The Cubs announced on Saturday that Andrew Cashner would be the team's 5th starter and that Marcos Mateo had claimed the final bullpen spot. This leaves Carlos Silva off the roster and the Cubs will try to trade him. That's not going to happen so the Cubs will eat about $5.6 million assuming some team picks him up and pays him the league minimum.
It's nice to see the Cubs make the right decision here. This was one of those unique situations where there was only a bad decision. Keeping Silva as the 5th starter and making it even less likely that Cashner would ever be that productive for this team would have been a terrible decision. Cashner will have to have his innings total watched this season, but that should be relatively easy to do with him being the 5th starter.
While it's the right decision, which is certainly nice to see from this organization, it was also a decision that didn't require much thought. Maybe the Cubs didn't put as much thought into it as they led us to believe. That's entirely possible. There's nothing wrong with making Cashner feel he has to earn that spot and if he's terrible in spring training, well, maybe you look more at Casey Coleman or even Braden Looper as the team's 5th starter.
Cashner isn't a star and it's not likely he'll ever be one. He definitely has the potential be a number 2 starter or maybe even a number 1, but he's probably more of a number 2 or 3 once he gets familiar with pitching at the big league level. If he does turn into that, that's excellent production for a player making league minimum. He has his work cut out for him though.
He struggled after getting called up and moving to the bullpen last season. He'd spent the previous two years trying to get stretched out after being a college closer for 2 seasons. He was a starter early in his college career, but he settled into the closer role quite nicely for TCU. He always had the potential to start and the Cubs would have been foolish to draft him in the 1st round and not try him as a starter. It was rather odd when they moved him to the bullpen for a few appearances in the minor leagues. He'd just finally gotten stretched out and was getting deeper into games than he had the previous 2 seasons. Once you build the strength up like that you'd like to work on building up the durability so that he can regularly work deep into a game. That didn't happen and that's what the Cubs will be doing in 2011. Or at least that's what they'll be doing if they Cashner's best interests at heart.
Each of the last 3 years on Another Cubs Blog, we have come up with playing time projections by having the readers enter in the number of innings pitched or plate appearances they expect out of the player. The projection systems themselves are limited when it comes to playing time. They aren't aware of injuries. They aren't aware of what role the team is going to use the player. And so on.
We projected 88 innings as a starter for Cashner and 44 innings as a reliever. We weren't yet sure which role he'd have to begin the season, but know he is now in the rotation it stands to reason that our projected innings pitch total would be slightly higher. However, considering his age and the face he didn't throw that many innings last season, it's not like the Cubs can expect Cashner to throw 200 innings. I don't have the time to ask all of you what you think as far as playing time goes so I'm going to use my own updated projection. I'll now say 135 innings as a starter and 25 innings as a reliever. So there's not much of an increase overall, but i don't think the Cubs can afford to let him pitch more than 160 to 170 innings in 2011.
The average projection system projected Cashner to have a 4.45 FIP or for those who prefer ERA, 4.33. I use FIP because it measures the pitcher's value by ignoring the defense. It's only a component and we'll talk more about that later, but it works especially well for trying to figure how many wins above replacement (WAR) a pitcher is worth.
The 4.45 FIP and the projected innings makes Cashner worth 1.4 WAR in 2011. Not bad for 135 innings as a starter, but 4.45 is a little worse than average. There's also the potential he exceeds that average projection, but an equal chance he'll perform worse. In my opinion, the best way for him to be a 1.4 WAR projection is to throw more innings and I'm not sure the Cubs should allow that considering his workload a year ago.
It will be fun to watch Cashner in 2011. Expect some bumps along the road and hopefully he shows improvement throughout the season.
The Cubs also added Marcos Mateo to their 25-man roster on Saturday. He'll be the team's final reliever. He had a good cup of coffee with the Cubs last season and will start out in low leverage situations. The Cubs have 3 late inning options this season and I wouldn't be surprised to see Mateo settle in as the 4th best reliever. Not that there's anything to brag about as far as that's concerned, but I think he easily has the potential to be superior to the other arms in the bullpen not named Kerry Wood, Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol.
I'll take a closer look at Mateo in a few days.
Comments
I am now quite interested in the season since Cashner will be starting. I like the rotation and there’s a reason to watch each day. I’m a huge Z fan, but Dempster has been favorite player to watch over the last few years. Wells is frustrating, but can be pretty good and I’m anxious to watch Garza.
mb21Quote Reply
what’s this obstructed view thing?
i’m confused.
wv23Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I am now quite interested in the season since Cashner will be starting. I like the rotation and there’s a reason to watch each day. I’m a huge Z fan, but Dempster has been favorite player to watch over the last few years. Wells is frustrating, but can be pretty good and I’m anxious to watch Garza.[/quote]It should definitely be more entertaining to watch the opponent’s half of every inning. Fortunately, the Cubs’ half won’t usually last very long.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=wv23]what’s this obstructed view thing?
i’m confused.[/quote]It’s a new weblog. It’s a new thing on the internet these days. Everyone is starting their own weblog.
mb21Quote Reply
i thought i just commented. is this dump screening me?
censorship.
wv23Quote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]It should definitely be more entertaining to watch the opponent’s half of every inning. Fortunately, the Cubs’ half won’t usually last very long.[/quote]Yeah, I think this offense has the potential to once again be one of the worst two or three in the league. If they get some rebounds from Ramirez and Pena as we expect they won’t be that bad, but they’ll still be below average.
mb21Quote Reply
oh, wait, there it is.
computers are hard.
wv23Quote Reply
[quote name=wv23]i thought i just commented. is this dump screening me?
censorship.[/quote]what happened? You did comment once before this one.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=wv23]oh, wait, there it is.
computers are hard.[/quote]No wonder you don’t know about weblogs.
mb21Quote Reply
so who all is writing for this thing?
wv23Quote Reply
What have you been up to WV?
mb21Quote Reply
Looks great, guys. Love the heading.
I agree with MB – I still don’t think there’s a realistic shot at the playoffs, but the Cubs are at least interesting to watch this year. I want to see what Cashner can bring, want to see how the former Rays play, and it’ll be nice to have a solid back end of the pen.
Serbianking33Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]What have you been up to WV?[/quote]just trying to eke out a living.
wv23Quote Reply
This is the first year since I was about 3 that I didn’t know what day the Cubs first game of the year was. And I have a ticket to it. (dying laughing)
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]This is the first year since I was about 3 that I didn’t know what day the Cubs first game of the year was. And I have a ticket to it. (dying laughing)[/quote]That’s pretty bad. It’s on Friday for the first time this year. Hope you didn’t make other plans. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]That’s pretty bad. It’s on Friday for the first time this year. Hope you didn’t make other plans. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Just gotta figure out a way to get out of work, and find where I put my long underwear and hip flask b/c it’s gonna be freezing. Actually, the Cashner news got me excited for the season for the first time, so now I’m actually looking forward to it starting. Too bad he’s not pitching Friday.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
Site looks great. I don’t expect much out of the team this year, but am definitely looking forward to watching Cashner pitch. Although Brenly’s country hardball jocking will probably be insufferable.
PFDQuote Reply
I’m ditching class on Tuesday to go to Starlin Castro bobblehead day, and watch Cashner pitch.
GBTSQuote Reply
does anyone know if their is a cub game tomorrow?
dylanjQuote Reply
does anyone know where my grammar has gone?
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]does anyone know if their is a cub game tomorrow?[/quote]I think there is
MishQuote Reply
Uh oh – Hendry’s back at stabbing people in the back via the newspapers:
“Obviously, we’re dealing with a man that at this particular point in his career is not willing to face the facts,’’ general manager Jim Hendry said, “that what he’s done the last few years, except for a two-month period is well below major league standards and who seems to have the continual problem of blaming everybody but himself.’’
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/4534810-419/cubs-release-carlos-silva.html
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
this blog would have been way better if it would have added this guy to the roster
http://isthereacubsgametoday.com/
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Uh oh – Hendry’s back at stabbing people in the back via the newspapers:
“Obviously, we’re dealing with a man that at this particular point in his career is not willing to face the facts,’’ general manager Jim Hendry said, “that what he’s done the last few years, except for a two-month period is well below major league standards and who seems to have the continual problem of blaming everybody but himself.’’
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/4534810-419/cubs-release-carlos-silva.html%5B/quote%5D
http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/03/27/jim-hendry-milton-bradley-er-i-mean-carlos-silva-is-a-bad-dude-who-had-to-go/
The futile cycle repeats…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]this blog would have been way better if it would have added this guy to the roster
http://isthereacubsgametoday.com/%5B/quote%5D
We spent all our extra capital trying to lure the lakeview nights guy over here
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]does anyone know where my grammar has gone?[/quote]
It’s tough to concern oneself with grammar in these exponential times.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m cautiously optimistic Cashner can beat that projection. Especially since he’s the number five, and the team should be able to limit his innings as a result, I think the Cubs can prevent themselves from overworking him.
After his bad first inning the other day, he looked really, really good– even looked like he threw some good changeups which got him some swings and misses.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]We spent all our extra capital trying to lure the lakeview nights guy over here[/quote]
He should have been Mark McKinney in the Kids in the Hall promo.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]He should have been Mark McKinney in the Kids in the Hall promo.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Player for UNC has “mercurial” speed. CBS commentators fail both grammar and mythology.[/quote]
… and chemistry.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]”Obviously, we’re dealing with a man that at this particular point in his career is not willing to face the facts,” general manager Jim Hendry said, “that what he’s done the last few years, except for a two-month period is well below major league standards.”[/quote]
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
(dying laughing), shawn.
I’m going to start writing something on Hendry tomorrow. I don’t know where it will end up, but a lot of shit has happened since I last took a look at what kind of job he’s done. I feel like it’s necessary to take another look.
mb21Quote Reply
Someone should just give Silva a bottle of ambien and a Sylvia Plath book and look the other way. No…that’s terrible. But then again, so is he. This would at least be one of the few times that the Cubs are cutting their losses and getting the fuck outta there.
mikjones24Quote Reply
Yeah, Mike, this was one of those situations where you’re simply a better team by releasing him. His contract is a sunk cost and there’s no reason to pay him to be worse than replacement level when someone like James Russell is more than capable of doing the same for the league minimum.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing), shawn.
I’m going to start writing something on Hendry tomorrow. I don’t know where it will end up, but a lot of shit has happened since I last took a look at what kind of job he’s done. I feel like it’s necessary to take another look.[/quote]
He had lived off of cashing in on good contracts to Lilly and DeRosa for a while. That, and the Trib going on a spending spree before selling the franchise.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
Not just Lilly and DeRosa though. All 3 of Dempster’s contracts were either good to great deals for the team before they were signed. Both contracts Ramirez signed with the Cubs were well below market value. The same is true for Z’s contract. Rumor was the Angels were going all in on Z and it was going to be close to Zito’s contract the previous offseason.
The Lilly and DeRosa deals turned out to be great, but were each poor deals at the time they were signed. In fact, I think of all the contracts Hendry has given out, no player was more overpaid per season than Ted Lilly was. If I recall, he was worth about $12 million over 4 seasons and got more than 3 times as much. Plus, nobody would have signed Lilly for 4 years. He was probably worth a 2-year deal for around $7-8 million.
I can’t remember what DeRosa was worth, but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t a 3-year contract. Personally, I think those two contracts were the beginning of the end for Hendry. They were terrible contracts when they were signed and he got lucky. I wonder if he just had a hunch that they’d be better and since that hunch was proven correct he’s continued to think his or his scouts hunches will be accurate.
mb21Quote Reply
Off the top of my head, I’m wondering if the Cubs are really good at re-signing their own players and really, really bad at signing free agents. I have to look to be sure though.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]
I can’t remember what DeRosa was worth, but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t a 3-year contract. Personally, I think those two contracts were the beginning of the end for Hendry. They were terrible contracts when they were signed and he got lucky. I wonder if he just had a hunch that they’d be better and since that hunch was proven correct he’s continued to think his or his scouts hunches will be accurate.[/quote]
I’ve likened him to a gambler before and I don’t even think he is a good gambler. It seems like he’s the guy who split his Kings once and it worked out, so now he always does it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ve likened him to a gambler before and I don’t even think he is a good gambler. It seems like he’s the guy who split his Kings once and it worked out, so now he always does it.[/quote]That was a great article you wrote and it’s probably accurate too.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Off the top of my head, I’m wondering if the Cubs are really good at re-signing their own players and really, really bad at signing free agents. I have to look to be sure though.[/quote]
I bet most teams are better at signing their own players because they know the most about them and players do tend to give at least some sort of hometown discount when deals are re-upped. So the teams are probably more informed about decisions and they aren’t paying full market value up against other bidders (real or imagined).
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ve likened him to a gambler before and I don’t even think he is a good gambler. It seems like he’s the guy who split his Kings once and it worked out, so now he always does it.[/quote]
That gambling analogy was much more concise and eloquent than all that axe-grinding and aging curve stuff I did over at ACB (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I bet most teams are better at signing their own players because they know the most about them and players do tend to give at least some sort of hometown discount when deals are re-upped. So the teams are probably more informed about decisions and they aren’t paying full market value up against other bidders (real or imagined).[/quote]
Also, if you sign them to a contract extension before they become free agents you usually get them signed at a lower rate in exchange for signing it now and not risking an injury or slump bringing their value down.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
The Cubs should be more informed about their own players, but there seems to be something that’s off. Like I said though, I need to look at it more thoroughly. What’s standing to me as I think about it right now is that the Cubs pay well below market value for players they’re re-signing, but well above market value for other team’s free agents. In the end it’s resulted in the overall value of contracts being about equal to what’s been paid. Roughly.
Maybe I’m just making shit up.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’ve likened him to a gambler before and I don’t even think he is a good gambler. It seems like he’s the guy who split his Kings once and it worked out, so now he always does it.[/quote]
That’s a good analogy.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]The Cubs should be more informed about their own players, but there seems to be something that’s off. Like I said though, I need to look at it more thoroughly. What’s standing to me as I think about it right now is that the Cubs pay well below market value for players they’re re-signing, but well above market value for other team’s free agents. In the end it’s resulted in the overall value of contracts being about equal to what’s been paid. Roughly.
Maybe I’m just making shit up.[/quote]
Isn’t this generally the case for all teams though?
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
[quote name=shawndgoldman]Also, if you sign them to a contract extension before they become free agents you usually get them signed at a lower rate in exchange for signing it now and not risking an injury or slump bringing their value down.[/quote]That’s one thing I don’t think I considered. For 3-year deals or longer teams get about a 10% discount. No idea what kind of discount they get for their own players, but assuming they sign them before reaching free agency, it’s probably another 10% for long-term deals. That will change the results significantly.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=shawndgoldman]Isn’t this generally the case for all teams though?[/quote]Probably is. I’m probably making too much of something that doesn’t exist.
mb21Quote Reply
I take back what I said about Gordo printing Quade’s f-bombs. After seeing the video, I was pretty suprised to see Quade f’ing and blinding with an ESPN microphone and a video camera in his face. And then the way he bent over backwards to own up to the situation — all a bit stagey IMO.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Also, I watched that Soriano play and didn’t hear any booing. There was a loud “ohhh” or “awww” when he didn’t make the running play, but that’s NOT the same as a boo.
Either that wasn’t the same play, the booing was very localized in the crowd, or Levine was making shit up.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Also, I watched that Soriano play and didn’t hear any booing. There was a loud “ohhh” or “awww” when he didn’t make the running play, but that’s NOT the same as a boo.
Either that wasn’t the same play, the booing was very localized in the crowd, or Levine was making shit up.[/quote]
I most definitely heard boos during the play I saw, but IIRC my twitter feed correctly, there was another point in the game where Soriano made a “flub” as well.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]I most definitely heard boos during the play I saw, but IIRC my twitter feed correctly, there was another point in the game where Soriano made a “flub” as well.[/quote]Must have been a different play. I was talking about the one in the clip that MO(?) posted last night.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
So now we give faget points to posts instead of posters?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Alvin]My opinion is not “wrong”.[/quote]
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Sorry, it’s not old yet. (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
My brain legitimately hurts trying to process this.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]My brain legitimately hurts trying to process this.[/quote]Exactly.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
If Cashner struggles in the rotation, I’ll bet Tyler Colvin could step up and transition as the new #5. His performance doesn’t matter. He could actually become a starting pitcher.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]My brain legitimately hurts trying to process this.[/quote]
If only you had Charlie Sheen’s brain.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I just love that to Alvin it’s groundbreaking news that a 24 year old former #1 pitching prospect in the organization could make the transition to a #5 starter.
GBTSQuote Reply
Marc Hulet has his Top 100 prospects up at FanGraphs – not terribly different than the other ones going around, but he has the Cubs’ Chris Carpenter sneaking in at 97, which surprised me.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]Marc Hulet has his Top 100 prospects up at FanGraphs – not terribly different than the other ones going around, but he has the Cubs’ Chris Carpenter sneaking in at 97, which surprised me.[/quote]Carpenter might be able to make the transition to number 5 starter in the future.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Carpenter might be able to make the transition to number 5 starter in the future.[/quote]Agreed. His performance in that role won’t matter either.
GBTSQuote Reply
Whoa I like the new site guys, its so……different. (dying laughing)
Nice to see the Cubs finally realizing Cashner’s bullpen test is over too (for now)
LukasQuote Reply
mb21Quote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Agreed. His performance in that role won’t matter either.[/quote]Correct.
AndCountingQuote Reply
got any mock drafts for me ST?
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Lukas]Whoa I like the new site guys, its so……different. (dying laughing)
[/quote]It took me awhile to adjust, frankly.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]got any mock drafts for me ST?[/quote]
How about a 4-round mock of what I’d do.
1. Peterson, CB, LSU
2. Jabaal Sheard, DE/OLB, Pitt
3. Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa
4. Curstis Marsh, CB, Utah St.
4. Sione Fua, NT, Stanford
I’d bet anything that Dallas jumps up to 6 and takes Peterson if he’s available that low, though. In that case, I’d go:
1. Quinn, DE/OLB, UNC
2. House, CB, NM State
3. Stanzi
4. Marsh
4. Fua
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Links from Tango are always much appreciated: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/new_baseball_blogs/
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Links from Tango are always much appreciated: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/new_baseball_blogs/%5B/quote%5D
Horrible link. -1 faget point
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
new: http://obstructedview.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=99:nl-central-preview-houston-astros&catid=47:major-league-baseball&Itemid=229
mb21Quote Reply