The Cubs finally broke the seal and made a major league transaction, signing Japanese lefty starting pitcher Shota Imanaga. The news broke earlier this week, but the details of the Rube Goldberg machine of a contract didn’t take shape until late this evening. Here’s the rundown, with all the conditionals
Nominal contract:
If no one does anything, Shota Imanaga is under contract for 4 years and $53 million.
After year 2:
The Cubs can decide to add a fifth year to the contract, for an extra $27 million. If they do not choose to do this, Imanaga can opt to give up the rest of the contract and become a free agent. Or he can stick around on the original deal.
After year 3:
If neither side opts to do anything after year 2, the same deal is on the table. 1/27 extension, free agency, or Imanaga remains.
Nothing has been reported as far as the year-by-year breakdowns that I can see, so basically it sounds like it can be any of (spitballing on the numbers here)
- 2/23
- 3/38
- 4/53
- 5/80
This deal seems like a steal for the Cubs – even if it’s a complete bust, 4/53 is more than eat-able for this team. And if Imanaga looks good, they basically have the first right of refusal to keep him around instead of him just opting out after 2 years, which is something I more or less expect in most of the big FA deals that Boras is likely pushing.
How good is Imanaga?
He’s kind of hard to find a comp for, as most left handed starters tend to follow the Randy Johnson mold (i.e., super tall), while Imanaga is “only” 5′ 10″. His fastball only gets up to 92 or so (as a starter), and given that he’s 30 years old there’s not much hope of that number ticking up. It does reportedly have a great spin rate, so I guess it’s not surprising that the Cubs targeted him (not that spin rate is really much of an inefficiency these days…) His slider is probably his best pitch but like other big name Japanese pitchers that have come to MLB he mixes in a lot of stuff, including a splitter that’s his main strikeout pitch. With his height and a relatively low release point, his pitches could look a lot different than what most batters see in MLB which might also provide a little extra juice to his stuff.
He’s been a decent strikeout guy but his calling card is his incredible command – he only walked only 1.4 batters per nine innings in NPB last year, a personal best, and his career walk numbers are Cyle-esque. When batters do make contact, he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, which could be….interesting…on certain days at Wrigley Field. That makes me think of former Cub Ted Lilly, who certainly wasn’t a giant by MLB lefty standards either (6 feet). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar distribution of runs by Imanaga – in a month he’ll have five starts where he gives up one run or less and one where he gives up eight in two innings. In overall numbers that doesn’t look as great but might give the team a better chance at winning more games.
Dammit, now that I’ve thought of Lilly I can’t get the comp out of my head. Player comps are the wooooorst. Still, Lilly gave the Cubs 14.5 WAR over three and a half seasons, and I’m sure the Cubs would be thrilled with the same for Imanaga.
As far as any downsides go, Imanaga is a little older than most high profile free agents, though he does not have much of an injury history to speak of. Japanese pitchers don’t pitch quite as many innings as MLB pitchers do. Or at least, as much as they used to. He’s averaged around 150 innings per non-Covid year.
All in all this seems like a pretty great signing, and hopefully not the last one as this team still has glaring needs at corner infield and CF.
UPDATE 1/17:
The AP has the fine print on the structuring of the Imanaga deal, sounds like the various permutations are
Year 1: 10m
Year 2: 13m
Year 3, if no one exercises an option: 15m
Year 3, if Cubs exercise option after year 2: 20m
Year 4, if no options: 15m
Year 4, if Cubs exercise option after year 2: 20m
Year 4, if Cubs exercise option after year 3: 24m
Year 5, if Cubs exercise option after year 2: 17m
Year 5, if Cubs exercise option after year 3: 18m
So possible outcomes
2/23, if Cubs don’t extend and Imanaga opts out after year 2
3/38 if no extension the second time and Imanaga opts out after year 3
4/53 if no one picks any options (seems unlikely)
5/80, if Cubs pick up option/extension after year 2 or 3