We’ve reached the phase right before Spring Training where it’s mostly claims and minor league contracts while the residue of the free agent barrel lingers until teams and agents finally settle on something. For all intents and purposes, the roster is set (very similar to what we did last time, minus some DFAs and outrights and what not) and the only real questions are at the margins. For example:
- Who will be the backend starter(s), especially if Kyle Hendricks isn’t going to be ready for Opening Day, or ever?
- Who gets the last couple bullpen spots?
- Who is the pitching depth ready to be called up in case of injury/ineffectiveness/Act of God?
We will stick with the pitching theme for this post, as we determine which 13 guys likely get listed on the lineup card come Opening Day, and who their backups are on the taxi squad if a call-up is warranted.
The Rotation
Based purely on gut and the fact that he basically pitched like we thought he would by the end of the season, it seems pretty clear that Marcus Stroman, barring any setbacks, will be the Cubs’ Opening Day starter. I will list the five guys (not the burgers) I believe will be in the rotation on day one, and we can look at taxi squad spot starters later.
- Marcus Stroman
- Jameson Taillon
- Justin Steele
- Drew Smyly
- TBD (Hayden Wesneski or Adrian Sampson as the placeholder)
I think the top three are likely set in stone, and I also don’t think the Cubs sign Drew Smyly just to throw him in the bullpen, so that makes sense as a top four, with David Ross potentially switching guys around to alternate handedness within a series.
I say “TBD” for the number five spot because while it makes sense that it should be Hayden Wesneski (and again it’s not Hendricks simply because he is rehabbing, otherwise I think they let him start the year on the active roster as a courtesy and also because he can’t be outrighted without permission), I can see a situation where they keep Wesneski stretched out on a regular rotation in Iowa while someone like Adrian Sampson shows what he did last year wasn’t a fluke. We might also see Keegan Thompson in this spot, but I think he worked better in the bullpen as a long reliever than as a starter. So if Wesneski gets this spot, that completes the rotation, but if he doesn’t, he’s in Iowa as he has options remaining (see AZ Phil’s chart for the others as I refer to them later on in this post).
I do like that with this rotation, they generally induce plenty of groundballs and keep the ball in the park, which plays to the defense that the Cubs have assembled, particularly with the shift restrictions. Having Gold Glove-caliber defenders up the middle should help the rotation keep the runs against numbers down, and since few of these guys have blow-you-away stuff, inducing grounders and converting them into outs should help them stick around into the sixth or seventh innings more often.
The Bullpen
We get eight spots in the bullpen assuming a five-man rotation, at least until September or in doubleheaders where they get an extra guy. No more LOOGYs because of the three-batter minimum, so these guys have to be able to sustain at least to the end of their inning. Here’s a list of the eight-ish guys, with no regard as to their actual role in the order they are presented.
- Adbert Alzolay
- Adbert has no options remaining so this is his year to prove himself before he is arbitration eligible. Adbert has thrived in a relief role where before he was kind of a meh starter, so this makes sense for him.
- Brad Boxberger
- He’s one of the free agent signings this offseason and they’re going to give him plenty of runway to show what he has left in the tank, which if he can pitch as well as he did last year, is quite a bit. Boxberger’s deal was relatively inexpensive so this is probably one of the spots that can go to an internal option if the Cubs are forced to cut bait, which is obviously not ideal so let’s not deal with that.
- Brandon Hughes
- The Cubs have a paucity of capable left-handed relief options, so this is pretty much a lock for Hughes, who did very well as Grandpa Rossy’s primary (and often only) lefty guy. Which probably means the Cubs should sign another lefty, so keep reading.
- Michael Rucker
- Depending on whether he eventually gets DFA for another signing (see below), Rucker does have options remaining so this spot is probably in flux.
- Keegan Thompson
- Thompson was one of the more reliable long relief guys after he made the full transition to the bullpen, but he might be able to function in a piggyback capacity with another bullpen guy (probably Adbert) if necessary.
- Rowan Wick
- If Wick regains a form that we saw just a couple seasons back, then he likely finishes the season in the bullpen. If not, he does have one option year remaining.
- Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Sampson
- Estrada pitched a few times at the tail end of the season and struck out a third of the batters he faced. Sampson made a number of starts that were, shall we say, shrouded in mystery because based on his repertoire he probably shouldn’t have gotten the results he did, but the results are the results. Both have options remaining so this spot is also fluid.
- Insert free agent LHP here
- There are a few lefty relievers still waiting to find a new home, including former Cub Andrew Chafin, whom I think the Cubs should prioritize if they do want to try. The Cubs have already outrighted Anthony Kay so it would seem kind of goofy if they had to put him back on the roster, at which point they would no longer be able to outright him without permission. I think this is a free agent signing because aside from Hughes, there are no other left-handed obvious relief guys on the 40-man roster and that doesn’t include the lefty starters in Steele and Smyly.
The Taxi Squad
This represents everyone who is currently on the 40-man roster, who still have options remaining and/or the Cubs don’t care if they bail after a DFA, and who hopefully won’t suck (in this guy’s opinion anyway). Keep in mind that the maximum number of times a guy can be yo-yo’d back and forth between the minors and MLB is five, and that pitcher must stay in the minors for at least 15 days (except in case of injury replacement), so they’ll have to be creative with reliever usage and phantom IL stints. This won’t include the ones I’ve mentioned above already.
- Javier Assad
- A late-season starter, Assad had some success in his role although at times I thought he was inefficient, didn’t necessarily show off anything magical, and might have gotten away with some good luck. But he is still on the roster for a reason, as even a guy like this who can eat some innings without being shelled can be valuable.
- Ben Brown
- The return in the David Robertson trade, Ben Brown was protected from the Rule 5 draft and seems to be one of the potential call-ups should a spot start be needed.
- Codi Heuer and Ethan Roberts
- Still recovering from Tommy John surgery, Heuer figures to be a bullpen boost once he is healthy midseason. Similarly, Roberts was doing well until his own injury and hopefully regains that form when he fully recovers.
- Ryan Jensen
- Jensen was also protected from Rule 5 despite not having pitched above Double-A. I only list him because he’s on the roster and might be someone the Cubs want to look at come September.
- Kyle Hendricks
- I wouldn’t count on Hendricks doing much this year due to his recovery from a shoulder injury, but we’ll see what happens.
- Caleb Kilian
- I feel like Kilian stays in Iowa to figure out his command issues for a bit before they give him another shot, but I do expect to see him in Wrigley at some point assuming he does figure it out, because the stuff is filthy if he knows where it is supposed to go.
- Julian Merryweather and Anthony Kay
- Lumping these guys together because I think they try to outright Merryweather prior to DFAing Rucker or whoever else to accommodate whoever else they decide to sign, but Merryweather has a live arm and just needs to figure out how to make that fastball work for him and not get consistently destroyed. Kay just got outrighted so they could keep him in the organization, so I expect to see him get a shot later on in the year if he shows out.
That represents all the names on the 40-man, and we haven’t covered the guys who are lurking in Iowa. Most of the Iowa roster, as it stands, is filler and former top picks like Brendon Little, along with a bunch of reclamation projects, so there might be some diamonds down on that part of the farm without having to raid Tennessee just yet.
I would be interested to know your list of 13, but we’re still a few weeks from Spring Training, so maybe we will take a wait-and-see approach. Although this pitching staff is probably not as sexy as some others, I imagine they’ll at least be competent, so hooray for the plan!
Comments
Pitchers and catchers start officially reporting just after the Super Bowl, whee
https://www.mlb.com/news/spring-training-2023-workout-dates
Rice CubeQuote Reply
No judgment on my part, the social media experience is different for everyone, for myself it’s because I still have enough self-control and overall control of whom I follow and want to see, but the moment that changes I think I’ll scale back similarly to how I’m just not on other networks quite as much. I think for many people they have had to deal with horrible experiences, which explains the exodus (Mastodon is ok but it’s super weird too so I haven’t been able to get into it even if I maintain an account) and the precipitous drop in ad revenue. I think I just stay there to see where all the cool people I follow end up going afterwards and then I’ll head there.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
As if on cue:
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/01/26/the-chicago-cubs-arent-done-yet-making-moves/
Looking at MLBTR list, the folks I might be interested in were I smarter and running the team:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/2022-23-mlb-free-agents.html
Gary Sanchez (probably too expensive and not sure how good of a catcher he is anyway plus the Cubs already have too many random guys who can stand at 1B, but that bat seems like it could rebound)
Donovan Solano (I feel like he would work in matchup situations but then again that’s why Patrick Wisdom exists)
Jurickson Profar (but where would he even play since he’s primarily OF? I don’t think he’s been in the infield since two years ago)
Zack Greinke (he probably goes back to the Royals but this would be so fun)
Any of the LHPs I mentioned, particularly Chafin, Matt Moore, and possibly Will Smith as long as you keep his wife’s name out yo mouth
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think the Cubs have a better shot at treading water/winning lucky the first half of the season and making a big move at the deadline than finding a difference maker shopping for deck chairs at this point. I mean, they might make another move or two (I can see them getting Chafin) I’ve just stopped caring. Enough of front office games, let’s play ball.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Spring training in a month, woohoo!
Agreed re: adding at the deadline
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Interesting take from Cory Wade:
I hope that the new rules at least try to rebalance the athleticism that we like to see in the game along with the analytics of “hit ball hard and far” and “miss bats”
https://live.jotcast.com/chat/live-chat-with-former-mlb-pitcher-cory-wade-14866.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
He kinda introduces two different arguments: effective baseball isn’t always the most entertaining baseball, and does data steer us too far in the boring direction; and is a comfortable pitcher a better pitcher?
andcountingQuote Reply
Wondering about whether or not a WBC stint messes with Seiya Suzuki and the other Cubs who are also participating:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
I think the points are related, because boring baseball is when there’s not enough offense being generated, or the action is limited because you’re either hitting the ball over the wall or right at a guy who knows to stand there. That is also worsened by the pitchers throwing with more velocity and funk, especially if they have time to recover. I think the new rules try to combat that a bit by encouraging more basestealing, by reducing the amount of time between pitches that the pitcher can use to recover, and generally getting a few extra guys on base because their grounders actually got through. The reduction of recovery time means the pitcher probably has to take a bit off and can’t shake off as much, which might give the offensive players a bit more of a chance and directly generate more excitement via balls put into play. I like homers and strikeouts too, but gappers and athletic defensive plays are good too!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I wanted to think of stuff to write but I’m out of ideas until MLB/the Cubs actually do something, so…bleah
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
Rice Cube,
This has been Theo’s point too right? Analytics have been effective, but funsucking.
Not sure he said it like that though.
Aside from the inability to simply swap the 2b and ss that I complained about a couple posts ago, I like the new rules.
BVSQuote Reply
When can teams start putting players on the DL? As soon as P&C report?
BVSQuote Reply
I guess Hendricks will be having this kind of season:
https://youtu.be/7hx4gdlfamo
I still think Hold is the likely outcome, despite RCs pessimism.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
Per Cub Reporter’s memo, yes –> https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3538
Keep in mind that this is from AZ Phil’s document from a decade ago but I don’t think the rules have changed much particularly if MLB.com’s glossary page doesn’t even touch on any of this, figure they would have mentioned something had anything changed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Actually I guess he keeps the same document updated so if anything had changed we would have seen it updated in said document. I assumed you meant the 60-day IL since the Cubs need to clear out some spots in case of random additions, which may comport with what Bryan at BN was saying re: certain pitchers (i.e. a Chafin) waiting to sign until that spot could be cleared with the 60-day IL move.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I wouldn’t even be that annoyed about analytics optimizing for 3TO if it meant we’d get more crazy high strikeout games, but we’ve only had two with 18 or higher (from a starter) since 2015 because managers have gotten a lot more cognizant of the third time through the order penalty.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
We won’t know until this plays out, but I figure the pitch clock potentially reducing max-effort deliveries and more pitch-to-contact type pitching to keep guys fresher longer into the game might get more starters through to the later innings when they finally decide to empty the tank and maybe that also negates some of the 3TO penalties because suddenly it’s like “oh shit he’s bringing it now” if he makes it that far. The profiles of what the Cubs have right now is more inducing ground balls and managing contact than strike everyone out, anyway, so maybe that was part of the plan all along.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yup.
Heuer and Hendricks can go on right away. That makes 2 spots for relievers or one reliever and a legit bench bat.
BVSQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I remember that being one of the hallmarks of early to mid-career Verlander. He’d get through the order a couple times before dialing it up to 98 later in the game. So much fun to watch.
PerkinsQuote Reply
BVS,
I think it’ll be the two TJS guys in Heuer and Roberts, Hendricks they might backdate because they want to see his progress during the spring rehab first, but you’re right that there are at least two spots that should be available for use. If they think they can sneak Merryweather through waivers for the outright then they can even delay those decisions until later.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Perkins,
The way I think about it, if 100 normal, thoughtful pitches can get you through seven innings where 100 max-effort pitches only gets you through 5, I think you take the former just to save wear on the bullpen particularly with the roster and option restrictions now. Also makes sense to protect your pitchers.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I was thinking they’d DFAd Roberts and resigned him, but that was Weick.
BVSQuote Reply
MLB just released their prospect rankings
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-100-prospects-list-mlb-pipeline-preseason-2023?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
The usual top 3 of PCA, Alcantara, and Davis, with PCA leading the pack at 28, and that’s probably it for the Cubs in the top 100 but plenty of just-missed guys
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Exerpt from mlbtr obit on Gary Peters ( not the Senator from Michigan):
Don’t think the shift and pitch clock will bring back these types of numbers. Wow.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
I wasn’t around for the days of the four man rotation, but those type of numbers look like a product of it. That’d be cool to watch.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
It seems back then most players would “tough out” any nagging pains or actual injuries, and also most of them didn’t throw 95+ so that probably helped some. I think today’s players are more cognizant of how important their health is and will report even minor aches and pains, and organizations want to maximize performance and protect their investments. Which makes you wonder just how valuable a guy who can give you 180 innings over about 30-35 starts in the season is, but apparently it’s very valuable and as always I prefer the player get paid than the team just hoarding money.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The name is familiar:
Ah, this guy –> https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duffety01.shtml
Seems worthwhile, too bad he’s not left-handed though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
Interesting article on Dansby Swanson becoming a leader after some mental wellness coaching –> https://theathletic.com/4129601/2023/01/27/dansby-swanson-leadership/
Here’s to the intangibles turning into something tangible
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I often wonder (but haven’t analyzed too thoroughly) the impact of survivor bias on how we perceive older generations of players. Everyone remembers Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver, but I bet there are a couple dozen guys who flamed out after a couple years for every one who consistently hit 250 innings.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I’m gonna guess that the “workhorses” we know about are impossible standards to live by because they got by on some mutant UCLs and pure luck that they didn’t get injured more than whatever they might have been able to hide. Which is similar to how lots of fans get pissed because an otherwise solid player isn’t hitting like Mike Schmidt all the time (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Today was probably not the day Ice Cube was referring to, but it was still a good day
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Is there something significant about today that all these signings and extensions are being announced?
Today, coincidentally, is International Holocaust Remembrance Day, and it most likely is unrelated (I hope)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Oh wait, they start arbitration hearings on Monday, so that’s probably it.
My sympathies to those who may have lost family in the Holocaust and my admiration to the survivors who continue to tell the story to drown out the deniers.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Will Carroll says Mahomes’s ankle is gonna be fine! https://www.thelines.com/patrick-mahomes-high-ankle-sprain-injury-expert-chiefs-bengals-afc-championship-2023/
*bets house on the Bengals winning*
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I haven’t heard from that dude in ages. Holy crap, what an idiot.
andcountingQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
DeJesus was my favorite player when I was a kid. Maybe because I my Granddad could only pronounce his name as in English, so it was funny, and because Grampa appreciated good D.
Rick Reuschel was on the Cubs about that time too and Gramma was always disgusted when they put “Hamburger” in. Guess she thought he cut too much of a softball figure.
Of course, it didn’t take us too long to get over losing DeJesus, but I did still check his name in the box scores in the paper.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
My very first Cubs-induced emotional wound was inflicted by the news of that trade. “WHAT?!?! THEY TRADED DE JEEZUS?!?!” I exclaimed. His name had up to that point been my only source of entertainment from watching baseball (aside from the animated cub/bear that accompanied the “The Cubs are coming out of hiiiiiibernation” jingle).
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I was a bit delayed, I was sad when they let Sammy Sosa go
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Letting Maddux go was my first really sad Cubs moment, but I was fortunately too young to comprehend its enormity. The next one was 2003.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
That one was definitely rough. The first really deep wound for me was ‘84. Losing game 5 broke me (I was 9). I can’t talk about that experience out loud without at least starting to cry. Same with 2016 game 7 but for different reasons.
andcountingQuote Reply
I still can’t watch any of 2003 at length because that was just a mega soul punch
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I’ve watched NLDS game 5 from 2003 a few times over the years and that’s a happy memory. I just like to forget there was another series that followed it.
PerkinsQuote Reply
andcounting,
If you were an Indiana boy back then, it’s too bad you didn’t live next to my Grandparents so you could listen to Gramma cuss about Hamburger Rueschel is a proper Methodist way. That would’ve added to the DeeJeezis joy.
BVSQuote Reply
Probably relevant to our overall conversation
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/rockies-owner-dick-monfort-questions-padres-spending-highlights-mlbs-biggest-problem-in-the-process/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Philly & KC –> Superb Owl
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
So no Dallas, New England, Brady, or Rogers? 2 thumbs up.
BVSQuote Reply
One of us
One of us
One of us
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2023/1/29/23577258/travis-kelce-video-cincinnati-mayor-jabroni-chiefs-vs-bengals?utm_campaign=sbnation.socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=sbnation&utm_source=twitter
Rice CubeQuote Reply
MLB relative lack of action = forced headlines, i.e. extend Happ & Nico, trade Madrigal –> https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/the-opener-extensions-middle-infield-player-chat.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I didn’t say that it was *my* house.
FYI dmick you will be getting a visit from some repo movers later this week.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Unless it’s a sure thing where I can win back a piddling amount of money, I usually don’t bet on these sporting events (or do any gambling beyond the occasional lottery ticket)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New schedule-related shit –> http://www.obstructedview.net/early-ish-preview-of-the-2023-cubs-schedule/
Rice CubeQuote Reply