Now that I've done the AtP for all of the positional players, I've got my Top 15 prospects list ready. I did it all on my own, but the list is really similar to many of the others out there, with minor variations.
First, I'll explain my methodology. I first made a system from 59 (complete non-prospect) to 100 (potential all-time great). The number assigned to each person takes two things into account: the upside, and the bust potential. For instance, I have 75 as a MLB backup, but Junior Lake is a 75. His upside is more like an 85, but his bust chance is way higher than normal, so I settled on 75. I then went down the minors and found 21 people that I thought were greater than 59. 6 missed the cut (Justin Marra, Rock Shoulders, Greg Rohan, Zeke DeVoss, Ronald Torreyes, Stephen Bruno, and Jae-Hoon Ha).
The grading system is as follows:
100 is a potential inner-circle HOF that has a very low chance to bust. Maybe .5 prospects a year would get this rating, and none would this year.
95 is a potential HOF that has a low to mid chance to bust. This is probably the top 4-6 prospects.
90 is a potential MVP candidate at some point. This is probably the top 20 or so prospects.
85 is a potential All-Star candidate at some point. This is probably the top 50-60 prospects.
80 is a potential MLB regular. From this point, it's hard to put a number on the total prospects, but consider that there are 750 major league players at one time.
75 is a likely MLB backup.
70 is a potential backup, or a player without high upside but with a relatively high floor.
65 is a potential backup with low upside but a potential low floor.
60 is a longshot MLB backup but with some skill that makes them interesting.
Without further ado, here's the list.
#1 (90) Javier Baez SS
Baez is young and has a relatively high chance to bust for someone as good a prospect as he is. He doesn't have the greatest patience and might not be a plus defender anywhere on the infield (though he's rapidly improving at short). That being said, he's got truly elite bat speed and good power. He's young, arrogant, and good. If he repeats his 2012 performance at A+/AA, he'll be in the majors next year at just 20 years old.
#2 (87) Albert Almora CF
Almora might not ever garner MVP votes, but for a youngster he has a seemingly high floor. He can play great defense at CF even now, and is so advanced for the leagues he was in last year that he almost never struck out. He is the most likely of the Big Three prospects to actually play meaningfully in the majors, albeit with the lowest upside.
#3 (85) Jorge Soler RF-CF
Soler has 70 power (on the 20-80) scale, which is rarer than it sounds. He might have the only 80 tool in the whole organization with his arm. (EDIT: This is more apt of Junior Lake. Soler does have a fantastic arm, but Lake's is better.) His batting eye needs a little work, but not much, and he can run enough to play CF (but hasn't, inexplicably). He's got a chance to bust out for sure, but the upside is there.
#4 (82) Dan Vogelbach 1B-DH
#4 (82) Brett Jackson CF-OF
Vogelbach and Jackson are tied at 4 in my list, though they are completely different prospects. Vogelbach is a huge bust risk with his body (and the quick changes that he's making to it). He could lose his power with his weight or eat himself out of the league. That being said, he's got great plate discipline and hurts balls real bad. He's a defensive liability but could be an incredible force in the lineup. Brett Jackson is the other way: he can play good defense at any outfield position, but is a threat to strike out 40% in the majors. He works counts and has okay-ish power, and at worst right now he's a passable 4thOF. If the new swing really works, he could play in a few All-Star games, and if it doesn't, he's still got the toolset of a backup.
#6 (80) Gioskar Amaya 2B
I'm a huge Amaya fan. His plate discipline has always been solid (9% walk rate), and his power has developed every year. It's not common for 2B to put up ISOs of .200, but Amaya did last year. He's got to work on fighting his strikeouts, but the combination of speed, power, and patience make Amaya a potential great at 2B in the (distant) future.
#7 (78) Arismendy Alcantara SS
Alcantara doesn't walk very much, but he also plays the more premium position (relative to Amaya). Alcantara is also a switch hitter, so if he can cultivate that skill he could be slightly more valuable. He was injured last year, but all signs point to him being 100% now. I'm banking on him picking up where he left off in 2012.
#8 (77) Jeimer Candelario 3B/LF
Candelario's biggest concern is his potential demotion to 1B from 3B. Candelario is young and he has good plate discipline for his age, but his drastically lower BABIP in '12 showed people what Candelario's true talent level was more like (and it was still high-ish at .327). Candelario is a guy who could really shoot up this board later on, but he's also equally likely to just be another dork at 1B/LF that busts out at AA.
#9 (75) Logan Watkins UTIL
#9 (75) Dave Sappelt OF
#9 (75) Marco Hernandez SS
#9 (75) Christian Villaneuva 3B
#9 (75) Junior Lake 3B
#9 (75) Matt Szczur CF-OF
75 is basically where prospects are too diverse to dissect meaningfully. Each of these guys are at different stages at their prospect-hood. I think Hernandez and Lake have the best chance to be above-average MLB starters, but they also have the best chance of busting out and never making it. Sappelt and Watkins are almost both shoo-ins to log some time at the Majors (Watkins have a better chance of starting at some point in a DeRosa role), but are unlikely to ever be more than primary backups. Villanueva and Szczur are somewhere in between those two groups. I can find something I like about each of these guys, and another thing I don't like about all of them. You could put these 6 guys in literally any order and I couldn't honestly disagree with you.
#15 (73) Josh Vitters 3B
Vitters still has a chance to make it, but boy was he awful in his first cup last year. His poor play in 3B was topped only by his ineptitude at the plate. He has a pretty swing and a history of making progress the longer he stays at a level, but he's only worth anything if he can stick at 3B and he can more than double his BABIP from last year (double it, his OBP "climbs" to a Barney-esque .308). It's hard to believe he's only going to be 23 next year, but he's had 2,227 professional plate appearances in his career. It's hard to imagine a great change in his skills now.
Comments
Sorry to hear about your mishaps on your bike ride to work, Myles.
http://now.msn.com/boy-injured-when-bicycle-frame-goes-up-his-butt
WaLiQuote Reply
CHI would probably get a 3 (comp pick after the third) if Melton walks. Not much he can do if they franchise him, though.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
If we tag him, then the Bears have a little less than $5 mil to spend this offseason. That ain’t gonna get it done. I think the Bears need to consider letting him go, taking that comp and drafting his replacement.
MuckerQuote Reply
Post: well-considered rundown of organization’s top prospects. First comment: bicycle goes up guy’s butt. Second comment: Bert Melton’s contract status. I love this place.
uncle daveQuote Reply
As noted, nice rundown, Myles. I’ve babbled about this before, but it’s often tough to rank prospects given their varying chances of busting out. I’ve always liked how the rankings at Hockey’s Future handle it, with ratings from like 9A to 3E or something, where the number is the upside and the letter is the bust factor. (I suppose that would be more appropriately noted as 36DD or something, but there you go.)
On Vogelbach, I wouldn’t worry too much about him losing strength as he gets into shape. Having gone from fat to fit and back to fat again, I can tell you first-hand that fat doesn’t help with much of anything athletically. If he were a catcher, maybe he could block the plate more effectively, or if he were a pitcher maybe he’d knock down more balls up the middle, but that’s about it, right?
uncle daveQuote Reply
I think Vogelbach’s weight issues are a tad overblown. He’s already shown in one offseason the ability to lose a good amount of fat off his frame and looks to still be very strong. Vogelbach didn’t have potential 80 power because he was fat, he had it because he was strong. I’m sure he’s on a regimen that is looking to decrease his body mass but keep or increase his strength. It’s not the hardest thing in the world to do. It’s quite possible that he becomes even stronger while losing 50+ lbs. Ordinary people do it all the time and at older ages. I’m sure a 20 year old professional athlete can find the way if he’s determined. He also looks to be quite agile for a guy his size so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him playing LF for the Cubs in 3-5 years.
/Unexpected surge of optimism
MuckerQuote Reply
Yeah exactly. Its about diet and training, and having access to such a medical staff and the money to eat healthy food makes it a lot more possible than people like us who don’t have all the downtime. And its not he has to use his power to make up for a complete lack of discipline or something.
akabariQuote Reply
Vogelbach never struck me as particularly fat. More like protofat, where he had great potential to be fat. It’s possible that modern society has completely warped my perception in this regard.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Aisle424Quote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
WaLiQuote Reply
I think the concern for Vogelbach’s weight is more about the future than right now. I think it’s a legitimate concern and clearly the Cubs are looking at it that way. They’re trying to tackle it right now knowing that as he ages, losing weight will be more difficult. Being overweight doesn’t mean he won’t be any good, but he’s probably going to be better if he keeps his weight down.
dmick89Quote Reply
So this would have been Bryan LaHair’s score from 2003-2011?
fang2415Quote Reply
The cubs logo prosthetic eye commented on some threads ago made this week’s SI sign of the apocalypse. (dying laughing).
Guess they read OV.
mobile svbQuote Reply
Japan beat Brazil 5-3(!)
Well done Brazil (manager: Barry Larkin)
Chinese Taipei (is there any other kind of Taipei?) beat Australia 4-1, and the Netherlands put a cork in Korea shutting them out 5-0. GO ON YOU ORANGE STONERS
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Gordo:
/Don’t Shoot the Clevenger
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
They don’t have enough backups. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I’m kind of baffled that there’s been talk about having Clevenger back up Rizzo. Why back up a LHB with another LHB?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
For some reason I thought Scott Hairston had played some first base before, but I guess not. He seems the obvious candidate to spell Rizzo, especially against lefties.
Having said that, I want Rizzo to start like 158 games this year, lefty/righty be damned.
GBTSQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/01/carl-crawford-shut-down-with-forearm-tightness-status-for-opening-day-in-question/
/CrawfordWatch
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
It’s you like subscribe to the news feed on google for Carl Crawford. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/03/02/gods-wrath-watch-starlin-castros-tight-hamstring-is-now-inflamed/
“I’ve ‘ad worse.”
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I’d like to see the data on that. Perhaps it is like the “every man over age 80 has some level of prostate cancer” claim.
SVBQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
B is just doing his part to remind us how not-bad Soriano’s contract has been.
SVBQuote Reply
I think I’ll name my Fantasy team the Epstein-Barney Virus. Might as well erase any doubt of my geekitude.
SVBQuote Reply
Just as in real life, here I am on a Saturday night talking to myself. l-o-l, c-o-l.
SVBQuote Reply
Now THAT’S a team name. (dying laughing)
MylesQuote Reply
I wish I had skills for this sort of thing
MylesQuote Reply
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/mike-trout-agent-speaks-angels-renew-contract-20k-012449993–mlb.html
I get that he’s getting paid diddly compared to what he produces, but he’s also two years away from arbitration. I think the most Albert Pujols got before he hit arb was $900K, however that was in year three. Stanton is getting paid just a bit more than Trout in his third year of pre-arb.
I feel like the Angels are waiting it out, to see how Trout does this season before they give him a substantial raise prior to his first arbitration year. But given what’s known about MLB cost control I don’t get why people are freaking out THIS much.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oh, and harsher PED penalties. Good lord MLB.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
While I think Trout (or his agent) complaining is not a great move, PR wise, it doesn’t make sense for the Angels to not give him a little more than they have to. You are throwing him an extra 100k for the chance to build goodwill with a player that, when he’s a free agent, could have a 10 year deal waiting for him. Wouldn’t you want to give yourself the best possible chance to extend him before he reaches the open market? An extra 50k here or there is significant to a player making 300k, but not a big deal for an organization like the Angels.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I agree with you about that. $100K is chump change. But he’s also 21 (?) and making more than most 21-year-olds will at this stage, not to mention the fact that he’s got a chance at a monstrous payday since he’ll be 26 (!) when he becomes a free agent. Just seems like sour grapes given that they know how the salary structure is set up before he hits arb. But if he has another year like last season and still gets dicked over, then yeah, he should definitely complain.
What’s the largest single-season pre-arbitration contract in MLB history? I guess I’ll ask Google.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
Dave, I sent you an email about this to the address you used in the site. Not sure if that’s your email or not so I thought I’d mention it here. If you don’t get it, please send me an email (use the contact link at the top of the page).
dmick89Quote Reply
Samardzija ———->opening day starter
BerseliusQuote Reply
Also
Garza ————> out till May 1, per Muskat
BerseliusQuote Reply
New shit
http://obstructedview.net/facepalm/daily-facepalm-3-3-13-shark-named-opening-day-starter-garza-probably-to-miss-a-month.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
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Sidney LadayQuote Reply