A Tale of Two Sluggers

It was the worst of times, it was the best of times.They were the suckiest of sluggers, they were the strongest of sluggers. They couldn’t hit, they couldn’t be retired. This is the tale of two sluggers who gave us two quarter seasons of two extremes . . . that apparently made no difference.

Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena began the year looking like two black holes in an already pretty crappy lineup. The two corner infielders seemed to form the cornerstone of the Cubs’ offensive hopes, so when they crumbled it was no surprise that this team struggled to win.

Then something happened. Like a Dyson promises never to do, they both stopped sucking. In fact, they didn’t just no longer suck, they began to hit like players whose team might have a chance of winning. I don’t need to tell you how that worked out for the team, but I thought I would take a look at just how drastically different their springs were from their summers.

I’ve divided each of their seasons so far into halves. Aramis Ramirez has played in 86 games, so I separated his pre-All Star stats into 43-game splits. Carlos Pena was less cooperative and played in 87, so I’ll just put game 44 (a 1-3, 1 BB performance) in the second half to better support my case.

Here were their first-half numbers:

Name G Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE BA OBP SLG

OPS

BAbip

Aramis Ramirez 43 20-23 183 166 14 49 12 0 1 17 13 1 21 3 0 1 2 .295 .355 .386 .741 .331
Carlos Pena 43 20-23 162 129 15 27 3 0 5 19 29 1 43 1 1 2 0 .209 .354 .349 .703

.265

Now that’s bad. For both guys. Aramis had a respectable batting average, but it corresponded with Theriot-grade power numbers and no small amount of BAbip luck. The team was actually within shouting distance of .500 at the time, little thanks to these two. So let’s see how they did in the second half.

Name G Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
Aramis Ramirez 43 15-28 178 166 29 50 9 0 14 34 6 0 26 4 0 2 1 .301 .337 .608 .946 .281
Carlos Pena 44 16-28 178 155 28 37 5 1 14 30 20 1 45 1 0 2 2 .239 .326 .555 .881 .235

I love this. Both men improved despite seeing their BAbip and OBP go down, mainly because they started to hit for power. They both struck out at about the same frequency (a bit more, actually). They both walked a little less frequently. The obvious difference is that they both started hitting the ball out of the ballpark, which tends to help offensive matters. What I love most? The impact this made on the team.

The power surge in the middle of the Cubs’ lineup coincided with a precipitous drop in win percentage. Essentially, Ramirez hitting like an All Star and Pena slugging the ball with authority saved the team from being lethally unwatchable. The Cubs went from being a near-.500 team with no pop in the first 1/4 of the season to being a .350 team in the second, all while the guys they needed to hit for power started to do so with consistency.

So if your best hitters work their way out of a power slump on a sustained basis and your team actually becomes twice as bad, what does that say about your team? I think it says, “You suck!” really, really loud. Rammy and ‘Losy hitting for power was one of those “if only” factors optimistic Cubs fans clung to in the first quarter of the season. Well, that “if only” came true, and the team got worse. This team? This record. That’s our reality, Cubs fans. Savor every moment.

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Nick Jonas Takes BP At Wrigley – Why Not Sign Him?

NickJonasshouldbeaCub.Endofstory.According to Phil Rogers (and, I assume, everyone else who was there), Nick Jonas took batting practice with the Cubs prior to today’s makeup game against the Rockies. Phil says there are no plans to give the teeny-bopper heartthrob a shot at the everyday lineup, but I don’t understand why. Here’s the quote from Phil:

Being that Jonas is a right-handed hitter with little power, the Cubs did not make a move to squeeze him into their lineup against the Rockies.

Am I missing something? Have the Cubs stopped employing right-handed hitters with little power? Someone alert every right-handed hitter in the Cubs system. Looks like they’re soon to be out of jobs.

I say sign the kid. Look, there’s a misconception going around that the primary goal of any MLB franchise is to win championships. False. That’s like saying it’s the primary goal of every movie studio and production company to win Academy Awards. The primary goal is to make money. Winning is a nice bonus. If you disagree with that, let me direct you to a site that will explain to you in detail that winning is a tertiary goal at best.

Sign Nick Jonas. Sign Justin Bieber. Sign whoever will help sell tickets and bring in revenue from untapped markets. I don’t think winning is in the cards, right now. The least the Cubs can do is cash in on celebrities willing to put on a jersey.

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Cubs and the Interleagues: the Gimmick Is Working

The Cubs just beat the White Sox. It wasn’t the most exciting athletic event of my lifetime. It won’t give me sufficient ammunition to make my White Sox fan friends cry in their Monster energy drinks. I was nervous at exactly zero points during the game.

But the game was entertaining.

Okay, so I had to break out the meaningless one-sentence paragraph just to manufacture a sense of drama, but this is the boring hand the Cubs have dealt us this year. Still, these interleague games are fun to watch. I find myself actually wanting to sit down and watch the game. For me, the gimmick is working.

Even without the sideshow factor, this game was enjoyable. It had Starlin Castro hitting his 2nd of 25 homers. It had Carlos Pena being good at baseball again (hard to believe he’s got 12 home runs now). It featured Carlos Marmol scaring the crap out of Carlos Zambrano again. (These multiple-Carlos games aren’t nearly as comfortable as they used to be.) And let’s not forget Ozzie Guillen getting ejected for arguing that a ball may have been foul (still haven’t seen a conclusive replay, and it looked fair to me . . . who cares). It was entertaining on its own.

The gimmick itself, though, makes me more interested. I still watch Cubs games even though I never post here. I’m not even sure this will make it on the Internets or if I’m just dreaming that I’m making a contribution. But I got crap going on, and the Cubs haven’t been a reason for me to drop everything or carve out time in my somewhat nonboring schedule. But for the Yankees? Yeah, I’m making the time to see those games. I’m excited to see them play the Royals. And even the White Sox are making me interested in games again. Because this year? Interest is no guarantee.

So give me the Yankees. Give me the Royals. Give me Ozzie Guillen’s crazy mask-kicking exits. Put it all in a big dopey Crosstown Cup, and I’ll be happy to watch that metaphor go nowhere. My point is, the Cubs aren’t easy on the eyes. They’re a bad baseball team. I’m happy to see games against AL teams to create even the flimsiest illusion that it’s October and these games mean everything.

Actually, when the gimmick is over and the only drama we have left is how large the double-digit NL Central deficit will grow, the illusion of significance will be gone. In a way, these games do mean everything. Even if in another way, a more realistic and accurate one, they’re completely meaningless, I’ll continue to cling to my contrivances just for kicks.

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The Cubs Are Still In It!

Tim is right: 2011 is not the Cubs’ year. (see also: 1909-2010). But not everybody needs to think that way.

There are two approaches to being a fan (probably more, but I’m concerning this argument about these two alone . . . unless I get so inspired to consider others; I doubt it): thinking like a player and thinking like an owner. One approach tends to be more relentlessly optimistic, while the other stirs up storm clouds of doom and gloom not unlike those delaying today’s Cubs vs. Pirates titanic clash.

I’ll take a look at the latter, more pragmatic (and, at this point, pessimistic) approach first. When you think like an owner, you ask the basic question: “What should the Cubs do?” Another way of phrasing it: If I were the owner, GM, manager of the team, what would I do? Well, I think most of us agree that ownership and management can’t afford to be blind optimists. If it’s your money or your job on the line, you don’t make decisions based on what you hope will happen but instead on what you think will happen based on hard facts and well thought-out philosophies.

If you think like an owner, you look at this Cubs team and realize the writing on the wall is all too easy to read. It’s “Cubs Suck” in bright blue graffiti. You start thinking about how to make the team better. You start thinking about 2012 and beyond. You realize that fighting desperately to compete in 2011 probably runs counter to the team’s best long-term interests. 

You realize that cheering for success in 2011 is pointless. If you think like an owner. Nothing wrong with that.

But that same owner (and you probably) expects the players to adopt a completely different attitude. If I’m paying guys many millions of dollars to try to compete on a lost cause of a team, I expect them to try their best each and every time to the plate, each and every pitch, each and every defensive play, and every single game. I expect them to expect to win. Always. Even though I know they’ll more likely to lose, I expect the players I’m paying to embrace some rather unrealistic expectations.

That’s one reason we weigh all performance essentially the same. We don’t value stats accumulated in a pennant race any higher or lower than those put up when the team is out of contention. Players on winning teams are expected to compete as fiercely as they can. Players on crappy teams are expected to compete just as tenaciously. Playing for a championship or playing for pride, athletes aren’t extended any grace based on their circumstances. They’re expected to try to win, no matter how ridiculous that might seem.

Players shouldn’t get discouraged. Players shouldn’t concede. Players should never give up hope, even after mathematics declares hope dead.

Some fans, a lot of fans, take that approach. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Is it stupid? Let me say this as plainly as I can: there is nothing intelligent about being a Cubs fan. There’s nothing intelligent about being a sports fan of any kind. We do this for fun. Sometimes being a Cubs fan is fun. It’s rarely, if ever, smart.

So I don’t begrudge anyone who takes the die-hard approach of a player on the team. Go ahead and describe yourself as a member of the team. Invoke the collective we. We need to keep trying. We need to rally. We need to do whatever we can to win and win now. Fine. I like people who think that way. It’s an admirable quality in a fan, a teammate, or a friend.

If you’re a fan who thinks like a player and approaches every game as a new opportunity to try to win, who believes that every year has a chance to be the year, and who cheers as loud as your vocal chords will allow at the slightest sign of positive progress, I applaud you. (I might not want to hear you pontificate on why your approach is superior, but I applaud you nonetheless.)

So go ahead and keep hope alive. Tell all the haters and naysayers to embrace love and say, “Yeah,” and enjoy every minute of it if you can. There’s nothing wrong with thinking like a player when you’re a fan.

Unless, of course, you’re a fan who actually happens to be the owner.

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Random Cubs Notes and Ramblings

The world won’t end today, but by the 5th inning of tonight’s game, you’ll wish it had.

The Cubs aren’t just modeling themselves after the Red Sox, they’re four years ahead of the curve. They signed a speedy left fielder with diminishing potential to a gaudy longterm contract long before Theo Epstein made it fashionable. (h/t, of course, to Berselius)

The debate over who is faster, The Flash or Superman, once became so heated that it shut down the DC Comics discussion forum. Peace was restored after the argument was rendered moot by Tony Campana

It’s too bad the Cubs aren’t playing at home this weekend. Tom Ricketts could have blamed the empty seats on the Rapture.

RIP Randy Savage.

Since both broadcasting teams remind us three times a game, I don’t think we really have that hard of a time remembering that Starlin Castro is only 21 years old.

I honestly have no idea what to make of Darwin Barney.

Dishonestly, I’m sure Darwin Barney is the second coming of Mickey Morandini.

Keith Moreland could stand to loosen up a bit.

A decent owner would have lowered ticket prices after last season. A lot.

The Cubs used to have a ballgirl named Marla Collins. That was weird.

Arnold Schwarzenegger was governor of California. That’s a lot harder to believe than that he’s the political equivalent of Shawn Kemp.

Bill Buckner is not a broadcaster. He’s Ron Swanson trapped behind a microphone.

Someday, Tony Campana will get lost in the ivy.

The next time the Cubs hold a team meeting they should invite better players.

It might be time to admit that Alfonso Soriano‘s biggest asset is his defense.

Pretty sure Wellington Castillo is just Koyie Hill with thumbs.

What if Rudy Jaramillo really is making the Cubs offense better? How bad could they have been without him?

Len and Bob will be broadcasting a game from the Bud Light Bleachers. They’re actually getting paid to sit there. The Cubs’ best customers must be livid.

Hurry up, Randy Wells.

Take it easy, Andrew Cashner.

Stay away, Kevin Millwood.

Do your thing, Derrick Rose.

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The Cubs Are Who We Thought They Were

Tony Campana will remember May 17, 2011 as the day he made his major league debut, the day he scored his first run, notched his first RBI, and delivered the first single of his career. People around the world might remember it as a night with a full moon, particularly if they gave birth, went cuckoo, or were attacked by werewolves. People around baseball will remember it as the day Harmon Killebrew took his battle with cancer to the other side of the fence.

Anyone who witnessed the Cubs play the Reds last night will have trouble shaking the memory of the worst baseball game we ever witnessed. The Reds won, as they did the night before, by being the team who screwed up slightly less spectacularly. And let me be clear, I’m not talking about bad hitting, throwing fat pitches down over the heart of the plate, or even foolish managerial decisions. There may have been some of that on both sides, but you can expect to see such things even in well played baseball games.

No, the stuff of last night’s game was, on a scale of unicorn farts to elephant crap, an overflowing canyon of Godzilla diarrhea. Five of the Reds’ 7 runs yesterday were scored on two balls that didn’t leave the infield, one of them a sacrifice bunt. That’s a grounder to first and a sacrifice bunt to the pitcher. Five. Runs.

Then there was Wellington Castillo, successfully gloving strike three in the dirt and then watching Miguel Cairo wander aimlessly to the dugout no to first base ha ha, tricked you! That was awesome. Oh, and remember when Reed Johnson was up with two runners on and nobody out and he fouled a bunt, missed a bunt, and then swung and missed for strike three? Yeah, when the Reds sac bunt, they score two runs and move the bunter to third. When the Cubs do it, they’re lucky to make contact. They’re gamers, though, so whatever.

Mike Quade pretty much agrees with this assessment, by the way. He said, “If we haven’t hit rock bottom with this, we’re pretty damn close.”

It was embarrassing to watch. I had been working with my seven-year-old son on proper catching technique and actually brought him inside to watch the Cubs game to see how comfortably professionals can catch a baseball. Oh, how I wish I could undo that decision. The boy is scarred for life. Dear God, what have I done?

It’s cool, God, I’ll answer my own question. I’ve failed to stay in touch with appropriate expectations.  Heading into this year, we knew the Cubs were not built to contend. The other guys here at Obstructed View have done fantastic jobs of presenting the projections and comparing the team’s progress against expectations. I won’t redouble their efforts (though if I overcome this bout of laziness, I’ll link to some of them). Suffice it to say that the Cubs are a little worse than was generally expected, but their current place in the standings certainly fits within the realm of reasonable expectations.

We shouldn’t be surprised the Cubs are a below-.500 team. We expected this.

The Cubs also play baseball, a sport in which crazy things sometimes happen. Two wild throws from two different Cubs pitchers resulting in five Reds runs? That’s crazy. Bad as last night’s game was, I don’t want to sit here in my dank corner of the Interbasement saying that last night’s game is indicative of the Cubs’ true talent. Either one of those plays would stand on their own merits as just a fluke, an aberration, a quirk in the game of baseball that, while unexpected, is bound to show up at one time or another. The fact that they both happened in one game to the same star-crossed team? That’s just sprinkles on the funfetti cake of miserable baseball that is the 2011 Cubs. But honestly, it could have happened to any baseball team. That’s just how baseball goes sometimes.

We shouldn’t be surprised by the occasional embarrassing game (or even two in succession). That’s baseball.

And let’s not forget, this is the Cubs we’re talking about here. Lou called them Cubbie Occurrences. Lou Piniella is a genius. These things seem to happen to the Cubs. Maybe it’s a myth. Maybe our perception is lying to us. Even so, bizarre losses and abysmal plays that make it look like the Cubs are cursed happen frequently enough that we shouldn’t be shocked when they recur. 

We shouldn’t be surprised that baseball’s bizarre flukes tend to play out so often before our eyes as Cubs fans. That’s Cubs baseball.

We should know, the Cubs aren’t the team historically that lucks their way into championships. They aren’t a team that buys their way into championships. They aren’t a franchise that builds from the ground up and sees a dynasty rise out of the ashes like a phoenix. They are Wile E. Coyote, and greatness is their Roadrunner. We shouldn’t expect them to catch it. We should expect them to come tantalizingly close and then fail spectacularly in creatively painful new ways. And even if they do eventually find themselves in a position of destiny, we can expect it to go something like this:

Forgive me if I find it all pretty entertaining.

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(Not) Tom Ricketts Clarifies Statements on Attendance

I was a little confused this morning when I read Ed Sherman’s interview with Tom Ricketts. In it, Ricketts said that the Cubs’ meagre attendance numbers had more to do with the soggy weather than the crappy baseball.

When you play most of your home games in 45 degrees and it’s wet, I’m sorry, I can understand why some people don’t want to come out. That’s been the driver here. Once we get some spring weather, people will want to be at the park.

This struck me as either incredibly naive or intentionally evasive, but I wanted to give Ricketts the chance to clear up that and some of his other more confusing statements (such as “I can’t stand it when I hear someone say they can’t afford to go to a game. It might be hard to get tickets for a Yankees or Sox game, but there’s no reason why they can’t afford to go another game.” Really, Tom? No reason anyone can’t afford to go to a game where the average ticket price is $FU?). Unfortunately, the terms of a certain restraining order don’t allow me to conduct one-on-one conversations with Cubs ownership, whoever that may be. So I did the next best thing:nottomricketts

I got a hold of @NotTomRicketts. I can usually count on him to be pretty straightforward, honest, and direct, especially when it comes to the subject of buying Cubs tickets. Here’s my Q&A with him that should help set the record straight.

April 2011 was the least sunniest April in Chicago history. How much do you think that has impacted ticket sales in the early going this season?

 

Tremendously. As you know, some of the finest meteorologists work here in Chicago and they were all predicting back in February that this would be a dreary April. I’m certain Tom Skilling and his cohorts scared a few people off from buying tickets in advance. Then when it turned out the weather predictions were correct, few people came out on the day of game. I mean, remember that Mother’s Day game against the Reds where we drew 31,000 or so? Can you really expect people to show up to a weekend sunny game with temperatures in the 60s against a division rival? What can you do about that? You can’t beat science.

Which do you think is more directly to blame for the Cubs poor performance thus far: bad weather or poor attendance?

The weather. Definitely the weather. Because, as I mentioned, the weather is primarily responsible for keeping the people away from the ballpark and that creates a dead atmosphere that the players don’t like. They need to feel that energy from the crowd to get clutch hits. Ari Kaplan tells me that the Cubs are batting .456 in clutch situations at home during sunny days when the crowd noise is “electric.” I know the games aren’t played on Ari’s statsheets, but he makes a compelling argument.

Who owns the Cubs?

This again. You bloggers never quit with this question do you? Can’t you just take our word like the mainstream media does? I’ll tell you what . . . I’m going to tell you a little secret . . . nobody fucking knows. If you look at the paperwork that completed the transfer from the Tribune, it is a mess of legalese that none of us understand. “Wherein the party of the first part agrees forthwith to the party of the second part on Article VI, subsection D, blah blah blah . . . ” Even Pete can’t figure out what the hell is going on and he is way smarter than me at this business stuff. I just tell everyone I’m the Executive Chairman and hope nobody fact checks it. But that information probably shouldn’t leave your mother’s basement.

Some people have accused this front office of putting too much pressure on Starlin Castro. To prove them wrong, list five players in the history of the game who had more potential than he does to save a floundering franchise.

(At this point, NotTomRicketts mumbled something about Babe Ruth and then trailed off. Read into that what you will.)

Did you miscalculate fan interest when you set the prices for Cubs tickets this offseason?

Not at all. We kept the overall average ticket price flat. We cannot stress that enough. On average, it costs the same amount to go to a Cubs game this year as it did last year. Last year was a shitty team. Let’s not pretend that last year wasn’t a complete joke that was all Lou’s fault. Now we have made a few solid moves and brought in a new staff ace in Matt Garza, good clubhouse guy Carlos Pena, and some old fan favorites back into the fold to make the team better. So fans are getting a better, more likable team that should be able to contend for the same amount as last year’s crap team. So, once again, if the ticket sales are down, it must be the weather.

What do you say to people who can’t afford to pay $60 a ticket or who think the ballpark concessions are too expensive?

We can’t have everything we want in life. For instance, I wanted the state to fork over $250 million to us to renovate Wrigley Field and build a bunch of revenue-driving shops and stuff out on Clark Street, but it didn’t happen. Did I whine and complain that the state wouldn’t give me the money? Well sure I did, we’re talking about $250 million being taken away from me and these people are complaining about $60 seats? Cry me a river. We went and provided plenty of cheap seats for people on budgets to come out to the ballpark, and did they show up for that Monday, April 4th game against the craptastic Diamondbacks? No. The 500 section up in the pigeon poop and spiderwebs was practically empty that day. And that was a pretty decent 47 degree day. That ain’t bad for April in Chicago, so I’m not sure what else people want.

Tickets are being priced on the secondary market for what some people would call reasonable market prices, substantially below face value. Is that fair to the fans who paid full price, and do you plan to offer a discount to make it up to your best customers?

It is probably not fair to our best customers since they paid full price way back in January before all this weather nonsense got started, but let’s face it, our best customers regularly bring their own baloney sandwiches with them to munch on while sitting in their crappy seat and cost us concession revenue. So I’m not all that inclined to bend over backwards for those people. Life isn’t always fair, or so I’ve been told from people who don’t have a billionaire father.

If ticket sales fail to rebound, who in this organization will take the fall for the disappointment?

Is Tom Skilling part of the organization? I think we may still have enough influence on the Tribune to get his ass fired. Otherwise, Todd says he knows a guy who fixes problems. That has nothing to do with anything, really. Todd just likes to brag.

Which is more likely to improve on a sustained basis: the Chicago weather or the Chicago Cubs?

I really think we are on the right course here. Ken Rosenthal also agrees with me, so I don’t think there is any rational argument otherwise at this point. Our plan of trading away valuable members of the minor leagues while simultaneously relying on prospects taken way above their consensus draft slot to perform at the major league level can’t possibly fail. I believe that. It’s what gets me through the nights. Say, you wouldn’t want to buy any Cubs tickets for the next homestand, would you? The weather should be much better. I’ve got bleachers, I’ve got Club Box, I’ve got all the good seats. Make me an offer. Please?

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs 5-12

bref preview
gameday

Jay RF, Craig 2B, Pujols 1B, Holliday LF, Rasmus CF, Molina C, Descalso 3B, Greene SS, Garcia P.Castro SS, Barney 2B, Byrd CF, Ramirez 3B, Baker RF, Peña 1B, Soriano LF, Castillo C, Coleman P

Cardinals Can He Hit Scrap Factor Can He Field Do We Hate Him Cubs Can He Hit Scrap Factor Can He Field Do We Like Him
Jon Jay No 8 Meh No Starlin Castro Yes 5 Kinda Yes
Allen Craig Kinda 8 Prolly No Darwin Barney Yes 11 Yes Yes
Albert Pujols Not anymore 40 Yes No Marlon Byrd No 9 Yes Meh
Matt Holliday Yes 6 No No Aramis Ramirez Maybe 2 Gah Yes
Colby Rasmus Yes 5 Yes A little Jeff Baker Platoon 4 Eh Yes
Yadier Molina No 9 YES No Carlos Peña No 5 Yes Yes
Daniel Descalso No 8 Sure No Alfonso Soriano Sometimes 1 No Yes
Tyler Greene No 12 Prolly No Wellington Castillo Like a god 8 Yes Yes
Jaime Garcia No No No Casey Coleman Yes 45 Yes Yes

Cubs lose over/under: 65%

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