dmick89 – Obstructed View

Series Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers (37-32) @ Chicago Cubs (40-27)

The best two teams in the National League in 2016 and 2017 were the Cubs and Dodgers. The best two teams this year probably would have been the Cubs and Dodgers if it wasn’t for some injuries to the Dodgers. The Dodgers have rebounded and are one of the hottest teams in the league so it might turn out that they are again the two best teams in the league. They may meet up for a third time in a row in the NLCS.

Team Leaders

Dodgers

OBP: Max Muncy (.385)
ISO: Muncy (.336)
HR: Muncy (13)
R+RBI: Matt Kemp (75)
wRC+: Muncy (165)
BSR: Enrique Hernandez (2.0)
DRS: Austin Barnes (+5)
SP K%: Ross Stripling (30.7%)
SP BB%: Stripling (2.5%)
SP FIP: Walker Buehler (2.25)
RP K%: Tony Cingrani (39.6%)
RP BB%: Cingrani (6.6%)
RP FIP: Cingrani (2.11)
WAR: Kemp (2.2)

Cubs

OBP: Kris Bryant (.389)
ISO: Javier Baez (.259)
HR: Baez (14)
R+RBI: Baez (83)
wRC+: Bryant (136)
BSR: Baez (3.2)
DRS: Addison Russell (12)
SP K%: Yu Darvish (27.2%)
SP BB%: Kyle Hendricks (6.7%)
SP FIP: Jon Lester (4.19)
RP K%: Carl Edwards, Jr. (38.1%)
RP BB/9: Pedro Strop (8.0%)
RP FIP: Edwards, Jr. (2.37)
WAR: Bryant (2.3)

Injuries, transactions, vengenace pacts, etc.

The Dodgers have had a ton of injuries. The biggest is the loss of Corey Seager for the entire season. Any time you lose a player of that caliber for the entire year it’s going to hurt, but the Dodgers have so much talent that it was still surprising to see them start the season so slowly. Also out is Pedro Baez, Walker Buehler, Tony Cingrani, Julio Urias and of course, Clayton Kershaw. It sounds like Kershaw may be a couple weeks away from a return and the Dodgers are still in a good position to take the NL West.

Carl Edwards, Jr. is still out for the Cubs. He’s out with a shoulder injury and has been out nearly a month. He’s thrown off flat ground, but not from a mound yet. It will take him some time once he does to get back to full strength. It’s possible he returns before the All Star Break, but probably not much before. The same is true of Yu Darvish who has been out since May 20th with a triceps injury.

Javier Baez was hit by a pitch last night on the elbow and left the game. He’s listed as day to day, but he said he was good to go. I get the feeling Javy would say that even if his elbow had been completely blown off by the pitch.

Pitching Probables

ERA, FIP, Projected K/9, BB/9, FIP listed for each pitcher. I’m nodding off as I write this so no pithy capsules today. No dinner tomorrow.

At least the Cubs aren’t facing Mikolas.

Monday: Kenta Maeda, RHP (3.61, 3.02, 9.42, 2.56, 3.70) vs Tyler Chatwood, RHP (4.12, 4.76, 8.24, 8.24, 4.50) 7:05 PM CT

Maeda has walked a few more batters this season, but compared to the guy who is pitching for the Cubs tonight, he has had pinpoint control. Maeda has compensated for more walks by striking out more and allowing fewer home runs as he puts together his best season in the states.

Chatwood sucks and has only put up a semi-respectable ERA and FIP to this point because he’s kept the ball in the park. It’s something he probably won’t do as well moving forward. I can’t wait for Darvish to get back so Chatwood can finally take his rightful place in the bullpen. He’s a horrible starting pitcher, but might actually be a decent reliever. At least he’s probably better than Anthony Bass.

Tuesday: Rich Hill, LHP (6.20, 6.33, 9.12, 4.74, 3.96) vs Mike Montgomery, LHP (3.31, 3.89, 5.33, 2.39, 4.30), 7:05 PM CT

Rich Hill hasn’t started since the middle of May. He’s only made 6 starts this year and they haven’t been nearly as good as his standout season last year. He’s still striking out a lot of batters, but his walks have increased significantly and he’s allowing a lot of home runs (this is the Rich Hill I remember from his Cubs days). On his best days he’s almost impossible to hit, but he hasn’t had many of those this year.

Montgomery moved into the rotation on May 28th and has made four starts. In those starts he’s thrown a total of 23.2 innings, allowed 13 hits, 3 runs, 2 home runs, walked 3 and struck out 14. On the season he’s striking out quite a few less batters than he did in 2017 and way less than he did in 2016. He’s also walking many fewer batters and still keeping the ball in the ballpark. Monty is a great pitcher, but he’s been fairly reliable for the Cubs and is the team’s fifth best starter and it’s not even close.

Wednesday: Ross Stripling, RHP (1.75, 2.41, 10.58, 1.49, 3.65) vs Jon Lester, LHP (2.28, 4.19, 7.48, 3.04, 3.90), 1:20 PM CT

Stripling is having a ridiculously good season. His K-BB% is 25.6%. He’s striking out more, walking fewer batters and allowing fewer home runs. He’s also been a little lucky having stranded just over 90% of the runners who have reached base.

It would be nice if Lester would start striking out more batters, but the end result has been pretty good even if it’s not likely to keep itself up. He’s stranded over 85% of the runners, allowed only a .233 BABIP and is allowing many more balls in the air this year. Combined with fewer strikeouts, it’s kind of a miracle he’s allowing so few runs to score. He’ll almost certainly make another all-star team even if there are more deserving pitchers.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (37-25) @ Milwaukee Brewers (39-26)

The Cubs head to Milwaukee for the biggest series of the year so far. The Cubs are half a game behind the Brewers. It’s not a huge series or anything since it’s only the middle of June, but I think both teams are just wanting to get out of this series without getting swept.

Team Leaders

Cubs

OBP: Kris Bryant (.402)
ISO: Javier Baez (.272)
HR: Baez (7)
wRC+: Bryant (144)
BSR: Baez (2.6)
DRS: Addison Russell (+10)
SP K%: Yu Darvish (27.2%)
SP BB%: Kyle Hendricks (6%)
SP FIP: Jon Lester (3.99)
RP K%: Carl Edwards Jr.(38.1%)
RP BB%: Pedro Strop (8.6%)
RP FIP: Edwards (2.39)
WAR: Bryant (2.3)

Brewers

OBP: Lorenzo Cain (.384)
ISO: Jesus Aguilar (.254)
HR: Travis Shaw (14)
wRC+: Aguilar (140)
BSR: Christian Yellich (2.2)
DRS: Cain (10)
SP K%: Junior Guerra (22.7%)
SP BB%: Brent Suter (5.3%)
SP FIP: Guerra (3.73)
RP K%: Josh Hader (55.6%)
RP BB/9: Matt Albers (5.5%)
RP FIP: Hader (0.98)
WAR: Cain (2.4)

Injuries, transactions, vengenace pacts, etc.

Zach Davies is out with a shoulder injury and Jimmy Nelson is still out with the shoulder he injured against the Cubs late last season. Eric Thames is out with a thumb injury.

Eddie Butler is still out with a groin strain and there’s no ETA on his return. It was reported yesterday that Yu Darvish probably won’t pitch before the all-star break. Carl Edwards, Jr. has been out since the end of May with shoulder inflammation. He’s reportedly pain free and in the middle of a strengthening program.

Pitching Probables

ERA, FIP, Projected K/9, BB/9, FIP listed for each pitcher.

Monday: Jose Quintana, LHP (4.20, 4.08, 9.21, 2.88, 3.49) vs Junior Guerra, RHP (2.83, 3.74, 8.49, 4.03, 4.78), 7:10 PM CT

In 2014, 2015 and 2016, Quintana’s HR/FB was below 10% and he was a really good pitcher. Over the last two years it’s been about 13.2% and he has been above average, but not nearly as good as we’d hoped for. He’s walked a lot of guys this year compared to the past. He’s walked more than double the batters per 9 this year that he did in 2015 and 2016.

Junior Guerra was the Brewers opening day starter last year and he sucked, but he’s been a lot better this season, but that’s thanks almost entirely to his HR/FB rate falling back to normal levels. He’s also walking fewer batters than last year, but in line with what he did before that. He’s not as good as his 2.83 ERA. His xFIP is 4.22.

Tuesday: Tyler Chatwood, RHP (3.86, 4.99, 7.73, 5.21, 4.54) vs Chase Anderson, RHP (4.57, 5.81, 7.62, 3.17, 4.93), 7:10 PM CT

Both of these pitchers suck. Chatwood walks every other batter he faces and Anderson can’t strike anybody out this year. Anderson also gives up a lot of home runs so maybe Kris Bryant can go deep in this one. I expect the Brewers to take 7 walks in 3.2 innings from Chatwood and the Cubs will hit 3 home runs off of Anderson.

Wednesday: Mike Montgomery, LHP (8.81, 2.68, 3.70) vs Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (8.09, 3.11, 4.10), 1:10 PM CT

This will be Monty’s fourth start of the season. He’s been pretty good so far. He’s thrown 17.2 innings, allowed 11 hits and 2 runs. He’s given up only 1 home runs, walked 2 and struck out 10 in those previous three starts. Overall on the season, he’s on par with what he did a year ago. He’s striking out a few less batters, but walking fewer too. If Yu Darvish ever comes back, I hope Monty stays in the rotation and Chatwood goes to the pen.

Chacin is a really good pickup for the Brewers and cost less than half what Chatwood did. He’s been a little lucky so far this year (6.9% HR/FB rate) and he’s given up a lot more fly balls this season. His career GB/FB rate is 1.52 (that’s exactly what it was in 2017) and this year it’s 0.98.

Cubs to sign Brandon Morrow Updated

According to Jon Heyman, the Cubs will sign Brandon Morrow for $10-11 million per year, but the length of the contract is not yet known. He's coming off the best year of his career, but it was less than 50 innings and what he's done prior to 2017 leaves a lot to be desired. Depending on how long the deal is, I still like it since the Cubs need bullpen arms. More to come later. Or not.

Morrow will have deal with cubs. Expected to be for 10 or 11M a year.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 10, 2017

Update: It's a two year deal with an option for a third year according to Jeff Passan. The deal is pending a physical.

Update: The deal is for two years and he'll earn $9 million in each of 2018 and 2019 with a vesting option for $12 million for 2020 or a $3 million buyout. I thought Morrow would get quite a bit more than that so I'm pretty happy with this deal even though I know there's a chance that 2017 was a fluke. There might even be a good chance that it's a fluke, but the Cubs didn't break the bank and if Morrow can come close to what he did this past season then the Cubs will come well ahead in this deal.

Cubs hire Chili Davis as hitting coach

The Cubs let John Mallee go and hired Chili Davis to take over. Theo said that Joe Maddon could have any coach back that he wanted and it turns out that there were a lot that he did not want back. The Angels hired assistant hitting coach Eric Hinske away from the team a few days ago and they let Chris Bosio walk too. Davis had been the hitting coach with the A's for three years and with the Red Sox the past three seasons. The team also hired Brian Butterfield away from the Red Sox to replace 3rd base coach Gary Jones and they promoted Andy Haines from minor league hitting coordinator to assistant hitting coach.

Since hanging up the spikes, Davis has also emerged as a well-regarded hitting coach, first taking the position with the Athletics (2012-14) before joining the Red Sox (2015-17). He drew interest from the Padres in the same role and has also been listed as a speculative managerial candidate at times. While there are many in the Boston organization that deserve some degree of credit, Davis was the primary voice guiding Boston’s rising crop of young bats, including Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendiand Xander Bogaerts.

The 59-year-old Butterfield will bring more than two decades of coaching experience to the Cubs. He’s previously held various positions with the Yankees, Blue Jays and D-backs, serving as a first base coach, third base coach and bench coach at the Major League level.

If there aren't any additional changes to the coaching staff, that still leaves the vacant pitching coach position to be filled. The Cubs have interviewed Jim Hickey who became available at the end of the season. He and Joe worked together for a long time in Tampa Bay.

Cubs fire pitching coach Chris Bosio

After the Cubs pitchers struggled to throw strikes in the postseason, the Cubs have fired Chris Bosio. Joe Maddon thought the entire coaching staff would stay intact, which wasn't hard to believe since they've won an average of 97 games over the last three seasons.

Earlier this week, Cubs manager Joe Maddon said he'd thought the coaching staff would stay intact heading into next season.

"Of course," Maddon said Wednesday, before the Cubs were eliminated by the Dodgers in the NLCS. "Listen, the staff's done a great job. Our staff's been awesome. It's a tightly-knit group. Really, there's a lot of synergy involved."

Earlier this week, Theo Epstein was on some radio show and was talking about taking ownership of the control issues the team had in the postseason so it's not surprising to see them go in a different direction here. It was not all Bosio's fault, but the pitching coach is usually the first to go when there's obviously an issue and there clearly was. That ESPN article suggests the Cubs will be looking at Jim Hickey who was with Joe in Tampa Bay. I'd also suggest Mike Maddux since he's also available now.