GW – Page 15 – Obstructed View

Edwin Jackson Signs

Patrick Mooney was first with the news, and the usual suspects seem to be in agreement, though we at Obstructed View reserve the right to retract any and all free agent signing stories up until opening day. The deal is 4 years, $52 million and does not include a no-trade clause, per Heyman.

Brief thoughts on the deal, in the context of the entire offseason:

The Cubs seem determined to avoid a repeat appearance of the overwhelming stream of awful starters that were trotted out at the end of last season. The future just got a little dimmer for Chris Rusin, Jason Berken, Justin Germano, Aaron Miles and literally thousands of others of an approximately equal talent level at throwing a baseball.

The Cubs seem to be keen on avoiding acquiring this desperately-needed pitching depth via trade. There are some reasonably interesting names out there: Rick Porcello has been floated in a number of deals, John Ely (who inexplicably tore up the PCL last year) was acquired by the Astros for very little… Minor league mavens will undoubtedly be pleased by this stance.

Edwin Jackson didn't like the offers he received last offseason, turning down 3 years, $27 million from the Pirates in favor of a 1 year, $11 million dollar deal from the Nationals. This type of "I'll try my luck next year" gambit almost never seems to pay off, but, wow, did it ever for Jackson. For me, the take home message is that smart baseball analysts won't hesitate to put a considerable amount of stock in a single season's worth of pitching stats. Jackson put up a career year with the Nationals, and the league believed in his numbers.

This may be just a personal hangup, but I'm having trouble getting past the statements made by Jed Hoyer after Scott Feldman signed (via Brett):

[Feldman] did sort of have one foot in, one foot out [of the rotation]. I think he felt like he was looking over his shoulder a lot. If he made a bad start, he might not necessarily make another one or might be in the bullpen. We certainly gave him the reassurance here: ‘You’re going to be a starting pitcher. You’re going to be in the rotation.’ [That] means a lot. It’s hard to perform when you’re always constantly worried about [your] job.

In my opinion, one does not simply tell Scott Feldman: "You're going to be in the rotation" unless Feldman has previously made it clear that Des Moines is, in fact, his favorite city in the world, and, yes, he wishes he had the chance to spend some more time there. This leads me to believe that some combination of the following things is true:

Jed has the conscience of used car salesmen.
The prices on Villanueva and Jackson/Anibal were lower than the Cubs expected them to be at the time of the Feldman signing.
Both of Scott Baker and Matt Garza are not doing so hot in the injury recovery department.
Other trades are coming. (Aisley speculated that Jeff Samardzija may be being shopped last night, and a shady supposed insider reported this to be the case, but no one in the mainstream media is saying this afaik.)
The Cubs' merry band of magical scouts really loves Scott Feldman.

I for one, will be really interested to hear whether the Cubs have given similar assurances to Villanueva.

Dmick has promised futher coverage later this evening, so don't touch that navigation toolbar!

In Andro Veritas

From PLOS One, Testosterone Administration Reduces Lying in Men:

In a double-blind placebo-controlled study, 91 healthy men (24.32±2.73 years) received a transdermal administration of 50 mg of testosterone (n = 46) or a placebo (n = 45). Subsequently, subjects participated in a simple task, in which their payoff depended on the self-reported outcome of a die-roll. Subjects could increase their payoff by lying without fear of being caught. Our results show that testosterone administration substantially decreases lying in men.

Individuals were dosed with testosterone or placebo and asked to roll the die once, then were payed a few euros (or not) based on the results of that roll. The researchers evaluated honesty of each group based on the collective payouts. Interestingly, the "juiced" group was quite a bit more honest.

Now, far be it from me to point and smirk while "integrity of the game" types wrap their collective heads around the possibility that illegal steroid usage could make baseball a more honorable game on the field. I am convinced now more than ever, though, that in The Bizarro World, PEDs are legal and everyone is just as obnoxious and pious about their respective views on the matter. Sportwriters write long diatribes criticizing non-juicing Eckstein-types:

…some say he doesn't have the commitment to his team, rarely lifting weights after games and between innings… has a questionable moral compass as evidenced by the frequency with which he steals second, not having earned it with an extra base hit… instead of trying to hit the ball as far as possible as was intended by Doubleday, he occasionally taps it in front of home plate and tries to scamper to the first base…

Meanwhile, bizarro bloggers defend the collectively-bargained rights of the players not to use steroids, while suggesting that maybe it's time to hire an unbiased third party to make judgement calls about balls and strikes instead of relying on the honor system.

DBacks Looking for SS, Veteran SP, 3B

Awhile back we were kicking around trade ideas for Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks. GM Kevin Towers' postseason press conference confirms much of our speculation:

Towers identified shortstop (no surprise), a veteran starter (mild surprise), third baseman (mild surprise) and bullpen help (no surprise) as his off-season wish list. I’m not sure if that’s in order of priority, but shortstop definitely belongs at the top of the list.

The article also confirms they are trying to make room for Adam Eaton in their starting outfield, leaving Kubel, Gerardo Parra, Chris Young, and maybe even Upton as potential trade bait. If the Cubs were willing, I think a Castro/Garza for Upton/Corbin framework would have legs.

OV Playoff Roundtable

If this past season has taught us anything, it's that Obstructed View should be your go-to source for any baseball-related predictions. As we prepare to watch the Red Sox, Indians, Marlins, and Phillies battle in the playoffs, it's time to update those. Aisley, DJ, and The Enigmatic AC were unavailable, which is probably a good thing because I'm tired of compiling. Forge on, intrepid baseball observers!

Predictions

	Play-Ins
	NL	AL
Berselius	Braves	Rangers
GW	Cardinals	Rangers
MB21	Braves	Rangers
Josh	Braves	Rangers
Vegas	Braves (62%)	Rangers (64%)
	Divisional
Berselius	Nats, Giants	Yanks, Tigers
GW	Nats, Reds	Yanks, Tigers
MB21	Braves, Reds	Rangers, Tigers
Josh	Nats, Reds	Rangers, A's
Vegas	Nats, Reds	Yanks, Tigers
	Pennant
Berselius	Nats	Tigers
GW	Reds	Yanks
MB21	Reds	Tigers
Josh	Nats	A's
Vegas	Nats	Yanks
	World Series
Berselius	Nats (DeRo>all)
GW	Yanks
MB21	Reds
Josh	A's
Vegas	Yanks

Four different World Series picks! Our diversity must be acknowledged.

General Thoughts on the Play-In Games, Semantic or Otherwise:

MB21: Adds excitement due to the one and done nature. Nothing has really changed regarding the playoffs. It's still an 8-team field. The only difference is that two teams in each league have to play game 163 to enter the field.

Josh: I don't like the word "play-in."

GW: I'm on board!

Most Overrated Team:

GW: The Nationals feel fluky to me. They have ridden career years from Ian Desmond, Adam LaRoche, Gio Gonzalez, and Danny Espinosa.

Josh: Yankees, but Texas has been floundering as well.

Berselius: Orioles

MB21: Yankees

Most Underrated Team:

Berselius: Braves

MB21: Reds

Josh: A's

GW: Cards (Ugh…)

Other storylines to be aware of for Cubs fans who stopped watching baseball three months ago:

Josh: Holy shit Adam Jones! Also, the A's have an Australian guy. WTF?

MB21: Dusty Baker (see below).

GW: Hey, loogit all those rookies on the A's! Bow to Kris Medlen, minor deity of second half fantasy baseball.

Berselius: I kind of stopped watching baseball three months ago, too.

Players you are excited see:

Berselius: Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera. I think I was the only Cubs fan who liked Prince Fielder when he played for the Brewers. I'm also excited to see Cabrera's comically awful defense at 3b.

GW: Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons, Bryce Harper

MB21: ~~Clayton Kershaw~~, Matt Cain, CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano

Josh: Adam Jones, post season flavored Nelson Cruz

Players you are disappointed not to see:

MB21: Starlin Castro

Berselius: Mike Trout. NL MVP Shawn Camp.

Josh: Trout – Sorry your team sucks, dude.

GW: Really, Walt Jocketty? You couldn't have used Billy Hamilton as a pinch-runner? Throw us a fucking bone, here.

Which team are you rooting for?

MB21: Yankees in the AL and the Braves in the NL.

Berselius: Nationals

Josh: Oakland

GW: Baltimore

Ex-Cubs Players you wish well or ill of:

Josh: Hope Demp does well, but I don't think this is Texas's year, again.

GW: Josh Donaldson!

Berselius: I wish Sammy Sosa well, and wish they would retire his number already. I wish all of the Cubs fans who took glee in Dempster's implosion on Wednesday ill.

MB21: I wish all of them well

Dusty Baker has been in the news due to recent health issues, do you want him to see him win it all?

MB21: I'd like to see him win it.

Berselius: I would not be unhappy to see him win, but I'm not necessarily pulling for him either.

Josh: Nah.

GW: Not in the least.

Thoughts on the TBS/MLBN/Fox Coverage:

Berselius: At least this will keep Joe Buck away from calling NFL games for a few weeks. (GW: This!)

Josh: Extremely annoying. I listen to the Gameday audio feeds.

MB21: Shit.

I hate baseball right now. Is there anything else to do?

Berselius: While sitting through a 5 hour delay in DFW on my way back from Japan, I picked up The Name of the Wind on GW's advice. Despite a shout-out in the acknowledgments to noted hack writer Kevin J. Anderson, it's been good so far. Movie-wise, if you have not seen The Cabin in the Woods, you should go buy/rent/stream it immediately.

Josh: Currently on my Kindle: "Fuckin' Lie Down Already" – Tom Piccirilli; "Belinda in the Pool" (Short story) – Douglas Clegg; "Feeding Ground" – Sarah Pinborough; One Buck Horror, Volume 5.

MB21: Dexter and Homeland air Sunday nights on Showtime at 8 and 9 pm respectively.

If you are really bored, check out some of Josh's ~~insects~~ snapshots from Phylum Arthropoda:

Female wolf spider with egg sac:

White-lined sphinx moth:

Seeking Rock Bottom: Pitcher K’s

Ahh… the Hendry Era. The Cubs were always winning, the best players were beloved by the media and treated with respect by the front office, player acquisitions were always based on sound analytical wisdom, and Order prevailed in its eternal conflict with Chaos. Wait, what’s wrong with these…?

/cleans fogged up sepia-tinted Transitions Lenses

It’s all this damn Texas sunlight. I can’t keep all these pages straight on my laptop.

/closes Baen Library fantasy ebook and goes back to spreadsheet

Oh, right. None of those things were true, but at least the pitching staff struck people out. Even after the utter destruction of the ’04 “OMG, Best Pitching Staff Ever”, the Cubs managed to remain solidly above average every year through 2009. All the names from those staffs are familiar, so I won’t bother going through the all the Lillies, Gorzelannies, and lack of Dolises. I’m not here to talk about the past. I’m here to talk about the trend. That ominous trend. From a peak in 2003 to a valley from which purchase may never be gained. That horrible, encroaching darkness that has been slowly stretching its tentacles over the land. Dammit. Why does this ebook keep popping up? Must be some kind of fantasy-hobbit virus. Here is what I’m trying to lay out for you:

And you might not have heard about the minor leagues, I guess, if your wifi has been spotty lately or something. Mine has been great, though, so I don’t know what you are complaining about. I guess not everybody gets my kind of coverage. I’ve been there, though. Hell, I remember a time when “broad band” was a nothing but a musical genre. Groups of upstarts playing swing and the like. It was like big band, but instead of trombones they had Moogs. Gave it a prog feel, like ELP playing a Vegas high school prom. Never really took off; it was mostly a regional thing. Anyways, if you haven’t been paying attention, the minor league pitching sucks now, too, so it’s probably not getting better any time soon. Iowa is doing OK, but DJ told me I shouldn’t pay attention to them. And I trust DJ, even though he never links to his posts in the old thread…

All that wouldn’t even matter if the league would just get worse, but strikeouts are way up elsewhere. In fact, I’ve identified a key factor which indicates that they will stay up.

I reached out to Tom Ricketts for comment, but he was in a meeting with some sort of personal statistical guru. He emailed me later, though.

Oneiri Fleita Out

The Cubs’ front office restructuring continues. Last week, longtime scouting director Tim Wilken was promoted, or simply reassigned if you are of a cynical bent. Today, Bruce Miles breaks the news that fellow holdover Oneiri Fleita is out as VP of Player Personnel. Indefatigable Brett has a responsible rundown.

Irresponsible Speculation

Perhaps the front office googled him and realized that he had previously criticized Josh Vitters for not being aggressive enough at the plate. Or perhaps they already knew that and just needed to co-opt his international contacts before letting him go. Regardless, the only surprise to me is that this didn’t happen sooner.

*UPDATE*

The Sun-Times passes along the word that the Fleita won’t be leaving alone:

Sources said at least four more people who are veteran Cubs staffers in the player development and baseball operations departments will be let go as well.

(h/t: Berselius)

*UPDATE 2*

Randy Bush has survived. Holdover stats guy Chuck Wasserstrom is gone. Ari Kaplan has been retained as a consultant on the condition that he to moves to India and communicates strictly via teleconference and email.

(h/t: Aisley)

A Tale of Two Trade Deadlines

[Billy Beane and Kevin Towers] operate, as ballplayers do, without a fear of failure. This year Beane found too many phone calls that came his way that sounded like this: "I have interest in one of your players and this is what I'm going to give you for him."

"That's not deal-making," Beane said.

It's name-your-own price. The art of the deal has been replaced by the science of the deal…

I don’t know to whom Billy Beane was specifically referring to in the above quote, but I always imagine it was Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman, maybe even Jed Hoyer. I know it wasn’t Jeff Luhnow, who wasn’t a general manager when the quote was made, but I get the impression that had he been, it still wouldn’t apply.

There is only so much we can truly know about how a front office operates and does business, and just about all of it we deduce from outcomes. Who was drafted and signed? What trades were completed? To a lesser extent, the rumor mongers fill us in on who has been talking, but it’s always a little shady and a lot vague. For my money, this was the true genius of Moneyball, the book. Oh sure, the hook was the ascription of mythical powers to a handful of analytical techniques, but the meat was immersion inside a general manager’s world during free agency, the draft, and the trade deadline. Today’s hardcore baseball fan spends an inordinate amount of time putting himself in the GM’s shoes, but has surprisingly little information about what goes on there.* Many of our favorite analysts have even worked in front offices, but are silenced by unwritten codes of conduct and clearly written confidentiality agreements. They frequently tell us how much we don’t know, but rarely give specifics. The quote above is pulled from a rare gem written by Tom Verducci that puts those of us who care way too much at least in the neighborhood of the GM’s office. Here is another great one from Bloomberg Businessweek, of all places.

*One of my favorite all time experiences as a sports fan was attending NBA summer league games in 2005 in Minneapolis. My friends and I happened to sit directly in front of then Milwaukee Bucks GM Larry Harris during one of the games. For about two hours, we eavesdropped on conversations with colleagues and assistants as well as phone calls with people around the league. Harris talked about decisions he made in the draft (Ersan Ilyasova over Ryan Gomes because he was “younger and longer”), who he was regretting missing out on (“Kleiza is looking fantastic so far”), and other minutia. It was completely lacking in any groundbreaking information or scandalous gossip, and it was wonderful.

ThoyerMorph2 — If Theo and Hoyer had a child, he'd apparently look like Val Kilmer

Despite all this lack, my mind is convinced it has the full picture of who Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are and how they operate. They are misers that drive hard bargains. Not unfriendly, mind you, but cordial, professional, and uncompromising. They have absolutely no qualms about asking the moon for players that are obviously playing above their talent level, and they will relentlessly work the phones in search of a mark. Negotiating with them will not be easy or fun. You may get the impression that they know something that you don’t. “I mean, they have all that expensive analytical technology on their side … That has to count for something, right? For goodness sakes, former colleagues publicly worry about getting fleeced by Theo.” I imagine other GMs sigh when Theo or Jed gets on the phone. “I want what they are selling, but this isn’t going to be easy… Cancel all my golf outings between now and the deadline, this thing is gonna go down to the wire…I would rather be negotiating with Theo’s stalker, to be honest…”

Theo and Jed are driven by a singular, overriding goal: to acquire impact talent in a world where it’s increasingly unavailable. They recognize that their job depends on one thing only, turning this thing around as soon as possible. The public trust is not going to last long, so the sooner they can build a solid foundation, the better. To get there, a lot of things are going to have to break in their favor, and if a few business relationships are damaged in the process, that’s just the cost of doing business. “After all we ask of our players: to work harder then anyone else, do the little things, always compete, how can we possibly justify not doing the same? And if other teams don’t value their players as well as we do, whose fault is that?”

And despite his portrayal in Moneyball as all-knowing and a little bit conniving, I don’t think Billy Beane is like that. After all, there was a little pushback in the industry following the book’s publication, but it was more from talking heads than anyone else. Kenny Williams was unmercifully portrayed in the book, but it didn’t stop him from continuing to trade with Beane. In fact, Beane still pulls off as many trades as anyone, enough to make me think the portrayal was at least incomplete.

I think Beane is a lot like Jeff Luhnow. Luhnow was hired this past offseason by the Astros into a situation that makes for natural comparison with the Cubs. Both teams stink. Both are in big markets. Neither can count on imminent relief from the farm system. Both regimes are taking their teams through an organization-wide rebuilding process. Both seem to be on the cutting edge of analytics.

Yet Luhnow’s approach seems to contrast with Thoyer’s. He didn’t make a big splash in international free agency. Heaven help the team that tried to keep up with the cubs in chasing Cubans, but even in the capped IFA market the Astros eschewed the top prospects and signed a handful of lesser known players, whereas the cubs invested heavily in two big names. In the draft, the Cubs paid overslot for the guy they thought was the best player in the draft, while the Astros underslotted Carlos Correa with the first overall pick and as a result were able to lure supplemental pick Lance McCullers away from a strong commitment to Florida.

Which brings us to the trade deadline. Luhnow wasn’t doing much at all on Tuesday; he was already finished. My mind has him pegged as reasonable and easy to deal with. He knows he doesn’t have a lot to sell, so he takes advantage of any opportunity that presents itself. He moves early and isn’t concerned about winning every deal. After all, acquiring top prospects is pretty damn impossible these days. “Why not just focus on the prospects that we like, rankings be damned, get as many as we can, and hope a few pan out. Instead of wasting time haggling, lets make these moves as quickly as possible, put Cordero in the closer role, and guarantee ourselves the number one pick next year.” Other teams enjoy dealing with him and have a good idea of what to expect; they know they can turn to him first if they need to get something done quickly. Even famously abrasive internet personalities fawn over their experiences working with him.

These caricatures are certainly wrong to some extent. And Luhnow probably has stricter budgetary restrictions to consider than the Chicago duo. But I think there is a valid comparison to be made here. Both started out with poor major league talent. Luhnow made six in-season trades, Thoyer five (by my count, including the Byrd deal and buying Germano). The Astros acquired 14 prospects, the Cubs 5.

Which is the better strategy? My gut is going with Thoyer. I mean, I can’t believe they got Arodys Vizcaino for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson. On the other hand, with Thoyer types seemingly propagating around the league, maybe there’s an opportunity here for someone with a more old-school way of doing business.

Obstructed View’s Top 20 Cubs Prospects

1. Brett Jackson OF AAA

The Math — The 23 year old, 2009 1st round pick has a slash line .261/.339/.494. Astronomical strikeout rate (33.8%), but he still has a 114 wRC+.

The Good — Despite the K's Jackson has still been a productive player. He gets a ton of XHB's with his speed and has plenty of pop from CF. He steals bases very well. Plays a prime position and is one correction away from being a potential superstar.

The Bad — Strikes out like the love child of Adam Dunn & Mark Reynolds. His contact problem only seems to be getting worse. Walk rate is down as well.

Prediciton — Will finish the year in Iowa and maybe get a cup of coffee in Sept. Will win a starting job in 2013. Don't see a productive future for him unless he can get that K rate back to at least 25-30%. Likely hits in the .240/.320/.450 range. Maybe a couple 20/20 seasons.

2. Javier Baez SS A

The Math — 19 years old. 2011 1st Round Pick. Slash line .303/.375/.484. wRC+ 160. He already has 13 stolen bases and has been caught just once.

The Good – Everything so far. He is even more impressive when you watch him play. Great swing and works the count to his favor. High energy player.

The Bad — Doesn't walk as much as you would like. A little swing a miss to his game. Too early to see any major flaws.

Prediction — Who the hell knows with a younger player, but considering an entire industry has sprung up to provide this very guesswork let me say that the only thing keeping Baez out of the top spot is that I tend to skew towards guys who have done well at the upper levels of the minors vs potential and projection. That said, Baez seems to possess all the tools necessary to become a big leaguer. I think we see him in Daytona next year or maybe in AA if he really takes off. Scouts believe he'll be moved to 3rd base, but he has more than enough bat to play there.

3. Jorge Soler OF AZL

The Math –– 20 years old. 2012 Int'l Free Agent. Huge contract.

The Good — Scouts love him. He looks like a ballplayer.

The Bad — Nobody has seen him play yet. Its all projection.

Prediction — MB and I talked about not putting guys like Pierce Johnson or Almora on the list even though by virtue of having a heartbeat Johnson would be a top 5 arm in our system but I couldn't resist with Soler. I was a major bandwagon supporter for this guy and I like the fact that the scouts that BA & KG talk to both thought this guy was a top 10 pick. So lets just be conservative and say he will hit HR's the way Billy Hamilton steals bases.

4. Matt Szczur OF A+

The Math — 22 years old. 5th round in the 2010 draft. Large signing bonus. Improved walk rate leading to an OBP 100 points higher than his .273 average. Batting line is .273/.373/.383, which is good for a 126 wRC+. He's stolen 28 bases already this year and was voted the Midwest League's best defensive outfielder in 2011.

The Good — You have to love the fact that we are seeing an increase in walks as the level of competition increases. Especially considering this is his 2nd full year as a pro player. When you take a raw athlete like Szczur was out of college what you hope to see are adjustments as they focus and learn more about baseball and so far we have. Very good at stealing bases and plays an athletic CF.

The Bad — Not a lot of power so far. Have seen reports that talk about how he uses his athletic ability to get to balls in CF vs running the correct route.

Prediction — Both of us are pretty high on this guy right now. I could see him being the leadoff hitter going into the 2014 season.

5. Josh Vitters 3B AAA

The Math — 22 years old. Drafted in the 1st round of the 2007 draft. Batting .302/.356/.509 with a wRC+ of 115. He's improved his walk rate to 6.7% while his strikeout rate remains what it's been the last 2 years. His .207 ISO is his best since it was .219 in 2009 (hadn't topped .180 since).

The Good — His production never dropped off a cliff as he advanced. He has been young at every level so far. Blossoming at the right time. Scouts have always raved about his swing.

The Bad — Never shown this kind of production before. Defense still a question mark at 3B and will never hit enough to be a force at 1B. Walk rate is still low. While he's young he's been in the minor leagues since 2007. Age is important, but so is service time. On the plus side, he's never stalled at any level.

Prediction — Call me (dylanj) a Vitters believer. I think we have found a guy who will give us league average or better production at the league minimum for the next several years. Vitters wasn't a reach at 3, scouts always loved him (said he was the best high school bat in the country) and I think he will prove them right starting in 2013 when he locks down the starting 3B job.

6. Jeimer Candelario 3B A-

The Math –– 18 years old. 2010 International Free Agent. Born in the US, but moved to Dominican Republic. Baseball America says if he'd stayed in the US he'd have been drafted in the 1st round in the draft last month. Instead, the Cubs got him for $500,000, which is a bargain compared to what a team would have spent in the draft. All he's done so far is crush professional pitching. He's batting .337/.379/.517, which is good for a wRC+ of 174.

The Good — Everything so far. He's killed it at every level. One of the youngest players for his team at every level as well.

The Bad — Only been at two levels. Has a stiff body and won't stay at 3B so will need to keep hitting to keep value in LF or 1B.

Prediction — This guy has as much potential as anybody in our system. He has what you want to find which is great stats to verify the love scouts show him. He is also doing it at a young age. He's too far away to make any MLB debut prediction but like Baez he has the tools needed to be an impact player.

7. Junior Lake SS AA

The Math — 22 years old. International Draft. He's hitting .286/.335/.404 (104 wRC+). He walked a lot early in the season and flashed a lot of power, but has since reverted to the guy who doesn't walk much and doesn't hit for much power. Still 22 and already in AA though.

The Good — At times has flashed about every tool you can. Incredible physical makeup. Strongest arm in the Cubs system IF or OF.

The Bad — Has never put together a complete season. Doesn't walk enough. Still a poor SS.

Prediction — Really hard to say. I think the Cubs give him another year as a position player to make it or flame out before moving him the mound. He has a absolute cannon for an arm.

8. Dan Vogelbach 1B AZL

The Math — 19 year old drafted in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft. All he's doing is hitting .331/.391/.629 (156 wRC+). Not even 100 plate appearances in his career so far so it's difficult to know how good he really is, but the guy can hit.

The Good — Scouts loved the bat coming out of the draft. Has hit so far. Lost some of the weight he had as a HS player.

The Bad — He's still a fat, questionable defensive 1B playing in the NL. Which means he needs to hit like a motherfucker to ever matter.

Prediction — He hits well enough next year that he becomes a trade chip to an AL team and the Cubs move him.

9. Gioskar Amaya SS A-

The Math –– He posted a .377/.417/.510 line last year in the AZL (136 wRC+), but that was in large part because of .458 BABIP. He's been at Boise this season (minus one game at AAA) and has seen his BABIP dip nearly 100 points, but he's increased his walk rate slightly and has about the same strikeout rate. Despite the much lower BABIP, Amaya is hitting .306/.359/.482. That's good for a .399 wOBA and a wRC+ (151) even better than last year. Not a slugger, but has an ISO of .176.

The Good — Hits the ball very well. Has produced everywhere he has been so far.

The Bad — Not a lot of power there. Needs to improve the walk rate.

Prediction — Peoria next year.

10. Ben Wells SP A (disabled list)

The Math — 19 year old drafted in the 7th round of the 2010 draft. Only 2.2 BB/9 in his first taste of pro ball last season and a nice 3.51 FIP. This season he'd increased his strikeout rate and also decreased his BB/9 below 2. He was having a fantastic season. He only had 3 starts this year last 5 innings or longer (longest was 5.2 innings).

The Good — All his advanced stats are trending in the right direction even as he moves up in the system. Adding velocity to his pitches. Really heavy sinker could play well in Wrigley if he ever gets there.

The Bad — His elbow has exploded. Don't know if we will get the same guy back.

Prediction — We won't really know what we have here until 2014.Keep your fingers crossed.

11. Welington Castillo C AAA

The Math — 25 year old international free agent. He's been on the Cubs 40-man roster since 2010 and is more than likely out of options after this season. Batting .247/.395/.393 this year in AAA. Last year in AAA he accrued a lot of his value through power (.238 ISO), but this year it's been his ability to get on base (.153 ISO). He's been in AAA for parts of seasons going back to 2008.

The Good — Has done about all you can in the minors by being a productive guy year in and year out. Had at taste of MLB action.

The Bad — May not be better than Clevenger. Probably not an everyday catcher.

Prediciton — Should form a good tandem with Clevenger once Soto leaves. Expect to see him up full time starting next season.

12. Marco Hernandez SS A-

The Math — 19 year old international free agent. His .861 OPS in rookie ball last season (and his position) is why he's here. He's slumped this season. In 2008 the Cubs rookie team had Starlin Castro and Junior Lake split time and both made the league's top 20 prospects for Baseball America. In 2011 they had a couple other shortstops splitting time who made the same list in Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez. He has potential, but hasn't hit well after the promotion this year.

The Good — Best true SS in our system. Still young for his level.

The Bad — Has been pretty much awful this year.

Prediction — Will probably head back to Peoria once Baez gets promoted.

13. PJ Francescon SP A+

The Math – 23 year old drafted in the 40th round of the 2011 draft. He had an excellent pro debut last year striking out over 27% of the batters and walking under 5%. Strikeout rate has dropped to 15.8% in High A and the walk rate remains solid at just over 6%. He allowed only 4.7 hits per 9 in Peoria this year, but it's jumped to 9.2 in Daytona. He's a little old for Daytona, but was a late round pick who completed 4 years of college.

The Good — Dominated Peoria earlier this year. Stuff seems to be improving.

The Bad — Hasn't been nearly as good in Daytona so far. Small sample size but a 5.94 K/9 isn't going to cut it.

Prediction — Will continue to be the best healthy starter we have by default until some of 2012 guys get their feet wet. Will probably start the year in Daytona next season.

14. Alberto Cabrera RP AAA

The Math — The 23 year old international free agent was a starter last season and not a very good one. He was converted to the bullpen this year and there's really only two things you need to know: he's thrown only 45.1 innings between AA and AAA and his K-BB% is .25. He has struckout 30.9% of the batters he faced this season and walked (plus hit by pitches) 5.9%. This is AA/AAA, but to give you an idea how good this is, the best reliever in history (Mariano Rivera) had his best season in 1996 and his K-BB% was .226. I'm not comparing him to Mo. That would be silly. I'm just providing a reference point for those unfamiliar with a good K-BB%.

The Good — Has been totally filthy since moving the bullpen. Video game numbers. Keith Law described his fastball as one of the best he's seen from any prospect period. 97 mph with plus plus sink.

The Bad — It's only been about 50 IP so we don't have big track record here. Law also said he lacked a true secondary pitch.

Prediction — We will see him in the pen this year.

15. Ronald Torreyes 2B A+

The Math — 19 year old international free agent was the high upside player the Cubs received in the Sean Marshall trade. His only bad stint up to this season was 68 PA in 2010. He then tore that league up last year and had a 144 wRC+. He got off to a slow start this year, but has started hitting of late (season wRC+ of 91). He's young for Daytona too. His 4.6% walk rate in A ball last year has jumped to 7.6% this year in the more difficult league. His strikeout rate is just 6.6% and he's been a victim of BABIP this season (.240).

The Good — Has really hit at every level despite being young. Walk rate improved this year.

The Bad — It seems that his bat fell of a cliff this year but his BABIP is .240. Its always been over .350 before this season.

Prediction — I'm still a big believer in this guy's bat. Before this season his career #'s were damn similar to Starlin Castro's. He's a long way from the majors but I think he is the best 2B prospect we have. I hope he gets a crack at AA next season but wouldn't be surprised if they make him repeat the level.

16. Michael Burgess OF AA

The Math –– The 23 year old was drafted in the 1st round by the Washington Nationals in 2007. The Cubs acquired him for Tom Gorzelanny. Burgess has been an above average hitter his entire career and this year in AA is no different. His .368 wOBA is good for a 126 wRC+. He got an 87 PA taste of AA in 2010 with the Nationals and struckout in 30% of his plate appearances. This year it's down to 15.9% and he walks in over 9% his plate appearances. He has the organization's strongest arm in the outfield and while his power is down a bit this year, Jim Bowden once called it "thunderous".

The Good — Been productive at every level. Cut down the K's. Always had a decent walk rate.

The Bad — Repeating AA. Old for the level. Might be an org type player.

Prediction — Burgess is a hard guy to evaluate. On the numbers alone he seems pretty legit but the fact that nobody like BA or BP talks about this guy might mean scouts see something we don't. He needs to head on up to Iowa.

17. Arismendy Alcantara SS A+

The Math — 20 year old international free agent is hitting .306/.341/.453 in a league with a .701 OPS. His wOBA and wRC+ is .367 and 128. Alcantara joins Javier Baez, Junior Lake, Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez on our list of shortstops. The Cubs are rich in talent up the middle. Arguments could be made for Alcantara being higher on this list.

The Good — Terrific offense for the Florida State League at a premium position. Excellent basestealer.

The Bad — I've never heard anyone say his defense was even average. Scouts don't seem to be that excited by him.

Prediction — He gets bumped up to AA next season.

18. Logan Watkins 2B AA

The Math — 22 year old drafted in the 21st round of the 2008 draft is from the home state (KS) of the two people writing this post. With the exception of 2010, Watkins numbers have been above average everywhere he's played. He has a solid walk rate of 11.4% and a decent strikeout rate (16.8%). He doesn't hit for a lot of power (career .378 slugging), but he does have above average speed. He's stolen 72 bases in his career and already has 16 this year (5 shy of the most he's had in his career in a season). He wasn't a great base-stealer early in his career, but the last 2 seasons he's stolen 37 bases and only been caught 9 times. After hitting all of 1 home run in his first 3 seasons he's muscled up and combined to hit 9 over the last 2.

The Good — Plays multiple positions. Does a little bit of everything offensively.

The Bad — Doesn't excel at anything. May not hit enough to make the bigs.

Prediction — Watkins could turn out to be a nice utility player. We will see him in Iowa in 2013.

19. Zach Rosscup RP AA

The Math –– The 24 year old was drafted by the Rays in the 28th round of the 2009 draft. He's 24 already and hasn't even thrown 150 innings in his career, but the results have been there. Prior to this season he had FIPs of 2.38, 2.85, 1.83 and 3.50 at his various stops. He hasn't allowed a run this season, but has only thrown 9 innings.

The Good – Was pretty good as a starter in Daytona last year and got hurt. Just recently made his debut working out of the pen so far this year and has been filthy. Has pitched well every at every level he has been at.

The Bad — Old for his level. Has trouble staying healthy.

Prediction — If he can stay healthy and pitch like he has he will be the greatest pitcher of all time. This has a 0.00001% chance of happening. Let's just hope he can stay healthy for now.

20. Trey McNutt SP AA

The Math — The 23 year old was drafted in the 32nd round of the 2009 draft. He quickly took to pro ball and dominated the low minors (through High A). A big warning sign sounded in his brief 15.2 inning stint at AA as his strikeout rate plummeted from over 10 to just 7.5. Despite that, his career numbers were awesome to that point and he was ranked as the 48th prospect in baseball entering 2011. Since then he's remained at AA and has seen his strikeout rate drop 3 years in a row while his walk rate has gone the wrong direction too.

The Good — Still has good stuff as I've heard the fastball is still in the mid 90's with a big breaking ball. This should translate well to the bullpen.

The Bad — Just totally fell off this year. At best we are looking a pen arm.

Prediction — Becomes a serviceable relief pitcher. In Chicago by next year. Could pitch in the upper 90s out of the pen.

Will The Cubs Resemble Hoyer’s Padres?

Those of us who follow the Cubs a little too closely know by and large what to expect from the 2012 version: mediocrity will hold sway. Bountiful and unabated mediocrity. The question that has kept us on the edge of our seats over the past roughly five months is: “how will the new front office put its stamp on this team?” The answer is still unclear, but seems to involve terms like “incrementally” and “deliberately.” Since we’ve been talking about playing time around here lately (there’s still time to enter the OVBlog over/under challenge), I decided to poke around the pasts of our front office heroes and see if anything could be learned about what to expect on the field.

Playing Time Distribution

My first instinct in confronting questions like these is always to put my nose in a spreadsheet and take in the sweet numerical aroma. While Theo’s Red Sox never looked like anything resembling this year’s Cubs, Jed’s Padres are a fair comparison. They, like the Cubs, have been short on impact talent (on the offensive side, at least), and have experimented with a variety of players in trying to fill that void.

Hoyer took over the Pads following the 2009 season and kept a low profile. Despite a surprising run at the playoffs in 2010 and the splashy Anthony Rizzo trade the following offseason, his name was rarely mentioned in national circles right up until rumors of his imminent hiring with the Cubs started to swirl.

One of the nice things about Hoyer’s time with the Padres, for those of us trying to tease out his influence in the product on the field, is that longtime manager Bud Black was retained by the new GM. Any changes in playing time following Hoyer's arrival are likely to have been influenced (directly or indirectly) by Hoyer’s guidance than by the whims of a newly-arrived manager. As an initial look at the Hoyer-era Padres, I focused only on the offense, and compared the distribution of plate appearances for the two years pre-Hoyer to his two years with the club. The results are not altogether unexpected.

Lots of Experimentation, Few Iron Men.

Hoyer’s Padres weren’t shy about mixing it up on the field. In 2011, only Jason Bartlett managed 600 plate appearances; in 2010, that mark was reached by two players, Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley. There was thus lots of room for experimentation. In 2010 and 2011, the Padres averaged 12.5 players with between 150 and 550 PAs, as compared to 10.5 (slightly above league average) in the two years prior.

The distribution of these plate appearances ran the gamut of the player universe. Veteran “contributors” Ryan Ludwick and Miguel Tejada were acquired for the 2010 stretch run. Fringy younger players like Jesus Guzman, Kyle Blanks, and Tony Gwynn Jr. were given extended looks. Retreads like Jerry Hairston, Chris Denorfia, Jorge Cantu, and Alberto Gonzalez filled out the bench, and found their way on the field more often then one might hope. The Pads even managed a seemingly successful reclamation project in stealing underachieving Cameron Maybin from the Marlins.

One of the side effects of this mix and match strategy is that very few players ended up in the 1-49 PA bucket. In fact, the Padres had the fewest number of “1-49ers” in the league in ‘10 and ‘11, after being among the league leaders in ‘08 and ‘09. I’m not sure there’s a whole lot to make of this, and it may be due in part to limiting the at-bats of relief pitchers (always a good thing).

Implications for the Cubs

We have already seen the Cubs experiment in a variety of ways. Sabermetric darling David DeJesus looks to be the regular right fielder for the next two years. Ian Stewart is currently playing the role of reclamation project, and will most likely get a full season’s worth of at bats on the chance that he turns things around. The first baseman’s job, on the other hand, is currently PCL-oldster Bryan LaHair’s, and don’t be surprised if he only gets 200 PA to prove himself. Even then, someone not named Rizzo could very well be given a shot, especially if the young first basemen starts out cold in the PCL. If the Padres are any guide, I expect to see lots of turnover, time-shares, and chances taken in the years to come.

Worst Moves of the Epstein Era

Since opening day is here (well, not here, but somewhere), it seems like an appropriate time to catalog the numerous failures of the Cubs under The Epstein Regime. Sure, no actual games have been played, but it’s never too early to make like mb and don your three wolves tee and start excoriating optimistic chumps. After all, future blogging historians will surely one day glorify the prescient among us who sagely pointed to the moment when the plane diverted its course towards the mountain. What’s that? …Well, sure. Most people don’t care, but there must be a core few that tirelessly track the forecasts of anonymous internet users… Nobody, you say? Yeah, but still.

By way of reassuring readers regarding my temperament, none of these moves have put me into a full Ted Lilly-, Carlos Zambrano-, or H.L. Mencken-type fury. And objectively, these moves range probably range from “practically meaningless” to “that definitely only bothers you.” Nonetheless, annoying.

10. The bunting contest. How about a home run derby? When did that become out of the question?

9. Moving Samardzija to the rotation. Not likely to end well (and I needed ten of these).

8. The rise of the Regulartron. Yes, there is undoubtedly some money to be made here. But color me completely unconvinced that it outweighs the brand value of that time machine on the North Side. And nothing drives me crazier than the constant blather of these things.

7. Leaving WGN. Hasn’t happened yet, obviously. I am among those out-of-staters dreading paying for MLB Extra Innings because the Cubs left the sole remaining national affiliate in favor of a glorified SportsChannel/FoxsportsChicago/CSN. If they can work out a deal with the new NBC network or find another way around the regional restrictions, I will promptly redact, but there is a lot of downside here among casual fans in particular.

6. Trading Zambrano. Yeah, I know, the veterans were tired of him and that was the last straw and all the rest. But couldn’t we turn the page on The Hendry Era by getting rid of someone like oh, say:

5. Reed Johnson. No? OK, fine.

4. Caving on Theo’s compensation. I’m sure that some folks are completely enamored with Kurcz and Carpenter, but I’m not one of them. However, Bud was obviously reticent to step in here, due to the future consequences of his decision. Why not call his bluff? We know that Theo put on his lawyer pants and drew up a pretty good case, complete with the glaring absence of any precedent. What’s the worst that could happen? Losing “uberprospect” Josh Vitters? It would have been worth it on the off-chance that Bud decided to tell Lucchino and Co.: “You will take Michael Brenly and like it.”

3. Ryan Flaherty. There’s no space on the 40-man for a 25 year-old lefty-hitting middle infielder with some pop? Did all of Koyie Hill’s detached appendages require their own spot?

2. Sitting out free agency. A wise man once said, “The bottom line is you can’t go out and buy young players, there is no opportunity to do that anymore.” So, what exactly is the plan? It’s nice to say that the organization needs to rebuild from the ground up, but what does that really mean in practice? Developing homegrown talent takes years, especially if your current minor leaguers more or less stink, and your only hypothetical advantage is scouting and developing marginally better than everyone else. Sure, free agents are expensive. Thing is, they are likely to get more expensive as their supply dwindles due to teams increasingly coercing young talent to sign long-term deals. It’s not like the Cubs were reluctant to spend money this offseason, as they seem to have offered in the neighborhood of $100 million dollars for three Cubans (allegedly), a McDonalds, and a vocational high school in the Dominican Republic. It would have been nice to sign a few vets likely to still be contributors if and when the young talent starts coming up, instead of the Maholms and DeJesuses of the world.

1. Failure to put a specialized strategist on the bench. As far as I can tell, “smart” front offices around the majors swooned over Dale Sveum for his tendency to pore over spray charts. That’s all well and good, but is it so out of the question to put someone on the bench who is actually numerate? It’s not like no one has ever considered the effects of various individual strategies on seasonal basis. There would still be plenty of room for leader-of-men types that inspire confidence by instigating bean-ball wars. Theo and Co. had the capital to really take a chance here, and instead they went traditional with Sveum et al.; the bench remains sacrosanct and decidedly quant-free. What we did get was a voluminous manual full of corporate speak, to be read and digested by a group of functional illiterates. The Cubs Way indeed.