I'm pretty excited about the lower levels of our second basemen, but that's not to say that everything is roses. There's a good chance that the entire upper two levels of minors turns over completely by the end of the year (save Watkins, who might actually graduate to the majors by the end of 2013).
Filling those gaps will be some exciting names, though. One in particular to look for his Gioskar Amaya, who is one year away from being a Top 100 consideration.
| Last Year | 2013 | Career | |||||||||
| Name | Age | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | pwOBA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
| MLB | Barney | 27 | 0.254 | 0.299 | 0.354 | 0.287 | 0.292 | 0.263 | 0.305 | 0.349 | 0.289 |
| AAA | Cardenas | 24 | 0.300 | 0.381 | 0.461 | 0.370 | |||||
| Amezaga | 35 | 0.271 | 0.333 | 0.369 | 0.317 | ||||||
| AA | Watkins | 23 | 0.281 | 0.383 | 0.422 | 0.376 | |||||
| Samson | 25 | 0.280 | 0.333 | 0.300 | 0.297 | ||||||
| A+ | Torreyes | 20 | 0.264 | 0.326 | 0.385 | 0.328 | |||||
| A | DeVoss | 22 | 0.249 | 0.382 | 0.370 | 0.354 | |||||
| A- | Amaya | 20 | 0.290 | 0.381 | 0.496 | 0.403 | |||||
| Rk | Lockhart | 20 | 0.216 | 0.297 | 0.300 | 0.288 | |||||
| Bote | 20 | 0.224 | 0.342 | 0.336 | 0.329 | ||||||
The league average wOBA for a 2nd baseman last year was .302.
MLB
Darwin Barney is an interesting player. The organization will tell you he's part of the core, and defensively that might even be true. On offense, though, he's about a full standard deviation from where he needs to be. You have to be Ozzie Smith reincarnate to compensate for a .299 OBP, but Barney did provide some value at the position last year through his glove. He's projected for a modest increase in wOBA (to .292), and that's livable when the average hovers around .300. All things considered, Barney is an average 2B for a below-average price. That has some value.
AAA
Adrian Cardenas has usually always brought the lumber in the minor leagues, and for one reason or another never really got a fair shake in the bigs. He's a minor league FA, so I don't know where he ends up next season, but if you think he's got no future as a starter in the majors (the Cubs obviously think this) he's probably got some value as a utility infielder. Depending on how the Stewart/Valbuena battle ends up, Cardenas could easily see a MIF future on the Cubs next year (40-man options right now: Lake/Watkins/Villaneuva/Vitters). Alfredo Amezaga is old, and terrible. He's one of the roughly googol signings the Dodgers made this offseason, so he's their problem now.
AA
The future is bright for one Logan Watkins. I'm not too sure why he doesn't get more press: he is relatively young, takes his walks, has average power for the position, and has done all of those things consistently for 5 years in the minors. SSS warning here, but he also just finished eviscerating the AFL this year (over 40 PA, so take it extremely extremely extremely lightly). He's seen time as a SS and CF and even some 3B, so he's a good bet to be a utility infielder in 2014 if he doesn't win that job outright in 2013 (or even 2B if Barney is traded/bombs). Nate Samson must be bald or something, he doesn't have any power to speak of (that's terrible, I'll show myself out). He signed on with the Reds to languish in their middle minors next season.
A+
Ronald Torreyes was part of the Sean Marshall trade (alongside maybe sexist Dave Sappelt and Travis Wood), and he's been just sorta okay (considering how good he was B.C.). He's still only 20, but struggled pretty badly this year in his first taste of A+ ball (relative to his other seasons). He's a real boom/bust BABIP guy (never between .275 and .370 in his career), and he puts the ball in play a TON (low walk rate, very low strikeout rate), so he's got lots of chances for luck to play a factor in his game. It's really odd that his BABIP so wildly fluctuates given this fact, but se la vie (and SSS). He was hit-unlucky last year and still was better than the average 2B while being league-young, so don't get the wrong impression; I was just expecting him to torch A+ and he didn't.
A
Zeke DeVoss fell to Earth pretty hard last season, but the fact that he maintained a .354 wOBA over 581 PA is still very impressive. He's not young relative to his league, but he's still a 2011 draftee, so he's got plenty of time. He's probably 3rd on my list of 2B Cubs prospects, but still a good one nonetheless. He might not stick at 2B so a change to CF (and a diminution of his status) might be incoming.
A-
Gioskar Amaya might be the best 2B prospect in the system (though Watkins is definitely more likely to make it to the big leagues). As a 19-year old in A-, Amaya slugged .496. That was good for third in the Northwest League: 1st and 2nd were a pair of 22-year old corner infielders. His K% rate is a major flaw that will need to be addressed before he turns into Brett Jackson, but he's a slick fielder that hits for average and power. That's a pretty nice combination.
Rk
Daniel Lockhart hasn't impressed since being the 10th round pick in the 2011 draft. He'll be 20 this season, but in his first 2 Rookie League seasons his number indicate that he was very outmatched. He's still young, but doesn't look at all promising. David Bote had 150 PA in rookie ball this year and did pretty well (as well as a .226 average can). He had gap power and drew his fair share of walks. He's got a long way to go, but as a 2012 draftee the world is still ahead of him.
I haven't done enough research on all of the other positions, but I'd be surprised if there was another position the Cubs were better at then 2B (excepting CF, maybe). They don't have a Baez or Soler at the very top of the list, but the depth is really astounding (and I consider Bruno to be a 3B. If he sticks at 2B, that's another pretty intriguing prospect). Just glancing at other people's lists for prospects, it really does shock me how little love there is for Watkins. He strikes me as a low-ceiling, high-floor guy, where you don't think he'll ever make an all-star game but wouldn't be surprised to see him log productive time for a dozen years. I'd order them Amaya, Watkins, DeVoss, and Torreyes (though DeVoss is a real threat to go to CF).
Projected Rosters
MLB: Barney/Valbuena/Cardenas?
AAA: Watkins/Cardenas?
AA: Torreyes
A+ DeVoss
A: Amaya
A-: Bote/Lockhart
Comments
Is the offensive profile much different for 2B vs CF? What I mean is, similar to a prospect moving from 3B to 1B and having to produce more offense to be of value, how does that compare to moving from 2B to CF?
EdwinQuote Reply
IIRC, Torreyes got off to an awful start and then turned it around about midseason.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Edwin:
I think CF might even be a bit worse, but I’d have to look.
Also, I happen to be a big fan of Barney. It’s not that I think he’ll be great or anything, but I do think he’s average to better than average and at what the Cubs are paying him that’s quite valuable. I don’t expect much from him at the plate so bat him 8th and be happy with what you get, but he’ll add a win or more defensively. He’s that good.
dmick89Quote Reply
Edwin wrote:
2B last year had a wOBA of .302
CF last year had a wOBA of .323
MylesQuote Reply
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/01/could-cubs-actually-compete-in-2013/
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
That was my optimistic prediction. I do actually think they have decent shot of reaching the playoffs. I think it’s more likely they won’t. A lot of things have to go right for them to play in October, but they’re a better team than I was thinking.
If I was going to be a little money on how many I thought they’d win, I’d probably go with 72. I think they’re about a 75-win (true talent) team. Factor in a few guys getting traded and typical Cubbery and I think you have a 72 win team.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 is gaining quite the reputation as the blogosphere’s top optimist (dying laughing)
MylesQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmPmpUTr22c
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Finally!
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Myles:
When the
fuckfudge did this happen?I guess we should clean it up around here since with this recent popularity there may be more more readers…. does this mean we’ll have to actually talk about the Cubs now?
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
That’s what the forum is for. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
False.
Cast Iron CookwareQuote Reply
I just want to see a team that can reasonably be projected to reach .500. Once we assemble that kind of roster anything can happen.
GBTSQuote Reply
I think peace in Israel can be achieved within the next five years.
DMick, Internet OptimistQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
seriously? unless you and i have a very different definition of the word “decent”, i’d have to disagree with this. unless the rest of the division is just that bad?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
does anyone know if bbref lists injury history? i would assume they do. i looked around and couldn’t find it….figured it would take less time to just ask here than to keep looking.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I plan on making a prediction post in the middle of spring training, but I’m having a really hard time penning the Cubs for more than 74-77 wins right now. That being said, a team projected to win 77 games has just about a 3-4% chance of making the playoffs. That might not be “decent,” but it is “existent.”
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
The 2013 Cubs: They Exist
gbts22Quote Reply
Myles wrote:
Aisle424Quote Reply
There’s always a chance the Cubs can compete this year, but I doubt anybody is holding their breath. They will still have one of the worst offensives in the NL and that bullpen is still shittastic.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
That’s mostly correct.
OPS Breakdown
First Half: .585
Second Half: .824
———
April: .630
May: .382
June: .923
July: .849
August: .633
His overall number .711 was good for 32nd in the FSL.
What I found most interesting about Torreyes is that for the season he struck out 29 times and walked 32. Even when he was struggling in April & May, he was still walking more than he was striking out. I’m excited to see how he plays when he gets out of rainout city (Daytona).
Chet MastersonQuote Reply
There is way to much Hope™ and talk of Cubs and Playoffs in this thread. Am I at the right place? Is this Bizzarro OV?
WaLiQuote Reply
Wasn’t someone in an earlier thread comparing these Cubs to last year’s A’s and Orioles? That comparison doesn’t seem fair, but I’m too lazy to calculate right now.
AkabariQuote Reply
@ Akabari:
They do both put on exhibitions of base ball. They are more similar than you think.
gbts22Quote Reply
http://www.bostonmagazine.com/articles/2013/01/boston-sportswriters-awful/
GWQuote Reply
We’ve recently received news that OV has won a very prestigious award. We had a lot of competition this year and we frankly were thrilled to even be mentioned in the same breath as such worthy competitors as Rant Sports and Bleed Cubbie Blue. But when we got the e-mail from a Mr. This Site Fucking Blows notifying us that we are, indeed, the Worst. Site. Ever. I couldn’t even believe it.
Thank you to everybody who contributed to this site being the Worst, whether you wrote terrible, classless posts while refusing to do a Q&A with Rant Sports or were a fun-sucker in the comments, or if you just mysteriously disappeared one day (Ryno, AC), this Alvie is for all of us.
WE DID IT!!
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
A team that is a “true talent” 74 wins can always catch luck with pitching health, babip, and key injuries in-division and win just enough to sneak in. It’s unlikely, especially for the Cubs, but it’s possible. I think 1 standard deviation is 11 wins or something, so that would put them at 85 on the lucky side. Stranger things have happened than an 85 win team making the playoffs.
26.2cubfanQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Wait a minute. Do we get hate mail? You guys have been holding out on me!
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I don’t know how much we get. I think MB shares at least the good ones with us. i’m actually surprised we don’t get more antagonistic comments and/or mail. I think the people who are most comfortable on BCB probably just come here and leave shaking their heads.
Aisle424Quote Reply
When’s the last time there’s been a BCB infiltration and subsequent banning? Has there been any additions to the BCB wall?
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker wrote:
I got blocked on Twitter, but I can still comment over there if I want to.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I remember that one thread about 3 years ago when there was like 5 ACBers that got banned from there in like a 15 minute timeframe. It was epic.
MuckerQuote Reply
122,681.
That’s the number of comments Yellon Fever has made on his website. Just as a point of comparison, that’s roughly 8,000 more posts than people in the 2 most populous towns in Wyoming (Casper and Cheyenne, with 55k and 59k people, respectively) combined.
122,681 comments, and all of them meaningless.
MylesQuote Reply
New Aside: http://obstructedview.net/aside/cubs-minor-league-system-ranked-10-by-john-sickels.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
Myles wrote:
Correct.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Myles wrote:
He has a rule where he bans three people before each comment.
GBTSQuote Reply
gbts22 wrote:
I think this would have won the 2013 Motto contest (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cee Angi is organizing a Chicago Baseball Hot Stove Get Together Party for anyone who likes drinking and/or baseball. If you don’t know Cee, she writes for SB Nation and has her own blog at http://www.baseball-prose.com/. So if you’re in the neighborhood, come on by. I’ll probably be there, barring anything unforeseen coming up.
http://www.facebook.com/events/360393184068812/
(Full disclosure: Yellon has been invited – though as of right now, he has not said if he’s going).
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
It could go either way.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’m taking a wait and see approach.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Myles wrote:
Not all meaningless. How would anybody know what a misting station is otherwise?
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
It might be more appealing for me to go to Chicago for that than a Cubs game this year. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
Did they ever figure out who owns the Cubs?
This is important.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
We don’t get much at all. You’re right that if people are comfortable with BCB and come here and don’t like it, they’ll leave shaking their heads.
This site isn’t for everyone. The discussion of the Cubs is scattered throughout the comments, which probably alienates some Cubs fans. I think we do a good job of eliminating the silly comments you’re talking about by having high quality articles. Most of the time we’ll back up our arguments pretty well in the post and if we don’t, someone will call us out for it.
We have more opinions in common than we don’t (it’s what attracts us to this place), but we disagree a lot and we do so without pissing matches. There are a lot of intelligent people on this site. Sometimes I feel like the dumbest person around and I like that. It was one of the things I was most proud of with ACB and the same goes here. Why am I proud I’m often the dumbest person? Because we have done something right to attract more intelligent people and that’s awesome in my opinion. Not to mention, I learn a lot more being around people who aren’t dumber than me. Even after all these years of doing this, learning about baseball and other shit is still what keeps me around.
One last thing, we might be a more tight-knit community than other places. We all tend have a similar sense of humor and interest in discussing various topics not related to the Cubs. I know I received a few emails when ACB was around about people not wanting to jump in and comment because they would feel out of place. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s still the case here.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ DMick, Internet Optimist:
3 years.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wow. This has to be a good thing, right?
cwolfQuote Reply
@ cwolf:
That’s awesome.
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/tangotiger-now-consults-with-cubs.html
dmick89Quote Reply