How long does it take to change your swing? Is it even possible to change in your 20's? The answer to these 2 questions will probably tell you all you need to know about Jackson's future with the Cubs.
Brett Jackson was drafted in the 1st round of the 2009 draft, at 31st overall. He worked his way up many prospect lists in the ensuing few years, putting up .400 wOBAs essentially in every year in the minors. Jackson displayed great plate discipline every year (he walked from 10 to 16% each season) and blossoming power (8/12/20 HR), and maintained a slugging percentage of around .490 every year.
The only problem with his game was his strikeouts, which hovered around 25% a year. The year he finally got called up, he had been striking out roughly 1/3 of the time, and he wasn't exactly tearing up the minors, either. In the majors, his strikeouts ballooned to a comical 41.5%. That's not a sustainable approach to the plate. Jackson is going to have to evolve as a hitter, most likely, to stick as an everyday player.
Offense
I've already outlined Jackson's basically stellar minor league numbers, but I'll give another quick rundown. He climbed a level in every season, and finished his AAA career at a .269/.353/.502 line. In AAA, he walked 12% of the time and struck out around 31%. I've never seen him in person (in the minors), but his admittedly small sample of major professional baseball gives us some additional insights.
First, he struck out 59 times in 142 plate appearances, "good" for 41.5% of the time. Using a sample size calculator, that 41.5% mark is anywhere from 30.8 to 52.2 as a "true" rate of strikeouts (99% certainty). Even at the extreme low end, that's a really high mark for someone of Jackson's skillset (only 14 players last year had a rate of 30% or higher, min. 250 PA).
That being said, it's relatively easy to diagnose Jackson's issues. He swings at the right pitches: he only offers at 23.9% of pitches outside the zone (league average: 29%). He swings at roughly the same percentage of in-zone pitches; however, he doesn't make contact with many of either. The league contact average is 79.7%. His contact percentage of 64.2 is the third lowest among players with 100 PA or more last year. There are two ways to be successful with a contact percentage that low: be Josh Hamilton and swing at 59% of the pitches with prodigious power, or only offer at pitches in the zone with a great amount of power. Jackson doesn't have the power to get pitchers to respect him, so he'll have to learn to make better contact. If he just became merely bad at it, his profile would rise from 4th OF to pretty good CF quickly. Hopefully his new swing helps out with that.
Defense
Jackson has always profiled as an above-average CF. He doesn't have great footspeed, but he does have good speed and he makes great jumps on the ball. He has just an average arm but throws with accuracy and will make most baserunners respect his ability to get the ball in.
Summary
I'm going to put two players side by side.
| o-swing% | z-swing% | swing% | o-contact% | z-contact % | contact% | |
| Jackson | 26% | 65% | 41% | 49% | 74% | 64% |
| Dunn | 24% | 64% | 41% | 50% | 80% | 70% |
As you can see, contact in the zone (and the lack of power) is what separates Jackson from successful high-K major leaguers. Every other part of Jackson's game is major-league ready, and that includes his plate discipline. For all of Jackson's problems, he still got on base at a higher clip than Darwin Barney last year, with a wOBA greater than one Luis Valbuena. I remain very, very skeptical of the ability to retool a swing in one off-season, but if Jackson can do it (or just find some more success with his old one), he's got the ability to be a productive major-league CF for a decade to come.
Comments
Berselius wrote:
I agree with this. I’ll admit at the time I thought it was a dumb trade, but that’s before MB converted me to Prospect Atheism.
GBTSQuote Reply
The trade, in a vacuum, was fine. But there was no point in getting Garza at that time. He was not a missing piece and while he was cost-controlled, he cost more than the prospects we traded for him and it netted zero benefit to the organization. At least when the Cubs made the asinine trade for J-uan P-ierre, they actually felt they were a centerfielder away from contention. I still hated the deal, but at least there was kind of a justification in the timing. There was no justifying the Garza deal in the spot they were in, it was purely smoke and mirrors.
Aisle424Quote Reply
If they had flipped Garza after his career year when people were still buzzing about his ability to perform in the AL East I think it could’ve been a great trade and as people have already mentioned it’s not like we really needed him at the time. Maybe Hendry was trying to protect his job?
Also, JD Sussman over at FG thinks that Soler will be a top 10 prospect next year (or he already is? his responses in the comments section are kinda confusing): http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jorge-soler-baseballs-next-big-propsect/
MJKQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Since he was drafted out of college, his progression through the minors is less impressive than it seems. He’s 24 now so he’s only got a couple more years where he can realistically be expected to improve. I’d be surprised if he’s still in the majors in 6 years, let alone 10. I get the impression that this is a make-or-break year for him in the bigs. I also get the impression that he’d have a very short leash if the team wasn’t expected to suck this season….
For whatever it’s worth, he’s struck out 3 times in 15PAs this spring.
26.2cubfanQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
It appears that the only bunt finalist who will be with the big league team this year is the video guy.
(dying laughing) (dying laughing)
mobile svbQuote Reply
@ mobile svb:
Would anyone be upset if he replaced Navarro as backup C?
GBTSQuote Reply
@ mobile svb:
We’re looking for a third baseman….
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Great write up on bjax, but what does he eat?
BottleasmokeQuote Reply
Between Jackson’s marginal contact improvements and Stewart’s 150 PAs, this is going to be a rocking season! The real question is whether Castro is going to pull a Cub and be hurt/vaguely-underperforming-all-season-and-blaming-an-injury.
woo hoo!
joshQuote Reply
Bottleasmoke wrote:
Well, he felt good enough about his diet to nominate himself as a wellness champion.
MJKQuote Reply
Keith Law has some thoughts on Jackson’s new swing and other Cubs notes.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/law_keith/id/9015732/breaking-brett-jackson-new-swing-mlb
It’s an Insider article so here’s the part about Jackson:
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ MJK:
Yeah, Garza should have been dealt after 2011, but for some reason they wanted way too much and were stuck with him.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ mobile svb:
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Bottleasmoke wrote:
More importantly, does he know where to get lunch in Houston??
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think they were banking on SPs being overvalued. They gambled and lost.
joshQuote Reply
Cubs lose
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Yeah, I’m afraid Goldstein’s assessment may have been right: it’s not a swing mechanics issue; he’s just not good at hitting baseballs.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ MJK:
But he lied about his weight! (dying laughing)
By the way, I eat to live, and it hasn’t helped me lose any weight.
SVBQuote Reply
Brooks Raley appears to be on the way to opening a roster spot…
SVBQuote Reply
I’m staying out of The Americans forum thread for now because I haven’t started watching the show and don’t want the spoilers. But for those watching it, should I start? After 6 weeks, is it still worth it?
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Yes. It’s been fantastic so far.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ SVB:
I’ve really enjoyed it as well. The acting is great and it’s already been renewed so you won’t be getting invested only to have it crap out after a season.
MJKQuote Reply
@ SVB:
I agree with dmick and MJK. I only started watching it because of suggestions here, and glad I did. If you didn’t have a link, here are the first 5 full episodes: http://vod.fxnetworks.com/watch/theamericans
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
I also throw my lot in with those pimping The Americans. Right now it is narrowly edging Justified as the drama I most look forward to week-to-week.
MishQuote Reply
It’s been 8 years since I’ve posted a Batman-related link, but now this new evil rises, and Gotham needs its hero (in other words, here’s a link about shit from The Dark Knight)
20 Things You Didn’t Know About The Dark Knight http://ow.ly/2vgVVp
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Fuck slideshows.
WaLiQuote Reply
Shitty analysis this way!
joshQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I still enjoy Justified more. I just love the characters. However, The Americans has been better and that’s saying a lot. Justified is one of my top 2 or 3 favorites.
I think you have to go back to Deadwood to find a show with as many fun characters to watch as Justified.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://xkcd.com/314/
Not a slideshow.
Rice on busQuote Reply