Author: dmick89

Cashner to have another MRI

Andrew Cashner’s extended spring training start was called off today because of tightness in his shoulder. He’ll have another MRI.

CINCINNATI- Andrew Cashner’s rehab from a rotator cuff strain hit a setback when he experienced shoulder tightness while warming up before a throwing session Monday in Mesa, Ariz.

Cashner will get an MRI on the right shoulder. He experienced pain in his first start and had been on the disabled list since April 6.

Quade put to rest any idea that Cashner would be used in relief when he returned.

“Cashner is a starter as far as I’m concerned,” Quade said. “We’ll make adjustments when the time comes. Cashner to me is a starter. That’s what we’ve committed to, and that’s what he is. I don’t know what would change that, but nothing that’s happened to this point, that’s for sure.”

As for the returns, Wells will probably be back the end of May or first week of June. Cashner’s return has obviously been delayed and we won’t know how long until we hear about the MRI results. He was on pact to return about the second week of June so this puts it back at least one more month. Even if it’s just a minor setback, we shouldn’t expect to see Andrew Cashner at the big league level until after the all-star break.

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Grades so far: Outfield

byrd-soriano-fukudomeI haven’t gotten to this one as quickly as I’d hoped, but here it is. You can read about the article I wrote about the infield if you haven’t already.

Alfonso Soriano – It hasn’t been pretty, but Soriano has been a productive hitter to this point in the season. He has a .359 wOBA thanks to his 11 home runs and career best .278 ISO. Despite that, his OBP sits at .292 thanks to a career worst BB% (3.6%). He’s also struckout more than any other season in his career. His K% is 28.6% compared to a 22.3% career rate. As Soriano’s HR/FB rate comes back to earth, Soriano’s wOBA will too. Soriano can still crush left-handed pitching. He’s hit .438 wOBA vs them this season. He’s also only a league average hitter vs righties (.333 so far this year). Since 2008 he’s hit between .328 and .333 vs righties. His BB% vs righties this year is under 2%. I’m not joking.

Soriano has also managed to post the worst fielding percentage of his career. This includes his years at 2nd base. Fielding percentage isn’t a very good metric, but I don’t even know how a left fielder has a .953 fielding percentage. As a result, he has the lowest UZR/150 of his career with the exeption of 2005 when he was at 2nd base with the Rangers.

Marlon Byrd – Despite a rough batting line through 19 or 20 games of the season, Byrd has hit batting line up to .312/.342/.390 (.325 wOBA). Byrd’s BB% has declined to 3.1% this season, which keeps his OBP rather mediocre despite a .312 batting average. The biggest problem so far for Byrd is that only 23.6% of the balls he puts in play have been fly balls (32.1% career). On top of that, only 3.3% of those have left the yard compared to 8.2% in his career. His FB rate will probably increase a bit and his HR/FB rate should also increase somewhat. The BB% is a concern. Byrd has never had much plate discipline, but 3.1% is just awful. Byrd also has a .373 BABIP which will also decline. In the end, expect him to hit about the same as he’s hit the last few seasons. UZR has Byrd at -1.6 while DRS has him at -1 and Total Zone at 3. He’s always been a league average fielder and that’s what he’s been so far this year.

Kosuke Fukudome – I published a few charts earlier in the week about Fukudome and how his average and OBP were pretty much the same as it was his previous 3 seasons through 26 games. Where it differs is that Fukudome has hit for almost no power at all this season. He only has 4 extra base hits on the season and his ISO is ridiculously low at .044. He has posted a career high BB% (16.4%) and thanks to an absurdly high .431 BABIP he’s posted a .387 wOBA. Fukudome is also hitting far fewer balls in the air and none have been hit out yet. Expect more fly balls and an increase to his HR/FB rate. That should help offset the inevitable BABIP regression.

Reed Johnson – In less than half the plate apeparances as Fukudome, Reed Johnson has more extra base hits. He has 4 doubles, a triple and a home run. He’s been extremely lucky on balls in play (.452 BABIP), but he does have nearly a 26% line drive rate. Both numbers are going to come down considerably and when they do, the .456 wOBA will as well.

Tyler Colvin – Colvin has lost playing time to Reed Johnson because Johnson has hit very well in part due to luck while Colvin has hit terribly. The poor hitting from Colvin is also luck. His BABIP is .116. Only 68 plate appearances so far, he’s increased his BB% to 8.8% and slightly decreased his K% to 27.4%. A lot has been made about Colvin’s approach at the plate, but it’s important to point out that the league average BB% is 7.8%. Colvin has walked more frequently than the league average hitter so far. He walked 7.6% of the time last year so a slight improvement would be expected at his age.

If we adjust Colvin’s line to his ZiPS projected .286 BABIP, it changes Colvin’s batting line from .113/.191/.258 to a more respectable .231/.311/.391. That would be a .304 wOBA. Obviously not good, but significantly better than the ugly .199 wOBA he currently has. I’d like to see Colvin get some more playing time. He probably ends up getting sent to Iowa, but I think the increase in BB% is a good sign. He’s never going to be a great player, but he’s better than he’s played so far by quite a lot.

We’re trying out this new poll module so vote for whatever you think even if you don’t think it should happen.

{loadposition brettjacksonpoll}

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To slot or not to slot

I read an interesting article today from Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports re: the bonus slotting issue that is being debated for the next CBA.  

Here’s what seems to be the most important point of argument:

Somewhere in the middle sit the players, the MLBPA’s truest voices and, in all likelihood, the ultimate arbiters of the draft slotting debate. Former union chief Don Fehr called this a “wedge issue” for good reason. While the Washington Nationals gave Stephen Strasburg(notes) $15.1 million and Bryce Harper(notes) $9.9 million as the No. 1 overall picks, veterans went unsigned or fetched less than anticipated. It sent a bad message: Big money, previously the domain of union members on 40-man rosters, instead was going to unproven kids.

 Then:

At the same time, the union is certain its players will overlook the big dollar values at the top for the empirical fear: Any sort of a cap on salaries, even for amateur players, opens the Pandora’s box for MLB to suggest one in other facets of the game.

There’s also the signability issue, which is something teams like Tampa Bay and Kansas City and Pittsburgh, who don’t have a large big-league budget but keep hoarding money to get the best prospects in the draft, have to deal with (sorry for the Yellonesque sentence).  The signability thing is also suggested to be one of the reasons the Cubs took Hayden Simpson in the first round when they could have had a real first-rounder.

The increase in bonuses has scared teams away from the best available player and allowed superior talent to slip because of signability concerns, a problem for a draft supposedly designed to distribute talent evenly. It’s also something agents do not believe slotting would solve.

I don’t know the Cubs’ financials but it would seem stupid not to have a bunch of money to throw at the draft this year, especially if it is so deep.  As fearless leader mb21 has laid out, the Cubs are projected to take Bubba Starling with their #9 pick this June, and will probably have to give him a heap of bonus money (a la Samardzija/Szczur) to keep him from playing college football.  The Cubs also have a bunch of money coming off the books as they don’t have to pay Fail Whale or Grabow anymore, they probably won’t re-sign Fukudome, half of Carlos Pena’s contract is done, and they’ll likely buy out Aramis Ramirez if he is in fact D-O-N-E.  That really depends on whether they throw an armored truck full of cash at Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, but they’ve gotta have some money left to make a top pick think it’s worth their while to become a Cub.

The article was mainly about the fight between MLB and the players’ union and sports agents over the limiting of bonuses, but the above are just my thoughts relating to the Cubs after reading said article.  It sounds like they won’t put limits on bonuses and won’t do any hard slots as that entails a slippery slope that would lead to a salary cap of sorts, and nobody in baseball seems to want that.  If there are no limits, then the Cubs as an alleged large-market team has to be willing to spend.

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Checking up on the Cubs top prospects

I have always wanted to write more about the minor leagues, but whenever I start to do so I have failed to keep it up. As a result, I’ve mostly stopped writing articles about minor league players unless it’s relevant to the big league team. I know there are at least a few of you who closely follow the Cubs minor league system and we’d be appreciative of the occasional post on Unobstructed Views about minor league performances. Any registered user has access to publish their own content. It doesn’t take a great deal of time for those of you who are paying attention. (click the link below to read more)
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Wells to start rehab on Tuesday

Randy Wells will begin his rehab on Tuesday. I was thinking it would be five days later, but the Cubs could use some rotation help as it is.

CHICAGO — Cubs pitcher Randy Wells threw two innings in an extended spring training game on Thursday in Mesa, Ariz., and the next step will be a Minor League rehab start for Class A Peoria, next Tuesday.

His next scheduled start would be the 22nd. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t move up to AAA for that one and then return on or around the 27th.

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How much have the injuries cost the Cubs, and projecting Doug Davis

Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner were placed on the DL following their first start of the season. Each is currently rehabbing in Arizona and just began facing live batters this week. Wells is a bit ahead of Cashner, but neither pitcher is probably going to be back with the big league club by the end of the month. Wells pitched a couple innings in game in Arizona yesterday while Cashner threw a bullpen session. (click the link below to read more)
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Kosuke Fukudome’s Odd Season So Far

Kosuke Fukudome has been known for his great April starts and then fading away. This year has been a bit different. He’s still hitting fairly well into May, which is because of the new calendar the Cubs presented him with, but something is different. I put together these images of his AVG, OBP and SLG after each of the first 26 games he played in during 2008, 2009, 2010 and this year. Click on them to enlarge.

{yoogallery src=[/images/stories/Fukudome26] width=[200] height=[200] prefix=[thumb200_] thumb_cache_dir=[thumbs200]}

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Welington Castillo to Chicago?

It could be nothing, but I couldn’t help but notice that moments after Soto was out of the game that the Iowa Cubs pinch hit for Welington Castillo. Castillo began the season rehabbing in High-A Daytona and has hit a combined .244/.324/.400. This is his 14th game for the Iowa Cubs and he played 12 for Daytona prior to getting re-called to AAA. ZiPS projected a .299 wOBA from Castillo entering the season so he’s not much better than Koyie Hill offensively.

UPDATE: Cubs.com says day to day for Soto so it’s probably nothing.

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Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals (20-15) at Chicago Cubs (15-18)

The Cubs stranded approximately 215 baserunners in the last series against the Reds, and I don’t know if I should be encouraged by the numbers of batters who got on base or discouraged by the fact that the only win the Cubs got in the series was on a 9th inning, down by one rally on Saturday that almost fell apart on its own rights due to a fluke ground rule double on a hit that should have ended the game.

With the Cardinals coming to town for the first time this season, I’m surprised more buzz hasn’t been whipped up by the press over Theriot’s comments in the offseason. Of course, I don’t regularly read any of the beat writers but generally this bleeds through to twitter etc. The only person I’ve seen beating that noble drum is CubbieJulie. It should be interesting to see what kind of reception he gets.

Team Overview

Team stats (with NL ranks)

wOBA: .350 (1st)
UZR: 6.4 (6th)
DRS: 0 (5th)
SP FIP: 3.53 (4th)
SP xFIP: 3.56 (4th)
RP FIP: 3.71 (10th)
RP xFIP: 4.01 (12th)

Batters

Player wOBA ZiPS wOBA
SS Ryan Theriot .311 .297
CF Colby Rasmus .383 .350
1b Albert Pujols .330 .413
LF Matt Holliday .475 .391
RF Lance Berkman .492 .382
C Yadier Molina .308 .316
3B Nick Punto .281 .293
2B Tyler Greene .335 .306

The biggest surprise of the year is how well Lance Berkman is hitting, and the second biggest surprise is how poorly Pujols is hitting. A big part of Pujols’s numbers is his .228 BABIP, which has not surprisingly driven his batting average 60 points lower than last year’s. However, his ISO is also down by more than 100 points and he’s taking less walks than usual. Pujols still has 7 HRs and the ability to hit his way out of this, but it’s one of the biggest surprises this season. I can’t wait until one of the Cubs beat writers looks at Pujols’s numbers and states that the Cubs shouldn’t sign him, because clearly he stinks (laughing). The Cardinals are missing 3b David Freese (broken hand) and “2b” Skip Schumaker (biceps), but at least their backups play good defense. There’s not much you can say about their bats though. Luckily the heart of the Cardinals order is more than making up for everyone else’s struggles.

Pitchers

Player ERA FIP ZiPS FIP
RHP Chris Carpenter 4.19 4.26 3.46
LHP Jaime Garcia 1.99 2.36 3.19
RHP Kyle Lohse 2.24 3.20 3.82
RHP Jake Westbrook 6.14 4.35 4.02
RHP Kyle McClellan 3.30 3.99 4.03
RHP Mitchell Boggs 3.24 2.39 3.76
RHP Jason Motte 1.76 2.41 3.08

After the Wainwright injury, I still though that the Cardinals were the best team in the NL Central. But I also would have said that it was now even more important that Pujols and Carpenter have good seasons for the Cards to take first place. It figures that both of them have had fairly mediocre years. Luckily for the Cardinals, besides Berkman’s and Holliday’s insane hitting, they’ve gotten great performances from Lohse and McLellan, and Jaime Garcia‘s numbers are even better than they were in his impressive rooke season last year. Ryan Franklin finally managed to pitch his way out of the closer’s role, and the Cardinals are running out a closer by committee situation that’s largely being handled by Mitch Boggs.

Pitching matchups

Tuesday: Chris Carpenter, RHP (4.19, 4.26, 3.43, 3.46) vs Carlos Zambrano, RHP (4.23, 3.69, 4.04, 3.55), 7:05 PM CT

This might be my favorite matchup all season. I love watching both of these guys pitch, and it seems like every game where they’re matched up is a great one.

With Wainwright out for the season the Cards need even more out of Carpenter. Looking at his numbers from last season, I wonder how reckless it was for the Cards to have him pitch 235 innings last year when in 2007 and 2008 he essentially missed two entire seasons with arm injuries. Carpenter’s numbers don’t look like his usual numbers, but nearly all of that is due to his unlucky 16.2% HR/FB rate. In fact, he’s been a bit lucky with balls that don’t leave the yard as he has a .298 BABIP despite a LD rate north of 24%. It’s probably just luck, but we can hope that batters are seeing something this year. According to fangraphs pitch weights his fastball has been relatively hittable this year.

My biggest concern with Z this year is still batted ball rates, and despite the good results ERA wise in his last two starts he’s been giving up a ton of fly balls. His GB% sits at 37.7%, by far the lowest in his career, and he’s allowing a lot more balls in play. Given the number of fly balls he’s allowed it’s not surprising that his BABIP is lower, but he’s lucky that most of those fly balls haven’t left the yard. It’s heating up this week so he could be due for some trouble.

Wednesday: Jake Westbrook, RHP (6.14, 4.35, 4.10, 4.02) vs Matt Garza, RHP (4.43, 1.57, 2.04, 3.64), 7:05 PM CT

One of the biggest surprises for me this year is that Jake Westbrook has been pitching so poorly. I tried and mostly succeeded at drafting him in all of my fantasy leagues this year, figuring he was the perfect fit for a Dave Duncan retread project: he’s bouncing back from an injury, and already gets boatloads of ground balls. The ground ball part of his game is working even better than usual (62.4% GB rate) but many of them are finding holes (.331 BABIP) and even more importantly, his control of the strike zone has completely disappeared. He’s put up better numbers in his last few starts, so a hack-tastic lineup like the Cubs could be just what he needs to get him over the hump.

Garza finally gave up his first home run in his last start, but overall it was another good outing for him – aside from the HR he only gave up one line drive and induced a ton of ground balls. Garza has always been a big flyball pitcher in his career, but there’s only been one game this season where his opponents hit more flyballs than grounders this year. Granted, he did give up a lot of line drives in his first three starts so if you count those it doesn’t look quite as good. But the trend has continued in his last few starts as his LD rate has been supressed. His BABIP has fallen from the redonkulous near .500 numbers from earlier in the season to a merely ridiculous .388.

Thursday: Jaime Garcia, LHP (1.99, 2.36, 2.59, 3.19) vs Casey Coleman, RHP (6.29, 5.40, 5.58, 4.84), 1:20 PM CT

Garcia took a perfect game into the 8th inning against the Brewers in his last start. He had an impressive rookie year and has built on that even further, essentially becoming the third ace on the Cardinals staff (injured players division). His K/9 numbers have increased by a batter and a half, and he cut down his walk rate to 2.18. His BABIP is an unsustainable .263, especially given his GB tendencies so his ERA numbers should regress a bit, but he’s still easily the best pitcher on the staff right now.

Coleman finally had a good start, and it would have looked even better had Q not left him in a bit too long. He finally started getting his strikeouts (including multiple Ks of Joey Votto) but he’s still walking too many batters. Plus, all three of the walks in his last start led off an inning.

Prediction

Cardinals win two out of three, though I would not be surprised to see the Cubs take this series. Z always seems to step up his game when playing the Cardinals, especially when matched up with a great pitcher like Carpenter. I’m really looking forward to tonight’s game.

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A Post About Posts

When posting something to Unobstructed Views, you really only need to know a few things. Most of it is self-explantory. The buttons on the editor are helpful and if you scroll over one of them it will tell you what it does.

Linking: Highlight the text you want to turn into a link and then click on the link icon on the toolbar that has a green plus sign. It’s on the bottom row, third from the right. You’ll get a popup and then it’s pretty easy to figure out at that point. To unlink something, click on the broken link icon on the toolbar (to the right of the link icon).

Quoting: Highlight the text you want to quote and then under the Format dropdown (dropdown on the top right that says paragraph), click it and then select blockquote.

Tags: the article must be saved first to add tags. Once you publish the article you can access it by clicking on the Unobstructed Views menu item. From there you’ll see an Add Tags link below the article. Click on that and enter your tag. No reason to capitalize as it will do it automatically. To add multiple tags, separate each tag with a comma. For example, say you want to have tags for Cubs, Cubs lose and Cubs suck. You’d enter cubs, cubs lose, cubs suck

Spacing: Hitting return or enter on your keyboard creates a new paragraph so you only need to hit the button once.

Most of the icons on the editor you’ll never use. Scroll over any of them and you’ll know what each does. Currently the editor is too large and the sidebar overlaps it. That will be fixed eventually as we roll out an improved template in the near future.

IMPORTANT: Do not first type your post into Microsoft Word and then copy it into the editor. A whole bunch of code you didn’t intend to include will be copied over along with the text. It’s just a mess. If you like to write your post first and then copy into the editor, use a basic Text Editor. For Windows users, Notepad is fantastic for this. For Mac users, Text/Edit works just fine. There are other apps available. Just don’t use Microsoft Word. Oddly enough, you can copy/paste from Excel if you have a table in a spreadsheet that you want to publish. That works fine, but not from Word.

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