The future at SS is pretty bright. The Cubs' minor league system features a consensus Top 20 prospect (albeit one with a low floor), an organizational Top 15 prospect (albeit one with a huge issue), and a guy that has incredible tools (though SS might not be his final destination). Without further ado, lets get to it.
| Last Year | 2013 | Career | |||||||||
| Name | Age | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | pwOBA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
| MLB | Castro | 23 | 0.283 | 0.323 | 0.430 | 0.323 | 0.341 | 0.297 | 0.336 | 0.425 | 0.330 |
| AAA | Tolbert | 31 | 0.240 | 0.313 | 0.304 | 0.282 | |||||
| AA | Lake | 23 | 0.248 | 0.300 | 0.380 | 0.356 | |||||
| Soto | 23 | 0.220 | 0.310 | 0.282 | 0.286 | ||||||
| A+ | Alcantara | 21 | 0.302 | 0.339 | 0.447 | 0.356 | |||||
| Baez | 20 | 0.188 | 0.244 | 0.400 | 0.288 | ||||||
| A | Baez | 20 | 0.333 | 0.383 | 0.596 | 0.432 | |||||
| Hernandez | 20 | 0.210 | 0.249 | 0.299 | 0.251 | ||||||
| A- | Hernandez | 20 | 0.283 | 0.306 | 0.413 | 0.333 | |||||
| Rk | Penalver | 19 | 0.273 | 0.341 | 0.322 | 0.321 |
The league average SS had a wOBA of .300 last season.
MLB
Starlin Castro is the real deal. 2012 was arguably his worst season as a professional: he was still 7th among qualified shortstops last year in wOBA. He turns 23 this year: we are lucky to have him. Sure, he could walk more or commit fewer errors, but there comes a point when you just have to accept that Castro isn't perfect, but he does a ton of things very well, and he's improving as a player in many areas.
AAA
Only Matt Tolbert's parents care about Matt Tolbert. He's over 30 and can't hack it in the PCL. I can't find information regarding his status with the club: I'm assuming he's gone, and he should be.
AA
Junior Lake is a curious sort. He's got incredible tools (the only 80 arm in baseball, according to some scouts), and he's generated some pretty decent numbers in his slog through the minors. The knock on Lake is his apparent inability to hit a baseball (or field one, either). He's got Brett Jackson-like strikeout numbers, but he doesn't walk like Brett Jackson does (though his walks aren't always completely terrible). He's been in the Cubs' system for 5 years now and only made it to AA: some people thought he was going to beat Castro up to SS and that obviously hasn't happened. He should break with AAA this year, maybe at 3B, and have one last year to put it together. Their is clear talent there, but it may never materialize. (Aside: I saw him play in person once during the 2011 season. He looked like complete dogshit, for what's it's worth (almost nothing.)) Elliot Soto is an afterthought, as many who can't outslug their OBP are.
A+
Arismendy Alcantara showed some pop last year (.145 ISO) and some speed (24 SB), two parts of his game that are relatively new in the toolbox. Alcantara is cutting down on the strikeouts as he ages: this is a good thing, because they were at a terrible rate. Arismendy does not walk nearly enough to get by, so he'll really need to cut down on strikeouts if he wants to play in the majors some day. He's moving in the right direction; an increase in his walk rate would elevate him to the next level of prospecthood.
Javier Baez is the real deal. He annihilated A ball this year, with an absurd .263 ISO and .432 wOBA. Just for shits, I put in his Peoria numbers into a MLE generator, and his line was .235/.269/.377: that OPS is basically Yunel Escobar or Alexei Ramirez or Stephen Drew. He can definitely field SS: the reservations on that have basically been laid to rest. He's no sure thing, and he did struggle in a late-season promotion to A+. I'm not at all worried about that, though: his BABIP in A+ was .200: his walk numbers were actually up (and his K%), and his power was still a very nice .213 ISO. There are whispers that Baez could just start 2013 in AA. I'm not sure I like that (Alcantara deserves to start there), but it would be a nice sign that the Cubs FO is as in love with Baez as we are.
A
Marco Hernandez is an all-glove prospect. He draws rave reviews for his defense, and in A- he even hit fairly well (he puts the ball in play with alarming frequency). The wheels fell off in a promotion to A ball, and he's got plenty of interesting prospects in front of him. If he grows into his size, he might get some more power (he has some already) and be a really interesting piece; if he doesn't, he might end up on a major league roster some day as a backup middle infielder.
A-
None. Hernandez was here, and got promoted. Stephen Bruno is a 3B prospect, to me.
Rk
Carlos Penalver actually has quite a bit of data on him (516 PA over two years). He's shown an ability to take walks and put the ball in play… but he has very, very little power (see Elliot Soto for my thoughts on people with OBP higher than SLG). I can't pretend to know his body (6-0, 170, so he'll likely grow into some power), but it has to be encouraging to see a 19-year old with his plate discipline. He's still a few years away from being in the periphery.
There are some huge talents here. Baez is the #1 prospect in the organization. Alcantara and Hernandez or almost certainly in the Top 15, and Lake has more tools than both of them (and might be in my Top 15 or so as well). All of this is moot because the guy in the majors is already a franchise cornerstone. SS is one of the hardest positions to fill, and the Cubs are absolutely loaded with prospects there (even if Baez ends up at 3B (which I doubt unless it's because of Castro), Lake ends up at LF, and Alcantara ends up at 3B) . Get happy!
Projected Rosters
MLB: Castro/Barney
AAA: NRI (Lake will play 3B, likely?)
AA: Alcantara/Soto
A+: Baez
A: Hernandez
A-: Penalver
Comments
Well that game was a kick to the crotch.
RynoQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/04/white-sox-announcers-hawk-harrelson-and-steve-stone-havent-gotten-along-for-two-years/
MishQuote Reply
Mish wrote:
In other news, today there are reports that the sky is blue, and other very obvious things.
Hawk Harrelson is the Frank Caliendo of broadcasting.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Speaking of, Caliendo was involved in ESPN’s lead up to the Super Bowl last week. Why is this guy still a thing?
MishQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
Your pulling the power cord strategy almost worked.
WaLiQuote Reply
http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/02/04/wow-the-chicago-cubs-have-the-5th-best-farm-system-according-to-keith-law/
MishQuote Reply
Mish wrote:
3 words: People Are Stupid
MylesQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
And Leon’s getting laaarger.
RynoQuote Reply
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/32471/how-the-cardinals-use-sabermetrics
MishQuote Reply
Mozeliak is, unfortunately, very good at his job.
MylesQuote Reply
Nice writeup, Myles. SS is pretty loaded for the Cubs, but it does come with a great deal of downside at the same time. I’m not sure any of these guys have much skill when it comes to getting on base. For everything that Baez does well (a whole lot), his 3.8 NIBB% rate is horrible. Small sample to this point and there’s plenty of reason to believe he can improve, but he has to improve significantly.
To Baez’s credit, he does rack up the HBP. If you use BB% = (BB-IBB+HBP)/(PA-IBB) it’s a more respectable 7.1%, but still not good at all.
There’s a lot we don’t know about Baez yet. His low BB% could just be because he’s been too advanced for his level, but even those guys tend to take more walks. He’s only had 339 plate appearances so who knows?
I wouldn’t mind seeing him at AA, but I think A+ is best because he still needs to work on his game.
Both Baez and Lake offer tremendous talent, but have something seriously wrong with their game at the same time.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Ryno:
You’ve had some good luck as a fan the last few years (Rangers, 49ers), but have suffered a few kicks to the nuts. They’ve got to hurt.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think Keith laws ranking is about correct. I think the following people will make it onto his top 100
Soler
baez
Almora
Paniagua
Vizcaino
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
mb, enjoying your cycling of Pink Floyd avatars.
MishQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
I think top third is right, but I don’t know about top 5. Then again, it depends entirely on how you rank them. Ceiling? They might be 5th. I don’t know. I’d prefer a combination of ceiling and likelihood that a player reaches it. After all, who gives a shit about a player’s a ceiling if there’s little chance of him reaching it (Junior Lake)?
I also think it depends whether you believe Vizcaino can start or not. Two organizations didn’t believe he could. The Cubs will obviously give it a shot, but his injury history suggests someone who will end up in relief. Many scouts think that too and the Cubs are well aware of this. If you think he’s a reliever then the Cubs really have no impact pitching that’s going to be ready anytime in the next 4 or 5 years.
I think any ranking between 5 and 25 is fair. It’s just how you come up with the list. The Cubs have some top shelf talent. No doubt. A lot of those players also have a very low ceiling.
If someone wants to argue they’re 25th because they don’t have any elite talent, well, they’re full of shit. At the same time, if someone wants to argue they’re 5th because they have several can’t miss prospects, they’re also full of shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Mish:
I ran out of Grateful Dead and JGB stuff so I had to move on. I have no fucking clue what I’ll do next.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
You can make little pictures of box scores of all the Cubs games from last year and cycle through those. You can get through all of them by opening day if you change your avatar thrice a day.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Oooh, there’s gotta be an entire library of Cubs players facepalming too.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Oh, I can’t pretend there isn’t downside. Baez seriously needs to walk more and strike out less. Lake has a whole host of problems. Hernandez may never, ever hit. Alcantara is going to need to walk a bunch. I’m still excited, because there are several prospects that all have upside, so when fails, we can still dream on
MylesQuote Reply
Sharing this awesome comment (#4) from this thread: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/le_batard_issues_of_morality_in_sports_exist_in_confusing_gray_area#When:16:43:41Z
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
That might be the best internet comment ever.
dmick89Quote Reply
aside: http://obstructedview.net/aside/best-comment-ever.html
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Pretty much has to be the Marshall Tucker Band, right?
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
dmick89 wrote:
I guess that makes it official (dying laughing).
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I’ve seen better.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Are you an expert on best internet comments? If not, then STFU!
WaLiQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
2008: Texas gets shut out of the BCS title game over a bullshit tiebreaker.
2009: Colt gets knocked out of the BCS title game.
2010: Rangers get destroyed in WS.
2011: Rangers blow the WS with one strike to go…twice. Niners fumble away NFC Championship game.
2012: Niners blow Super Bowl with bad play-calling inside 2 minutes.
Fun seasons but I’m getting tired of the annual crotch kicks.
RynoQuote Reply
What really sucks about last night’s super bowl, is that we definitely take the lead on 2nd down if we get the snap off in time. We had Kaepernick rolling to the weak side and Frank Gore blocking against a safety with half the field.
That said, I fully realize that gives BAL the ball with about 1:50 to go and three timeouts needing only a field goal to at least tie (depending on whether SF converts the 2).
RynoQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/mlb-offseason-power-rankings/
MylesQuote Reply
Ryno
It could be worse.
2008: Best record in NL, swept in first round
2009: Maybe the most talented Cubs time in my life and everything goes wrong
2010: bad
2011: terrible
2012: terrible^2
dmick89Quote Reply
There are some soccer fans here so I’m curious what soccer fans, in general, think about this: http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/match-fixing-champions-league-game-1585390
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think it’s just different. It was easier to be a 49ers fan when they sucked. It just wasn’t as fun.
I think being a fan of a good team is like being bipolar. Being a fan of a bad team is like being on lithium.
RynoQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think the 2004 Cubs were much more dissapointing IMHO
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
2008 cubs led Bubbles to setting his mark prior jersey on fire after game one, smashing his gamecube after game two,, and after fame three doing a lot of blow and then kicking a tire so hard i broke my foot.
Did not take that well.
2007 just did a lotta blow.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
More disappointing than what? The Cubs were good, but they weren’t anywhere near as good as the Cardinals who won a billion games that season. The Astros were as good or better than the Cubs. Disappointing? Sure, but they weren’t even close to the best team in their own division and maybe not even the 2nd best team.
dmick89Quote Reply
If 2003 didn’t happen, the 2004 Cubs are remembered in the same way the 2001 Cubs are.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno wrote:
True, for the fans that recognize the team isn’t very good, that’s pretty much exactly right. However, the Al Yellon’s of the world think the Cubs can be the best team every single year. You never know. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I want to say they were in First place right when i went to college in August…
THe reason i loved that team:
Wood
Prior
Z
Clement
Maddux
Lee
Ramirez
grudz/walker
Alou
Sosa
Corey
NOMAHHHHHHHH
Barrett
that team was dope
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
(dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Sports suck.
RynoQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
May 1st: 14-9, tied for 1st with Astros (Cubs had the 7th best record in the NL from May 1 through end of season)
June 1st: 27-24, 4th place
July 1st: 43-35, 2nd place, 3 out
August 1st: 57-48, 2nd place, 10.5 out
September 1st: 73-60, 2nd place, 15.5 out
The Cardinals could have lost every game in September and the Cubs might not have even won that division (Astros were 3 behind the Cubs on September 1st).
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Mish:
@ dmick89:
Fuck the Cardinals.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Hmm it was the astros then… I remember Barrett might have had a blowup in one of the astros games
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
That’s not the point.
The 2004 Cubs roster seemed awesome at the beginning of the year.
Possibly even more than the 2009 team
Suburban kidQuote Reply
First Ryno shows up, and now two more of the AWOL OV bros turn up on the news. What are the odds MO would get picked up hitchhiking in Fresno by AC?
http://thedailyedge.thejournal.ie/man-who-thinks-hes-jesus-subdued-by-axe-wielding-hitchhiker-782215-Feb2013/
Suburban kidQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
GBTSQuote Reply
http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/02/04/chicago-cubs-sign-minor-league-free-agent-yeiper-castillo/
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
You know the Cubs have no pitching when they’re signing 24 year old guys who haven’t pitched above A ball.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jed Lowrie ——————> A’s
dmick89Quote Reply
Well done, Aisley…
http://www.lamebook.com/a-win-for-tim/a-win-for-tim/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
@ dmick89:
@ bubblesdachimp:
Considering the Hope/Optimism that surrounds us Cubs fans (77 wins this year? Com’on!) I always thought Paul Simon wrote “Something so Right” about us:
When something goes wrong
I’m the first to admit it
I’m the first to admit it
But the last one to know
when something goes right
Well it’s likely to lose me
It’s apt to confuse me
It’s such an unusual sight
I can’t get used to something so right
Something so right
SVBQuote Reply
Of course, it’s unlikely we’ll have to get used to something so right for awhile.
SVBQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
At least on the surface, seems like a good move for both teams, but maybe better for Houston.
SVBQuote Reply
Ryno in your unbiased opinion was that a good no call on Crabtree?
GBTSQuote Reply
Keith law top 100 day!!!!
Bubbs educated guess based on a top 5 rating and his hatred for Brett Jackson and Heavy D
Baez 13 (Think there is a chance he breaks top ten. Keith Loves him. Regardless this is still a huge jump for him since he was in the 90’s a year ago)
Almora 36 (Seems to love his instincts as a GG CF that can hit for average and power. special player)
Soler 39 (Power real big, speed, real big, arm real big let me tell you how i live (if not read in a manny fresh voice you did that incorrect)
Vizcaino 87 (I think K Law is one of the few left who think he can start. He also i dont think will downgrade him for routine surgery)
Paniagua 100 (Can see Keith rolling with him just because its #100. If not i see him on the just missed. But he wrote a lot of good things about him at instructs, and quite frankly if we don’t have 5 on this list not sure we got to #5 overall)
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Just as a comparison this is our list in 2011
Chicago Cubs
1. Trey McNutt, RHP (66)
2. Brett Jackson, OF
3. Chris Carpenter, RHP
4. Josh Vitters, 3B
5. Jay Jackson, RHP
6. Hayden Simpson, RHP
7. Robinson Lopez, RHP
8. Brooks Raley, LHP
9. Reggie Golden, OF
10. Matt Szczur, OF
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Ah jeez
Suburban kidQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
This says volumes about the 2011 list (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Bubbs has thankfully kicked that problem. College was a crazy time. Did not help that the Cubs broke his heart three times in 5 years there.
2004, 2007, 2008
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
So thankful that issue will never EVER happen again. Just not sure what Wilken was thinking…. Maybe this is the year he will break out!!!
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Rock and roll version of the Lee Elia tape:
http://youtu.be/XcM2_ZjTLK8
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
I’m a bit overweight, but it doesn’t help that the Cubs have sucked balls for my entire life.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Still, glad you’ve kicked the habit.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Hey you graduated… just a shade under a decade too.
WaLiQuote Reply
Well to be fair bubbs was there for 4.5 years. (FIVE FOOTBALL SEASON PLAN) But in theat time there were four cub meltdowns.
When i got to college i had a Nomah shirsey. My alst semester i had a Harden one.
Bubbs loves July pickups
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
I really think 2003 made me more sad then anything else. Bubbs turned 18 when Doug Clanville pretty much hit the triple and was so sure we were going to the world series.
Then Josh Beckett and Urbina
Then Prior
Then when Wood hit the homerun i was 100%%% convinced we had it.
Only to end with Paul Bako feebly tapping out.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Is this the thread where we talk about our bad habits?
dmick89Quote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
This should teach Bubbs a thing or two about certainty, shouldn’t it?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Yea, dont ever trust in the fucking cubs
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Baez 31, Almora, 33, Soler 42 Candelario just missed
little surprised
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Add Vizcaino 64
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Uhhh, #31? That seems really low.
Without reading the article, KLaw must REALLY believe Candelario is sticking at 3B.
MylesQuote Reply
Will post the scouting reports if cool with the powers that be
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
GBTS —–> Tottenham v. Fulham, March 16
GBTSQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Keep in mind Baez’s atrocious walk rate. To this point we have mostly glanced over it, but it’s a huge issue and it’s a big enough problem that it would keep it from having any success whatsoever at the big league level. If it doesn’t get better, it may even be so bad he doesn’t even get past the high minors.
I think it’s something to watch. I think he can improve, but I don’t know. It’s early in his career, but he needs to start showing improvement or his value will only drop.
I think he’s only a top 10 if you ignore the problems with the walks and instead focus on all the rest he does well. I don’t think that would be a useful list. It’s a list that would probably deserve Junior Lake being in the top 100.
dmick89Quote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
I’m cool with it.
Ass Cum HarryQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
This was the rationale for where he was. He is pretty much either a superstar or bust with very little middle ground.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Long answer: My unbiased opinion is that it was inconsistent with earlier holding/PI calls. I think you have to call holding there, as it’s clearly beyond five yards and you can clearly see jersey being pulled (on the official’s side).
Even if you agree with Simms that Crabtree was shoving off, then call off-setting fouls and replay the down.
I thought the non-call sucked, but so did the helmet-to-helmet hit on Crabtree on the previous play, the blatant holding on the safety and the kick return after the half and a few others. I thought BAL was screwed out of a late hit on the Flacco rollout as well.
Ultimately, I’m most disappointed SF didn’t get the second down play off from the five right after the two-minute warning. That was an easy six. If you said the Super Bowl could come down to SF needing a TD with two minutes to go with first and goal from the seven, I’d have taken that in a second. They just blew it.
The only thing I take solace in is that I’m pretty sure BAL would have gotten into field goal range and won it. And that’s why I’m watching a lot of film on DBs available in this draft.
RynoQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Short answer: No.
RynoQuote Reply
Breaking Bad fans……..here’s an interview with Dean Norris (Hank)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/04/breaking-bad-dean-norris-hank_n_2615390.html?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl15%7Csec3_lnk3%26pLid%3D265823
MuckerQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
COYS
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Billy ran around with the rare old crew
And he knew an Arsenal from Tottenham blue
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I know this is a baseball blog and all, but I was reading a fun thread on the NFL Draft forums. Who’d you want and who’d you get?
2012: Wanted Stephen Hill, got AJ Jenkins: We’ll see…
2011: Wanted Robert Quinn, got Aldon Smith: Thought Smith was a slightly less talented Quinn without the medical problems.
2010: Wanted Earl Thomas and Brian Bulaga, got Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati: A good ball-hawking safety would have been nice in the Super Bowl…
2009: Wanted Brian Orakpo, got Michael Crabtree: Both are top players at their position. If they took Orakpo here, I would have wanted JJ Watt in 2011. How crazy would that defense be with JJ Watt and Justin Smith at 5-tech?
And yeah, I’m determined to turn this into a 49ers blog.
RynoQuote Reply
http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/closer-look-49ers-final-four-plays
Apparently I remembered wrong. It was the third-down play that the clock expired on, not the second. But it would have scored.
And this article reminded me how open the TE was at the goal line on the third-down play that actually happened. I was looking at the receivers when the play was happening live and I yelled, “Got him!” before Kaepernick threw the ball. I was shocked that he went to Crabtree, who took a helmet-to-helmet shot that wasn’t called.
RynoQuote Reply
Wondering where dylan is to weigh in on all this.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
He vanished after the season.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno wrote:
(dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
Yeah that play call was horrendous from SF but I’m pretty sure you gotta throw the flag there.
GBTSQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/projections/four-most-likely-to-exceed-expectations.html
dmick89Quote Reply
I think that punt/safety is going to prompt a rule change of some sort that accepted penalties in the last two minutes of a half reverts the clock back to what it was at the snap or something like that. Baltimore had every incentive to hold on that play. Hell, they could have pulled every single 49er to the ground by his facemask and it would have been to their benefit. Their only goal was to burn clock, by any means necessary.
GBTSQuote Reply