I know I said I probably wasn't going to do these this year, but I am going to change the format a little bit. I won't be combining 5, 6 or 7 projections to create an average. I will just stick to two: CAIRO and ZiPS. I doubt the average between these two will be that much different than they'd be if we added in several other other projection systems so it's really just a waste of time to include them all.
I intended to do these at each position only, but when I finished up Welington Castillo's projections, I realized it would be too long for one post. So we'll do them one at a time again.
The Cubs have a new primary catcher this season in Welington Castillo. The backup job will be determined in spring training and is between Steve Clevenger and Dioner Navarro. Navarro has to have the edge at this point seeing as his contract was guaranteed and they'll unlikely carry three catchers on the active roster.
A few years ago I was very excited about Castillo's future. He reached AA at the age of 21 back in 2008 and for a catcher, that's pretty good. He hit the bell very well that year in AA though he didn't perform that well at the plate in High A that same year. Still, I was excited that the Cubs a young catcher who had shown the ability to hit well at an advanced level for someone his age and position. The Cubs were set with Geovany Soto for the time being, but he'd be getting expensive before long and there was Castillo to take his place.
Back at AA in 2009, he regressed. He didn't hit well and there were reports that he was having difficulty behind the plate. He was till quite young, but I was hoping to see him build on his strong finish in 2008. He did get promoted to AAA in 2009 and hit quite well, but I've learned to be a little distrustful of stats in the Pacific Coast League.
He reached the big leagues for a few plate appearances in both 2010 and 2011, but the first meaningful playing time was last year and he took advantage of it. He hit .265/.337/.418, which was good for a .327 wOBA. That's a 101 wRC+. He was also slightly above average in fielding on both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, but Baseball Prospectus had him slightly below average.
Overall, in 190 plate appearances he was worth 1.2 fWAR, 1.2 rWAR and 0.5 WARP. His walk rate was a respectable 8.9%, but he did strikeout more than 26% of the time. He was also a bit lucky last season with his .348 BABIP.
I know a lot of people are very excited about Castillo, but I'm mostly curious to see which Welington Castillo shows up. At times he's been very good and at other times very bad. If he can handle the pitching staff and play well enough defensively, he probably has the bat to play the position even if he's not much of a hitter.
Below are Welington Castillo's 2013 projections.
| Castillo | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| CAIRO | 364 | 83 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 1 | .249 | .316 | .430 | .326 |
| ZiPS | 375 | 81 | 17 | 0 | 12 | 0 | .240 | .309 | .398 | .307 |
| Average | 370 | 82 | 17 | 0 | 13 | 0 | .245 | .313 | .414 | .316 |
I used his CAIRO projections and a spreadsheet SG from RLWY sent me awhile back to get Castillo's percentile forecasts.
| Welington Castillo | ||||||||||||||||||
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| 80% | 437 | 397 | 56 | 111 | 25 | 0 | 21 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 94 | 6 | 7 | .278 | .364 | .503 | .379 |
| 65% | 400 | 364 | 47 | 96 | 21 | 0 | 17 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 92 | 7 | 6 | .265 | .341 | .466 | .353 |
| Baseline | 364 | 331 | 40 | 83 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 88 | 8 | 4 | .251 | .319 | .429 | .326 |
| 35% | 328 | 298 | 33 | 71 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 83 | 8 | 3 | .237 | .296 | .392 | .301 |
| 20% | 291 | 265 | 27 | 59 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 78 | 9 | 2 | .223 | .273 | .355 | .275 |
The 80% forecast is always going to look nice, but it's more of a best case scenario. If Castillo reaches projections, he'll be a valuable player, but won't be an all-star or anything. There's nothing wrong with that. He makes league minimum so any value you get is a bonus.
At a .326 wOBA and 370 plate appearances, he'd be worth 1.9 offensive WAR. Up the PA to 400 and you've got a 2 WAR player. I figure he's more than likely below average at running the bases so if he's only average on defense he'll be worth a little under 2 WAR in 2013.
Comments
I’m surprised you’re such a fan of WAR for catchers. I feel like its shortcomings measuring defense for catchers makes it kinda useless…
Mark PryorQuote Reply
@ Mark Pryor:
I think the accuracy of fielding metrics for any position is pretty much useless. I haven’t added in defense the last couple years I’ve done this. I just stick to offensive WAR projections. Generally speaking, if I’m doing a projection, my WAR estimate is only offense. I know I mentioned defense, but I assume he’s average.
dmick89Quote Reply
I feel the same way about fielding metrics– mostly useless. Which is why I naturally just don’t have a lot of use for WAR.
Isn’t UZR utilized in the positional adjustment in WAR as well? Aren’t the run values derived there a result of UZR measuring the relative difficulty of each position? I believe this is true, and is an additionally problematic element of WAR.
Mark PryorQuote Reply
I’m OK with the positional adjustments. Those make sense and aren’t just made up, but rather real differences between positions when players have played multiple positions. Obviously each player is unique, but generally speaking I think they’re pretty good.
dmick89Quote Reply
My problem with fielding metrics like UZR and FRAA is that they vary so much from year to year. So do offensive stats, but it takes about 3 years of defensive stats to be as reliable as 1 year of offensive stats. I think career UZR and FRAA is for the most part accurate.
dmick89Quote Reply
Javier Baez ———-> spring training
BerseliusQuote Reply
dmick,
What are your thoughts on pitch framing, specfically in relation to the Mike Fast BP article? Still too far away to be useful?
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
He was at spring training last year.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Edwin:
I think it can be useful in the right hands (like Mike Fast and others like him). I think we’ll have a much better idea of the value of that for each catcher within the next decade.
I think there’s one author that publishes a list of catcher’s in pitch framing on an annual basis. I want to say he writes for either Beyond the Box Score or maybe Driveline Mechanics. Can’t remember the author.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Funsucker
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
He will probably get more than a plate appearance or or two this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
So I realized halfway through typing this that by ‘reaching projections’ you probably meant his baseline, but I’ll list the players with over 300 PA who beat Castillo’s 80th percentile 2013 projection last year:
Buster Posey
Carlos Ruiz
If he does pan out to that level, they’ll have a bat boy throw rose petals in his path on his way to the plate. He won’t hit his 80th percentile projections, however.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Yeah, I meant baseline. The 80% figure is fun to look at, but I think you’d have to be a fool to expect it. The 65% projection is within range and reasonable, but so is the 35%. He has a much, much better chance of reaching only the 20% forecast than the 80%.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
uncle daveQuote Reply
Where did the 2 or 288% meme come from? Is that an Al-ism?
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
It has to do with a math puzzle from a while back involving order of operations. If you do what seemed obvious, the answer was 2, but if you followed proper order of operations, the answer was 288.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Oh. I thought I read every word, but I guess I missed 2 or 288.
SVBQuote Reply
SVBQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/should-the-cubs-go-after-michael-bourn.html
dmick89Quote Reply
when are the cubs gonna give up on marmol blowing games for a few years now.
joekar369Quote Reply