Author: aisle424

Obstructed View’s Self-Indulgent Retrospective of Our Own Posts From 2013

There wasn't much memorable about the 2013 Cubs, but we tried to keep things interesting and entertaining around here at Obstructed View.  We saw more contributions from non-founding authors like Sitrick, GW and Myles while myself, Dmick, Berselius and And Counting had various reasons to step back a bit. Without them, OV would have been a much less interesting place in 2013, so thanks to them for their great work. I know I look forward to seeing more from them in 2014 and I hope to contribute a bit more myself as well.

So as a final good-bye to a crappy Cubs year, I compiled my personal Top Ten OV Posts of 2013 (in chronological order):

Special Bonus Selection: The entire 2013 Cubs Prospects in Review series by Sitrick, Myles, and dmick89

Maybe other people have other favorites, but this is my post and these are mine.

Happy New Year, fuckfaces!

Javier Baez Not the Only Baez Cubs Fans Should Root For

Cubs fans have been rooting for Javier Baez since he was drafted with the Cubs' first pick in the 2011 draft, but Carrie Muskat posted a piece today that sheds light on another member of the Baez family that we should all root for, Javier's sister, Noely.

"[Christmas] is very, very special," said Baez, the Cubs' top prospect. "When my sister was born, doctors said she wouldn't last 20 minutes, that she wouldn't last from one room to another one. Last November, she turned 20. Every day is special."

Noely Baez has spina bifida, the most common permanently disabling birth defect in the United States. It literally means "split spine," and happens when the spinal column does not close all the way. Noely can't walk, but that's about the only thing she can't do.

The whole piece is well worth a read that sheds some light on the Baez family and where Javier came from.

This Christmas is even a bit more special for the Baez family since there was a frightening incident this past Fall:

This offseason, he was reminded once again how fragile life is. On Oct. 13, Baez tweeted, "Pray for my sister please." Noely had to be hospitalized.

"We thought we were going to lose her," Baez said.

His sister's lungs stopped functioning, and for three weeks, she was on a ventilator. The doctors finally decided to take the ventilator out.

"God put his hand on her," Baez said. "She stopped breathing. They said, 'We can't do anything else. We have to see how she'll react.'"

Noely pulled through and we hope that she'll have many more Christmases with her family. It's probably a more worthwhile thing for us to root for than for the Cubs to win 70 games.

Merry Christmas from us at Obstructed View. May your holiday celebrations be above replacement level.

santa OV

OV Hall of Fame Voting Results – Class of 2014

The votes have been cast and if OV was in charge of the Hall of Fame, there would be four (FOUR!) new inductees this summer. Congratulations, Greg Maddux (98.8% of the vote), Frank Thomas (79.8%), Tom Glavine (78.6%), and Mike Piazza (75.0%)!

Voting Results

HOF votes2

Some quick notes:

  • Last year, we elected Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, and Barry Bonds, but only Piazza managed to retain enough of his votes with the additions of Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Mike Mussina, Jeff Kent etc.
  • Only Craig Biggio's percentage of votes received went up between this year and last year, and his only went up one tenth of a percent so that doesn't even really count.
  • Larry Walker dropped 26.8 percentage points from last year and Curt Schilling dropped 26.5 points as the biggest "losers" over the last year. Sosa and Palmeiro also dropped more than 20 percentage points each.
  • Of 1st time candidates, only Mike Mussina and Jeff Kent would appear on next year's ballot. Luis Gonzalez (1 vote), Eric Gagne, Moises Alou and the rest (0 votes) failed to receive the required 5% to stay on the ballot.

  • We had to discard a number of empty ballots because they were mostly duplicates and/or incomplete. There were 5 empty ballots that I counted that could have plausibly been real, and if so, Glavine and Piazza would have failed to reach 75%.
  • We also discarded a few ballots that had as many as 16 yes votes because the maximum was 10.
  • Greg Maddux was missing from only one valid ballot.
  • The average ballot had 8.7 votes submitted, up slightly from last year's 8.5 per ballot. The BBWAA averaged 6.6 on their ballot last year and that was a record high in the 21st century.
  • 50 of our 84 ballots had the maximum 10 votes.

Based on these results and taking a look at how the BBWAA voted last year, I think Maddux will get in for real.  He won't get the 98.8% he got here because there actually will be a couple of blank ballots from the BBWAA like there always is and because I think some strategic voting may occur where some writers will figure Maddux gets in easily, so they'll use a vote that would normally have gone to Maddux to vote for somebody they fear may fall off the ballot, like Sosa or Palmeiro.

After Maddux, I don't know if Glavine and Thomas get in just because of the vote shortage, nd I would bet a significant amount of money that Piazza doesn't. Keep in mind that the BBWAA voted for almost 2 fewer candidates per ballot last year, and in our model, that's over 160 votes that would disappear.  Where do they come from? If Thomas loses 5 votes and Glavine 4 votes in that new model, they don't get in. Piazza can not lose a single vote and still get in. Also, the BBWAA votes for guys like Lee Smith. Last year we gave Smith 25% and the BBWAA gave him 47.8%.  He went down to 14.3% this year in our vote, but I bet he still gets around 20% from the BBWAA.

We hate Jack Morris. He got 8.3% this year after 13.8% last year. The BBWAA had him at 67.7% and this is his 15th and last year to appear on the ballot, so he's going to get a few sympathy votes.  I don't think he gets in, but I also think Morris sucks up a lot of votes away from Thomas, Glavine, Piazza, and Biggio.

Some candidates to fall off the BBWAA ballot are Sosa (12.5% last year from BBWAA – Went from 53.8% to 32.1% ON A CUBS BLOG), McGwire (16.9% BBWAA, 36.3% OV2013, 17.9% OV2014), and Mattingly (13.2% BBWAA, 10% OV2013, 6% OV2014).

I also wonder how it would have come out if we had removed Piazza, Bonds, and Raines from our ballot since they would have been elected last year by us. That would have freed up 168 more votes to spread around.  Maybe Luis Gonzalez and Moises Alou get a little more love.  Maybe Biggio gets in this time.

Thanks to everyone who participated and congratulations again to Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, and Piazza. Your OV Certificates of Classiness are in the mail.

The Cubs Wanted My Opinion… So I Gave It

The Cubs sent me a survey about their recent Season Ticket Holder event they held about a month ago. You may remember it from such posts as this one. They wanted to know how well they were perceived and if it had helped to persuade me to renew my season tickets.

Most of it was grading various aspects like the videos, the Q&A, etc. as Very Satisfying, Satisfying, Moderately Satisfying, Unsatisfying or Very Unsatisfying or some variation of that theme.  Pretty standard stuff that was all kind of spun to reflect that THEY thought it was awesome and you should too, but they were just checking how they could make it MORE awesome. I found myself giving them decent marks because the event itself was nice. They're under no obligation to communicate with us beyond sending us an invoice and menacing letter about the wait list. We'll call that the Trib Way. So it was nice. But it didn't make me want to commit to purchasing 38 games again (what Kris and I bought last year as our part of the package), so I wondered if I should change my answers to reflect that until I reached the end.

One of the last questions asked:

If this event did not impact your decision, please share why.

And they provided a text box for a free form answer. So this is what I wrote:

It was a very nice event, but it was a show. You are looking for feedback to improve your show, and I don't know what more could be done to improve on that (realistically). 

At the end of the day, the point of all of the videos and presentations was to get attention away from the losses on the field for which we are all paying an extremely high price. That was done very well and we all saw the announcement that renewals are up as a result, so in that regard, keep up the good work.  

However, given that I have become a connoisseur of the spin machine that works non-stop on Cubs fans since the Tribune days, it wasn't effective in changing my group's mind to drop our tickets.

Personally, I have been a supporter of the rebuild and the horrors that would result on the major league field as a result because few fans truly realized the dumpster fire the organization was in the last days of Trib ownership. It had to be burned to the ground and rebuilt, and I think the job so far has been amazing.

However, I am extremely disappointed in the continued lack of attention to the product on the major league field in the 3rd year of this project. After 2 years of absolute tanking, it would be nice to see some acquisitions that aren't simply trade bait or roster fillers. 

At what point is the major league team going to learn to win so that the minor leaguers that are now moving through the system have a winning atmosphere to uphold, rather than having the weight of a crappy team and an impatient, pissy fanbase that will turn on any of these golden prospects the minute they show a weakness in their game?

I understand the TV deal isn't done. I understand the rooftop owners and other neighbors around Wrigley are making every step in the renovation a Sisyphean ordeal. I get it. Nothing has been as cut and dry as I'm sure even the most pessimistic models would show when the team was originally purchased from Zell. Revenues aren't what everyone thought they would be at this point in the process. I get it.

But where is the good faith on ownership's part? Cubs season ticket holders have been operating on good faith for the past two seasons with absolutely nothing to show for it. Tickets to most games haven't been worth the paper they've been printed on. But we buy them because we have faith in a future product. The last two worthless seasons have been the opportunity cost of a future we believe Theo and Jed and the rest can eventually deliver.

But when will we see anything besides slickly edited videos and promises of a bright future? 

Part of the selling point in the rebuild was that this wasn't going to be like the Pirates or the Royals where they have to hope and pray that a good number of their top prospects all hit at once before they become too expensive to keep. We have been sold on a product where resources would be spent while the infrastructure was maintained and developed to keep a steady pipeline of cheaper impact pieces coming to the majors. So far, all we're seeing is the pipeline being built, but there is nothing for it to supplement.

So here we are on Year Three of the official rebuild and Year Five of the Ricketts ownership where we have paid a Top 5 average ticket price for absolute crap and nothing tangible to show for it. It is time for some good faith on the ownership's part knowing that the revenue will eventually be there (especially when the team starts winning actual baseball games).

We should get SOMETHING for all of the patience and loyalty through this process because let's not pretend that the ticket prices won't shoot through the roof the moment the games are actually worth attending. It was a nice hat, though.

Vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame at OV

Have you always wanted to be a member of the BBWAA so you could vote for players for the Baseball Hall of Fame?  Well now you can! Well, not really, but let's pretend!

We did this last year and I personally think we did a better job of voting than the actual BBWAA.  Last year we would have voted in Mike Piazza, Barry Bonds, and Tim Raines with Craig Biggio, Roger Clemens, and Jeff Bagwell all coming within 5 votes of induction.  The BBWAA voted in nobody. So all of the worthy candidates from last year are still on the ballot with some other big names like Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, and Jeff Kent that make it very hard to choose only 10 candidates to receive a vote.

Here is a handy page at B-Ref with all of the candidates stats in one place: http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2014.shtml

Our ballot has 4 choices, Yes, No, Undecided, and No Answer.  Only "Yes" votes count as a "Yes." Any other vote will count as a "No." 

Our ballot technically allows for more than 10 "Yes" votes, but we will disqualify any ballot with more than 10 "Yes" votes, so please make sure you vote for no more than 10 candidates. You can vote for fewer. You can even be like one of those BBWAA dicks that turns in a blank ballot every year if you really want, but you can't vote for more than 10. We can not stress that enough.

Voting will be open until 11:59pm on Wednesday, December 11. So go and vote and encourage your friends to vote. If we do this right, the OV Hall of Fame might actually be a better place to visit than the real one and we here can finally all quit our day jobs and become tour guides. We'll publish the results as well as our own ballots and justifications shortly after.

VOTE HERE

In What Passes as Breaking News, Cubs Have Acquired George Kottaras From Royals

The Cubs have traded cash to the Kansas City Royals for George Kottaras per Jon Heyman:

Apparently, nothing is official and I'm not sure if all the media members tweeting about it are simply going off of Heyman's tweet or have their own independent verification, but it's George Kottaras, so who really gives a damn?

He's a bit better than replacement level which is about the best you can hope for out of a back-up catcher. 

He's second year arbitration eligible and he made $1 million last year. So figure he'll make, what, $1.25 million this year? Can't imagine it will be more than $2 million. Figure that plus the few hundred thousand the Cubs sent to the Royals to acquire him and he's probably a little expensive, but you're going to pay for a veteran no matter how crappy they are and they probably want a veteran back-up.  Whatever.

The Dioner Navarro Era was more fun than we thought it would be.  Maybe we'll look back on the George Kottaras Era similarly next year. Probably not.

The People’s Front of Cubs Nation Hates Theo

I was sadly made aware of another corner of the internet that would be better left unexplored yesterday, thanks to intrepid Friend of Aisle 424, @AndrewCieslak over on Twitter.  I don't know how he found it or what provoked me into asking him what he was pissed off about or why I clicked on the link that I assuredly knew would make me want to smash my iPhone and slit my throat with the broken pieces, but I did anyway.

You know how we have likened Rant Sports to a poor man's Bleacher Report? Well, this fucking site is where people who don't make the cut at Rant Sports go to type nonsense on the internet. This thing is so bad, I'm not even going to provide a link because fuck these people trying to drive traffic.  If you want to find it, you can Google it if you want, but this is the bulk of the nonsense entitled: "Plain and Simple: Is Theo Epstein Baseball’s Biggest Fraud?"

If you take a moment to look deeper into Epstein’s moves with the Red Sox, the Cubs would have seen that this was going to turn into a nightmare.

Epstein took over a Red Sox organization that was ready to win. And ready to win big. With a core of Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Nomar Garciaparra and Jason Varitek, that offense was lethal. But what made it that much easier for Epstein to win was the starting rotation that was already in place – led by Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe.

But where did the Boy Genius really have an advantage over every G.M. in baseball this side of the Yankees? Payroll.

When Boston won its first World Series title in 2004, they were second in payroll. There was no team within $20 million dollars. The same thing happened again in 2007, when the Red Sox won their second championship. Let me repeat, no other team came within $20 million.

With that type of payroll advantage, Theo was able to overcome major mistakes he made on the free agent market. He spent bad money on overrated talent like J.D. Drew, Jason Bay, Eric Gagne, Jason Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Any GM that isn’t running a big market club could never make those types of mistakes, and still win.

In Chicago, Theo didn’t get anything close to what he inherited with the Red Sox. Not in payroll, and certainly not in talent. All Theo inherited was a full-fledged war with the roof-top owners, and a massive roster rebuild.

Theo and his boy-toy Jed Hoyer have been preaching patience and player development since they took over this sinking ship, but outside of Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz – where was all this player development in Beantown that the boy genius talks about?

I guess we shouldn't be surprised, what with Gordo taking every opportunity to shit all over what Theo accomplished in Boston. It stands to reason mouthbreathers with access to the internets will find a way to make us all dumber for having read their bullshit.  All I could do while reading that crap was picture the author, Del, sitting around in his Theriot jersey with his friends, It's Gonna Happen signs sprawled pell mell across an apartment amongst Bud Light tall boys and Maxim magazines with the pages stuck together, bitching about Theo at their weekly People's Front of Cubs Nation Meeting (not to be confused with the Cubs Nation People's Front or the Popular Front of Cubdom (which is just Alvin)).

Del: What did Theo ever do for the Red Sox?
PFCN Member: David Ortiz?
Del: What?
PFCN Member: David Ortiz.
Del: Oh. Yeah, he did give them Papi. That's true, yeah.
PFCN Member: And the mid-season deal for Mientkiewicz and Cabrera.
Other PFCN Member: Oh, yeah, the deadline deal, Del. Remember what their infield defense used to be like?
Del: I'll grant you Papi and infield defense, the two things Theo did.
PFCN Member: And Dustin Pedroia.
Del: Yeah, obviously Dustin Pedroia. I mean Pedroia goes without saying, doesn't he? But apart from Papi, an improved infield defense and Dustin Pedroia…
Other PFCN Member:  Buchholz.
PFCN Member: Lester.
Other PFCN Member: Papelbon.
Del: Yeah, yeah, all right, fair enough.
PFCN Member: And Carmine.
Other PFCN Member: That's something they'd really miss, Del, if Theo took that when he left. 
PFCN Member: Ellsbury.
Other PFCN Member: And the Yankees don't win the World Series all the time now. 
PFCN Member: He certainly knew how to keep the Yankees in check. Let's face it, he's the only one who could in a place like Boston. (laughter)
Del: All right, but apart from Big Papi, middle infield defense, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lester, Papelbon, Pedroia, the Carmine data analysis system and the Yankees only winning once in his tenure with Boston, what has Theo ever done for the Red Sox?
Third PFCN Member: Broke The Curse?
Del: Oh, The Curse. Shut up!

WGN Narrows List of Candidates To Annoy Fans During Cubs Broadcasts

Last night, Robert Feder reported that WGN has a short list of candidates to replace Keith Moreland alongside Pat Hughes in the Cubs radio booth.

While the search remains open, sources said, WGN officials compiled a list of their top potential candidates Monday, including eight former Cubs — Rick Sutcliffe, Kerry Wood, Todd Hollandsworth, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Theriot, Eric Karros, Doug Glanville and Dave Otto. Also on the list is former WGN sportscaster Andy Masur, who subbed for Hughes on Cubs broadcasts before becoming announcer for the San Diego Padres.

Yes, you read that correctly. In amongst the usual suspects, there is Ryan Theriot. While we all recover from throwing up in our mouths, I decided to rank my personal preferences from this list.

#1 – Andy Masur

For me it really isn't close. Andy Masur has worked with Pat Hughes before (from 1999 to 2007 at WGN), he has a very listenable voice, and he's extremely knowledgeable about the game. I don't know how serious his inclusion is since he's traditionally been a play-by-play guy. But his ability to do the play-by-play during Pat Hughes' 5th inning constitutional should be enough to rocket him to the top of the list by a large margin.

#2 – Doug Glanville

Doug is the only candidate who people will talk about how intelligent and well-spoken he is, like it's a big surprise that a guy who is black works in the television industry can put two sentences together coherently. Still, it would be hilarious if the Cubs broadcast with Glanville ended up sounding like this:

Doug Glanville: Shiiiiit, maaaaan. That honky muf' be messin' mah old lady… got to be runnin' cold upside down his head, you know?

Pat Hughes: Hey home', I can dig it. Know ain't gonna lay no mo' big rap up on you, man!

Doug Glanville: I say hey, sky… subba say I wan' see…

Pat Hughes: Uh-huh.

Doug Glanville: …pray to J I did the same-ol', same-ol'!

Pat Hughes: Hey… knock a self a pro, Slick! That gray matter backlot perform us DOWN, I take TCB-in', man!

Doug Glanville: Hey, you know what they say: see a broad to get dat booty yak 'em…

Doug Glanville, Pat Hughes:: …leg 'er down a smack 'em yak 'em!

Doug Glanville: COL' got to be! Y'know? Shiiiiit.

#3 – Dave Otto

Now we get to the splitting hairs portion of the list because the next few guys are all annoying, and their order would be determined more by personal preference than anything tangible. I've got Otto above the rest because I've gotten oddly used to his awkward delivery and tendency to overuse player slang and the rest of the list is pretty terrible,

#4 – Rick Sutcliffe

Sutcliffe can be entertaining, but he tends to just parrot the lazy narratives I tend to hate about guys finding a will to succeed and shit like that. He's also the most entertaining when he's hammered off his ass drunk.

Unfortunately, that schtick was done in the WGN booth already by Harry Caray.

#5 – Eric Karros

I probably only rank Eric Karros this low because I always resented him taking at-bats away from Hee Seop Choi in 2003. Shows what I fucking know.

#6 – Mark DeRosa

DeRosa seemed to do fine on the TBS studio show during the playoffs and I'm sure the women would LOVE to see his sexy stubble on the radio… wait…

*UPDATE* DeRosa apparently realized his sexy stubble would be completely negated on radio and has signed with the MLB Network where he will look like a genius compared to Harold Reynolds.

#7 – Todd Hollandsworth

Hollandsworth has been working Cubs games for Comcast since 2008 and has seemingly earned a shot at a more full-time gig, but the man. Does. Not. Shut. Up. Ever. If you're going to sit next to one of the best play-by-play announcers in all of baseball, the color guy should probably allow him to get a word in occasionally and Hollandsworth doesn't.

#8 – Kerry Wood

Wood was always good for a quote with the media, but I never heard him do anything or say anything that led me to believe he had 162 games times 3 hours worth of material to share with people. But I'd hire Kerry Wood in a second or any of…

#9  (tie) – Almost Everyone Else on the Planet

… before I hired…

#10 – Ryan Theriot

I would rather listen to Ronnie Woo paired with Bobcat Goldthwait read the entire passage of Genesis chapter 5 (And Mahal'aleel lived sixty and five years, and begat Jared and Mahal'aleel lived after he begat Jared eight hundred and thirty years, and begat sons and daughters and all the days of Mahal'aleel were eight hundred ninety and five years: and he died…) on a loop while someone put my head in a vise and stuck icepicks into my testicles than listen to Ryan Theriot say anything ever again.

Personally, I'd rather Pat Hughes just have the booth to himself or if they absolutely have to hire someone, the only choice is clear:

 

 

BILL FUCKING MURRAY!

 

Variations on a Cubs Theme: LOYALTY! PATIENCE! PROGRESS! COMMITTED!

I headed down to the first of four Season Ticket Holder events that the Cubs are putting on today and tomorrow at the Bank of America Theatre downtown. I met up with Ivy Chat Chuck (who I hope will also write his perspective) and we bumped into Tom Ricketts before the show started. As I shook his hand, I realized I was wearing my Cubbie Facepalm hat and I'm 99% sure he noticed it. So the snowball's chance in hell I ever had of being employed by the Cubs one day just melted. He was very nice and it turned out he and Chuck had some common acquaintances so that saved me from potentially having an awkward conversation about copyright infringement and what constitutes parody.

As far as the event went, I kind of figured that we would be treated to some very tightly orchestrated talking points, since that has historically been one of the few things the Cubs do well, but I have to say that Crane and Theo brought their A Games.

I'll put it this way: If we had played a drinking game involving any variations of the following words – loyalty, patience, progress, or committed – I would probably be dead of alcohol poisoning before Crane Kenney even finished his part.

Crane did his best to come off warm and genial, but you can't ever really spend any amount of time near Crane without getting the distinct idea that he would rather be involved in a ripping game of squash or seeing his prize horse performing dressage than talking about the Cubs with the unwashed sea of humanity dressed in Cubs paraphernalia. Not that I completely blame him. I'd rather do almost anything than discuss the Cubs with the vast majority of people who claim to be the teams' best fans.

Crane came out swinging with lots of COMMITTED talk. COMMITTED to winning a World Series. COMMITTED to renovating and preserving Wrigley. COMMITTED to being better neighbors in the community. Things we have all heard from them many times before because, as season ticket holders, we are so LOYAL and PATIENT and our LOYALTY and PATIENCE will be rewarded eventually due to the PROGRESS the COMMITTED Cubs have made and they are thankful for our continuing PATIENCE and LOYALTY as the PROGRESS is made. COMMITTED!

He quickly brushed past mentioning the negatives to the PROGRESS like a hurricane in the Dominican, Chicago politics, litigious rooftop owners and losses on the field. He moved swiftly towards tangible signs of PROGRESS like Baez, Bryant, and Almora and how they are now ranked the 2nd best farm system by Baseball Prospectus.

He claims no team has spent more than the Cubs in the last 4 years (under the Ricketts) on the draft and international spending. Some quick dirty calculations in my head make that seem plausible, but someone can feel free to fact check that statement if they feel so inclined.  

He said that since the Ricketts have owned the team, they have hired 69 people on the business operations side and 64 people on the baseball operations side. This truly is PROGRESS, in my opinion, as they did inherit what has widely been acknowledged as the smallest front office in the major leagues.

They interspersed the live talking points with some slick promotional videos. One of them was narrated by someone who either is the movie voiceover guy ("In a world where fans are PATIENT and LOYAL, the LOYALTY and PATIENCE leads to PROGRESS because of the Cubs' COMMITMENT… ") or someone who does a hell of an impression.

Another one was narrated by Gary Sinise. Spare no expense. 

There was a nice montage that inexplicably showed Starlin Castro fielding and Darwin Barney hitting. There also appears to be only one highlight of Junior Lake because we saw the same footage of him connecting and watching an apparent homerun at least three times in the course of all the videos. PROGRESS!

Crane continued to pound home that PROGRESS can only continue if they remain COMMITTED to the renovation process that has been slower than they'd like, but stressed that PATIENCE is required and they were already so thankful for our LOYALTY through the process.

One point he made about the Cubs' competitive disadvantage while Wrigley is in the unrenovated state is that they start each year in a $40 million hole each year. I missed all the reasons he gave for that as I tried to get my notes on my phone, but the two big ones were maintenance costs to keep Wrigley from falling apart (my words) and lost revenue to the rooftops (Crane's). This last statement raised some eyebrows as Crane has apparently taken the gloves off when discussing the Cubs' rooftop "partners." LOYALTY!

That provided a nice segue to a video hosted by Len Kasper that highlighted the features of the renovated ballpark. It was a virtual tour around a model they've built. I'll say that if they ever get the damn renovations completed, Wrigley and the surrounding amenities will be pretty sweet. PATIENCE!

Crane then started talking up the exciting things they have planned for the 100 year anniversary season of Wrigley. They are calling it the Party of the Century and since Crane says he likely won't live to see the next 100 year anniversary, he's planning on having an extended celebration all season. My Crane-to-English decoder ring indicates to me that they plan to milk the ever-loving shit out of this anniversary. COMMITTED!

They'll have regular bobblehead giveaway Fridays as well as Throwback Sundays where they'll wear uniforms from various periods in Cubs history and go so far as to have themed food from the specific periods they represent.  So I think that means that when they pay homage to the 1940s uniforms, they'll serve hot dogs that were manufactured in the 1940s. I'm not sure. I could be wrong about that. PROGRESS?

Crane wrapped up his bit by announcing that as a thank you for our LOYALTY and PATIENCE, everyone in attendance will receive a free hat with the Wrigley 100th Anniversary logo. FREE HAT! COMMITTED!

Then it was time for Theo. Thank God.

Theo opened by saying that when he first took the job, a friend told him, "It takes great courage to be PATIENT." He then told us how true that has turned out to be and that we are the ones who are truly courageous for sitting through the last two years and he thanked us for our LOYALTY and PATIENCE. He went on to say that we inspire him and his team to "work day and night to put a team on the field worthy of your support." COMMITTED!

Now, I don't know what it is, but when Theo says stuff like that, there is an air of believability that Crane simply doesn't have.  Maybe it's because we know Crane was a part of the old bullshit they used to feed us about being only "a few good moves away from contention." Maybe it's just because I WANT to believe Theo.  I don't know, but that's how it comes off. PROGRESS!

He talked about the recent World Series and said that 35 of the 50 guys on the final World Series rosters were either developed by the team or acquired in trades involving guys who were homegrown. He praised both teams, but then cut it short because he loved it "took an oath to Tom Ricketts to hate the Cardinals."  Theo knows how to play to this audience. COMMITTED!

He then talked about how he thought the Cubs of the 60s were so beloved because so many of that "core" came up together and grew together and won (sort of) together. He wants to have that same situation happen soon where fans can start seeing the young core play together and begin to win together over many seasons. LOYALTY!

So far, I wasn't getting a real big vibe that they're going to make any big name free agent signings. He went on to explain the importance of homegrown talent from a different angle when he said that the average peak of a player is around 27 years old.  He said the average age of a free agent is 32 years old, so obtaining impact talent at or near the peak of production is extremely rare. PATIENCE!

He also said that from 2002 to 2011, the Cubs are dead last in major league production from those drafts, which segued him into why they have traded so many veterans in the first 2 years as they try to gather younger, cost controlled talent. At this point, they have traded 8 veterans with 4 years of control combined for 14 players with 78 years of control. PROGRESS!

He conceded that there is a cost to their methods in reference to losses on the field in August and September. So, he concluded, "[The strategy] better serve a higher purpose and it better work." COMMITTED!

There was a video highlighting the young potential future stars Bryant, Baez, Almora, Soler, and CJ Edwards (who Theo called the centerpiece of the Garza trade, rather than Olt, who never got mentioned in this session). I have to say, the video did a good job of building up the hopes and dreams of seeing those guys punish baseballs and strike out opponents at Wrigley. PATIENCE!

There was also, what I can only assume was a very hastily produced video introducing Rick Renteria to fans as the new manager where he discussed what a positive person he is and how he looks for teaching opportunities when players make errors or lose focus or whatever. He seemed like a person who would be very good at working with young players and someone who will not satisfy the meatballs who will want him to scream and curse and threaten to murder Starlin Castro when he commits the grave sin of dropping a ground ball. PROGRESS!

He also talked about how he had not done a good job in providing an atmosphere at the major league level for players to continue to develop into winners, and that was the key reason for the managerial change. PATIENCE!

There were then some questions from Dave Kaplan and the fans themselves who, despite's Kap's repeated pleas to keep questions "concise," the fans still managed to tell rambling stories before eventually getting around to asking a question.

My phone was dying by that point, so I don't have further notes, but I can assure you that the answers given by both Crane and Theo almost universally pivoted back to at least one of the major themes: LOYALTY! PATIENCE! PROGRESS! COMMITTED!

It was a good show and I don't know how it is going to play with the general group of season ticket holders, but they were COMMITTED to pounding the message of LOYALTY and PROGRESS into their brains. By the way, the 10% deposit for season ticket accounts is due in a week. Somehow I have a feeling they won't show quite as much PATIENCE if that deadline is missed.

Other coverage of the event:

 

Minor League Roundtable Part 3: Cubs Prospects ETA

This is our third part of the roundtable. Myles was not present at the time that Sitrick and I started, but his answers are toward the end.

dmick89: Of the major prospects, it's expected that Javier Baez will get to Chicago first. If he gets off to a good start at Iowa where I expect he'll begin the year, he could get called up soon. A hot April at Iowa and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in early May. The Cubs may want to cut costs somewhat, but super two status shouldn't really matter. If Baez is good enough, the Cubs can be expected to sign him long-term before he gets to that point. Otherwise, I would expect it not to be a financial issue.

I was surprised Arismendy Alcantara didn't get a promotion to Iowa this year, but he'll start there next season. Like Baez, he could get called up quickly. A lot will depend on what Barney is doing at 2nd base, but defense be damned, the Cubs won't hesitate to replace Barney.

I don't think we see Jorge Soler at the big league level next year. I can't imagine a situation in which Albert Almora pushes himself up to the big league level. I can't even imagine this front office promoting at the necessary rate to ensure it happens. For what it's worth, I don't think we'll see Almora until late 2015.

Sitrick: Yep, barring injury or Olt-esque performance, I'd expect Baez to be with the big club by early June at the latest. The PCL is going to really play to Baez's strengths, so if he struggles it's going to be really surprising to me, and really quite troubling.

I've heard people suggest that with a good season Bryant could find himself with the big club in September. That would seem unlike this front office, which has preached patience in the development process and has stressed the importance of giving players a substantial number of minor league PAs. But when a hitter's ready, a hitter's ready, and Bryant has yet to reach a league that has presented any sort of difficulty for him. If they start Bryant at Tennessee, I'd give it an outside chance we see him with the big club before the year's through, but if he goes back to Daytona even for a brief period, I think he'll run out of games to prove himself MLB-ready next year.

Agreed that Alcantara will get up, but something about his skillset makes me think he'll bounce back and forth a couple of times. I can't put my finger on why, I just get the feeling he's going to struggle initially.

If Soler starts at Tennessee and lights the world on fire, I think he's got just as good a chance at a September callup as Bryant, though at a certain point someone is going to get held off for contractual reasons, and Soler doesn't have the polish or game-hours logged that Bryant does. Which is a long way of saying I agree, I think he's a long shot to end up in the majors next year.

Could Pierce Johnson make it by September if everything falls the right way? Whichever of Christian Villanueva and Mike Olt that doesn't get traded will probably get a look. Then there are the lesser impact guys, Hendricks and Szczur being the guys immediately to come to mind.

dmick89: I made fun of the idea of Bryant starting the season at 3rd base by suggesting something even more ridiculous. I still think it's a silly idea to think he could start the season with the Cubs, but I do think he's got a good chance to move quite quickly through the system. Bryant is the first higher end prospect the Cubs have had since Thoyer took over that went to college. Since I looked at Jacoby Ellsbury's career recently, he was a college-aged kid the Sox drafted when Theo ran the team and he reached the big leagues quickly. I think Bryant could be even better and reach it more quickly.

I don't think it's likely. I think he still spends all of 2014 in the minors, but if he's proving to be too good for the levels he's at, I think the team might promote him faster than we've seen them do so far.

I think Pierce Johnson has a shot, but I expect a good season will get him to AAA by the end of the year. Pitchers can be promoted more quickly than position players. A team may need a starter if a couple are injured so it's entirely possible he's up next year and even throws quite a few innings. I doubt it.

I'm not sure what to make of Alcantara. I think he has a good chance to be productive at the MLB level, but I also think he has a good chance of being a back-up or utility player. Or never even catching on and being good enough for that. He'll be highly ranked after this year, but he's one who can fall quickly, too.

At some point you run out of room on the roster for prospects so we may be digging too deep at this point.

Sitrick: Of course, there are only so many roster spots. I'm mostly expecting to see prospects at areas of volatility on the roster; we saw what, 4 different players at 3B this season? (Lewis, Valbuena, Murphy and Ransom). I could see Baez, Valbuena, Murphy, and Olt/Villanueva all getting ABs there in 2014. Center will likely be just as in flux, barring a Jacoby Ellsbury addition (sidenote: this is another reason I don't see the club signing Ellsbury, as reports are that the FO really loves Almora and I can't see them signing anyone that will block him beyond 2014). And the inevitable rotation injuries will almost undoubtedly clear the way for Hendricks or Johnson if they're ready. Combine that with trades and various other maneuverings and I think the roster concerns are less of an issue than who is going to be ready to contribute.

Sitrick: Wait, I have no idea where I got Lewis from. Brain fart. I think I got Cody Ransom confused with Colby Lewis? I'm a dumb person. Anyway.

dmick89: I think it's a big mistake to not sign free agents because you really like a prospect who just played some ball at A level. The number of prospects who GMs have really liked at that level who didn't pan out are in the hundreds and maybe thousands. I get why the Cubs are excited with Almora, but the guy was a high school pick and is at least two years away. We've seen how slow they've been at promoting. Best case for Almora is at the end of 2015. I don't think you can hold a spot open for a guy who hasn't even reached A+ yet. If they sign a CF, Ellsbury or another one, they can always move that guy to LF or RF. Or move Almora to one of those positions. You still need 3 outfielders so I have trouble seeing how their like of Almora would have an impact on whether or not they'd sign a CF this offseason.

If the Cubs are keeping a spot open for Javier Baez, I get that. He's very close to MLB ready.

Soler has two options left, right? Pretty sure he's eligible for a fourth. The Cubs will undoubtedly use the third one in 2014, but I bet they wouldn't mind having one in their pocket if needed. Due to that, I could definitely see Soler getting called up sooner than I initially thought.

Sitrick: I see your point, and I agree with you, but I've seen a number of reports about how the Cubs don't want a long term option in center precisely because of Almora. I think end of 2015 isn't exactly best case, but is probably the likely case. I think that's why they want lake in center if he can hack it, because he's a good seat warmer that can be ditched without much trouble or heartache.

dmick89: They always say "you can never have too much pitching." This is correct, but what they should be saying is that "you can never have too much talent." I think this applies to the possibility of acquiring a CF or another outfielder this offseason. If Almora progresses quickly, and the Cubs had gone out and signed a CF this offseason, they won't complain about having too much talent.

Regarding best case, aren't we using Baez as an example? He was drafted a year earlier. Both are high school picks. Two years after being drafted Baez was at AA. It's possible he goes back though more likely he's up at Iowa. I think it's possible Baez gets called up early, but probably more likely it's near the end of the season (July or later). That would be July 2015 or later for Almora. Then there's the performance difference to this point. Baez has been a lot better, stayed healthy and plays a more premium position. Best case is probably sooner than the end of 2015, but it would mean that Almora went absolutely freaking nuts at the plate next year. I've seen no indication, scouting or performance, to suggest he's capable of that. I don't know, but based on the relative difference in talent between the two, and I think it's considerable, I think we should expect a later call-up than we would for Baez.

I guess if I'm Tom Ricketts and I've got a GM who insists we wait for Almora, I'm asking him to stake his reputation and his job on it. He damned well better be right if he's passing on available free agents in favor of what currently is still a longshot.

Myles: I think you are both far too aggressive with your Baez and Alcantara promotions. They have preached the 500 AAA appearances thing since they got here. Baez won't even have 500 AA appearances until June I'd he started there this season. Alcantara will be first (June) and I bet Baez is a September callup.

I also think Bryant has half a chance for a cup of coffee in September. He's obviously advanced, as is the type of guy that this FO loves.

Sitrick: The FO has also discussed prospects "beating" their development plan, and if prospects perform, they'll be promoted. As Parks always preaches, successful organizations tailor their development plan to the player and are flexible.

Myles: I also agreed with dmick about not worrying about blocks, especially ones so far away. I'd go so far to say that I'd sign an impact 3B if it "blocked" Baez when he gets up here. Talent is talent, and it's the best problem in the world to have when you've got too many capable guys. You trade the one you think you've scouted better than the other guys, and turn your excess talent into pitching or some other commodity. That being said, obviously the Cubs shouldn't be making it a priority to block their own guys.

That's true, and I hope you're right. As good as Baez' year was, it wasn't exactly without problems. He can still learn things (whether he could hope to learn them in AA, where he's clearly too talented remains to be seen).

Sitrick: Thoyer is already on record that they expect Baez to start the year in Iowa.

Myles: Pinning CF on a guy 2 years removed from high-school, who has had his share of injuries already, seems just extraordinarily loose to me. Of course, he's embarrassing the AFL so far, so who knows?

All I know is that Iowa is going to be a hot ticket at some point in 2014. Compared to the shitshow it was in 2013, it's going to be nice for the good folks of Des Moines.

If I had to lay a timeline when I think the Top 6 prospects arrive, it be something like:

Baez: August/September 2014
Bryant: April 2015
Soler: June 2015
Alcantara: June 2014
Almora: September 2015
Johnson: April 2015

Of course, this assumes they dont' all bust terribly.

Sitrick: The I-Cubs are 3.5 hours away from me, and I am already planning on attending at least a game at every home series in April. It's gonna be awesome.

My timeline:

Baez: June 2014
Bryant: April 2015 with an outside shot at September 2014 if he hits and Left/3B is a shitshow.
Soler: May/June 2015
Alcantara: June 2014
Almora: September 2015
Johnson: April 2015 with an outside shot at September 2014 if the team surprisingly contends and there's an injury, or they want him to help out the bullpen.

I'm aggressive on Baez because, as has been said by you yourself Myles, I'm not sure the things Baez has to learn can be learned in the minors. AA parks couldn't contain him, and the PCL isn't going to do much better.

Myles: I really do think the first time he struggles, it'll be in Chicago.

dmick89: Baez: July 2014 (Cubs wait to avoid super 2)
Bryant: April 2015
Soler: April 2015
Alcantara: June 2014
Almora: April 2016
Johnson: September 2014

As one of you said, this assumes they don't crap out and since we're talking 6 guys it's guaranteed to happen to some of them. If all 6 reach these expectations, the Cubs are going to be really really good.