Author: berselius

Series Preview: Cubs (75-71) at Rockies (55-92)

I’m on mini-vacation to catch this series, so I figure the least I could do was actually write a post for once (dying laughing). The Rockies were eliminated some time ago, obviously, but at least I still get some vaguely relevant Cubs baseball. Since it’s pretty much just the Barves and Mets that the Cubs are chasing now, here’s the current state of the race for the third wild card per fangraphs playoff odds:

  • Mets: 80-66, 56.3% chance to make playoffs
  • Barves: 79-67, 55.8% chance to make playoffs
  • Cubs: 75-71, 1.0% chance to make playoffs

Just for fun, if the Cubs won out, they would end with 91 wins. If they do the win-every-series 66% winning percentage, they’d end up with 86 wins. Oddly enough, in the preseason 86 kind of felt meh but now that my mindset is more in the ‘games over 500’, being 10 games over feels like a TON (dying laughing).

There’s not much to be said about the Rockies this season that wasn’t already said in the 2023 preseason. Their decision to sign Bryant after trading Arenado due to salary demands looks even worse than it did a year ago, and public comments from their ownership still seems to think they have a contending team that just caught a few bad breaks. But hey, at least Coors Field is nice.

Team Leaders

Cubs

  • OBP: Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.241)
  • HR: Happ (23)
  • R+RBI: Happ (163)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (133)
  • SB: Hoerner (28)
  • BSR: PCA (5.2)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.1)
  • SP K/9: Steele (9.21)
  • SP BB/9: Imanaga (1.40)
  • SP FIP: Steele (3.13)
  • RP K/9: Thompson (11.42)
  • RP BB/9: Pearson (0.93)
  • RP FIP: Hodge (2.52)
  • WAR: Happ (3.6)

Rocks

  • OBP: Jacob Stallings (.356)
  • ISO: Michael Toglia (.249)
  • HR: Toglia (23)
  • R+RBI: Brenton Doyle (146)
  • wRC+: Stallings (111)
  • SB: Doyle (27)
  • BSR: Doyle (4.9)
  • Defense: Eziquiel Tovar (13.8)
  • SP K/9: Ryan Feltner (7.96)
  • SP BB/9: Austin Gomber (2.13)
  • SP FIP: Feltner (4.23)
  • RP K/9: Tyler Kinley (10.05)
  • RP BB/9: Angel Chivilli (1.50)
  • RP FIP: Vikton Vodnil (3.83)
  • WAR: Doyle (3.8)

Doyle is a great center fielder, and is probably PCA’s main competition for a GG this year. Aside from having a leg up from playing the full season, he also won it last year.

Who isn’t available

I’m too lazy to look up the rest of the chatbot-generated names on the Rockies roster, so I’ll just note that Kris Bryant has been on the IL since mid August with a back injury. His healthy stints between IL trips this year were 13 games, 11 games, and 13 games. Sad face.

Cubs-wise, Justin Steele threw off a mound earlier this week and could be back before the end of the season. But unless the Cubs kick off a giant winning streak, meh on pushing him. Wesneski is working his way back from a forearm strain and is throwing to hitters in AZ. Julian Merryweather and Jorge Lopez may be back soon as well.

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, and FIP listed for each.

Friday: Javier Assad, RHP (7.59, 3.83, 3.14, 4.46) vs Austin Gomber, LHP (6.39, 2.13, 4.50, 4.79), 7:40 PM CT

Saturday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (6.95, 1.72, 3.57, 3.98) vs Kyle Freeland, LHP (7.13, 2.25, 4.97, 4.27), 7:10 PM CT

Sunday: Cyle Hendricks, RHP (6.11, 2.97, 6.51, 5.21) vs Cal Quantrill (?), RHP (6.72, 3.72, 4.63, 5.04), 2:10 PM CT

I bought nice seats by the Cubs dugout for the Sunday game before knowing that Cyle would likely get the start. 2024 vintage Cyle at Coors might not be the greatest combo to watch, but I’m glad that I’ll get to see what’s likely going to be one of his last few starts in a Cubs uniform. He’ll always be one of my favorites.

BOLO for a bearded fat guy in a 2024 Cubs spring training hat and a Santo jersey on the broadcast. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

Cubs 5, Cardinals 1

OSS: The newly resurgent Cubs win their fifth in a row.

Three up:

  1. Cyle had a magnificent bounce back from his previous, injury-shortened start. He pitched seven innings of shutout ball, flirting with a Maddux for the first half of the game. Extra credit to Kyle since it’s a double-header tomorrow. Going into this game, Cyle had a 2.62 ERA across a whopping 172 innings against the Cardinals, and it’s only going to look better. He’s basically Paul Skenes when he faces them (dying laughing)
  2. Pretty much everyone contributed to the win, with all but Cubs WAR leader Michael Busch getting at least one hit. Balls are falling, line drives are no longer just out of reach of infielders’ gloves, etc. etc.
  3. While many of the slumping Cubs have been turning things around, the one that feels most acute is Dansby Swanson. He had the biggest hit of the game by WPA with his line drive single to drive in the Cubs first run (that didn’t also have an out involved).

Three down:

  1. Positive vibes only, but big bummer for Luke Little, who appeared to have a sproing mid plate appearance in the eighth. It’s been a very up and down season for him but he had really turned things around in the past month. I hadn’t realized that he had a streak of nine scoreless outings going all the way back to June 6. If it’s surgery time I hope they invent a new surgery that replaces a ligament with paracord.

Next up:

Doubleheader tomorrow, Hayden Wesneski and TBD (Assad?) in some order face Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, also in some order, at 1:15 and 7:15 PM CT.

Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers (19-11) at Chicago Cubs (19-13)

It’s our first divisional series, more than a month into the year! Grumble grumble. The Cubs and Beers have both been peppered with injuries but are succeeding despite it – maybe it’s Pat Murphy magic that Counsell inherited? It’s been fun seeing the Brewers-Cubs rivalry ramp up from where it was when I lived in Wisconsin *mumble* years ago, but I don’t know what it would take for it to ever be on the same tier as Cubs-Cardinals.

The Beers are coming off two series against East teams, with a series loss to the Yankees and a win against the Rays. As a team, the Brewers have the second best wRC+ in baseball, while their bullpen is about average. Their starting pitching numbers however are third worst in the league so far, making their hot start even more impressive. The Cubs, in contrast, have an average offense, top ten starting pitching (!) and a bottom five bullpen. That tracks.

Team Leaders

It’s smallish sample size, instead of miniscule sample size, so I’ll switch to current stats here.

Beers

OBP: William Contreras (.420)
ISO: Rhys Hoskins (.228)
HR: Willy Adames/Hoskins (6)
R+RBI: Contreras (53)
wRC+: Contreras (172)
BSR: Brice Turang (3.0)
Def: Adames (4.1)
SP K/9: Peralta (12.03)
SP K/9: Peralta (2.41)
SP ERA: Bryse Wilson (1.93)
SP FIP: Peralta (3.17)
RP K/9: Bryan Hudson (9.87)
RP BB/9: Payamps (1.69)
RP ERA: Bryan Hudson (0.52)
RP FIP: Payamps (2.29)
WAR: Adames (1.7)

Cubs

OBP: Tauchman (.422)
ISO: Busch (.223)
HR: Busch (6)
R+RBI: Morel (35)
wRC+: Tauchman (168)
BSR: Morel (0.9)
Def: Amaya (2.5)
SP K/9: Wicks (10.96)
SP BB/9: Imanaga (1.04)
SP ERA: Imanaga (0.78)
SP FIP: Imanaga (2.21)
RP K/9: Almonte (12.08)
RP BB/9: Thompson (2.53)
RP ERA: Leiter (0.68)
RP FIP: Thompson (1.36)
WAR: Imanaga (1.2)

It’s a bummer that Imanaga won’t face the Beers this weekend.

Who isn’t available?

Justin Steele just made a rehab start at Iowa, and could be back in the rotation as soon as next week. Cyle had a good rehab start in Iowa, throwing five scoreless with seven strikeouts. No timetable on Wicks yet, he’s probably a few weeks out and the ghost of potential TJ continues to lurk over his shoulder. Or elbow, I guess. Bellinger is ramping up baseball activites and could be back soonish. Seiya started light baseball activites a week or so ago, but I haven’t heard anything lately about a timetable. Reinforcements are coming, I hope.

For the Brewers, the biggest name injuries are to SP Wade Miley, who is going under the knife for TJ next week, and Christian Yelich, who has been out for the past few weeks with a back strain. Bob Minocqua is out all season after shoulder surgery last fall. Closer Devin Williams had a stress fracture in his back (ouch) in spring training, and won’t be back for another month or so at minimum. Speaking of yikes Jakob Junis was already on the DL with a shoulder injury, and was stretchered off the field after being hit by a ball during batting practice last week. In less dire injury news, Gary Sanchez is day to day with hamstring tightness.

Pitching Matchups

K/9, BB/9, ERA, projected ERA listed for each

Friday: Joe Ross, RHP (8.28, 4.32, 5.40, 4.66) vs Hayden Wesneski, RHP (5.23, 0.87, 0.87, 4.47), 1:20 PM CT

Saturday: Tobias Myers, RHP (8.10, 0.90, 4.50, 4.75) vs Jameson Taillon, RHP (4.50, 1.50, 1.50, 4.49), 1:20 PM CT

Sunday: Freddy Peralta, RHP (12.03, 2.41, 3.21, 3.82) vs Javier Assad, RHP (7.59, 2.53, 1.97, 4.20), 1:20 PM CT

Cubs 3, Mets 1

OSS: Cubs break up a no-hitter, Mets be Metsing

Three up

  1. After the Cubs broke up a no hitter in the eighth off of Mets starter Luis Severino, Christopher Morel hit a no-doubt, two run homer to put the Cubs ahead 3-1. Nor surprisingly, he led the team in WPA on the day.
  2. The other big star of the day was Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon, who gave up just 4 hits, including a solo home run to Nimmo to lead off the game. Given what a mess the staff has been, having Taillon pitch into the 8th was great to see.
  3. Dansby Swanson got the first hit of the game, a solid single to center to break up the no-hit bid. This was amid a rally that led to the Cubs tying the game.

Three down

  1. This Hector Neris as closer situation continues to be garbage. I like Leiter as the matchup fireman, but man I could see just about anyone else there. It’s too bad Wicks went down, I’ve been beating the drum for Ben Brown once the rotation is mostly back.
  2. Wins are good, but it would also be good to get some hits in the first 2/3 of the game (dying laughing). Enough said.
  3. This is the second time in the past few games where Nick Madrigal (?!) has come in as a pinch hitter. I guess at least in this case the Cubs could really use a weak grounder to tie the game.

Next up

Game two of the four game series kicks off at 6:10 CT, with Javier Assad facing Sean Manea.

Cubs 5, Dbacks 3 and Series Preview: Miami Marlins (4-15) at Chicago Cubs (11-7)

Combined post, cuz we need a new one

OSS: Hayden Wesneski gives the pen a shot in the arm

Three up:

  1. With a completely gassed bullpen, the Cubs called up Hayden Wesneski and something called a Colton Brewer from Iowa. With starter Jordan Wicks running out of gas in the fifth inning and the right-handed heart of the Dbacks order coming up, Wesneski came in and retired Gurriel and Walker. He went on to post a final line of 4 IP, 0 runs, just what the team and the exhausted bullpen needed.
  2. Cody Bellinger had the biggest hit of the day for the Cubs with a go-ahead homer in the sixth inning. Belli has struggled to start the season, hopefully we see him heat up as the Cubs head back home against some struggling teams.
  3. Michael Busch’s homer streak may have ended, but he managed to elicit rare praise from me by dropping a perfect bunt against the shift for a single in his first PA. #Neverbunt, except I guess in that situation.

Three down:

  1. Hicks got the facepalms going early by giving up a leadoff HR and a HBP in his first two batters, but then settled down for the next few innings. But, it was yet another start of less than five innings by a Cubs pitcher. Maybe if Wesneski wasn’t fresh, he’d have stayed in longer, and I’ve been the first one on the soapbox for guys being left in an inning too long. But it still stinks. I’m not sure how the suggestion for limiting the number of pitchers on the roster that I’ve seen floating around will keep starters in longer. Maybe if there’s a linked DH to the starter. It’s not like Wicks is a guy who is lighting up the radar gun at risk to his UCL either (dying laughing).
  2. Going back to earlier in the series, I thought those Dbacks city connects were hideous, and look like they had been dipped in cat piss. They’re really in the avant garde of awful uniform designs over the years.
  3. Cyle looks totally cooked – the Cubs are going to have a decision to make when Taillon comes up for this series.

Next up: See below

The Cubs head into another series with a team that gave them a bunch of crushing losses last season. The Marlins are struggling, to say the least. Pretty much their entire rotation is injured, and it sounds like their manager asked the team to make him a lame duck this year since he was hired by the previous regime. They started the year 0-9, and are coming off back to back series losses at home. Let’s see if that ol Counsell Magic Manager Dust will stop the Cubs from playing down to the competition.

Team Leaders

Based on projected numbers

Fishes

  • OBP: Luis Arraez (.369)
  • ISO: Jake 🍔 (/231)
  • HR: 🍔 (33)
  • R+RBI: 🍔 (169)
  • wRC+: Arraez (113)
  • BSR: Jazz Chisolm (1.2)
  • Defense: Christian Bethencourt (9.1)
  • SP K/9: AJ Puk (11.79)
  • SP BB/9: Braxton Garrett (2.57)
  • SP FIP: Puk (3.57)
  • RP K/9: Tanner Scott (12.55)
  • RP BB/9: Bryan Hoeing (2.58)
  • RP FIP: Scott (3.32)
  • WAR: Chisolm/Luzardo (3.1)

Cubs

  • OBP: Seiya (.352)
  • ISO: Morel (.224)
  • HR: Morel (25)
  • R+RBI: Belli (178)
  • wRC+: Seiya (124)
  • BSR: Hoerner (2.6)
  • Defense: Swanson (18.0)
  • SP K/9: Shota (9.59)
  • SP BB/9: Cyle (2.17)
  • SP FIP: Shota (3.55)
  • RP K/9: Merryweather (11.90)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (2.41)
  • RP FIP: Merryweather (3.84)
  • WAR: Swanson (4.4)

Who’s not available?

Seiya Suzuki hit the IL after the last series and will probably be on the shelf a month, ugh. Justin Steele is working his way back, and Taillon will be back for this series. Julian Merryweather was moved to the 60-day IL.

It’s probably better to ask who *isn’t* injured for the Marlins. Catcher Christian Bethencourt and top hitter Jake Burger hit the IL earlier this week. SP Braxton Garrett has been on the IL with a shoulder impingement since Spring Training, and reported a ‘dead arm’ in a minor league bullpen session last week. SPs Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara are out for the year with TJS. They also demoted SP Max Mayer, who’s been their only starter with any success this year, because Reasons. AJ Puk had his last start pushed back due to an illness going around the clubhouse.

Pitching Matchups

Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each

Thursday: AJ Puk, LHP (11.25, 3.27, 4.25) vs Jameson Taillon, RHP (7.83, 2.44, 4.41), 6:40 PM CT

Friday: Jesus Luzardo, LHP (10.16, 3.25, 4.16) vs Shota Imanaga, LHP (9.66, 2.54, 3.48), 1:20 PM CT

Saturday: Edward Cabrera, RHP (9.52, 4.15, 4.34) vs Javier Assad, RHP (7.48, 3.50, 4.33), 1:20 PM CT

Sunday: Ryan Weathers, RHP (7.55, 3.68, 4.76) vs No Longer Cyle Hendricks, RHP (6.86, 2.29, 4.85), 1:20 PM CT

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (7-5) at Seattle Mariners (5-8)

The Cubs west coast trip continues with a trip to Seattle. The Mariners are yet another team that’s in the mix for a playoff spot this year, which says less about the Cubs relative scheduling than it does about the relative strength of the league, where there are only four, maybe five truly awful teams, and none of them are in the NL Central.

The Mariners have yet to win a series this year, and are coming off a 2-4 great lakes road trip to MIL and TOR. Hopefully the Cubs bring a little of that Lake Michigan Devil Magic along with them to the Northwest. Their pitching comes in at about league average, but their offense has struggled, posting a .207/.276/.344 line. Only the A’s and Marlins trail them in position player fWAR on the season.

In Cubs transaction news, it is indeed Keegan Thompson who is coming up for Cuas, who was optioned to Iowa earlier today. I’d sure love to see 2022 Keegan again, but I guess we’ll have to take a wait and see approach.

Team Leaders

Based on projected numbers

Mariners

  • OBP: JP Crawford (.348)
  • ISO: Big Dumper (.227)
  • HR: Julio (32)
  • R+RBI: Julio (204)
  • wRC+: Julio (128)
  • BSR: Julio (1.8)
  • Defense: Dumper (10.4)
  • SP K/9: Luis Castillo (no not that one) (9.55)
  • SP BB/9: George Kirby (1.45)
  • SP FIP: Castillo (3.27)
  • RP K/9: Andres Muñoz (13.65)
  • RP BB/9: Gabe Speier (2.05)
  • RP FIP: Muñoz (2.88)
  • WAR: Julio (5.4)

Cubs

  • OBP: Seiya (.352)
  • ISO: Morel (.224)
  • HR: Morel (25)
  • R+RBI: Belli (178)
  • wRC+: Seiya (124)
  • BSR: Hoerner (2.6)
  • Defense: Swanson (18.0)
  • SP K/9: Shota (9.59)
  • SP BB/9: Cyle (2.17)
  • SP FIP: Shota (3.55)
  • RP K/9: Merryweather (11.90)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (2.41)
  • RP FIP: Merryweather (3.84)
  • WAR: Swanson (4.4)

Who isn’t available?

Jameson Taillon is making his way back from his spring training injury, and will likely be making a start in Iowa soon. He should be back by the end of the month, hopefully. Justin Steele is throwing off of flat ground and will likely be back next month. Key bullpen piece Julian Merryweather is on the 15 day IL with a rib stress fracture, which seems no fun. No TBD yet, hopefully it’s not as bad as the weird rib cartilage thing that Stroman had last year. Patrick Wisdom is coming back from his preseason back strain and is blowing up Iowa, and could be back very soon.

For the moules marineres, RP Matt Brash is on the IL with an elbow injury, but he seems to be one of the few pitchers of late who was judged to not need surgery. The Mariners have a bunch of other guys whose names aren’t ringing bells so I’m going to go YOLO and assume none of them are super impactful (dying laughing).

Pitching Matchups

Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each

Friday: Jordan Wicks, LHP (7.95, 3.22, 4.34) vs Bryce Miller, RHP (7.98, 2.21, 3.97), 8:40 PM CT (Apple TV+)

A misclick while looking up this info makes me hope that we get a Jordan Wicks/Jordan Hicks matchup when the Cubs eventually face off with the Giants.

Miller is coming off of seven shutout innings of the Brewers offense. He has an A+ fastball.

Saturday: Shota Imanaga, LHP (9.74, 2.52, 3.50) vs Emerson Hancock, RHP (6.89, 3.22, 4.66), 8:40 PM CT

Shota has been nails so far, and I look forward to seeing him pitch deeper into a start. This will be his first one away from a chilly Wrigley Field.

Hancock is a command guy, and he hasn’t shown much of it in his first two starts. He gave up 11 runs in 8.2 innings against the Beers and Statuary.

Sunday: Javier Assad?, RHP (7.40, 3.55, 4.34) vs Luis Castillo, RHP (9.52, 2.61, 3.34), 3:10 PM CT

If the Cubs stick to the same order this will probably be Assad’s start, but they haven’t announced anything yet. Assad was roughed up late in his last start as Counsell tried to extend him and save his gassed bullpen, but it eventually led to a disaster of an inning in San Diego.

We know Castillo (not that one!) from his time with the Reds, and with Cole on the shelf he has a good chance of going neck and neck with fellow ex-NL-Central-er Corbin Burnes for the AL CYA.

Cubs 5, Padres 1

OSS: The Cubs bullpen will never blow a lead again confirmed

Three up:

  1. Christopher Morel had the big hit of the game, a grand slam that chased Padres starter Joe Musgrove in the fifth. Oddly enough Yan Gomes’s solo shot to open up the scoring earlier in the inning was actually the biggest play of the day by WPA (dying laughing). Overall Morel went 2-3 with a walk and four RsBI
  2. Ben Brown had his first officially official MLB start and went 4.2 shutout innings, striking out five and walking one. He was on a pretty strict pitch count, so it was a bummer to see him pulled as he edged past 75 pitches. But I guess it’s hard to complain given all the pitching news around baseball of late.
  3. Unlike last night, the bullpen shut the door on this one, going 4.1 innings, giving up one run and one walk while striking out six.

Three down:

  1. Not too much to complain about here. The middle infield went oh-fer at the plate but made several great plays in the field. Dansby had the Cubs most negative play on the day by WPA, popping out with runners on first and second and no outs in the second with the score 0-0.
  2. Even with Smyly/Leiter/Almonte good to go it was a little surprising that the Cubs did not make a roster move going into this game.
  3. Residual complaints about last night’s blown lead linger amongst the fanbase, though it seemed like the team took it in stride. Cult of Craig Counsell etc etc

Next up

The Cubs go for the series win at 5:40 PM CT. Cyle takes on former Cubs prospect Dylan Cease, he of the trade I’ll defend to my dying breath (dying laughing).

Cubs 9 Dodgers 7

OSS: Playoff baseball, in April?

Three up:

  1. After a shaky start in the first inning, the Cubs defense came up HUGE today, with multiple great plays by Nick Madrigal, Nico Hoerner, and Michael Busch on plays that would have been hits against most teams. Both Nico’s stop in the fourth inning and Busch’s game ending snag occurred with runners on second and third and would easily have scored two runs if they got through.
  2. It’s hard to pick out one particular player since the Cubs really spread the offense around today, but Seiya Suzuki was the Cubs leader in WPA on the day, mostly thanks to a two run double in the second inning that capped off the Cubs rally against Dodgers starter Bobby Miller. Miller looked unstoppable in the first inning, but the Cubs just ground him down over the course of the second with what felt like a half a dozen ten pitch PAs.
  3. Props to the crowd today, the atmosphere felt amazing on the broadcast. It may have been cold but it was the first non-shitty day of the homestand and everyone was feeling the good vibes. I don’t know if there’s an April game where I even came close to hanging on every pitch (dying laughing)

Three down:

  1. It was another rough start for Cyle, who had a tough time locating his pitches against a team more than capable of making him pay. Props to the offense for picking him up.
  2. Drew Smyly was nails coming on in relief but I definitely raised my eyebrow to see him coming out in the seventh. I felt the same about Ben Brown on Wednesday too. Counsell obviously trusts his guys though and I’m still giving him a longer benefit of the doubt than I probably will by August, heh.
  3. The Mushroom Man was the only Cub that didn’t reach base today, going 0-4, though at least with no strikeouts.

Next up:

Jordan Wicks takes on Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 3 PM CT, should be another exciting one!

Now go root for Iowa and Caitlin Clark. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

Series Preview: Colorado Rockies (1-3) at Chicago Cubs (1-2)

The Rockies were not a team that prognosticators had particularly high hopes for, but the Rockies opening series managed to look skyward to that already low bar. On Thursday, the Dbacks batted around twice vs Opening Day Starter Kyle Freeland, scoring 14 runs in a single inning. The Cubs are surely hoping to get their whacks in between series against the Rangers and Dodgers, though it would certainly be Cubs-like to play down to the level of the competition. Let’s hope Craig Counsell can do the thing and roll ’em.

Team Leaders

Using projected numbers

Rockies

  • OBP: Nolan Jones (.368)
  • ISO: Jones (.210)
  • HR: Jones (25)
  • R+RBI: Jones (182)
  • wRC+: Jones (116)
  • BSR: Brenton Doyle (1.3)
  • Defense: Ezequiel Tovar (17.0)
  • SP K/9: Ryan Feltner (8.06)
  • SP BB/9: Austin Gomber (2.81)
  • SP FIP: Feltner (4.75)
  • RP K/9: Evan Justice (10.29)
  • RP BB/9: Anthony Molina (2.69)
  • RP FIP: Justin Lawrence (4.25)
  • WAR: Jones (3.5)

Cubs

  • OBP: Seiya (.352)
  • ISO: Morel (.224)
  • HR: Morel (25)
  • R+RBI: Belli (178)
  • wRC+: Seiya (124)
  • BSR: Hoerner (2.6)
  • Defense: Swanson (18.0)
  • SP K/9: Shota (9.59)
  • SP BB/9: Cyle (2.17)
  • SP FIP: Shota (3.55)
  • RP K/9: Merryweather (11.90)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (2.41)
  • RP FIP: Merryweather (3.84)
  • WAR: Swanson (4.4)

Who isn’t available?

For the Cubs, Justin Steele is likely to miss all of April with the hamstring strain he suffered on opening day. Jameson Taillon is on the 15-day DL and will probably need a rehab start or two in early April. Caleb Killian is out until at least the ASB with the shoulder injury he suffered in ST. Patrick Wisdom is on the IL with a back injury and continues his un-DFAed streak until at least mid April.

For the Rockies, Daniel Bard, who can never catch a break, is on the IL with a torn meniscus suffered in ST. German Marquez is on the 60-day, recovering from TJ surgery from last year.

Pitching Matchups

Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each

Monday: Dakota Hudson, RHP (5.49, 3.49, 5.12) vs Shota Imanaga, LHP (9.59, 2.63, 3.55), 1:20 PM CT

Tuesday: Kyle Freeland, LHP (5.70, 2.69, 5.24) vs Javier Assad, RHP (7.17, 3.54, 4.33), 6:40 PM CT

Wednesday: Cal Quantrill, RHP (5.85, 2.96, 4.93) vs Ben Brown?, RHP (9.03, 3.86, 4.23), 6:40 PM CT

Probably a bullpen-ish day on Wednesday.

Cubs 9, Rangers 5

OSS: Cubs offense picks up Cubs defense in the late innings

Three up:

  1. Ian Happ had a big day, collecting 4 hits and drawing a bases-loaded go-ahead walk in the top of the ninth. He also doubled to knock in a pair of runs as part of the Cubs rally vs Lord Jon.
  2. The bullpen had a great day, putting up a combined line of 5 IP, 3 H, 1BB, 7 SO, and zero runs.
  3. The Mushroom Man got things rolling with a three run homer in the first in what was a mixed bag of a day overall.

Three down:

  1. The defense had a rough time today, committing two official errors but generally not looking as crisp as usual. We know the story with Morel at 3b, he’s learning, but there was another uncharacteristic error from Dansby Swanson. All of the Rangers runs scored after said errors.
  2. Jordan Wicks toughed it out following the defensive miscues, but the Rangers missed back to back homers by a matter of inches.
  3. Fangraphs gamelog is missing a few PAs, but the lowest WPA on the day was Mastrobuoni’s pinch hit, bases loaded groundout in the ninth. I guess Counsell was going for platoon things but I would have been fine with Amaya.

Next up:

The Cubs open at home vs the Rockies, assuming the weather cooperates. New Cub Shōta Imanaga takes on ex-Cardinal Dakota Hudson at 1:20 CT on Monday.