate fielding and baserunning. It also sucks that your player starts out slower than…some notoriously slow player. I can think of any off the top of my head.
The nice thing about rtts is you can pick it up, play for 20 min, and then put it down. It’s not like you’re committed to a 30-40 minute game. Plus, if you don’t like pitching, or don’t like hitting, it lets you just focus on whatever part of the game you like best.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Akabari:
Road to the Show is awesome. I usually have a pitcher and hitter career. It’s a lot of fun and you can do training throughout the year to increase your attributes. Also, during games they give you goals to accomplish and if you accomplish them, they give you points to increase your players attributes.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
In 2012 they do let you pick your prospect type and allocate points before you start in the minors. You also start with 500 training points. I like 12 rtts better than 09 (the other verision I’ve player).
Also, I’ve heard people say that hitting is more about waiting for good pitches to hit down the middle, as opposed to using guess pitch, but each to his own I guess. I think I suck at scoring runs because I keep playing as the Cubs.
Sorry to turn post into a mlb the show conversation Myles, I really like the Assume the Position series so far.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
Oh really? I didn’t get last years. I got the one with Joe Mauer on the cover. I get it every other year.
MuckerQuote Reply
http://deadspin.com/5979090/someone-actually-gave-adrian-peterson-an-orange-peanut
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Myles:
I guess since mb is the optimist on this site, I have to be the pessimist.
first base prospect lists typically don’t mean a whole lot, given how many guys will probably get shifted over there (Sano, Yelich, …?).
And Vogelbach does seem to have good plate discipline, but good lord, he’s had less than one season’s worth of data with the highest level represented being The Northwest League. I mean, Sickels seems to be the highest on this guy of the prospect experts out there (#4 in the organization) and even he felt that was going out on a limb.
GWQuote Reply
also, i should say that i’m really enjoying these posts, as well.
GWQuote Reply
This probably won’t format very well, but here is every player since 1995 to finish in the top 10 in OPS in the northwest league at 20 years old or younger (minimum 76 ab’s)
Yr/Name/GP/PA/OPS
2012 Dan Vogelbach 37 168 1.031
2012 Gioskar Amaya 69 317 0.877
2012 Marcus Littlewood 62 259 0.825
2011 Corey Spangenberg 25 121 1.08
2011 Joe Panik 69 304 0.868
2011 Zeke DeVoss 38 168 0.845
2010 Michael Choice 27 121 1.016
2009 Ryan Wheeler 64 280 0.999
2008 Dennis Raben 27 112 0.971
2008 Josh Harrison 33 144 0.97
2008 Drew Rundle 53 230 0.955
2007 Clayton Conner 45 190 1.026
2007 Greg Halman 62 265 0.968
2007 Tony Thomas 46 214 0.948
2006 Matthew Sulentic 38 162 0.888
2006 Chris Davis 69 280 0.876
2006 Russ Canzler 73 311 0.862
2006 Daniel Mayora 74 312 0.817
2004 Javier Herrera 65 293 0.948
2004 John Bowker 31 141 0.91
2004 Mark Reynolds 64 277 0.889
2003 Andrew Wishy 72 320 0.877
2002 Ismael Castro 66 311 0.863
2002 Julian Benavidez 50 215 0.933
2001 Garrett Atkins 69 299 0.846
1999 Ryan Christianson 30 124 0.949
1998 Oscar Salazar 28 121 0.925
1997 Dee Brown 73 339 0.968
1997 Doug Blosser 65 263 0.96
1997 Hipolito Martinez 65 260 0.958
1997 Jason Dewey 68 318 0.957
1997 Nick Leach 54 231 0.95
1997 Fernando Espino 64 296 0.914
1996 Rich Stuart 22 107 1.039
1995 Ben Grieve 72 316 0.92
1995 Dante Powell 41 190 0.893
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
That’s not an encouraging list.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
No. And I’m not trying to shit on him. Obviously it’s better that he did well in the NWL than poorly. My only point is that I’m not sure he deserves credit above and beyond what he’s already getting from the prospect gurus based on that superlative NWL performance.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’m hoping he proves to be the exception that proves the rule. Or something.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ GW:
Don’t get me wrong, he’s extremely far from being a productive MLB player. He just hasn’t done anything that would indicate he’s going to struggle. It would be hard for anyone to have performed better than Vogelbach has done so far (it remains a very open question if he can do it at a higher level, of which there are many).
On the other hand, I’m of the view that most prospects are going to flame out spectacularly. Through that glass, I might as well just take the guy with the best perceived hit/power tool, and that’s Vogelbach.
If I had to make a list of Cubs prospects right now, I think I’d probably put Vogelbach at 4 or 5, because he IS a 1B and Soler/Almora are CF. That’s a pretty huge deal. I also kinda like Dillon Maples, but that could be Kool-Aid. I like highschool pitchers with curveballs.
Edwin wrote:
I haven’t looked far enough yet, but I’d say at the moment that catcher is worst by far. You’ve got at least a credible prospect at every other position (if you consider OF as one position) in Villanueva/Candelario (though Candelario could VERY easily move over to 1B as early as this year), Baez/Alcantara, Watkins/Amaya, and Vogelbach in the infield, and like a hundred outfield prospects.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I don’t think that’s necessary. It’s not like all those guys were considered to be as good as Vogelbach by the scouts. I’m just saying I don’t think there’s a case for saying: “yeah, but sickels and callis and hulet and whoever else don’t realize just how productive he was in the NWL.”
GWQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
except for exst
GWQuote Reply
without considering exst, he’s at .320/.406/.632 in 310 PA. when considering exst (and I see no reason to leave it out) he’s at .287/.380/.567 in 421 PA. still pretty damn good, but it’s less than a season’s worth of PA at the lower levels.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
There could be a reason to leave it out. Obviously I don’t know what was going on, but ExSt is where people work on different things. No idea what Vogelbach was working on, but it may very well have greatly affected his overall offensive performance. If it’s a choice between adding it in as part of his overall career and ignoring it, I’d ignore it.
Your point about Vogelbach having a very small sample with which to evaluate him on is a strong enough point that I don’t think you need to factor in stats that may or may not reflect his talent level. The fact he was held back is additional reason for concern.
That said, I’m super excited about Vogelbach.
dmick89Quote Reply
GW wrote:
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
plenty of people work on things in rookie ball and all the lower levels, though.
all i’m saying is that given the very few at bats he has had so far, I will take whatever data I can get if I’m forced to make a judgement. the further removed he gets from that level, the less I would give it credence.
GWQuote Reply
There’s a difference between the kind of stuff a player may be focusing on in a more competitive league than one in which there is no official scorer. In my opinion it’s a much stronger argument to simply point out that there was a glaring enough hole in his game that he was held back at exst than it is to combine the stats. Besides, when combing the stats he still looks pretty awesome.
Regardless whether we agree here or not, he has a very small sample and it was done at the lowest levels in baseball. Based on scouting reports the guy can flat out crush baseballs. He’s also a 1st baseman so a lot of things will have to break in his favor.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing) I think we called this back when the cba was signed.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/25/report-mlb-is-investigating-the-age-of-cuban-shortstop-aledmys-diaz/
GWQuote Reply
Bryce Harper has infiltrated Jeopardy…
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/clown-bro-shows-category-jeopardy-073727133–mlb.html
Rice on busQuote Reply
That A-Rod contract keeps looking worse and worse: http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/8882259/alex-rodriguez-not-likely-miss-season-new-york-yankees-gm-brian-cashman-says
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Here’s an early candidate for dumbest quote of the year:
dmick89Quote Reply
Prince has been saying that stuff for a long time. He hates anything that gives people access to his music without people paying for it.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/26/3918528/junior-lake-ss-chicago-cubs-scouting-report
MishQuote Reply
Lendy Castillo ———–> DFA
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2013/1/26/3888666/cubs-under-the-radar-prospects-2013
I’d just like to note that in this shit article Tim Huwe names Justin Marra as a catching sleeper prospect – but not because of his .924 OPS in the Rookie League, but on the strength of his 2 GAMES AT BOISE. What. The. Fuck.
MylesQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Slightly dissapointed, but it makes sense. He’s wrong-handed as far as our fringe-pitching prospects are concerned, and he’s not as good as Rondon from a 2012 standpoint. No one is going to trade for him, but he might clear waivers. Here’s to hoping.
MylesQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
False
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I’m glad hockey is back. Blackhawks 5-0!
WaLiQuote Reply
I like Myles.
AndCountingQuote Reply
@ AndCounting:
Maybe you guys can bunk together at the next OV Convention.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Easy there, Cupid. I don’t like him like him.
AndCountingQuote Reply
http://www.tangotiger.com/index.php
dmick89Quote Reply
Late to this blog, but Richard Jones was released in June 2012 and Rebel Ridling was released in November 2012. Maybe you have seen him at Home Depot lately?
Rebel Ridling
Richard Jones
Chet MastersonQuote Reply
@ Chet Masterson:
AC likes Myles a little less now.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Apparently the Mets were waiting on the conclusion of the Upton sweepstakes before making an offer to Hairston. So… savvy move by the Cubs, I guess. Though they probably won’t open up a spot on the 40-man for another month or so, so the Mets might as well make an offer (dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
NOOOOOOO
I checked MLBTR for both of these guys and nothing came up. Need to be more diligent 🙁
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I didn’t know either was gone either, but I’m not sure I paid any attention to 1st base prospects not named Rizzo or Vogelbach.
dmick89Quote Reply
Joooooooooeee Maaaaaaaaather –> Minor League Contract w/ Phillies
Jeff Baker–> Ditto: Rangers
My guess is that Baker has a happier year.
SVBQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
I think you can be forgiven for missing the Tweet announcing Jones being cut. (dying laughing). For all we know, it might not even be true since a reputable site like MLBTR hasn’t noted it. Of course, it was through twitter that we learned about receiving Delgado in that awesome Dempster trade so it must be true. I can’t figure out what we got when we traded him to Ariz in the Upton deal though.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Sosa and Pryor in their respective primes.
joshQuote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply
what is the new shit here now.
moore leahQuote Reply