[Billy Beane and Kevin Towers] operate, as ballplayers do, without a fear of failure. This year Beane found too many phone calls that came his way that sounded like this: "I have interest in one of your players and this is what I'm going to give you for him."
"That's not deal-making," Beane said.
It's name-your-own price. The art of the deal has been replaced by the science of the deal…
I don’t know to whom Billy Beane was specifically referring to in the above quote, but I always imagine it was Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman, maybe even Jed Hoyer. I know it wasn’t Jeff Luhnow, who wasn’t a general manager when the quote was made, but I get the impression that had he been, it still wouldn’t apply.
There is only so much we can truly know about how a front office operates and does business, and just about all of it we deduce from outcomes. Who was drafted and signed? What trades were completed? To a lesser extent, the rumor mongers fill us in on who has been talking, but it’s always a little shady and a lot vague. For my money, this was the true genius of Moneyball, the book. Oh sure, the hook was the ascription of mythical powers to a handful of analytical techniques, but the meat was immersion inside a general manager’s world during free agency, the draft, and the trade deadline. Today’s hardcore baseball fan spends an inordinate amount of time putting himself in the GM’s shoes, but has surprisingly little information about what goes on there.* Many of our favorite analysts have even worked in front offices, but are silenced by unwritten codes of conduct and clearly written confidentiality agreements. They frequently tell us how much we don’t know, but rarely give specifics. The quote above is pulled from a rare gem written by Tom Verducci that puts those of us who care way too much at least in the neighborhood of the GM’s office. Here is another great one from Bloomberg Businessweek, of all places.
*One of my favorite all time experiences as a sports fan was attending NBA summer league games in 2005 in Minneapolis. My friends and I happened to sit directly in front of then Milwaukee Bucks GM Larry Harris during one of the games. For about two hours, we eavesdropped on conversations with colleagues and assistants as well as phone calls with people around the league. Harris talked about decisions he made in the draft (Ersan Ilyasova over Ryan Gomes because he was “younger and longer”), who he was regretting missing out on (“Kleiza is looking fantastic so far”), and other minutia. It was completely lacking in any groundbreaking information or scandalous gossip, and it was wonderful.
If Theo and Hoyer had a child, he'd apparently look like Val Kilmer
Despite all this lack, my mind is convinced it has the full picture of who Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are and how they operate. They are misers that drive hard bargains. Not unfriendly, mind you, but cordial, professional, and uncompromising. They have absolutely no qualms about asking the moon for players that are obviously playing above their talent level, and they will relentlessly work the phones in search of a mark. Negotiating with them will not be easy or fun. You may get the impression that they know something that you don’t. “I mean, they have all that expensive analytical technology on their side … That has to count for something, right? For goodness sakes, former colleagues publicly worry about getting fleeced by Theo.” I imagine other GMs sigh when Theo or Jed gets on the phone. “I want what they are selling, but this isn’t going to be easy… Cancel all my golf outings between now and the deadline, this thing is gonna go down to the wire…I would rather be negotiating with Theo’s stalker, to be honest…”
Theo and Jed are driven by a singular, overriding goal: to acquire impact talent in a world where it’s increasingly unavailable. They recognize that their job depends on one thing only, turning this thing around as soon as possible. The public trust is not going to last long, so the sooner they can build a solid foundation, the better. To get there, a lot of things are going to have to break in their favor, and if a few business relationships are damaged in the process, that’s just the cost of doing business. “After all we ask of our players: to work harder then anyone else, do the little things, always compete, how can we possibly justify not doing the same? And if other teams don’t value their players as well as we do, whose fault is that?”
And despite his portrayal in Moneyball as all-knowing and a little bit conniving, I don’t think Billy Beane is like that. After all, there was a little pushback in the industry following the book’s publication, but it was more from talking heads than anyone else. Kenny Williams was unmercifully portrayed in the book, but it didn’t stop him from continuing to trade with Beane. In fact, Beane still pulls off as many trades as anyone, enough to make me think the portrayal was at least incomplete.
I think Beane is a lot like Jeff Luhnow. Luhnow was hired this past offseason by the Astros into a situation that makes for natural comparison with the Cubs. Both teams stink. Both are in big markets. Neither can count on imminent relief from the farm system. Both regimes are taking their teams through an organization-wide rebuilding process. Both seem to be on the cutting edge of analytics.
Yet Luhnow’s approach seems to contrast with Thoyer’s. He didn’t make a big splash in international free agency. Heaven help the team that tried to keep up with the cubs in chasing Cubans, but even in the capped IFA market the Astros eschewed the top prospects and signed a handful of lesser known players, whereas the cubs invested heavily in two big names. In the draft, the Cubs paid overslot for the guy they thought was the best player in the draft, while the Astros underslotted Carlos Correa with the first overall pick and as a result were able to lure supplemental pick Lance McCullers away from a strong commitment to Florida.
Which brings us to the trade deadline. Luhnow wasn’t doing much at all on Tuesday; he was already finished. My mind has him pegged as reasonable and easy to deal with. He knows he doesn’t have a lot to sell, so he takes advantage of any opportunity that presents itself. He moves early and isn’t concerned about winning every deal. After all, acquiring top prospects is pretty damn impossible these days. “Why not just focus on the prospects that we like, rankings be damned, get as many as we can, and hope a few pan out. Instead of wasting time haggling, lets make these moves as quickly as possible, put Cordero in the closer role, and guarantee ourselves the number one pick next year.” Other teams enjoy dealing with him and have a good idea of what to expect; they know they can turn to him first if they need to get something done quickly. Even famously abrasive internet personalities fawn over their experiences working with him.
These caricatures are certainly wrong to some extent. And Luhnow probably has stricter budgetary restrictions to consider than the Chicago duo. But I think there is a valid comparison to be made here. Both started out with poor major league talent. Luhnow made six in-season trades, Thoyer five (by my count, including the Byrd deal and buying Germano). The Astros acquired 14 prospects, the Cubs 5.
Which is the better strategy? My gut is going with Thoyer. I mean, I can’t believe they got Arodys Vizcaino for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson. On the other hand, with Thoyer types seemingly propagating around the league, maybe there’s an opportunity here for someone with a more old-school way of doing business.
Comments
Sounds to me like Beane is chafing from some role reversal.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Great read. Who were the quotes come from?
WaLi22Quote Reply
The Reds seem to be winning a lot of games lately.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
+1 LSA forgot the meme’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So apparently this Villanueva kid likes to hit homers.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I just saw Pujols do something I’m not sure I’ve ever seen him do before. 2-0 count in an obvious situation in which he’s being pitched around with Trout at 3rd and 1 out. Low and outside and he sticks his bat out there and flies softly to RF to get Trout in. He wasn’t really trying to hit the ball. Just sticking the bat out there to get it in the air.
mb21Quote Reply
I think Luhnow has mostly been trading crap. Wandy Rodriguez is the exception and I think he’s underrated, but the fact I think that probably means he’s not all that valuable in a trade.
I’m interested to see which draft philosophy pays off the most. Hopefully it’s something the Astros keep doing so we can see how it works over several years.
Great writeup, GW.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
It was the 1st inning.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I think he’s still pressing, trying to live up to that contract.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
So Dempster has already given up a homer. He should get used to that. Especially in Arlington.
Mobile RodrigoQuote Reply
Thanks for the kind words, all.
@ WaLi22:
The opening quote is from the Verducci piece. The quotes within the body are just a device, imagined reactions to my caricatures.
gw 22Quote Reply
@ Mobile Rodrigo:
Its kinda weird seeing both he and Soto playing together for someone else
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ Mobile Rodrigo:
He was nervous that 1st inning, left a lot of balls up in the zone, some missed badly. Probably realized after the Rangers scored a quick run back that the game wasn’t over. He’s used to being a Cub and when you get down 2 you may as well shower and go home. Threw some nasty pitches in the 2nd. It’s weird watching this game considering tv’s focus on the batter/pitcher. All you see when Dempster is on the mound is Dempster, the batter and Soto. It’s like watching a Cubs game except there are better players all around them. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Dempster was blindsided by the AL and has requested to go to the Dodgers.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
It’s really weird. It’s even stranger when you factor in the crowd noise. It’s like it’s the 2008 Cubs.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Similar uniform colors don’t help, either.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Wilson just got bailed out the by the ump on a 3-2 pitch with the bases loaded. Should have been a walk, ump called it a strike. Didn’t matter that much as Young just drove in 2.
mb21Quote Reply
Soto up for the 2nd time this inning (singled to lead it off
mb21Quote Reply
Holy screaming eagle shit (wait for strike 3): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZBdPn9r1hc&feature=player_embedded
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Looked like Soto hit it about as hard as one can without getting the ball out of the park according to Gameday.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Eephus?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
It’s too bad I can’t watch. I’d like to see that.
Mobile RodrigoQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I believe that was what they call a “plus curve”
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
deepest part of the field, just shy of the fence.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mobile Rodrigo:
You get the benefit of it being two teams fighting for a division title and it’s two very good teams. Plus, there’s Pujols and Hamilton. Then you’ve got Trout while Olt’s making his big league debut.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
I wouldn’t know what to do with that pitch either (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Weighted random number generators get nervous?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Demp is really struggling, but still has the lead.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
First pitch he threw was over Trout’s head. A couple pitches later Soto was giving him the same calm down signs he often gave Z. He was definitely nervous.
Hasn’t been nervous since and has struggled the last 2 innings.
mb21Quote Reply
rought night for Dempster.
mb21Quote Reply
Slugfest eh.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
More like a curve that flipped a middle finger to every living physicist on its way to the plate.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sy3lJIxyZ60
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Recalcitrant Blogger Nate wrote:
As they say in the old country, “Indeed” (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
ZING
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Carlos Lee told a funny joke.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Either that or told them when dinner was.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
The other day we were talking about the age of college kids when they enter the draft. I was thinking that the draft eligible freshman, which is rare now, might become more common in 15, 20 years or more. As more parents redshirt their children (hold them back from kindergarten) the age of a freshman is going to increase. I wonder if the draft eligible freshman becomes as common as the draft eligible sophomore if they’ll make changes to the draft.
Then again, the rules are probably going to be different by then anyway so it doesn’t matter.
mb21Quote Reply
Villanueva had a great Cubs debut. Not so much for Brigham.
mb21Quote Reply
I was hoping both Henricks and Villanueva would be sent to Tennesse. At the very least I wanted to see Hendricks at AA.
mb21Quote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
If there’s no strategy in the AL I couldn’t have just seen back to back pinch hits.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That’s amazing! That’s the same combination I have on my luggage!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
PAY NO ATTENTION TO THAT MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!
/DH haters
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I’ve also seen some mid-inning relief changes tonight. So. Much. Strategy.
mb21Quote Reply
It’s a significantly different game in the AL. The infield was in with runners on 2nd and 3rd and the pitcher pitched around the batter to load the bases. In the NL they’d come up with some strategy in which the infielders would play closer than usual, but not in, and they’d be careful with the batter, but not pitch around him. Very different strategies.
mb21Quote Reply
What?! Reliever doesn’t do the job and he’s taken out. The AL is just trying to copy the NL now. It’s so obvious.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
They must be surrounded by Assholes.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Well, it is Wrigley Field, so….
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Touche’…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Geo!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
MB hasn’t had enough time to snark lately. Or maybe it’s the Woodford Reserve.
SVBQuote Reply
(dying laughing) how Cubs would it be for Geo Soto to turn out to be the jewel in the pair trades between the Cubs and and the Rangers? (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
fixed
SVBQuote Reply
Don’t look now: Soto’s BA is over .200
SVBQuote Reply
Good thing Texas got Dempster so Oswalt could win a game.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Don’t tell me when to look
BerseliusQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
To be a draft eligible freshman, you would have to be 21 (or 45 days until 21) at the day of the draft. There is no way in hell I am purposely holding back my kid so he can be a 20 yo HS senior.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
If my kid is a 20 yo HS senior, chances are he flunked a grade or two and isn’t going to college.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I’m just pointing out how redshirting children may affect college aged athletes. It may have no impact but my guess is if you have parents who feel their children have to be superior to other kids in the class that these are the same parents who have their kids taking batting practice 5 hours a day.
mb21Quote Reply
There is already the occasional draft eligible freshman http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=dwyer-001chr&mobile=false
There will be more if the trend of redshirting continues.
mb21Quote Reply
In a lot of ways, the first quote on this post reminds me of the column Phil Rogers wrote once lamenting how the GM meetings used to be awesome drunk fests where GMs showed up still drunk to the Rule 5 draft and all deals were made on cocktail napkins. Now he said they suck because they were ruined by the genius GMs and their laptops and fancy educations.
Chet MastersonQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I’m not going to lie, I have thought about when I have kids to start them late rather than early so they are older for the grade. But that’s because I was 17 when I graduated HS which kind of sucked, especially for playing sports. But I wouldn’t hold them back 3 years.
I’d be afraid my kid may have sex with a freshman and be charged for statuatory rape (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Chet Masterson:
Exactly. Beane sounds like he’s telling these damn kids to get off his lawn.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
What I’m saying is that each draft there are a number of draft eligible sophomores. Quite a few. If parents are holding their kids back until their older then there will not only be more draft eligible sophomores, but more draft eligible freshmen. Is it enough that will matter? I have no idea. It’s relatively new, or at least new in that it’s being done quite frequently so we won’t know for some time and in all likelihood the draft is considerably different by then anyway. The kids being held back aren’t being held back because of academics even if some parents try to argue it is. They’re being held back in communities in which athletics are very popular and extremely competitive. They’re being held back to give them an edge athletically. This may not matter at all. It may mean that these are the kids that are more likely to be draft prospects. It might now. I have no idea.
Because of this redshirting, which I’m guessing happens in communities in which athletics are highly important leading to more scholarships and players drafted (just a hunch) in various sports, the age of these players will be older than they have been. The kids being redshirted could be the kids that have zero chance of that. I have no idea and no way to know. All I know is if the age of the graduate is higher the draft eligible freshman becomes more common. Common in that it will happen all the time? No, but common enough that going to a 4-year school binds them to that school becoming irrelevant? Probably not, but maybe.
mb21Quote Reply
WaLi wrote:
I hear that!
Oh wait
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I don’t think Beane is too broken up about it. As GW pointed out, he still makes tons of trades. I think it was just an observation and an interesting one in that we can see how front offices have evolved in some small way. I don’t think it says anything about Beane. It’s two sentences.
mb21Quote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
That can happen now. I’m pretty sure it has and I think it happened at the school I graduated from a couple years after I graduated. 18 year old and 15 year old had been dating for a year (17 and 14) and the parents got all pissy right after he turned 18. Don’t remember how that turned out, but the way I always heard it was that the parents hated the kid from the start and saw this opportunity to break them up.
mb21Quote Reply
MishQuote Reply
If anyone is looking for a quicker way to kill brain cells than drinking turpentine, you can click thru to the original article from BTF:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/coppack_theo_what_have_ya_done_for_us_lately#When:13:41:08Z
MishQuote Reply
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/do_some_teams_have_better_scouts_than_others/
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mish:
What the fuck was that?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
When I was over 18 I went out with someone under 18. I won’t say what the age diff was but it wasn’t a year or two.
Nothing bad happened to anyone, although I shudder to think that it could have. I assume based on the similarity of words that there is a statute of limitations on statutory rape.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I think (at least in Florida) there are age limitations. So it is not automatically anyone over 18 having sex with anyone under 18 is rape.
I had to look this up because my brother was dating a younger girl (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
@ mb21:
My thoughts exactly.
gw 22Quote Reply
little league shit is up: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-elmers-glue.html#comments
WaLiQuote Reply