Let’s talk about 2002

If you read Baseball Prospectus, you probably know who Jason "Professor" Parks is. Parks had a chat yesterday that was very interesting for Cubs fans, and the most interesting question would be this one:

BTH524 (Pennsylvania): Where do you project the top 2013 draft picks (Kris Bryant, Mark Appel, etc.) to be slotted in your top prospect list? With the understanding that you may change your mind, of course!

Jason Parks: Bryant could/should be in the top ten in the game. He's a polished offensive monster that should be at the highest level at some point in 2014. Appel is also a polished collegiate talent that will move quickly, but I'm not as high on his ceiling as some and I don't see him as a future #1 type. He will be in the top 25, but not the top 10.

Say what you will about Parks (and he has his share of haters, just ask Kyle on the Bleacher Nation boards), but that's an intriguing sign about Bryant. Baez is right around the Top 10 of most boards.

For the purposes of this article, I'm going to assume the relative position of the Cubs' top prospects. If any of them seem outlandish, they might well be. I'm using a rough guide backed up by at least a cursory glance at the prospect wonks' lists.

Baez 10
Bryant 10
Almora 20
Soler 30
Edwards 50
Alcantara 80
Johnson 100

That's an impressive list, and in fact would be impressive if you took any two names off the list! Seriously, remove Baez and Bryant and you still have an organization that is overrepresented in the Top 100, that is weighted towards the top (though not the very top), and is deeper than the average organization too (our 30th best prospect actually has a meaningful chance to make the majors for at least a half of a season, which isn't normally true).

Cubs fans, unfortunately, have seen this sort of top prospect list before. The year was 2002, and it looks awfully similar to 2013.

Mark Prior 2 (BA, which I'll use for all of these)
Juan Cruz 6
Hee Seop Choi 40
David Kelton 45
Bobby Hill 48
Nic Jackson 68
Carlos Zambrano 80

Let's run through each of the 7 briefly:

Mark Prior: was the best pitcher the Cubs had in the past 20 years not named Maddux. Freak Injuries and a tough throwing motion both took turns derailing his career, which isn't 100% over (but for all intents and purposes, it is).

Juan Cruz: Injuries and ineffectiveness de-railed his Cubs career, though he eventually caught on as a high-impact reliever for a few other teams.

Hee Seop Choi: traded for Derrek Lee, who has awesome as a Cub. He floundered after a concussion in 2006, though was relatively effective in spurts with the Marlins and Dodgers. Probably led to DePodesta's firing in LA, though Jim Tracy did him no favors.

David Kelton: Kelton literally only had one great season (2001 in AA), and was forgetable the rest of his career (including a repeat of AA in 2002 for no reason). He only has 251 PA the year he broke out, so next time someone tries to use a small sample size to rationalize something, think of David Kelton, please.

Bobby Hill: Part of the trade that landed Aramis Ramirez. Like Kelton, rode a small sample size to prospecthood, and it weared off as soon as he was traded.

Nic Jackson: Never made it to the bigs, one of 12 on the list not to do so. Had a nice year in A+, was injured the next year, and injuries and strikeouts ended his career (though he still soldiers on in the Indy Leagues).

Carlos Zambrano: Ended up being pretty great.

So, we look at the 2002 list and are sad at first; actually, the Cubs made out like BANDITS. They turned 2 assets into Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, and another one of the 7 was one of the best pitchers on the best Cubs team of my lifetime. Another one was incredible until a pair of injuries (Dusty Baker, Brad Hawpe), sunk his career. That stuff happens.

More important is the fact that these lists have gotten much better as time has gone on. In 2002, I'd say 7 of the top 20 players had (or are having) average or better-than-average careers (Beckett, Pena, Mauer, Teixiera, Nick Johnson, Hamilton, Phillips). You could debate Prior and Cruz either way. In 2008, I count 10 (Bruce, Longoria, Buchholz, Rasmus, Kershaw, Price, Wieters, Ellsbury, McCutchen, Andrus). Even the worst of the Top 20 are still actual MLB players (well, maybe not Brandon Wood). In 2009, you have Wieters, Price, Rasmus, Heyward, Bumgarner, Feliz, Alvarez, Posey, Stanton, all in the top 16. Comparisons from 2002 to now just don't make that much sense, because the way team's (and scouts) evaluate talent is demonstrably better. Also worth noting: the 2008 Top 100 list only had 6 players that never made it to the bigs (and one, Deolis Guerra, could still make it and was almost a Rule V last year). The 2007 list had 5. The 2006 list had 6.

Am I saying that the top prospects on the Cubs are all likely to hit? No, I don't believe that. I think I'm probably more pessimistic than the average fan about their chances. I do think they'll turn out in greater numbers than those who just point to 2002 think (and also, 2002 wasn't as bad as you might think at first blush).

Want or Don’t Want: Jacoby Ellsbury

Jacoby Ellsbury's season isn't finished yet as the Red Sox continue on in the ALCS. He's probably not begun to think a whole lot about his upcoming free agency, but it will be the talk of the offseason. The centerfielder turned 30 on September 11th and will be entering his age 30 season at the tail-end of his prime. I expect Robinson Cano to be re-signed by the Yankees relatively quickly at which point Ellsbury will be the best free agent.

Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have known Ellsbury for a long time. The Cubs were busy selecting Mark Pawelek as the 20th pick in the 2005 Draft while Theo's front office was readying to pick Jacoby Ellsbury 23rd. The Cubs' Mark Pawelek was busy kicking and punching Ninendos, the only perfect strike he ever threw, while Ellsbury was impressing scouts in AA a year after the draft. Pawelek has been fighting game consoles ever since while Ellsbury has impressed at the MLB level.

Ellsbury has put up impressive numbers while at the same time posting mediocre seasons in between. He's had trouble staying healthy, but when he is on the field, he produces. He's been an excellent fielder and an even more impressive baserunner. Almost exactly 1/2 of his home run total came in one season (2011). He was fantastic at the plate that year, but otherwise has just been about average.

I was trying to think of a similar player to Ellsbury that reached free agency recently and I'm having trouble. He's quite valuable, but not in the ways that you'd expect for someone who will command the interest and dollars that he will. Coco Crisp came to mind, but I don't think that compares. Ellsbury is one of the top free agents available this offseason and Crisp was not. Ellsbury is a fine player and quite possibly worth every penny he'll sign for.

I decided to look at Baseball Reference's similar players through age 29 and compare them to Ellsbury.

Among the ten most similar are three current players: David DeJesus, Coco Crisp and Shane Victorino. As a group, the ten combined to hit through age 29 .293/.357/.431 and had an OPS+ of 108. Ellsbury has hit .297/.350/.439 with an OPS+ of 108. It's hard to compare triple slash stats across eras so I wouldn't look too much into how similar those numbers are. OPS+ is adjusted for era and though wOBA and wRC+ would be better, those aren't offered on Baseball Reference.

Those ten players averaged 16.8 rWAR through age 29 and Ellsbury has 21.0. Tommy Holmes was the only other player in the group to have more than 18.8. Holmes had 23.7 rWAR. Ellsbury has been more valuable than the group, likely because of his defense and baserunning. Since Ellsbury has been better than the group through age 29, we can expect him to also be better after 29.

Only seven of the players on the list are retired and from 30 on those seven hit .290/.350/.422 with an OPS+ of 108. However, they played quite a bit less. Up through age 29 the seven retired players played in an average of 798 games (all 10 averaged 799). The seven retired players played in an average 716 after age 29. The retired ones averaged 9.7 rWAR.

The rate stats didn't get worse as they aged, but they played less, which is predictable. If you were to estimate what his next contract would be by looking at the most similar players through age 29, you might conclude he's worth somewhere between $60 million and $70 million the rest of his career. You might be right, but you'd wrong to estimate his next contract will be that low.

Teams will try to estimate his value over several years and the best way we have to do so as fans is to use projections. Unfortunately, there aren't any available for 2014 yet, but Fangraphs has something labeled 2014 Steamer on the player pages. That's the Steamer projections that have come out annually for at least a few years. The numbers are a bit odd so we'll have to adjust to a reasonable number of plate appearances.

Steamer has Ellsbury at 0.5 fWAR over 74 plate appearances. For all I know, Fangraphs just took the final updated 2013 Steamer projections and threw 2014 on it. it's close enough since we're not trying to be exact anyway. That gives us about 4 fWAR over 600 plate appearances next year.

I was iniitially thinking 4.5 for next year so the 4 matches fairly closely with what I had off the top of my head.

2014: 4.0 WAR
2015: 3.5 WAR
2016: 3.0 WAR
2017: 2.5 WAR
2018: 2.0 WAR
2019: 1.5 WAR
2020: 1.0 WAR

That's 17.5 WAR through 2020. If we use a starting win value of $5.5 million and use 7% interest, that's a total contract of 7 years and $112.6 million. If we increase the starting point to $6.0 million and increase by half a million each year, that's $124.25 million. The midway point is $118.4 million.

I've ready articles that suggest he could get something like $150 million. I think any team that spends that much on Ellsbury is making a pretty big mistake.

Using the $16.9 million average annual value (118.4 million total), you might be able to sign Ellsbury for under $100 million if you increase it to $18.9 million annually. That would be $94.5 million over 5 seasons.

Want or don't want? There's gotta be a third choice. I'll take that one. I'm certainly not going to complain if the Cubs sign Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason. Well, if they pay him $150 million I will complain. If they pay him $120 million, I won't complain, but I won't be all excited either.

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Albert Almora

Albert Almora is a right-handed center fielder, and just finished his age 19 season. He stands 6'2-180. He came to the Cubs as the first round pick in the 2012 draft. Taken sixth overall, Almora signed for an overslot $3.9 million to pry him away from a commitment to the University of Miami. Soon thereafter, he was sent to the AZL to begin his pro career.

Almora played in 33 games between the AZL and Northwest League in 2012, and hit like a man posessed, posting an overall line of .321/.331/.464 for the year. He spent the offseason reading rave reviews about himself, ranked in the top 3 across every major organizational top ten list (including taking the top spot in B-Pro's evaluation) and landing as a universal top-50 in the national lists. We'll get to the scouting reports below, but evaluators would consistently rave about his spectacular baseball instincts and makeup, his dedication, work ethic, and leadership qualities all projecting to make his slate of average-to-plus tools play up. BA's Jim Callis and Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks would both comment throughout the season that, going into 2013, Almora was the safest bet among Cubs prospects to be a solid contributor at the major league level.

Albert was sent to Kane County to start the season, with the anticipation that he would race through the system.

Performance

The season got off to an ominous start for Almora, who broke a hamate bone in his wrist in spring training and would subsequently not arrive in Kane County until May 22nd, missing the first month and a half of the year. He would quickly make up for lost time, however, turning in a blistering .404/.434/.543 line in 22 games before the All-Star Break. He would begin August with a .329/.376/.466 season line.

The injury bug would bite Albert once more in 2013, though, as a bone bruise in his groin ended his season 3 games into August. Between his groin and wrist injuries, Almora would be on the field for only 61 games in his full-season debut, a dominant player in the midwest league when on the field, but dinged up frequently enough to begin whispers about durability.

Scouting

As with all of the top prospects, plenty of scouting information available out there. Here's Baseball America's blurb from this year's Prospect Handbook, which ranked Almora as the system's #2 prospect:

Scouts say Almora has more polish and better makeup than any high schooler in recent memory. His tools are solid or better across the board too, so the Cubs selected him sixth overall in June and signed him for $3.9 million. It was no surprise that he was able to make an easy transition to pro ball, hitting .321/.331/.464 at the two lowest levels of the system. Thanks to his bat speed, loose swing and hand-eye coordination, Almora makes line-drive contact with ease. He has natural hitting rhythm and pitch-recognition skills beyond his years. He will need to develop more patience, however, after walking just twice in 145 pro plate appearances. He's not the most physical player, but he has the hitting acumen and projection to grow into annual 20-homer power. As gifted as he is offensively, scouts rave even more about Almora's defense. He has incredible instincts, allowing his average speed to play up a grade on the bases and well above that in center field. He gets outstanding jumps and takes precise routes. He also has a strong, accurate arm. A quality teammate, he has helped Cuban defector Jorge Soler with his English. Almora profiles as a Gold Glove center fielder who could hit third in the batting order. He'll be part of a very talented lineup at Chicago's new low Class A Kane County affiliate in 2013, and he might only need two years in the minors.

Baseball Prospectus was even higher on Almora, ranking him above even Baez:

Strengths: Well-rounded tool collection; feel for the game is outstanding and allows tools to play above grade; 5 arm; 5 run; 6 glove; future hit could be easy 6; excellent bat speed; gets into zone quickly and efficiently; power has above-average potential; shows advanced game skills; lauded for work ethic/makeup; now talent that could move fast.

Weaknesses: Range in CF is tied to read/react skills and instincts, not plus raw speed; lacks high-end physicality; lacks elite tools; upside isn’t as sexy as teammate Javier Baez; aggressive approach has yet to be tested; small professional sample

Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division starter Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; more polished than the average teenager; shows advanced feel and instincts for the game; high floor; respectable ceiling; most likely falls short of star status.

The Year Ahead: Almora will most likely jump to full-season ball, where he will play the majority of the year as a 19-year-old. The highly praised hit tool will be tested by more advanced pitching, and the aggressive approach will need to refine to avoid exploitation. With now skills and advanced feel, Almora should continue to progress up the prospect ranks, and has a chance to emerge as a top tier player in the minors if the solid-average skill-set plays up beyond its projection. Major league ETA: 2016

There was also one other interesting thing I found while poking around the B-Pro preseason scouting articles, a line from Jason Parks about Almora's defense:

Not sure if the profile in CF looks in three-five years, and I'm not sure the bat is all that sexy in a corner, so I don't think he's a slam-dunk first-division guy at the highest level.

This was really interesting to me, as it's the first time anywhere I've seen doubts about Almora's ability to stick in center, or his ability to be a first-division MLB player. Upon seeing that, however, I'm a bit surprised we don't hear more doubts of this sort. Almora is not a speed demon, and, as already mentioned, relies heavily on his tremendous instincts to get to balls (a B-Pro Eyewitness Report by Nick Faleris on Almora said at one point that his "physical tools should not allow him to get to the balls he reaches"). Losing half a step could potentially drop him from a gold-glove caliber defender to merely solid; losing more could raise even more questions about his ability to stick at the position.

Outlook

It was announced about a week ago that Almora was getting elevated to the full-time AFL roster instead of being relegated to weekend play on the taxi squad. That should prove a nice challenge for him, facing older competition and some of the best prospects in the game. 2014 should see Albert start the year in Daytona, with a focus on staying healthy for a full season and getting ~120 or so games worth of PAs under his belt. If he can avoid the nicks and dings that kept him off the field for so much of 2013, there's no reason why he shouldn't be in Tennessee by mid-season, as I don't personally expect the FSL to pose much of a challenge for him. That would put him on track for a 2015 major league arrival, where hopefully at least one of the Baez/Bryant/Soler group will already have established themselves as a productive talent and allow Almora's bat some breathing room to develop.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

Shocking News That is Shocking: Banks & Williams to Appear at Cubs Convention

I know all of you have been laying awake at night and wondering if you might get a chance to see either Billy Williams or Ernie Banks at the Cubs Convention in January. Sure, they have both been there every other year, and the Cubs never miss an opportunity to trot the 1969 Cubs out to talk about what might have been, but maybe Ernie has had enough and is willing to say the Cubs will be shitty until at least twenty-fifty. Well, fear no more. According to the Cubs Twitter feed:

Update! Billy Williams & Ernie Banks are confirmed for the ’14 #CubsCon. Stay tuned for more alumni updates! http://t.co/o8KIRDlHfx

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) October 4, 2013

Thank goodness! Ernie must have come up with something that rhymes with "fourteen."

"The Cubs might not be a poor team in 2014!" Ernie will say it with pizzazz though.

Now we can go back to wondering whether Ronnie Woo will be there and if Al Yellon will renew his season tickets in the Bleachers again for next year.

As for me, I can confirm that I will probably be at the nearby bar drinking heavily again.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (66-93) at St. Louis Cardinals (94-65)

seriespreview

As long and tedious as this disappointing season has been, I'm still kind of surprised that it's now ending. Given that I haven't written a post in over a month (other than a quick aside about Marvin Miller's legacy on Labor Day), it's safe to say that I haven't been paying much attention to watching the Cubs circle the drain. I do however plan to watch most of this series, because it's going to be another 6 months until we have something approximating Cubs baseball back on the airwaves. At least the Pirates have finally gotten over the Curse Of Barry Bonds and made the playoffs this year, and they're by far the easiest team to root for in this year's playoffs (sorry, Rays fan). I'll bring these previews back for the assorted playoff series as they come, and then I'm back to facing even fewer things to try to write something about. This is a year, everyone.

The chances are low, but it would sure be nice to see the Cubs (and in parallel the Pirates) sweep the Cardinals out of the division lead.

Team Rankings

NL Rank listed in parentheses, team leaders chosen from those with a qualifying amount of PAs, IP, etc.

	Cubs	Team Leader	Cardinals	Team Leader
wRC+	88 (14th)	Rizzo (100)	105 (1st)	Carpenter (149)
BSR	-7.1 (11th)	Barney (2.6)	-1.6 (8th)	Carpenter (4.5)
UZR	39.1 (2nd)	Barney (11.4)	-49.1 (14th)	Kozma (6.1)
DRS	24 (7th)	Castillo (18)	-37 (14th)	Molina (12)
SP FIP-	103 (10th)	Jackson (94)	95 (2nd)	Wainwright (70)
RP FIP-	108 (14th)	Parker (69)	90 (4th)	Rosenthal (53)

The Cubs starting pitching was the strength of the team early on in the season, but not surprisingly after trading 40% of the staff their numbers dropped down the leaderboard. The Cubs pen finished as the third worst in the majors, progress from last year's worst-by-a-mile bullpen.

The Cardinals got huge production out of Matt Carpenter this year, and he led the team in fWAR at 7.1. Given how much success the Cardinals have had with sticking random players at second base, maybe the Cubs should consider signing/trading for a big name bat and move Anthony Rizzo to 2b (dying laughing). It just might work. You never know.

Pitching Matchups

Stats listed: ERA, FIP-, xFIP

Friday: Travis Wood, LHP (2.98, 99, 4.46) vs Lance Lynn, RHP (4.09, 92, 3.70), 7:15 PM CT

I wonder if the Cubs planned it out that their three major league quality pitchers (sorry, Rusin and Arrieta) would close out the year. Wood has been one of the few pleasant surprises of this squad, putting together a huge run of quality starts in the first half of the year and generally just not allowing runs. A big part of it is that his HR/FB rate was nearly cut in half this year, while the rest of his peripherals stayed roughly the same. As of right now, one peripheral that is exactly the same as last year's is his BABIP which sits at .244. He's posted a BABIP below .260 in three of his four seasons in the bigs, so I'm starting to cut him more slack in assuming that's just his thing. It looked like the Cubs had the edge in the Sean Marshall deal at the time of the trade, and after this season it's looking even better for the Cubs.

Lynn must have forgot how to win or something this year – after putting up 18 wins in his rookie season as a starter, he 'only' gathered 14 of the arbitrarily defined statistic this year. There's no real difference in any of his peripherals, teams have just been scoring on him a bit more this year. Lynn has a big fastball and throws it about 75% of the time, to great effect. This could be a pretty quick game.

Saturday: Edwin Jackson, RHP (4.74, 94, 3.80) vs Joe Kelly, RHP (2.81, 113, 4.23), 6:15 PM CT

We're thirty starts in and I'm still scratching my head over Edwin Jackson's 2013 season. His peripherals have been great all year, but he's generally looked like shit out there. His peripherals look almost identical (maybe even slightly better) than his 2011 season with Washington and St. Louis, when he posted a 3.79 ERA and started (poorly) in four playoff games. He never seemed to recover the dip in velocity that started last season with the Nats. I guess he's got three more years to figure it out.

I wouldn't be surprised if Scrubby Mc Scrubberson started this game and/or the next for the Cardinals, since odds are that they will clinch the division tonight. But if it is Kelly, the Cubs might be putting their position in the race to the top (of the 2014 draft) in jeapordy. Kelly is a heavily groundball-oriented pitcher that doesn't strike many batters out, and has had a lot of luck with stranding and BABIP. I'm guessing Kelly wouldn't be a part of the playoff rotation, at least not for the first round, so he might make this start anyway if the Cards clinch.

Sunday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (4.33, 98, 3.47) vs Someone, 1:15 PM CT

Adam Wainwright is penciled in as the Cards scheduled starter for this game, but I would be shocked if he actually makes the start since that the only way this is a meaningful game is if the Cubs to win the first two games of this series as well as the Pirates winning their next two games.

Shark didn't do as much as he might have hoped to make his case for an extension. After a strong start to the season his control slipped in a big way in the middle of the summer before eventually righting the ship over the last few weeks. He'll likely finish the season with over 210 innings, something acheived by only three other Cubs pitchers in the past decade (Dempster, Z, Maddux). Not bad company to be in, and something he can bring to the negotiating table.

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Mike Olt

mike-olt The Cubs acquired Mike Olt from the Rangers on July 22nd. Along with Olt, the Cubs acquired CJ Edwards, Justin Grimm and Neil Ramirez (PTBNL).

Olt is 6-2, weighs 210 lbs., bats and throws right-handed. The 3rd baseman was the 22nd ranked prospect in baseball entering 2013 by both mlb.com and Baseball America.

He was drafted in the 1st supplemental round in 2010 (49th overall) out of UConn. His brother had or still was playing there. He signed with the Rangers for $717,300.

Performance

.201/.303/.381 in 432 plate appearances (all but 12 of them at AAA). I wish that was all that I had to write.

Like Brett Jackson before him and many others before Brett Jackson, strikeouts are a huge reason for the decline. In many ways, the Cubs acquired a reclamation project in the Matt Garza trade. A project they were more than aware of, but were happy to take the risk and add his potential bat to the organization. It wouldn't be such a bad season if he hit quite well with Iowa, but he did not.

Quite the opposite happened. He was somehow worse. In 152 plate appearances with Iowa he hit shit/shit/shit. In numeric terms that is .168/.276/.275. It was good for a .262 wOBA and 48 wRC+.

Over his full season he struckout in 30% of his plate appearances and walked in 13.2%. My mom told if you can't say something nice about someone, don't say it. Unfortunately, I've already said bad things so I'll find a positive here and it's that the guy can walk. So could Brett Jackson and a lot of the others that have strikeout problems. Sorry, that's just about as nice as I can get in describing Olt's season.

I'll repost this bit I put together back in July.

Player

GDP

HBP

Player A

550

465

125

146

233

Player B

550

471

130

149

223

Player A is Mike Olt and he has more overall power than Player B (Brett Jackson). He takes a few more walks and their strikeouts are within 3 and keep in mind these are minor league stats. Olt hit 55 extra base hits to Jackson's 50. These players are a pretty close match even when you get to fielding.

One is an infielder and the other a centerfielder, but the positional adjustment is the same for both positions. Olt is known as a very good fielder so he probably has the edge on Jackson here who was seen as above average to good in CF.

This doesn't mean Olt is headed for the same type of career. He could still turn out to be better, but Jackson was highly thought of too. The problem with striking out at the rate these two have over their careers is that your just not putting the ball in play enough to hit for a high enough average. You have to make up for it with exceptional walk rates and be exceptional in other areas. Sometimes that's not even enough.

Scouting

I'll post some scouting reports since there's so much information about him. Assume it was written prior to 2013 unless it's otherwise obvious when it was written.

The 49th overall pick in the 2010 draft, Olt raced to Texas in little more than two years despite missing half of the 2011 season after breaking his collarbone in a home-plate collision. He led the Double-A Texas League with 28 homers and a .579 slugging percentage in 2012 before being called up in August. Plantar fasciitis in his left foot kept him out of the lineup for most of September. With plus raw power and a strong hitting approach, Olt is a threat to go deep anytime he steps to the plate. He works deep counts and piles up both walks and strikeouts, so his average will settle in the .260-.270 range. Pitchers have had success exploiting the length in his swing by attacking him with high fastballs, and he continues to work to identify and stay back on breaking balls. Scouts say Olt is a joy to watch defensively, owing to his agility and ability to make throws from any angle. He’s a well below-average runner. Like Profar, Olt has advanced rapidly thanks to his tools, work ethic and mental toughness. He’s blocked in Texas by Adrian Beltre, so a shift to first base or an outfield corner could be in the works. A potential all-star, he could open 2013 in the big league lineup or get a couple of months in Triple-A. — Baseball America

The de facto top prospect prize moved this summer, Olt was once a no-brainer top 50 talent, but struggles at the plate have depressed his value, and the Rangers made him expendable in the deal for Matt Garza. The ceiling is still in the first-division range, with an average hit tool but legit over-the-fence power potential, the kind that is quite appealing given his above-average defensive profile at third base. The downside is a hit tool that might fail to play up to average and could limit the utility of his power, making him an exploitable target of higher-level pitching. I’d put a role 5 on him, with some risk given the questions about the bat-to-ball ability. — Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus at the trade deadline this year.

Olt entered the 2013 season seemingly ready for a big league job, but there was no room on the Rangers' Opening Day roster. Then Olt had problems with blurry vision that caused him to get off to a bad start and miss the entire month of May. He bounced back in June, regaining his power stroke, before being dealt to the Cubs in the Matt Garza trade in July. His hands, range and arm, the last of which being his best defensive tool, all play very well at third, though he's seen time at first and in the outfield as well. Olt may not hit for a really high average, and fans should be prepared for a good amount of strikeouts, but he'll also draw a ton of walks and is a better all-around hitter than many anticipated. The power is legit, too, and it's not a projection. Assuming healthy, he should be ready to hit in Wrigley Field soon. — mlb.com

Olt has received a lot of hype in the past year and has been mentioned in numerous trade rumors. A potential plus defender at the hot corner, his path to third base at the big-league level is currently blocked by veteran Adrian Beltre. Olt has seen time in both right field — where his range would probably be below average — and at first base. His strong arm would be wasted at first base. I asked a talent evaluator if he thought Olt would be an above-average defender elsewhere on the field, right away. “Not necessarily,” the person said. “We feel he can be average at first base or in the outfield now and play higher as he gets more experience out there. He is athletic and has a plus arm, and the footwork, particularly at first base, should come along.”

Olt, 24, slugged 28 home runs in Double-A and has above-average power. His pop impressed the contact I spoke with and he said, “He has easy power. The ball jumps off his bat and has a different sound than many hitters. The challenge for him offensively will be to cut down on the swing-and-miss and continue being more selective at the plate. We think [ hitting coach] Dave Magadan will be a tremendous influence on Mike and they have already started to work together with some early, positive results.”

Olt isn’t afraid to take walks but he strikes out a lot, which will drag down his batting average. He struggles with pitch recognition at times and his swing can get long. He has a chance to be a .260 hitter with 20 home runs and above-average defense at third base. — Fangraphs

Grade A-: Borderline B+. Bothered by vision problem early, hitting just .205/.310/.388 in Triple-A, still has power, defense, but strikeout rate is getting the best of him at this point. He turns 25 next month, needs a shot soon. Mentioned in trade rumors every 12 seconds. — Sickels

Outlook

Well, if Olt can cut his strikeout rate down to a manageable and poor 25%, he has a real chance to succeed at the MLB level. He won't reach the potential Cubs fans are thinking are there at that rate, but he'd be at the MLB level at least. There's decent reason to think he can do that. Prior to AAA it was below that and even at Iowa it just slightly over 24%. There's also reason to think it's only go get worse when he gets the MLB level.

That's really about all that needs to be written here. It's all about the strikeouts for Olt. Find a way to cut them down while maintaining a good enough walk rate that you can still have a decent OBP.

While Jackson and Olt may be similar, it's worth pointing out that Jackson would have the platoon advantage about twice as often as Olt. Against righties since 2011 (includes all but 310 of minor league plate appearances), he's hit exceptionally well against lefties. You'd expect that. Against righties, he's hit just .239/.337/.453 over 772 plate appearances. He's mashed lefties (.273/.405/.555).

If Olt struggles to reduce the strikeout rate, he could probably be a right-handed pinch hitter and give you plus defense at 3rd. I think he has a future ahead of him. It just probably isn't going to be all that bright of a future.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Christian Villanueva

Christian Villanueva came to the Cubs in the Ryan Dempster deal at the 2012 trade deadline. A J2 signing by the rangers in 2008, Villanueva cuts a less than imposing figure, standing 5'11-160. His 2011 campaign hinted at the potential for surprising pop, however, as he ISO'd .186 for the Rangers' Low-A Hickory affiliate. Combined with his sterling glovework at third, Villanueva's time at Hickory earned him the attention of the scouting community, with Baseball America slotting him as the 9th ranked prospect in the Rangers system and 100th overall.

2012 saw a promotion to high-A Myrtle Beach and a .50 point drop in ISO for Mr. Newhouse before the trade deadline. That, combined with the Rangers' system depth at third-base dropped his stock enough that he could be acquired for two months of an aging Ryan Dempster. Arriving at Daytona seemed to help Villanueva find his power-stroke again, as he completed his 95 PAs there with 4 homers after hitting only 10 in the 425 PAs previous.

2013 brought with it a promotion to Tennessee and the hope that the power outage for the lion's share of 2012 was an aberration.

Performance

You could say that 2012 was a mixed bag for Villanueva. The power stroke returned, posting an ISO of .208, a career high in slugging (.469), hitting 19 homers and leading the southern league in both doubles and extra base hits. But the overall slash line left something to be desired, as he hit .261/.317/.469. Villanueva had never hit for a high average, nor had he shown a particularly patient approach (never posting a walk rate over 7% for a full season). What he had done, before arriving at Tennessee, was show an impressive ability to get on base via the HBP, stepping in front of 12 pitches in 2011 and 21 in 2012. He was only plunked 9 times in 2013, however, and combined with his worst walk rate since rookie ball, the result was his lowest OBP in pro ball.

He was recognized by Baseball America as being the best defensive 3B in the southern league, reflecting the excellent value Christian brings with his glove. He was also recognized as the third-base representative on the Southern League postseason All-Star Team. That's the good news for Villanueva: as good as his glove is, a .317 OBP in AA isn't completely damning to his value as a prospect, particularly if he can continue to hit for power.

One thing to note is that Villanueva got off to a frigid start, batting .205/.275/.313/ in April and .257/.312/.450 before the All-Star Break. His .270/.328/.509 line in the second half is quite encouraging, and hopefully is a prelude to a 2014 offensive breakout.

Scouting

BA had this to say in the Prospect Handbook before the season:

Blocked by Adrian Beltre and Mike Olt in Texas, Villanueva's chances for future playing time improved dramatically when the Rangers dealt him and strike-throwing righthander Kyle Hendricks to the Cubs for Ryan Dempster. He still has to worry about Jeimer Candelario and perhaps Javier Baez (if he moves to third base), but Villanueva suddenly has a lot more upward mobility. On the 20-80 scouting scale, one Cubs official described him as having 80 makeup, 70 defense and questionable power. Villanueva's short stroke is conducive to line drives more than longballs, and he tends to inside-out quality fastballs and serve them to the opposite field. He has the potential for average power, but he'll have to get stronger and turn on more pitches to get there. He can hit for solid average and provide some doubles. He has fringy speed but has the instincts to steal bases if the defense doesn't pay attention to him. Defense is where Villanueva really shines. He has the first-step quickness, hands, arm strength and savvy to make tough plays look routine. Chicago added him to its 40-man roster and will send him to Double-A in 2013. He could get a big league audition sometime the following year.

2013 has changed a few things for Villanueva on this front; for one, Mike Olt is now theoretically blocking him once more, although the gap between their perceived value is shrinking quickly. And while the latest rumors have Javier Baez moving to second base now instead of third, the drafting of Kris Bryant muddles Villanueva's future at the hot corner, and Candelario is still a factor. Another year of solid pop has at least quieted some of the questions about Villanueva's power stroke, but with it have come steadily increasing K-rates, adding a point in K% at each stop along the minor league path. Meanwhile his walk rate continues to drift somewhere between crappy and untenable, with BABIPs that are solid but not extraordinary, hovering mostly around the .300 mark for the lion's share of his minor league career.

All that said, the defense is the carrying tool, and his bat really just has to be decent for Villanueva to be a valuable player.

Outlook

The third-base situation in Des Moines figures to be fairly messy next season, with Villanueva, Olt, Bryant, and potentially Baez all at decent odds to find ABs there. Given this, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see Villanueva get traded as part of a package for a starter this winter, as his value is more on the uptick than Olt. In an ideal scenario (barring a trade), Olt lights the world on fire in March next season and earns a spot on the big league roster, leaving Villanueva to man third at Iowa until Bryant is ready to move on from Tennessee. Regardless, I would be fairly surprised to see Olt and Villanueva both in the organization come next year's trade deadline. Third base is one of the few areas of serious organizational depth at the moment, and the major league club is going to need pitching badly if it plans on contending anytime soon.

For his part, Villanueva should be a useful piece for whatever major league club decides to give him a look. I'd set his floor as a Barney-esque defensive replacement bench bat, his ceiling as a first-division starter if the power plays in the majors and the strikeout rate stays under control, and splitting the difference as a second division regular being the most likely outcome for his career.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Neil Ramirez

neil-ramirez Neil Ramirez was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2007 Draft (44th overall). He turned 24 at the end of May so he's not exactly young. He's 6-4 and weighs 190 pounds and is a right-handed starting pitcher. The Cubs acquired him, along with Mike Olt, Justin Grimm and CJ Edwards for Matt Garza on July 22nd of this year. He was the player to be named later in the trade and the Cubs acquired him just before the end of the minor league season.

Performance

Neil Ramirez has not set the world on fire in the minor leagues. He's struckout quite a few batters and that's what makes him so interesting to me. His minor league strikeout rate is 24.6%. His walk rate is a more than solid 9.7%. In 2013, over 107.2 innings in AA, he struckout 30.6% and walked 10.2% of the batters faced. His FIP was right at about 3.10, which is impressive. He was 24 years old this year so that has to be taken into consideration.

He's also become somewhat prone to injury since 2011. He suffered through sorness in the shoulder at one point that year, as well as sorness in the right forearm. There was question about his shoulder before the Cubs acquired him this season, but it's safe to say the Cubs would have checked his medical history and felt comfortable with what they were getting. That does not mean that it's alright or that there is nothing to worry about. It just means in the end the Cubs preferred Neil Ramirez over the two players they could have had otherwise.

The most innings he's pitched in the minor leagues was 140.1 and that was in 2010. The injuries have prevented him from racking up a larger total and it's certainly a concern going forward.

Scouting

Since there is so much information on Neil Ramirez, it's best to just quote the experts here.

Texas League managers deemed Ramirez to have the best changeup in the league this season. He hides the ball well and sells the mid-80s change with deceptive arm speed, and the pitch is made all the more effective because Ramirez tops out at 96 mph. His power slider also acts as a plus pitch at times, with the only thing holding him back is a lack of control. That and a hard-to-repeat arm swing might spell a career in the bullpen, but he could excel in a relief role. — Baseball America (time of trade)

He was ranked 23rd in the Rangers organization entering the 2013 season by Baseball America.

Ramirez has made halting progress after signing for $1 million as the 2007 draft’s 44th pick. He took two cracks at low Class A before rocketing up the minor league ladder and this list (all the way to No. 5) following a 2011 season that he finished in the Round Rock rotation. His success vanished as quickly as it had arrived during a rocky 2012 campaign, during which he dealt with shoulder fatigue and earned a late-June demotion to Double-A. He made his final appearance of the season out of the bullpen and showed a consistent 95-97 mph fastball after settling in at 90-94 as a starter. The Rangers believe relieving better suits his personality because Ramirez tends to overthink things as a starter. He has cleaned up his arm circle in recent years, reducing the severity of a high-elbow backswing, but an inconsistent release point still affects the quality of his secondary pitches when he doesn’t stay on top of them. He sells a high-80s changeup with natural deception, and it’s a plus pitch at times. He started throwing a slider in 2012, and it flashes promising tilt. He hangs his curveball too much for it to be viable at higher levels. If he stays in the bullpen, Ramirez could vie with fellow 40-man roster members Wilmer Font and Roman Mendez for relief innings in Arlington this year.

mlb.com ranks him 12th in the Cubs organization (following his acquisition).

Ramirez's feel-good breakout of 2011, when he pitched at three levels effectively, ending at Triple-A, was followed up by a bit of a return to reality in 2012. The right-hander was acquired by the Cubs in August, via the Matt Garza trade, during a big 2013 season in which he is trying to prove that 2011 wasn't a mirage, but who he truly is as a pitcher. He has an intriguing combination of stuff and command, and he has all it takes to be a mid-rotation starter. He commands his fastball very well and throws a deceptive changeup with it. Both of his breaking pitches are effective, with the slider having the chance to be above-average.

Sickels prior to the season:

18) Neil Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: Tough to get a handle on after wildly erratic season, failed in Triple-A and was spotty after going down to Double-A though sometimes effective. I have been very high on him in the past but he might do better with a change of scenery. Trade bait?

Outlook

It's not out of the question, but probably unlikely that Neil Ramirez could make the Cubs Opening Day roster. It's probably out of the question that he'd do so as a starter and I'm sure the Cubs want to see if there's a starter there. As I said, he's not young and will get to go up to AAA (did so in 2011 also) and see if he can put together back to back quality seasons for the first time in his career. If he stumbles early I expect we'll begin to hear talk about him as a possible late-inning reliever. If he does well the Cubs will probably leave him there to prove it and then call him up when they need to.

I don't believe the Cubs are in a hurry, but at 25 next year Ramirez may feel like time is beginning to run out.

Ramirez has potential, but most minor leaguers have that. He has the ability to blow batters away, which most minor leaguers can't do. His changeup is a plus pitch and as a reliever he'd probably become very effective. If either of the slider or curve can develop further he could easily have 3 plus pitches with a chance for a fourth.

In all likelihoos he's a reliever at some point, but he has the upside of a number 2 or 3 starter.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

Race to the Top: The Cubs (Probably) Won’t Lose 100 This Year

The Cubs can probably kiss even the #2 pick away as they failed to gain any ground on the Marlins as they remain 6.5 games behind Miami. The Cubs are actually closer to falling out of the Top 10 draft picks altogether (5 games) than they are to catching Miami.

As I mentioned last week, Houston is sewing up back-to-back 1st pick finishes. Extending their overall lead on Miami from 6.5 games to 7. They're on pace to lose 108 games. It's quite a showing from the boys in Houston.

The Cubs remained in the #4 spot, losing a game and a half to the hard-charging White Sox that just ended their 9-game losing streak yesterday, but gaining a half game on the 5th place spot previously occupied by Milwaukee and now owned by Minnesota. The Cubs can still catch the White Sox, but it's going to be difficult especially since the Cubs keep getting decent pitching from everybody they plug into the rotation down the stretch. Rusin has been decent, Arrieta is inconsistent but occasionally very good, and now Scott Baker debuted with 5 shutout innings. Compared to last year's parade of guys whose names I've already deleted from my memory, the current crop are Cy Young candidates by comparison.

This is probably the biggest reason the Cubs will most likely not meet my prediction of 100 losses again. They can't finish over .500 anymore as they lost their 82nd game yesterday, but they can still avoid 100 losses by winning 3 of their last 20 games. It's not impossible since they'll be playing a lot of playoff teams down the stretch (16 of their last 20), but 2-18 is hard to do for the worst teams. They can accidentally win 3 games and finish with 99 losses.

Remaining schedule:

3 at Cincinnati
4 at Pittsburgh
4 at Milwaukee
3 vs. Atlanta
3 vs. Pittsburgh
3 at St. Louis

Updated prediction:

Cubs finish 66-96. They'll win 4 on their current road trip and 2 of their last 9. The X factor will be how they play Milwaukee, but the Brewers seem to have it in for the Cubs and they won't mail that series in.

Race to the Top: Winning Games, Losing Ground

The Cubs lost 3 and won 4 games since the last time we checked in, so while this doesn't really qualify as a winning trend, it didn't really help the Cubs in their quest for as high a draft pick as possible:

Houston has kept a strong grip on the overall #1 pick, and gained some help when their top offensive threat, catcher Jason Castro, sprained a knee. A second consecutive top draft choice looks very promising for the Astros.

The Cubs briefly held the #3 pick, but a combination of winning a series against the Philadelphia Rynos and the White Sox losing 4 straight has actually caused the Cubs to lose a game in the Draft standings to the White Sox, falling a 1.5 games pack of the third pick. The Cubs also lost a game and a half in the race for the overall top and sit at 13 games back. Any hopes of the Cubs adding Carlos Rodon to their pitching staff are pretty much dead.

Meanwhile the Padres and Mariners are now in a position for a protected pick, while the Angels and Blue Jays recent competency have dropped them out of the Top 10 picks for now. But there's still a long way to go.