All Purpose All-Star Break Rundown

In News And Rumors by Rice Cube56 Comments

Since the last time I looked at the odds (extreme Han Solo voice), the Cubs have slipped a bit in the standings but remain in third place, now six games back of the Brewers and seven behind the Reds. While it’s possible the Reds or the Brewers can win the division, I don’t think Cincinnati is as good as their record suggests (albeit with their very exciting play thanks to EDLC) and the recent series with the Brewers, in which the Cubs might have swept were it not for some brain farts and bad luck (it could’ve gone either way), suggested that the Brewers weren’t that good either. What remains is for the Cubs to take advantage of the fact that every team is flawed, while also making sure they minimize their own flaws. The odds have updated some thanks to the Reds almost running away with it, but the Cubs aren’t that far back when considering this part of the calendar, so they still have a shot at winning the division and a laughably small chance of clinching a first round bye. Having just won their first ever series against the Yankees in any stadium in the New York Metropolitan Area, the Cubs might have at least stemmed the need to sell, although I guess we can look at that later or talk about it on the podcast.

The All-Star Game

There was a flurry of moves as Sunday starters bowed out and replacement pitchers and other injury replacements were announced, but for the Cubs, only Justin Steele will actually play in the game since Marcus Stroman elected not to pitch and Dansby Swanson is on the injured list with a heel issue which we hope will resolve itself by the time he’s eligible to be activated. I did think it was a bit funky to have three representatives from a team that isn’t even at .500, but I guess that speaks to the talent of the club and how the record doesn’t reflect that talent because of “baseball” or whatever. Steele and Stroman are among the pitching leaders in the NL and Swanson may still be the WAR leader amongst NL shortstops (what, you want me to look it up?) so this plus the prospects knocking on the door make me think they should buy and not do any sort of major sell-off, although I imagine the days for certain players like a Patrick Wisdom might be numbered, and guys who could hit free agency soon like Cody Bellinger and even Kyle Hendricks could be good moves to free up roster spots for said prospects to get some reps before they hopefully get serious about winning this coming offseason. Anyway, the Home Run Derby is on Monday and then they play the only All-Star Game in which the defense actually tries.

The Draft

So Rob Manfred got an earful from the very perceptive fans in the crowd on Day 1, where the LSU duo everyone was salivating over got picked first and second overall, while the Cubs made some fun picks with their two of the day, which covered the first 70 picks. The second day will cover rounds 3-10, and the third and final day completes the draft with rounds 11-20 ever since they gutted the draft among killing something like 40 minor league affiliates and readying to restrict minor league club roster sizes. Most of the news is compiled over at MLB dot com.

The first was at #13 because the new draft lottery hates the Cubs, where they picked Matt Shaw, listed as either a second baseman or a shortstop or just an infielder, from the University of Maryland. He was apparently the Cape Cod League MVP last summer and hit a bunch of homers so there’s a hit tool, and the scouts suggest his arm won’t allow him to stay on the left side so he’s likely going to be a second baseman if he sticks, which makes things interesting down the line especially if he graduates as rapidly as Nico Hoerner did.

The final pick, thanks to Willson Contreras moving to the other side of the rivalry, was at #68 with Jaxon Wiggins, a right-hander from Arkansas who had Tommy John Surgery. I think of this as their Cade Horton pick for this year, and we can see what Horton is doing so far in the minors. Wiggins seemed to sit comfortably in the mid-90s with the ability to sniff triple digits but we’ll see if the Cubs got some value out of this one. Between Wiggins and Shaw I believe the Cubs will save some money for the later rounds to squeeze whatever value they can out of each slot before they screw some seniors (hey, phrasing)

The Cubs have a relatively smaller pool with $8,962,000 (plus 5%) to spend amongst their first 10 round picks, plus they can max out at $150K without dipping into the pool for anyone from rounds 11-20.

The Outlook

When they return home on Friday, the Cubs will take on a resurgent Red Sox club which might be fine were they not stuck in the AL East. After that one, it’s a long-ish quasi-home stand where they hopefully exact revenge on the Nationals and Cardinals before traveling to the South Side and finishing their season series against the Cardinals before July even ends. Then back home to play the current division leader Reds, which coincides with the trade deadline. Inclusive of the trade deadline on August 1, that’s 18 games remaining to build on this 42-47 record. This year’s Cubs has been a bit of a mystery because they can’t decide if they’re good or not, which probably means they’re a “bad” team by default, but also maybe they just need to do what Berselius says and just play better. So this is probably going to be about three weeks of agony or jubilation depending on what happens. It could go either way!

Share this Post

Comments

  3. berselius

    berselius,

    I’m kind of amazed at the forbearance Schatz has had wrt the flakes who bought FO’s parent company and basically stopped paying everyone.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  4. Author
    Rice Cube

    berselius,

    Seems to be happening to a lot of rags lately as they consider a switch to AI and the general late-stage capitalist trope of paying your work force as little as possible while generating tons of clickbait

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  6. Author
    Rice Cube

    BVS:
    I think Hendricks is proving that his option would be a good pick up. Talk of trading him is dumb.

    My general preference is that they extend Stroman, keep Bellinger around if they can, and see what Hendricks can do as a capable fifth starter at worst because I don’t want them to sell given the context of this core in progress, but if they do switch to sell I think that club option has value (Cots doesn’t say that it voids if he’s traded so the new team can at least make that decision)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  7. Author
    Rice Cube

    HR Derby tonight:

    (1) Luis Robert Jr. vs. (8) Adley Rutschman
    (2) Pete Alonso vs. (7) Julio RodrΓ­guez
    (3) Mookie Betts vs. (6) Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    (4) Adolis GarcΓ­a vs. (5) Randy Arozarena

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  11. Author
    Rice Cube

    Round 3, pick #81: Cubs pick Josh Rivera, from Florida…sounds like he’s a senior sign but has a high-average bat

    player-headshot
    Rivera was a solid high school prospect at IMG Academy in Florida, but a knee issue and his commitment to play for the Gators knocked him down to the 22nd round. He was never able to quite put it all together at Florida until this spring, his fourth with the Gators, with a consistent performance on both sides of the ball leading him to rise up Draft boards in a hurry. For his first three seasons at Florida (the first cut short by the pandemic), Rivera didn’t produce much, if at all, offensively, and dealt with arm issues in 2022. This year, though, he’s been healthy and shown he can impact the ball a lot more effectively. He’s not necessarily a pure hitter, with a bit of an unbalanced setup at the plate, but he’s been barreling up the ball all spring, with an advanced approach that has led to very few strikeouts and a healthy walk rate. All of that has enabled him tap into his raw power consistently. While he isn’t overly rangy, scouts do think Rivera has the chance to stick at shortstop. He’s good to his glove side and will make the everyday play consistently, but he won’t be flashy. Some think that, plus his arm being a little short, might make him a better fit for second base or perhaps a super-utility role. But his big step forward with the bat has made him one of the higher-profile seniors in the class.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  12. Perkins

    I would not hate seeing the Cubs try to extend Bellinger, depending on how they feel about Mervis as well as PCA’s readiness for promotion next year.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  13. Author
    Rice Cube

    Round 4, #113 for the Cubs –> Will Sanders, South Carolina

    Scouts loved Sanders’ projectability when he was a Georgia high schooler, but the shortened 2020 season eliminated his opportunity to make an impression that spring. He went undrafted and headed to South Carolina, where he has added 20 pounds to his 6-foot-6 frame and his stuff has gotten stronger as well. An inconsistent junior season ruined his chances of going in the first round, and his stock took another hit when he missed the final three weeks of the regular season as well as the Southeastern Conference tournament with an apparent foot injury. Sanders’ difficulties have stemmed largely from his inability to miss bats with his fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph and peaks at 96 but catches too much of the plate and lacks life when he doesn’t command it up in the zone. His secondary pitches are all solid, including a mid-80s changeup that tumbles and fades and keeps left-handers at bay. He favors his low-80s curveball over his mid-80s slider, both of which have depth, and he can land both for strikes. Sanders’ size helps him create extension and angle that make life more difficult for hitters. Despite his long limbs, he keeps his mechanics in sync and provides a reliable amount of strikes, though his control has slipped a bit in 2023. He still can gain more strength but his biggest need is to improve the movement and command with his fastball.

    Sounds like a project

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  16. Author
    Rice Cube

    Round 5, #149 –> Michael Carico out of Davidson, a catcher, looks like he had a shoulder injury…and probably won’t stick at catcher for long given this profile

    After batting .219 as a part-time catcher trying to play through a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder in 2021, Carico broke out as a 19-year-old sophomore last season. He batted .406/.559/.843, led NCAA Division I in on-base percentage and OPS (1.402) and set Davidson records for OBP, slugging, OPS, runs (71), homers (21), extra-base hits (43), total bases (166) and hit by pitches (26). The Atlantic 10 Conference player of the year, he also became the first Davidson player invited to try out for the U.S. collegiate national team. Carico has some stiffness to his left-handed swing, but he has the strength and bat speed to produce solid power from left-center to the right-field line. He struggled in the Team USA trials against better quality pitching, so there’s some question as to how good he’ll be versus tougher competition. He may not produce high batting averages, but his pop and his plate discipline are real. Carico has well-below-average speed and fringy-at-best athleticism that limits his ceiling as a receiver, though he does have the work ethic to become adequate behind the plate. He has solid arm strength but it plays down because he lacks accuracy on his throws. Though he broke a bone in his left wrist in March and missed most of the next two months, he’s still a lefty-hitting catcher with performance and youth on his side, so he might match Robert Eenhoorn (second round, 1990) as the highest pick in Wildcats history.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  18. Author
    Rice Cube

    Rice Cube:
    Round 6, #176 –> Alfonsin Rosario, seems like a high school OF, MLB.com doesn’t have a blurb about him

    I guess when in doubt, hit the ball really hard

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  20. Author
    Rice Cube

    None of these next picks are top 150 or whatever so they don’t get a blurb…

    7-206 — Yahil Melendez, SS (high school)
    8-236 — Brett Bateman, OF (Minnesota)
    9-266 — Jonathon Long, 1B (Long Beach State)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  27. BVS

    I have to admit that the home run derby bores me. Probably because the camera work on the balls in flight is bad. Seems like statcast ought to be able to better help track the balls.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  28. BVS

    Rice Cube,

    2 pitchers in 1st 10 picks right? Kind of the opposite of last year.

    I think the C from Davidson probably stays at C when I read the Blurb. Funny that you think the opposite RC, assuming you are also only going on the blurb.

    Bateman from MN seems like Billy Hamilton at best.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  35. berselius

    Immaculate Grid 99 5/9:

    ⬜️🟩🟩
    ⬜️🟩🟩
    ⬜️⬜️🟩

    This was less about me not knowing the Reds as it was about me knowing nothing about the Angels or Orioles outside of 2001-2005 or so (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  36. Perkins

    Immaculate Grid 99 7/9:

    🟩🟩🟩
    ⬜️🟩🟩
    ⬜️🟩🟩

    Rarity score sitting at 272, so most of the ones I got were around 10% or lower. Apparently there’s a second game today as well.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  37. Perkins

    One wild thing about this game is how everyone seems to have forgotten Miguel Tejada. I think every time I’ve used him as an answer, he’s been under 10%.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  42. andcounting

    Immaculate Grid 100 8/9:
    Rarity: 268
    🟩🟩⬜️
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩

    Goddamn Brett Butler.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  43. andcounting

    I forgot Butler took too many walks to ever get 200 hits and I refused to even risk letting Steve Garvey break my heart one more time, so much so that I forgot the most obvious answer. 200 hits is SUCH a trivia buster.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  44. Perkins

    Immaculate Grid 100 8/9:
    Rarity: 265
    🟩🟩⬜️
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩

    I got too cute guessing Ichiro for NYY 200 hits before putting the obvious one.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  46. berselius

    Perkins,

    I wish there was a better way to sort the ‘two teams’ tables, like by combined or average WAR as some proxy for well-known-ness.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  48. andcounting

    berselius,

    I’m guessing recency and total number of teams played for play out to be big factors too.

    IYKYK, but Jose Viscaino got me a .7% for one of the squares. It always helps when they’re former Cubs.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  53. Perkins

    andcounting:
    berselius,

    I’m guessing recency and total number of teams played for play out to be big factors too.

    IYKYK, but Jose Viscaino got me a .7% for one of the squares. It always helps when they’re former Cubs.

    I once got a 0.2% for Brian Matusz and 0.1% for Aaron Heilman. It’s always fun to bust out extremely obscure Cubs.

    Next time a Cubs/Mets intersection comes around, I’m going with Ced Landrum.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment