An Upton family reunion in Chicago

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick8961 Comments

While Brett Jackson will return to AAA next year thanks to a poor performance at the big league level, he will get another chance at some point. I'm just not sure it will be with this team. The Cubs have a couple very attractive options this winter. The first is free agent B.J. Upton who is almost certain to not be re-signed by the Rays.

Upton turned 28 at the end of August so he's right in the middle of his prime years and plays a position the Cubs will look to get better at. Executives that Jerry Crasnick spoke with estimated that Upton would earn about $27 million over 3 years to about $70 million over 5 years. It's not even clear that the Rays would present a qualifying offer (roughly $13 million) to Upton so that if he declined, the Rays would get an additional draft pick. I think it's more likely than not that the Rays will do that, but it is somewhat of a gamble, especially if the best Upton can do is closer to the bottom range of what the executives said. At that point Upton might think about playing another year in Tampa Bay, earning $13 million or so and hoping he puts together a stronger season so he could then enter free agency the following winter. It's not a slam dunk that the Rays make that qualifying offer. That decision will depend on what they learn over the next few weeks.

UZR thinks Upton is about average in CF and DRS sees him as well below average. FRAA has him at average. Depending on what other metrics team use they might think he needs to move to a corner outfield spot, but others will have no problem putting him in CF with the possibility of moving to a corner later on.

Upton is an excellent baserunner.

I've talked about his defense and baserunning first because it still surprises me how little production he provided the Rays when I think back to what his potential was after being drafted. In his first full season he looked like he was going to become the superstar that people expected he'd become, but it never happened. His career wOBA is .333, which is a 107 wRC+. Over the last few years his wOBA has been pretty consistent. It was .328 in 2010 and then .333 and .323 this past year. His wRC+ in 2010 was 107 and it was 107 in 2012.

He's a better than league average bat, but that's about it. One defensive metric thinks he's lousy while two others believe he is average. Over the last three seasons his fWAR was 4.1, 4.1 and 3.3 in 2012. His rWAR was 1.0, 2.8 and 2.6 while his WARP 3.7, 3.0 and 2.1. He's been an above average player, but nothing great, which is why these executives are so split on how much they think he'll earn going forward.

PECOTA's 10-year forecast projected 2.3 WARP for Upton in 2013 followed by 2.4, 2.3, 2.1 and 1.9 in 2017. Obviously these forecasts will be slightly different when PECOTA's 2013 forecasts are available, but that's a good enough starting point.

If we assume Upton will sign for 3, 4 or 5 years we're looking at a projected 7 WARP, 9.1 WARP, or 11 WARP. Let's say the average win value over the next 3 years is $5.5 million, $5.75 million over the next 4 years and $6 million over a 5-year contract.

That gives us the following potential contracts (rounded to the nearest million).

  • 3 years: $39 million
  • 4 years: $52 million
  • 5 years: $66 million

Based on the available projection at this point it would seem the executives both underestimated BJ Upton's value and also overestimated it. That is, if these forecasts are accurate, the dollars per win are accurate and so on. This is the best I can do given the information that I have. Nothing more.

That price range is definitely something the Cubs can afford. They've already said they're going to be spending money this offseason and I think it's safe to say they don't mean David DeJesus or Paul Maholm type money. They probably don't mean Josh Hamilton type money either, but BJ Upton won't come anywhere near Hamilton.

I actually think this will be the Cubs "big" free agent signing of the offseason. I'm also going to guess closer to 5/70.

BJ won't be the only Upton coming to Chicago. It's fairly clear at this point that the Diamondbacks will be looking to trade Justin Upton. Some of you are thinking I'm overly optimistic, but I'm nothing if not optimistc. In fact, everywhere I go people say to me "mb21, you are an optimistic fucking guy."

I won't talk any further about Justin Upton since I did so quite recently. His estimated surplus trade value is about $33 million meaning he's worth a top 10 hitting prospect or a couple top 10 pitching prospects. Obviously the Cubs don't have the pitching, but Javier Baez is pretty close to top 10 hitting. The Cubs would still have some nice looking bats in their lower minors if they were to deal him and someone like Matt Garza to Arizona to acquire Upton. It's a deal the Cubs can make and should. Upton would be the team's best player and a core of talent that includes him, Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro and even BJ Upton would be a very nice foundation. Three of them are still young enough they haven't even reached their peaks and the other is at his peak.

The Cubs will have to patch up the rotation the best they can, but this would instantly make the Cubs offense a hell of a lot more interesting than it has been. They'd have a group to build around for the next several years and could surely contend in the next few years if they really wanted to.

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  5. Berselius

    The pitching will still probably suck, even if the Cubs pick up someone like Sanchez or Loshe, but if all of this happened it would sure be nice to watch the Cubs not flail around on offense (this also assumes Soriano is gone). I wonder if they could ship Adolfo (and $$) to AZ in the deal.

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  6. Berselius

    I don’t think the Cubs are particularly attached to DeJesus either. He’d be far easier to trade given their trouble in trading Soriano while practically begging teams to take him off their hands.

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  11. Rice Cube

    I really really really want to believe something like this can happen but I just keep thinking about unicorns, flying pigs, snowballs in hell and rainbows with pots of gold at the end…

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  14. WaLi

    Some of you are thinking I’m overly optimistic, but I’m nothing if not optimistc. In fact, everywhere I go people say to me “mb21, you are an optimistic fucking guy.”

    False.

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  23. josh

    Watched the replay. That broken bat thing that Pence did looked like it made that ball curve about four feet. What was crazy. I’ve never seen that before.

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  32. Mercurial Outfielder

    I don’t think the Cubs have the horses to deal for Justin. I’m guessing he ends up with an AL team, LAAAAAA of LA in LA or Texas. In fact, if Hamilton doesn’t re-sign, I can almost guarantee he ends up with the Rangers.

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  33. mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    I’m somewhat skeptical of the reports, but there were reports at the deadline that the Cubs and Dbacks were working on a deal around Garza and Upton. I think they definitely have interest if or when he’s available. He’s the kind of impact talent that Thoyer wants and unless you think Upton is going to get 3 or 4 times more than he’s worth, the Cubs do have the talent to get it done. If it takes 3-4 times more than he’s worth, I don’t want him. (dying laughing)

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  41. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ mb21:
    I think Garza’s trade value has taken a big hit, so I think the D’Backs will want Garza, the young bat, and a young arm, and I can’t imagine who the Cubs have the could swing the deal.

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  42. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Berselius:
    Oh, yeah, that would be sweet to see them blow their FA wad on Hamilton. You thinking it makes fewer suitors for Greinke, as well?

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  47. mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    You’re thinking he’s worth more than I am. Keep in mind he’s due a lot of money over the next few years. Not what he’d get as a free agent, but still quite a bit of money. I don’t think the Dbacks come away with that type of package for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if Garza/Baez actually got the Cubs a relief prospect too. I could obviously be wrong though.

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  49. jtsunami

    mb21 wrote:

    You’re thinking he’s worth more than I am. Keep in mind he’s due a lot of money over the next few years. Not what he’d get as a free agent, but still quite a bit of money. I don’t think the Dbacks come away with that type of package for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if Garza/Baez actually got the Cubs a relief prospect too. I could obviously be wrong though.

    I may be incorrect, but I seem to remember something about the Diamondbacks not liking his work ethic or attitude or something like that. If that is true, combine that with an pretty average year (albeit as a 25 year old) and his salary,and he might get dealt for less than he’s worth.

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  50. mb21

    @ jtsunami:
    Good points. Ultimately it will depend on how many teams are interested and I’m guessing quite a few will be. I’m not sure how many will be seriously interested (as in they’re willing to make a reasonable trade). If the reports from this past summer are true, it would seem the Dbacks at least have interest in what the Cubs can offer.

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  53. Berselius

    @ jtsunami:

    IIRC the excuse for Upton’s offensive performance this year was a thumb/hand injury early in the year that he played through for most of the season. That reminds me of a certain Cubs player…

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  54. Aisle424

    I know prospects fail… yada yada yada… but I’m not in favor of trading away Baez for Upton. For one, I’ve never been in love with either of the Uptons as much as everybody else in baseball seemed to be. Two, if we’re not contending any time soon anyway, why trade away a potential star for a guy who is basically being given up on by his current team who knows the most about him? (Clearly he’s not in their future plans and they are a hell of a lot closer to contending than the Cubs are.)

    If Baez were included in a package that landed an established difference-maker, that’s fine, but Upton seems to have too much uncertainty to give up a younger guy with a ceiling just as high with the Cubs being in their current position.

    I look at his similarity scores and I’m not overwhelmed. For every Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz, there is a Brad Hawpe and Kal Daniels. Maybe I’ve been a Cubs fan too long, but I fully expect to trade Baez and get back Kal Daniels and that just isn’t sitting right with me. Not when the reward is nowhere near the magnitude of the risk.

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  55. Berselius

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:

    The Red Sox have a lot of holes in their roster, and a lot of money to spend. They could try to go full rebuild and stay away from FAs (pointing to busts like Lackey, Crawford etc for the fans), but I don’t see that going over well with their ownership (especially given some unsubstantiated rumors about them thinking of selling the team). Just look at their depth chart right now

    C Saltalamacchia/Lavarnway
    1B James Fucking Loney (dying laughing)
    2B Pedroia
    SS Iglesias
    3B Middlebrooks
    LF Scott Podsednik
    CF Ellsbury
    RF ? (Cody Ross is a FA, IIRC)
    DH Ortiz (resigned to a 2-year deal)
    P Jon Lester
    P Clay Bucholz
    P Felix Doubront
    P Aaron Cook
    P Daiskue Matsuzaka
    P John Lackey

    Almost makes me feel good about the Cubs org. Ouch.

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  58. mb21

    @ Aisle424:
    For what it’s worth, just about every person has similarity scores like that. As Nate pointed out in his new book, Dustin Pedroia, a superstar, has some poor similar players like Marcus Giles, Odell Hale and Aaron Hill. I remember several years ago looking at Zambrano’s similar players and you saw some legitimate HOF type players as well as some replacement level players. Castro’s most similar by age is Garry Templeton who wasn’t any good after the age of 26 and Travis Jackson who is a Hall of Famer.

    Also worth mentioning is that Upton has hit nearly as well at the big league level as Baez has in the very low minors. Baez is a good prospect, potentially a really good player, but Upton was a superstar prospect and has shown superstar abilities at the big league level. If Baez ends up being half as good as Upton it would be a huge success. Upton had more patience in the minors and at he big league level he’s walking in more than twice as many plate appearances as Baez in the low minors. Upton is one of the better players in the game. Baez is one of the better prospects.

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  59. mb21

    I also think if the Cubs were to get these two, it changes things for the Cubs. Instead of looking at 4 or 5 years before they’re contenders, we’re probably talking 1, maybe 2. If the Cubs acquire Justin Upton, they’ll be contending before his contract is up, which I actually think is necessary for Thoyer to keep their jobs anyway.

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