One thing that hasn’t been discussed much is how the Cubs went from a similarly unwatchable team in 2006 to the playoffs in 2007. Just like the 2011 Cubs, the 2006 Cubs had some major black holes on their roster, trotted out numerous awful pitchers in the 5th starter spot, and were completely unwatchable and awful.
Somehow they managed to go from that trainwreck into a playoff team the next year. I was curious how they did it, and curious if that success could be duplicated.
Free Agent Improvements
Of course the lazy answer here is that they spent their way into the playoffs, and that is partly true. Here’s a table of who they brought on, who that person replaced, and what the marginal gain was in WAR:
| Player added | Position | WAR | Replaced | WAR | Net gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soriano | LF | 7 | Pierre | 3 | 4 |
| Derosa | 2b | 3 | Neifi / Walker | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Lily | SP | 3.6 | Maddux | 3 | 0.6 |
| Ward | BN | 1.1 | Mabry | -0.6 | 1.7 |
| Marquis | SP | 1.7 | Marmol / Mateo / Guzman | 0 | 1.7 |
| 10.5 |
The Ward / Mabry improvement is a little exaggerated here, mainly because Mabry accumulated that negative WAR largely by playing first. He’d probably have been a 0 WAR player if Lee hadn’t forced him into increased playing time, so that should probably be closer to just Ward’s 1.1. Still – that’s a 10 WAR improvement through free agency alone.
Bouncebacks
Like the 2011 Cubs, the narrative for the 2006 Cubs is that they were a bad team made worse by injuries and underperformance. In particular, the Lee injury cost them dearly.
Really though – the injury card is a little overplayed for both teams. When I dug into the numbers, I just didn’t see as much of a bounceback year over year from players as I was expecting – here’s what there was:
| Bouncebacks | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comeback player | Position | WAR | Problem | Previous WAR | Net gain |
| Lee | 1b | 3.9 | Hurt | 0.9 | 3 |
| Ramirez | 3b | 5.1 | Sucked | 4.2 | 0.9 |
| 3.9 |
| Player | 2007 WAR | 2006 WAR | Net Loss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blanco | -0.5 | 1 | -1.5 | ||
| Zambrano | 2.8 | 3.9 | -1.1 | ||
| -2.6 |
The 2007 Cubs got a lot of major improvement from a handful of young players who developed into contributors at the same time. A lot of them had been on the 2006 team but were better used in 2007 (Marmol went from an awful starter to the best reliever in baseball; Theriot actually had a worse WAR in 2007 but was moved to SS to replace Cedeno and his -1.6 WAR).
| Player | Pos | 2007 WAR | Replaced | Net Gain | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marmol | RP | 1.7 | 1.7 | ||
| Hill | SP | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | |
| Soto | C | 0.8 | 2.6 | -1.8 | |
| Theriot | SS | 1.3 | -1.6 | 2.9 | |
| 4.6 |
| Black holes – 2011 | Best candidate | Proj 2011 WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RF: -.4 WAR | Beltran | 6 | |
| 1B: 1 WAR | Fielder | 6.8 | |
| SP: .7 WAR | Wilson | 6 | |
| SP: -.2 WAR |
- Sign Prince Fielder and CJ Wilson
- Sign Carlos Beltran
- Trade Marlon Byrd to clear his salary; replace him with Jackson
- Get bounceback years from Geovany Soto and, to a lesser extent, Soriano
- Get Randy Wells to stop sucking
Comments
Fielder, Wilson, and Beltran would probably cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $40-$50 mil, which is quite a bit more than the Cubs are rumored to be willing to spend this offseason ($25 mil).
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Wreck do you have any reason, and I do not ask this rhetorically, to expect any bounceback from Soriano? He’s as healthy as he’s probably ever going to be this year, and he has been pretty damn bad.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Cool work, Wreckard. The hoping for bounceback thing might be tough. The word on the street is that the Cubs are willing to eat a big chunk of Soriano’s contract.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yeah, I agree. I’m not necessarily saying these are practical recommendations – just if you wanted to duplicate 2007’s success this is what you’d have to do.
More realistically you have to forget about Wilson and hope that Cashner and Wells can bring you a 4-5 WAR imrpovement, and fill RF and 1B through free agency since you don’t have any internal options there.
The WreckardQuote Reply
Yeah, Soriano is probably a 3-win player at this point in his career. I almost left him out as a bounceback candidate – but I think the moral of the story here is that a half a win here, a win there.. it all adds up and you have to take it where you can get it. The 2007 Cubs only got 2+ win improvements from Lee, Soriano, Theriot and Derosa. The rest of the improvements were more incremental.
The WreckardQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]Yeah, I agree. I’m not necessarily saying these are practical recommendations – just if you wanted to duplicate 2007’s success this is what you’d have to do.
More realistically you have to forget about Wilson and hope that Cashner and Wells can bring you a 4-5 WAR imrpovement, and fill RF and 1B through free agency since you don’t have any internal options there.[/quote]I think Fielder will blow the FA budget by himself.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Cool work, Wreckard. The hoping for bounceback thing might be tough. The word on the street is that the Cubs are willing to eat a big chunk of Soriano’s contract.[/quote]But then you’re probably looking at less FA money. This club is in a bad spot: they need to sign FA to get better quick, but they can only sign by moving guys, and the guys they need to move will require them to eat a bunch of cash, which probably tightens the purse strings for FA signings.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I think Fielder will blow the FA budget by himself.[/quote]You’d need to defer much of the money to make my plan work, which I’m fine with personally.
The WreckardQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]Yeah, Soriano is probably a 3-win player at this point in his career. I almost left him out as a bounceback candidate – but I think the moral of the story here is that a half a win here, a win there.. it all adds up and you have to take it where you can get it. The 2007 Cubs only got 2+ win improvements from Lee, Soriano, Theriot and Derosa. The rest of the improvements were more incremental.[/quote]Actually, if he was worth 3 WAR next year that would be a big improvement – he’s on pace for just 1 win this year. So I stand by my bounceback scenario.
The WreckardQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]But then you’re probably looking at less FA money. This club is in a bad spot: they need to sign FA to get better quick, but they can only sign by moving guys, and the guys they need to move will require them to eat a bunch of cash, which probably tightens the purse strings for FA signings.[/quote]
I think Soriano’s contract is the only one they have to eat…I assume they keep Dempster and Z until their contracts are done. After 2012, not taking into account guys they might sign suggested by Wreckard, Soriano is the only guy still owed $$ as far as I know.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]You’d need to defer much of the money to make my plan work, which I’m fine with personally.[/quote]Well, if there’s anything Jim is adept at, it’s backloading contracts. Which is partly why the Cubs are int he spot they are now. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]Actually, if he was worth 3 WAR next year that would be a big improvement – he’s on pace for just 1 win this year. So I stand by my bounceback scenario.[/quote]Eh. I don’t see any reason to think Soriano is going to be better than he is right now. His legs are shot.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
or the club could have more money to spend than they are letting on. we havent seen the books
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Eh. I don’t see any reason to think Soriano is going to be better than he is right now. His legs are shot.[/quote]
If he can hit 30+ HR, all they need to do is find out whether Soriano can use a Hoveround to drive the bases (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]Yeah, Soriano is probably a 3-win player at this point in his career. I almost left him out as a bounceback candidate – but I think the moral of the story here is that a half a win here, a win there.. it all adds up and you have to take it where you can get it. The 2007 Cubs only got 2+ win improvements from Lee, Soriano, Theriot and Derosa. The rest of the improvements were more incremental.[/quote]Agreed it’s about a half win here and there. Great writeup, by the way.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]or the club could have more money to spend than they are letting on. we havent seen the books[/quote]Wittenmyer (consider the source…) claims to have knowledge of the amount of money Hendry will be given and he says ~$25 mil. MB ran the numbers here a few weeks back and came up with a similar figure. Absent a cash infusion from Papa Ricketts, the cash isn’t there, especially considering the debt service and stadium repair money Tommy Boy still needs to find.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]If he can hit 30+ HR, all they need to do is find out whether Soriano can use a Hoveround to drive the bases (dying laughing)[/quote]The Cubs just need to invest in a Segway.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
NFL owners vote to end lockout players vote at 8
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]NFL owners vote to end lockout players vote at 8[/quote]So the owners agreed to open the facilities and allow the players to practice before they’ve actually re-formed the NFLPA?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Well, if there’s anything Jim is adept at, it’s backloading contracts. Which is partly why the Cubs are int he spot they are now. (dying laughing)[/quote]That’s not really fair, though. They’re in this spot now while they were in a much better spot in 2007, 2008 and 2009 than they would have been had they not backloaded the contracts. Teams should either front load or backload contracts. There’s no reason to pay someone a set amount annually. If you’re paying for the value of the win each season then you’re never giving yourself a chance to take advantage of the extra money available.
I don’t mind the backloading of contracts. It’s what allowed the Cubs to contend for 3 straight seasons, which is something they’d not have been able to do without doing it.
The Cubs are very much in the same situation entering this offseason. The Cubs need to sign as many type A’s as they are allowed (3) and probably need to make a trade or two at the very least. The players they sign will more than likely have to be backloaded.
I’m not saying this is what I’d do, but if the Cubs are serious about contending, they can do it. It’s just going to cost a lot of money. Consider the 2007 payroll was barely higher than the 2006 payroll. It was $94.4 million in 2006 and $99.7 million in 2007. Backloading those deals was the ONLY thing that allowed that team to win the division that year and probably the next year as well. The downside is that it’s largely why the Cubs are in the situation they are now.
it’s a weird game.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Wittenmyer (consider the source…) claims to have knowledge of the amount of money Hendry will be given and he says ~$25 mil. MB ran the numbers here a few weeks back and came up with a similar figure. Absent a cash infusion from Papa Ricketts, the cash isn’t there, especially considering the debt service and stadium repair money Tommy Boy still needs to find.[/quote]Agreed. Based on what Ricketts has said (payroll will remain the same or maybe even a “tick lower”), the Cubs don’t have the money to sign all the guys necessary to contend. At least not without heavily backloading the contracts and eventually putting themselves in this same position. They’d also probably put themselves in the same position as 2007 and 2008. That’s the good part. The bad part? THIS! (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]That’s not really fair, though. They’re in this spot now while they were in a much better spot in 2007, 2008 and 2009 than they would have been had they not backloaded the contracts. Teams should either front load or backload contracts. There’s no reason to pay someone a set amount annually. If you’re paying for the value of the win each season then you’re never giving yourself a chance to take advantage of the extra money available.
I don’t mind the backloading of contracts. It’s what allowed the Cubs to contend for 3 straight seasons, which is something they’d not have been able to do without doing it.
The Cubs are very much in the same situation entering this offseason. The Cubs need to sign as many type A’s as they are allowed (3) and probably need to make a trade or two at the very least. The players they sign will more than likely have to be backloaded.
I’m not saying this is what I’d do, but if the Cubs are serious about contending, they can do it. It’s just going to cost a lot of money. Consider the 2007 payroll was barely higher than the 2006 payroll. It was $94.4 million in 2006 and $99.7 million in 2007. Backloading those deals was the ONLY thing that allowed that team to win the division that year and probably the next year as well. The downside is that it’s largely why the Cubs are in the situation they are now.
it’s a weird game.[/quote]I don’t mind it either. It’s a gamble of a sort. We’re just seeing what happens when the gamble doesn’t exactly pay off. I do worry about the combination of a backloaded deal and the NTC. I’d prefer the Cubs not do that in future.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Maybe Ricketts could get the Pirates to swap rosters with him in the off-season since they can actually field a competitive team in the division. (dying laughing)
I like the idea of acquiring Fielder and Wilson. i don’t think Beltran can be counted on physically and he’ll want too much money for what he is now. I’d much rather they trade for BJ Upton.
melissaQuote Reply
i think the pirates team this year is smoke and mirrors. they are playing way over their head right now. I still think Cards win the division
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]i think the pirates team this year is smoke and mirrors. they are playing way over their head right now. I still think Cards win the division[/quote]
I like the Reds or Brewers. I don’t actually think the Pirates are good, I just find it funny that even the Pirates can contend in this shitty division.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I don’t mind it either. It’s a gamble of a sort. We’re just seeing what happens when the gamble doesn’t exactly pay off. I do worry about the combination of a backloaded deal and the NTC. I’d prefer the Cubs not do that in future.[/quote]I’d prefer they not do it to this extent, but that was largely because the Tribune was selling the team and they weren’t going to pay for it, but wanted a winner.
I do want the team to give out contracts that allow them to add wins above what they’re paying. If you frontload a contract, you’re paying more in present value than you are if you backload a contract so you have to lower the value of the contract to reflect that. So I don’t really care which way they do it, but I do want them to pay less at some point per win for their players so they can add more wins with that additional money.
mb21Quote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This was a great write-up, Wreckard.
IF the Ricketts can find the money to pull off anything close to Wreckard’s plan, and IF the guys we need to bounce back actually bounce back, and IF the guys like Dempster, Zambrano, Marmol, and Marshall don’t regress too badly, the Cubs could contend for a couple of years, particularly in the NL Central.
Then IF the increased investment in the draft this year and (presumably) the next couple of years actually pays off in rebuilding the farm, the next slide won’t be as precipitous and the need to go balls to the wall in free agency won’t be as necessary.
Of course, that is a fuckload of ifs to all go in the right direction.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Geovany Soto is another bounce back candidate as next year is an even numbered year. He should be good for 4 to 5 WAR next year. Then in 2013 he’ll be a 1 WAR player.
mb21Quote Reply
NL central is so bad that anything is possible with the correct pieces. i assume Beltran is playing RF?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
logan watkins keeps hitting
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]logan watkins keeps hitting[/quote]It’s because he’s from Kansas, DJ.
mb21Quote Reply
jackson is struggling so far in AAA
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]jackson is struggling so far in AAA[/quote]It’s because he’s not from Kansas, DJ.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]jackson is struggling so far in AAA[/quote]Who knew that walking less than Tyler Colvin was bad thing?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Who knew that walking less than Tyler Colvin was bad thing?[/quote]
?
dylanjQuote Reply
i just cant figure out why Rhoderick isnt up yet. just fucking release grabow already
dylanjQuote Reply
The thing about BJaxx whiffing a lot: It just shows there is no philosophy here. I’m not going to kiss Billy Beane’s ass, but at least they have a philosophy — and it got them within a Giambi slide of beating the Yankees. The Cubs clearly have no philosophy, other than, “Hey, Tim thinks that guy looks good — let’s draft him.” How’s that working out so far? How’s Tyler Colvin looking these days? Josh Vitters? Hayden Simpson? Brooks Kieschnick? etc etc.
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Who knew that walking less than Tyler Colvin was bad thing?[/quote]
It seems like he’s still getting into deep counts, but takes third-strike calls a bunch and doesn’t do well getting contact…all those strikeouts are still alarming.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]?[/quote]’Tis a joke. You need to lay off that kiddie liquor you’ve been drinking, it’s dulled your wits.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2011/07/21/bernstein-if-cubs-hire-gillick-everyone-else-must-go/
MishQuote Reply
Casey Coleman also still sucks.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
so the nfl owners passed a CBA that they knew the players hadn’t agreed to. This has been the weirdest negotiation ever
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Steve Swisher]The thing about BJaxx whiffing a lot: It just shows there is no philosophy here. I’m not going to kiss Billy Beane’s ass, but at least they have a philosophy — and it got them within a Giambi slide of beating the Yankees. The Cubs clearly have no philosophy, other than, “Hey, Tim thinks that guy looks good — let’s draft him.” How’s that working out so far? How’s Tyler Colvin looking these days? Josh Vitters? Hayden Simpson? Brooks Kieschnick? etc etc.[/quote]I don’t know if shows no philosophy; I think it is a sign that there is possibly a bad philosophy in play. Soto and Castro are the only position prospects this org has turned out since Mark Grace. That’s a disease of which BJacks’ K% is merely a symptom.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]so the nfl owners passed a CBA that they knew the players hadn’t agreed to. This has been the weirdest negotiation ever[/quote]Jerry Jones and many of his cronies are so over-leveraged they need this thing to be over. The players took a kind of bad deal, and the owners (who are fucking bleeding cash at this point) want this thing over before the players realize what happened.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I agree with the Swish, the lack of direction, plan, or overarching philosophy drives me up a wall. Each season is just a handful of shit thrown against the wall…sometimes it sticks, and sometimes it don’t.
MishQuote Reply
i think alot of us are doing what MD pointed we do with Castro- expecting way too much. He’s 22 in AAA and one of the top guys in the game. Even so, those guys flame out all the time. Look at Maybin or Rasmus they put up better #’s, were ranked higher and are both average major league players. If we had anything resembling a major league team we wouldnt have such a microscope on Jackson. At this point even if he implodes he was a good pick who we failed to trade when his value was high
dylanjQuote Reply
the owners might have just backed baby into a corner. The NFLPA took out a year long insurance policy for all players. (200k each) By that time the NFL WILL lose that anti trust case.
dylanjQuote Reply
and MO needs to stop hating on Jack Daniels Honey. Its good.
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Geovany Soto is another bounce back candidate as next year is an even numbered year. He should be good for 4 to 5 WAR next year. Then in 2013 he’ll be a 1 WAR player.[/quote]The Steve Trachsel of catchers.
ACTQuote Reply
Or a less good Roy Campanella.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]i think alot of us are doing what MD pointed we do with Castro- expecting way too much. He’s 22 in AAA and one of the top guys in the game. Even so, those guys flame out all the time. Look at Maybin or Rasmus they put up better #’s, were ranked higher and are both average major league players. If we had anything resembling a major league team we wouldnt have such a microscope on Jackson. At this point even if he implodes he was a good pick who we failed to trade when his value was high[/quote]
Good point. I don’t think anyone is predicting stardom, but we (ok, I) have been waiting for him like he’s going to be the second coming.
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
[quote name=Steve Swisher]Good point. I don’t think anyone is predicting stardom, but we (ok, I) have been waiting for him like he’s going to be the second coming.[/quote]
i have too. but its silly to do it. the only guy in the minors to put that kind of hope on is Bryce Harper
dylanjQuote Reply
Casey Coleman has a pretty good bat tonight. I wonder if they can convert him to a catcher.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
coleman with a 2 R triple. thats right im giving updates on the iowa fucking cubs
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]coleman with a 2 R triple. thats right im giving updates on the iowa fucking cubs[/quote]
I’m also watching the Rays game, James Shields is pitching very well and I probably just cursed him.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs may finally understand the concept of a sunk cost:
http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/6791533/chicago-cubs-willing-absorb-much-alfonso-soriano-contract
Aisle424Quote Reply
Are we really convinced that Kosuke is that much of a black hole in right? His negative fWAR comes almost entirely from his defense, which anecdotally strikes me as a bit harsh… My eyes (which tell me a lot, just, by looking) make me think of him as a meh defender and an average hitter, so a slightly-below-average player overall.
Which would make him a slightly more attractive trade chip this year, but harder to upgrade for a real 6-win gain next year.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Cubs may finally understand the concept of a sunk cost:
http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/6791533/chicago-cubs-willing-absorb-much-alfonso-soriano-contract[/quote]”a source familiar with the situation” = Soriano’s agent.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-chicago-cubs-need-less-jim-hendry/
fang2415Quote Reply
Just reading some Yankee blog tweets, if they for some reason decline the option on Nick Swisher, I wouldn’t mind the Cubs bringing him in, either for RF or 1B.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Just reading some Yankee blog tweets, if they for some reason decline the option on Nick Swisher, I wouldn’t mind the Cubs bringing him in, either for RF or 1B.[/quote]That might be a nice, relatively cheap pickup.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]”a source familiar with the situation” = Soriano’s agent.[/quote]
If it’s true, I could see Soriano moving if an AL GM thought he could get 1 WAR or more out of Soriano’s bat at the DH spot for ~$4 million per year.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]If it’s true, I could see Soriano moving if an AL GM thought he could get 1 WAR or more out of Soriano’s bat at the DH spot for ~$4 million per year.[/quote]I really hope Kenny Williams has one more bonehead move up his sleeve…
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Are we really convinced that Kosuke is that much of a black hole in right? His negative fWAR comes almost entirely from his defense, which anecdotally strikes me as a bit harsh… My eyes (which tell me a lot, just, by looking) make me think of him as a meh defender and an average hitter, so a slightly-below-average player overall.[/quote]Other defensive systems (DRS, Total Zone, Fan Scouting Report, FRAA) rate him above average on defense. His bat is average (below average for a right fielder). I think the best use of him is more or less what the Cubs are doing now: platooning him and batting him leadoff.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I really hope Kenny Williams has one more bonehead move up his sleeve…[/quote]
*crosses fingers* Plus, it’s not like Soriano is a malcontent. Everybody including the President of the I Hate Soriano Society, Dave Kaplan, agrees that he’s well-liked in the clubhouse and one of the hardest workers.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]*crosses fingers* Plus, it’s not like Soriano is a malcontent. Everybody including the President of the I Hate Soriano Society, Dave Kaplan, agrees that he’s well-liked in the clubhouse and one of the hardest workers.[/quote]Yeah, the money is the only thing that makes him hard to move. Wonder if the Yankees would consider him?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, the money is the only thing that makes him hard to move. Wonder if the Yankees would consider him?[/quote]
Do they have a role for him for 3+ years? They can get whoever they want and they have some aging guys that could easily slide to DH and provide better production.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Do they have a role for him for 3+ years? They can get whoever they want and they have some aging guys that could easily slide to DH and provide better production.[/quote]
They should just see if the Angels need another outfielder.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
BJax —> 0-for-4, 3 Ks so far
Yikes. He didn’t take the bat off his shoulders that whole AB. I don’t think he’s picking up this pitcher very well.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]BJax —> 0-for-4, 3 Ks so far
Yikes. He didn’t take the bat off his shoulders that whole AB. I don’t think he’s picking up this pitcher very well.[/quote]That’s the problem with not stressing pitch selection to guys at lower levels when they can make contact with a lot more balls. When they get to upper level(s), the pitchers have better stuff and the hitter needs to employ a skill he’s never acquired. There’s a real problem with the Cubs org, and I’m becoming more and more convinced it’s deeper and more damaging than anyone expects.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That’s the problem with not stressing pitch selection to guys at lower levels when they can make contact with a lot more balls. When they get to upper level(s), the pitchers have better stuff and the hitter needs to employ a skill he’s never acquired. There’s a real problem with the Cubs org, and I’m becoming more and more convinced it’s deeper and more damaging than anyone expects.[/quote]
I’m sure we all heard what Sam Fuld said about the Cubs when he got to the Rays — something to the effect of, “They didn’t teach me jack. They basically said, ‘Go up there and swing aggressively.'”
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
[quote name=Steve Swisher]I’m sure we all heard what Sam Fuld said about the Cubs when he got to the Rays — something to the effect of, “They didn’t teach me jack. They basically said, ‘Go up there and swing aggressively.'”[/quote]
Theriot sort of said the same thing later on.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Mauer’s finally got hit batting average over .300. Unfortunately, his slugging percentage is still low.
ACTQuote Reply
Also, he’s been playing games at first while Butera is catching. People who complain about what a poor hitter Hill is should look at Butera’s record.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Steve Swisher]I’m sure we all heard what Sam Fuld said about the Cubs when he got to the Rays — something to the effect of, “They didn’t teach me jack. They basically said, ‘Go up there and swing aggressively.'”[/quote]Well, the TB org hasn’t really turned Sam’s game around: 13% K-rate with TB this year, which is actually 1% more than his K-rate with the Cubs. Sam Fuld just isn’t very good.
I look more to players like Vitters and Jackson who were players that really needed to be taught pitch recognition and have not seemed to have been taught that skill. Either that or they’ve been taught and both are dumb as a sack of hammers. But if in in the contest of “Whom Is Dumber” I’m forced to choose between the Cubs org and Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters, I’m taking the Cubs every time. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
For those who haven’t heard…
Aaron Heilman —> Phillies (minor league deal)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-chicago-cubs-need-less-jim-hendry/[/quote]
This is a great article, but the comments are even more insightful. Someone refers to “Hendry’s whack-a-mole approach.” That is absolutely perfect.
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Other defensive systems (DRS, Total Zone, Fan Scouting Report, FRAA) rate him above average on defense. His bat is average (below average for a right fielder). I think the best use of him is more or less what the Cubs are doing now: platooning him and batting him leadoff.[/quote]Yeah, that sounds about right to me. But then that means that upgrading him as Wreck suggests would only add 4ish wins instead of 6.5.
Which adds yet another $12M or so to what would have to be spent to turn the team around. Ahem, that is, assuming no overpays.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]For those who haven’t heard…
Aaron Heilman —> Phillies (minor league deal)[/quote]Someone has to throw BP.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Steve Swisher]This is a great article, but the comments are even more insightful. Someone refers to “Hendry’s whack-a-mole approach.” That is absolutely perfect.[/quote]I don’t know if that’s fair. Alou and even Soriano were the right buys, at the right time. Hell, Milton Bradley and Fukudome were smart buys that never materialized, albeit for different reasons. He got Dempster here. There are a lot of reasons to criticize Jim Hendry, but not having a plan isn’t one of them. Having a bad plan, OTOH…
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
This article gives me some home. God damn you, sir.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]This article gives me some home. God damn you, sir.[/quote]
This typo makes me happy.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Quick question, though. Wasn’t part of the reason they contended in 2007 was that the other teams in the division absolutely blew it? That division win gave them ticket sales to make some moves and look like an even better team in 2008. I really think the X factor in this is how shitty this division is.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]This typo makes me happy.[/quote]m and p aren’t even that close on the keyboard.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Quick question, though. Wasn’t part of the reason they contended in 2007 was that the other teams in the division absolutely blew it? That division win gave them ticket sales to make some moves and look like an even better team in 2008. I really think the X factor in this is how shitty this division is.[/quote]And ticket sales this season probably won’t be anywhere near those.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I don’t think pitch selection is Brett Jackson’s problem. Prior to tonight the guy had an OBP 160 points higher than his batting average. The guy is as good at recognizing strikes as just about anybody. He has a swing and miss problem, but so far in his career it hasn’t really been a problem. Despite the guy’s .217 batting average entering tonight, he had a .379 OBP and a .356 wOBA.
That’s the thing with Jackson and dj and I have pointed it out before. Even when he slumps, the guy gets on base a lot.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Yeah, that sounds about right to me. But then that means that upgrading him as Wreck suggests would only add 4ish wins instead of 6.5.
Which adds yet another $12M or so to what would have to be spent to turn the team around. Ahem, that is, assuming no overpays.[/quote]rWAR has Fukudome at 2.5 WAR. He’s probably somewhere in between 2.5 and 0. Go with 1.2 or 1.3. He’s a league average ballplayer.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t think pitch selection is Brett Jackson’s problem. Prior to tonight the guy had an OBP 180 points higher than his batting average. The guy is as good at recognizing strikes as just about anybody. He has a swing and miss problem, but so far in his career it hasn’t really been a problem. Despite the guy’s .217 batting average entering tonight, he had a .379 OBP and a .356 wOBA.
That’s the thing with Jackson and dj and I have pointed it out before. Even when he slumps, the guy gets on base a lot.[/quote]
I hope you’re right. I just worry that as he faces better pitching, those contact rates will drop.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
The contact rates will drop and it’s without a doubt a concern. Still, I’d MUCH rather have a guy with his eye at the plate and ability to take a walk than someone like Josh Vitters. Jackson is going to strikeout a lot and there’s reason to believe it may hold him back, but the day he steps into the Cubs lineup is the day he becomes the most patient or second most patient hitter in the entire lineup. I’m OK with that.
I don’t think he’ll develop the kind of power a lot of people do, but if he can get on base 36-37% of the time in the leadoff spot and steal some bases at a high rate, I’m going to be pretty damn happy.
I’ve lowered my expectations for him quite a bit, but what he’s done in the minor leagues is impressive. This is only his 7th AAA game.
mb21Quote Reply
Does the estimated 25M to spend have Ramirez at 3B for 16M? I can’t seem to find any of the articles…apparently my search abilities have gone limp.
JManQuote Reply
Like DJ said, Brett jackson was a fantastic pick at the time (31st overall). It was the first and maybe only draft pick other than Mark Prior that got me really excited. At the time I was hopeful the Cubs were putting more emphasis on getting on base and was thrilled to see them draft a college hitter who had strikeout issues, but walked all the time. It was so un-Cub. Draft picks fail, but that was the right pick.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=JMan]Does the estimated 25M to spend have Ramirez at 3B for 16M? I can’t seem to find any of the articles…apparently my search abilities have gone limp.[/quote]I’m going to post an update tomorrow and start a series looking at potential players to add to the team and what kind of contracts may work out. I’m using this article by Wreckard as inspiration, but I’ll have something up by noon tomorrow.
mb21Quote Reply
If Jackson can play some great defense with a decent OBP and some 15-20HR power then he easily becomes the best CF the Cubs have had since the pre-ASB Corey Patterson for league minimum. I’ll take that everyday.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]rWAR has Fukudome at 2.5 WAR. He’s probably somewhere in between 2.5 and 0. Go with 1.2 or 1.3. He’s a league average ballplayer.[/quote]League average OF with solid defensive reputations and flashy OBP should be nice trade pieces at the deadline. Shame the Cubs can’t take advantage.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I think the Cubs come away with a high potential reliever for Fukudome. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them target a guy who they think will become their closer.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’m going to post an update tomorrow and start a series looking at potential players to add to the team and what kind of contracts may work out. I’m using this article by Wreckard as inspiration, but I’ll have something up by noon tomorrow.[/quote]Awesome – looking forward to the article. Hat-Tip to Wreckard…nicely done with this article. It’s been a subject in my mind for the past few weeks but you’ve framed it clear and succinct.
I’m envisioning a Byrd-Jackson-Beltran OF next year unless they can couple Byrd with a reliever to obtain a 1B.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think the Cubs come away with a high potential reliever for Fukudome. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them target a guy who they think will become their closer.[/quote]
Why would they need a closer? Marmol isn’t going anywhere.
/Hendry’d
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I think the Cubs come away with a high potential reliever for Fukudome. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them target a guy who they think will become their closer.[/quote]I’d really like to see Hendry try and stockpile some position players.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’d really like to see Hendry try and stockpile some position players.[/quote]I don’t know that he’s going after any player that can’t be in the ML by next year. He all but said he is only looking for players that can help very soon with Soriano being the only exception as they should take any deal they can get.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]I don’t know that he’s going after any player that can’t be in the ML by next year. He all but said he is only looking for players that can help very soon with Soriano being the only exception as they should take any deal they can get.[/quote]That sounds like the words of man who is looking for an excuse for an inert trading season. I really hope Hendry is gaming the system, because this team has been stuck on stupid since July of 2009, and failing to capitalize on the opportunity to clear the decks and do an honest rebuild would just be an extension of stupidity.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I have a friend (Cards fan) who thinks Pujols is heading for the DL in a big way with plantar fasciitis and other health issues, and that the Cards won’t and shouldn’t re-sign him. On the other hand, this same friend also argued with me that Mike Matheny was a better catcher than Yadier Molina because “he knew how to handle pitchers.”
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That sounds like the words of man who is looking for an excuse for an inert trading season. I really hope Hendry is gaming the system, because this team has been stuck on stupid since July of 2009, and failing to capitalize on the opportunity to clear the decks and do an honest rebuild would just be an extension of stupidity.[/quote]Hear, hear!!
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I have a friend (Cards fan) who thinks Pujols is heading for the DL in a big way with plantar fasciitis and other health issues, and that the Cards won’t and shouldn’t re-sign him. On the other hand, this same friend also argued with me that Mike Matheny was a better catcher than Yadier Molina because “he knew how to handle pitchers.”[/quote]
Matheny = Cards’ version of Koyie Hill?
Then again it’s not like Yadier Molina is an offensive force most of the time, but he is a superb catcher.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Matheny = Cards’ version of Koyie Hill?
Then again it’s not like Yadier Molina is an offensive force most of the time, but he is a superb catcher.[/quote]
People actually liked Matheny.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Hear, hear!![/quote]I love that Hendry said he wasn’t having a fire-sale but could still trade Pena, FUkudome, Grabow, Byrd and possibly Ramirez and Soriano. How the hell is that not a firesale?
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]I love that Hendry said he wasn’t having a fire-sale but could still trade Pena, FUkudome, Grabow, Byrd and possibly Ramirez and Soriano. How the hell is that not a firesale?[/quote]
I’ll believe it when I see it. I bet Fukudome is gone, but that’s it. The ones we want gone, nobody wants, and the ones that bring a return won’t be traded. I have no faith at all in anything they do anymore. At this point, a monkey throwing darts would make more strategically sound decisions than the currrent guys in charge (who also aren’t going anywhere, BTW).
Aisle424Quote Reply
Random stat of the day:
Cubs are last in the league with -12 Ultimate Baserunning Runs
Next worst? Dodgers at -5.
Wow.
ACTQuote Reply
Aramis somehow has -5 baserunning runs all by his lonesome. In the majors, only Konerko is worse.
ACTQuote Reply
I’m amazed Aramis has stayed at third base so long. He’s one of the slowest guys in the universe.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ll believe it when I see it. I bet Fukudome is gone, but that’s it. The ones we want gone, nobody wants, and the ones that bring a return won’t be traded. I have no faith at all in anything they do anymore. At this point, a monkey throwing darts would make more strategically sound decisions than the currrent guys in charge (who also aren’t going anywhere, BTW).[/quote]That last sentence is what discourages me the most. The Cubs are going to be the Orioles of the NL.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]People actually liked Matheny.[/quote]He had one really good year, offensively. Koyie is still working on it. Why is Koyie a switch hitter? Wouldn’t he be better off just improving on one side rather than sucking at both sides? Or is it impossible for him to pick a strong side?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]i just cant figure out why Rhoderick isnt up yet. just fucking release grabow already[/quote]
it’s like you made him nervous! He faced 8 batters tonight and it went like this…
Line Drive Single
Ground Ball Single
Ground Ball Single
Strikeout
Walk
Fly Ball Double
Line Drive Single
Fly Ball Double
.1 IP 6H 7ER 1BB 1K & Gameday has an “Injury Delay” mixed in there 1 batter prior to him being replaced.
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
It’s possible (maybe probable) that Koyie took up switch-hitting because he struggled against same-hand pitching, and it may be extremely difficult for him to learn how to do so at this stage. I’d say it’s most likely that he’s helping himself by switch-hitting, since he has almost no platoon split (his career wOBA is .256 from both sides). Really, switch-hitting is his one advantage as a hitter right now, and I wouldn’t encourage him to give that up.
ACTQuote Reply
And, frankly, I don’t think Koyie is capable of improving as a hitter. He hasn’t lacked in practice or coaching. He just isn’t skilled in that area (compared to MLB hitters), and is probably performing to the best of his abilities. He’s at least fortunate that he has the platoon advantage every time he comes to the plate and that he plays a position that demands little in the way of offense.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That last sentence is what discourages me the most. The Cubs are going to be the Orioles of the NL.[/quote]
That would be true if the Orioles org went to great lengths to shit on Cal Ripken, Jr. (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing) at the media assuming a deal was done. I saw the owners voted unanimously for the new CBA and wondered why everyone was so optimistic the players would agree.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
And (dying laughing) at the fans who are decrying the players for “being greedy.”
Yeah, who cares if the owners changed the proposed CBA to benefit them?! The players should think about anonymous people they’ve never met who REALLY want to watch them on TV!
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Yeah, Ryno, that was my first thought as well. It makes the owners look good if the players don’t approve it. The players are the bad guys!
mb21Quote Reply
The players won’t let them get away with that. They’ve already told the media they haven’t even received a full revised cba yet.
I really can’t believe all the media ran with the owners’ approval as the league starting up. Some media outlets were reporting that FA would start Wednesday and had laid out the whole timeline.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
So Wreckard posted this over at BCB.
This may be more difficult than just saying it.
Also, Carlos Beltran? He’s 35, and though he is having a fine year, I’d be concerned about him suddenly declining.
Join us for complete MLB coverage at SB Nation’s Baseball Nation
by Al Yellon on Jul 21, 2011 5:54 PM CDT reply [/quote]
This may be more difficult than just saying it? WTF?!
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://www.csnbayarea.com/07/21/11/Maiocco-Players-owners-not-even-close/landing.html?full_args=07/21/11/Maiocco-Players-owners-not-even-close/landing&blockID=542881&feedID=5936
Yeah, those horrible greedy players! (dying laughing)
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Why did no one tell me about this BCB thread?
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/7/21/2287245/a-few-more-words-about-civility
MishQuote Reply
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/7/21/2287245/a-few-more-words-about-civility#72457083
The guidelines still crack me up. It’s just a massive loophole. Don’t post anything you wouldn’t say to someone’s face. Seems simple enough.
A lot of funny in there.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Why did no one tell me about this BCB thread?
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/7/21/2287245/a-few-more-words-about-civility%5B/quote%5D
I was busy going through it and (dying laughing)
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]I was busy going through it and (dying laughing)[/quote]
I just had a nice 10 minutes going through that thread. Posts like this should at least warrant Unobstructed Views so we are aware.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]So Wreckard posted this over at BCB.
This may be more difficult than just saying it? WTF?![/quote]I don’t know. I’m in Jamaica.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know. I’m in Jamaica.[/quote]
You know you miss Alvin
in your ass.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I just had a nice 10 minutes going through that thread. Posts like this should at least warrant Unobstructed Views so we are aware.[/quote]
I was going to post it, but I wouldn’t say it to someone’s face.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]I was going to post it, but I wouldn’t say it to someone’s face.[/quote]Because they’re not just a user name.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]And, frankly, I don’t think Koyie is capable of improving as a hitter. He hasn’t lacked in practice or coaching. He just isn’t skilled in that area (compared to MLB hitters), and is probably performing to the best of his abilities. He’s at least fortunate that he has the platoon advantage every time he comes to the plate and that he plays a position that demands little in the way of offense.[/quote]Yeah, that’s probably true enough. It just seems like for a guy who was probably never going to be a great offensive player (at a position where offense is secondary) that early on he would have tried to focus his energy on at least hitting lefties well or something. But if he would only be an average hitter there and a terrible hitter against righties, might as well try to limit the damage.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Because they’re not just a user name.[/quote]
I’m so tired of that.
/hall monitor
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
When I read Alvin’s comments and posts, I constantly want to ask him this question:
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
the idea of people signing a work contract that binds them for 10 years without reading it is crazy. that fans are pissed that players arent doing just that speaks to how stupid sports makes people
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]the idea of people signing a work contract that binds them for 10 years without reading it is crazy. that fans are pissed that players arent doing just that speaks to how stupid sports makes people[/quote]
To fans, “selfish” is players not signing a cba they haven’t seen in full. But it’s OK to want them to do that for entertainment one day per week in the fall/winter.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
a part of my wants the union to never return because if the players are supposed to give up being in Doty’s court then they should not be a union and use Sherman Anti Trust as their main defense. Because if the players ever had the will and $ to see it through there is no way a court would rule that its legal to force people into employment through the NFL draft or that Franchise Tags are ok.
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]a part of my wants the union to never return because if the players are supposed to give up being in Doty’s court then they should not be a union and use Sherman Anti Trust as their main defense. Because if the players ever had the will and $ to see it through there is no way a court would rule that its legal to force people into employment through the NFL draft or that Franchise Tags are ok.[/quote]
You and Alvin combine to use the right amount of commas.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’m going to post an update tomorrow and start a series looking at potential players to add to the team and what kind of contracts may work out. I’m using this article by Wreckard as inspiration, but I’ll have something up by noon tomorrow.[/quote]Can’t wait. I really did a half-ass job of summarizing the options to fill in those black holes – it really needs to be its own article.
Also it should use something better than 2011 projected WAR – obviously Beltran’s not going to be a 6 WAR player next year, and I agree with the assessment elsewhere in this thread that Fukudome’s WAR is probably too low due to UZR sampling errors.
The WreckardQuote Reply
Doesn’t the same thing apply with the MLB Draft, dj? I think it’s bullshit that players don’t get to choose where to work and I’m fairly certain that if they challenged it there’s no way they would lose.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]You and Alvin combine to use the right amount of commas.[/quote]
(dying laughing) good point
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Doesn’t the same thing apply with the MLB Draft, dj? I think it’s bullshit that players don’t get to choose where to work and I’m fairly certain that if they challenged it there’s no way they would lose.[/quote]
sure. imagine for a second if a court ruled that was ok. Then it would have to be ok for everyone. People at walmart would get franchised tagged
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]Can’t wait. I really did a half-ass job of summarizing the options to fill in those black holes – it really needs to be its own article.
Also it should use something better than 2011 projected WAR – obviously Beltran’s not going to be a 6 WAR player next year, and I agree with the assessment elsewhere in this thread that Fukudome’s WAR is probably too low due to UZR sampling errors.[/quote]It’s going to end up being multiple parts. I want to take a look at not only the projected value going forward of various players on the Cubs, but also potential free agents.
mb21Quote Reply
it should all work the way that MLB international free agents sign. There are people who play that sport if you want them on your team go pay them.
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]sure. imagine for a second if a court ruled that was ok. Then it would have to be ok for everyone. People at walmart would get franchised tagged[/quote](dying laughing) that would be funny.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]it should all work the way that MLB international free agents sign. There are people who play that sport if you want them on your team go pay them.[/quote]Exactly and dumbass Selig is trying to get an international draft.
mb21Quote Reply
As long as there’s a players union, there’ll be a draft.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
There has to be a draft. There would be even less parity in the league. That’s the only way some teams can stay remotely competitive. If not, every prospect will sign with the big market teams because they will pay them the most.
MuckerQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]There has to be a draft. There would be even less parity in the league. That’s the only way some teams can stay remotely competitive. If not, every prospect will sign with the big market teams because they will pay them the most.[/quote]
I used to think that, but the landscape of college football has swayed me. These days, the NFL finds you no matter where you play college ball. So kids go where they can play and showcase their abilities.
If there were no NFL draft, Andrew Luck wouldn’t sign with GB because they’re the best team. He’d sign with SF since it would provide him with the best combination of playing time, scheme fit and geography.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]I used to think that, but the landscape of college football has swayed me. These days, the NFL finds you no matter where you play college ball. So kids go where they can play and showcase their abilities.
If there were no NFL draft, Andrew Luck wouldn’t sign with GB because they’re the best team. He’d sign with SF since it would provide him with the best combination of playing time, scheme fit and geography.[/quote]I was referring to the baseball draft mostly. But it does relate to the NFL draft also. But you’re right. Obviously in the NFL, the top QB coming out isn’t gonna want to play for the Packers, Falcons, and the other teams who are set with young QBs. But you definitely see it in free agency where players go to the money. And it would probably be a matter of time before rookies start doing the same thing.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]There has to be a draft. There would be even less parity in the league. That’s the only way some teams can stay remotely competitive. If not, every prospect will sign with the big market teams because they will pay them the most.[/quote]Even with the draft, players are reluctant to sign with, say, the Nationals.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]I used to think that, but the landscape of college football has swayed me. These days, the NFL finds you no matter where you play college ball. So kids go where they can play and showcase their abilities.
If there were no NFL draft, Andrew Luck wouldn’t sign with GB because they’re the best team. He’d sign with SF since it would provide him with the best combination of playing time, scheme fit and geography.[/quote]
Yes, but the talent would still gravitate towards the big markets. If they are the kind of talent that would play no matter what, there is no reason to do so in Indianapolis when they could in New York, Chicago, Dallas, etc. By and large, the rest of the league would get the sloppy seconds of any incoming class from college if players could choose to play where they want.
The biggest teams would have the best recruiting teams and the gap between have and have not would widen and it would become boring. Say what you want about false parity, but it does keep the league interesting for most of the teams every year.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Even with the draft, players are reluctant to sign with, say, the Nationals.[/quote]They had to bury Jayson Werth in money, and all they got out of it was Jayson Werth.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Even with the draft, players are reluctant to sign with, say, the Nationals.[/quote]I don’t know. Strasburg, Harper? They got them to sign and they were the two biggest prospects in the last 50 years probably. It’s interesting with baseball because when you draft, you don’t own the rights of the player. So if you can’t sign him, he can say “fuck you” and play college for a year and get redrafted. In football, I think you own the rights of that player so if you can’t sign him, you still own his rights. I could be wrong about that though.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Muckey]I don’t know. Strasburg, Harper? They got them to sign and they were the two biggest prospects in the last 50 years probably. It’s interesting with baseball because when you draft, you don’t own the rights of the player. So if you can’t sign him, he can say “fuck you” and play college for a year and get redrafted. In football, I think you own the rights of that player so if you can’t sign him, you still own his rights. I could be wrong about that though.[/quote]It seems like those guys held out for crazy money because they knew the Nationals would be more desperate to have good signees. That was my perception anyway. Maybe they would have made the same money anywhere,
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]It seems like those guys held out for crazy money because they knew the Nationals would be more desperate to have good signees. That was my perception anyway. Maybe they would have made the same money anywhere,[/quote]Yeah you’re probably right. But at least with the draft, the Nationals had the opportunity to try and sign them. No draft, the Natinals probably don’t even get their phone call answered.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Yes, but the talent would still gravitate towards the big markets. If they are the kind of talent that would play no matter what, there is no reason to do so in Indianapolis when they could in New York, Chicago, Dallas, etc. By and large, the rest of the league would get the sloppy seconds of any incoming class from college if players could choose to play where they want.
The biggest teams would have the best recruiting teams and the gap between have and have not would widen and it would become boring. Say what you want about false parity, but it does keep the league interesting for most of the teams every year.[/quote]
I agree and I’m probably the biggest draft backer on this site, but I really think the draft component of parity is overstated.
HS players go to Alabama because they want to win, but it’s more because they know they’ll get NFL-caliber coaching. DB’s in Texas go to Texas because they know it’s the best combination of scheme, coaching and exposure to get them to the NFL.
Amateur pitchers would go to teams with the best track record of producing successful pitchers. And so on.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
This is the kind of shit that pisses me off. The NFL owners are getting rich (and claiming they’re losing money, but whatever). Many NFL players are getting rich, but a lot aren’t as well. I bet a lot of these NFL players are trying to earn enough money in the next five to 10 years (at best) to last them the rest of their lives.
So shut the fuck up about your boring offseason or your fantasy football team or you having to do shit other than watch TV on Sundays.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]the idea of people signing a work contract that binds them for 10 years without reading it is crazy. that fans are pissed that players arent doing just that speaks to how stupid sports makes people[/quote]I invite any person mad at the p[layers to come and be my employee for the next 10 years. I will, of course, keep the terms of their employment to myself, but trust me when I say, the terms are quite fair and so you don’t need to see them. Just come and work for me.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
ok how about this. You keep the salary cap. That gives every team the same amount of cash so their isnt a Yankees vs Royals thing but you abolish the draft and say sign whoever. That would put all the onus for success on your scouting & development.
dylanjQuote Reply
Hit or error?
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=17039349
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]ok how about this. You keep the salary cap. That gives every team the same amount of cash so their isnt a Yankees vs Royals thing but you abolish the draft and say sign whoever. That would put all the onus for success on your scouting & development.[/quote]It would have to be a hard cap like the NHL has. Might work. Never happen, though.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Al’s on a roll today:
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/7/22/2282680/how-to-use-baseball-nation
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/7/22/2285954/how-to-use-baseball-nation-part-deux
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Al’s on a roll today:
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/7/22/2282680/how-to-use-baseball-nation
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/7/22/2285954/how-to-use-baseball-nation-part-deux[/quote]A post about posts about posting posts.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/2012-nl-central-champion-cubs-part-1.html
mb21Quote Reply
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/7/22/2282680/how-to-use-baseball-nation?login=1311347187
(dying laughing)
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
KOWOH is on it.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply