Author: GW

2013 MLB Draft: Live Draft Thread- Surprise! Cubs Take Kris Bryant

2013-MLB-draft1Draft Coverage

The 2013 MLB Draft kicks off at 6pm on MLB Network. The first two rounds are tonight. Pre-draft coverage is already underway. Unfortunately, Greg Amsinger is hosting rather than Brian Kenny. And as always, it seems, the guys who really know what’s going on are more or less marginalized. Peter Gammons, Harold Reynolds, and John Hart are at the main table. More Jim Callis, please. Can’t argue with the video highlights, though.

I’lll update this thread with analysis of the Cubs’ picks at #2 and #41 as the night progresses. OV draft archives are here.

Late Breaking News

Not much, really. Jonathan Mayo mentions that Kohl Stewart’s name has cropped up in the conversation for 1-1.

 

It will be interesting to see how seriously the Cubs take the position player over pitching philosophy. I’m guessing not very, and they end up with one of the college pitchers, and things play out mostly as has been predicted. Pitch f/x guru Harry Pavlidis, on the other hand thinks that the first 10 picks could play out very differently than everyone is expecting (h/t MO):

 

UPDATES

1. The Astros go with Appel. Oh, well.

2. Shocker! The Cubs passed on the live-armed Gray and went with Kris Bryant, the powerful third basemen from the University of San Diego.

Kris Bryant

From BA:

Bryant has shown huge raw power since his high school days in Las Vegas, and has blossomed into college baseball’s premier slugger. He posted a 1.081 OPS and nine homers as a freshmen, then a 1.154 OPS and 14 long balls as a sophomore, but he has taken his game to new heights as a junior, posting a 1.357 OPS and 25 home runs (seven more than any other Division I player) through 49 games. Opponents have pitched him very carefully, but he has remained patient, posting a 56-31 walk-strikeout mark. Bryant’s best tool is his plus-plus righthanded power, allowing him to launch towering shots over the light standard in left field or hit balls over the fence to the opposite field. He has adopted a wider base and a simpler approach at the plate this year, and he has impressed scouts with his ability to turn on inside fastballs or go the other way with sliders over the outer half. His plate discipline and ability to consistently barrel up a variety of pitches make him a safe bet to be at least an average hitter, and many scouts think he’ll be better than that. Bryant’s arm gives him another above-average tool. His athleticism gives him at least a chance to stick at third, although he’ll need plenty more repetitions to master the position. Some scouts project him as a prototypical right fielder. He has average speed and can be faster under way, and he has shown good instincts in right and center.

2013 MLB Draft: Pre-Draft Rumor Mongoose-ing Thread

mongoose
Skip the Mongoose, who hates twitter rumors.

Schedule

The 2013 MLB Draft starts at 6 pm CT, with coverage on MLBN kicking off an hour before that. The first two rounds take place today, with 3-10 coming tomorrow, and the remainder on Saturday. If this year is anything like last year, top players will go in the first few rounds, followed by a bunch of signable college seniors around rounds 5-10, followed by some more interesting names 11+.

We will keep you updated with analysis on all the Cubs picks throughout the draft.

 

Number 1 Overall

Still lots of uncertainty about tonight’s draft, as no one is certain what the Astros will do with the first overall pick. I think it’s safe to say that at the very least, the ‘stros are trying to use all of the time available to leverage a lower price tag out of a pick. There are rumblings that they will try to make a run at Sean Manea with pick #40, which would probably require someone to take a discount at #1.

 

That said, I don’t think it’s a given that they pass on anyone. In Jim Callis’s updated mock this morning, he has them nabbing the big hopped-up righty from Oklahoma.

For now, I’m sticking with Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray as the No. 1 choice. There’s no indication that his positive drug test for Adderall will affect the stock of BA’s top-rated prospect, and I’m told it’s not an issue with Houston.

Personally, I’m hoping they take Colin Moran, as has been rumored in the past, though Moran is undoubtedly a better fit for the Cardinals. That way the Cubs will have their choice of the “big three” prospects: Gray, Appel, and Bryant.

 

Appel to the Cubs?

Callis also passes along the rumor that the Cubs have been talking to Appel about a deal

There was a lot of buzz Wednesday evening that the Cubs were closing in on a deal with Appel at No. 2, which could mean: a) he’d subsequently try to scare off Houston; b) he’d see if the Astros could trump Chicago’s offer; or c) no agreement is imminent and this is just an attempt to increase his leverage.

My guess is that this is a leak from Appel’s camp in an attempt to pressure the Astros to pony up.

 

Possible Surprises

Peter Gammons reported last night that the Rockies may go with high school first baseman Dominic Smith at #3 overall.

 

Kiley McDaniel thinks this is just a leverage ploy

 

 

I don’t mind the Cubs staying out of that game. I’ve spent enough time in my life worrying that the Cubs will go cheap in the draft. Seems to me there’s plenty of other things the club could be doing today, like figuring out who will be available at pick 41.

 

Pick 41

It’s really difficult to project anything past the first 10 or so picks in the draft. Keep in mind that last year, after taking Alberto Almora #3 overall, the Cubs took 7 straight pitchers. I don’t think it’s safe to bet on that happening again, especially with the possibility that the Cubs take a big arm first overall, but the minor league pitching is still truly awful, so it could go either way. Cubs Den has a post up with some possible pitching targets for round two.  My advice is to watch for surprising names that drop out of round one. Keep BA’s top 500 handy.

 

Soundtrack For Stat-Lovers who Like Pavement

 

2013 MLB Draft: Jonathan Gray Tests Positive for Adderall

jonathangray

Does Adderall Add to the Fastball?

Two days ago, the news broke that Jonathan Gray was one of two players to test positive for Adderall in tests administered by MLB to the top 200 propects in the draft. Adderall is an amphetamine. There is a decent chance (I would say in the neighborhood of one in three) that Gray is selected by the Cubs with the second overall pick tomorrow, which makes me curious about this incident. Two observations:

ONE

The history of PEDs in MLB is littered with folks who convinced themselves that a particular drug would, in fact, have no (or even a negative) effect on player performance. In the early 90s, old-school commentators would routinely tell us that building muscle was a recipe for disaster, it couldn’t enhance hand-eye coordination and it made players less flexible and more injury prone. That reasoning may sound silly now, but trust me that this was a strongly-held belief by many for a number of years. More recently, a number of analytically minded folks have taken the position that steroids help to build muscle, but not fast-twitch muscles or lower body muscles which are necessary in baseball. This site is perhaps the best known proponent of that argument. I would also lump the “HGH isn’t scientifically proven to help” theory in with this school of thought. I’m aware of both these old-school and new-school “steroids don’t help” theories, and think they are probably wrong, just for the record.​

On the other hand, starting pitchers on speed? I find that bizarre. I was always under the impression that the historical use of greenies in baseball was primarily by position players dealing with the daily grind, to aid their reaction times when stepping up to the plate. Maybe also relievers, who were used more frequently in the past, and relied upon intensity and getting “up” for their the few batters they would have to face. Starting pitchers, though, have to pace themselves for long outings and are used on a regular schedule. What say you, overly-medicated, misanthropic readers? Does the use of speed by starting pitchers make sense? Was he perhaps just trying to cut weight to make himself more attractive to pro scouts?

TWO

I have exactly one friend who currently attends college. He was completely shocked when I told him that I had never used Adderall. In his opinion, everyone in college uses it during exam season, or when they have a big paper, due, or whenever else they need to actually accomplish something academically. Granted, he attends an SEC school (don’t make me retire, OV), but his impression was that it’s use is nearly universal. Is it possible that Jonathan Gray was just cramming for finals? If anything, the use makes Gray seem a little dumb; he should have known this test was coming. Other than that, I don’t see how this test should dissuade the Cubs from picking him. Keith Law has mentioned that he hears Theo prefers Gray to Mark Appel, and if that’s the case, I don’t think there is a reason to pass on him with the #2 pick.

 

Random Draft Notes

  • The Draft starts tomorrow and runs through Saturday. We at OV will have complete “analysis” of all the Cubs picks, so stay tuned. Also check out the archives for previous takes on the top prospects.
  • I have previously noted that some scouts think Appel could feasibly pitch in the Major Leagues this September. For those who were skeptical of such an aggressive timetable, note that not one but two college pitchers from the 2012 draft are currently in big league rotations. Kevin Gausman (#4 overall) has started three times for the Orioles, and Michael Wacha (#19) twice for the Cards. I’ll grant that the Cubs are likely to be less aggressive than either of these two contenders, but Appel is at least as advanced as either of those two pitchers.
  • Keith Law’s latest podcast, in which he interviews Jim Callis regarding the draft, is worth a listen. Both recount the horrors of having to analyze the shocking Hayden Simpson pick on live TV.

Cespedes, Darvish, and Puig, Oh My!*#&%!

puigYoenis Cespedes hit two home runs for the A’s Tuesday night. Yasiel Puig hit two home runs for the Dodgers. Yu Darvish didn’t pitch, but no matter, he’s still on pace for 320+ strikeouts this year.

The Cubs’ plan following the 2011 season was to make a run at a slew of international free agents. That started with Darvish, an Iranian-Japanese phenom whose posting from the NPB had been anticipated for years. Word leaked out that the Cubs had made a competitive bid, but hopes were quickly quashed in December when we learned that the Rangers won the right to negotiate with him for in excess of $50 million dollars. Later we found out that the Cubs had come in second for those rights, having bid over $35 million less than the Rangers. It made sense, the Rangers were contending for championships and needed a frontline starter, while the Cubs were likely looking at a longer rebuilding process… And as it turns out, three high profile Cuban prospects have defected! And, yes, Cubs are very interested in acquiring all three!

In February, the Cubs signed Gerardo Concepcion, and there were rumors that an agreement had been reached with Jorge Soler for around $30 million. Cespedes signed with the A’s for 4 years/ $36 million, but he was older, and the Cubs were facing a long rebuilding process, so a four year deal didn’t make that much sense. Later we found out that the Cubs had come in second for Cespedes, offering 6 years and $36 million. The A’s had blown everyone else out of the water in the expectation that someone else would offer in the neighborhood of 6 years/ $60 million.

In June, word leaked out that yet another young Cuban had defected, and was attempting to sign before the imposition of an international free agent spending cap in July. Yes, the Cubs were interested. Shortly after, though, we heard that Yasiel Puig signed with Dodgers for in excess of $40 million. It made sense, the Dodgers had just been sold, the new owners were anticipating a monster of a local tv deal, and had dollars in search of a place to spend them. No word on what the Cubs offered, but I think it’s safe to assume that they came in second.

Fast forward to the present. Yu Darvish is one of the best three or so pitchers in baseball. Cespedes has a .277/.343/.499 line in 700+ plate appearances while splitting time in left and center. Yasiel Puig ripped through the minors and is looking like he’s up for good. Jorge Soler has been one of the better players… in the Florida State League.* Gerardo Concepcion is… I have no idea where he is, actually, and I have no desire to figure it out. It’s all very frustrating. And perhaps the most frustrating part, is that there’s no one to be frustrated with. The Rangers, Dodgers, and A’s were all way out of step with the rest of the league in how they valued these players. In any other year the Cubs might well have ended up with all three, and the path to contention would look pretty damn clear right now. Instead, we are stuck squinting at minor league box scores, mulling over the implications of Jonathan Gray’s positive test for Adderall, and hoping to squeeze a prospect out of someone at the trade deadline.

*This is not a knock on Soler. By all accounts, he’s a good player. Baseball America ranked him ahead of Puig as recently as February, and he is a year younger. If everything goes swimmingly, next year Soler will be attracting the same type of attention as Puig. As of tonight, though, Soler is plodding along in the low minors while Puig has beaten down the door.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (23-32) at LA of AAA Angels (25-33)

seriespreview

The Cubs head to LA for a short 2 game series against the Angels, who are fresh off being swept in a four game series by the Astros. I’m not kidding. Seven of the Astros’ twenty-one wins this year have come against the Angels, which tells you pretty much all you need to know about how their season has gone.

Team Overviews

ML ranks listed

  Angels Cubs
wRC+ 103 (10th)  93 (20th)
BSR -2.2 (21st)  -.7 (17th)
UZR -12.8 (27th)  4.9 (11th)
DRS -41 (29th) -3 (20th)
SP FIP- 107 (20th) 92 (7th)
RP FIP- 98 (18th) 109 (26th)

The big story for the Angels has been the poor performance of Josh Hamilton, who got slapped with a Kubel comp by Dave Cameron after his abysmal start. The power hasn’t been there this year, and neither has the BABIP (.259 to date), which makes for a poor combination when paired with his characteristic free-swinging ways. Their big signing from last season, Albert Pujols, has also struggled, though he’s been battling plantar fasciitis throughout the year.

I was pretty shocked by the defensive numbers for the Halos, though they have been missing center-fielder extraordinaire Peter Bourjos since the beginning of May. The defensive metrics have been decidedly unimpressed with the way that Trout has filled in for him, which is given perhaps a shred of credibility based on the fact that Trout checked in at around 240 pounds for spring training. On the other hand, Trout is still stealing bases at an impressive clip.

Injury Updates

Aside from a missing Bourjos and a hobbled Pujols, the Angels are also without proven closer Ryan Madson, still recovering from Tommy John surgery last April. Ernesto Frieri has been just fine "filling in", though he struggles with control and induces fewer ground balls than just about anyone you will ever see (25% for his career).

Pitching Matchups

The Cubs get Jered Weaver tonight, who missed about a month and a half with an injury to his non-throwing arm, but looked good in his first game back. Weaver has been dealing with declining velocity for some time now, though it’s possible that the time off has helped him in that regard. Tomorrow it’s Jason Vargas, who doesn’t seem to do anything well except outpitch his peripherals.

The Cubs will send Scott Feldman tonight, who has been great, despite my distaste for his signing this offseason. Matt Garza continues his league-wide showcase tour tomorrow night.

Random News and Notes

  • Starlin Castro has been moved down to 7th in tonight’s lineup. The sad thing is that I'm not inclined to argue, even with this putrid group of hitters.
  • It appears that MLB is going to suspend players linked to Biogenesis, including a potential 100-game suspension for Ryan Braun. Not sure how that works, given that his previous suspension was overturned, but it could kickstart a selloff in Milwaukee. It will be interesting to see if any other names come out of this scandal, which has the potentially to single-handedly alter the results of every fantasy league in the country.
  • Carlos Quentin faces the Dodgers tonight for the first time since the fertilizer hit the fan with Greinke back in April. It will be interesting to see if Uncle Ted plunks him, or leaves it up to someone with a better fastball, like Kenley Jansen.

Anthony Rizzo Signs Extension With the Cubs

Anthony Rizzo has signed a long term extension with the Cubs. Ken Rosenthal has the details. The deal is for at least seven years (including 2013) and $41 million, which includes what would have been Rizzo's first free agent season in 2019. In addition, it contains two club options which would bring the total contract to 9 years and $68 million, with escalators that could potentially increase that total to $73 million.

RizzoMy off the cuff reaction to the deal is that the Cubs received the bulk of the upside here. It's certainly possible that Rizzo doesn't pan out the way the Cubs hope (think early Carlos Pena), but at approximately $6 mill per season, it won't be a lead weight on the franchise. In a medium case (think Adam LaRoche), it's a fair deal, and shouldn't be difficult to move. If Rizzo continues to improve, however, (think Derrek Lee) this could be an absolute steal. In 2020, I would venture to guess that a 2 yr/ 29 million dollar deal will look reasonable for a 30 year-old first baseman near the prime of his career. 

On track to be a super two player, Rizzo would have had four years of arbitration (2015-2018). I don't think it's a stretch that in the medium case or better scenario he would have earned nearly all of the $41 million that's guaranteed in this deal in those four arbitration years plus one year of free agency, in which case the option years are gravy for the organization. Stay tuned to OV for more analysis on the deal.

2013 MLB Draft: Could the Cubs Force the Astros to Pass on Appel?

mark-appel-ap2Kiley McDaniel has posted his first mock for the 2013 MLB Draft and passes along some potentially interesting machinations from behind the scenes. Dmick has previously addressed the possibility that the Astros could once again pass on Mark Appel, but McDaniel doesn’t think it will happen:

Last year, there was a large top group of talent with varying price tags that allowed the Astros to be creative. This year there’s a top group of two players: Appel & Gray. Appel has a better frame, arm action, delivery, track record and projectability along with a wider base of skills. Right now they may be comparable prospects, but scouts prefer Appel going forward… With a weaker crop to spend savings later from this pick, Gray will need to come in well below Appel’s price tag to get serious consideration here, but he doesn’t have the motivation to do that as he’ll get paid just fine going second.

If the Astros have the same feelings as McDaniel, they will probably take him first overall and offer slot value. However, McDaniel also hears that the Cubs are very high on Appel, which could push them towards drastic actions:

This could create a situation where the Cubs could float a full slot or above slot number to Appel to see if they can play the signability game to get him slide to them.

The signability card used to be wielded by draft candidates with some regularity in order for them to get more money, but the current CBA makes that very difficult. Could the Cubs and Appel feasibly strongarm the Astros into passing on Apple under the current system? I do think it’s possible.

For this exercise, let’s assume that the Astros would offer slot value for Appel, but no more (keeping in mind they set a hard line at significantly less than slot for their top pick last year). If the Cubs really wanted to go all in, it would have to look something like this:

1. Make it clear to Appel that they will offer significantly more than #1 slot value.

This would require significant sacrifice on the part of the Cubs. The difference between the slot value of the #1 and #2 picks is about $1.1 million. The Cubs could offer up a 5% overslot for their entire draft budget (approximately $0.5 million) to close that gap to $0.6 million. In addition, they would need to essentially punt on other early selections in the draft. The slot value of their second pick is $1.4 million. Taking an extremely signable college senior at that slot would allow them to devote nearly the entirety of that money to an Appel offer and substantially top the slot value for the #1 overall pick. They could do the same for a combination of their third and fourth round picks, or their fourth through seventh picks, or fifth through tenth, etc…

2. Convince Appel to take a hard line with the Astros.

Appel is advised by Scott Boras, which is really all that needs to be said. The Appel/Boras duo played hardball last year, and could well do the same this year if given assurances by the Cubs. They have limited leverage, but not none. No team wants to risk giving up a year’s worth of development time on a prospect when there are other good options available.

Would it be worth it for the Cubs to sacrifice #41 overall to “move up” from #2 to #1? Historically, yes. In the 2013 MLB draft? I have no idea. If Appel really grades out that much better than Gray, it’s probably a decent bet. To take some recent examples, is upgrading from (#2) Dustin Ackley to (#1) Stephen Strasburg worth (#41) Chris Owings? Of course. Is it worth (#40) Tyler Skaggs or (#42) Garrett Richards? Still yes. How about upgrading from Danny Hultzen to Gerrit Cole (prior to Hultzen’s injury)? Is it worth (#40) Jackie Bradley Jr.? Maybe not.

A Banner Year For International Free Agents

 

DEPORTE

If we are judging by their names, that is. And I definitely am. We’re still a couple of months away from the beginning of the signing period, but this fanpost over at the Minor League Ball/ MLB Bonus Baby juggneraut is well worth your attention, at the very least to bookmark now so you can convincingly scoff at Cub signings when they happen. (Smaykin Gonzalez? Pfft, no way does that guy stick at shortstop). The wonderful collection of names there makes me even more upset at the spending limits imposed on international free agents. How great would it be to receive daily updates from Dmick and company on Obispo Aybar-Lara, Micker Adolfo Zapata, and Yeltsin Gudino? 

TheAncientMariners had this to say about Venezuelan shortstop Gleyber Torres, whom Kiley McDaniel previously reported as connected to the Cubs (potentially for over $2M of their allotted $4.6M in available funds):

Torres is a polished player with a high floor, and though he doesn’t offer much projection, what he is right now is already pretty good. A smooth defender with above average arm strength and innate natural instincts on the infield, Torres is exactly what you would want in a shortstop prospect. Offensively, he has a clean swing and shows patience and a good approach at the plate. Scouts see Torres as being the type of hitter who could hit for average while adding 15-20 homeruns a year. Torres only below-average tool is his lack of pure footspeed (7.02), but he has much better range than one would expect from a player with that kind of 60-time.

This is becoming a theme with this front office, targeting polished players who lack flash (Alberto Almora, Frandy De La Rosa, Gerardo Concepcion, etc…). Not that surprising, as the A’s and Red Sox have famously employed this kind of strategy for years.

Cubs Groundball Rate: Snorting Bosio’s Magic Sinker Dust

Villanueva StachePrior to the season, I was set to write about how the Cubs were gradually amassing a bunch of fly-ball heavy pitchers. I never ended up getting around to it, but I'm not one to let a mediocre (or wrong) idea die, so I'll give you the condensed version:

From 2010 to 2012, among pitchers with at least 280 innings pitched, Travis Wood had the lowest groundball percentage (32.6%) of anyone in the league. On the same list, Scott Baker ranked 9th (35.0%) and Carlos Villanueva 11th (35.8%). This isn't an accident, the Cubs like targeting guys with favorable strikeout to walk ratios and players of that ilk that are available for a reasonable price tend to give up a ton of fly balls. In large part, this doesn't bother me. If the choice is between taking a chance on big K/BB guys and groundballers who are incapable of generating swings and misses, I'll take the former most of the time. Further, if you believe the two idiots with a stats package, the whole fly-ball thing is no big deal, as extreme fly ball pitchers tend to yield lower home run rates. However, there is probably a large dollop of selection bias baked in to that observation, making it's application dubious to the marginal talents in question. 

As we move into May, my "wisdom" from February looks downright silly. The Cubs groundball rate is third highest in the league at an astonishing 49%. Granted, this rotation has featured a lot less Baker, but plenty of Wood and Villanueva. And the uptick in groundball rates can be seen throughout the rotation.

  Groundball% K-BB%
  2013 Career 2013 Career
Jeff Samardzija 55.4 43.5 21.0 12.1
Carlos Villanueva 53.4 39.5 15.5 12.4
Edwin Jackson 55.0 44.1 10.9 8.6
Travis Wood 38.4 33.0 9.7 10.5
Scott Feldman 55.7 46.8 0.0 5.6

The league average for ground-ballers is typically in the neighborhood of 44%, with the 90th percentile at around 52%. That's right, the Cubs have four starters currently generating ground balls at elite levels. The 2012 Indians are green with envy. 

Of the five, Carl Newhouse's change is the most pronounced. I can't remember a pitcher who has changed his batted ball profile as drastically. Guys like Matt Garza and Brandon McCarthy get a lot of credit for increasing their ground balls, but they went from the high thirties to around the mid-fourties. In truth, that's probably not a bad bet for where Villanueva ends up settling, but even in a small sample the increase is impressive. Brooks's fancy pitchfx decoder shows that he has steadily increased in usage of his sinker since adding it to the mix in 2011.

Samardzija's rate is the other that jumped out at me. Unlike Villanueva, F7 doesn't seemed to have changed much in the way he mixes his pitches, nor is there a noticeable difference in the vertical movement on his pitches, so there's not an easy explanation for the increase. One thing to note, though, is that pitchfx thinks that his vertical release point has dropped this year. That change could result in him generating more groundballs based on pitch locations lower in the strike zone.

Last year I made the observation that Samardzija seemed to have transformed himself into Yovani Gallardo: lot's of K's, more walks than you would like, and an average ground ball rate. If Samardzija keeps pitching the way he has in 2013, I don't know that there's a good comparison available. Perhaps Yu Darvish, or even a wilder version of (gulp) Felix Hernandez. The peripherals have been outstanding for Samardzija thus far in his continuing drive for the big bucks.

Keep in mind that it is still early to look at these numbers. Ground ball rates tend to stabilize at around 200 batters faced, and none of the starters are there yet (Samardzija is closest at 157, while Feldman had only 99 prior to his outing on Wednesday). And the fact that the numbers are up for everyone on the team may indicate a bias in batters faced or the environment. Nonetheless, I am truly impressed by the changes thus far, and they definitely bear watching as the season goes on. The Cubs have said they want their pitchers to induce more ground balls, but they also want to take more walks, win more games, and all manner of assorted fantasies. In this case, it may be working.chris-bosio

Jim Deshaies is Trying Not to Scare Anyone

Carson Cistulli has posted a short interview with new Cubs color commentator Jim Deshaies over at Fangraphs. In it, he talks about his transition to Chicago after 16 years in Houston and having to adapt to an audience that is unfamiliar with his style. He also talks about his philosophy in presenting analytics to a wide array of fans.

…I think the way the game has changed because front offices are using it- and it's very important, it's how they acquire players, who they sign, who they promote- it's our responsibility as broadcasters to kind of play along. I mean, you don't want to bury your head in the sand and pretend it doesn't exist…

I really enjoy Deshaies, and the interview is worth a listen. The only portion of the interview I take issue with is when he says that he's very similar in style to Bob Brenly.