Cubs 4, Giants 0

OSS: They’re only Mostly Dead

Three up:

  1. Kyle Hendricks stepped up and had his best outing on the season, taking a no hitter deep into the eighth inning. Stroman’s complete game shutout of the Rays was the best Cubs outing of the year but this is definitely a close second. I thought it would take a while longer for Hendricks to get back in a groove, let a lone that we might see a vintage Cyle outing anytime soon (or at all).
  2. Cubs youngsters Chris Morel and Matt Mervis hit badly needed homers. Both had been slumping of late (along with everyone else), but now that the team has dug itself a big enough hole it’s looking like the Cubs are giving a bigger weight letting them get reps. Morel also added a clutch two run single – hitting with RISP, who knew it was possible.
  3. Mike Tauchman made an incredible catch in the third inning to rob an easy triple from the shambling remains of Brandon Crawford. He’s no Bellinger but he’s the a cromulent fourth outfielder.

Three Eight down

The Cubs just need to add another eight games or so on the end of this winning streak to get back in this thing :/

Next up: The Cubs go for for the sweep at 3:05 PM CT. Hayden Wesneski starts against…someone. The Giants website lists Brebbia as the starter…but he was the opener today so who knows*.

*the Shadow knows!

Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds (21-29) at Chicago Cubs (22-27)

One reason that I like to write these is that it reminds me on a weeklyish basis what the Cubs record is (dying laughing). The Cubs still aren’t Five Back™ yet but there’s a lil cluster with the Reds and Cardinals for the division basement, which is not fun. Hopefully things get right in this series. The Reds offense has been struggling – their 87 wrC+ is the second worst in the NL, behind only, surprisingly, the Rockies (?!). Their pitching staff has a collective 5.00 ERA, but they’ve had some bad luck with home runs. Then again, they play half their games at GABP so maybe it’s not that surprising.

Team Leaders

Switching to actual numbers on the year!

Erds

  • OBP: Jonathan India (.379)
  • ISO: Luke Maile (.216)
  • HR: Spencer Steer (6)
  • R+RBI: Steer (47)
  • wRC+: T.J. Friedl (127)
  • BSR: Friedl (2.4)
  • Defense: Friedl (2.0)
  • SP K/9: Hunter Greene (12.42)
  • SP BB/9: Luke Weaver (2.13)
  • SP FIP: Greene (3.98)
  • RP K/9: Alexis Diaz (16.88)
  • RP BB/9: Alex Young (1.33)
  • RP FIP: Diaz (1.30)
  • WAR: Friedl (1.4)

Cubs

  • OBP: Happ (.408)
  • ISO: Morel (.526)
  • HR: Wisdom (12)
  • R+RBI: Belli (49)
  • wRC+: Morel (223)
  • BSR: Hoerner (3.2)
  • Defense: Swanson (5.8)
  • SP K/9: Taillon (8.11)
  • SP BB/9: Smyly (1.95)
  • SP FIP: Steele (2.95)
  • RP K/9: Leiter (13.72)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (1.52)
  • RP FIP: Leiter (2.29)
  • WAR: Swanson (1.9)

Who isn’t available?

Nick Burdi got his callup and hit the IL with an appendectomy less than a week later. I can confirm from personal experience that it can take a while to bounce back from it. No clue if Burdi will follow my example and marry the surgeon’s daughter in a decade or so. Brad Boxberger is out indefinitely with the dreaded forearm strain diagnosis. A MRI earlier this week showed no structural damage so it looks like they can just wait it out for now. There’s been no recent news on Belli, who hit the IL 10 days ago with a knee injury, though last I heard was that it was not expected to be a just-the-minimum stint. Codi Heuer has looked solid in his rehab from TJS and could be back on the roster in a week or two.

The Reds have a ton of guys on the injury report. Obviously the biggest hole is Joey Votto, who is on the 60-day IL following shoulder surgery last year. He’s been taking live BP with the AAA team but hasn’t seen any game action yet. OF Wil Myers has been out of the lineup with some undisclosed minor injury that hasn’t sent him to the DL. SP Connor Overton, who the Cubs saw earlier this year, has seen his window to pitch again moved to next season following TJS. SP Nick Lodolo is shut down indefinitely with a flexor issue and a stress reaction in his tibia. It’s almost like the human body is not designed to throw baseballs hard 🙁

Pitching Matchups, Game Times

2023 K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP listed for all starters

Friday: Hunter Greene, RHP (12.42, 3.60, 4.68, 3.98) vs Justin Steele, LHP (7.78, 2.35, 2.20, 2.95), 1:20 PM CT

Saturday: Brandon Williamson*, LHP (9.00, 4.95, 4.95, 5.18) vs Jameson Taillon, RHP (9.11, 3.38, 8.10, 4.93), 6:15 PM CT (Fox)

*projected numbers listed for Williamson, who is a more recent callup

Sunday: Graham Ashcraft, RHP (6.92, 3.54, 5.57, 4.50) vs Drew Smyly, RHP (8.30, 1.95, 2.93, 3.60), 1:20 PM CT

Cubs 4, Mets 2

OSS: Maybe the Cubs can win on Barnhart days after all?

Three up:

  1. Marcus Stroman kept the Mets off balance for most of the night, and probably could have gone the distance given his pitch count. Aside from one mistake to Mets nine-hitter Francisco Alvarez that was deposited over the CF fence, Stro was effective. His line on the day was 8 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K, and he has improved to a 2.95 ERA for the season. He also brings the fun vibes that this team has been missing (even though I guess he was also technically bringing them last year, haha).
  2. The Cubs biggest play of the day by WPA was Dansby Swanson’s one-out RBI double in the third inning, which put the Cubs on the board for the first time. Swanson’s back of the baseball card numbers have only been so-so this year but he’s been doing all of the little things well on top of his stellar defense. his .265/.367/.405 line is good for a 117 wRC+, and he is actually right on pace to match his 6.4 fWAR season last year.
  3. Nico Hoerner added some insurance with a solo shot in the sixth to put the Cubs up 4-2. It was his first home run in almost exactly a month. Nico’s not really a HR-focused guy based on where he’s hitting in the lineup, but it’s still nice to see him go yard every once in a while.

Three down:

  1. Not much to complain about today, aside from maybe the one day early getaway day lineup. At least for AC’s sake, Nick Madrigal did not make an appearance

Next up:

The Cubs go for the Conan at 6:40 on Thursday. Carlos Carrasco faces the season debut of Cyle Hendricks.

Cubs 7, Mets 2

OSS: Cubs bats wake up against the flailing (?) Mets

Three up:

  1. Mash Mervis had the Cubs biggest hit of the day, hitting a two run homer in the second inning that brought the Cubs early lead up to 4-0. In addition, he added an RBI single and a walk in his next two PAs. Not a bad output from the ninth spot in the lineup tonight.
  2. Jeremiah Estrada came on in relief in the sixth inning with no outs, the bases clogged, and MLB HR champ Pete Alonso at the plate. Per fg, with a merely average hitter this was a 2+ expected runs situation for the Mets, surely even higher leverage with Alonso at the plate. He got the next three batters out, allowing only a RBI groundout to Alonso. You unironically love to see it.
  3. Lest we forget, the Mushroom Man homered in his fifth straight game. Despite his hot hitting in the minors I was still somewhat skeptical about his callup to the bigs, but he shut me right up. Morel now has a .367/.404/.980(!!!!) slash line on the year, good for a .565 wOBA and 265 wRC+, and has nine homers in just 12 games.

Three down:

  1. Julian Merryweather struck out two and gave up two singles and wasn’t able to finish his inning. I don’t care what other Cubs writers think of his stuff, I feel the same way about him as AC does about Nick Madrigal (dying laughing). Assuming he even exists, and isn’t some elaborate LLM hoax being played on all of us.
  2. P-Wizzy must be feeling the heat from Morel gunning for his team HR lead, as he wore the golden sombrero today with 0-4, 4 K.
  3. I’m irritated that I get a shred of enjoyment from Mets games (aside from the enjoyment of watching them lose), because every time Jeff McNeil comes to bat or makes a play, all I can think of is “WE DEMAND MCNEAL” from Futurama.

Next up:

Berselius offseason fave Kodai Senga takes on Marcus Stroman at 6:40 PM CT.

Series Preview: St. Louis Tire Fire (11-24) at Chicago Cubs (17-17)

I don’t even know what else there is to say about the dumpster fire in Cardinals-land. Will Oliver Marmol have a job by the end of the month? By the end of this series? The ‘play the game the right way’ nonsense with Tyler O’Neill was bad enough vibes, but then seeing the same pattern continue with this bananas Contreras quasi-benching is just ridiculous. Mike Matheny and TLR wouldn’t be doing this in a fever dream (dying laughing). Which is to say, I am so here for it.

Despite some of the comments from the offseason re the rivalry, I feel pretty bad for Contreras here. This Cardinals pitching staff sucks ass. When your rotation is screwed going into the season because 74 year old Adam Wainwright goes down, the finger should be pointing elsewhere. Willie’s defensive numbers behind the plate are right in line with where he’s been in the past – we can’t qualify the game calling stuff but even Yadi couldn’t cover up that big pile of shit. Contreras has more than done his part, skipping the WBC to get extra time with the pitchers and doing everything they’ve asked. He’s reached out to Yadi for help*. And even then, the PitchCom goes both ways. If the Cardinals pitchers are so immersed in whatever nonsense system they use, they can just call their own games. I don’t think the pitch clock precludes calling games from the dugout either.

*third-hand at this point, but Yadi basically told Contreras that he’s doing fine and the pitchers just aren’t executing. Then Marmol comes out with the following quote: “The reality is, it’s more than he’s ever had to do. Nothing against the way he’s done it, but it’s very different & it’s a lot of work.” I’m sure players love when your manager drops a quote that says you’re a lazy moron, and only feeds the…biases…of Cardinals fans. Maybe they can bring in Tim Tebow to catch?

Anyway, #FreeWillie, and enjoy the circus I guess. My joke about Skip Schumacher bringing the devil magic to Miami instead may actually have some legs.

Team Leaders

Switching to actual numbers on the year!

Urinals

  • OBP: Lars Nootbaar (.442)
  • ISO: Nolan Gorman (.263)
  • HR: Gorman (7)
  • R+RBI: Goldschmidt/Gorman (34)
  • wRC+: Paul DeJong (165)
  • BSR: Brendan Donovan (1.1)
  • Defense: Nolan Arenado (2.4)
  • SP K/9: Jack Flaherty (9.44)
  • SP BB/9: Jordan Montgomery (1.98)
  • SP FIP: Montgomery (2.87)
  • RP K/9: Jordan Hicks (15.23)
  • RP BB/9: Chris Stratton (0.90)
  • RP FIP: Stratton (2.41)
  • WAR: Goldy (1.4)

Cubs

  • OBP: Happ (.431)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.358)
  • HR: Wisdom (11)
  • R+RBI: Belli (45)
  • wRC+: Happ (150)
  • BSR: Hoerner (2.5)
  • Defense: Swanson (3.5)
  • SP K/9: Taillon (10.59)
  • SP BB/9: Smyly (2.11)
  • SP FIP: Taillon (2.48)
  • RP K/9: Leiter (14.79)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (1.72)
  • RP FIP: Alzolay (2.47)
  • WAR: Belli (1.5)

Who isn’t available?

Cyle is still rehabbing his shoulder injury, and probably won’t be back for a few weeks. He swing by Chicago to get some coaching from the big league staff and will have at least one more start. Yan Gomes is on the concussion IL, but was able to take BP over the weekend which is a great sign. Brandon Hughes is back on the IL with a knee injury, but it sounds like he’ll rejoin the team without a rehab assignment once it’s up. RP Codi Heuer made his first rehab appearance following Tommy John last year, and looked great, hitting 99 on the gun. If all goes well he’ll be a flamethrowing reinforcement in a month or so.

For the Cardinals, aside from the self-inflicted wounds above, OG Scapegoat Tyler O’Neill is on the IL with a back strain. Willie is day to day with an ankle injury.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP listed for all starters

Monday: Miles Mikolas, RHP (8.20, 2.17, 5.79, 4.94) vs Marcus Stroman, RHP (8.27, 3.48, 2.18, 3.70), 6:40 PM CT

Tuesday: Jack Flaherty, RHP (9.44, 5.77, 6.29, 5.43) vs Jameson Taillon, RHP (10.59, 2.12, 5.29, 2.48), 6:40 PM CT

Woden’s day: Jordan Montgomery, LHP (8.34, 1.98, 3.29, 2.87) vs Justin Steele, LHP (7.48, 2.28, 1.45, 3.20) 6:40 PM CT

Series Preview Take 2: Miami Marlins (16-16) vs Chicago Cubs (15-16)

Well, that was a road trip to forget. Going 1-6 with five one-run losses is not what you want. Still, I’m gonna be the boring guy and say I’m still not too needle-movey on my opinion of the team. Sometimes you flip a coin and it comes up tails a bunch of times in a row.

Yes, the team is better with Mervis playing first base/DH instead of Hosmer. Who knows what the counter-factual would be if he were up. Baseball is just weird and annoying like this sometimes. That said, the bunt game was dumb af. I’ve been kind of meh on the Hosmer situation, but now it’s time. It looks like the Cubs agree, though its unclear as of writing this who is being bumped when Mervis is actually added to the roster. When Hosmer was hitting even crappier than expected in mid-April, I understood if didn’t necessarily agree with the ‘it’s only two weeks, the Cubs don’t want to look bad to other FAs for cutting bait so fast’ argument. As arbitrary as it is, the calendar turning and the bunt spotlight probably gives them enough cover now. I’m looking forward to seeing Mervis and hope he succeeds. It won’t take much to outhit Hosmer.

I’ll mostly repeat what I said about the Marlins in the front half of this LJS Double Down series (dying laughing). The Marlins win projections are about in line with the Cubs at this point in the season, so we should see some relatively evenly matched games. Their offense as a whole has gotten off to a slow start, posting a .244/.301/.384 slash line and a 90 wrC+ going into the first series, and their pitching staff posted a dead-on 4.50 ERA, so I guess expect a run every other inning. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

In addition to past…history…the Cubs have with the Marlins, I was surprised to find that old Cardinals pal Skip Schumacher is now their manager. Hopefully he left the voodoo back with the Provel in StL. Based on the Cardinals record this year and the Marlins record in one run games, signs point to Jobu moving to Miami.

(Projected) Team Leaders

Numbers taken from Zips projections – based on past performance there’s a 30% chance that I’ll put someone who is no longer in the team on these lists on any given week (dying laughing).

Fishes

  • OBP: Luis Arraez (.372)
  • ISO: Jorge Soler (.218)
  • HR: Soler (27)
  • R+RBI: Jazz Chisholm (162)
  • wRC+: Yuli Gurriel (131)
  • BSR: John Berti (2.9)
  • Defense: Jacob Stallings (17.2)
  • SP K/9: Jesus Luzardo (10.03)
  • SP BB/9: Sandy Alcantara (2.24)
  • SP FIP: Alcantara (3.53)
  • RP K/9: Tanner Scott (12.06)
  • RP BB/9: Sixto Sanchez (2.64)
  • RP FIP: Dylan Floro (?!) (3.50)
  • WAR: Arraez (3.9)

Cubs

  • OBP: Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.230)
  • HR: Wisdom / Swanson (24)
  • R+RBI: Swanson (171)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (135)
  • BSR: Hoerner (1.4)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.2)
  • SP K/9: Steele (8.94)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (2.16)
  • SP FIP: Stroman (3.69)
  • RP K/9: Hughes (10.62)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (2.89)
  • RP FIP: Fulmer (3.78)
  • WAR: Swanson (5.2)

Who isn’t available?

Cyle is still rehabbing his shoulder injury, and probably won’t be back until May. He got knocked around again in his second rehab start but was likely still just working on his pitches rather than working on getting outs. He’s headed to Chicago to work on some mechanical stuff with the big league coaches. Yan Gomes is on the concussion IL; no word if it will stay the minimum 7 days. Adrian Sampson, already on the IL in the minors, was called up and put on the major league IL instead. Probably a precursor to some roster shenanigans with Mervis. Brandon Hughes is back on the IL with the same knee inflammation that he suffered in the spring. He looked good in his first few outings so hopefully he won’t be out long.

For the Marlins, old pal Johnny Cueto is on the shelf with a bicep injury and is rehabbing in J-Town, one of the top five swamp cities in Northern Florida. Starter Trevor Rodgers is out indefinitely with an indefinitely defined arm injury suffered a week or two ago, and has yet to pick up a baseball. Starting shortstop Joey Wendle has been out since early April with an intercostal strain. Since the last series with the Cubs, Avasail Garcia hit the IL with back tightness.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for all starters

Fri-yay: Edward Cabrera, RHP (9.97, 4.65, 4.50) vs Justin Steele, LHP (9.04, 3.71, 3.68), 1:20 PM CT

Saturday: Bryan Hoeing, RHP (4.95, 2.61, 5.08) vs Drew Smyly, LHP (8.12, 2.66, 1.64) , 1:20 PM CT

Sunday: Sandy Alcantara, RHP (8.22, 2.34, 3.44) vs Hayden Wesneski, RHP (7.33, 2.99, 4.85),1:20 PM CT

Alcantara was great last year, to say the least, but he’s struggled in 2023. He hasn’t been particularly unlucky in any of his rate stats (e.g. BABIP, etc)…a lot of it just seems like good ol regression to the mean. He has walked more batters than in the past few years, but it’s not like he’s Carlos Marmol out there.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (14-10) at Miami Marlins (13-13)

The Cubs took care of business against a good Padres team, and embark on a fish-sandwich run of series with Marlins-Nationals-Marlins. Though I guess it’s only a fish sandwich if the fish is in the middle? I guess this is a Long John Silver’s style Double Down. The Marlins win projections are about in line with the Cubs at this point in the season, so we should see some relatively evenly matched games. The Marlins are coming off a series loss against the Barves, barely scraping out a win yesterday to avoid a four game sweep. Their offense as a whole has gotten off to a slow start, posting a .244/.301/.384 slash line and a 90 wrC+. Their pitching staff has posted a dead-on 4.50 ERA, so I guess expect a run every other inning. Or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

In addition to past…history…the Cubs have with the Marlins, I was surprised to find that old Cardinals pal Skip Schumacher is now their manager. Hopefully he left the voodoo back with the Provel in StL.

(Projected) Team Leaders

Numbers taken from Zips projections – based on past performance there’s a 30% chance that I’ll put someone who is no longer in the team on these lists on any given week (dying laughing).

Fishes

  • OBP: Luis Arraez (.372)
  • ISO: Jorge Soler (.218)
  • HR: Soler (27)
  • R+RBI: Jazz Chisholm (162)
  • wRC+: Yuli Gurriel (131)
  • BSR: John Berti (2.9)
  • Defense: Jacob Stallings (17.2)
  • SP K/9: Jesus Luzardo (10.03)
  • SP BB/9: Sandy Alcantara (2.24)
  • SP FIP: Alcantara (3.53)
  • RP K/9: Tanner Scott (12.06)
  • RP BB/9: Sixto Sanchez (2.64)
  • RP FIP: Dylan Floro (?!) (3.50)
  • WAR: Arraez (3.9)

Cubs

  • OBP: Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.230)
  • HR: Wisdom / Swanson (24)
  • R+RBI: Swanson (171)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (135)
  • BSR: Hoerner (1.4)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.2)
  • SP K/9: Steele (8.94)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (2.16)
  • SP FIP: Stroman (3.69)
  • RP K/9: Hughes (10.62)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (2.89)
  • RP FIP: Fulmer (3.78)
  • WAR: Swanson (5.2)

Who isn’t available?

Cyle is still rehabbing his shoulder injury, and probably won’t be back until May. He pitched for Iowa on Thursday and got knocked around, but was likely just working on his pitches rather than working on getting outs. He was supposedly hitting 89 or so on the gun, which is fireballing for Cyle. Jameson Taillon is out with a mild groin strain, and has graduated to long toss. He should be back in early May. And lest we forget, RP Codi Heuer had Tommy John last year, and could be back at midseason. He’s graduated to throwing live BP.

For the Marlins, old pal Johnny Cueto is on the shelf with a bicep injury and is rehabbing at extended spring training. Starter Trevor Rodgers is out indefinitely with an indefinitely defined arm injury suffered a week or two ago, and has yet to pick up a baseball. Starting shortstop Joey Wendle has been out since early April with an intercostal strain.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for all starters

Fri-yay: Marcus Stroman, RHP (7.95, 2.60, 3.66) vs Jesus Luzardo, LHP (10.05, 3.20, 3.94), 5:40 PM CT

Saturday: Caleb Killian??, RHP (7.91, 3.54, 4.15) vs Edward Cabrera, RHP (9.97, 4.65, 4.50), 3:05 PM CT

The Cubs have not announced Saturday’s starter, but it’s more likely than not to be Killian.

Sunday: Justin Steele, LHP (9/04, 3.71, 3.68) vs Bryan Hoeing, RHP 4.95, 2.61, 5.08(), 11:05 PM CT

Series Preview: San Diego Padres (12-12) at Chicago Cubs (12-9)

Lots of electrons have been spilled in the past week or so about the Cubs hot start, and subsequent disappointment with losing the four game set with the Dodgers. I’m not really sweating it that much.

For one, if you told me that the Cubs would go 3-4 vs the Dodgers, with most games being competitive, I would have been pleasantly surprised. The Dodgers have taken a step back from their All-World roster from a year or two ago but are still a very good team, while I thought going into the season that the Cubs would merely be kinda good. If these wins were sequenced differently, with the losses spread throughout instead of capping off the series there wouldn’t be quite as much salt. Kinda good vs very good resulting in 3-4 seems fine.

Before opening day, I predicted this Cubs team would win 80 games, and I felt like I was getting out over my skis a bit with that optimism. Little did I know that that would be the lowest predicted win total among my fellow podcasters (dying laughing). The Cubs have banked some wins with some good performances against a relatively tough April schedule but my opinion hasn’t changed much on the true talent level going forward. This team is good, not great, and the cracks are showing a bit. The Cubs do not have a good top to bottom bullpen. Oddly enough they have great multi-inning guys but a giant question mark at the back end (dying laughing). The starting pitching looks great but they’re not this great. The only guys I’ve really changed my mind on so far are Patrick Wisdom, streaky as he can be, and Dansby Swanson, who has a chance of not regressing as hard on offense as I might have expected. His defense is definitely for real.

I’m going to sit back and enjoy this team. It seems like a fun bunch of guys and the vibes are good. I’d love to see Mervis up but I don’t think it’s some kind of existential failure of the front office to leave him in Iowa a while longer. I’m not going to sweat every win and loss, at least for the next few months.

*clears throat* Anyway, the Padres are heading to town, so let’s talk about that instead. The Padres spent big in the offseason but have been slow to warm up, only posting a .216/.301/.378 line on the year, good for a 90 wRC+ that is 24th in the bigs. New signing Xander Bogaerts has gotten off to a Dansby-like hot start, but the rest of the team has struggled to hit. On the pitching side, Seth Lugo and Yu Darvish (cough should still be a Cub) have been solid to start the year. I’d say the Cubs should put out a bunch of kettlebells in the visiting clubhouse as a joke on Joe Musgrove, but I wouldn’t wish that on Darvish.

(Projected) Team Leaders

Numbers taken from Zips projections – based on past performance there’s a 30% chance that I’ll put someone who is no longer in the team on these lists on any given week (dying laughing).

Padres

  • OBP: Juan Soto (.428)
  • ISO: Fernando Tatis Jr (.303)
  • HR: Tatis (38)
  • R+RBI: Soto (185)
  • wRC+: Soto (164)
  • BSR: Tatis (2.2)
  • Defense: Trent Grisham (8.8)
  • SP K/9: Blake Snell (11.40)
  • SP BB/9: Yu Darvish (2.05)
  • SP FIP: Joe Musgrove (3.18)
  • RP K/9: Josh Hader (14.26)
  • RP BB/9: Nabil Crismatt (2.52)
  • RP FIP: Hader (2.76)
  • WAR: Soto (6.3)

Cubs

  • OBP: Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.230)
  • HR: Wisdom / Swanson (24)
  • R+RBI: Swanson (171)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (135)
  • BSR: Hoerner (1.4)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.2)
  • SP K/9: Steele (8.94)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (2.16)
  • SP FIP: Stroman (3.69)
  • RP K/9: Hughes (10.62)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (2.89)
  • RP FIP: Fulmer (3.78)
  • WAR: Swanson (5.2)

Who isn’t available?

Cyle is still rehabbing his shoulder injury, and probably won’t be back until May. He threw 47 pitches in a side session last week and will likely make a few minor league starts over the next few weeks. Jameson Taillon is out with a mild groin strain, and did some light tossing earlier this week. No word yet on if he’ll be back asap. And lest we forget, RP Codi Heuer had Tommy John last year, and could be back at midseason. He’s graduated to throwing live BP.

For the Padres, Yu Darvish is day-to-day with hamstring cramping but should make his next start. The improbably named reliever Nabil Crismatt is out with a hip strain.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for all starters

Tuesday: Blake Snell, LHP (11.32, 3.75, 3.95) vs Justin Steele, LHP (9.04, 3.71, 3.72), 6:40 PM CT

Wednesday: Michael Wacha, RHP (7.87, 2.60, 4.32) vs Drew Smyly, LHP (8.37, 2.79, 4.62), 6:40 PM CT

Thursday: Seth Lugo, RHP (9.54, 2.74, 3.50) vs Hayden Wesneski, RHP (7.51, 3.13, 4.88), 1:20 PM CT

Cubs 10, A’s 1

OSS: Two more Wizdongs lead the way to a Cubs blowout

Three up:

  1. Patrick Wisdom’s red hot start continues with two more homers. Wisdom now has a .288/.351/.788 slash line, good for a whopping 193 wRC+. His eight homers are tied with Pete Alonso for the MLB lead. I mentioned it during the game thread; if he keeps up this pace I may reconsider my preseason assessment that all he brings to the roster is Handsomeness. It’s on Wisdom to put up a 96 HR season and prove me wrong.
  2. Hayden Wesneski had a bit of a shaky first few innings, but improved as the game went on. He finished with a line of 7 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 R. Cubs starting pitching has been great in this young season.
  3. Cody Bellinger’s bat continues to show signs of life. He went 5-5, including a double, and his line on the season now sits at .310/.369/.517. I don’t think anyone expects him to put up numbers on the level of his 2019 MVP season, but with his defense in CF even being a league average hitter would make this a fantastic signing for the Cubs. His wRC+ of 136 makes things look even better.

Three down:

  1. Matt Mervis watch continues. The Cubs offensive explosion happened despite Trey Mancini going 0-5 with 3 Ks. Given the deal he signed, Mancini isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but if this team’s record continues to look cromulent Eric Hosmer’s days are numbered.
  2. The Binny’s attendance game on the radio broadcast was a pretty sad one. 4500 fans is not what you want. Unless you’re the Oakland owner, who is trying to enact the plot of Major League IRL this season.
  3. Believe it or not, the Cubs had the most negative WPA play on the day when Ian Happ popped out to third base with runners on the corners when the game was tied in the third inning.

Next up:

Marcus Stroman faces the bass player from Armada at 8:40 PM CT

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (8-6) at Oakland Athletics (3-13)

I’m too lazy to write a postgame and a new preview so just riff on the Dodgers series some more here before getting to the new series (dying laughing). The last time the Cubs won a regular season series in LA was 2014. Edwin Jackson picked up the win. I saw a lot of sweeps as I worked my way back through b-ref to look this up. Of course, the Cubs did beat the Dodgers in the 2016 NLCS (people forget that), but even then, they only took 1 of 3 games played at Chavez Ravine. Aside from the series win/near sweep the next best thing is that we are spared the awful Dodgers sound board guy from their stadium for the rest of the year.

Patrick Wisdom’s hot streak continued through the Dodgers series, and he now has five HRs and a 142 wRC+ and has 0.5 WAR already. The other big story of the season so far has been the Cubs starting pitching, which had a 3.24 ERA going into Sunday’s game, good for second in the NL and fourth in the bigs. The bullpen meanwhile, is died with the Astros for the best strikeout rate in all of baseball.

The A’s, meanwhile have posted by far the worst starting pitching performance in the majors, by both ERA (9.71) and FIP (7.34). Their bullpen is merely the fourth worst by ERA but remains the worst by FIP (5.96) though the back of that ignominious pack is a lot more clustered. While the Cubs offense has been squarely in the middle of the pack so far, Oakland’s 25th ranked offense is merely the ‘best’ among the other rebuilding teams around baseball.

(Projected) Team leaders

Numbers taken from Zips projections – based on past performance there’s a 30% chance that I’ll put someone who is no longer in the team on these lists on any given week (dying laughing).

Possum Land

  • OBP: Tony Kemp (.330) (ouch)
  • ISO: Seth Brown (.224)
  • HR: Brown (26)
  • R+RBI: Brown (138)
  • wRC+: Brown (117)
  • BSR: Esteury Ruiz (2.7)
  • Defense: Nick ALlen (13.6)
  • SP K/9: Ken Waldichuk (9.91)
  • SP BB/9: Paul Blackburn (2.64)
  • SP FIP: Kyle Muller (3.79)
  • RP K/9: Zach Jackson (11.56)
  • RP BB/9: Domingo Acevedo (2.34)
  • RP FIP: Richard Lovelady (3.42)
  • WAR: Ramon Laureano (2.9)

Cubs

  • OBP: Suzuki (.352)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.230)
  • HR: Wisdom / Swanson (24)
  • R+RBI: Swanson (171)
  • wRC+: Suzuki (135)
  • BSR: Hoerner (1.4)
  • Defense: Swanson (16.2)
  • SP K/9: Steele (8.94)
  • SP BB/9: Taillon (2.16)
  • SP FIP: Stroman (3.69)
  • RP K/9: Hughes (10.62)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (2.89)
  • RP FIP: Fulmer (3.78)
  • WAR: Swanson (5.2)

Who isn’t available?

Cyle is still rehabbing his shoulder injury, and probably won’t be back until May. He threw a 30-pitch bullpen session on Saturday and is probably still a few weeks out. Lefty reliever Brandon Hughes just reterned from the IL with a knee issue. And lest we forget, RP Codi Heuer had Tommy John last year, and could be back at midseason. He’s graduated to throwing live BP.

For the A’s, OF Seth Brown suffered an oblique strain last week and is out for a month or two. Former Cubs farmhand Paul Blackburn is rehabbing in the minors after suffering a fingernail injury in Spring Training.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for all starters

Monday: Hayden Wesneski, RHP (7.58, 3.30, 4.97) vs Kyle Muller (9.14, 3.84, 4.03), 8:40 PM CT

Tuesday: Marcus Stroman, RHP (7.90, 2.60, 3.55) vs Ken Waldichuk, LHP (9.63, 3.90, 4.37), 8:40 PM CT

He’s no Herman Menderchuk, that’s all I gotta say. Though at least he Made It.

Wednesday: Justin Steele, LHP (9.08, 3.73, 3.76) vs James Kaprielian, RHP (7.70, 3.73, 4.72), 2:37 PM CT