Anthony Rizzo: Not a disappointment

In Getting to Know... by myles14 Comments

As a Cubs fan (ostensibly – why would you read this otherwise?), you really haven't had many reasons to cheer this year. Arguably, the most exciting good thing is that the one the Cubs' tradeable pieces didn't get hurt long enough to be traded (Jake Arrieta, hello! I wish it was 2009 so I could be excited). We've seen Starlin Castro go from "young budding star" to "young, fairly cost-controlled average SS" to "well, he could rebound, right?" to "holy shit, is that Jeff Blauser in Starlin Castro's uniform?" Shark's season has been up and down (though the peripherals are still there). Matt Garza has been great so far, but the return for him is going to underwhelming and you should brace yourself for that fact right now.

One thing I don't get, though, is the imagined struggles of Anthony Rizzo. People have chattered about his regression and poor year so far, but I'm not seeing it. Sure, his .241 average is not exactly desirable. However, his 44 point drop in BA basically matches his 43 point drop in BABIP. I'm not all that worried or interested in Rizzo's batting average, to be perfectly honest. I'm much more interested in his on base percentage and his power numbers. His OBP has fallen this year, but only slightly (.342 to .328). His SLG is also 22 points lower (.463 to .441), but that's a function of his reduced BABIP: his ISO this year is actually up to .201 from .178. 

Peripheral-wise, Rizzo has made some gains this year. His walk rate has climbed from 7.3% to 10.4% (and in the minors, his rate was always from the 9% to 12% range), while his strikeout rate climbed modestly to 17.9% (it was ~22% in the minors). His batted-ball statistics do tell a story of slight regression, with an additional 7.2% flyballs this year eating into the more productive types of contact. Lastly, PITCH f/x tells us that Rizzo is swinging much less often (down to 45.7% from 50.5% – he went from well above average to right at it). This is very consistent with an increased number of walks. His contact numbers haven't regressed meaningfully, so he's extending at bats by not swinging at balls (and, of course, striking out slightly more often by not swinging at some strikes). When he does swing, he's still fouling it off or putting in play – those balls just aren't really falling in for hits. 

Rizzo was projected this year to hit somewhere around .267/.343/.484. He's currently sitting at .241/.328/.441. If his BABIP was .297 (what it was projected – he's currently at .267 which could be his true talent level, who knows?), he'd be somewhere like .272/.354/.473. I know that's not how it works, but I'm just floating it out there.

Rizzo is in his age-23 season. Post-integration, 55 players have been 23 and played at least 80 games at 1st. In that group, Rizzo is 37th in OPS+ – tied with Eric Hosmer (also 23 this year). There are some good players below him (Mark Teixiera, Chris Davis), and some bad ones above him (Ike Davis, Ike Davis). True, Rizzo isn't Eddie Murray. However, we aren't paying him to be Eddie Murray. We're paying him to be pretty young and pretty good. Right now, he's both, and he's going to get better.

 

 

 

Or, he could turn into Starlin Castro, and Cubs fans will start to wonder if Julio Zuleta got a hold of Rizzo's uniform.

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  5. Suburban kid

    When Anchorman came out, my kid had the DVD and I watched a few minutes of it but dismissed it as too stupid to bother, even though I like Will Ferrell and dumb humor. It seemed to be trying too hard with the dumb stuff.

    Flash forward nearly a decade of declining personal standards and I felt the need to try it again. It was very enjoyable, but the most remarkable thing was the 7,654 references I got from being on interweb message boards like this during the interim.

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  7. Akabari

    Myles wrote:

    As a Cubs fan (ostensibly – why would you read this otherwise?)

    Did you forget this blog is maintained by a bloviating Yankees fan?

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  9. dmick89

    I think it might be fair to say that Rizzo has been disappointing so far. I don’t think he’s been as disappointing as a lot of #CubsNation probably does, but I was expecting a better performance than he’s given so far. His projection entering the season was about around .360. As you said, there’s some promising signs (better walk rate, ISO). However, he’s slightly above average at the plate at a position in which you need to hit better than that. If his BABIP improves we should see some better numbers, but right now, I think it’s at least fair to say he’s had a disappointing season.

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  11. dmick89

    @ GW:
    Could go either way?

    You’ve been higher on Rizzo than a lot of people. Well, at least me anyway. Not that I haven’t thought highly of him, because I do. I think you’ve thought more of him than I do. What would you say about his performance so far?

    Compared to Castro, he’s been a superstar so you’re not going to hear me complain about Rizzo. Overall I think he’s been OK, but I understand #CubsNation being disappointed.

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  12. GW

    @ dmick89:

    (dying laughing) no, I agree with you assessment that he’s been somewhat dissappointing, though I don’t think it makes that big a difference in what we should expect from this point forward, as Myles points out. he definitely hasn’t taken the big leap forward that I had hoped for.

    the thumbs down would be on principle for the propagation of the cubs nation hashtag.

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