Cubs Playoff Odds

In News And Rumors by dmick8938 Comments

The 2013 Cubs playoff odds are now available on Baseball Prospectus.

These odds are based on preliminary depth charts, with teams still having many roster moves to make before the season starts. Thus, they aren’t etched in stone, they’re etched in sand. And these are PECOTA’s estimates of what would happen if the season were played thousands of times. PECOTA is not infallible, and the season is played but once. It is a prediction, not destiny. — Colin Wyers

The Cubs playoff odds are a solid 12.5%. The adjusted percentage is 8.3%. PECOTA gives the Cubs a 7.8% chance of winning the Wild Card, a 4.6% chance they win the NL Central and a 0.5% chance of winning the World Series.

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  4. Xoomwaffle

    Edwin,

    There is no incentive on anyone’s part to create such a minor league system. The NCAA would be all against it, and it would take the NFL time and money to set up a minor league system, but they already have one. Even if they made one, I think it might help some players, but just like in baseball, for every kid who is helped by it, it would chew up and spit out so many more kids. I think those kids would suffer even more, because there are leagues overseas where you can make some money playing baseball and basketball, but there are not a lot of professional American football leagues outside of the NFL.

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  5. Mucker

    I think it’s bullshit that they restrict high school kids from going straight into the NBA or NFL. If they are ready, then why do they have to go to college? Unless theses colleges start offering degrees in basketball and football, what logical point is there for these kids, who want to be basketball or football players, to go to college? If they decide to make football their career to include playing then coaching, why shouldn’t they have that option?

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  6. Edwin

    @ Xoomwaffle:

    I understand that due to the money they make, the NCAA doesn’t want to change. And the NFL probably doesn’t want to actually have to take over the responsibility of developeing players when they can get the NCAA to do it for them. It’s not realisitc, but it’s what I think should happen.

    How would the kids who join the minor football leagues be any worse off than under the current system? They’d be able to devote their full attentio to football, instead of pretending to be students. They’d be able to be paid for their skills. If they don’t hack it in minors, at least they made some money. They could use that money to go to college, if college is what they want. Or tech school, or whatever. There would still be college football, so if they choose they could still go to college.

    I don’t understand the overseas comment. If they’re hell bent on playing football, they’ll play in Canada, or Arena, or semi-pro leagues. Otherwise, they’ll have to choose from the thousand of other jobs out there that don’t involve football.

    I have no idea how kids are worse off in my scenerio.

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  7. Xoomwaffle

    @ Mucker:

    Technically, you are allowed to go straight into playing. Brandon Jennings went to Greece and played for year, and I’m sure there is a way to play football right out of college.

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  9. Author
    dmick89

    Edwin wrote:

    I have no idea how kids are worse off in my scenerio.

    Most of the kids aren’t worse off, but a few are. I think the issue is that the NCAA is making huge profits at the expense of the athletes.

    Personally, I don’t have a problem with the way the NCAA does things with regards to scholarships and not paying players. How much is a player worth who goes to some piddly ass school in North Dakota vs the same exact player at Ohio State or Michigan? A lot more and it has nothing to do with the player. Those schools have built their brand over a century so I’m fine with how the NCAA does things. There could be some changes, but mostly, I’m OK.

    The issue I have is that the NFL and NBA have age restrictions. They’re using the NCAA as a feeder system and preventing adults from working in the field they’re best qualified to work in.

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  10. Xoomwaffle

    @ Edwin:
    At least in the current system, many of them are coming out with degrees that will open more avenues for different jobs. They also have many people who work with them to come up with plans for what they are going to do if don’t make it as a pro. I’m not saying it’s perfect, I’m just saying that it isn’t without merit.

    I may be wrong about the idea that there are more opportunities for baseball and basketball players to continue playing than football. I’m not sure.

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  11. srbutch5

    Not sure if everyone’s seen this before, but I ran across Mike Rosenbaum’s top 100 prospects (MLB Prospects Lead Writer)

    17 Javier Baez
    Overview: Baez put up big numbers last year to begin his full-season debut at Low-A Peoria, batting .333/383/.596 with 27 extra-base hits (12 home runs) and 20 stolen bases in 57 games. The then 19-year-old’s performance resulted in a late-season promotion to High-A Daytona, where he was overmatched and posted a .644 OPS in 23 games. Even though he makes lots of hard contact, Baez is a free-swinger who whiffs too often, as evidenced by his 69/14 K/BB last season between both Class-A levels.

    Offense: Right-handed hitter with potential for above-average-to-plus hit tool; raw power is an easy plus attribute; elite, plus-plus bat speed yields loud contact to all fields; 20-20 potential; will jump on velocity; extremely strong wrists and top hand; max-effort swing every time; lacks a feel for the strike zone and will chase too many pitches; needs to show some restraint; will need to improve pitch recognition; chases too many breaking balls; can be beat by quality sequencing; needs to work more hitter counts; aggressive base-stealer; secondary skills leave something to be desired.

    Defense: 6’1”, 205-pounder is a shortstop at the moment; addition of too much strength may prompt a move to third base; above-average athlete with smooth, natural defensive actions; speed may lose a grade as he develops physically; should always be at least solid-average; plus arm ideal for left side of the infield; high-intensity player who needs to employ a more cognizant on-field mindset.

    Final Thought: Baez’s bat gives him one of the highest offensive ceilings in the minor leagues, though it comes with a considerable amount of risk.

    2013 Opening Day Level: High-A

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  13. srbutch5

    39 Albert Almora
    Overview: Selected with the sixth overall pick last June, Almora was regarded as one of the more well-rounded and advanced high school players in the 2012 draft class. The outfielder surpassed expectations during his professional debut late last summer, as he batted .321/.331/.464 with 27 runs scored and 15 extra-base hits in 33 games and finished the season playing for Short-Season Boise in the Northwest League.

    Offense: Premium athlete who showcases all five tools; mature work ethic and advanced baseball skills; 6’1”, 170-pound frame leaves room for projection; above-average bat speed results in consistent, hard contact to all fields; quiet and efficient swing with little wasted movement; power will develop as he matures; should be above average by the time he reaches the major leagues; all-around offensive skill set highly advanced for his age; 20-20 offensive upside with above-average hit tool.

    Defense: Slightly above-average runner; demonstrates excellent instincts in center field through his reads, jumps and positioning; average arm strength that’s best suited for center field; above-average defensive outfielder with natural ability and an all-out style; high baseball IQ; mature on-field demeanor.

    Final Thought: The Cubs certainly won’t rush Almora up the ladder, though it may not take him long to reach the major leagues relative to other class of 2012 draft picks.

    2013 Opening Day Level: Low-A

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  15. srbutch5

    42 Jorge Soler
    Overview: After signing a monster contract with the Cubs last June, Soler, 20, impressed in his professional debut. Albeit a small sample, the Cuban defector batted .299/.369/.463 with 12 extra-base hits, 12 stolen bases and 19/12 K/BB in 34 games between the rookie-level Arizona League and Low-A Peoria.

    Offense: Strong, physical player at 6’3”, 205 pounds; mature frame requires little projection; ball absolutely jumps off his right-handed bat; dynamic bat speed and plus-plus raw power; extension and lift after contact; true power frequency yet to be determined; comfortable driving the ball with authority to all fields; approach was more developed than expected in pro debut; comfortable hitting when behind in the count; decent pitch recognition relative to stateside experience; swing can be rushed and choppy; timing mechanism and load will be simplified; premium velocity may exploit weaknesses at higher levels.

    Defense: Above-average runner who moves well despite size; range will be at least average and more than enough for a corner outfield position; plus arm is second-strongest attribute; ideal for right field; routes and reads improved during stateside debut this past season; still very raw regardless of the impressive small sample size.

    Final Thought: Soler may prove to be more advanced than expected this year in his full-season debut.

    2013 Opening Day Level: Low-A

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  22. srbutch5

    dmick89 wrote:

    @ srbutch5:
    Thanks for grabbing the summaries. I can’t stand that site. (dying laughing)

    I typically stay away as well. It doesn’t help that CNN now uses BR as it’s “Sports” section…

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  24. srbutch5

    Nothing outside of his bio on the site. It was a headline on CNN, so I had to take a peak.

    Mike Rosenbaum is B/R’s Lead MLB Prospects Writer. He is a 2008 graduate of Grinnell College (Grinnell, Iowa), where he studied history while captaining the baseball team during his junior and senior seasons. A self-proclaimed prospect junkie, he is the founder and editor-in-chief of TheGoldenSombero.com, as well as a former scout and senior writer for PrepBaseballReport.com. Born and raised in Chicago, Mike is a White Sox fan despite the fact that he now resides in Tarrytown, New York.

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  25. Edwin

    @ dmick89:

    The profits bother me, because it means schools are less interested in academics, and more interested in making sure their football team is bowl eligble each year. Most Penn state alumni/students don’t care where their engineering program rates in the nation, but they lose their shit over people trying to smear Joe Pa’s “good name”. I think that’s fucked up, if you really think about it, about what schools are really supposed to be about.

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