In Part I, we looked at rates of runs and homeruns in the various Double-A leagues along with some peculiarities of the Southern League. For Part II, I wanted to compare other aspects of play in an attempt to gauge the overall improvements in talent at AA.
Control
I mentioned in this in the A+ post, but pitcher control shows significant improvement at AA, as measured by hit-by-pitch rate.
| 2011-13, 3-Year Averages | ||
| League | HBP% | |
| A | Midwest | 1.26 |
| South Atlantic | 1.40 | |
| A+ | California | 1.29 |
| Carolina | 1.38 | |
| Florida State | 1.26 | |
| AA | Eastern | 1.17 |
| Southern | 1.16 | |
| Texas | 1.23 | |
Dmick mentioned that he would be interested in seeing data on wild pitches as another measure of control. I have tallied wild pitches and passed balls and am showing it here on a per baserunner basis, where baserunners are estimated as H+BB+HBP+ROE-HR. What we really want is WP+PB per pitches thrown with at least one runner on, but I think this is a decent estimate.
| Wild Pitches + Passed Balls per 1000 Baseunners, 2011-2013 | ||
| A | League | Rate |
| Midwest | 72 | |
| South Atlantic | 73 | |
| A+ | California | 62 |
| Carolina | 64 | |
| Florida State | 54 | |
| AA | Eastern | 55 |
| Southern | 51 | |
| Texas | 59 | |
Interestingly, this measure does show significant improvement from the A to A+ levels, which wasn't evident in the HBP data. There is also a decrease from A+ to AA, though not as large as the A-A+ jump.
Defense
For Defense, I’m again looking at unearned runs as a percentage of total runs.
| 2011-13, 3-Year Averages | ||
| League | UER% | |
| A | Midwest | 16.7 |
| South Atlantic | 15.3 | |
| A+ | California | 13.3 |
| Carolina | 14.4 | |
| Florida State | 14.0 | |
| AA | Eastern | 12.3 |
| Southern | 13.1 | |
| Texas | 11.9 | |
Again there’s a pretty steady decline across levels. Defense steadily improves throughout the minors.
Minor League Walk Rates
While there is not a clear trend in walk rates in the minors, the Southern League routinely checks in with some of the highest in baseball. Its rankings among the twelve full-season leagues since 1998: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd.
| 2011-13, 3-Year Averages | ||
| League | BB% | |
| A | Midwest | 8.7 |
| South Atlantic | 8.7 | |
| A+ | California | 8.8 |
| Carolina | 8.6 | |
| Florida State | 8.4 | |
| AA | Eastern | 8.7 |
| Southern | 9.4 | |
| Texas | 8.3 | |
| AAA | International | 8.8 |
| Pacific Coast | 9.0 | |
I’m not sure what to attribute this to. In the absence of other information I would go with the umpires, though I can’t find any reports of them having egregiously small zones.
My instinct is that playing in a league with higher than average walk rates is a good thing for Cub hitting prospects, who always seem to be singularly impatient. This is especially true if the BB’s are the result of a tighter strike zone. I don't know what the downside is for being rewarded more frequently for taking pitches. However, I do think it’s something to keep in mind when evaluating Cub prospects. For its part, the FSL seems to consistently be below average in the amount of walks issued, so prospects making the jump from Daytona to Tennessee may appear to be making progress in plate discipline whilst sporting an identical approach.
This year, Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez stand out as players whose walk rates I personally have been encouraged by during their time in the Southern League. I also seem to recall Brett Jackson having a pretty ridiculous walk rate one year at Tennessee. The context needs to be at least factored into those performances before attributing changes completely to an improved approach. Likewise, we should probably cut pitching prospects in the SL a little slack. Not that the Cubs have had many of those recently; Kyle Hendricks was unaffected.
Conclusions
The Double-A leagues are less distinct in their offensive environments than the Advanced-A Leagues, though the Texas League is the most hitter-friendly and the Southern League the least. Like most of the leagues we have surveyed, runs are fairly similar to the big leagues, with homerun rates varying considerably.
| 2011-2013, 3-Year Averages | ||
| League | (HR/CON)% | R/G |
| Eastern | 2.8 | 4.4 |
| Southern | 2.6 | 4.3 |
| Texas | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| MLB | 3.6 | 4.3 |
The Southern League has a significant homerun split between the North and South divisions, and as a whole tends to feature higher walk rates than other minor leagues.
Next up is Triple-A.
Comments
From the previous thread…
@ Aisle424:
That’s an awful rotation though. Jackson is a number 3 and Wood a number 4. I’m not sure any of the others are even starters at this point. I think we have different opinions of most of those pitchers. I’m hoping that none of them are in the Cubs rotation next year. I’d also like to think the Cubs are hopeful of this too.
Rest of season projections for those guys (ZiPS and Steamer)
Jackson: 3.65, 3.68
Wood: 4.20, 4.53
Arrieta: 4.54, 4.07 (no idea why Steamer thinks this, must be with such a short season left and those can get goofy)
Baker: 3.79, 4.21 (numbers are about useless since he hasn’t pitched regularly in forever)
Rusin: 4.76, 4.44
Villanueva: 4.02, 3.9 (as a reliever so add a run as a starter)
That rotation might just do it for me. There’s honestly not a single pitcher there that I’d ever miss and I’d ever tune into see.
The question is at what point are the Cubs going to try and win games? If the answer to that question is always next year or in two years, I’m done. There’s other baseball.
dmick89Quote Reply
This is a really good series, GW. I’ve learned a lot from it. I’m probably guilty of interpreting an improved walk rate in the SL even though the approach didn’t change. Good info to know.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’ll be surprised if the Cubs trade Samardzija. I think there are three reasons for this. First, the Cubs aren’t going to come close to getting what they want. They were reportedly asking for all the prospects this summer in a deal for him this summer. The Cubs would of course come down, but I don’t see they’re demands dropping enough. Secondly, the Cubs aren’t likely to trade him when he has the least amount of value. Finally, the Cubs rotation could very much use Samardzija at the top of the rotation. They aren’t going to get a pitcher of his caliber and experience in return in any trade and I can’t possibly imagine the Cubs running out a rotation of Jackson, Wood and a bunch of guys who probably can’t give you 100 innings as a starter.
If the Cubs had other pitching it might make sense, but right now, I think there’s a significantly greater chance they trade Castro and I’d be similarly surprised to see him traded.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’m not going to go all Sveumy and say Wood is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but I’m not sure why the projections feel the need to dump on him so much. He’s performed incredibly consistently all season with a FIP of 3.86. Maybe they’re taking into account that he’ll set a career high in innings. I don’t know. But he’ll be 27 next year and the FO seems to love him.
They also really like Arrieta and he’s been damn impressive at times. He’s also been inconsistent and that’s been the knock on him, but again, the Cubs really like him and probably think they can fix him up.
Rusin has been better than expected and a little lucky, but if he ended up as the 5th guy, then whatever.
But Samardzija isn’t exactly awesome, so I’m not sure why losing him would be so tragic if Wood is a 3, then Samardzija is also a 3, except he’s a three that wants to get paid like a 1. Fuck that shit. I want them to win, but I also don’t want them tossing money out the window for no reason and they’re not contending next season. They’ll be better and the Yellons are going to scream to add a piece or two when they’re where the Royals were this year, but it will be a .500 or so team next season.
2015 is when any impact will start being felt from the farm system. We should have at least seen Baez and Bryant in the majors as well as Vizcaino in some capacity (barring injury again), and maybe even Olt if he ever gets his shit together. That’s when you start plugging in some major contracts.
All I know is the Cubs’ future World Sreies aspirations better not hinge on whether Samardzija is on the team or not.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I don’t think their hopes hinge on him being present or anything. I just think you have to play baseball and unless there’s really a better option than him, why trade him? I also think it would be counterproductive to trade him after the season he’s had.
At some point you’ve got to play baseball and stop playing collect the prospects. I’m in favor of it to a point, but it’s also getting to where I’m starting to think the Cubs would be better suited for the Future’s League than Major League Baseball.
The reason the projections see Wood regressing is that he’s been very lucky in his home run per fly ball rate this year (and really throughout his career). His xFIP is only 4.46. His xFIP- in 2011 was 120 and it was 118 last year. It’s 118 this year. He’s also stranded 77.3% runners on base. He’s been very lucky when it comes to runs allowed. His strikeout rate has actually gone down this year. The walk rate has also gone down a little, which is of course good. his K-BB% was 10% last year and it’s 9.7% this year.
What’s changed is that instead of stranding 71.9%, he’s stranded many more runners. Really, that’s about it. His GB% has even gone down a tick, which probably isn’t good for him.
Wood is a serviceable starter and definitely belongs in a rotation, but he’s not this good.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d also add that this front office has really done nothing to lead us to believe they’d trade an asset like Samardzija. He’s worth much more than he’s paid and these are the guys the Cubs have been trying to acquire by trading the likes of Dempster, Garza and Feldman. Trading Samardzija is kind of the opposite of what this front office has sought to do since taking over.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
He’s more valuable than he’s paid right now, but he wants big time money in an extension. if you’re going to pay big time money, I’d want a better asset than Samardzija. he wants David Price money? I’ll just take David Price. It’s like when Alec Baldwin wanted Harrison Ford money for the next Jack Ryan movie after “Hunt for Red October,” so they just went and signed Harrison Ford.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Thanks. Yeah, the walk rate thing is interesting. I wouldn’t completely write off walk rates at that level, but it should be a consideration, I think.
GWQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Am I alone in preferring Alec Baldwin in that role?
GWQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
The Cubs don’t have to give him big time money. In arbitration they’ll probably pay him $5 million next year. He’s worth 3 to 4 times that. At most they’d pay him $10 million in 2015 and he’s worth more than that. I don’t want the Cubs to sign him to an extension. I’m not that happy with the extensions they’ve signed players to so far so I’d much prefer they just stay away from it. If Samardzija wants to sign for 5 years and $60 million, great. If not, no big deal. If that’s what the Cubs do and they suck in 2015 then they can trade him at the deadline.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
I thought they were both good in that role. They’re both terrible actors, but Ford is less terrible IMO. If I was going to watch one of them again, I’d go with Ford.
dmick89Quote Reply
I heard someone use xFIP and came as quick as I could.
xFIP is not a very good stat. It’s like FIP, except it comes with a built-in regression for flyball/HR rate. While it’s likely true (I’d even say definitely true) that HR/FB has such a small sample size per season that it unfairly helps or penalizes pitchers on a yearly basis, it assumes that pitcher has no control on his HR/FB rate. This isn’t true at all, so xFIP will always unfairly penalize the pitchers that have some innate ability to limit home runs while rewarding the pitchers that can’t. Since Travis Wood faced somewhere in the neighborhood of 240 players that hit a flyball against him already, the stat is going to normalize pretty well over a 2-3 year period, after which it’s almost strictly better to use FIP (which doesn’t regress unnecessarily).
I’m not saying that FIP is a perfect stat, but I AM saying that xFIP is a step in the wrong direction. Might I suggest SIERA?
MylesQuote Reply
Better Call Saul closer to reality: http://www.hitfix.com/whats-alan-watching/breaking-bad-prequel-spin-off-better-call-saul-closer-to-reality-after-sonyamc-deal
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Myles:
I’d rather use xFIP than SIERA. I wouldn’t use xFIP for a lot of analysis, but it highlights how similar Wood’s season has been to previous years in some ways.
dmick89Quote Reply
Re: the Cubs staff, I think they’ll look to add a pitcher essentially every offseason to augment their lack of talent in the immediate future. There are few reclamation projects that they’ll kick tires on (Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay), and they could even try to sign an Ervin Santana (which doesn’t get my motor running, but w/e). They could even swing a trade for a pitcher if they wanted (David Price of course being the most likely, but there are others out there). Shark is clearly just a #2/#3 type, but he’s still cheap for the near term, so I’m fine with going year-to-year with him for now. I think a staff of Jackson/Shark/Wood/Reclamation Project #34 [Baker/Johnson/Lincecum/Halladay]/AAA tryout [Hendricks/Rusin/Raley/Grimm/Arrieta] is a middling rotation, which means the Cubs can compete with a step forward from a guy or two.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I’m in the xFIP camp as well. A few years back it was debated a bit around here (and all over the interwebs, giving rise to at least one classic tweet: http://twitter.com/MacAree/status/9804919553). In short, I think SIERA is probably overfit, and has more than it’s fair share of selection bias baked in. (Although I do think it picks out some important non-linearities inherent in pitching).
GWQuote Reply
this was classic, too:
http://praiseball.wordpress.com/2011/07/19/one-idiot-with-a-stats-software-package/
GWQuote Reply
I can see the argument against SIERA, but even if you don’t want to use it, I’d STILL use FIP over xFIP.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Depends what you are going for. xFIP is going to do a lot better than FIP in predicting future ERA due to the built-in regression.
GWQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I would in most case, but in the case of Travis Wood, I’d probably look primarily at his xFIP. While I accept that some pitchers can limit home runs, I think the sample needed to know which pitchers can or can’t is so large that we’re just better off assuming regression to the mean. I heard it with Carlos Marmol. “you’re just wrong, he’s one of those rare guys that can limit home runs because he’s just so nasty.” Then his miniscule 2% rates in 2009 and 2010 rose to 7.5% and he wasn’t as good. Still, with only 556 innings in his career, I’d expect his true talent to be somewhere around 9.7% or so.
All I was trying to do was point out why the projections aren’t that optimistic about Wood. His peripherals are the exact same and even his HR/FB rate about the same as his career. The difference is LOB% and I’ll bet money it’s lower next year and his ERA increases. I’d also bet some money we see a higher HR/FB rate next year.
As for Rusin being a starter, we’re talking about a guy with a fastball that averages less than 88 mph and the difference between his strikeouts and walks is rather small. He’s probably a replacement level pitcher at best.
dmick89Quote Reply
I do agree with Myles and 424 that we’ll likely see the Cubs go after another Feldman and Baker type and I agree they’ll sign a pitcher each year until they’re developing some.
dmick89Quote Reply
Duane Underwood review will auto-post at 8 pm
dmick89Quote Reply
Colin on replacement level (free): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21773
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/cubs-prospects-in-review-duane-underwood.html
dmick89Quote Reply